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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (24 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
Well I had wisdom teeth pulled a few hours ago and may not know what I'm getting at either, not totally in piece mentally at the moment.
I thought you were posting that due to Elliot doing so well a a rookie it has increased the value of 1.1 in hopes of landing the next Elliot, I might have read that wrong, I was saying that Elliot doing well was not a reason I think Julio for 1.2 and pieces was an ok deal.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
If the guy who traded away julio is also the guy who traded away perkins after that deal, then i guess its all good.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Yes, that's exactly what I was saying, although it's more about the 1.01 being such a smashing hit. And you're falling into the exact trap I am explaining. It's far, far too early to believe that either pick will be worth anywhere near that. Elliott was drafted into the absolutely perfect situation last year. We haven't had the draft, we haven't even had the combine yet. We aren't even sure who should be the 1.01/1.02 picks, let alone where they would fall on a startup ADP. There isn't a perfect scenario for these guys like Dallas was for Zeke.
Sorry but I'm not falling into a trap. We are not sure of a lot of things, one of those things is how much longer a 28.5 year old WR with a large assortment of nicks will hold his value. I'd counter that people that hang onto players to long and don't know when a chance to cash in is starting them in face are the one's falling into the trap.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Agree with you on principle. Do think you can get more for Julio at this point though. Hes a sell high imo. Dont think he has more than another year to extract max value. He'll be 29 by the end of the season next year. Next offseason all you will hear is how hes 30 years old.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
.... Right around the super bowl 2 years from now, not next season. During next season's Super Bowl he will be 28 about to turn 29.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
swabs
Footballguy
I'm probably biased due to my fandom, those crucial drops and the fact he's a useless blocker.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
You don't even know who you're targeting at 1.02. And you're giving up a top 10 dynasty asset for it? Admiral Ackbar is stunned.
What if Fournette ends up with a degenerative knee after the medical? Cook goes to Cleveland at 12 and Davis goes to Chicago? Mike WIlliams can't show separation at the combine and the Treadwell comparisons come rolling out?
Look if every thing goes perfectly during the pre-draft and Cook ends up in Indy and Fournette is in Oakland then sure, I might be able to get behind a huge speculation ala Elliott last year. But right now it's way, way too early for that. Oh how I wish I had one of those early picks this year.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
12 team 0.5 ppr start 2 rb, 2wr, 1rb/wr, qb, te, d, k
Team selling off a bunch of picks to try to be more competitive, only one of these was with me
1) Doug Martin, 2.1
for
Blount
2) 2018 1st, Bortles, Marshall
for
Dak
3) 2018 2nd, Graham, Cutler
for
Tyreek, Jacquizz Rodgers
Team selling off a bunch of picks to try to be more competitive, only one of these was with me
1) Doug Martin, 2.1
for
Blount
2) 2018 1st, Bortles, Marshall
for
Dak
3) 2018 2nd, Graham, Cutler
for
Tyreek, Jacquizz Rodgers
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
What if Julio tears an ACL? What if Matt Ryan is revealed to be a Russian spy? What if Rex Ryan is hired to be the Falcons' offensive coordinator?
Cook in Cleveland would be just fine, BTW.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Those risks are also present with the rookies so don't change the big picture. The point you missed or ignored is that the incoming rookies have a whole set of other risks they have not yet cleared.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I'm just trying to point out that there are risks to keeping Julio and it seemed like you were missing or ignoring those.
As a Julio owner, the missed time this year (and the little from last year too) makes me nervous. When a receiver starts to have foot/leg issues it's a cause for concern.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
The risk of tearing an ACL post trade applies to every single player, rendering it an irrelevant risk.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'd think Martin or the pick alone would hold more value than a 31 year old Blount - I know he's coming off a huge year and all....
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Fair enough. I was just trying to say that Julio's situation isn't static either. He does have some health concerns and he will be operating in a new system next year when Shanahan leaves.
It's okay to think that he's a top player AND that the arrow is pointed ever so slightly down.
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
Cook and Fournette also have those risks. Either could blow out a knee, go to a team with Rexy boy at OC, or have their all-world QB get an all expenses paid trip to Guantanamo. Ergo, there is no additional risk to either side of the trade. Julio's foot is a know issue and his value already reflects it, but we already know a ton more about Julio that we do about the rooks. He's also been through coaching changes before and come out fine.
LIke I said, if it all checks out in mid-May I wouldn't be nearly as against it. We'll know a ton more about the incoming players at that time and Julio is starting to become someone that a rebuilding team might unload. But to pay that price today is nuts. It would be like buying a luxury house before the inspection is even done. Sure, it will be worth it if all checks out, and it's pretty likely that it all will, but why would one risk that?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
He does have some risks sure, but he's been a consistent top 10 producer - long before Shanny, Jr. was there. I think the age thing is semi-valid, but it seems we move the "sell by" age back every year, Now he's almost 30 at 28 - better move him now.
