****OFFICIAL 2019 IN-SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****

[menobrown 2,700]

4 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Well yeah it's bad, but it's not as bad as those examples.  Graham probably has 3-5 years left and is coming off a season where he finished TE4.  Palmer probably has 1-2 years left and is coming off a season where he finished QB20, and Charles may be done today and is coming off a season where he basically didn't even play.

I think it's as bad as examples given. Graham ended poorly and not sure he's got 3-5 years left, seems optimistic. Henry just had I think a tie for 3rd or 4th  most TD's by a rookie TE(Ditka #1 so we are going way back and Gronk was #2) and he was a part time player. If Graham is on Seattle next season, he'll score less than Henry next year.

[menobrown 2,700]

On 1/9/2017 at 2:14 PM, Andy Dufresne said:

As someone who took Treadwell at 1.02 last year I would be happy to get a 2.01 for him this year.

I got a team that could use a WR pretty bad and I'd not even consider giving the 2.1 for him so yea if I had him I'd jump on getting that. Label it giving up if you want, I call it cutting your losses.

[bostonfred 25,432]

1 hour ago, mikel2014 said:

16 team PPR

I traded Jamaal Charles

I received the 1.16

This is the 2017 thread

[bostonfred 25,432]

47 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Initially I thought Evans by a ton, but after looking at in more, will go with Evans by a lot.

Michael thomas rookie year 92 / 1137 / 9

Evans rookie year 68/1051/12

Evans is clearly the pricier commodity, but Thomas might end up being better than evans straight up. 1.2 is a couple tiers above 1.8.  . 

[fruity pebbles 2,312]

Stefon Diggs and Tevin Coleman were traded for Keenan Allen.

[menobrown 2,700]

12 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

Michael thomas rookie year 92 / 1137 / 9

Evans rookie year 68/1051/12

Evans is clearly the pricier commodity, but Thomas might end up being better than evans straight up. 1.2 is a couple tiers above 1.8.  . 

Main counter I'd make to that is I think that while I see why you would comp rookie years I think they are the same age right now so not quite fair to comp 21 year old rookie Evans to 23 year old rookie Thomas.  I would still think Thomas has more growth potential to his game as players usually evolve from year one to two but fair to point out similar age. ETA-also 21 year old rookie Evans did not have a future HOF throwing to him.

I do agree with what you are saying however and why I'd prefer the 1.2 and Thomas but while i personally think Evans is overrated I do agree the massive advantage he holds over Thomas is young in-place QB for what could be majority of his career.

Edited January 11, 2017 by menobrown

[ghostguy123 3,021]

48 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

Michael thomas rookie year 92 / 1137 / 9

Evans rookie year 68/1051/12

Evans is clearly the pricier commodity, but Thomas might end up being better than evans straight up. 1.2 is a couple tiers above 1.8.  . 

Wish I coulda seen Evans as a rookie with Brees.  Oh well. 

[bostonfred 25,432]

5 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Wish I coulda seen Evans as a rookie with Brees.  Oh well. 

Would be nice to see what thomas can do with 173 targets instead of 121. Every situation is different. 

Again - i would rather have evans than thomas. But giving up an elite prospect to upgrade from thomas to evans should only be done if you're really, really confident that the stud you get back is better than the stud you're giving up.

I would generally rather load up on guys in the top tiers than get the consensus top guy in the top tier, because the consensus shifts so much from year to year. Three years ago dez was the consensus top dynasty wr. If you gave up 1.2 in that draft to upgrade to dez, you'd literally have given up mike evans. 

I'm not saying you should never trade up - I'm just saying if you're gokng to trade up you'd better feel more strongly than i do about the difference in their talent.

[ghostguy123 3,021]

173 targets from Winston or Brees?

Situations change much more drastically than the talent does.  Give me Evans over Thomas by a ton.  The 2 for 8 swap makes it just a lot.

[menobrown 2,700]

4 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

173 targets from Winston or Brees?

Situations change much more drastically than the talent does.  Give me Evans over Thomas by a ton.  The 2 for 8 swap makes it just a lot.

I think based on pure talent Thomas is every bit as good as Evans right now.

