JohnnyU
Footballguy
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (27 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
kutta
Footballguy
jeaton6
Footballguy
Streetduck
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think two 3rds is closer to his value than a late 1st or even an early 2nd, personally. If you need a young QB or two, I'd prefer the picks. I'd take Jackson/Mayfield over Foreman.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
12 team ppr 1/2/3/1/1/1/1
Gave baldwin
got 1.05
Gave baldwin
got 1.05
One More Rep
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
jeaton6
Footballguy
Yep. Also in my 2 12 Team PPR startups he’s gone 7.4 (between 2.1 & 2.2) and 6.4. Well ahead of Miller in each.
Spike
Footballguy
Do you really feel Jackson/Mayfield go in the 3rd?
Trying to get a sense of when the QBs will come off the board.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
That's where they're going in rookie mocks. They could certainly go higher in real drafts, but I feel confident that at least 2 of the top 5 guys will go in the 3rd round of most 1xQB leagues.
that's what makes this hobby fun, different valuations for different owners and different leagues.
I have very little confidence that he will come back from the injury.
The extra dart throws means i can take a couple fliers, including a QB
That part of it is fine, I think the issue is that while you value him low, the overall perceived value of Foreman is higher than what you got. You probably could have gotten a 2nd and a 3rd based on last year's performances, injury included.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
It's a give and take against his rookie ADP. He looked good when playing and his competition looked terrible and was essentially benched at the end of the year, so those are both huge pluses relative to what we knew about him last year when we were unsure how he'd look on an NFL field and when we still thought Lamar Miller was a pretty good RB.
Of course, the other side of that is the injury, which was catastrophic.
He'd probably be worth similar to what Derrick Henry was prior to the Dion Lewis signing right now if he hadn't had the injury, so you weigh a guy who would probably be worth 1.03-1.05 vs. the injury. I don't really see how it relates to his original rookie ADP considering everything has changed since then.
I've been looking for this last piece of info but I can't find it anywhere, was the injury a full rupture or a partial tear? There seems to be a huge difference in both recovery time and ability (DT had a partial tear, for instance, and was torching NFL CBs less than a year later) but I can't find anywhere that specifies which version Foreman had. The reports that he will challenge for the starting job this year make me somewhat optimistic as there is no way that would even be a consideration with a full rupture, but maybe they are just fluff.
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DreamTheater
Footballguy
Gave Landry
Got Baldwin 2.11, and 2019 2nd.
Got Baldwin 2.11, and 2019 2nd.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
jeaton6
Footballguy
Because as a 21 year old rookie he looked much better than the incumbent who averaged 3.7 ypc and doesn’t score TDs? Yes the injury was a set back but if he is available at the beginning of the season then his value will skyrocket. He is a great by low, especially from people who feel like he is worth one or two 3’s.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
His market doesn't include every start up dynasty league out there - it's limited to the 11 other teams in his league.gabes1919 said:
bengalbuck
Footballguy
I'm surprised on the Landry vs. Baldwin opinions like this one. Personally, it would take Baldwin plus late 1st/very early 2nd for me to move Landry.
Landry was the WR4 last season in PPR (with Cutler at QB, so hard to view Taylor/Darnold as much of a step back). Baldwin was WR14 (even with Russ throwing for 34 TDs).
Plus, Landry is more than 4 years younger (Baldwin turns 30 in September). So even if you do like Baldwin a little bit more than Landry in 2018, that's still a lot of prime years you're missing out on.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I just don't think Landry will get the ridiculous number of targets in Cleveland that he got in Miami.
jeaton6
Footballguy
I wouldn't touch Foreman at that price. I don't own either Miller or Foreman in fantasy but I'm a Texan fan. While there are some high profile recent success stories at other positions, there are zero examples of NFL RB's coming back from an Achilles and amounting to anything. Sure technology is getting better and Foreman is younger than most of the previous instances (although about the same age as more recent examples like Leshoure or Kendall Hunter), but that's a pretty pricey gamble that Foreman can come back to the level he was at before. Even if he does, guys with Achilles injuries are more likely to suffer increased injuries in the future and that's to say nothing of the state of the Texan's offensive line if he even wins the job.jeaton6 said:
The Texans are loyal to injured players to a fault (they are still holding on to Derek Newton after two torn Patella tendons, Quessenberry after his leukemia treatments, and overpaid Cushing for years after multiple ACL tears and back injuries) so Foreman will get a chance once he is healthy. However, while the Texans are missing their 1st & 2nd, they've got three 3rd round picks and an early 4th so they could easily add a real RB threat to Foreman in a few weeks. Especially since they don't seem to be in any hurry to bring back FA Alfred Blue.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Really happy to see that trade come through (1.05/baldwin). I had made the offer a while back (1.05-1.09 for baldwin to the owners) and the 1.05 owner just let it expire so I figured there was no interest. Then they sent the same offer like 6 weeks later, and I happily accepted. It would have been agonizing to see it in my email and not be able to pull the trigger because MFL is doing maintenance all weekend....or however long. I’m coming off a somewhat lucky championship so happy to get younger and play with house money.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
I’d keep him at that price unless the league is idp. But I think his play last year is wildly blown out of proportion in this thread. He had a couple of big plays, it was nothing special. Throw in the injury and I value him around waiver wire fodder.