That's what stood out to me, as well. The original Blount owner just made out like a freaking bandit.
jonrolly
Footballguy
1) Agree with those above that 2.1 alone was an overpay for Blount.
2) I'd rather have the first by a decent amount.
3) I'd gamble that Hill is more than a gadget player at that cost.
I wonder how long the owner has been playing dynasty though? The first trade combined with the fact that he's dealing all of his '18 picks would have me worried that if he was new to dynasty, that he wasn't gonna have the patience needed to stick it out.
Warhogs
Footballguy
The first 2 deals are horrible. If you are dealing to try to be more competitive you shouldn't be adding an old RB that splits carries with 2 other RB. I would prefer Martin over Blount. I would prefer 2.1 over Blount. Giving up both is criminal. Dak had a nice first year but Bortles had just as much value a year ago. I'm not sure if I feel more strongly that Bortles is capable of rebounding or that Prescott is capable of regressing but both are possible. To add Marshall who is older but was also a WR1 two years ago and a 2018 first (that by the way, looks like could be very early the way this guy trades) is also criminal.
I don't feel nearly as bad about trade 3. I'm not sure I would do it but if you believe in Tyreek it's not so bad. Again, based on the trades this guy is making that 2018 pick might be very early but without knowing giving up that pick and a couple good players for a young Tyreek and Rodgers who was pretty effective may not be as horribly bad. I'm just not sure Tyreek is a WR I feel is giving me 8-10 years of WR1 play.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Yeah I couldn't even get that kind of haul (or even half of it) DURING the season from playoff teams that were starting Fozzy Whitaker at RB when Jonathan Stewart was completely healthy. And Blount's value has only gone (way) down since then.
Actually, this is the one place where the guy getting picks+players for 1 stud does diminish risk. Julio tears an ACL, that side of the trade goes to 0. It would take 3 different ACLs to erase all value from the other side.
Of course, in my book, this is entirely offset and then some by the fact that the stud provides full value in only one lineup/roster spot, while the picks+players' values are spread over 2-3 lineup slots. Studs win championships.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I noticed you were considering David Johnson to be a 26 year old RB for next season. He just turned 25 in December. So while technically he will turn 26 years old at the end of next season, he will be 25 years old for most of it.
There is always an issue of where you cut off the dates on ages. I tend to go with what the players age will be at the start of the season while some have the cut off at Dec 31st. There is an issue with the ages at the start of the season for the players who were born a little bit after the season begins and the players born in the spring being considered a year older when there may only be a few months that separate them. That problem will exist wherever you put that cut off at.
I choose to use the age they are at the start of the season since that is the age they will be for that particular season for the most part.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Actually I disagree a bit. People know ACL is recoverable. Even at 27/soon28 he'll be back. He doesn't have multiple knee injuries to compound risk. An ACL tear only temporarily dips his value. An ACL tear to a prospect makes that player less desirable than next year's prospects. No longer has the new car smell, and new players have come in with more hype. Consider Doctson's value right now, or White's. If it's a foot injury to his reconstruction, then it could have a major impact on his value. But you could say the same thing about Williams's back or Fournette's ankle.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Depends whether im buying or selling. If im trying to buy....end of season age. Selling...beginning of season age.
Yes but because of the parts. Somehow this got reduced to Julio for 1.2, it's more than just the 1.2.
I did not ave a problem with the trade or view as one sided like most but to answer your question I'd have needed better parts to go along with that 1.2. That trade I had no problem with was 1.2 and Perkins and Meredith. Some people really like Perkins as we saw by the trade that got someone two #'1s but I was in a few leagues last season where he went in round one of rookie drafts and then you have Meredith who some like so if you like those parts I see the trade as fine. Personally I'm not big on those parts. I'd need something like a player or pick I value in at least mid to late third round type range or two players I value in 5th-6th round type startup range. For some people Perkins and Meredith might qualify, for me they don't but framework of the deal I found as fine with the right parts to go along with the 1.2
Rookies have all the same injury & opportunity risks as vets PLUS the risk that they just aren't NFL caliber players.
To be more blunt: Vegas odds tell us that one of Fournette or Cook will not cut it in the NFL/fantasy world.
Lest we forget... the the first two RBs taken were:
2008: McFadden; Mendenhall
2009: Shonne Greene); Knowshon Moreno (followed by Beanie Wells and then Donald Brown!!!... Shady was the 5th RB by ADP... WOW!)
2010: Ryan Matthews, CJ Spiller (followed by Jahvid Best and Montario Hardesty)
2011: Mark Ingram, Ryan Williams (followed by Daniel Thomas and Mikel Leshoure)
2012: Trent Richardson, Doug Martin (Followed by David Wilson)
2013: Giovani Bernard, Eddie Lacy (followed by Montee Ball... then finally comes Leveon Bell)
2014: Bishop Sankey, Carlos Hyde
With a very few exceptions, that's a who's who of fantasy busts. Sure, every player has questions, but give me a top ten proven vet any day of the week over these rolls of the dice.
