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Fanduel Week 15 (1 Viewer)

W

wyattroa

Footballguy
Lets keep rolling.

Side notes of mine.

Russel Wilson/Baldwin...How do you not play this combo in cash games? They have no RB now and are playing Cleveland at home

Seattle defense, again playing Cleveland at home

Watkins with a shootout against washington

Landry if healthy against san Diego

Chris Boswel kicking against denver

David johnson against philly at a good price.

Cam Newton against a crappy giants d and stewart might be out.

Just some of the guys I am looking at right now

 
wyattroa said:
Lets keep rolling.

Side notes of mine.

Russel Wilson/Baldwin...How do you not play this combo in cash games? They have no RB now and are playing Cleveland at home

Seattle defense, again playing Cleveland at home

Watkins with a shootout against washington

Landry if healthy against san Diego

Chris Boswel kicking against denver

David johnson against philly at a good price.

Cam Newton against a crappy giants d and stewart might be out.

Just some of the guys I am looking at right now
Click to expand...
At the very least it seems that Seattle DST has to be at least your starting point in every cash lineup.

 
I think theres risk with both those guys this week for that reason. Carolina doesnt need to play at all, and if Russel took the game off the Seahawks would still be a TD favorite. The two QBs Im look at right now are Bortles and Stafford.

 
chet said:
Who has a higher floor? Newton or Wilson?
Click to expand...
Seattle has been throttling people as of late and not letting off the gas even at the end of games. Carolina pulled post of their starters in the second half and have already clinched a first round bye. I like cam, but I dont see them risking their players if they are up.

 
NixonMask said:
I think theres risk with both those guys this week for that reason. Carolina doesnt need to play at all, and if Russel took the game off the Seahawks would still be a TD favorite. The two QBs Im look at right now are Bortles and Stafford.
Click to expand...
I don't trust Stafford at all in cash, but I've been on the Bortles train all season. I'm actually kicking the tires on the Jags DST as a possible change-of-pace play. I usually subscribe to the "only play a good defense, don't chase match-ups with a weak defense", but Atlanta is absolutely horrible.

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
NixonMask said:
I think theres risk with both those guys this week for that reason. Carolina doesnt need to play at all, and if Russel took the game off the Seahawks would still be a TD favorite. The two QBs Im look at right now are Bortles and Stafford.
Click to expand...
I don't trust Stafford at all in cash, but I've been on the Bortles train all season. I'm actually kicking the tires on the Jags DST as a possible change-of-pace play. I usually subscribe to the "only play a good defense, don't chase match-ups with a weak defense", but Atlanta is absolutely horrible.
Click to expand...
For some reason Atlanta is a dumpster fire right now. Their new OC is not meshing well with matt ryan and company.

 
I may have Gronk in almost every cash/GPP line-up. Titans have been getting destroyed lately and Gronk is 100% healthy. Vegas has them scoring about 30 points, I can see them scoring a 40 burger.

 
wyattroa said:
Tennessee_ATO said:
NixonMask said:
I think theres risk with both those guys this week for that reason. Carolina doesnt need to play at all, and if Russel took the game off the Seahawks would still be a TD favorite. The two QBs Im look at right now are Bortles and Stafford.
Click to expand...
I don't trust Stafford at all in cash, but I've been on the Bortles train all season. I'm actually kicking the tires on the Jags DST as a possible change-of-pace play. I usually subscribe to the "only play a good defense, don't chase match-ups with a weak defense", but Atlanta is absolutely horrible.
Click to expand...
For some reason Atlanta is a dumpster fire right now. Their new OC is not meshing well with matt ryan and company.
Click to expand...
Ryan looks horrible. I rode that dude a ton last year and tried to do it again earlier this season. For whatever reason, he's been incompetent for 6+ weeks now. I've avoided Julio like the plague for the entire second half. And they finally have a legit running back so you would think Ryan would be more efficient even if his usage rate dropped. Damnedest thing I've seen this season. I've just assumed he's been hiding an injury.

 
According to my new-fangled spreadsheet, this is the optimal lineup based on Dodd's early projections.

