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****OFFICIAL 2017 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****

8,319 posts in this topic

4 minutes ago, garlicduck said:

As a 2nd-year player and with an ADP of 42 he finished as the #14 WR...I would call that pretty big. 

Good value relative to his draft position?  Sure.  Big year?  No.

Would you say Emmanuel Sanders has had "big years" the last two years?  Would you be happy paying an elite price for Hopkins if he was a perennial 76-1200-6 type guy?  Basically a very slightly better Emmanuel Sanders?

Edited by FreeBaGeL

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6 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Most people don't really consider 75-1200-6 a "big" year unless it came from a tight end.

He was a wr1 from week 1-16. Had a bad game week 17 in a week that does not count and finished as wr14 after week 17

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11 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Good value relative to his draft position?  Sure.  Big year?  No.

Would you say Emmanuel Sanders has had "big years" the last two years?  Would you be happy paying an elite price for Hopkins if he was a perennial 76-1200-6 type guy?  Basically a very slightly better Emmanuel Sanders?

So I guess if you finish outside the top-10, it's not "big."  But the comparison was with Robinson who's had 1 "big" year and next best was a #31.  Plus, Robinson had the same QB for both seasons so he can't blame it on that.

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3 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Good value relative to his draft position?  Sure.  Big year?  No.

Would you say Emmanuel Sanders has had "big years" the last two years?  Would you be happy paying an elite price for Hopkins if he was a perennial 76-1200-6 type guy?  Basically a very slightly better Emmanuel Sanders?

Pretty much my thought process. If you are ranking a wr as top 5 you aren't happy with 1200 and 6.

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5 hours ago, Warhogs said:

Pretty much my thought process. If you are ranking a wr as top 5 you aren't happy with 1200 and 6.

Okay, fair but this did not start off as a "ranking" thread but as a rant about who's more overrated, Robinson or Hopkins. 

If it was a ranking thread. Only AB, ODJ and Julio have been top-10 WRs every year for the last 3.  Jordy and Baldwin are the only 2 WRs who have finished top-10 twice the last 3 years, but they not even in discussion for top 15 Dynasty WRs, mostly due to age.  So, all the WRs being ranked from 5 on down have had 1 "big" year, or in the cases of Cooper and Watkins 0 "big" years. So, prepare to be "unhappy" a lot.  :-)

I always laugh when someone says that getting a certain player is a "steal" at #10 in the draft.  No player can ever be a steal as a top 10 pick, he is expected to put up stud numbers.     

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I would take Hopkins numbers from a 2nd year guy any day and be thrilled as hell

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17 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

If Cooks is $21, Robinson looks like a steal at $10.  What were your thoughts in moving him?

Well, I traded Robinson for Crowell and Moncrief. My thoughts on that deal were that Crowell is a FA, he is 24 years old, he rushed for nearly 1000 yards on the crappiest team in the NFL, and he catches a lot of passes. My receivers are now Evans $26, Cooks $21, Jeffries $6, Moncrief $1 plus I have lots of cap room. I happen to like Cooks, and I don't like the Jaguars getting better, I saw way too much Marquise Lee last year as well.

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2 hours ago, garlicduck said:

Okay, fair but this did not start off as a "ranking" thread but as a rant about who's more overrated, Robinson or Hopkins. 

If it was a ranking thread. Only AB, ODJ and Julio have been top-10 WRs every year for the last 3.  Jordy and Baldwin are the only 2 WRs who have finished top-10 twice the last 3 years, but they not even in discussion for top 15 Dynasty WRs, mostly due to age.  So, all the WRs being ranked from 5 on down have had 1 "big" year, or in the cases of Cooper and Watkins 0 "big" years. So, prepare to be "unhappy" a lot.  :-)

I always laugh when someone says that getting a certain player is a "steal" at #10 in the draft.  No player can ever be a steal as a top 10 pick, he is expected to put up stud numbers.     

I stand by my point that I see little value difference between Hopkins and Robinson at this point in their early careers.  Thus for me, Hopkins is more over rated because he costs probably a full round more in start up drafts to acquire.  It's really the issue you have when dynasty owners were trading value equal to 3 first round picks for Hopkins last year.  They are looking at his age and coming off a big season and they are projecting him to give them 1500-10+ each year for the next 6-8 years so they are disappointed.  Again, my statement is that there isn't much difference between Hopkins and Robinson other than one guy is a year older and has one more good season.  I believe in Robinson enough to think he has just as good a chance as Hopkins to string together good seasons for the next 6-8 years but he is cheaper.