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-OZ-
Footballguy
A gave Carlos Hyde RB CLE, Nelson Agholor WR PHI; 2018 1st round pick #10 10th overall, 2019 2nd round pick (will be late)
B gave Demaryius Thomas WR DEN, Mark Ingram RB NO; 2018 4th round pick #12 48th overall
A is contending, B is reloading after taking the trophy in 17.
Likely Starters:
A: Goff, Ingram, Collins, OBJ, Cooks, Thomas, gronk, arob, Crowder/crowell, Gould, saints D
B: Wilson, Barkley, Freeman, Hill, Funches, Hyde, KB/1.10, Rudolph, gostkowski, bears D
B gave Demaryius Thomas WR DEN, Mark Ingram RB NO; 2018 4th round pick #12 48th overall
A is contending, B is reloading after taking the trophy in 17.
Likely Starters:
A: Goff, Ingram, Collins, OBJ, Cooks, Thomas, gronk, arob, Crowder/crowell, Gould, saints D
B: Wilson, Barkley, Freeman, Hill, Funches, Hyde, KB/1.10, Rudolph, gostkowski, bears D
Snorkelson
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
Zyphros
Footballguy
I absolutely hate this deal for team A. There’s a very real possibility that Hyde outproduces Ingram and Agholor is better than DT by himself. Add in the picks and this wildly lob sided. Maybe I just don’t like Ingram at his price point with Kamara taking over but you’re giving up 4 youthful pieces for 2 guys that have 2 years left of value... its a losing formula.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Yeah it's certainly possible that Hyde outscores Ingram and Agholor outscores DT but neither I would say is likely.
Hyde is now stuck in a similar situation to Ingram with a good pass catching back in town, but on a much worse offense with a much smaller pie to divy up between the RBs. DT outscored Agholor last year and Agholor's situation stayed the same while DT's has improved.
All that said, I'd take the Hyde/picks side, but I could see someone prefering the other side if they're looking to make a run.
Hyde is now stuck in a similar situation to Ingram with a good pass catching back in town, but on a much worse offense with a much smaller pie to divy up between the RBs. DT outscored Agholor last year and Agholor's situation stayed the same while DT's has improved.
All that said, I'd take the Hyde/picks side, but I could see someone prefering the other side if they're looking to make a run.
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Zyphros
Footballguy
they produce relatively close to the same so for dynasty value, I'd rather have Agholor. DT is another year older, who hasn't really produced like the DT we know in years, with an unknown at QB while Agholor is in a prime offense as the shared #2 option along with Jeffery but behind Ertz. Sign me up. The only thing is if Cleveland takes Barkley then it's a clear loss for the Hyde/Agholor side. But if I'm looking for "compete now pieces" DT and Ingram would be way far down on the list of guys to get. A team isn't doing any favors for themselves by trading their youth for those guys.
Denver724
Footballguy
Agreed. I think Hyde could be the gem in this deal if the Browns pass on a RB on the 1st and 2nd day of the draft. Lots of if’s, but A could end up being the big winner. I would go with side A pretty easily (especially with the picks thrown in).
-OZ-
Footballguy
If he offered me DT back for agholor I'd jump on it. Although DT bring older doesn't really go with my plan.
Fwiw, and I'm not sure just how relevant it is, we actually traded ingram and DT last year in October when I was going for the trophy. I guess you could say I rented the vets but these trades are 6 months apart That trade was
Shaheen, Goff, Dan Bailey, Dede Westbrook; 1.12, 3.12 for
Ingram, DT, woodhead
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bostonfred
Footballguy
I see it totally differently. Thomas had his worst year last year with terrible qb play. I don't want Thomas to produce what he did last year, I think his needle is pointing up in the short term because keenum showed he could hit good receivers when he had them.