Name SAL FBG 4for4QB Matthew Stafford 7,800 20.3 19.8RB David Johnson 6,500 17.5 16.6RB DeAngelo Williams 7,000 17 16.5WR Jeremy Maclin 6,700 15.2 13.5WR Larry Fitzgerald 7,200 14.3 14.9WR Calvin Johnson 8,000 15.7 16.1TE Jordan Reed 6,300 12 13.4PK Stephen Gostkowski 5,100 11 8.6DEF Seattle Seahawks 5,400 14 11.7Total 60,000 137.0 131.1and the optimal lineup according to 4for4 (john paulsen) early projections

Code: 
Name                    SAL      FBG    4for4 QB Russell Wilson       8,800    21.9   22.7 RB David Johnson        6,500    17.5   16.6 RB Shaun Draughn        6,100    11.9   14.1 WR Jeremy Maclin        6,700    15.2   13.5 WR Larry Fitzgerald     7,200    14.3   14.9 WR Calvin Johnson       8,000    15.7   16.1 TE Greg Olsen           6,800    12.5   14.6 PK Matt Prater          4,500    8.8    7.4 DEF Seattle Seahawks    5,400    14    11.7 Total                  60,000    131.8  131.6
 
Tennessee_ATO said:
wyattroa said:
Tennessee_ATO said:
NixonMask said:
I think theres risk with both those guys this week for that reason. Carolina doesnt need to play at all, and if Russel took the game off the Seahawks would still be a TD favorite. The two QBs Im look at right now are Bortles and Stafford.
Click to expand...
I don't trust Stafford at all in cash, but I've been on the Bortles train all season. I'm actually kicking the tires on the Jags DST as a possible change-of-pace play. I usually subscribe to the "only play a good defense, don't chase match-ups with a weak defense", but Atlanta is absolutely horrible.
Click to expand...
For some reason Atlanta is a dumpster fire right now. Their new OC is not meshing well with matt ryan and company.
Click to expand...
Ryan looks horrible. I rode that dude a ton last year and tried to do it again earlier this season. For whatever reason, he's been incompetent for 6+ weeks now. I've avoided Julio like the plague for the entire second half. And they finally have a legit running back so you would think Ryan would be more efficient even if his usage rate dropped. Damnedest thing I've seen this season. I've just assumed he's been hiding an injury.
Click to expand...
During the MNF halftime show, Harrison made comment (paraphrasing) that RG3 and Ryan have the same problem- Kyle Shanahan. You gotta love that guy- say it for what it is!

 
The David Johnson/Shaun Draughn bargain bin special has made me money 2 weeks in a row. I see no reason not to continue to ride this bandwagon.

 
Scoresman said:
The David Johnson/Shaun Draughn bargain bin special has made me money 2 weeks in a row. I see no reason not to continue to ride this bandwagon.
Click to expand...
I could see doing that if you go heavy on QB/TE...however, I feel as though the higher priced WRs are a little riskier (honestly, what's not to like about Decker, Robinson, Maclin), thereby leaving you with cash in hand.

 
Drafthorse said:
Tennessee_ATO said:
wyattroa said:
Tennessee_ATO said:
NixonMask said:
I think theres risk with both those guys this week for that reason. Carolina doesnt need to play at all, and if Russel took the game off the Seahawks would still be a TD favorite. The two QBs Im look at right now are Bortles and Stafford.
Click to expand...
I don't trust Stafford at all in cash, but I've been on the Bortles train all season. I'm actually kicking the tires on the Jags DST as a possible change-of-pace play. I usually subscribe to the "only play a good defense, don't chase match-ups with a weak defense", but Atlanta is absolutely horrible.
Click to expand...
For some reason Atlanta is a dumpster fire right now. Their new OC is not meshing well with matt ryan and company.
Click to expand...
Ryan looks horrible. I rode that dude a ton last year and tried to do it again earlier this season. For whatever reason, he's been incompetent for 6+ weeks now. I've avoided Julio like the plague for the entire second half. And they finally have a legit running back so you would think Ryan would be more efficient even if his usage rate dropped. Damnedest thing I've seen this season. I've just assumed he's been hiding an injury.
Click to expand...
During the MNF halftime show, Harrison made comment (paraphrasing) that RG3 and Ryan have the same problem- Kyle Shanahan. You gotta love that guy- say it for what it is!
Click to expand...
I agree with him

 
Sweet Love said:
Scoresman said:
The David Johnson/Shaun Draughn bargain bin special has made me money 2 weeks in a row. I see no reason not to continue to ride this bandwagon.
Click to expand...
I could see doing that if you go heavy on QB/TE...however, I feel as though the higher priced WRs are a little riskier (honestly, what's not to like about Decker, Robinson, Maclin), thereby leaving you with cash in hand.
Click to expand...
Id pay 11000 for OBJ.

