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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (26 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Broken elbow, bad ankle, back surgery in January...If he keep this up he's gonna get hurt.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I agree that 1.12 is too light but yes, Eifert is way overvalued. Top 3 TE who has a career high of 52 catches and 615 yards?
He was TE7 this year in PPG and TE5 last year despite massive TD totals that may or may not be an aberration. As we all know, TDs are the most fungible stat and a season and a half is hardly enough to determine that he will be immune to it. Without that he's barely even usable as a TE. I would be surprised if he's ever been even a top 12 TE in yards or catches per game.
I'm not that interested in paying top 3 prices for a guy that needs 13 TDs to finish two spots below the top 3.
He was TE7 this year in PPG and TE5 last year despite massive TD totals that may or may not be an aberration. As we all know, TDs are the most fungible stat and a season and a half is hardly enough to determine that he will be immune to it. Without that he's barely even usable as a TE. I would be surprised if he's ever been even a top 12 TE in yards or catches per game.
I'm not that interested in paying top 3 prices for a guy that needs 13 TDs to finish two spots below the top 3.
Broken elbow doesn't concern me, but ankle and back in the same season could be the beginning of being injury prone. Red flag, but he's no Jordan Reed.
Well, you're probably including his 1st game in his PPG where he only played 12 snaps. I don't think anyone actually started him that game.
As for last year, using data dominator fantasy points/games played, I'm getting that he was TE3 in ppg. And actually, if I use that for 2016, he's TE2 including the game with 12 snaps.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Mine is PPR, maybe that's the difference?
Low catch and TD dependent probably means his value fluctuates pretty drastically depending on PPR vs. non-PPR. Though even in PPR the people offering him to me have been expecting outrageous value in return (1.04 + throw-ins).
Yeah, that's got to be it. DD is 0ppr. But keep in mind that even in 2015, he was saddled with a backup QB for a couple of those games and... I'm going back and looking at the game notes... it appears he left week 12 in the 3Q with a stinger he got while recovering a Gio fumble, missed week 13, re-injured the stinger on the 1st drive of week 14 (only 9 snaps).
He sure seems to get injured a lot but I'll take a broken elbow and a stinger long-term over concussions (Reed & Green). The back injury is a legit concern, though. If you can get him for an injury discount, I'd be all over it. I can understand being hesitant about 1.04, especially with the value that pick is fetching this year, but 1.12 + Green is just stupid. There's a reason the guy making that trade had the 1.12... and I don't think I'm going out on a limb to say the guy giving away Eifert for that is probably the odd-on favorite for the 2018 1.01.
Eifert gets injured a ton, so do a lot of TE's, but of the upper echelon group, which I think he is, he might be the leader in the clubhouse. Good news is I don't think any of his current injuries he is rehabbing or suffered from are the type of injuries that will limit his performance or shorten his career.
Not sure if anyone could tell but I had read that last year he had gained about 15 pounds of muscle and primary reason is he's cognizant of his injury history and trying to get stronger. Did not help last year but still might moving forward.
I own Ladarius on a FFPC team, same team I have Eifert, and if I had to make cuts right now I'd cut Ladarius. I don't see that changing to be honest. 1.12 and Ladarius is not remotely adequate value for Eifert.
Not sure if anyone could tell but I had read that last year he had gained about 15 pounds of muscle and primary reason is he's cognizant of his injury history and trying to get stronger. Did not help last year but still might moving forward.
I own Ladarius on a FFPC team, same team I have Eifert, and if I had to make cuts right now I'd cut Ladarius. I don't see that changing to be honest. 1.12 and Ladarius is not remotely adequate value for Eifert.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
In PPR Eifert has been the 5th best TE in terms of points per game. He has missed a lot of games however and with only one good season out of the last three he has been the 16th most valuable TE from 2014 to 2016.
That is a pretty big difference, depending on ones perspective about that.
In redraft I think PPG makes more sense, while in dynasty multiple seasons of value is what you are comparing, and Eifert has not sustained his success for a long enough sample of games to be confident he will perform at his PPG level in future seasons, especially if he doesn't score a lot of TD.
Now the TE who have outperformed him over the last 3 seasons, many of them are old and not players I would expect to have better remaining careers than Eifert, although they could still out score him again in 2017.
Rob Gronkowski
Delanie Walker
Travis Kelce
Jimmy Graham
Antonio Gates
Jordan Reed
Martellus Bennett
Zach Ertz
Jason Witten
Coby Fleener
Kyle Rudolph
Hunter Henry
Charles Clay
Julius Thomas
Eric Ebron
I might not take the guys struck through over Eifert because of their age in dynasty, like Gates, Witten. Walker will be 33 so that would be a difficult choice also.
