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NBA is coming up (1 Viewer)

There was a great thread about NBA last year. One of the primary contributors to it ran a site that crunched numbers really effectively. Search for it. I think it was in the Free For All forum.

 
The site is dailyfantasynerd...it was in beta last season so it was free. It's a subscription service now but it's really good.

Looking forward to doing some nights should be fun.

Choas Commish you jumping back in?

 
I kind of want to start playing other sports just to keep working on my general DFS skills. But man, I really don't like other pro sports.

 
I kind of want to start playing other sports just to keep working on my general DFS skills. But man, I really don't like other pro sports.
Kinda feel the same way outside of the NFL, I am a college sports fan. Watch a little MLB but stopped watching NBA years ago. So I think my DFS play will remain seasonal.

 
I kind of want to start playing other sports just to keep working on my general DFS skills. But man, I really don't like other pro sports.
Hoops is my first love. DFS NBA happens fast. You don't have days to consider matchups. You have a day, less than 24 hours, and injury news breaks minutes before tip off. It is fun if you love hoops, but I could see it being a hot mess if you don't. Playing cash games is not that much different than NFL understanding that slates run daily. To seriously play gpps, like your 100 lineup approach, it's pretty hard to have a real job. I'm fortunate to be a bum.

 
Everything Chaos said.

I can't fathom entering 100 lineups on even a semi-regular basis, but getting a little scratch in the game isn't too bad. You have to pay attention to late scratches. There are quite a few good Twitter feeds you can follow to get that information in almost real time though.

Scheduling is also a major issue that is alien to NFL daily players. Teams will occasionally play 4 games in 5 days, which assures healthy scratches all over the place. They play quite a bit of 3-in-4 as well, which also usually assures healthy scratches. Some teams/players are at risk of a healthy scratch in the 2nd game of a back-to-back, which happens a lot.

 
For those guys who don't follow the NBA and have the time to devote to at least getting a little bit of daily action once or twice a week, you should totally do it for no other reason than to gain an appreciation of the game. I've followed the NBA for most of my life, but just started doing daily about mid-season last year. My knowledge of the game increased dramatically in just a short time.

 
I've been saving up my Fanduel points which will be my "NBA Bankroll". Currently I have about $30 in FD points for entries. I'll probably have another $10 or so by the time the season rolls around. I'm not super keen to jump into the NBA for the first couple games or so. Also really hoping Mike runs his system from last year! Has anyone heard from him?

http://www.sportsguydaily.com/

 
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I've been saving up my Fanduel points which will be my "NBA Bankroll". Currently I have about $30 in FD points for entries. I'll probably have another $10 or so by the time the season rolls around. I'm not super keen to jump into the NBA for the first couple games or so. Also really hoping Mike runs his system from last year! Has anyone heard from him?

http://www.sportsguydaily.com/
I PM'ed him. He said he's not sure if he'll be firing up the mathbox this year or not.

 
i wish we could get an H-value for the NBA games...

if i knew how to create the forumla in excel or something that can just math it out for me would be perfect...

but i have no clue about any of that.

 
Going to try NBA DFS this year. Managed to break even after playing a few nights in the preseason. Any good resources that I should know about?

 
I do that formula but it just does each player one at time...
In Excel, first column is player's name. Second column is their $ value. Third column is their projected points. Fourth column is the aforementioned formula. You can use Ctrl+D to populate an entire column with that same formula.

Then just put in your projected numbers, and wa-la. :shrug:

 
Did projections and H-values for Yahoo!, opening night. Here's the resulting lineup:

Mo Williams

Nate Robinson

Thompson

S. Johnson

Mirotic

A. Davis

Horford

Millsap

 
I figured it out lol

Fanduel likes

PG

Curry

Jackson

MO

Teague

Robinson

SG

Jimmy

Klay

Kent

Smith

Eric gordon

SF

James

Miritoic

PF

Davis

Gasol

Love

Millsap

C

Horford

 
Going to try NBA DFS this year. Managed to break even after playing a few nights in the preseason. Any good resources that I should know about?
Yea, Chaos Commish.
Ha thanks, but remember by the end of January I was ice cold and by the middle of April I was out for the most part. My belief was NBA attracted a bunch of novice/casual NFL overflow through week 17. After that those remaining knew what they were doing so it became much harder to win. Given the massive predatory advertising campaigns this year the beginning of the season should be juicier than ever (if the thinking was right). We'll see

For sources, I liked the daily thread at RG once figuring out who to listen to, and Dinkmeyer's suggestions at Rotoexperts. I think they've turned NBA over to someone else, so who knows. I have a twitter list for NBA beat writers and will narrow it down to the best for each team and post it here. I have another list of active dfsers and might post it here. A couple other memory joggers, the Mathbox was much better than me for cash games on big slates. My strength was smaller slates like tomorrow but preferably a game or three bigger. The Wednesday slate is massive and I'm only playing it a little bit, mostly watching and learning.

