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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (16 Viewers)

EBF said:
That makes sense. Ross is still out there and could be an option, but I will probably be taking Mixon as long as he's picked somewhat high. I think he's the real deal. He can do everything like LeVeon Bell and Zeke Elliott. I understand the off-field stuff, but to me one incidence of violence isn't indicative of a pattern like you see with the substance abuse guys (i.e. Blackmon, Gordon, M Bryant).

I probably could've asked for more for Julio and probably should've, but Treadwell/Wentz/1.09 help offset some of the risk.
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Will you still feel warm and fuzzy if Mixon goes undrafted?

 
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I don't think it will happen, and I'm not sure how much it matters. Look at Tyreek Hill and Isaiah Crowell. The cream rises.

With Mixon there will be a fear that he's going to get into trouble, but I don't think one violent outburst is necessarily the sign of chronic behavior. It worries me a lot less than alcohol or drug problems, which seem hard for players to shake.

 
EBF said:
I don't think it will happen, and I'm not sure how much it matters. Look at Tyreek Hill and Isaiah Crowell. The cream rises.

With Mixon there will be a fear that he's going to get into trouble, but I don't think one violent outburst is necessarily the sign of chronic behavior. It worries me a lot less than alcohol or drug problems, which seem hard for players to shake.
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Again, will you feel warm and fuzzy if he goes undrafted since he was the main focal point of you trading Julio Jones?

 
Yeah it seems at least reasonable in a normal league.  But devy weakened this is basically Wentz, Treadwell, 1.06 and 2.02 or so.  That seems awfully light for Julio in a PPR even if you're looking to sell.

 
Really tough to give up on someone like Julio.

Unless you're in rebuild and you think Treadwell has WR1 potential (I don't) and Mixon is going to get a decent draft spot. Even then, I'd probably have a tough time giving up Julio...

 
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12 Team PPR

Gave: Tyrell Williams, ADP, 1.7, 2.7 

Got: 1.1

This was counter to my Offer that was same as above without ADP. 

 
12 team PPR, TE bonus, contract year league

Team A (league champ) trades OBJ, Julio Jones, Kelce (all must move guys)

Team B trades AB, Mike Evans, pick 1.6, 2018 1st

 
kutta said:
Tough to say without knowing all the rules.
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Doubt it. Unless all of Team B's guys are also must move which it didn't say they were. Team B would have to be picking up much cheaper contracts than what he gave up which is unlikely given he is picking up guys with expiring contracts.

Would like to see the details still as well.

 
jeaton6 said:
12 Team PPR

Gave: Tyrell Williams, ADP, 1.7, 2.7 

Got: 1.1

This was counter to my Offer that was same as above without ADP. 
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Very nice deal for the top pick.  Your initial offer would have been laughed at in many leagues, the deal probably would be too.

ghostguy123 said:
12 team PPR with 1.5 PPR for TEs (FFPC)

Melvin Gordon and Tajae Sharpre

for

Keenan Allen and Greg Olsen
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I actually like sharpe but easily Keenan / Olsen - even with allen's injury history. 

Matt's Eagles said:
12 team PPR, TE bonus, contract year league

Team A (league champ) trades OBJ, Julio Jones, Kelce (all must move guys)

Team B trades AB, Mike Evans, pick 1.6, 2018 1st
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Looks like there's a reason he's the champ. I'd take brown, Evans and the picks in normal leagues. 

 
menobrown said:
I'm not as big on Allen as most but I'd still put his value at least on par with Gordon which essentially makes Olsen free.
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This seems crazy to me. Allen is a volume guy who has had back to back season ending injuries.  Two years ago he started the season red hot with an 8 game stretch that included 12 for 133 and 2 tds, 15 for 166, 14 for 157 and 9 for 89. Big games, all of them, but the yards per catch are low.

It was all volume. He had 67/725/4 on 89 targets in 8 games. He's not going to get 134 catches on 178 targets. 

The year before that he went 77/783/4. His rookie year he had 71/1046/8 - eerily similar to tyrell williams' 69/1057/7 this year.