 

[menobrown 2,700]

FFPC

Team A gave: Jordan Howard and 2.1

Team B gave: Michael Thomas

This trade just got accepted like right when I made the previous post, crazy timing.

[ghostguy123 3,021]

1 minute ago, menobrown said:

FFPC

Team A gave: Jordan Howard and 2.1

Team B gave: Michael Thomas

This trade just got accepted like right when I made the previous post, crazy timing.

then you must feel that this was only about 1/4 what it should take to get Thomas

[menobrown 2,700]

2 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

then you must feel that this was only about 1/4 what it should take to get Thomas

Because I said I thought he was as talented as Evans?

[ghostguy123 3,021]

14 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Because I said I thought he was as talented as Evans?

Umm, yeah

[menobrown 2,700]

5 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Umm, yeah

Well talent is just one part of the equation so to answer your question, no.

 

[FreeBaGeL 6,879]

15 hours ago, bostonfred said:

Michael thomas rookie year 92 / 1137 / 9

Evans rookie year 68/1051/12

Evans is clearly the pricier commodity, but Thomas might end up being better than evans straight up. 1.2 is a couple tiers above 1.8.  . 

And Sterling Shepard just had a better rookie year than Antonio Brown, so how many top picks will it take alone with Brown to get Shepard?

Evans' rookie year was 3 years ago.  Since then he has progressed as a player and his QB situation has gotten significantly better in both the short and likely long term.  We can't say any of that about Thomas.  He may or may not progress from his rookie year (he certainly wouldn't be the first WR to not live up to what his rookie season potential) and we can say with almost certainty that his QB situation will soon be getting worse, likely much worse.  

13 hours ago, bostonfred said:

Again - i would rather have evans than thomas. But giving up an elite prospect to upgrade from thomas to evans should only be done if you're really, really confident that the stud you get back is better than the stud you're giving up.

How confident do you have to be when you're talking about whether or not you end up with a 23 year old top 3 dynasty WR that will be your WR1 for the next 10 years?  That's a lot to give up if you take a risk and are wrong.  History is littered with receivers that had a good season and then fell off the map or had 'meh' careers, especially when you look at ones that lost great QBs.  I don't think you'll find many WRs that had three great seasons and then just disappeared, especially not ones with a good young stable QB beside them.

I'm not sure that there are a lot of folks that think Marques Colston would have been a stud without Brees, but that awesome rookie season that Michael Thomas just had was basically the same as Colston's.  There are still a lot of questions there.

Edited January 11, 2017 by FreeBaGeL

[jeaton6 636]

7 hours ago, menobrown said:

I got a team that could use a WR pretty bad and I'd not even consider giving the 2.1 for him so yea if I had him I'd jump on getting that. Label it giving up if you want, I call it cutting your losses.

If you need a WR to compete then Treadwell probably doesn't make sense for your squad. If you need a young high potential WR that you can get cheaper then last year then the 2.1 is a great price to pay.

If you move him for 2.1 you're giving up. Not a label.

[One More Rep 480]

10 hours ago, menobrown said:

FFPC

Team A gave: Jordan Howard and 2.1

Team B gave: Michael Thomas

This trade just got accepted like right when I made the previous post, crazy timing.

Howard/Pick

[Hankmoody 3,168]

5 hours ago, jeaton6 said:

If you need a WR to compete then Treadwell probably doesn't make sense for your squad. If you need a young high potential WR that you can get cheaper then last year then the 2.1 is a great price to pay.

If you move him for 2.1 you're giving up. Not a label.

If Treadwell were in this draft where would you rank him?  Where would you have him on a draft list?

[bostonfred 25,432]

9 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

a 23 year old top 3 dynasty WR that will be your WR1 for the next 10 years

Is that even what evans is?  When he had 74/1208/3 last year and led the league in drops, he wasn't a wr1. He had 12 tds this year.  Did he have a better year because he and winston just got better? Or did they have an off year because evans lost focus? Was that a one time thing? 

Last year the team had a pro bowl running back. This year they didn't. Is that related to his jump in stats? Last year, evans plus the running game had  3370 yards and 15 total tds. This year evens plus the running game had 2937 yards and 20 total tds. If the running game reemerges next year, will the whole offense improve? Or will his targets regress back from the league leading 173 he got this year and his td rate go back down as well?