Last year NFL was crushing me and NBA made up for that. I'm on a modest but decent 4 week run with NFL right now. Not sure how thin I want to stretch myself with both. Kind of excited for hoops though!

 
Man that RG daily thread seems like a bunch of kids arguing with each other.

CC, do you exclusively play FanDuel? What are your thoughts on the softness of other sites vs. FD and DK, if any?

 
I loved DFS basketball last year, I did really well and was only betting about 30 dollars a night out. I through out 2 GPP lineups for tomorrow in the 2 dollar GPP's. I won't bet much the first 2 or 3 weeks of basketball, not enough stats to go off of and I didn't watch any preseason.

 
My first look at the slate:

Teague

Mo

Butler

Korver

Morris

Iguadala

Davis

Thompson

Horford

Last year, Teague/Horford were pretty solid for cash games (until Teague went on a slump).

It's probably too small of a slate to have 2 LUs, so I borrowed from Chaos above and tweaked (AI for Barnes, allows for "upgrades" from Gordon to Korver and Mirotic to Morris, if they are in fact upgrades). His mining for value with Nate and Varejao allows for a pretty heavy LU with Davis/Steph and Gasol (only stud missing is LBJ). Will probably try to settle on one but taking it very slow early on with a max per night of about $5-6.

 
Here are my two lineups as of right now, I am trying to gamble that Bogut will be out

  • PG
    Stephen Curry
    GS v NOTomorrow 10:30pm EDT
  • PG
    Reggie Jackson
    DET @ ATLTomorrow 8pm EDT
  • SG
    Jimmy Butler
    CHI v CLETomorrow 8pm EDT
  • SG
    Eric Gordon
    NO @ GSTomorrow 10:30pm EDT
  • SF
    Nikola Mirotic
    CHI v CLETomorrow 8pm EDT
  • SF
    Harrison Barnes
    GS v NOTomorrow 10:30pm EDT
  • PF
    Paul Millsap
    ATL v DETTomorrow 8pm EDT
  • PF
    Kevin Love
    CLE @ CHITomorrow 8pm EDT
  • C
    Festus Ezeli
    GS v NOTomorrow 10:30pm EDT

  • PG
    Reggie Jackson
    DET @ ATLTomorrow 8pm EDT
  • PG
    Mo Williams
    CLE @ CHITomorrow 8pm EDT
  • SG
    Eric Gordon
    NO @ GSTomorrow 10:30pm EDT
  • SG
    Kent Bazemore
    ATL v DETTomorrow 8pm EDT
  • SF
    LeBron James
    CLE @ CHITomorrow 8pm EDT
  • SF
    Nikola Mirotic
    CHI v CLETomorrow 8pm EDT
  • PF
    Anthony Davis
    NO @ GSTomorrow 10:30pm EDT
  • PF
    Dante Cunningham
    NO @ GSTomorrow 10:30pm EDT
  • C
    Timofey Mozgov
    CLE @ CHITomorrow 8pm EDT

 
Man that RG daily thread seems like a bunch of kids arguing with each other.

CC, do you exclusively play FanDuel? What are your thoughts on the softness of other sites vs. FD and DK, if any?
I haven't visited RG hoops thread yet. Thanks for the heads up. What I'm doing for a few days now is reading season previews from beat writers. Kind of getting the lay of the new land. Exploiting over unders and guessing game scripts right (and wrong) were key to me getting on a roll and then off it.

My bigger stake is at DK where I focus on cash games for nfl and nba. I use FD for gpps and lotto dreams. Yahoo might be a awesome for nba. I feel more comfortable with the tight pricing for basketball than football.

 
I will say with Mike, CC, karma, Tennessee, Peyton, myself and several others we had a really good thing going in the NBA fanduel thread going last year. I hope we do it again this year. Other than popsecret it was very drama free and I think helpful for everyone.

 
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Started DFS last year. Football only. Got bored at end of season and started following NBA and playing on Fan Duel. Had not followed the sport in years and what I learned ...

  • You have to find reliable news sources with the last minute line-up info. 5-6 PM CST ... you have to be able to follow the MANY last many line-up changes
  • Minutes matter
  • Unlike your football line-up, which can be saved by a single player in garbage time, I found your NBA line-up had to hit on 8/9 or 9/9 players ... every night ... to cash. It is a HARD CORE space with folks that are sharp. My experience was I could not afford to have more than 1 wrong player in cash games
  • Minutes matter
  • The NBA has a culture of ... pouting ... quitting ... coaches proving a point ... guys not playing with a hang nail ... REALLY present the last few weeks of last year's season. As mentioned, you have to keep up with all the sandbox, eight year old girl BS affiliated with the sport
  • If you know little to nothing, enter on the short slate of games. The Wed and Fri nights ... very difficult when new
  • As much fun, if not more, than football DFS and I stopped watching NBA years ago due to the whole league culture stuff
  • The pros in this space ... really blanking good
  • Minutes matter
  • Minutes matter
  • Minutes matter
Just tinkered with a cash line-up and ..