When Allen is the primary option in thd offense, sure, I like him a lot. But they have williams, and henry, and benjamin. I'm not even sure I prefer Allen to Williams straight up, but he's pulling wr1 value in trades before he's even fully healthy from an acl injury. While they change cities. And have two new stud targets in town. He might be a buy low guy, and gordon might be a sell high guy, but they still shouldn't be equal in trade value.

 
Team A receives Sammy Watkins

Team B receives 1.03

I guess if you're going to trade Sammy Watkins because you fear his foot this is the draft to do it.

 
fruity pebbles said:
Gimme Sammy
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I can see why most will say this, it's always the canned response when trading a name player for early picks, but getting one of Fournette, Cook, Williams, or Davis (whichever is the flavor you like) for a damaged Watkins isn't such a bad thing.

 
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JohnnyU said:
I can see why most will say this, but getting one of Fornette, Cook, Williams, or Davis for a damaged Watkins isn't a bad thing.
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Not sure how damaged he is, its a fairly common injury. Fournette and Cook will be gone in most leagues. Id take him over the rookie WRs pretty easily. Hes only a year older than them.

 
fruity pebbles said:
Not sure how damaged he is, its a fairly common injury. Fournette and Cook will be gone in most leagues. Id take him over the rookie WRs pretty easily. Hes only a year older than them.
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Two surgeries for the same foot for the same injury (Jones Fracture) isn't common.  Under normal circumstances I would side with the Sammy end of the deal, but this is a special draft IMO and I believe I would prefer Mike Williams, Dalvin Cook, or Leonard Fournette over Sammy Watkins given his current foot issues.  If it was on another part of his body north of this legs I wouldn't be as worried.  His foot may never be right and it sure wasn't in 2016 and the injury happened in 2014/ 2015.  Watkins may eventually heal just fine, but getting one one of the top studs in a very good draft is the time to make the move IMO.  It's a perfect time to mitigate risk.

 
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JohnnyU said:
Two surgeries for the same foot for the same injury (Jones Fracture) isn't common.  Under normal circumstances I would side with the Sammy end of the deal, but this is a special draft IMO and I believe I would prefer Mike Williams, Dalvin Cook, or Leonard Fournette over Sammy Watkins given his current foot issues.  If it was on another part of his body north of this legs I wouldn't be as worried.  His foot may never be right and it sure wasn't in 2016 and the injury happened in 2014/ 2015.  Watkins may eventually heal just fine, but getting one one of the top studs in a very good draft is the time to make the move IMO.  It's a perfect time to mitigate risk.
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Jones Fxs are very common.....Durant, Crabtree, Julio, Dez off the top of my head. Believe all but Crabs needed more than one surgery on the same foot. 

 
fruity pebbles said:
Jones Fxs are very common.....Durant, Crabtree, Julio, Dez off the top of my head. Believe all but Crabs needed more than one surgery on the same foot. 
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Even in the best case scenario you couldn't pick a better draft to mitigate the risk to Watkins foot if you have a top 3 pick.  You can't just assume he will be the same Watkins prior to the injury and IMO they still have an unsettled QB situation.   Again, under normal circumstances I would agree with you and take Sammy, but this draft is special IMO.  It may prove me wrong, but even if it does, you're going to get a pretty good football player in this year's draft at 1.3 and to some it is worth it considering the uncertainty with Watkins' future. 

 
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bostonfred said:
This seems crazy to me. Allen is a volume guy who has had back to back season ending injuries.  Two years ago he started the season red hot with an 8 game stretch that included 12 for 133 and 2 tds, 15 for 166, 14 for 157 and 9 for 89. Big games, all of them, but the yards per catch are low.

It was all volume. He had 67/725/4 on 89 targets in 8 games. He's not going to get 134 catches on 178 targets. 

The year before that he went 77/783/4. His rookie year he had 71/1046/8 - eerily similar to tyrell williams' 69/1057/7 this year.

