What Stats Do You Use In Your Projection Models That Aren't Obviou (1 Viewer)

scrum77 · Dec 8, 2015

I'm finally starting to win some and enjoying making these excel spreadsheets. They're getting more advanced every week and I was hoping we could share some of the metrics we use for each position. Some of the stats I use that may not be blatantly obvious to everyone are:

QB - Total penalty yards on offense (use this one for all offensive positions but just going to write it once), WR matchups

RB - Opponent rushing 1st downs allowed, number of rush plays vs. opponent

WR - RZ targets, height

TE - RZ targets, height, weight

DEF - Stats for all the metrics that cause DEFs to score points (sacks, OPP sacks allowed, fumbles caused, OPP fumbles, DEF TDs, etc.)

Yeah I know they're not mind boggling but I'm working on it. What cool stats do you use for your models? Been looking for some good ones for TE.

Also, how much should I worry about height, weight, and speed for WR/TE/RB?

Maurile Tremblay · Dec 8, 2015

I wouldn't worry about height, weight, or speed at all unless you find evidence that any of those traits are correlated with fantasy production after controlling for the other things you're presumably already taking into account (like touchdowns per rush, yards per catch, etc.).

Bri · Dec 8, 2015

scrum77 said:
I'm finally starting to win some and enjoying making these excel spreadsheets. They're getting more advanced every week and I was hoping we could share some of the metrics we use for each position. Some of the stats I use that may not be blatantly obvious to everyone are:

QB - Total penalty yards on offense (use this one for all offensive positions but just going to write it once), WR matchups

RB - Opponent rushing 1st downs allowed, number of rush plays vs. opponent

WR - RZ targets, height

TE - RZ targets, height, weight

DEF - Stats for all the metrics that cause DEFs to score points (sacks, OPP sacks allowed, fumbles caused, OPP fumbles, DEF TDs, etc.)

Yeah I know they're not mind boggling but I'm working on it. What cool stats do you use for your models? Been looking for some good ones for TE.

Also, how much should I worry about height, weight, and speed for WR/TE/RB?

I agree with Maurile's general sentiment, so...whatcha got with height and weight? Do you find it indicative of anything?

cheese · Dec 8, 2015

For defense, I pretty much just take the biggest Vegas favorite, even if they're supposed to win by scoring a ton on offense. I think team D points correlate pretty well with team margin of victory.

Maurile Tremblay · Dec 8, 2015

cheese said:
For defense, I pretty much just take the biggest Vegas favorite, even if they're supposed to win by scoring a ton on offense. I think team D points correlate pretty well with team margin of victory.

It depends a bit on scoring system, but I think this is an excellent approach in a league that gives a lot of weight to turnovers and sacks, and not as much to yards allowed or points allowed. (ETA: I forgot which forum I was in for a second. No DFS site that I know of includes yards allowed.)

To get turnovers and sacks, you generally want the opponent to be playing from behind as much as possible. That way, your defense can pin its ears back and rush the passer.

Tennessee_ATO · Dec 8, 2015

Maurile Tremblay said:
cheese said:

For defense, I pretty much just take the biggest Vegas favorite, even if they're supposed to win by scoring a ton on offense. I think team D points correlate pretty well with team margin of victory.

Click to expand...

It depends a bit on scoring system, but I think this is an excellent approach in a league that gives a lot of weight to turnovers and sacks, and not as much to yards allowed or points allowed. (ETA: I forgot which forum I was in for a second. No DFS site that I know of includes yards allowed.)

To get turnovers and sacks, you generally want the opponent to be playing from behind as much as possible. That way, your defense can pin its ears back and rush the passer.

Opposing offenses seem to get panicky facing a team with a dominant offense. For example, personnel-wise I think Pitt's defense is pretty sucky. But they have had some nice games I think largely because mediocre offenses have heaped all this pressure on themselves to score a ton to keep up with Pitt. When NE had those elite offenses I think its defense totally benefitted from it.

scrum77 · Dec 9, 2015

I've read some articles where big size is a plus. Just a stat I'm using for if I'm stuck between two players. Maurile, in your 1st comment you put some stats in parentheses. Any chance you could elaborate on some of your favorite stats?