Agholor seemed like a huge bust so far, but had a seemingly great year last year - and was an ok starter. His needle could be pointing up, but it is equally likely the eagles want a better receiver in the draft. He seems like a Willie Snead to me.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I don't hate DT as a bounce back guy, I just have a hard time believing his value will/could increase even if he does bounce back. Agholor at least has that chance if he proves last year wasn't a fluke year. He took a normal 2-3 year trajectory for a WR to become relevant, and seemed to click with Wentz so I don't see what's not to like. Both I would imagine cost around the same to acquire, late 1st'ish, so dynasty wise, it's a no brainer for me to go with the younger guy. Agholor is only 24, soon to be 25, while DT is 30. The only thing differentiating them is DT has past elite production, but that seems to be over with. Doesn't mean he can't be very solid but again I don't think his value will rebound to where it was 3 years ago.
If you haven't realized that yet, you're about 6 months late.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Nice trade!Snorkelson said:
dipandglide
Footballguy
A couple new trades before MFL went down...
12 team, ppr, idp
gave: 1.06/Sammy
got: D. Adams
—————
12 teams, ppr
gave: sammy
got: Engram
—————
14 teams, superflex, ppr
gave: JuJu/2.07
got: Hill/4.04
—————
12 teams, superflex, ppr
gave: hill/J. Gordon
got: Adams/tanny/2.08/2.10
12 team, ppr, idp
gave: 1.06/Sammy
got: D. Adams
—————
12 teams, ppr
gave: sammy
got: Engram
—————
14 teams, superflex, ppr
gave: JuJu/2.07
got: Hill/4.04
—————
12 teams, superflex, ppr
gave: hill/J. Gordon
got: Adams/tanny/2.08/2.10
-OZ-
Footballguy
Close but I think Sammy and the pick
Engram if te premium or flexible
Really close. I like Hill a lot but might go juju there. Superflex pushes down some good receivers to the 2.07. is it IDP?
I think Hill and Gordon.
All very close.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
If we're just talking value then sure, but it looks like the guy trading for DT was looking for production, not a guy he can trade away 2 years from now.
DT's past elite production is likely gone, but I don't think his past "very good" production necessarily is. He's had a revolving door of terrible QBs and has still been pretty solid. If Keenum plays well I could easily see him as a high WR2 or low WR1 for a few years.
I don't love the upside with Agholor. Everything broke right last year with an offense clicking on all cylinders, Alshon playing hurt, and Ertz missing some time yet Agholor still only put together 62-768 as a TD dependent WR3 in his "breakout". Any of those things could regress next year and impact Agholor negatively. The offense regressing, Alshon getting healthy and demanding a bigger target share, or Ertz staying healthy all year. Even if none of them do, we already saw what he was good for even with those things breaking well for him, and it wasn't much.
Zyphros
Footballguy
That seems to be where we disagree, I don't think Alshon is ever a guy that demands a bigger target share. Wentz is a spread it around kind of guy so Alshon taking the CB1 gives Agholor more chances, and for how good he is, I think he capitalizes on that more in the coming years. Wentz isn't Jay Cutler that's just going to throw the ball to Alshon just because. The best is yet to come for Agholor. I'm not looking at it as a flip in 2 years though either, there's a very real scenario that DT and Agholor have similar stat lines, which they did this past year. Doesn't matter if one of them is in an ideal situation and the other isn't. It's a fools errand to give up future picks along with youth who will produce close enough to what you receive in aging vets hoping for past production.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Demaryius outscored Agholor by 1.5ppg which is not an insubstantial amount. That was larger than the difference between AJ Green and Sterling Shepard, for instance. And the only reason Agholor was even close was because of TDs while playing on a team that threw for literally double the number of TDs that Denver did (38 vs. 19). I am not expecting Philly to throw for double the number of TDs of Denver again this year, or anything near it.
I expect DT to be quite a bit better than last year, which was the worst of his career alongside some hideous QB play, with a real QB now in town. Philly threw for 4000 yards and nearly 40 TDs last year and Agholor was a WR3 again, with Jeffery banged up. Where is a big increase in number from Agholor going to come from? Are we counting on Wentz throwing for 5000/50 this year while Keenum throws for 3300/18 which seems like what it would take for Agholor to see a big increase and DT to not.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
DT still has a few solid years left, and I think puts up points more consistently than agholor. Agholor has some nice games but is kind of splash play td dependent wr3/flex guy where I see DT as a wr2 even with Bad qb play. Sure he’s not hitting the ceilings he had with manning. But last year is basically his floor imo. If you want the extra years fine, but if I have a 2-3 year window to compete give me DT.