Evans certainly could be progressing into perennial wr1 status, and I value him as a top 3 dynasty wr. But it's hard to call him a "wr1 for the next 10 years" when he doesn't even have back to back years of wr1 production.

I don't think you see that as the leap of faith that I do, which is the whole point - it's a fair trade because two people can reasonably prefer different sides.

[Tybeeman 11]

8 hours ago, jeaton6 said:

If you need a WR to compete then Treadwell probably doesn't make sense for your squad. If you need a young high potential WR that you can get cheaper then last year then the 2.1 is a great price to pay.

If you move him for 2.1 you're giving up. Not a label.

This is what I was trying to accomplish by making the deal. The team i took over will not be competing for a championship any time real soon. I'm basically trying to overhaul the roster. So far I've landed Rodgers/Duke Johnson/Treadwell. I have a long way to go.

[FreeBaGeL 6,879]

6 hours ago, bostonfred said:

Is that even what evans is?

Is there any precedent for a WR starting his career with 3 straight 1,000 yard seasons and NOT becoming a perennial WR1?  Or for a WR having any 3 straight 1,000 yard seasons and not?  

Because there is certainly a precedent for a WR starting his career with a single 1,000 yard season and not becoming a perennial WR1, and a big big big precedent for a WR having a single 1,000 yard season at some point and not becoming one.  There is also a big precedent for a receiver seeing a major dropoff in production when downgrading at QB. 

There are no guarantees and who knows what will happen, but the odds certainly point in one direction on this one.

Edited January 11, 2017 by FreeBaGeL

[SieteCinco 6]

12 Team, Tiered PPR (RB=0.5, WR=1.0), start 2QB, 1RB, 1WR, 1TE, 4Flex

Gave: Dion Lewis

Received: Michael Floyd

[One More Rep 480]

6 minutes ago, SieteCinco said:

12 Team, Tiered PPR (RB=0.5, WR=1.0), start 2QB, 1RB, 1WR, 1TE, 4Flex

Gave: Dion Lewis

Received: Michael Floyd

Floyd

[bostonfred 25,432]

9 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Is there any precedent for a WR starting his career with 3 straight 1,000 yard seasons and NOT becoming a perennial WR1?  Because there is a big precedent for a WR starting his career with a single 1,000 yard season and not becoming a perennial WR1.  There is also a big precedent for a receiver seeing a major dropoff in production when downgrading at QB. 

Aj green, randy moss and John jefferson are the only ones to start with 3 straight 1000 yard seasons. Jefferson never had a 4th 1000 yard season.

I suppose the bar isn't "1000 yard season",  though, it's "10 more years of wr1 production". And none of these guys went on to have 10 more years of wr1 production after their 3 years of 1000 yards. Moss came close - he had 10 years of 1000 yard production including his first 3 seasons, but not ten more.  

Aj green is also on track - since those first 3 years, he's had 3 more years of pro bowl production, which is his whole six year career thus far. He could well have 7 more. But the odds are against it.

Marvin harrison had 3 years of 750+ to start, then 8 straight 1000 yard seasons. Andre johnson had 7 1000 yard seasons. 

In fact, there's a grand total of one guy ever who had 13 1000 yard seasons - jerry rice, who had 14 of them. And they were pretty much all wr1 seasons. So it can be done. It's just rare.

It's easier to say "ten more years of wr1 production" than to find guys who've done it. Which is kind of the point - it's possible that he will have a long career of non stop success, but not every wr1 repeats the following year. And again, evans was not even a wr1 last year.

I think it's likely that evans has more elite production left. I have him as a top 3 dynasty wr, same as you. But if you seriously expect 10 more years of wr1 productiom from him, you should have him as higher than a top 3 dynasty wr. He should be the most valuable untouchable player in dynasty. And if you don't, you shouldn't have him that far ahead of a guy from whom you expect a few more years of wr1 production, because that may be as many as evans has left. 

[FreeBaGeL 6,879]

15 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

Aj green, randy moss and John jefferson are the only ones to start with 3 straight 1000 yard seasons. Jefferson never had a 4th 1000 yard season.