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10 minutes ago, Warhogs said:

I stand by my point that I see little value difference between Hopkins and Robinson at this point in their early careers.  Thus for me, Hopkins is more over rated because he costs probably a full round more in start up drafts to acquire.  It's really the issue you have when dynasty owners were trading value equal to 3 first round picks for Hopkins last year.  They are looking at his age and coming off a big season and they are projecting him to give them 1500-10+ each year for the next 6-8 years so they are disappointed.  Again, my statement is that there isn't much difference between Hopkins and Robinson other than one guy is a year older and has one more good season.  I believe in Robinson enough to think he has just as good a chance as Hopkins to string together good seasons for the next 6-8 years but he is cheaper.

Okay, but after break out years for both players in 2015, Hopkins' ADP was #4 and Robinson's ADP was #7.

Now, the only ADP I can find DLF January Mock has Robinson going #9 and Hopkins going #10.  So, not only is Robinson not "cheaper" but I see him as more of a risk because he doesn't have the track record of Hopkins or the excuse of Osweiler.  I would agree that IF you can get Robinson a round later that would be a good deal but I don't think it happens. 

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49 minutes ago, garlicduck said:

Okay, but after break out years for both players in 2015, Hopkins' ADP was #4 and Robinson's ADP was #7.

Now, the only ADP I can find DLF January Mock has Robinson going #9 and Hopkins going #10.  So, not only is Robinson not "cheaper" but I see him as more of a risk because he doesn't have the track record of Hopkins or the excuse of Osweiler.  I would agree that IF you can get Robinson a round later that would be a good deal but I don't think it happens. 

Just look at the poll they are doing in this forum now.  That is what I am basing my position on.  No way is just about anyone taking Robinson before Hopkins.  Hopkins went #10 overall.  It looks like Robinson might have a chance to go #14.  He might go more in that 15-18 range.   In reality we can split our differences and Robinson might only be half a round cheaper.

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5 minutes ago, Warhogs said:

Just look at the poll they are doing in this forum now.  That is what I am basing my position on.  No way is just about anyone taking Robinson before Hopkins.  Hopkins went #10 overall.  It looks like Robinson might have a chance to go #14.  He might go more in that 15-18 range.   In reality we can split our differences and Robinson might only be half a round cheaper.

I looked at the only source I had - even with that poll, if you take out the rookie picks, you are talking 2-3 picks - same as last year.  I'll take Hopkins at that price over Robinson.

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On 2/13/2017 at 7:34 PM, menobrown said:

It's actually pretty bleak when you look at it. I used 300 carries as the limit and YPC 3.9 or less for first two years and in both cases I used totals, not just one season. So any RB who first two years in the league got 300 carries and averaged 3.9 yards or less after two seasons.

It's not a strong list. Forte was probably best fantasy back of the group and what made him so good was receiving.  Garrison Hearst, McGahee and Ricky Williams were other RB's who had solid careers that fit this criteria, which went all the way back to 1960.

But, all of those RB's I mentioned had a higher YPC then Gordon after two seasons. Looking for a RB with less YPC than Gordon that fit this criteria and the best fantasy RB I saw was Reggie Bush, who again was not so good because of his running most of his career.

 

I forget where I saw it, but I remember seeing somewhere during the season that Gordon had the worst average of yards behind the line of scrimmage at first contact in the league. Meaning he was meeting a defender in the backfield deeper and more often than any other RB in the league. Considering his volume, his ypc is actually more impressive than it is troublesome for me. 

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15 hours ago, One More Rep said:

Maybe a little but Moncrief is  really overrated 

Well, the 1.9 isn't chop liver, so in my mind that trade looks about even.  Should be able to get one of the top TEs, or maybe Smith-Schuster (I'm not a fan), or Cooper Kupp, or one of the 2nd tier RBs with that pick.

Edited by JohnnyU

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23 hours ago, Zyphros said:

10 team 2QB 3WR 2RB 2TE 2Flex .5ppr

I'm very sure that I got the short end of my own trade offer, just posting it because it happened

I traded away:  Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Devin Funchess 1.10, 2018 1st, 2018 3rd

I got:  Amari Cooper, 1.04, 2.02

I was 13-1 through the season lost in the first round of playoffs and still have a very strong team.  Got younger by a lot, and AB is likely going to steadily decline on value from here on out.  Also really like 2 guys after the RB's so top4 is my tier break for rookie draft.  

If you have the depth to give Brown and DT to get younger, good deal.  The picks you received are better than the ones you gave away.  I could see trying to hold on to 1.10 or the 2018 1st, but it could also be a deal breaker.  Most times, teams with the high picks are not going to take on an aging player who alone will not make them a contender.