Reed has his own risks but I would definitely value him more than Eifert because of the upside. Same thing for Gronk and Graham and maybe Bennett.
Ertz, Fleener, Henry, Rudolph, Ebron I would consider about the same value as Eifert. Maybe a couple other guys would be in this tier as well like Brate, Hooper, Allen but I would likely prefer Eifert over those guys.
That is a pretty big difference, depending on ones perspective about that.
In redraft I think PPG makes more sense, while in dynasty multiple seasons of value is what you are comparing, and Eifert has not sustained his success for a long enough sample of games to be confident he will perform at his PPG level in future seasons, especially if he doesn't score a lot of TD.
Now the TE who have outperformed him over the last 3 seasons, many of them are old and not players I would expect to have better remaining careers than Eifert, although they could still out score him again in 2017.
Rob Gronkowski
Delanie Walker
Travis Kelce
Jimmy Graham
Jordan Reed
Martellus Bennett
Zach Ertz
Coby Fleener
Kyle Rudolph
Hunter Henry
Julius Thomas
Eric Ebron
I might not take the guys struck through over Eifert because of their age in dynasty, like Gates, Witten. Walker will be 33 so that would be a difficult choice also.
Reed has his own risks but I would definitely value him more than Eifert because of the upside. Same thing for Gronk and Graham and maybe Bennett.
Ertz, Fleener, Henry, Rudolph, Ebron I would consider about the same value as Eifert. Maybe a couple other guys would be in this tier as well like Brate, Hooper, Allen but I would likely prefer Eifert over those guys.
Walker at age 33 vs. Eifert at age 27 is a difficult choice? 
Eifert is in the same tier as Fleener??
Fantasy pros, DLF, and FBG all have Eifert at least TE3.
Something worth keeping in mind is that he's a FA after 2017. His low volume could easily change in free agency.
Eifert is in the same tier as Fleener??
Fantasy pros, DLF, and FBG all have Eifert at least TE3.
Something worth keeping in mind is that he's a FA after 2017. His low volume could easily change in free agency.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I posted this in another thread but feel like it is relevant to Ertz....would be curious on thoughts.
Something to keep in mind with Ertz. He has shown flashes of statistical dominance at the end of each of the last 3 seasons. This has been done with 4 different quarterbacks. I think he fits the profile to make a big leap this year with another offseason with Wentz to further develop that chemistry.
Something to keep in mind with Ertz. He has shown flashes of statistical dominance at the end of each of the last 3 seasons. This has been done with 4 different quarterbacks. I think he fits the profile to make a big leap this year with another offseason with Wentz to further develop that chemistry.
Streetduck
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah I missed Greg Olsen who has actually been more valuable than Gronk and the most valuable TE from 2014-2016. I skipped him thinking he would be lower than Gronk.
So that would be 17 players ahead of Eifert using 2014-2015 VBD numbers. Olsen is an older TE so you have to wonder how much longer he can play at a high level.
If you look at player production curves 31 years is past the peak performance for TE and where players at the position also have shown some decline after age 30. I think Olsen would still keep performing at a similarly high level for the next two seasons but at age 34 I would start worrying about him retiring or declining more steeply.
I would take Olsen over Eifert for sure, even though Eifert has a much longer career ahead of him. Olsen is still two years younger than Walker for example, and Walker has been doing fine at that age. Somewhat different players for sure, but that is just one recent example of a TE performing at a high level from age 31 to 33. Lots of others.
Walker being 33 years old now makes it a difficult choice if I were deciding between Walker and Eifert.
CabinFever
Footballguy
Just got a great deal, 12 team PPR dynasty
Gave: 1.2, 3.2
Got: 1.1
Gave: 1.2, 3.2
Got: 1.1
Zyphros
Footballguy
If you feel Fournette or Cook is vastly better than the other than good on you, if not then it's whatever. Either way 1.01 should never sell this early.Just got a great deal, 12 team PPR dynasty
Gave: 1.2, 3.2
Got: 1.1
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
For 3.2 it's definitely worth it for the certainty, especially in case the guy you like more ends up in a much better good situation.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
It's a GREAT deal because from now until the NFL draft and then whenever his league drafts, quite a bit can happen. Very small price to pay for the insurance of getting the guy you want, not to mention the possibility of something terrible happening to your 1st or 2nd ranked guy. Ya know like injury, suspension, drafted by the Browns......................
