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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (22 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
gianmarco
Footballguy
I posted this earlier and elsewhere, but Hill's per target numbers are elite and better than any WR in the league. That's over the last 2 years, not just last season.
He may seem risky but his floor, IMO, is incredibly high for the type of WR he is based on past production. And his ceiling is WR1. Overall.
Hill is a YAC guy. You don't need a special QB, you need a special OC - and I think Reid will continue to find ways to get Hill the ball in space (although I don't expect him to repeat last year's pace). Also, they may have paid WR1 money, but they didn't get a WR1. I think Sammy is possibly just not smart enough to play WR in the NFL.
But if you go back and read my post I said I'm not a big fan of Hill or Thomas. If Mahomes doesn't live up to the hype and Watkins is a bust then teams might be able to blanket Hill. I think Thomas will appear much less special when not catching passes from Brees. I also don't expect that volume to continue when they move on from Brees and/or upgrade their receiving corps. I think 2018 might be his last big year. He's really benefited from NO not having a tight end. Fleener was an awful signing for them.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I like Michael Thomas here, but it’s close. I have Hill a tier below Thomas and a hopeful RB like that wouldn’t be enough for me to grab a guy like Hill. I think it might make sense if you need RB help though and it’s not a giant downgrade.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Totally disagree. If I were the qb I guarantee he'd struggle with yac because hill is not a big 50/50 ball guy, and I'm not good enough to throw it to a spot where he can get yac and hit him in stride.
You know who was good at that? Captain Checkdown himself, Alex Smith. You know who else is really good at it? Tom Brady, who was called just a game manager for years. You know who sucked at it? Jeff George. You know who might be good at it? Mahomes. We don't know that yet though. Different qbs have different skills.
I have no idea what percentage of hill's production was because he's good at yac and what percentage was because Smith was good at leading him, but I do know Smith had one of the better completion percentages in the league the last couple years.
You just responded to me calling him a risk/reward guy by making a very bullish case of why you're willing to accept the risk and why you feel he has a very high potential reward without refuting any of the risk I mentioned. That's literally the definition of a risk/ reward guy.
High per target numbers sound great, but the formula for per target numbers is really heavily influenced by qb completion percentage. When he goes from a quarterback with a high completion percentage to a first time starter I would expect those per target numbers to drop significantly.
You did mention that "his floor is incredibly high", but what if mahomes doesn't have as high a completion percentage as Smith did the last couple years? Or if he's really good on deep balls but doesn't have very good touch or accuracy on short stuff where hill gets his yac? Hill might be a really good yac guy with Smith and play a totally different speed role with mahomes because the qbs have different strengths. We don't know.
And why did kc spend ten percent of their cap on one major free agent this year at the same position hill plays? Maybe they see things differently than you do - maybe they really like Watkins, or maybe they think hill is a jerk and can't wait to get rid of him. It happened with Jay ajayi, and he didn't punch and choke his pregnant girlfriend.
I'm not arguing that hill can't be great, but he's one of the riskiest wrs on the board after Josh Gordon in my eyes.
Bubble screens and drag routes don't require Brady level precision. But again, I'm not even bullish on Hill. I just liked the trade because Williams was attached to it and I'm equally not bullish about Thomas (at their respective high prices). Like you, I'd have been eyeing other trade candidates than Hill if I was unloading Thomas before he is no longer paired with Brees.
One More Rep
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
EthnicFury
Footballguy
I think I’m quite a bit higher on collins than you are, but my rationale for pulling the trigger came down to blue-chipper staying power along the lines of what you mentioned. I watched a lot of collins’s carries last year and came away very impressed with his vision and elusiveness, but life comes at “out of nowhere” late-round backs fast sometimes and Henry seemed more likely to hold value in the event of a down year or injury.
that said I had basically sworn off Alabama backs after investing big in both Ingram and Richardson in rookie drafts so what the hell do I know
Dez
Footballguy
Matt's Eagles
Footballguy
12 Team PPR TE premium
Team A got Sammy Watkins, Gronk
Team B got Mike Evans, 2019 1st
Team A got Sammy Watkins, Gronk
Team B got Mike Evans, 2019 1st
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Matt's Eagles
Footballguy
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
24 man rosters, 0.5 PPR Start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1TE, 1 flex (RB, WR, or TE), 1 DEF, 1 K
Gave: 2.07, 4.03, 2019 3rd round pick (hopefully late)
Received: Julian Edelman, 4.10
The other team is rebuilding with several younger WR2/WR3 types (really just needs two good RBs to be a solid playoff team though) while I am hopefully a contender.