When Allen is the primary option in thd offense, sure, I like him a lot. But they have williams, and henry, and benjamin. I'm not even sure I prefer Allen to Williams straight up, but he's pulling wr1 value in trades before he's even fully healthy from an acl injury. While they change cities. And have two new stud targets in town. He might be a buy low guy, and gordon might be a sell high guy, but they still shouldn't be equal in trade value.
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Your reasoning has no merit to me and 100% ignores Gordon's situations last year where he was  a sub 4 YPC RB TD whose volume was heavily aided  due to loss of not only Woodhead but Oliver earlier.

 
menobrown said:
Your reasoning has no merit to me and 100% ignores Gordon's situations last year where he was  a sub 4 YPC RB TD whose volume was heavily aided  due to loss of not only Woodhead but Oliver earlier.
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Yeah let's not get into the "no merit" stuff. I wasn't saying you were crazy, just that you being relatively low on Allen and still thinking he's more valuable than a dynasty RB1 means Allen's market price is out of whack.

I'm fine with saying Gordon is overpriced right now, and I agree he's not likely to repeat his 2016 numbers... ever. I'm talking more about Allen. I keep seeing people prefer the Allrn side of trades I think are lopsided the other way. Apparently I'm much more down on Allen than the consensus.

He's been in the league 4 years and missed 26 of 64 games. The last 3 years he's had season ending injuties - an ACL week 1 this year, a lacerated kidney last year, and a sprained ankle with a fractured collarbone the year before that. That might just be bad luck - his only prior knee injury to his ACL was a PCL in college, and it happened week 1. Or it might be that he plays harder than he practices, or harder than his body is capable of.  It doesn't matter what I think, it matters what a new coaching staff thinks, and whether thry want to give him the volume he was getting before. Red flag.

Red flag 2 is that there are better secondary players around him. Maybe Rivers sets new high water marks, maybe everyone but Allen regresses. But I don't see him getting over 11 targets a game again. That's a big red flag.

Red flag number 3 is that he's never had a full season of wr1 performance. His high water marks are low 70s catches for just over 1000 yards and 8 tds. Yeah, I mentioned the injuries already. But the question is whether he will ever put up true stud wr numbers for a full season. Even in his 2015 half season, he only had 4 tds in 8 games. And now they have two new big targets in williams and henry, a new deep target in benjamin, and a running back who scored a bunch of touchdowns last year.

I don't see Allen becoming a primary option in the red zone, he's a 10-11 yards per catch guy, and he may get a diminished target volume. That makes him a younger Edelman. But he's commanding way more in trades than Edelman did. Think about that before investing heavily in him. 

 
JohnnyU said:
Even in the best case scenario you couldn't pick a better draft to mitigate the risk to Watkins foot if you have a top 3 pick.  You can't just assume he will be the same Watkins prior to the injury and IMO they still have an unsettled QB situation.   Again, under normal circumstances I would agree with you and take Sammy, but this draft is special IMO.  It may prove me wrong, but even if it does, you're going to get a pretty good football player in this year's draft at 1.3 and to some it is worth it considering the uncertainty with Watkins' future. 
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Could you explain to me what is so special about the2017 draft compared to other draft classes?

2014 is perhaps the best draft class for FF I have seen and I have been doing this for awhile. Sammy Watkins the cream of that draft class.

Do you think the 2017 draft is as good as 2014? 

 
bostonfred said:
Yeah let's not get into the "no merit" stuff. I wasn't saying you were crazy, just that you being relatively low on Allen and still thinking he's more valuable than a dynasty RB1 means Allen's market price is out of whack.

I'm fine with saying Gordon is overpriced right now, and I agree he's not likely to repeat his 2016 numbers... ever. I'm talking more about Allen. I keep seeing people prefer the Allrn side of trades I think are lopsided the other way. Apparently I'm much more down on Allen than the consensus.

He's been in the league 4 years and missed 26 of 64 games. The last 3 years he's had season ending injuties - an ACL week 1 this year, a lacerated kidney last year, and a sprained ankle with a fractured collarbone the year before that. That might just be bad luck - his only prior knee injury to his ACL was a PCL in college, and it happened week 1. Or it might be that he plays harder than he practices, or harder than his body is capable of.  It doesn't matter what I think, it matters what a new coaching staff thinks, and whether thry want to give him the volume he was getting before. Red flag.

Red flag 2 is that there are better secondary players around him. Maybe Rivers sets new high water marks, maybe everyone but Allen regresses. But I don't see him getting over 11 targets a game again. That's a big red flag.