But i agree in general.

 
Who has been playing the Thursday slate? Are the cut lines generally lower since people load up on the thursday game?

 
wyattroa said:
Who has been playing the Thursday slate? Are the cut lines generally lower since people load up on the thursday game?
Click to expand...
I play at least one Thurs-Mon cash lineup very week. I don't know why it happens, but generally I've found the cutlines to be a few points lower than Sun-Mon contests.

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
wyattroa said:
Who has been playing the Thursday slate? Are the cut lines generally lower since people load up on the thursday game?
Click to expand...
I play at least one Thurs-Mon cash lineup very week. I don't know why it happens, but generally I've found the cutlines to be a few points lower than Sun-Mon contests.
Click to expand...
It happens because of people who like seeing their name at the top of the leaderboards on Friday and Saturday and roster garbage lineups consisting of most or all Thursday game players.

Depending on injury situations, I play exclusively on the Thurs-Mon slate. If the Thursday game is a ####ty looking game like this week's game is, it's even more attractive. Cant wait to see the cash game teams loaded with Jameis, Tavon Austin, Vincent Jackson, etc.

 
Bobcat10 said:
Tennessee_ATO said:
wyattroa said:
Who has been playing the Thursday slate? Are the cut lines generally lower since people load up on the thursday game?
Click to expand...
I play at least one Thurs-Mon cash lineup very week. I don't know why it happens, but generally I've found the cutlines to be a few points lower than Sun-Mon contests.
Click to expand...
Agreed. Pretty much always lower.
Click to expand...
Agree too, but that may be a product of people's unwillingness to plug in questionable players on a Thu morning. For example, I believe last week Austin Sef-Jenkins ended up getting the call to officially play on Sunday. People loaded their rosters with him because he was so cheap on Sun Morning, however, few people had him in on their Thu rosters because no one knew whether he would play...granted, probably not the best example (since he did not perform), but the point I am trying to make is that you have more info on Sunday, therefore, the scores are higher (versus Thu)...however, everyone is going off the same information on Thursdays, so even though the cut line is lower on Thu, it does not mean there is any kind of advantage on playing Thu rather than Sun. In fact, I would think more of the hardcore players get in on the Thu contests and more of the casual guys come in for Sundays.

 
Scoresman said:
Tennessee_ATO said:
wyattroa said:
Who has been playing the Thursday slate? Are the cut lines generally lower since people load up on the thursday game?
Click to expand...
I play at least one Thurs-Mon cash lineup very week. I don't know why it happens, but generally I've found the cutlines to be a few points lower than Sun-Mon contests.
Click to expand...
It happens because of people who like seeing their name at the top of the leaderboards on Friday and Saturday and roster garbage lineups consisting of most or all Thursday game players.

Depending on injury situations, I play exclusively on the Thurs-Mon slate. If the Thursday game is a ####ty looking game like this week's game is, it's even more attractive. Cant wait to see the cash game teams loaded with Jameis, Tavon Austin, Vincent Jackson, etc.
Click to expand...
So I was replying as you were adding your point, and while I think mine is valid, you are onto something too with this stupid Thursday game loadup people seem to do...I just don't get it! Honestly, you are going to throw away money to see your name on a leaderboard for 48 hours??? Soooo, what percentage of a total Thu Cash/GPP do "we" think people do this? Is it 1%? 3%?

 
Sweet Love said:
Scoresman said:
Tennessee_ATO said:
wyattroa said:
Who has been playing the Thursday slate? Are the cut lines generally lower since people load up on the thursday game?
Click to expand...
I play at least one Thurs-Mon cash lineup very week. I don't know why it happens, but generally I've found the cutlines to be a few points lower than Sun-Mon contests.
Click to expand...
It happens because of people who like seeing their name at the top of the leaderboards on Friday and Saturday and roster garbage lineups consisting of most or all Thursday game players.