Possibly overpaid slightly but the price on other veteran wide receivers was more then I wanted to pay. My starters at RB, WR, and flex are projected to be Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Mike Evans, Davante Adams, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Should any of them get hurt or be on a bye week I was nervous about going into battle with Mike Williams, Corey Coleman, or Dede Westbrook as my flex/WR3 (my backup RB options are better at least redraft ADP wise). Edleman essentially amounts to being my primary backup for six starter spots with the upside to potentially overtake someone. I would have had to give up both Williams and the 1.12 to get a guy like Doug Baldwin or T.Y. Hilton (reasonable but an overpay to be my WR3/WR4).
Gave: 2.07, 4.03, 2019 3rd round pick (hopefully late)
Received: Julian Edelman, 4.10
The other team is rebuilding with several younger WR2/WR3 types (really just needs two good RBs to be a solid playoff team though) while I am hopefully a contender.
Possibly overpaid slightly but the price on other veteran wide receivers was more then I wanted to pay. My starters at RB, WR, and flex are projected to be Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Mike Evans, Davante Adams, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Should any of them get hurt or be on a bye week I was nervous about going into battle with Mike Williams, Corey Coleman, or Dede Westbrook as my flex/WR3 (my backup RB options are better at least redraft ADP wise). Edleman essentially amounts to being my primary backup for six starter spots with the upside to potentially overtake someone. I would have had to give up both Williams and the 1.12 to get a guy like Doug Baldwin or T.Y. Hilton (reasonable but an overpay to be my WR3/WR4).
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garlicduck
Footballguy
Just looking at the trade in a vacuum, it seems like an obvious win for the team getting Evans but it really depends on the TE Premium. In one league I play in TEs gets 0.15 points/yard and 1.5 points/reception versus 0.1 and 1 for WRs. In that league Gronk was the #10 scorer (despite missing 2 games) and averaged 24.3 points/game. Evans was the #72 scorer (#18 WR) (missed 1 game) and average 13.6 points/game. Watkins was #117 scorer (#38 WR) averaging 9.8 points by the way. Evans should be better next year and he's still only 24 - hard to believe! However, having Gronk or Kelce (who finished #4 in scoring) puts you in a distinct advantage in such a league. In leagues that just reward TE receptions and not yards, Gronk would have finished #25 instead, but still well-ahead of Evans.
garlicduck
Footballguy
I really don't see it as an overpay. You're in win-now mode and the 2.07, even if you hit, will not help you this year as much as Edelman can. You have the chance of getting a solid WR2 with not a lot of risk - he may end up outperforming JuJu..
Dez
Footballguy
The guy in my league offered me Julio he wanted picks 4, 7, Sanders, Rudolph (1.5 TE PPR).
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Yeah you're probably right. I feel like Edelman is probably worth around the 2.03 or 2.04 in this year's draft so those other pieces wouldn't have really helped me anyways. I always enjoy the late 3rd round/early 4th round dart throw, more so then those picks are really worth.
JPeso
Footballguy
I like Chubb more than Mixon, and I do like Mixon.
Assuming you feel the talent is similar between the two (I prefer Chubb), Mixon we already know had a rookie year where he did not deliver as a fantasy starter. Going in to year two there is still a fair amount of speculation. If he has another lackluster season, his value is quite depressed
Chubb may similarly have a rookie year where he does not deliver, or do better. Now we also know Mixon is in a better spot to be a fantasy starter this year, but Chubb has an upside to be in a far better value spot than Mixon heading in to Chubb’s second year.
Frankly seeing Mixon’s value in trades in the terms of rookie picks he garnered is the prime reason why I’m comfortable drafting Chubb and waiting a year if that is what it takes. At worst, he’s Mixon, at best he’s...? Mixon is high on my value chart so I like the a lot, but I don’t own him anywhere because if I did I was moving him to get another crack at two Chubb’s
JPeso
Footballguy
To be clear I would deal Julio for the 4/7, but I also don’t think it’s a crazy offer.
Now the deal with JuJu, 1.3 is absolutely ridiculous.
Agree, 4/7 for Julio sounds about right and I'd have probably moved him for that in most leagues I own him but the JuJu trade was pretty bad.
Someone emailed this Julio trade from an FFPC trade tonight but apparently someone gave Woods, James White and Alex Collins for Julio. That is as bad as the JuJu trade but the other way, crazy seeing the disparity in how he is valued.
garlicduck
Footballguy
Oops...Edelman just tested positive for PEDs - suspended 4 games.runner06 said:
Gianluca
Footballguy
12 Team PPR - QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR
Team A trades 1.7/1.8
Team B trades 1.3/3.10
I’m team A. Normally I wouldn’t make this deal but I’m rolling the dice to land 1.1 ( offered 1.4/1.7/1.8 for 1.1 & was denied & was countered 1.1 for David Johnson which I said no )
My core is Russell Wilson/David Johnson/Joe Mixon/Julio Jones/Keenan Allen/Brandin Cooks/Tyreek Hill/Stefon Diggs with picks 1.3/1.4/2.3/3.3/3.8/3.10
hopefully I can package 1.3/1.4/player for 1.1 and if not I sit on those picks/players.