Red flag number 3 is that he's never had a full season of wr1 performance. His high water marks are low 70s catches for just over 1000 yards and 8 tds. Yeah, I mentioned the injuries already. But the question is whether he will ever put up true stud wr numbers for a full season. Even in his 2015 half season, he only had 4 tds in 8 games. And now they have two new big targets in williams and henry, a new deep target in benjamin, and a running back who scored a bunch of touchdowns last year.

I don't see Allen becoming a primary option in the red zone, he's a 10-11 yards per catch guy, and he may get a diminished target volume. That makes him a younger Edelman. But he's commanding way more in trades than Edelman did. Think about that before investing heavily in him. 
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 I don't disagree on what you are saying on Allen in the least, in fact am in almost total agreement which is why I said in my original response to the trade I'm not as high on Allen as most.  But comping Allen vs Gordon and if you want to ding Allen for being volume dependent and injuries I think you got to do the same to Gordon.

Personally I'm not interested in investing in Allen or Gordon at their current market price in redraft or dynasty.

 
Biabreakable said:
Could you explain to me what is so special about the2017 draft compared to other draft classes?

2014 is perhaps the best draft class for FF I have seen and I have been doing this for awhile. Sammy Watkins the cream of that draft class.

Do you think the 2017 draft is as good as 2014? 
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Fwiw, I think it's close.  But watkins has not been the cream of his class.  If you think he'll perform going forward like he was projected, it's a close trade.  But many have soured on watkins. 

I'd take the 3.

 
This is a strong draft class but it's not that strong at the top for WRs.  If you could guarantee Cook or Fournette out of the 1.03 then I think it would be a decent get for Sammy.  But when they're gone (which they likely will be) I think you can't really take a draft that's strong because the RBs are strong at the top and because it's deep and apply that to 1.03 where the top RBs are gone and depth doesn't come into play yet.

You're basically looking at a straight swap of Sammy for this year's best rookie WR.  The problem is this is a pretty average draft class when it comes to just comparing "the top WR".  This isn't an AJG or Julio Jones type prospect that is going to be sitting on the board here.
 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
This is a strong draft class but it's not that strong at the top for WRs.  If you could guarantee Cook or Fournette out of the 1.03 then I think it would be a decent get for Sammy.  But when they're gone (which they likely will be) I think you can't really take a draft that's strong because the RBs are strong at the top and because it's deep and apply that to 1.03 where the top RBs are gone and depth doesn't come into play yet.

You're basically looking at a straight swap of Sammy for this year's best rookie WR.  The problem is this is a pretty average draft class when it comes to just comparing "the top WR".  This isn't an AJG or Julio Jones type prospect that is going to be sitting on the board here.
 
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Corey Davis should be the player watkins was supposed to be.  Many will prefer Mike Williams, so that's 4.  But no, they're probably not Julio or green.  Neither is watkins. 

 
FUBAR said:
Corey Davis should be the player watkins was supposed to be.  Many will prefer Mike Williams, so that's 4.  But no, they're probably not Julio or green.  Neither is watkins. 
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Yeah that's fair.  I think the point I'm making is people are using the notion that this is a "strong draft class" and applying that to places where it is not particularly strong.  Just because it is strong as a whole doesn't mean that it is strong everywhere.  The top WR of the class is one of those areas, so it's a bit of a false narrative to say "I'm getting the top WR in a strong draft class" as if the top WR is particularly strong this year.  In that category, it's pretty "meh" compared to most years, falling somewhere in the average to below average category IMHO.

 
FUBAR said:
Corey Davis should be the player watkins was supposed to be.  Many will prefer Mike Williams, so that's 4.  But no, they're probably not Julio or green.  Neither is watkins. 
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The major appeal to me on gambling on Davis or Williams vs Watkins is gambling that one of them has a much better shot of getting paired with a young and/or good QB.

 
menobrown said:
The major appeal to me on gambling on Davis or Williams vs Watkins is gambling that one of them has a much better shot of getting paired with a young and/or good QB.
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Sure.  Especially when you can choose which of the two you want.  Although there's no guarantee, while Williams has been mocked to Tennessee in quite a few mocks which seems promising.  In Walterfootball's most recent, Tampa Bay takes Davis while Williams heads to Arizona.  

 
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