Depending on injury situations, I play exclusively on the Thurs-Mon slate. If the Thursday game is a ####ty looking game like this week's game is, it's even more attractive. Cant wait to see the cash game teams loaded with Jameis, Tavon Austin, Vincent Jackson, etc.
Click to expand...
So I was replying as you were adding your point, and while I think mine is valid, you are onto something too with this stupid Thursday game loadup people seem to do...I just don't get it! Honestly, you are going to throw away money to see your name on a leaderboard for 48 hours??? Soooo, what percentage of a total Thu Cash/GPP do "we" think people do this? Is it 1%? 3%?
Click to expand...
Depends where you cut-off your measurement. If someone plays 5 players from the Thursday game, is that crazy enough? 6 players? 7? I'll play anywhere from 20-30 games a week and maybe 1% of those have rosters of all Thursday players. So not much but still an edge. There are a lot more that have all but 1 or 2 spots filledwith Thursday players.

This week there's also a Saturday game so there may be less of this craziness in effect. But that game's supposed to be a dud too, fantasy-wise.

 
Random thoughts.

QB: Wilson vs. Newton - I'll be playing them both. I dont really like the cheap QB options and matchups this week. Sure, the Seahawks may not need to rely on Wilson much, but they've been in similar situations recently and haven't eased up at all towards the end of the games. I think they're trying to get their offense in a groove to get ready for the playoffs after a slow start to the year. There's also the ####### Cleveland coach who ran his mouth off about Wilson, which is sure to light a fire. Only thing that worries me about this game in general is that its going to be one of the slowest paced game of the week by a good margin. For Cam, I wont start worrying about him resting until the Panthers secure HFA. Until then, he's even more a focal point of their offense with Stewart I think out. If they're up 30-0 by halftime and Cam sits the second half, well, chances are Cam was responsible for the 30 points, so I'm ok with that.

RB: Charcandrick/Robinson/Johnson. That's my cash game rotation. I'm off Draughn at this point mainly due to the other cheap options with much higher ceilings. I mentioned above that I like to go all in on the Thurs-Mon slate, but the Charcandrick/Ware situation may prevent me from doing that this week. Adrian Peterson is a good, expensive option, but with all the cheap guys out there, I'm not on him at all. That's going to be a dreadfully slow-paced game as well, limiting upside.

WR: I really dont feel confident about the WR options this week. This is Julio's week, right? Right? Then there's Calvin Johnson who has a great matchup but when asked about his bum ankle he said "I'm feeling alright. Leave it at that". Way to be motivated Calvin. Either way, I have some shares of both of them. Also like Alshon, Demaryius, and A-Rob/Hurns. Lots of talk about Doug Baldwin and I do like him but feel like he has to regress at some point, right? Maybe not. I'm just finding it hard to fit him onto my teams. I always end up with enough money to upgrade to a guy like Calvin or Alshon and it seems dumb to favor Baldwin over them. Famous last words I guess.

TE: Equal shares Jordan Reed and Greg Olsen. Reed has a tough on-paper matchup but that hasn't stopped him yet this year, probably because they use him more as a wide receiver. I'm fading Walker completely against New England.

D: Seattle and New England all in. Seattle for obvious reasons. I see Tennessee having an absolute dreadful game. Their only weapon, Delanie Walker, will be the focal point of the Patriot's defense, leaving them with basically nothing.

Thanks for reading my blog. :nerd:

 
Where are all the triple ups for Thurs? FD leaves me scratching my head quite a bit. I've asked them before where certain contests are and they always claim they filled super early or whatever to make me feel like I messed up and that I need to enter them earlier. It's a load of crap. No way every triple and quintuple from $2-$25 has filled already.

 
Bobcat10 said:
Where are all the triple ups for Thurs? FD leaves me scratching my head quite a bit. I've asked them before where certain contests are and they always claim they filled super early or whatever to make me feel like I messed up and that I need to enter them earlier. It's a load of crap. No way every triple and quintuple from $2-$25 has filled already.
Click to expand...
Funny you say that because I went out Tuesday morning and there were none. Not one. Like Scoresman, I play the Thursday slate due to so many loading up on every player in the game. Needless to say, I have zero Thursday action this week.

