Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (15 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
foxco
Footballguy
Do you expect brown to keep up these numbers? He will be 31 and on a new team. Lockett had a good year. This offseason is probably last chance to get a decent return on Brown.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
31 isn’t terribly old for a WR. Especially for smaller WRs. I wouldn’t call Lockett and a late 1st a decent return on Brown.
It was two firsts. Even if the 2020 is middle of the road that's solid. Lockett was wr 13 in ppr also. That's solid
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
skinfanjon
Footballguy
I'll pile on to the AB deals
FFPC
Gave: Conner, Drake, 2020 2nd (mid to late)
Got: AB, Lindsay, Robby Anderson
This team is a contender.
And in another league...
Gave: Sutton
Got: Cohen
This is a rebuild. Needed a starting RB but more concerned with overall value. Not feeling Sutton as much as I did mid season last year.
FFPC
Gave: Conner, Drake, 2020 2nd (mid to late)
Got: AB, Lindsay, Robby Anderson
This team is a contender.
And in another league...
Gave: Sutton
Got: Cohen
This is a rebuild. Needed a starting RB but more concerned with overall value. Not feeling Sutton as much as I did mid season last year.
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
Almost “AB for free.”
I think everyone saying the other AB moves were the “biggest steals ever” will have to acknowledge the record has again been broken,
AB easy even though....
...this price is actually less for AB and even more of a steal. People have lost their minds on AB.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Man that's what I was thinking. I liked the deal but definitely don't see it as a slam dunk winner. Conner could be the best player in the deal, particularly if Brown goes somewhere undesirable. And I happen to think Drake is pretty close to Mixon in talent, just needs the damn ball.
Still, felt like good value and fits the makeup of that team. I have Barkley so it's real easy to figure I'll get reasonable rb2 production from Lindsay or off the wire.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Another FFPC deal for me tonight...
Gave: Conner, 2020 1st (back half)
Got: OJ Howard, Damien Williams, Josh Allen
This squad is a contender and again I own Barkley. I have Kelce and Wentz but wanted depth, plus I think Damien can hold down RB2 status as the pass catching back next year at minimum. Fully expecting him to have competition for carries.
Gave: Conner, 2020 1st (back half)
Got: OJ Howard, Damien Williams, Josh Allen
This squad is a contender and again I own Barkley. I have Kelce and Wentz but wanted depth, plus I think Damien can hold down RB2 status as the pass catching back next year at minimum. Fully expecting him to have competition for carries.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I got Lindsay on par with Conner myself. Realize Conner was a better fantasy producer last year but did not think Lindsay's play was inferior to him and I think coaching and surrounding talent have and will continue to improve for Lindsay and have and will continue to get worse for Conner.
But I never looked at the trade as taking AB out of it and calling it even. I looked at it as AB and Anderson for Drake and a #2 which is such an advantage to the AB side that even if I'm dead wrong and Conner outdid Lindsey by about 8 fantasy points a game again next year I still think the AB side wins.
While I do have Conner regressing I hate to say I would for sure take the Conner side here.
I'm not super down on OJ Howard but the Arians hire did take a little wind out of his sails. I think Brate is done so he'll be more of a full time player but thought that might happen anyway. Josh Allen showed a ton of promise but in this format he should not cost much, people are trying to move guys like Goff for late seconds right now and not getting it done in my leagues. Love the 2020 draft, even the late picks should be high quality.
I think where we mainly would not agree however is on Damien Williams. I think he has value, but if this was a multiple choice question with these options for his likely outcome next year my answer would be C
A) RB1
B)RB2
C)Kenyan Drake path from last year where he closes the season strong but is more of a RBBC guy the following year
Last edited by a moderator:
skinfanjon
Footballguy
That's a good way of looking at it. I feel Drake will be the key to determine who won this deal. I'd be pretty surprised if Conner is not in the RB 6-18 range next year...basically a low end 1 or high-end 2.
And I agree, Lindsay is on par with Conner in talent more or less from a fantasy persepctive so it comes down to coaching, schedule, health, etc. but I sure hope the spread is less than 8 ppg's. That's the difference between an rb1 and a spot starter.
Bottom line, I feel good, just not as good as folks are making it seem.
I agree with that. Conner was #6 in PPG last year and Lindsay was #14 so they both were in that range, my prediction right now is it would take injuries to keep either out of that range next year but that Lindsey tightens the gap or surpasses him. I think if I was drafting right now and had to choose between the two I'd go Conner, but it's super close.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
To some extent I agree, wasn't feeling awesome about this one. I looked at TEs under every season Arians has coached and fully expect he doesn't do anything to raise OJs profile. Treading water most likely. However...I do think he'll have a similar season to last year before the injury just based on talent alone and if that's the case I can easily flip him to a TE junkie. He will retain value in FFPC format. If he has a huge year, I'll go full Mortamor Duke and sell sell sell.
I had Allen's value as a late 2, no dispute from me there. QB is whatever in this format.