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2 hours ago, Warhogs said:

Just look at the poll they are doing in this forum now.  That is what I am basing my position on.  No way is just about anyone taking Robinson before Hopkins.  Hopkins went #10 overall.  It looks like Robinson might have a chance to go #14.  He might go more in that 15-18 range.   In reality we can split our differences and Robinson might only be half a round cheaper.

That poll specifically as it relates to Robinson is a bit misleading. He was left off the player listing until after the first 11 spots had been voted on (behind the likes of Freeman and Hilton and others with DLF ADP well below him). My sense is he would have challenged starting at #9 if he hadn't been missed from the poll to begin with. Personally I think consensus on the two is very similar (late 1/early 2). I'd be very surprised to see Robinson slip to mid 2 on average or even be a half round off from Hopkins who went at #10.5 (tied with 1.1).

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33 minutes ago, jeaton6 said:

That poll specifically as it relates to Robinson is a bit misleading. He was left off the player listing until after the first 11 spots had been voted on (behind the likes of Freeman and Hilton and others with DLF ADP well below him). My sense is he would have challenged starting at #9 if he hadn't been missed from the poll to begin with. Personally I think consensus on the two is very similar (late 1/early 2). I'd be very surprised to see Robinson slip to mid 2 on average or even be a half round off from Hopkins who went at #10.5 (tied with 1.1).

Players get added to the poll as people ask for them because they want to vote for them.   Robinson wasn't in the poll because no one was considering him yet, not vice versa. 

Just about everywhere I've seen Hopkins has considerably higher value than Robinson. Even right here in this thread where Hopkins has pulled in more in trades. 

Personally I prefer Hopkins because I think he's probably a solid but not great wr long term, whereas I fear that Robinson is more a Braylon Edwards type who is simply a bust long term. But both guys have mediocre career per target stats well behind most of the truly elite WRs that they were being valued alongside a year ago. 

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Don't know if it helps, but in the deal where I gave Dalvin Cook for Hopkins and Gio, I was also given the option of ARob or Dez.

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2 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Players get added to the poll as people ask for them because they want to vote for them.   Robinson wasn't in the poll because no one was considering him yet, not vice versa. 

Just about everywhere I've seen Hopkins has considerably higher value than Robinson. Even right here in this thread where Hopkins has pulled in more in trades. 

Personally I prefer Hopkins because I think he's probably a solid but not great wr long term, whereas I fear that Robinson is more a Braylon Edwards type who is simply a bust long term. But both guys have mediocre career per target stats well behind most of the truly elite WRs that they were being valued alongside a year ago. 

I don't agree. It was pretty clearly an oversight that he wasn't listed sooner. Sometimes people just forget about players. It happens all the time when guys here are doing their top 20 lists. He's is likely going to win #14.The fact that he was 2nd at #13 and 3rd when he was first added at #12 (over other guys who had been listed on the poll for a while) and listed at the bottom of the listing  tells me he should have been listed sooner. 

I haven't seen many trades where Hopkins is pulling in considerably more value than Robinson.

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1 hour ago, jeaton6 said:

I don't agree. It was pretty clearly an oversight that he wasn't listed sooner. Sometimes people just forget about players. It happens all the time when guys here are doing their top 20 lists. He's is likely going to win #14.The fact that he was 2nd at #13 and 3rd when he was first added at #12 (over other guys who had been listed on the poll for a while) and listed at the bottom of the listing  tells me he should have been listed sooner. 

I haven't seen many trades where Hopkins is pulling in considerably more value than Robinson.

I'm not sure what your point is here.  The original point you were objecting to was that Hopkins went at 10 and Robinson at 14 or later.  Robinson was on the poll at 12 and 13 but didn't win.  Are you contending that if he were an option at 10 he would have won, even though he didn't win at 12 or 13?

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26 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I'm not sure what your point is here.  The original point you were objecting to was that Hopkins went at 10 and Robinson at 14 or later.  Robinson was on the poll at 12 and 13 but didn't win.  Are you contending that if he were an option at 10 he would have won, even though he didn't win at 12 or 13?

Agreed.  When ARob or anyone else was added was irrelevant unless you think he would have won a poll that occurred before he was added.  Note that even now, at poll #14 where he has the top slot on the list and is certainly a familiar name having been in three straight polls, ARob has only a single vote lead over Gronk....who was added after ARob, BTW...   

Also note that the players selected with the first 12 picks were landslide winners over the players remaining afterwards.   