I suppose the bar isn't "1000 yard season",  though, it's "10 more years of wr1 production". And none of these guys went on to have 10 more years of wr1 production after their 3 years of 1000 yards. Moss came close - he had 10 years of 1000 yard production including his first 3 seasons, but not ten more.  

Aj green is also on track - since those first 3 years, he's had 3 more years of pro bowl production, which is his whole six year career thus far. He could well have 7 more. But the odds are against it.

Marvin harrison had 3 years of 750+ to start, then 8 straight 1000 yard seasons. Andre johnson had 7 1000 yard seasons. 

In fact, there's a grand total of one guy ever who had 13 1000 yard seasons - jerry rice, who had 14 of them. And they were pretty much all wr1 seasons. So it can be done. It's just rare.

It's easier to say "ten more years of wr1 production" than to find guys who've done it. Which is kind of the point - it's possible that he will have a long career of non stop success, but not every wr1 repeats the following year. And again, evans was not even a wr1 last year.

I think it's likely that evans has more elite production left. I have him as a top 3 dynasty wr, same as you. But if you seriously expect 10 more years of wr1 productiom from him, you should have him as higher than a top 3 dynasty wr. He should be the most valuable untouchable player in dynasty. And if you don't, you shouldn't have him that far ahead of a guy from whom you expect a few more years of wr1 production, because that may be as many as evans has left. 

OK fair enough.  10 years of WR1 production is just a way people use to describe long-term elite WRs around here and I picked up on it.  These guys get hurt, have the occasional down year inbetween, etc such that no one literally has 10 actual years of actual WR1 production.

Bottom line, I'm pretty confident that 4-5 years from now Evans will still be considered an elite top 3 dynasty WR who people see as a valuable proven commodity with a decent chunk of his career still ahead of him.  I can't say the same for Thomas.  Likewise, I'm pretty confident that 4-5 years from now people won't be picking Evans up off the WW on the hopes that he can be revitalized with the new team that just picked him up on a cheap prove-it deal, or won't be middling in mediocrity and being dealt around for mid/late 2nd round rookie picks.  I am a lot less confident about that with Thomas.  I wouldn't say it's likely, but it seems a lot more likely for him than it does for Evans imo.

I understand where you're coming from and your argument is sound.  Cook is a good return on the "downgrade" which may or may not end up actually even being a downgrade.  I happen to think the odds are that it will be, and potentially by a good amount.  To each their own.  People are pretty split on this trade so that means it was probably a pretty fair deal.

Edited January 11, 2017 by FreeBaGeL

[pizzatyme 278]

FFPC

Gave Brandon Marshall

Got Breshad Perriman

[ghostguy123 3,021]

6 minutes ago, pizzatyme said:

FFPC

Gave Brandon Marshall

Got Breshad Perriman

You both lose

Probably Perriman

[pizzatyme 278]

FFPC this went down earlier this week:

Corey Coleman, Malcolm Mitchell, and 1.3 

for

Julio Jones

[Tybeeman 11]

3 minutes ago, pizzatyme said:

FFPC this went down earlier this week:

Corey Coleman, Malcolm Mitchell, and 1.3 

for

Julio Jones

Interesting deal. I may be tempted to make a deal, but it would be a tough decision to move Julio for those pieces.

[ghostguy123 3,021]

6 minutes ago, pizzatyme said:

FFPC this went down earlier this week:

Corey Coleman, Malcolm Mitchell, and 1.3 

for

Julio Jones

I would keep Julio in all cases here, whether competing or rebuilding.

If rebuilding, I think there are plenty of "better" deals to be had out there. 

[RushHour 521]

21 hours ago, fruity pebbles said:

Stefon Diggs and Tevin Coleman were traded for Keenan Allen.

Seems a bit pricey IMO. I'm not sure Allen is any better than Diggs so adding Coleman is a (great) bonus I think. I'd take the Diggs/Coleman side for sure.

[RushHour 521]

On Wednesday, 11 January 2017 at 6:30 AM, Hankmoody said:

It's not really giving up, more like a reboot.  I also took him at 1.02 last year but I'd be mighty tempted to take pick 13.  Helps that it's an IDP league and that pick carries a lot more value in those, but even if I knew I wasn't drafting IDP I would still be tempted.  We know more today than we knew on draft day last year.  In terms of pure talent, I'd have Treadwell WR4 at best in this draft.  That puts him, at best, at 1.08 on my rankings.  Even if his 2016 season never happened and Treadwell were in this draft, knowing what we know about Minnesota today, I'd put that in the bottom 10 WR situations for him to go to.  That's only going to drop him on the draft list.  2.01 sounds about right, and in an IDP league it's a very solid exit price.

