Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Gottabesweet

****OFFICIAL 2019 IN-SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****

Recommended Posts

20 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

 

Ben has had better PPG in 2014 and 2016 and better weapons trending forward.  Rivera has also said Cam needs to "evolve" and will be running less.  Age hardly matters in 1 QB leagues because it's so easy to find a quality QB.  I'd take Ben as well all other things being equal and just figure out the longer term when someone else is dumping an aging QB for peanuts.

Ben having better ppg in his Cam's two down seasons is the main selling point? I agree he has better weapons but Benjamin was returning from an ACL injury and Funchess showed some progress as a rookie. I think Carolina may add a WR in free agency as well.

While Cam may run less, I don't think his running ability which is a real difference maker (in fantasy and in real football) is just going to go away.

I think the bigger issue however is not just Ben's advanced age (agree that age doesn't mean as much for a QB in dynasty), but the inability to stay healthy that comes with that age. Ben has shown that he will miss a few games a season the last couple of years (which is why you used ppg in 2016) - do you expect him to miss less time at 36+?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Matt's Eagles said:

20 team PPR dynasty deal

Team A gets Allen Robinson, pick 3.11

Team B gets Kevin White, Martavis Bryant, Caroo, pick 4.08

Robinson by a lot. You're betting on Bryant coming back at the same level and staying clean. Would take that bet with WR2 types or elite prospects but not WR1 types.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12 Team PPR

1.2 for 1.6, 1.11, 2.6, 2.11.

The guy selling 1.2  has a lot of work to do but this seemed cheap to me.

Edited by jeaton6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, jeaton6 said:

12 Team PPR

1.2 for 1.6, 1.11, 2.6, 2.11.

The guy selling 1.2  has a lot of work to do but this seemed cheap to me.

I agree. Even with this class being so deep I think I like the 1.02 side here. I mean, i suppose if he is just totally gutting a team and has like 1 or 2 solid pieces at RB already, i could kinda see it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Pwingles said:

I agree. Even with this class being so deep I think I like the 1.02 side here. I mean, i suppose if he is just totally gutting a team and has like 1 or 2 solid pieces at RB already, i could kinda see it.

His only top 100 players are DJ and Shepard. He needs depth but don't think he spent much time shopping. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jeaton6 said:

His only top 100 players are DJ and Shepard. He needs depth but don't think he spent much time shopping. 

yeah thats not enough pieces for me to come off the 1.02 there

there will be solid players at the 6 but you miss out on cook or fournette

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FFPC, TE premium:

Gave: Jordan Reed

Got: 1.2

I love Reed as much as anyone but I have some other young TE's, injury risk and quality of player I anticipate at 1.2 but probably biggest reason is injury risk.

 

Here is interesting FFPC rules league trade last night I think people would be interested in as it's a player I know a lot of people are trying to value, I'm not involved and  both owners are really good so this is not two fools making a trade:

Team A gave: Tyrek Hill

Team B gave: 1.12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Ben having better ppg in his Cam's two down seasons is the main selling point? I agree he has better weapons but Benjamin was returning from an ACL injury and Funchess showed some progress as a rookie. I think Carolina may add a WR in free agency as well.

While Cam may run less, I don't think his running ability which is a real difference maker (in fantasy and in real football) is just going to go away.

I think the bigger issue however is not just Ben's advanced age (agree that age doesn't mean as much for a QB in dynasty), but the inability to stay healthy that comes with that age. Ben has shown that he will miss a few games a season the last couple of years (which is why you used ppg in 2016) - do you expect him to miss less time at 36+?

I used PPG in all three years because that's a much more relevant number.  I don't care if a guy misses a couple of games, I still get to start someone else so I'm not taking a blank and it's easy enough to find a quality backup QB.  But the games he does play he scores better on average than Cam.  Yes, him having better PPG is the main selling point because points in a given week is what wins you games in my leagues.  You say Cam's "down years" but I say 2015 was the outlier, it's the only season in his last 4 with over 24 TD's and/or over 6 rushing TD's. 

I should probably clarify - I wouldn't trade Cam for Ben straight up due strictly to the value aspect.  I know someone would pay more than just Ben for Cam so I'd take advantage of that.  But straight up as a QB for my roster I want Ben.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Braktastic said:

12 Team PPR

Team A: Gives Paul Perkins, Tyler Ervin; Team B: Gets Tyreek Hill

i like perkins but gimme Hill if for no other reason than to capitalize on his value and flip him right now

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Braktastic said:

12 Team PPR

Team A: Gives Paul Perkins, Tyler Ervin; Team B: Gets Tyreek Hill

I'll take the "get all, give none" that B has.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

14 team PPR devy league. The usual devys from all classes are owned.