Curry/Robinson

Gordon/Thompson

Mirotic/H Barnes

Brow/E Ilya

Horford

Think you can pivot to Mozgov and use J Butler. Butler becomes really nice play if LeBron sits

 
I haven't noticed much of this myself, but there are complaints on RG that identical NHL lineups are popping up, like 100 person 5050s having 15+ identical lineups. Doesn't mean the lineups are any good, and apparently they are free of charge somewhere on Twitter (not surprising). Can't imagine this not happening for NBA. The DFS landscape is quite different this year versus last, IMO. Not sure how to capitalize on this, but just something I'm tossing out there.

 
Are they good lineups, typically?
Not sure. The one I saw posted didn't look that good and there were comments that it was crappy. It was supposedly not a small slate also.

It's just kind of crazy that in single entry 100 person contests there are instances of 15%+ identical lineups. Good or bad, I'd rather not be in there I'm thinking..unless it's always bad.

 
Right now on DK cash I have: 1000 salary leftover

Stephen Curry

Kent Bazemore

Lebron James

Anthony Davis

Horford

Nate Robinson

Mike Scott

Jodie Meeks

I had Anderson Varejao at only 3.4k but he is kind of risky as he might not play much but cheap. 3 game slate is tricky as you could make a case for playing at least AD and Lebron/Curry or all three. Have to consider opportunity cost of not playing a certain player and other options at that position.

 
msudaisy26 said:
I will say with Mike, CC, karma, Tennessee, Peyton, myself and several others we had a really good thing going in the NBA fanduel thread going last year. I hope we do it again this year. Other than popsecret it was very drama free and I think helpful for everyone.
Thanks, but I was purely a taker last year in terms of mathematical analysis. I finally got on a roll once I stopped deviating from the Mathbox as much.

WhoDat said:
Started DFS last year. Football only. Got bored at end of season and started following NBA and playing on Fan Duel. Had not followed the sport in years and what I learned ...

  • You have to find reliable news sources with the last minute line-up info. 5-6 PM CST ... you have to be able to follow the MANY last many line-up changes
  • Minutes matter
  • Unlike your football line-up, which can be saved by a single player in garbage time, I found your NBA line-up had to hit on 8/9 or 9/9 players ... every night ... to cash. It is a HARD CORE space with folks that are sharp. My experience was I could not afford to have more than 1 wrong player in cash games
  • Minutes matter
  • The NBA has a culture of ... pouting ... quitting ... coaches proving a point ... guys not playing with a hang nail ... REALLY present the last few weeks of last year's season. As mentioned, you have to keep up with all the sandbox, eight year old girl BS affiliated with the sport
  • If you know little to nothing, enter on the short slate of games. The Wed and Fri nights ... very difficult when new
  • As much fun, if not more, than football DFS and I stopped watching NBA years ago due to the whole league culture stuff
  • The pros in this space ... really blanking good
  • Minutes matter
  • Minutes matter
  • Minutes matter
Just tinkered with a cash line-up and ..

Curry/Robinson

Gordon/Thompson

Mirotic/H Barnes

Brow/E Ilya

Horford

Think you can pivot to Mozgov and use J Butler. Butler becomes really nice play if LeBron sits
The NBA daily game is far superior to the NFL. The sport lends itself to statistical analysis. The stat nerds have literally changed how the real game is played in a profound way. Plus there is nothing even remotely like an NBA'er getting dialed-in and absolutely taking over the game. No other team sport allows the type of dominance that the NBA allows for a dominant player who is dialed-in. When Anthony Davis or Lebron or Westbrook or Harden or Boogie or Curry or any number of other players get it going it is simply awesome to watch. Especially if you have him rostered.

Some things that will drive you crazy that are completely unlike the NFL: late healthy scratches (often disguised as a scratch due to some innocuous, vague "injury"), a starter on your team grabbing 2 quick fouls and sitting, and the rotation patterns. You will invariably find yourself having to start a guy who is part of the second unit and his points will come at clearly defined point in the 1st and 2nd halves, especially in GPPs -- they can provide incredible value if you choose wisely. In the old days (i.e., 5 years ago) NBA teams resisted the notion of "first unit" and "second unit" and substitution patterns were less clearly defined. Nowadays that isn't the case. When you are watching games or tracking along Gamecast, the substitution patterns may take you a bit of time to get used to. Of course, foul trouble for a starter can turn a second-unit, 16 minute guy into a 24 minute guy.