Team A trades 1.7/1.8
Team B trades 1.3/3.10
I’m team A. Normally I wouldn’t make this deal but I’m rolling the dice to land 1.1 ( offered 1.4/1.7/1.8 for 1.1 & was denied & was countered 1.1 for David Johnson which I said no )
My core is Russell Wilson/David Johnson/Joe Mixon/Julio Jones/Keenan Allen/Brandin Cooks/Tyreek Hill/Stefon Diggs with picks 1.3/1.4/2.3/3.3/3.8/3.10
hopefully I can package 1.3/1.4/player for 1.1 and if not I sit on those picks/players.
garlicduck
Footballguy
If the owner of the 1.1 turned down 1.4/1.7/1.8, I can't see them accepting 1.3/1.4 as I think the first package would be more enticing if I was in a rebuild. That said, I love your team and getting 2 top rookies not named Saquan Barkley is not the worse thing in the world.
you what?!?You will regret that. A deep, deep regret.
You'll be forfeiting points as soon as a few months from now, no later than three years from now, and in 4-5 years it'll be a landslide.
Gianluca
Footballguy
He wanted a pick also. 1.4 - didn’t realize I left that off. Straight up I would’ve done it but wasn’t parting with the 4th pick and DJ. I countered back but the offers expired as he didn’t even decline them. Was active in the window as well but oh well. See if 1.3/1.4/player will pry 1.1 away.
You will regret that. A deep, deep regret.
You'll be forfeiting points as soon as a few months from now, no later than three years from now, and in 4-5 years it'll be a landslide.
JPeso
Footballguy
FFPC (1.5 PPR for TE) -
GAVE Josh Gordon, 2019 1st
GOT Nick Chubb
The only draft I didn’t land Chubb, but now own him across leagues. Deal leaves the team thin in draft capital and WRs, but fully expecting the future 1st to be 1.11-1.12 with Cam - Gurley, Zeke, Fournette, Chubb - Hill, JuJu - Kelce, Gronk as the core.
I believe this deal will allow us next offseason to deal Zeke or Fournette for a WR1+ heading in to 2019, if we want, while still likely taking home another title this season. Or maybe we keep all four to not risk not winning a title, I don’t mind being RB/TE heavy in FFPC.
GAVE Josh Gordon, 2019 1st
GOT Nick Chubb
The only draft I didn’t land Chubb, but now own him across leagues. Deal leaves the team thin in draft capital and WRs, but fully expecting the future 1st to be 1.11-1.12 with Cam - Gurley, Zeke, Fournette, Chubb - Hill, JuJu - Kelce, Gronk as the core.
I believe this deal will allow us next offseason to deal Zeke or Fournette for a WR1+ heading in to 2019, if we want, while still likely taking home another title this season. Or maybe we keep all four to not risk not winning a title, I don’t mind being RB/TE heavy in FFPC.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Chubb since the 1st looks likely to be late.
WRs are a dime a dozen in FFPC. You are right to go RB/TE heavy.
At risk of
I'd take Gordon straight up over Chubb. I'd take a random 2019 first over Chubb as well but not one projected to be late.Menobrown - you have expanded very nicely into not only having a wonderful way with words, but also having a way with "dynamic emojis". Keep rolling out the preseason therapy!At risk of
Matt's Eagles
Footballguy
12 Team PPR TE bonus
Team A got Mike Evans, TY Hilton, J Samuels, 2019 3rd/4th/5th round pick
Team B got C Thompson, R Cobb, A Cooper, Gronk
Team A got Mike Evans, TY Hilton, J Samuels, 2019 3rd/4th/5th round pick
Team B got C Thompson, R Cobb, A Cooper, Gronk
Zyphros
Footballguy
I'd take Gordon over Chubb by himself but I'm pretty bullish on Gordon. I think he is THE most talented WR in the league and he's been in garbage situations for years. He gets this year to prove he's back to his old on field self, and then either stays on a long term deal in Cleveland after he realizes Mayfield is really good, or he goes somewhere else in free agency to make his value explode.JPeso said:
JPeso
Footballguy
What we will never disagree on is Gordon’s talent or upside. I died a little inside when I traded him, it’s been a long ride and luckily still have a few shares elsewhere.
Coming off the year the two guys you gave up had this makes sense. Odell got hurt but the other two took step backs last year. I just feel in both of the cases of the two players you gave up that we'll look back at 2017 as just down years for them. I'd have held onto them myself on this deal.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
NeverEnough
Footballguy
Derrick Henry for Marvin Jones in PPR
