Interesting read if you're an insider.
http://espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=11933 If not here:
Andrew McCutchen won the National League MVP in 2013 and has finished in the top five in the voting four different times, which means that already, he has matched a Pittsburgh Pirates Hall of Famer. Roberto Clemente won the NL MVP in 1966, and ranked in the top five in the voting in four seasons, some of the achievements of a man whose life ended way too soon.
The 29-year-old McCutchen has 1,151 career hits and 151 career homers, and so he should have at least a chance to attain the 3,000-hit benchmark that was the crowning jewel of Clemente's playing career. McCutchen has had a lot moments like this, as well, demonstrating that he is a worthy heir to Clemente as the signature star for the 124-year-old Pirates franchise.
But Clemente played at a time when the choice about whether he played for the Pirates belonged almost entirely to the team. Because of baseball's clause, the Pirates could keep Clemente in their lineup as long as they wanted, and as long as they wanted him, Clemente's only real alternative was to quit.
McCutchen, on the other hand, is part of an era when David Price makes about $10,000 per pitch, and a middle-of-the-rotation starter like Mike Leake gets a contract worth about half of what Bill DeWitt, Jr. paid for the St. Louis Cardinals 20 years ago.
McCutchen could walk away from the Pirates after the 2018 season and become a free agent, although the decision about when and if he is going to continue a permanent Pittsburgh legacy will likely be made long before that -- by McCutchen and the Pirates, mutually.
Like Clemente, McCutchen could play his whole career with the Pirates, but in order for that to happen, significant concessions will probably have to be made by both the player and the team -- and sooner rather than later, perhaps within the next year.
The longer the Pirates and McCutchen go without working out an extension that would keep McCutchen in Pittsburgh beyond the 2018 season, the odds of McCutchen moving on to some other team will probably climb, exponentially.
The particulars of McCutchen's contract: Under the terms of a deal executed in the spring of 2012, he will make $13 million in 2016, $14 million in 2017, and the Pirates hold a team option of $14.75 million in 2018 -- a no-brainer, of course.
McCutchen could hit the open market in 2018, the same fall that Bryce Harper seemingly has a chance to reach $400 million or $500 million in a long-term contract.
Let's get the obvious out of the way: If McCutchen wants to make anything close to what his market value might be at the time he becomes a free agent, there is no chance the Pirates will retain him. No chance. This is a franchise led by president Frank Coonelly and general manager Neal Huntington, who are among the most disciplined executives in the sport and will never steer the Pirates into a situation in which one player -- as great as McCutchen is -- is making 30 to 40 percent of the team's payroll.
They've seen how devastating that kind of dynamic can be for a midmarket or small-market team. The Colorado Rockies were hamstrung for years by Todd Helton's contract, and then last summer, they had to dump the contract of shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. The Cincinnati Reds could have a situation soon in which Joey Votto accounts for 30 percent or more of the team's total budget -- probably untenable, if the club has aspirations of seriously contending in the NL Central.
The Pirates have also witnessed the pitfalls of paying a star market value in a long-term extension years before free agency. Votto got his extension from the Reds two years before he could've tested the market, and despite his strong performance in 2015, his contract is regarded as one of baseball's worst (from a team perspective). The Detroit Tigers moved pre-emptively to lock up Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera two seasons before each of those players might've reached free agency -- and given the injuries and regression for each, there is virtually no chance that either player could've gotten anything close to what the Tigers gave them if Detroit had simply waited.
But in order to keep McCutchen -- to even have a chance -- the Pirates would have to work out a deal well beyond their comfort zone, because there would be a legacy surcharge for Pittsburgh. If the Pirates worked out an extension with McCutchen, it would be a deal that almost certainly would keep him with the team that drafted him for the rest of his career, and moving forward, he would be their Clemente, their Cal Ripken, their Tony Gwynn, their Derek Jeter. There would be a lot of value in that, in having McCutchen in the lineup or in the organization through those inevitable cycles when the team struggled in the standings.
The Pirates would have to commit more than they wanted -- maybe four or five years, at $22 million to $24 million a year. They would need to become comfortable with the idea of investing in McCutchen's final seasons beyond that extension, when their per-dollar return for his performance would become an inefficiency in their effort to win games. (As it was for the Houston Astros, who continued to play and pay Craig Biggio well beyond his most productive seasons, as he pursued 3,000 hits).
McCutchen would have to forgo the possibility of making a lot more money than what the Pirates would be willing to pay -- as he did in signing his current contract -- in return for guaranteeing himself tens of millions of dollars more right now, and assuring himself the kind of one-franchise Ripken and Jeter stature that is increasingly rare for superstar players.
The decision for both sides looms, and it would be good business for the Pirates to hit that crossroad soon, while McCutchen is a superstar-level player and his trade value is extraordinarily high.
It would make sense for the Pirates to sit down with McCutchen and his representatives before the start of the 2016 season, and take their best shot at signing the center fielder to a long-term extension. Pittsburgh ownership could take a deep breath and present a number and terms that might make them queasy -- but far short of the Cabrera and Votto contracts.
Maybe the proposal would provide a platform for talks; maybe McCutchen's side would agree, or at least be willing to haggle some. It's also possible that the Pirates' proposal, within the current context, wouldn't be close to what McCutchen would want in an extension. Maybe McCutchen would prefer to play someplace else, for more money, which is entirely his right, an opportunity that Clemente never had under the old, onerous rules.
The sooner there is clarity on this for the Pirates and McCutchen, the better. If McCutchen agreed to terms, then the building anxiety over his situation -- for all involved, including the fans -- would end. (And with time, the price of an extension might only become more expensive).
If the Pirates and McCutchen cannot reach a deal, then the team's leadership would know, moving forward, that his time with the franchise will end. If the Pirates fall behind the Cardinals and Chicago Cubs in the NL Central standings next summer, the team could dangle McCutchen in the July trade market and at least begin the process of assessing what they can get in return for him. They could either move him before July 31, or swap him next winter or the winter of 2017-18, leading up to his free agency.
McCutchen is incredibly important to the Pirates -- first and foremost, because of the type of player that he is, and because of who he is, as a person. But he is also the organization's most fungible asset, and they either need to get return on investment directly from him, as their best and most marketable player, or in the form of players received in a trade.