As noted above, minutes matter. A lot. A blow-out either way will result in starters sitting most of the 4th quarter, especially later in the season. Closely related is the scheduling. I can't emphasize it enough, you have to pay attention to back-to-backs, 3-in-4s, and 4-in-5s. You have to remember that NBA teams treat chunks of the regular season as a complete waste of time anyway. Many teams will just pick a game in the middle of a 4-in-5 to just completely, shamelessly tank. The Spurs get the most publicity for it, but everyone does it. Pay attention because not only does that represent a team of starters to avoid, but it creates a great opportunity to roster huge value.

 
msudaisy26 said:
Here are my two lineups as of right now, I am trying to gamble that Bogut will be out
Everything I'm hearing is that Bogut will play, so beware. If he doesn't, Festus would appear to be the best value at C for sure.

 
Glad I checked in here, I had just bumped the old FFA thread. I am admitted total novice at the NBA but a huge thank you to Bobcat, Chaos, msudaisy, and the others from that thread last year I came out a little ahead and had some fun. Tried tonight's lineup pretty much fully on my own since there is little data around, I did notice last year one key was knowing injuries and to whom those minutes went. For that reason I went Nate Robinson tonight, Evans and Cole hurt and Holiday on a minute limit should provide some good opportunity at $3500.

PG - Mo Williams, Nate Robinson

SG - Jimmy Bitler, Klay Thompson

SF - Marcus Morris, Nikola Mirotic

PF - The Brow, Ilyasova

C - Horford

If Festus ends up starting I may rework and add him in and then get LeBron in.

 
Was looking around some sounds like Mozgov is planning to play. Going to have to rework lineup to move off of Varajao

 
value plays seem fairly obvious tonight. Nate and Mo at PG, Bazemore/JR at SG. feels like you've gotta get Davis into your lineup based on the usage he's going to see. i'm also very bullish on Mirotic this year, so makes sense to capitalize on that before his price goes up.

 
Came up with this after reading some articles on the short slate. Fading LBJ is always dangerous, but this goes after every other stud in the short slate: Curry, Davis, Gasol, Drummond (would like to have Buckets but he's not in the salary range):

Curry, Nate

Gordon, Bazemore

Barnes, McDermott

Davis, Gasol

Drummond

The only way to work in Buckets is to switch from Gasol to Speights, and upgrade Bazemore. I don't think I want much of the GS front court split between Speights, Bogut, and Festus splitting minutes going against Brow.

 
value plays seem fairly obvious tonight. Nate and Mo at PG, Bazemore/JR at SG. feels like you've gotta get Davis into your lineup based on the usage he's going to see. i'm also very bullish on Mirotic this year, so makes sense to capitalize on that before his price goes up.
Some people may play Lebron, AD, Curry and Drummond/Horford in DK cash games. If you do that you have to roster $3000 players for rest of lineup. 3 games is tough because if you have one of those top players and they do poorly you could be out of the money.

It is tricky because I like Mo Williams, Nate and Butler among other plays but now you have to consider the opportunity cost of fading one of the top 3 plays and the top center play.

 
Came up with this after reading some articles on the short slate. Fading LBJ is always dangerous, but this goes after every other stud in the short slate: Curry, Davis, Gasol, Drummond (would like to have Buckets but he's not in the salary range):

Curry, Nate

Gordon, Bazemore

Barnes, McDermott

Davis, Gasol

Drummond

The only way to work in Buckets is to switch from Gasol to Speights, and upgrade Bazemore. I don't think I want much of the GS front court split between Speights, Bogut, and Festus splitting minutes going against Brow.
As long as the game is close expect Draymond to draw Brow and do a good job. The injuries, over under, and potential blow out make this game feel like a trap with hidden impossible to guess value at lower salaries. If the Pelicans make this a game it's going to be because Davis and Jrue do work on both ends. Holiday's minutes restriction is hard for me to buy if he's going toe to toe with Curry and it's a good game. Lots of gpp darts here. I'm likely fading most for cash lineups though. Can't wait to crack a beer and watch it though.

 
I have some concerns with the Bulls front court rotation. Pau hasn't played defense in years. I'm not sure Mirotic ever has. It seems to me that the more natural playing partner for Mirotic would be Noah. I know that right now the Bulls are at least saying they're starting Pau and Mirotic, but I can see that rotation being in a state of flux for several weeks as they try to balance good offense/incompetent defense with good defense/incompetent offense players.

 
I have some concerns with the Bulls front court rotation. Pau hasn't played defense in years. I'm not sure Mirotic ever has. It seems to me that the more natural playing partner for Mirotic would be Noah. I know that right now the Bulls are at least saying they're starting Pau and Mirotic, but I can see that rotation being in a state of flux for several weeks as they try to balance good offense/incompetent defense with good defense/incompetent offense players.
Portis probably deserving of some run too. Agree, it's real murky.

Festus is a great play if Bogut's out. Would not even mess with Speights.

 

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