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****OFFICIAL 2019 IN-SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****

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Kirk missed the last month but was on pace for 833 yards. As a rookie WR with league-worst QB play, that’s incredible.

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7 hours ago, Edgar said:

I rank the pieces Kirk, 2020 1st, Davis, Boyd. I own Boyd and would ship him in a heart beat

 

4 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

2020 1st, Boyd, Davis, Kirk for me

 

Hard to say without knowing more details on that 2020 first but if it's just random as could be I'd go:

Davis, 2020 1st, Kirk and Boyd.

 

Davis has been off to a slow start but his season last year was almost identical to Boyd's first two seasons combined. Somethings just take time. Davis injuries set him back in year one and Mariotta's injuries contributed to setting him back last year. While I agree Mariotta has been an issue I think not playing with nerve damage in his throwing arm will help and if not I think things will work out in the sense they if he does not play better he may not get extended.

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3 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

Kirk is meant for the slot, but blocked by Fitz.  He doesn't have an outside skillset imo which is part of the problem.

Crowder is indeed a slot guy.  He is capable of lining up wide, has been a better option than we've been using at various times over the past couple years, but he's best in the slot for sure.

I like Crowder as a player quite a bit when healthy.  Hasn't really translated to fantasy though.

Boyd, Kirk and Crowder are all mainly slot WR's but of those 3 it was Kirk who did not play out of the slot as much last year because as you said Fitz. Which to me makes his season more impressive because he was not playing his optimal position.

Boyd ran out of the slot 67% last year, Crowder was at 71% and Kirk around 21%.

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20 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Boyd, Kirk and Crowder are all mainly slot WR's but of those 3 it was Kirk who did not play out of the slot as much last year because as you said Fitz. Which to me makes his season more impressive because he was not playing his optimal position.

Boyd ran out of the slot 67% last year, Crowder was at 71% and Kirk around 21%.

Thanks for the percentages.  Didn't realize Boyd's was that high to be honest.

Do you have any concerns about Kirk's broken foot?

^agree that Mariota may not get extended, but they'd still need a competent QB to replace him.  If Davis treads water another year and has a rookie or boring vet QB thrust on him, what will his value be then?  Less than Boyd's is my guess.

I like Kirk fine enough, just don't see much of a ceiling.  Drafted him in a couple spots on contending teams, but eventually packaged him in deals to make a championship push on both squads.  Same question...if Rosen struggles again (which is likely IMO) and he doesn't improve statistically, what's his value heading into year 3?  Perhaps I'm too low on him though...should look at his season more closely.  

I'd still prefer the random 1st over any of them.  2020 looks to be a very solid draft as you mentioned and having an extra 1st provides a lot of flexibility to move up and get someone, even if it ends up being a late one.

My 2020/Boyd/Davis/Kirk rankings reflect the order I'd like to have them on my team without consideration to value.  In a trade I'd be asking for the Boyd owner to add something to give up Davis, and Kirk is worth a late 1st on his own in theory...and to flip it around, Davis should fetch more than a late 1st while Boyd and Kirk are similar...so I don't love the value of the trade much.  But from the angle of getting your guys, those are the assets I prefer.  

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Traded Michael Gallup for Courtland Sutton.

Originally offered Damien Williams for Sutton, but that was rejected, and the other team said that they would want someone like Gallup for him. So, I offered that.  Both of us are getting rid of Gallup/Sutton after disappointing rookie years, but I decided to take the chance on Sutton's talent long-term.

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11 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

Thanks for the percentages.  Didn't realize Boyd's was that high to be honest.

Do you have any concerns about Kirk's broken foot?

^agree that Mariota may not get extended, but they'd still need a competent QB to replace him.  If Davis treads water another year and has a rookie or boring vet QB thrust on him, what will his value be then?  Less than Boyd's is my guess.

I like Kirk fine enough, just don't see much of a ceiling.  Drafted him in a couple spots on contending teams, but eventually packaged him in deals to make a championship push on both squads.  Same question...if Rosen struggles again (which is likely IMO) and he doesn't improve statistically, what's his value heading into year 3?  Perhaps I'm too low on him though...should look at his season more closely.  

I'd still prefer the random 1st over any of them.  2020 looks to be a very solid draft as you mentioned and having an extra 1st provides a lot of flexibility to move up and get someone, even if it ends up being a late one.