Editors note: Before someone complains that I am cherry picking by not counting 2015 and 2016, I believe that an RB's value really cannot be determined until the third year. Prior to that, they are way to volatile and rankings are based more on perceived potential than actual performance. Gurley was #1 overall preseason... now he is in the teens at best (overall) and by the end of next year, could drop out of the top 40 overall. Another example, Montee Ball was a top ten overall ranked player going into his sophomore season and we all know how that turned out. If anything, I should have left off 2014 as well since Hyde has only a handful of fantasy relevant games in his first three full seasons and yet still commands a top ten RB ranking for some reason.
I feel like you cherry picked for all kinds of reasons. I was in several drafts where Bell went 1 or 2, don't much about about pre-2010 because I was not playing dynasty but I know that season I had Ray Rice as my #2 redraft RB.
I think what a lot of people fail to factor into the equation with those "bust" RB's is they did in fact surge in value at a point in their career, many after year one so if you got them and moved them you came out way ahead. That's the nature or RB's, it's hard to hold value but many of them you list as busts did in fact have immense value after they actually played in the NFL. Even a guy like Ball was going in round one of startups after his rookie season, like a lot of the other RB's on this list. Heck I moved Melvin Gordon and Hurns for AJ Green last off-season and that's not even a huge win for me, if a win at all, but illustrates the value that Gordon had even after a terrible rookie season.
But most of all you cherry picked because I had no idea I had to pick a RB at 1.1 or 1.2.
I think what a lot of people fail to factor into the equation with those "bust" RB's is they did in fact surge in value at a point in their career, many after year one so if you got them and moved them you came out way ahead. That's the nature or RB's, it's hard to hold value but many of them you list as busts did in fact have immense value after they actually played in the NFL. Even a guy like Ball was going in round one of startups after his rookie season, like a lot of the other RB's on this list. Heck I moved Melvin Gordon and Hurns for AJ Green last off-season and that's not even a huge win for me, if a win at all, but illustrates the value that Gordon had even after a terrible rookie season.
But most of all you cherry picked because I had no idea I had to pick a RB at 1.1 or 1.2.
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kittenmittens
Footballguy
Julio is still 27 - 28.5 at the start of next year. I want to sell him now too, but you can get more than that.
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
10-team PPR league.
TY Hilton, Dion Lewis, 1.08, 2.03
for
Odell Beckham Jr, Tyrell Williams
TY Hilton, Dion Lewis, 1.08, 2.03
for
Odell Beckham Jr, Tyrell Williams
In a 10 team that's easily ODB for me. You need studs in leagues of that size, and he's the stud of this group.
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
I made the deal for OBJ. I have crazy depth and youth so it makes even more sense for me given my roster.
One More Rep
Footballguy
Um... I was responding to a post about picking Cook as the second RB, so how is that cherry picking.menobrown said:
For each of the RBs on my list I used ADP, as mentioned.
You think other positions are different than RB? Players like Westbrook 1.1 ADP or Tavon Austin 1.2 ADP are just a couple of early WR washouts off the top of my head.
Finally, yes, rookie value can sometimes surge up briefly in the first two years... but the guy who traded you Green must have been Allen Hurns big brother.
Braktastic
Footballguy
As the result of another trade, the above trade essentially morphed into this:
12-Team PPR, Start 1 QB
Team A gives LeSean McCoy, CJ Anderson, Jay Cutler, Robert Griffin III,
Team B gives Marcus Mariotta, Spencer Ware, Devin Funchess,
Team A is rebuilding, Team B is reloading. For Team B it's all about acquiring McCoy and, to a lesser extent, Anderson. The QBs are trash that'll like be cut.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Braktastic
Footballguy
"As the result of another trade, the above trade essentially morphed into this"
you admitted to not posting a completed trade, most likely to get feedback before offering/accepting and making adjustments (or morphing) into something else
use AC forum, or better yet is Twitter and hashtag it #dynastytrades and make it a poll, you'll get more "answers" and some feed back if you seek it out
I'm guessing the same two teams made a 2nd trade, which was McCoy for Ware, Funchess, and 2.11. Hence, "as a result of another trade, the above essentially morphed into this." And since 2.11 was traded to/from in both deals, its crossed out.
If that's the case, and it was my assumption when posted, then you (and a couple others) may need to turn in your completed trade thread police badge.
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Braktastic
Footballguy
No, I didn't. I literally made another trade with the same team the sum of which wound up being what I posted above. Here were the two individual trades:
I don't post non-completed trades here. Sorry for the confusion but you guys are making assumptions as well.