Scoresman · Dec 9, 2015

All Positions

- Vegas implied team totals

- Football Outsiders offensive Pace statistics

QB Specific

- Football Outsiders (FO) QB DVOA

- FO O-line DVOA (pass blocking) vs. opponent Defensive line DVOA

- FO overall Pass defense DVOA of opponent

RB Specific

- FO RB DVOA

- FO O-line DVOA (run blocking) vs. oppenent Defensive line DVOA

- 3 week target history

- Carries per game

WR/TE Specific

- Football Outsiders WR/TE DVOA

- Specific WR/CB DVOA matchup ranking. For example, if its a WR2 I pull into the spreadsheet FO's ranking of how the opposing defense defends WR2s. Some grunt work here because if a team's WR1 gets hurt I need to go in and change their WR2 to WR1, etc.

- Average yards per target

- Catch rate

- Red Zone targets per game

- 3 week target history

I used to be much more projection based, now I just pull all of the above into a neat spreadsheet. Ever since changing to this format a month and a half ago, I haven't had a minus EV week.

cheese · Dec 9, 2015

Slight preference for players on 500+ teams in cash and <500 teams in GPPs. Playoff teams tend to follow more predictable game scripts. Bad teams are much bigger risk of no shows but find themselves in wild games or garbage time.

scrum77 · Dec 12, 2015

Scoresman said:
All Positions

- Vegas implied team totals

- Football Outsiders offensive Pace statistics

QB Specific

- Football Outsiders (FO) QB DVOA

- FO O-line DVOA (pass blocking) vs. opponent Defensive line DVOA

- FO overall Pass defense DVOA of opponent

RB Specific

- FO RB DVOA

- FO O-line DVOA (run blocking) vs. oppenent Defensive line DVOA

- 3 week target history

- Carries per game

WR/TE Specific

- Football Outsiders WR/TE DVOA

- Specific WR/CB DVOA matchup ranking. For example, if its a WR2 I pull into the spreadsheet FO's ranking of how the opposing defense defends WR2s. Some grunt work here because if a team's WR1 gets hurt I need to go in and change their WR2 to WR1, etc.

- Average yards per target

- Catch rate

- Red Zone targets per game

- 3 week target history

I used to be much more projection based, now I just pull all of the above into a neat spreadsheet. Ever since changing to this format a month and a half ago, I haven't had a minus EV week.

Thanks a lot this is exactly what I was looking for. Appreciate you sharing.

scrum77 · Dec 12, 2015

cheese said:
Slight preference for players on 500+ teams in cash and <500 teams in GPPs. Playoff teams tend to follow more predictable game scripts. Bad teams are much bigger risk of no shows but find themselves in wild games or garbage time.

I'll keep this in mind. Seems like a pretty legit analysis.

scrum77 · Dec 14, 2015

Scoresman said:
All Positions

- Vegas implied team totals

- Football Outsiders offensive Pace statistics

QB Specific

- Football Outsiders (FO) QB DVOA

- FO O-line DVOA (pass blocking) vs. opponent Defensive line DVOA

- FO overall Pass defense DVOA of opponent

RB Specific

- FO RB DVOA

- FO O-line DVOA (run blocking) vs. oppenent Defensive line DVOA

- 3 week target history

- Carries per game

WR/TE Specific

- Football Outsiders WR/TE DVOA

- Specific WR/CB DVOA matchup ranking. For example, if its a WR2 I pull into the spreadsheet FO's ranking of how the opposing defense defends WR2s. Some grunt work here because if a team's WR1 gets hurt I need to go in and change their WR2 to WR1, etc.

- Average yards per target

- Catch rate

- Red Zone targets per game

- 3 week target history

I used to be much more projection based, now I just pull all of the above into a neat spreadsheet. Ever since changing to this format a month and a half ago, I haven't had a minus EV week.

For FO offensive pace stats, do you look at team + opponent offensive pace? And quicker the better? Like if I had a COMPLEX formula that added both teams time per play and favored towards the lowest total would that be a good idea?

I am having trouble finding the O-line DVOA (pass blocking) and Defensive line DVOA on FO.

For RB, is there a reason you prefer to know their 3 week target history vs. season long? My first inclination is to think RB targets can be very random and season long would paint a more accurate picture. I'd really like to understand your thought process behind some of the trends you follow.

Thanks again for all of this.

BassNBrew · Dec 14, 2015

My model that seems to be working...