My 2020/Boyd/Davis/Kirk rankings reflect the order I'd like to have them on my team without consideration to value.  In a trade I'd be asking for the Boyd owner to add something to give up Davis, and Kirk is worth a late 1st on his own in theory...and to flip it around, Davis should fetch more than a late 1st while Boyd and Kirk are similar...so I don't love the value of the trade much.  But from the angle of getting your guys, those are the assets I prefer.  

Any foot issue is a little concern but no not overly concerned about Kirks, I keep hearing his prognosis looks encouraging. 

Boyd plays with a boring vet QB already so should Davis find himself with similar I still won't downgrade him as worse then Boyd.  I think Davis has more upside, Boyd just had a better season. You mentioned Kirk's ceiling  not being high and I actually feel like Boyd and Kirk have fairly low ceilings. 

I'm not as convinced as you that Rosen will struggle. Big reason I'm higher on Kirk is Kingsbury who I think can help Rosen but they need to improve the OL in a major way. Also Kingsbury could be in over his head, we'll see, I'm not big on the hire as a whole but I think he knows offenses.

I'd add the following. In every single league of mine if someone offered me a random 2020 first for Kirk or Boyd I'd take the pick. If someone offered me a random first for Corey some leagues I'd take it in a few leagues, but Corey would be kept on majority. We are talking about a potential top 4 pick in 2020, it would swing the other way.

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FFPC, not involved

Phillip Lindsay and Chris Herndon

for

Kupp, 2.07, 2.10, 5.04

 

Also another deal with different owners

Carlos Hyde for a 2020 7th rounder 

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29 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

FFPC, not involved

Phillip Lindsay and Chris Herndon

for

Kupp, 2.07, 2.10, 5.04

 

Also another deal with different owners

Carlos Hyde for a 2020 7th rounder 

Lindsay. Not a big Kupp believer.

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48 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

FFPC, not involved

Phillip Lindsay and Chris Herndon

for

Kupp, 2.07, 2.10, 5.04

 

Also another deal with different owners

Carlos Hyde for a 2020 7th rounder 

They both seem like equitable trades to me. 

Which side I'd want in first deal depends on team makeup/roster.

On the minor Hyde deal chances are super strong any team I have him on I'd end up cutting him but for cost of almost free I'd pay that to roster him before FA and then just hope for the best. Might not sign a place I'd consider him a keeper, but he might sign someplace I can now flip him for a higher pick. I'd take that gamble for a future 7th.

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49 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Lindsay. Not a big Kupp believer.

Really?  I thought he looked fantastic before he got hurt.  I believe him getting hurt really hurt the Rams' offense.

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4 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Really?  I thought he looked fantastic before he got hurt.  I believe him getting hurt really hurt the Rams' offense.

But does he come back to pre-injury form?  Always a risk with that...

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52 minutes ago, menobrown said:

On the minor Hyde deal chances are super strong any team I have him on I'd end up cutting him but for cost of almost free I'd pay that to roster him before FA and then just hope for the best. Might not sign a place I'd consider him a keeper, but he might sign someplace I can now flip him for a higher pick. I'd take that gamble for a future 7th.

Is Hyde a free agent? He signed a two year deal with Cleveland I believe before being traded to Jacksonville.

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23 minutes ago, Gally said:

But does he come back to pre-injury form?  Always a risk with that...

Sure, I think he will be fine.  Frank Gore tore his left and right ACL, tore his right meniscus, and fractured a hip and he's headed to the HOF.  

ACL tears aren't the kiss of death.  I would be more worried had he torn his Achilles or had a severe Lisfranc injury.

Edited by JohnnyU

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31 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Really?  I thought he looked fantastic before he got hurt.  I believe him getting hurt really hurt the Rams' offense.

I do like him and I agree about the Rams offense hurting without him. And I'm not overly concerned about his injury. I just think he is going to be a classic example of better for actual football than FF. I see him as a WR 2/3, but admittedly with weekly upside. There *is* value there, but I'd prefer Lindsay, who I think is far less replaceable.

I said I was a non believer but that's probably a bad choice of words. I meant in terms of fantasy. I like his game a lot otherwise. I don't know who I would start from one week to the next between Kupp, Woods and Cooks. I think it is certainly a fair trade, though. 

