My biggest concern with Mixon is that he's never really separated himself from his teammates. We keep hearing about how Cinci was a bad situation but every time Mixon gets hurt a mediocre Gio Bernard steps in and doesn't miss a beat.
19.0
13.3
29.9
19.6
26.7
Those are Gio's fantasy points in the games he started because Mixon was hurt the last two years, and he did it while averaging almost 5ypc rushing.
So why are we operating under this weird assumption that Mixon was in some crummy spot that can only get better with the new regime? And if Gio can do that, why isn't Mixon doing even more?
I'm going long.
I would not label Gio as mediocre. For years, basically pre-Kamara, during every draft I'd hear people say teams like so and so because they think he can be like Gio. He's not elite, he's not a feature back, but before Kamara dazzled everyone he was kind of the prototype third down/COP back. A high quality backup who could do the job a few weeks if called upon. We might define mediocre different, but he's not that to me
Mixon has only missed 4 games in his career, you are listing 5. I'm guessing you are utilizing a game where Mixon went out after 7 snaps because that was his biggest output in any game since Mixon arrived. That kind of seems like cherry picking because you left out the game that Mixon went down after 17 snaps. If you'd used the game he got 17 snaps you could have propped up the shaky YPC point but suffered in fantasy production. Just trying to get on same page as you for the games you are using.
So I'll just pick from your cherry tree and use the 5 games you used. In those 5 games Gio as a rusher: 12/61, 15/69, 11/62, 14/30 and the cherry picked game he exploded for 23/116 after Mixon went down . As you can see rushing production was not a major part of his fantasy production. We extrapolate that over 16 games that's 1,081 yards rushing, heavily propped up by one game. But in those 5 games he scored 5 TD's, caught 25 passes for 185 yards. We take all those numbers over 16 games and it's a solid 1,081 yards rushing, 80 receptions/ 592 yards and 16 TD's. That's outstanding per game fantasy production but you presented this in what I feel was misleading when you say Gio averaged nearly 5 yards a carry and provided big fantasy production. It's misleading because the bulk of the fantasy production was from heavy involvement as a pass receiver and inordinate high TD pace. The actual rushing numbers gave Gio 6.7 fantasy points a game. Bengals obviously also used him differently then Mixon, rushing him less and throwing to him more which makes sense considering Gio's more of a COP/third down guy.
Gio basically scored a unusual high amount of TD's, caught a bunch of passes and had one big game rushing. A high quality second round pass catching/COP RB doing his job for a few weeks. To me that's not a reflection on Mixon. I'm not down on Hunt because Williams was more involved as a receiver and put up big fantasy points. I'm not down on Elliot because in the 6 games he missed last year Alfred Morris slightly outrushed him in YPC. Backups, some high quality backups, coming in and doing their jobs a few weeks when called upon is not to me a reflection in anyway on the ability of the normal starting RB.
That's more words that have probably been used on Gio in a thread in a few years. I think we might have lost some people. LOL.
Next on what you term "this weird assumption" that Mixon was a in crummy spot and would get better. Let me houseclean and say I did not say he was in a crummy spot. But I for sure would not label it good, would you? I do think it improves but a lot of those reasons are window dressing and not the key point. New coach(which could be huge), Dalton and Green back to open up the offense and hopefully no in-season knee surgery are all things I expect would help him. But the big point I was trying to make earlier was he does not need to improve as a runner or much if any in efficency, for him to take the next step up in fantasy from a back end RB1 to elite top 5 status is simply catch more passes. I don't think expecting him to do this is a weird assumption considering he's pretty skilled at it. Looking at him vs Elliot and as I pointed out the only thing that made Elliot better in fantasy per game production last year then Mixon was what Elliot did as a receiver. That got Elliot to put up about 4.5 fantasy points a game more then Mixon. If Mixon simply catches one more pass a game for 10 yards he'll cut that gap almost in half.
I think the LOWEST amount of per game production as a receiver for all the RB's who outscored Mixon in PPG fantasy last year was James Conner at 8.5 fantasy points per game in receiving. Mixon put up 5.6 points a game receiving. Mixon was the 9th best RB in PPG production last year and the 8 RB's who outproduced him put up between 2.9-8.75 more points per game as receivers then Mixon. That's what is keeping him from joining the elite instead of just being a solid RB1.