Actually really stupid for the other guy. Makes no sense.
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
10-team PPR
Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, DeAndre Hopkins, 3rd rounder
for
Melvin Gordon, Danny Woodhead, Branden Oliver, Keenan Allen, Benardrick McKinney, 2nd rounder.
Anyone who doesn't play IDP, just look at McKinney as an early 2nd.
Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, DeAndre Hopkins, 3rd rounder
for
Melvin Gordon, Danny Woodhead, Branden Oliver, Keenan Allen, Benardrick McKinney, 2nd rounder.
Anyone who doesn't play IDP, just look at McKinney as an early 2nd.
jeaton6
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
jeaton6
Footballguy
Dezbelief
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Deandre Hopkins is a throw-in now??
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
LOL, definitely NOT a Chargers fan. I will say that I was the side that traded for Allen and Gordon. Our league is Best Ball, and I realize that I didn't mention that and it probably wouldn't change your minds at all anyway, but I have a crazy amount of depth and youth at WR. Keenan brings a higher PPR ceiling, in my opinion, and he is less of a risk in best ball considering I don't take it on the chin if he gets injured during a game, as someone else would just fill my lineup. I do understand that, even in best ball, you still want guys who have proven to be able to stay healthy, but I just like Keenan's PPR upside in best ball. If both are healthy, big IF, I realize that, then I think Keenan can score with or even outscore Nuk. Heck, in Nuk's monster year in 2015, Keenan outscored him on a per-game basis if you take away the game he got injured. He was on pace for 132 catches that year even factoring in the game he got injured. Now, things have certainly changed since then, I realize that. But things have also changed for Nuk. At least he can stay on the field though, I get it.
Melvin Gordon was the RB5 in my league and averaged 3 points per game more than Freeman and 6 more than Tevin. I do like Atlanta RBs more as a unit, but again, this is sort of a swing for the fences in best ball because I like Melvin's upside more than the other two, as the other two seem to steal from each other. I also have David Johnson and a bunch of other decent options, so don't think the downfall here is much at all, if anything. Rather than having two guys you could start in Freeman and Coleman, in best ball I think it is a little bit different and you want guys with higher weekly upside. Maybe I just like Melvin more, and that's alright. Tevin's potential is through the roof as well.
We also have 50-, soon to be 58-man rosters, with a full 11-man defense. We start 4 LBs and McKinney was a very solid LB2 last year still with room to grow. LB is also a tough position to acquire in here because managers simply never want to trade them. For perspective, I just used Jamie Collins as a throw-in to get OBJ (that deal was also posted on this forum).
The upgrade from the 3rd to the 2nd is big, as owners drastically overvalue draft picks in this league. At the very least, the value of that 2nd will skyrocket when the draft is on me and several owners are panicking over how bad they want to draft someone there. I'm also going to look to use it to trade up into the first.
I know there is no way for you guys to know some of this, and most of it will not make any bit of difference to you. I didn't want to go into extreme detail, but just wanted to provide my reasoning for doing it, since so many people apparently think this isn't even close. Sometimes you get the bear, and sometimes the bear gets you. I'm alright with that, as that's the beauty of this game.
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
creating space on an ffpc roster with 20 guys I'd like to keep
Sold James White
Received 2018 3rd pick
Sold James White
Received 2018 3rd pick
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Exactly - why make this trade now?
While not worthless, the 3.02 is just not enough incentive to move out of the prime spot this early. What if Cook or Fournette bomb the combine or get drafted by Dallas (obviously that is unlikely, but just trying to make a point).
I'm one of the few who agrees with you here. I'll be very surprised if Keenan doesn't outscore Hopkins. I also think his injury prone label is overstated. They are essentially the same age, so I don't see why people are seeing this as so lopsided.
I think overall, it was a fair trade. I'm not a big Gordon fan, but he's similar to Freeman as a talent IMO. The problem is that he's going to lose receptions next year, so I don't think that ppg advantage over Freeman will last. Freeman is only 1 year older so age not a big factor. The fact that this is a best ball league makes Coleman much more appealing - I'm not normally a fan, though.
Either way, don't take the criticism too hard. It really seems like a very even trade. Hopkins 2015 season still skews a lot of people's minds and Keenan missing last season has a bit of an "out of sight, out of mind" effect.