Gave: Chubb, 2.01, CPatt, Ervin, Devalve

Got: 1.01 (best available now: Mixon, Foreman, Cannon?)

Giving up a guy like Chubb was hard but I really like the flexibility of the pick in comparison, I'd hate to be holding Chubb if he doesn't get back to 100% like it seems many assume he will. Chubb has a very high ceiling but I like the safety of the 1st overall for my team. He's a scumbag but I'd be lying if I didn't admit that Mixon going pro today is what made me finally offer this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, menobrown said:

FFPC, TE premium:

Gave: Jordan Reed

Got: 1.2

I love Reed as much as anyone but I have some other young TE's, injury risk and quality of player I anticipate at 1.2 but probably biggest reason is injury risk.

 

Here is interesting FFPC rules league trade last night I think people would be interested in as it's a player I know a lot of people are trying to value, I'm not involved and  both owners are really good so this is not two fools making a trade:

Team A gave: Tyrek Hill

Team B gave: 1.12

Pick in both deals

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, One More Rep said:

Pick in both deals

With the necessary caveat about injury, I am pretty certain that next August Tyrrek Hill will be ranked higher in dynasty than any rookie drafted outside of the first 8 picks.  I know this is a deep draft, but we are talking the 12th best rookie in it.

The sad truth is that 4-6 rookies taken in the 1st round of dynasty drafts in 2017 will never achieve the level of success that Hill already has.  Even if Hill regresses say 20%, he will still be worth 1.12 as a proven commodity.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Brisco54 said:

With the necessary caveat about injury, I am pretty certain that next August Tyrrek Hill will be ranked higher in dynasty than any rookie drafted outside of the first 8 picks.  I know this is a deep draft, but we are talking the 12th best rookie in it.

The sad truth is that 4-6 rookies taken in the 1st round of dynasty drafts in 2017 will never achieve the level of success that Hill already has.  Even if Hill regresses say 20%, he will still be worth 1.12 as a proven commodity.

Yep, that's why I'm not selling for 1.12.  On the surface it sounds sexy to get a 1st for a guy you probably got on the wire for min bid, but too many people fall in the trap of "it only cost me X".  If your house only cost you 100k but was appraised at 350k would you all of a sudden be looking to sell it a 250k "because I'll make a 150k profit"?  Of course not, you're going to sell it for every penny you can get for it.  If that's only 320k so be it, or if it's 470k because you live in DC and those people are insane then by all mean go for it.

Every league has 1-2 owners that just don't value picks much and if I'm moving Hill I'm going to find that guy in each and get more.  If Hill were in this draft I'd probably rank him at WR3 which put him about 1.07 in PPR return yardage leagues so there's little reason to sell for less.  He's got as much upside as Davis or Williams does (Hill was WR7 in one of my leagues) and a pretty solid floor.  Find the guy that drafted Treadwell last year and offer him Hill for his 1.06 (or his 1.11 + Treadwell!).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Brisco54 said:

With the necessary caveat about injury, I am pretty certain that next August Tyrrek Hill will be ranked higher in dynasty than any rookie drafted outside of the first 8 picks.  I know this is a deep draft, but we are talking the 12th best rookie in it.

The sad truth is that 4-6 rookies taken in the 1st round of dynasty drafts in 2017 will never achieve the level of success that Hill already has.  Even if Hill regresses say 20%, he will still be worth 1.12 as a proven commodity.

The pick is also an asset that is only going to increase in value the closer we get to rookie drafts. It's possible that it can be flipped for a safer WR than Hill. I'll admit I didn't catch enough Chiefs' games to garner a strong opinion on Hill either way - but I could see both sides of this deal. Sometimes these "gimmicky" type players burst on the scene and then settle back into their smaller roles. Like I said, perhaps I'm being a bit unfair on Hill because I did not see him enough, but the general impression I got is that he's more of a Tavon Autsin type than a traditional WR.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

The pick is also an asset that is only going to increase in value the closer we get to rookie drafts. It's possible that it can be flipped for a safer WR than Hill. I'll admit I didn't catch enough Chiefs' games to garner a strong opinion on Hill either way - but I could see both sides of this deal. Sometimes these "gimmicky" type players burst on the scene and then settle back into their smaller roles. Like I said, perhaps I'm being a bit unfair on Hill because I did not see him enough, but the general impression I got is that he's more of a Tavon Autsin type than a traditional WR.