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4 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I do like him and I agree about the Rams offense hurting without him. And I'm not overly concerned about his injury. I just think he is going to be a classic example of better for actual football than FF. I see him as a WR 2/3, but admittedly with weekly upside. There *is* value there, but I'd prefer Lindsay, who I think is far less replaceable.

I said I was a non believer but that's probably a bad choice of words. I meant in terms of fantasy. I like his game a lot otherwise. I don't know who I would start from one week to the next between Kupp, Woods and Cooks. I think it is certainly a fair trade, though. 

I would start all of them. 

Kupp was a strong WR1 up to the point he got hurt. 

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7 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I do like him and I agree about the Rams offense hurting without him. And I'm not overly concerned about his injury. I just think he is going to be a classic example of better for actual football than FF. I see him as a WR 2/3, but admittedly with weekly upside. There *is* value there, but I'd prefer Lindsay, who I think is far less replaceable.

I said I was a non believer but that's probably a bad choice of words. I meant in terms of fantasy. I like his game a lot otherwise. I don't know who I would start from one week to the next between Kupp, Woods and Cooks. I think it is certainly a fair trade, though. 

I think there is more risk with Lindsey.  Here is an undrafted RB that surprised.  That doesn't necessarily mean he will maintain the starting job long term.  I think there is less risk with Kupp long term.

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33 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Is Hyde a free agent? He signed a two year deal with Cleveland I believe before being traded to Jacksonville.

I don't recall the source but recall reading a few weeks ago he was likely to be released  but you are right he is not a FA and I'm jumping the gun a bit assuming he's a FA. I'd still pay a 7th for him and see how the cookie crumbles.

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Just now, menobrown said:

I don't recall the source but recall reading a few weeks ago he was likely to be released  but you are right he is not a FA and I'm jumping the gun a bit assuming he's a FA. I'd still pay a 7th for him and see how the cookie crumbles.

I could see that.

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Two FFPC trades:

RB Phillip Lindsay and a 2020 2nd round pick (playoff team, not championship caliber)

for WR Cooper Kupp, 2.9, 4.2, and 5.2

TE Jack Doyle and 2.9

for WR Doug Baldwin

I made these trades based on roster configuration. Super strong at RB and TE, only had Thielen/Fitz/Samuel/MSV at WR. 

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2 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

I think there is more risk with Lindsey.  Here is an undrafted RB that surprised.  That doesn't necessarily mean he will maintain the starting job long term.  I think there is less risk with Kupp long term.

Fair

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2 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I would start all of them. 

Kupp was a strong WR1 up to the point he got hurt. 

Looking at his game logs, yeah maybe I am selling him short here. I'm still a bit afraid of the whack a mole syndrome with the Rams WRs though. Might come down to whether I felt I needed another WR or RB worse. 

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22 hours ago, Edgar said:

Kirk missed the last month but was on pace for 833 yards. As a rookie WR with league-worst QB play, that’s incredible.

This is a great point. Kirk is on top of my test the waters list to try to acquire.

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4 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

Looking at his game logs, yeah maybe I am selling him short here. I'm still a bit afraid of the whack a mole syndrome with the Rams WRs though. Might come down to whether I felt I needed another WR or RB worse. 

If you take out the two games he got hurt in, he was the WR 4 on the year when he went out.

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56 minutes ago, Aunt Jemima said:

FFPC

Gave David Njoku

Got Adam Thielen

Even deal imo. Third year is generally the TE breakout. Funny thing is I was about  to give up both, Njoku and Thielen along with a 2020 2nd for Gurley. Kinda glad it didn’t happen. 

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7 minutes ago, Tejas said:

Even deal imo. Third year is generally the TE breakout. Funny thing is I was about  to give up both, Njoku and Thielen along with a 2020 2nd for Gurley. Kinda glad it didn’t happen. 

From what I've examined over the years a TE's usually take their biggest jumps from year 1 to year 2, also if they don't take a sizeable jump in year two the odds suggest they never will.  If you look back at some of the best fantasy TE's of last 15 years most of of them exploded in year two. In Njoku's case he did not explode last year, but he did check the box for sizeable second year improvement so I think he's on the right track. 

Also I'd still have given that up for Gurley.