One More Rep
Footballguy
In non-ppr I would probably take 1.2 over Hopkins (it's close either way), so IMO the 2018 1st is gravy and pushes it pretty easily to that side for me.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Hell no. I'd rather have Cook or Fournette and a 2018 1st over Hopkins in a non-ppr any day.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
It is a price I would try not to pay, but forced to choose I prefer Hopkins over guys that I do not their situation
Warhogs
Footballguy
Team A traded away: Mark Ingram, pick 1.12, Carson Palmer
Team B traded away: Kirk Cousins, 2018 1st round pick (probably a top 4 pick), Jeremy Langford
Zealots league so deep rosters. 12 team start 1 QB,RB,WR,WR,TE,FLEX,FLEX,FLEX. They do use IDP as well but leagues are still more offense focused.
Team A won the league last season and needed QB help. Team B has been one of the bottom 4 teams each of the last 5 seasons.
Team B traded away: Kirk Cousins, 2018 1st round pick (probably a top 4 pick), Jeremy Langford
Zealots league so deep rosters. 12 team start 1 QB,RB,WR,WR,TE,FLEX,FLEX,FLEX. They do use IDP as well but leagues are still more offense focused.
Team A won the league last season and needed QB help. Team B has been one of the bottom 4 teams each of the last 5 seasons.
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
10-team PPR Best Ball
Carlos Hyde, Mike Davis, Shaun Draughn, Michael Thomas, 2nd Rounder
FOR
Le'Veon Bell, DeAngelo Williams, Martavis Bryant, JJ Nelson, 3rd Rounder
Carlos Hyde, Mike Davis, Shaun Draughn, Michael Thomas, 2nd Rounder
FOR
Le'Veon Bell, DeAngelo Williams, Martavis Bryant, JJ Nelson, 3rd Rounder
Warhogs
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
Wow. I own Hyde, and I'm a big fan of his, but if I could package him and anything close to that for Bell I'd be pretty darn happy.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
When people post a trade like this, then explain how one team is annual cellar-dweller and one is playoff caliber I just shake my head. I get Ingram for cousins, and Palmer for langford, but the exchange of 1.12 for top 5 2018 pick is baffeling.
JPeso
Footballguy
Today is a somber day. After three years of holding the guy in FFPC, I finally let go of Josh Gordon.
On a serious note, Tyreek Hill's value seems to be all over the place, I have firmly in the WR20ish mix with upside for higher. To help with cuts, and potentially establish a higher weekly floor with a somewhat-risky Keenan Allen as my current WR2, Adams now slots in to a flex where the weekly choice will be between he, Shepard and Rudolph (1.5 PPR) - alongside Freeman, Gordon, Howard, Julio, Allen, Kelce, it was important to get the last weekly 14+ PPR guy with a better floor. That said, if Reid truly does up Hill's snaps as he is suggesting, Hill could prove to be more valuable asset.
On a serious note, Tyreek Hill's value seems to be all over the place, I have firmly in the WR20ish mix with upside for higher. To help with cuts, and potentially establish a higher weekly floor with a somewhat-risky Keenan Allen as my current WR2, Adams now slots in to a flex where the weekly choice will be between he, Shepard and Rudolph (1.5 PPR) - alongside Freeman, Gordon, Howard, Julio, Allen, Kelce, it was important to get the last weekly 14+ PPR guy with a better floor. That said, if Reid truly does up Hill's snaps as he is suggesting, Hill could prove to be more valuable asset.
- GAVE Tyreek Hill, Josh Gordon
- GOT Davante Adams
Warhogs
Footballguy
Matt's Eagles
Footballguy
20 TEAM league dynasty PPR
roster get cut from 14 to 10, so it is a rookie/FA draft with a decent amount of talent
Team got A Jay Ajayi, Dontrelle Inman, pick 4.11
Team B got Alshon Jeffrey, pick 3.15
roster get cut from 14 to 10, so it is a rookie/FA draft with a decent amount of talent
Team got A Jay Ajayi, Dontrelle Inman, pick 4.11
Team B got Alshon Jeffrey, pick 3.15
Matt's Eagles
Footballguy
12 team dynasty PPR, TE premium
Team A got Greg Olsen, Cameron Meredith, pick, 1.12
Team B got Zach Ertz, Jordy Nelson, 2018 2nd
----------------------
Team C got Theo Riddick pick 3.12, pick 5.4
Team D got CJ Fiedorowicz, pick 3.4
Team A got Greg Olsen, Cameron Meredith, pick, 1.12
Team B got Zach Ertz, Jordy Nelson, 2018 2nd
----------------------
Team C got Theo Riddick pick 3.12, pick 5.4
Team D got CJ Fiedorowicz, pick 3.4
Ertz>Olsen and Jordy/2nd>Meredith/1.12 and in both cases by more than just a little and when combined makes for a lot.