Don't watch them, it'll hurt.  Just watch the box scores and collect your points.  Hill was WR7.  He manufactures points far better than Austin.  His floor is much safer because he's got a QB that lives for high floors and even if he's rushing/catching less then he'll be returning more. 

I definitely agree the pick appreciates but in my experience later picks don't really pick up as much steam until they are OTC.  It's those looking to get whoever "slides" to 5 or trying to trade up into 1.02 to get Cook/Fournette that really get silly.  2017's depth will help once we know everyone that's in/out but I think that remains pretty static.  I do like moving picks once they are OTC because you really maximize value at that point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Hankmoody said:

Don't watch them, it'll hurt.  Just watch the box scores and collect your points.  Hill was WR7.  He manufactures points far better than Austin.  His floor is much safer because he's got a QB that lives for high floors and even if he's rushing/catching less then he'll be returning more. 

I definitely agree the pick appreciates but in my experience later picks don't really pick up as much steam until they are OTC.  It's those looking to get whoever "slides" to 5 or trying to trade up into 1.02 to get Cook/Fournette that really get silly.  2017's depth will help once we know everyone that's in/out but I think that remains pretty static.  I do like moving picks once they are OTC because you really maximize value at that point.

Hill was not WR7 in any of my ppr leagues (WR24 in most, WR31 in one) so that's also a disconnect. What's your scoring system that lands him at WR7 because my leagues are all fairly "normal". 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Hill was not WR7 in any of my ppr leagues (WR24 in most, WR31 in one) so that's also a disconnect. What's your scoring system that lands him at WR7 because my leagues are all fairly "normal". 

Full PPR, return yardage at .04 per yard (1 per 25 yards).  I actually made a slight mistake, I usually sort by PPG in which case he'd be WR9.  He was WR7 in overall scoring which I don't really consider.

It should be noted I'm not suggesting Hill is a "safe bet" by any stretch.  He's a rookie that no one had any film on, he scored from distance which is very difficult to predict or count on, and he has the jolly red giant calling plays.  He's prime to regress, but my main point is he also has a ton of room to regress to while maintaining value.  I don't think anyone expects or even dreams of WR7 numbers from him but he could easily end up in the 15-20 range and provide plenty of value for the price. 

But if he does maintain....

edit:  So I did the math for return yards.  Hill had 384 KRY and 592 PRY for a total of 976.  That's 39.04 points for the season, which is 2.44 PPG.  WIthout those yards (but keeping the return TD points) he'd be at WR21 in that league.  If the league doesn't score return TD's that drops him to WR35.  Wow, big impact, so he can have some pretty wildly varying values based on league parameters.

Edited by Hankmoody

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Team A gets - Shady McCoy

Team B gets - Kennan Allen, McKinnon, and a 2017 3rd round pick (I think #23)

10 teamer, non PPR

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, matttyl said:

Team A gets - Shady McCoy

Team B gets - Kennan Allen, McKinnon, and a 2017 3rd round pick (I think #23)

10 teamer, non PPR

I'd imagine most people would rather have Allen because of age and potential, but I'd rather have Shady.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I'd imagine most people would rather have Allen because of age and potential, but I'd rather have Shady.

Seems more reasonable in this format 10 team non-PPR than in a 12 team full or half PPR. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Did not involve my team, PPR league 

Team A gets: AJ Green, Ingram, Crowell, Eli Manning

Team B gets: David Johnson, C. Meredith, McKinnon, Burkhead

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, CabinFever said:

Did not involve my team, PPR league 

Team A gets: AJ Green, Ingram, Crowell, Eli Manning

Team B gets: David Johnson, C. Meredith, McKinnon, Burkhead

 

 

Team B

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, CabinFever said:

Did not involve my team, PPR league 

Team A gets: AJ Green, Ingram, Crowell, Eli Manning

Team B gets: David Johnson, C. Meredith, McKinnon, Burkhead

 

 

Seems cheap for DJ.

ETA: Would probably take the DJ side even if it didn't include the other players, and those guys aren't fodder.

Edited by FreeBaGeL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Seems cheap for DJ.

ETA: Would probably take the DJ side even if it didn't include the other players, and those guys aren't fodder.