1. Pick 4 Panthers if I'm watching that game.

2. Ride whoever is hot…i.e.: Freeman, Hopkins, Baldwin, until they aren't

3. Have my girlfriend access the better start based on the first name. Obviously Sammy is faster then Brandon on that basis and will score more.

4. Pick the best five kickers based on weather, game scenarios, advances metrics. Throw those kicker's names into the trash and throw a dart at the remaining kickers or just fade whoever I'm starting at K in my main league and use the opponents kicker.

scrum77 · Dec 15, 2015

BassNBrew said:
My model that seems to be working...

1. Pick 4 Panthers if I'm watching that game.

2. Ride whoever is hot…i.e.: Freeman, Hopkins, Baldwin, until they aren't

3. Have my girlfriend access the better start based on the first name. Obviously Sammy is faster then Brandon on that basis and will score more.

4. Pick the best five kickers based on weather, game scenarios, advances metrics. Throw those kicker's names into the trash and throw a dart at the remaining kickers or just fade whoever I'm starting at K in my main league and use the opponents kicker.

You're not alone.

Scoresman · Dec 15, 2015

scrum77 said:
Scoresman said:

All Positions

- Vegas implied team totals

- Football Outsiders offensive Pace statistics

QB Specific

- Football Outsiders (FO) QB DVOA

- FO O-line DVOA (pass blocking) vs. opponent Defensive line DVOA

- FO overall Pass defense DVOA of opponent

RB Specific

- FO RB DVOA

- FO O-line DVOA (run blocking) vs. oppenent Defensive line DVOA

- 3 week target history

- Carries per game

WR/TE Specific

- Football Outsiders WR/TE DVOA

- Specific WR/CB DVOA matchup ranking. For example, if its a WR2 I pull into the spreadsheet FO's ranking of how the opposing defense defends WR2s. Some grunt work here because if a team's WR1 gets hurt I need to go in and change their WR2 to WR1, etc.

- Average yards per target

- Catch rate

- Red Zone targets per game

- 3 week target history

I used to be much more projection based, now I just pull all of the above into a neat spreadsheet. Ever since changing to this format a month and a half ago, I haven't had a minus EV week.

Click to expand...

For FO offensive pace stats, do you look at team + opponent offensive pace? And quicker the better? Like if I had a COMPLEX formula that added both teams time per play and favored towards the lowest total would that be a good idea?

I am having trouble finding the O-line DVOA (pass blocking) and Defensive line DVOA on FO.

For RB, is there a reason you prefer to know their 3 week target history vs. season long? My first inclination is to think RB targets can be very random and season long would paint a more accurate picture. I'd really like to understand your thought process behind some of the trends you follow.

Thanks again for all of this.

Pace: I just pull in the offensive pace from FO then add up both teams pace for their matchup and divide by 2 to get an expected game pace ranking. For example, if PHI who is ranked 1 in pace is playing Dallas who is ranked 32 in pace, then my expected game pace ranking is (32+1)/2 = 16.5.

I never really understood how defensive pace was a relevant stat other than a measure of the offensive teams that team has faced. How does a defense dictate the pace of the opposing offense? Maybe I'm missing something, but i just use the offensive pace stats.

O-line DVOA: Pass blocking is the blue text on the main offensive line table. They throw it onto the same table for some reason.

D-Line DVOA: It's here. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/dl It's confusing because they use the same headers "Pass protection" and "Run Blocking" as the O-line table, but the actual values are ranking the D-lines by pass rush and run D.

For the three week targets, I just like to see what that player's done recently. A total target stat alone may not tell you if those targets came earlier in the season or more recently. That said, I could see a value for season long targets and even all 16 weeks worth in their own columns, but I just have only so many columns to make it all fit neatly on one screen, so I dont use all of that.

Scoresman · Dec 15, 2015

Spent today learning how to use the Solver function in excel to build optimal lineups. I have it so that it can spit out optimal lineups based on FBG and 4for4 projections. It's pretty awesome. It's like the FBG interactive value tool but without the need to pre-select 3 players.

Next is to come up with various GPP optimal lineup solvers with constraints like QB-WR pairs, RB-DEF pairs, etc.

Peyton Marino · Dec 15, 2015

Scoresman said:
Spent today learning how to use the Solver function in excel to build optimal lineups. I have it so that it can spit out optimal lineups based on FBG and 4for4 projections. It's pretty awesome. It's like the FBG interactive value tool but without the need to pre-select 3 players.