I agree with this. I'd take lower than 2.01 actually because I just see too many red flags. I think there's a reasonable chance he's almost worthless after next season so I wouldn't fault anyone for cutting their losses early. I know most people would say that's not how you do dynasty, but I only believe he's a fool's gold 'buy low' this offseason.

[menobrown 2,700]

1 hour ago, pizzatyme said:

FFPC

Gave Brandon Marshall

Got Breshad Perriman

Perriman

 

51 minutes ago, pizzatyme said:

FFPC this went down earlier this week:

Corey Coleman, Malcolm Mitchell, and 1.3 

for

Julio Jones

1.3 

 

Both of those are easy calls for me but based on where consensus has their value seems even.

[menobrown 2,700]

This is all from same FFPC league and all of these trades went down in last few hours involving different teams:

 

Team A gave: Watkins, Corey Coleman, 1.12

Team B gave: Hopkins, Dez, J Graham

 

Team A gave: Kenneth Dixon

Team B gave: Josh Doctson

Team A gave: Jerrick Mckinnon

Team B gave: 3.4 and 2018 third.

[ghostguy123 3,021]

3 minutes ago, menobrown said:

This is all from same FFPC league and all of these trades went down in last few hours involving different teams:

 

Team A gave: Watkins, Corey Coleman, 1.12

Team B gave: Hopkins, Dez, J Graham

 

 

Hopkins/Dez/Graham in a landslide

[fruity pebbles 2,312]

sterling shepard and devante parker for Julio jones. 32 team double copy dynasty, ppr

[ConnSKINS26 4,748]

5 minutes ago, fruity pebbles said:

sterling shepard and devante parker for Julio jones. 32 team double copy dynasty, ppr

Gross. People making these types of deals shouldn't be in more complex formats like this. Clearly still need to cut their teeth in a simpler 12 team league type setting.

[Matt's Eagles 20]

20 team PPR

Team A gets Jay Ajayi 

Team B gets Sterling Shepard, Cordelle Patterson, pick 3.3

[One More Rep 480]

2 hours ago, Matt's Eagles said:

20 team PPR

Team A gets Jay Ajayi 

Team B gets Sterling Shepard, Cordelle Patterson, pick 3.3

Probably Ajayi but close

[Warhogs 582]

I'll take Ajayi and it's not all that close for me.

[Blick 1,064]

Tyrell Williams for 1.05

[mozzy84 839]

5 hours ago, Matt's Eagles said:

20 team PPR

Team A gets Jay Ajayi 

Team B gets Sterling Shepard, Cordelle Patterson, pick 3.3

Ajayi by a long ways

[Blick 1,064]

5 hours ago, Matt's Eagles said:

20 team PPR

Team A gets Jay Ajayi 

Team B gets Sterling Shepard, Cordelle Patterson, pick 3.3

Ajayi

[Warhogs 582]

21 minutes ago, Blick said:

Tyrell Williams for 1.05

1.05 for me

[Bfrahm3 216]

36 minutes ago, Warhogs said:

1.05 for me

I'd say the same, he was a great waiver wire find but I'd rather sell now if I can get a high rookie that will be in a better spot

[Hankmoody 3,168]

1 hour ago, Blick said:

Tyrell Williams for 1.05

Would love to get that for Tyrell.

[menobrown 2,700]

8 hours ago, Matt's Eagles said:

20 team PPR

Team A gets Jay Ajayi 

Team B gets Sterling Shepard, Cordelle Patterson, pick 3.3

Shepard and thanks for the free throw in's.

[menobrown 2,700]

1 hour ago, Hankmoody said:

Would love to get that for Tyrell.

no kidding, that one is not close to me.

[Braktastic 174]

12-Team PPR, Start 1 QB

Team A gives CJ Anderson, Jay Cutler, and Pick 2.11 

Team B gives Marcus Mariotta