I agree

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seems like a fair deal to me. I would probably rather have a team with Green and the 2 RB2, but I am not surprised to be in the minority. Having one of the 3 elite RB is definitely a big plus short term and no guarantee Green is relevant longer. But for Green's side, he actually led the league in PPG PPR if you throw out the game he got injured on the first series. Not sure DJ's 20 TD or his 80 receptions is sustainable, although I expect him to still be elite and put similar or slightly more points to Green. Ultimately I have slightly more confidence Green will have more elite years.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

The pick is also an asset that is only going to increase in value the closer we get to rookie drafts. It's possible that it can be flipped for a safer WR than Hill. I'll admit I didn't catch enough Chiefs' games to garner a strong opinion on Hill either way - but I could see both sides of this deal. Sometimes these "gimmicky" type players burst on the scene and then settle back into their smaller roles. Like I said, perhaps I'm being a bit unfair on Hill because I did not see him enough, but the general impression I got is that he's more of a Tavon Autsin type than a traditional WR.

Its important that you separate hype from performance... Tavon Austin and Cordarelle Patterson both have had major hype from the start... they were both top three rookie picks in dynasty drafts... and they disappointed because the performance never lived up to the hype.  Any comparison to them is pejorative as a result.

However, Tyreek Hill is performance before the hype.  Unlike Austin or Patterson, where coaches tried to force a way to use them because of the draft pick investment, Hill earned his increased use by objective positive performance.  With Patterson & Austin, coaches quickly realized that building offenses around gimmick players just doesn't provide wins.  So as the offenses inevitably revert back to more traditional schemes, their opportunities (and value) dwindle.

Reid did not build an offense around Hill.... no, Hill performed in an offense that already existed, albeit with a different playcalling pattern.  All he needed was the opportunity caused by Maclin's injury to showcase his value.

Thus, unlike Tavon Austin, Tyreek Hill does not have the same low reversionary floor.  

I think his comparably high floor puts Tyreek Hill's value somewhere between the 14th-16th pick in the upcoming draft all by itself.  Then I believe even a conservative view of his ceiling raises that value to the second half of the first round (1.7-1.12)

Since I always hedge my bets when trading, I would not trade him for anything less than 1.6 and I would happily give any pick after 1.10 to acquire him. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, thriftyrocker said:

Seems like a fair deal to me. I would probably rather have a team with Green and the 2 RB2, but I am not surprised to be in the minority. Having one of the 3 elite RB is definitely a big plus short term and no guarantee Green is relevant longer. But for Green's side, he actually led the league in PPG PPR if you throw out the game he got injured on the first series. Not sure DJ's 20 TD or his 80 receptions is sustainable, although I expect him to still be elite and put similar or slightly more points to Green. Ultimately I have slightly more confidence Green will have more elite years.

I am with you TR.... I hate putting too many eggs into a single pair of ACLs

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, matttyl said:

Team A gets - Shady McCoy

Team B gets - Kennan Allen, McKinnon, and a 2017 3rd round pick (I think #23)

10 teamer, non PPR

Allen

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, CabinFever said:

Did not involve my team, PPR league 

Team A gets: AJ Green, Ingram, Crowell, Eli Manning

Team B gets: David Johnson, C. Meredith, McKinnon, Burkhead

 

 

Green side for me

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If tyreek hill blows up in kc, he will have overcome

1) andy reid's limited true wr1 udage

2) alex smith's limited true wr1 usage

3) kansas city's limited true wr1 usage 

4) his own low draft status

5) reduxing his high variance plays

6) maclin's return

7) the presumptive return of charles, ware, or some other rb1 as the focus of reid's offense

I would be happy to gamble on him cheap, but his price went up faster than his value. As a rule of thimb, when that happens, try to buy cheap but let the guy who drafted him own the risk of him continuing to exceed expectations. Kudos to his owners if he continues to perform.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Was just offered Amari Cooper for Gronk and Keenan Allen.  

It's a heavy keeper (6 guys) and I already have Leveon, David Johnson, Julio, Hopkins, Ajayi, and Michael Thomas, so I'm looking to do some 2 for 1 deals to upgrade my top 6.

I don't think that I can trust Gronk's health going forward.  I hate to lose him, but he did bunk for me this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Hurl Bruce said:

Was just offered Amari Cooper for Gronk and Keenan Allen.  

It's a heavy keeper (6 guys) and I already have Leveon, David Johnson, Julio, Hopkins, Ajayi, and Michael Thomas, so I'm looking to do some 2 for 1 deals to upgrade my top 6.

I don't think that I can trust Gronk's health going forward.  I hate to lose him, but he did bunk for me this year.