Even after the top 13 players have been eliminated from the competition and AROB has the top slot on the list, he has only currently garnered 13 votes in the current poll with 65 votes have been cast (the exact same number of votes he had last poll, BTW).  Six other players are within 8 votes of him (His lead is 1,3,6, 6, 7 & 8) .

By comparison, NONE of the top 12 players selected ever had a single player currently on the list ever come within 8 votes of them with the exception of Sammy Watkins being only seven votes behind Nuke (10-3) in poll #9 (they finished 4th and 5th in that poll).  

The community has spoken and ARob is exactly where he belongs... in contention for the 14th spot overall (including rookie picks 1.1 and 1.2), and the 12th player taken.

Further, there appears to be a significant tier break after Gurley.

 

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Gave: Davante Adam's and Jamison Crowder 

Received: Sammy Watkins and John Brown.

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8 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I'm not sure what your point is here.  The original point you were objecting to was that Hopkins went at 10 and Robinson at 14 or later.  Robinson was on the poll at 12 and 13 but didn't win.  Are you contending that if he were an option at 10 he would have won, even though he didn't win at 12 or 13?

I don't know if he would have won. Probably not. But I do contend that the 3 way race would have been a 4 way race and that the gap between the two is negligible.

The point is people would have considered him if his name had been on the list. I disagree with the notion that he wasn't on the list because no one considered him and I don't see 10 vs 14 as a significant value drop even given my assertion that him being left off the list may have impacted his community ranking. 

My original objection was to the half round + difference between the two and the idea that just about no one would take Robinson over Hopkins. I think the assertion is flawed because the data it was based on is flawed and this isn't taking anything away from these polls because they're great. I just happen to believe in this instance Robinson and I guess Gronk may have been short changed a bit.

 

 

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5 hours ago, Brooklyn70 said:

Gave: Davante Adam's and Jamison Crowder 

Received: Sammy Watkins and John Brown.

Watkins is the best player in the deal, but I wouldn't be surprised if Adams and crowder outscore Watkins on their own. Better qbs, better situation. I feel better about it if Tyrod stays, but if they go into next year with cardale jones or a rookie Watkins will be waiting around for his shot at free agency. 

Long story short I'll take Adams/crowder.

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6 hours ago, Brooklyn70 said:

Gave: Davante Adam's and Jamison Crowder 

Received: Sammy Watkins and John Brown.

Sammy

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8 hours ago, Brooklyn70 said:

Gave: Davante Adam's and Jamison Crowder 

Received: Sammy Watkins and John Brown.

Pretty even for me.

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8 hours ago, Brooklyn70 said:

Gave: Davante Adam's and Jamison Crowder 

Received: Sammy Watkins and John Brown.

Sammy

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6 hours ago, jeaton6 said:

I don't know if he would have won. Probably not. But I do contend that the 3 way race would have been a 4 way race and that the gap between the two is negligible.

The point is people would have considered him if his name had been on the list. I disagree with the notion that he wasn't on the list because no one considered him and I don't see 10 vs 14 as a significant value drop even given my assertion that him being left off the list may have impacted his community ranking. 

My original objection was to the half round + difference between the two and the idea that just about no one would take Robinson over Hopkins. I think the assertion is flawed because the data it was based on is flawed and this isn't taking anything away from these polls because they're great. I just happen to believe in this instance Robinson and I guess Gronk may have been short changed a bit.

 

 

You are certainly free to do your own polls however you would like.  

On the idea that it would have been a four way race... the three all had 24 or more votes facing each other... Robinson, even after all of them were eliminated from competition/no longer a voting option, only got 17 votes.  

Its simply not even close.

Edited by Brisco54
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14 hours ago, Brooklyn70 said:

Gave: Davante Adam's and Jamison Crowder 

Received: Sammy Watkins and John Brown.

I'm really high on Adams. I like Sammy but with the uncertainty around him, I'll take the Adams side.

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8 hours ago, Brisco54 said:

You are certainly free to do your own polls however you would like.  

On the idea that it would have been a four way race... the three all had 24 or more votes facing each other... Robinson, even after all of them were eliminated from competition/no longer a voting option, only got 17 votes.  

Its simply not even close.