On this particular trade if you are getting first half Thielen it's a steal no matter the age gap. If I'm getting second half Thielen I'll take Njoku's youth. Truth is probably somewhere in the middle and seems like an even trade that boils down to team makeup.

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15 minutes ago, menobrown said:

From what I've examined over the years a TE's usually take their biggest jumps from year 1 to year 2, also if they don't take a sizeable jump in year two the odds suggest they never will.  If you look back at some of the best fantasy TE's of last 15 years most of of them exploded in year two.

This doesn't seem intuitive.  It feels like TEs tend to come out of nowhere once the fantasy world gives up on them and they move to their next team.

Maybe not for the truly elite guys, but for solid (somewhere in the top-6) production. Guys like Olsen come to mind.

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15 minutes ago, TartanLion said:

I’ve been offered Thielen for Amari Cooper straight up. Tempted to take it 

Tough one because both are so volatile but I'd definitely take Cooper. He's the only decent pass catcher they have so they will get him the ball. Thielen was pretty bad the last half of the year and he's already getting decently old. Makes me nervous.

Edited by voiceofunreason
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1 hour ago, voiceofunreason said:

Tough one because both are so volatile but I'd definitely take Cooper. He's the only decent pass catcher they have so they will get him the ball. Thielen was pretty bad the last half of the year and he's already getting decently old. Makes me nervous.

Prefer Cooper by a sizeable margin, myself.

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5 hours ago, tangfoot said:

This doesn't seem intuitive.  It feels like TEs tend to come out of nowhere once the fantasy world gives up on them and they move to their next team.

Maybe not for the truly elite guys, but for solid (somewhere in the top-6) production. Guys like Olsen come to mind.

Right, that's the way it feels, but it's incorrect.

The whole TEs take a long time to develop thing really applies more to low end starters like the Kyle Rudolph's of the world, and people have misapplied it to the studs too.  The true studs at the position are generally quick to be a top end starter.

You mentioned Olsen as a late breakout which is true, but he's literally just about the only example of a guy in the modern era breaking out late and becoming a real stud at the position.  Kelce, Ertz, Gronk, Graham, Gates, Kittle, and Witten all had a top 6 fantasy finish by their 2nd year.

NJoku was TE9 last year so not too far off that mark, but TE16 in ppg is less appealing.  I like OJ Howard more personally (I like him more even outside these numbers too).  He missed the cutoff due to injury but he was TE6 this year in PPG, and his efficiency was sky high which is another good early career predictor of stud TEs.

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42 minutes ago, Matt's Eagles said:

12 Team .5 PPR

Team A got AB, Landry, Graham, 1.9

Team B got D Adams, Sanders, Ertz

 

Adams and ertz for me by a lot and i don't even love adams. 

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13 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

Adams and ertz for me by a lot and i don't even love adams. 

It was a toss-up for me even before I noticed team B was getting Ertz too.  Big win for that side.

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1 hour ago, Matt's Eagles said:

12 Team .5 PPR

Team A got AB, Landry, Graham, 1.9

Team B got D Adams, Sanders, Ertz

 

I'd rank the players this way. Adams, AB, Ertz, 1.9, Landry, Sanders and Graham.

I agree with previous responses to this trade and think the Adams side prevailed but unlike those responses I thought it was just a slight win for the Adams side, not one I'd labeled as "not close" or anything.

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10 hours ago, menobrown said:

I'd rank the players this way. Adams, AB, Ertz, 1.9, Landry, Sanders and Graham.

I agree with previous responses to this trade and think the Adams side prevailed but unlike those responses I thought it was just a slight win for the Adams side, not one I'd labeled as "not close" or anything.

Wow, I really like Adams and Ertz side if it's Devante Adams.

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13 hours ago, bostonfred said:

Adams and ertz for me by a lot and i don't even love adams. 

Just curious, what is not to like about Adams? He was the only viable WR GB had last season and he dominated against top coverage.

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1 hour ago, King of the Jungle said:

Just curious, what is not to like about Adams? He was the only viable WR GB had last season and he dominated against top coverage.

I love that he's young and plays with Rodgers, and he's clearly a pretty good player.  

But he had a career year because of his situation more than his talent. He was Rodgers number one, Green bay didnt have anyone else to throw to, and he got an almost 50 percent increase in targets (169 last year vs 117 and 121 the two years before).  