Looks like we need to add "Completed Trades" to this thread.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, bostonfred said:

If tyreek hill blows up in kc, he will have overcome

1) andy reid's limited true wr1 udage

2) alex smith's limited true wr1 usage

3) kansas city's limited true wr1 usage 

4) his own low draft status

5) reduxing his high variance plays

6) maclin's return

7) the presumptive return of charles, ware, or some other rb1 as the focus of reid's offense

I would be happy to gamble on him cheap, but his price went up faster than his value. As a rule of thimb, when that happens, try to buy cheap but let the guy who drafted him own the risk of him continuing to exceed expectations. Kudos to his owners if he continues to perform.

Haven't  Maclin, D. Jax, T. Owens, K. Curtis all had big years under Reid?

2/3 are the same thing and Maclin had a nice year last year and was a borderline wr1 in fantasy

Just off the top of my head didn't Cruz, OBJ, D. Johnson, MJD and I am sure others all have rookie/1st years with a ton of big plays and still come back and have very productive years and sometimes elite fantasy production?

Edited by msudaisy26

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, msudaisy26 said:

Haven't  Maclin, D. Jax, T. Owens, K. Curtis all had big years under Reid?

2/3 are the same thing and Maclin had a nice year last year and was a borderline wr1 in fantasy

Just off the top of my head didn't Cruz, OBJ, D. Johnson, MJD and I am sure others all have rookie/1st years with a ton of big plays and still come back and have very productive years and sometimes elite fantasy production?

Sure. It's just an uphill battle. Just like it was for those guys. When cruz blew up, it aligned with nicks falling off. When obj blew up, it aligned with cruz getting hurt.  They each played well and had a qb who had made elite wr1s before. Obj was drafted in the top ten picks. Hill and cruz weren't. 

Maybe maclin never returns to form and hill is the guy. Maybe hill is as good or better than maclin. Maybe he keeps breaking big plays and defenses can't or choose not to take him out of the game.  Things could work out for him. I just would price him as "could work out" instead of "will". 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, Brisco54 said:

Its important that you separate hype from performance... Tavon Austin and Cordarelle Patterson both have had major hype from the start... they were both top three rookie picks in dynasty drafts... and they disappointed because the performance never lived up to the hype.  Any comparison to them is pejorative as a result.

However, Tyreek Hill is performance before the hype.  Unlike Austin or Patterson, where coaches tried to force a way to use them because of the draft pick investment, Hill earned his increased use by objective positive performance.  With Patterson & Austin, coaches quickly realized that building offenses around gimmick players just doesn't provide wins.  So as the offenses inevitably revert back to more traditional schemes, their opportunities (and value) dwindle.

Reid did not build an offense around Hill.... no, Hill performed in an offense that already existed, albeit with a different playcalling pattern.  All he needed was the opportunity caused by Maclin's injury to showcase his value.

Thus, unlike Tavon Austin, Tyreek Hill does not have the same low reversionary floor.  

I think his comparably high floor puts Tyreek Hill's value somewhere between the 14th-16th pick in the upcoming draft all by itself.  Then I believe even a conservative view of his ceiling raises that value to the second half of the first round (1.7-1.12)

Since I always hedge my bets when trading, I would not trade him for anything less than 1.6 and I would happily give any pick after 1.10 to acquire him. 

 

I'm not sure I can agree with how you define "floor", or at least how you're applying it here. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, CabinFever said:

12 team PPR

Team A gets: Freeman

Team B gets: Jeffrey & 2.6 rookie pick 

Freeman

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12 team PPR dynasty league (1 QB start league)

 

Gave: Brees

Got: T. Coleman and 3.10 rookie pick

(I am rebuilding a turd team) 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Might wanna name this thread 2016 Post Season and start new one for 2017.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jonrolly said:

Gave Mike Evans and 1.8

Got Michael Thomas and 1.2

Evans in a landslide

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, jonrolly said:

Gave Mike Evans and 1.8

Got Michael Thomas and 1.2

Most will take Evans but I'd be very tempted to take Thomas and Cook/Fournette. Haven't studied this class enough to know if the 1.8 is going to land a difference maker like the 1.2 most likely will. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, The Captain said:

Most will take Evans but I'd be very tempted to take Thomas and Cook/Fournette. Haven't studied this class enough to know if the 1.8 is going to land a difference maker like the 1.2 most likely will. 

Agree, very fair trade.  1.02 is going to land a RB drafted in the top 15-20 picks of the NFL draft and Michael Thomas was amazing for a rookie WR.

Can see both sides, no way it's a landslide either way.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.