Yes I do understand this but there are always inconsistencies from poll to poll as well. For instance in poll 8 Gurley got 16 votes to 1.1 and Hopkins 6 and 4 respectively. Freeman and Hilton received 3 votes each in this poll as well. Then poll 9 Gurley still has16 but 1.1 and Hopkins jump to 11 and 10 and somehow Freeman now only gets 1 and Hilton 0.  So Hopkins picks up some votes due to people shifting votes from an option no longer available and possibly a mix shift in who was voting. How do we account for Hilton and Freeman losing votes and Hopkins/1.1 all of a sudden catching up with Gurley so fast and then in later polls surpassing him?   The overall point in all this is we really don't know what would have happened because from one poll to the next there isn't always a logical explanation of the results. And I contend that a guy who won #14 should have been part of the voting process earlier. Whereas there are 5+ guys who were added several polls ahead of him who are still hanging out there with little/marginal support. It is what it is and like I said the polls are great overall and i appreciate Brisco for doing these. They are very beneficial for the community. Thank you.

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All these polls....dishonest media......Damn fake voters, most of the people voting in that poll are dead or voted twice, once on their phone and once with their laptop. Probably illegally voting from Russia. What kind of name is Brisco anyway? You spell that with  three ohs and two yous?

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I've been offered Paul Perkins RB NYG for draft pick 1.07.

 

Aside from it being very early in putting together a draft list for the upcoming rookie draft, but I would think that getting the 3-4th RB or 3-4th WR in the upcoming draft would be more valuable than Paul Perkins.

 

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8 minutes ago, cdwood said:

I've been offered Paul Perkins RB NYG for draft pick 1.07.

 

Aside from it being very early in putting together a draft list for the upcoming rookie draft, but I would think that getting the 3-4th RB or 3-4th WR in the upcoming draft would be more valuable than Paul Perkins.

 

That is a bad trade for you. If you haven't rejected the trade yet you are moving too slow.

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On 2/17/2017 at 0:18 AM, Brooklyn70 said:

Gave: Davante Adam's and Jamison Crowder 

Received: Sammy Watkins and John Brown.

Adams is no separation QB dependent WR and Crowder is a really good pure slot WR and those usually have limited upside unless it's Welker.

Watkins is the supereme talent in this deal and his injury situation is overblown.

I don't use the "this is not close" carelessly, but to me this is not close on the Watkins side.

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On 2/16/2017 at 10:18 PM, Brooklyn70 said:

Gave: Davante Adam's and Jamison Crowder 

Received: Sammy Watkins and John Brown.

Give me Watkins, even if Brown was on the other side.

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3 hours ago, cdwood said:

I've been offered Paul Perkins RB NYG for draft pick 1.07.

 

Aside from it being very early in putting together a draft list for the upcoming rookie draft, but I would think that getting the 3-4th RB or 3-4th WR in the upcoming draft would be more valuable than Paul Perkins.

 

Yeah, I'd definitely pass on this offer.  Perkins was a 5th round pick and looked okay and may even start this year with Jennings gone.  But I'm not sure he's more than a committee guy. 

However, at 1.07 you will have a pick between McCaffrey/Mixon/Kamara/Foreman, all should be gone by the second round and all have more stud-potential.

 

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4 hours ago, menobrown said:

Adams is no separation QB dependent WR and Crowder is a really good pure slot WR and those usually have limited upside unless it's Welker.

Watkins is the supereme talent in this deal and his injury situation is overblown.

I don't use the "this is not close" carelessly, but to me this is not close on the Watkins side.

So you have to depend on one of the best qbs in the game. Why does that knock Adams? Crowder has put up consistent numbers the last 2 years. I'm on board with the overblown injury prone scare, but if the bills are going back to the well for a qb in a weak qb class then I'm ready to sell. I'm ready to be wrong.

 

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47 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

So you have to depend on one of the best qbs in the game. Why does that knock Adams? Crowder has put up consistent numbers the last 2 years. I'm on board with the overblown injury prone scare, but if the bills are going back to the well for a qb in a weak qb class then I'm ready to sell. I'm ready to be wrong.

 

Because the guy he was traded for is a big enough talent to not depend on a QB. Because QB/WR pairings don't always last as long as we anticipate.

Crowder is a very solid WR3 type, could even be in conversation for best slot WR in the NFL  but I don't think he has as much upside as John Brown and Crowder(and Brown for that matter) might be in QB woe soon themselves but those pieces are not why I strongly favor the Watkins side.

ETA I want to say as of now I'll even have Watkins rated well over Adams next season, even with his QB situation murky.

Edited by menobrown

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12 team PPR

Team A gets Jordan Reed, Jarod McKinnion, pick 2.13

Team B gets Keanan Allen, pick 2.8

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50 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Because the guy he was traded for is a big enough talent to not depend on a QB.

Yea, um no. I recall Fitz being rendered pretty irrelevant by incompetent QB play back in 2012. 

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I like Watkins, but he is pretty easily the most overrated of the highly rated players. 

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