That was also his first 1000 yard season.  He had 997 two years ago.  1386 yards is great, but it might not be predictive - randall cobb had 1287 yards in 2014 and never broke 1000 again. 

Rodgers may be declining.  He's had two down years in a row with injuries creeping in, and he's playing in a tough environment against tough defenses and is 35. Brady and brees are making it look easy to play well into your 40s, but maybe it's harder when you run around a lot and play in the cold. Maybe he's making so much money on his commercials that he's not staying in peak athletic shape.  Maybe his body type just isn't built for it. 

There's a good chance the packers improve their receivers. They may be in the Antonio brown or obj market, which would relegate adams to number two status immediately. There are other good options oom free agency and the draft who could allow rodgers to spread the ball out more.

And finally, he's been a touchdown machine when the packers were struggling to find a run game. Even if he keeps up the high target volume and Rodgers doesn't regress, he could see his touchdown numbers come down. 

All of that is concerning to me. It doesn't mean i don't want him, but he's not the slam dunk wr1 that i think a lot of people think he is. I would still rather have him in dynasty than Antonio brown (who could see a huge drop in numbers on a new team) and i think he has upside to continue to improve even on his excellent 2018 numbers, but i think people are starting to over value him a little now. 

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1 hour ago, bostonfred said:

I love that he's young and plays with Rodgers, and he's clearly a pretty good player.  

But he had a career year because of his situation more than his talent. He was Rodgers number one, Green bay didnt have anyone else to throw to, and he got an almost 50 percent increase in targets (169 last year vs 117 and 121 the two years before).  

That was also his first 1000 yard season.  He had 997 two years ago.  1386 yards is great, but it might not be predictive - randall cobb had 1287 yards in 2014 and never broke 1000 again. 

Rodgers may be declining.  He's had two down years in a row with injuries creeping in, and he's playing in a tough environment against tough defenses and is 35. Brady and brees are making it look easy to play well into your 40s, but maybe it's harder when you run around a lot and play in the cold. Maybe he's making so much money on his commercials that he's not staying in peak athletic shape.  Maybe his body type just isn't built for it. 

There's a good chance the packers improve their receivers. They may be in the Antonio brown or obj market, which would relegate adams to number two status immediately. There are other good options oom free agency and the draft who could allow rodgers to spread the ball out more.

And finally, he's been a touchdown machine when the packers were struggling to find a run game. Even if he keeps up the high target volume and Rodgers doesn't regress, he could see his touchdown numbers come down. 

All of that is concerning to me. It doesn't mean i don't want him, but he's not the slam dunk wr1 that i think a lot of people think he is. I would still rather have him in dynasty than Antonio brown (who could see a huge drop in numbers on a new team) and i think he has upside to continue to improve even on his excellent 2018 numbers, but i think people are starting to over value him a little now. 

You make some great points, thank you for the post. I was never a huge fan until this last season when he proved me wrong against top coverage. I agree with a lot of what you brought up though and think the main issue will be a more balanced offense moving forward. He is a TD magnet and should continue to get opportunities. The value in GB seems to be who will be the next young receiver to separate themselves from the others. No idea who that may be...may not be on the roster currently.

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12 team PPR. 1 RB start. I'm the one getting Jones. Just figured he was worth taking a chance on.

Team A gave up Foster, Robert BUF WR
Team B gave up Jones, Ronald TBB RB
 

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6 hours ago, Denver724 said:

12 team PPR. 1 RB start. I'm the one getting Jones. Just figured he was worth taking a chance on.

Team A gave up Foster, Robert BUF WR
Team B gave up Jones, Ronald TBB RB
 

I like Foster here, he seems to have an opportunity to receive targets with the Bills.  Ronald Jones couldn’t beat out Barber and TB may be active in Free Agency for a RB.

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10 minutes ago, Matt's Eagles said:

12 Team PPR/1.5 TE PPR

 

Team A got McKinnion/Breida, TY Hilton, Ian Thomas, 2.5

Team B Matt Ryan, Ingram, Duke Johnson, A Robinson, Crowder, 1.7

 

 

I'll take the SF RB's and Hilton pretty easily. A whole bunch of almost nothing on the other side.

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