 
Scoresman said:
TE: Equal shares Jordan Reed and Greg Olsen. Reed has a tough on-paper matchup but that hasn't stopped him yet this year, probably because they use him more as a wide receiver. I'm fading Walker completely against New England.
Click to expand...
Agree on Walker. NE defense pretty tough and I just don't think TEN will be able to sustain many drives. All you can hope for is a garbage TD at the end of the game. It is either Gronk or Gates for me.

 
pbandy1 said:
Scoresman said:
TE: Equal shares Jordan Reed and Greg Olsen. Reed has a tough on-paper matchup but that hasn't stopped him yet this year, probably because they use him more as a wide receiver. I'm fading Walker completely against New England.
Click to expand...
Agree on Walker. NE defense pretty tough and I just don't think TEN will be able to sustain many drives. All you can hope for is a garbage TD at the end of the game. It is either Gronk or Gates for me.
Click to expand...
Gates is capturing my attention with Green not practicing.

 
Calvin, Alshon, Olsen, all staples of my lineups have uncertain injury statuses. Makes me want to cancel all my Thursday cash lineups.

 
Worst that happens with that much uncertainty is they all play, you dont cash double ups, and have the money to play more small slate games on Sunday instead. Alot better than one or more of those guys not playing and sinking the whole lineup.

 
pbandy1 said:
Scoresman said:
TE: Equal shares Jordan Reed and Greg Olsen. Reed has a tough on-paper matchup but that hasn't stopped him yet this year, probably because they use him more as a wide receiver. I'm fading Walker completely against New England.
Click to expand...
Agree on Walker. NE defense pretty tough and I just don't think TEN will be able to sustain many drives. All you can hope for is a garbage TD at the end of the game. It is either Gronk or Gates for me.
Click to expand...
The Titans are horrible and have been from preseason on. The public's gross overreaction to the slightest positive thing has been funny to me. Yeah, Mariota is a keeper and Walker can play, but everything else on that offense, coaching included, is replacement level or worse.

 
I'm becoming concerned with David Dodds' projections. Travis Benjamin ranked 21st going against Sherman and Seattle D makes no sense. He literally might not get a catch. And Denard Robinson 22nd against Falcons 29th ranked run D is also a head-scratcher.

His projections have been so accurate for the past 5 seasons, but not so much this season.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Benjamin was getting tossed in a bunch of lineups in the generator, not just Dodds. I found it odd myself. I was basically plugging in a QB, K and D.

 
Looks like the crowd faded tonight's game more than others. I put 4 cash lineups together (Wilson, Cam, Brees, and Bortles) and used Gurley in one, hopefully he busts one in the 2nd H. He was owned twice as much percentage wise in the gpp I have him in.

 
Cash observations-

Popular:

QB- Wilson 30+

RB - David Johnson insane, Peterson 20+

WR- Mike Floyd 20+, Baldwin and Maclin 30+

TE- Reed 20+

Def- SEA 30+

Unpopular:

QB- Brees

WR- Benjamin, Cobb

TE- Gronk, Olsen

Def- NE, CAR

Gates, Denard, Watkins, Decker, Gostkowski, and Prater all pretty much in the teens.

 
I like J Brown even more than Floyd and even he was ~11% owned. I didn't realize the Cardinals would be so popular this week but I can't blame them.

 
DukeBroadway said:
In my gpps. Rivers less than 2% owned and D.Thomas just over 2%.
Click to expand...
I can't blame that percentage for D. Thomas. Last week against the Raiders I was expecting more, and PIT has been playing better since Antwon Blake was benched.

Apparently it is ~70% chance of rain for Seattle. I was right last week in saying to stay away from the Chiefs-Chargers game, if the weather report holds up this may be the week to fade Wilson and co. He will certainly be heavily owned so in GPPs it will give you a leg up if you fade... but Lawd the Browns are so bad.

I'm also liking AJ Green in a week where people will fade him because of Dalton's injury. Hue Jackson said they won't limit the offense and I kind of believe him. I know 49ers have played good D at home but I think this is when they break, the Browns still put up 24 on them last week and the Bengals are clearly much better than the Browns and should be able to run a lot of plays.

 
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