Yeah let's not get into the "no merit" stuff. I wasn't saying you were crazy, just that you being relatively low on Allen and still thinking he's more valuable than a dynasty RB1 means Allen's market price is out of whack.
I'm fine with saying Gordon is overpriced right now, and I agree he's not likely to repeat his 2016 numbers... ever. I'm talking more about Allen. I keep seeing people prefer the Allrn side of trades I think are lopsided the other way. Apparently I'm much more down on Allen than the consensus.
He's been in the league 4 years and missed 26 of 64 games. The last 3 years he's had season ending injuties - an ACL week 1 this year, a lacerated kidney last year, and a sprained ankle with a fractured collarbone the year before that. That might just be bad luck - his only prior knee injury to his ACL was a PCL in college, and it happened week 1. Or it might be that he plays harder than he practices, or harder than his body is capable of. It doesn't matter what I think, it matters what a new coaching staff thinks, and whether thry want to give him the volume he was getting before. Red flag.
Red flag 2 is that there are better secondary players around him. Maybe Rivers sets new high water marks, maybe everyone but Allen regresses. But I don't see him getting over 11 targets a game again. That's a big red flag.
Red flag number 3 is that he's never had a full season of wr1 performance. His high water marks are low 70s catches for just over 1000 yards and 8 tds. Yeah, I mentioned the injuries already. But the question is whether he will ever put up true stud wr numbers for a full season. Even in his 2015 half season, he only had 4 tds in 8 games. And now they have two new big targets in williams and henry, a new deep target in benjamin, and a running back who scored a bunch of touchdowns last year.
I don't see Allen becoming a primary option in the red zone, he's a 10-11 yards per catch guy, and he may get a diminished target volume. That makes him a younger Edelman. But he's commanding way more in trades than Edelman did. Think about that before investing heavily in him.