Damien....man he's all over the place. I expect KC to challenge him, they have no need to be loyal, but what if he has another big two weeks in the playoffs? FLIPPPP. Worst case I think he gets a James White/Tario Cohen type role next year.
Meant to add, Drake was the RB 14 last year. Volatile as hell but productive. Wouldn't mind at all if Damien matches that production.
Last edited by a moderator:
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
FFPC
Gave JuJu
got Mike Evans and 1.9
Gave JuJu
got Mike Evans and 1.9
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Guice is nowhere near Amari right now for me, at least in PPR. I love the potential but I've got to see Washington use him in the passing game with Thompson healthy before he's a 2nd round startup pick. Too much risk right now, though the upside is definitely there.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Further confirmation that Juju has ascended to at least mid first round pick. Evans isn't even 26 yet and just got Arians who is a perfect fit for that offense.Aunt Jemima said:
Further confirmation on Juju. Doing two startup drafts right now and he went 1.08 and 1.09.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I don't disagree that this is perhaps the most likely of the 3 choices, though I don't think A or B are necessarily longshots either. But if C turns out to be the case, I see Williams as the 1A in that RBBC to somebody else's 1B, but on the best offense in football, as opposed to the Miami Dolphins. But would it stay that way beyond 2019? Less likely.menobrown said:
Kerryon is easily worth an early 1st and I've seen some wacky ****ers on reddit who value Golladay above the 1.01, so if you look at it from a pick perspective, someone got two 1sts for AB. Possibly two early 1sts. Seems pretty good to me.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Wow - I rank Evans ahead of JuJu but even if you want to call that a push or even slightly favor JuJu the 1.09 is basically free.Aunt Jemima said:
bostonfred
Footballguy
Any change in your thoughts after last night's 96 yard, 3 touchdown performance?menobrown said:
Final tally is 6 games, 602 yards and 10 touchdowns. That's impressive no matter who you're competing against but it was 5 playoff teams and the raiders. If you want to take the raiders game out, go ahead - he had 59 yards and a touchdown. Take out his 2 touchdown non start against the ravens too if you want - he only had 30 yards so his averages improve again. That leaves 4 games against the chargers seahawks colts and Patriots where he had 513 yards and 7 touchdowns.
The chiefs haven't really used a committee in the past - they've usually had a clear lead back, and they get a lot of targets. Williams has 28 receptions in those 6 games.
What is it that suggests to you that williams will be "more of a rbbc guy next year" aside from you preferring your opinion of his talent over his actual production in the system he's excelled in because you write it off as "fresh legs"?
You keep using total yards to obscure that's he's only rushed for more than 51 yards in 2 of those 6 games. He's always been good in the passing game, but he's also always struggled as a runner. The only way he advances beyond RBBC is if he magically becomes more efficient in the running game at age 27. Granted, if he's going to put up good rushing stats, it'll be in an offense that prevents defenses from even thinking about the running game, but realistically the Chiefs can and will likely find a better runner between the tackles in the offseason. How much that guy eats into William's snaps will likely be a result of game script and pass blocking ability.
As mentioned before, he's primarily been a third down guy in the past which typically inflated ypc, but he's never even cracked 4.0 ypc before this season. So when you ask what suggests he'll be in a RBBC, the answer is that history suggests he's not a very good runner, despite good straight line measurables. Maybe it's the low agility score or maybe it's his vision? Doesn't really matter unless it can be fixed.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
More efficient than 5.1 ypc? It doesn't seem like his efficiency is the issue it's volume.
A small sample in the best offense in the league can skew things. But seeing a guy that couldn't crack 4 ypc in a 3rd down role put up 5.1 ypc over a small sample does make me a little wary of Hunt if he ever comes back.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Hunt is not coming back to the Chiefs, but of course you would need to worry about him if he did. Hunt was better in the role then Williams but it wasn't a huge drop off.
So the small sample size from other seasons (actually his whole career is a small sample size) with a different team, outweighs his small sample size for the team that will be the ones actually making a decision on his future? And he wasn't exclusively a third down back in Miami - he would get series as a backup in Miami, although he did perform better in the passing game than as a runner.
I don't think it's a given that he's gets the Chief's feature back role next season, but with each passing game it seems more likely. It will be one of the more interesting things to keep an eye on during free agency and the draft.
Oh I know (about Hunt not coming back to KC) - I phrased that poorly. I meant to say I would be concerned that perhaps his numbers were more system than talent. So if he gets picked up, it could be like when Portis went from Denver to Washington as far as per touch numbers go.
3rd down backs typically have small samples in the run game and they're usually inflated numbers... be it situation, fresh legs, defense not paying attention to them, whatever. I choose not to get too excited about a 3rd down back averaging 5.5 ypc on 2-3 carries a game, but it does seem alarming if a guy has failed to crack 4 ypc after 4 years in that role. Theo Riddick is an example. The guy is just not good between the tackles. But I wouldn't be shocked if he put up 5 ypc over a small sample on the best offense in the league.