Next is to come up with various GPP optimal lineup solvers with constraints like QB-WR pairs, RB-DEF pairs, etc.

do you have one for draftkings? would be interested in sharing notes if so. I made one for fanduel but haven't figured out how to make one with flexes.

Scoresman · Dec 15, 2015

Peyton Marino said:
Scoresman said:

Spent today learning how to use the Solver function in excel to build optimal lineups. I have it so that it can spit out optimal lineups based on FBG and 4for4 projections. It's pretty awesome. It's like the FBG interactive value tool but without the need to pre-select 3 players.

Next is to come up with various GPP optimal lineup solvers with constraints like QB-WR pairs, RB-DEF pairs, etc.

Click to expand...

do you have one for draftkings? would be interested in sharing notes if so. I made one for fanduel but haven't figured out how to make one with flexes.

sorry, fanduel player here. For flex, couldnt you just add a 2nd Position column and populate the RB/WR/TEs with one value and then do a constraint based off that?

scrum77 · Dec 15, 2015

I'm just getting into excel and so far for my projection models I have conditional formatting (green, yellow, red) for each stat. I created 3 tiers for each stat and with the colors I have a better visual display of value players. I also created a VLOOKUP scheme where I can make lineups and it puts the total price next to each lineup. Definitely nothing crazy but coming from 0 experience 2 weeks ago I'm making progress.

I am pretty concerned with setting 50-200 lineups twice a week (Thurs/Sun). This past week was hectic and I didn't even get into the hundreds like I would have liked to. I really need to learn how to manage multiple lineups and get the right distribution in a systematic way. Fantasycruncher just doesn't do it for me. I import from CSV via Rotogrinders Chrome extension, but when I type lineups out I don't get the right distribution and the final salaries are too low or too high. It just doesn't work. How do you guys do it?

Scoresman · Dec 15, 2015

scrum77 said:
I'm just getting into excel and so far for my projection models I have conditional formatting (green, yellow, red) for each stat. I created 3 tiers for each stat and with the colors I have a better visual display of value players. I also created a VLOOKUP scheme where I can make lineups and it puts the total price next to each lineup. Definitely nothing crazy but coming from 0 experience 2 weeks ago I'm making progress.

I am pretty concerned with setting 50-200 lineups twice a week (Thurs/Sun). This past week was hectic and I didn't even get into the hundreds like I would have liked to. I really need to learn how to manage multiple lineups and get the right distribution in a systematic way. Fantasycruncher just doesn't do it for me. I import from CSV via Rotogrinders Chrome extension, but when I type lineups out I don't get the right distribution and the final salaries are too low or too high. It just doesn't work. How do you guys do it?

Short answer is, I dont. Are you looking to play 50-200 unique lineups a week? You're looking at some very advanced excel functions for that if its even possible. I spent all day today just getting it to pick the one, most optimal lineup. Expanding it to pick the next 200 best lineups after that might make my computer start to shoot smoke out the sides, not sure.

I have a similar lineup building thing as you only it also pulls projected points scored in addition to salary. It's all manual though in that I have to type the players' names. It's just there for me to play around with different lineups. I dont play hundreds of lineups though. I just pick a few that the spreadsheet really likes and put them all into a ton of cash games and a handful of GPPs.

Drafthorse · Dec 16, 2015

BassNBrew said:
My model that seems to be working...

1. Pick 4 Panthers if I'm watching that game.

2. Ride whoever is hot…i.e.: Freeman, Hopkins, Baldwin, until they aren't

3. Have my girlfriend access the better start based on the first name. Obviously Sammy is faster then Brandon on that basis and will score more.

4. Pick the best five kickers based on weather, game scenarios, advances metrics. Throw those kicker's names into the trash and throw a dart at the remaining kickers or just fade whoever I'm starting at K in my main league and use the opponents kicker.

If any of the players on my opponent's season long leagues are the same that I am playing against, I put them into DFS. This week is light with only one match- Hopkins. Play him!

Scoresman · Dec 17, 2015

Just got a beta invite to maxdalury's new lineup building tool. Email had the following: "You are part of a small group (less than 50) daily fantasy sports experts who were invited to take a pre-launch, sneak peek at this platform." :lmao:

It's not complete but looks pretty slick so far.

What Stats Do You Use In Your Projection Models That Aren't Obviou (1 Viewer)

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