ETA: I agree it'll be an interesting situation to keep an eye on. People are speculating that if KC takes Montgomery or Jacobs in the 2nd round that they could be the 1.01 pick in rookie drafts. Seems extreme to me, but we'll see!
Last edited by a moderator:
bostonfred
Footballguy
Why do you always say things like "you are trying to obscure things"? That's a really pejorative thing to say, especially when you talk about his rushing numbers without comparing them to other backs in the system and use an arbitrary, cherry picked cut off of 51 yards to obscure things yourself.
But here, let me help. Williams indeed only had more than 51 yards in 2 of 6 games. But you included a game he didn't even start. So it's 2 out of 5. Did hunt ever have less than 51 yards? Yes, of course. In 10 of his 28 games played, including his only playoff game, he had 51 or fewer yards. We can debate whether williams benefited from fresh legs or was hurt by being asked to take on an expanded role and playing a very difficult schedule. We can also look at the numbers and compare them with hunt. First here's their total yards.
In 11 games this year hunt had 1204 total yards. That's 109 yards per game.
In 6 games williams has 602 total yards. That's 100 yards per game.
In 5 starts williams has 570 total yards. That's 114 yards per game.
You suggested that total yards were not a fair metric because he "struggled as a runner" and would need to be in a rbbc. So let's compare their rushing numbers
In 11 games hunt ran 181 times for 824 yards. That's 15.5 carries per game at 4.55 yards per carry.
In 6 games williams ran 77 times for 376 yards. That's 12.9 carries per game at 4.9 yards per carry.
In 5 starts williams ran 69 times for 372 yards. That's 13.8 carries per game at 5.4 yards per carry.
In 11 games hunt had 26 catches for 378 yards.
In 6 games williams had 28 catches for 226 yards.
In 5 starts williams had 24 catches for 210 yards.
In 11 games hunt had 14 touchdowns
In 6 games, williams had 10 touchdowns
In 5 starts, williams had 8 touchdowns.
I just don't see this huge difference between what hunt was doing and what williams has been doing.
bostonfred
Footballguy
That little 3rd down back is 5'11" 224 lbs and runs a 4.45 40.
He had 25 carries against the colts. Hunt didn't get 25 carries in a game this year.
I don't mean to be pejorative, but using total yards seems intentionally misleading since so many of those yards came through the passing game. And I don't think my cherry picking obscured anything. It was pretty clear that I cherry picked 51 yards. And yes, I included a game he didn't start because YOU included that game. I was merely using your own cherry picked games. I'm assuming you picked that 6th game because he scored a TD and you liked that narrative.
As for comparing him to Hunt, I guess you missed that I was saying that I'm questioning whether Hunt's numbers in KC were more system or talent.
Who said he was little? And I acknowledged his straight line speed in another post.
And even if the Chiefs draft a RB somewhat high, everyone just assumes they're going to come in and be the immediate starter. How did that work out for Rashaad Penny and Rojo this year? Marlon Mack with the Colts after they drafted two rookies?
Damien has demonstrated he can more than carry the load in the lead back role in this offense.
Damien has demonstrated he can more than carry the load in the lead back role in this offense.
Boone22
Footballguy
Based on last night’s performance, the Chiefs would be best served to spend at least their first 3 picks on defense. I personally don’t think KC will draft a RB in the first 4 rounds. They have bigger needs on Defense. I think they address the RB position through Damien Williams and a FA pick up and then maybe draft a rookie late. I say maybe because I think they are somewhat high on Darrel Williams.
Ben & Jerry's
Footballguy
10 team ppr full IDP dynasty
Gave...
QB Lamar Jackson
RB Chris Warren
RB Jordan Wilkins
TE Jack Doyle
LB Fred Warner
LB Jerome Baker
Rookie pick 3.08
__________________________________
Received...
WR Antonio Callaway
WR DaeSean Hamilton
RB Ronald Jones
TE Austin Hooper
Gave...
QB Lamar Jackson
RB Chris Warren
RB Jordan Wilkins
TE Jack Doyle
LB Fred Warner
LB Jerome Baker
Rookie pick 3.08
__________________________________
Received...
WR Antonio Callaway
WR DaeSean Hamilton
RB Ronald Jones
TE Austin Hooper
Last edited by a moderator:
Re: bolded...I know it feels that way sometimes given how poorly he throws the ball, but I wouldn’t base my trade strategy around expecting this particular eligibility change on fantasy platforms next season.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It’s obvious that Andy Reid’s system is very RB friendly going all the way back to his Eagle days - which is why it will be interesting to see what they do this offseason. Right now I feel Reid is likely content to ride Williams into next season and spend their cap and draft capital on other needs - but of course they will need depth.FF Ninja said:
Given the flip side of the system being a big part of the success and Williams being a good but not great runner does mean there will always be the lingering threat of being replaced of course. He can not afford an injury of his own or for his performance to fall off. He’s surely a “risk v reward” asset right now.
Last edited by a moderator:
