In a Superflex? Gimme the first. In non-SF, it’s a coin flip (depends on my roster).superflex league. In a major rebuild, just took over this team this offset and hitting reset button.
Gave: D. Montgomery
received: 2021 1st
In a Superflex? Gimme the first. In non-SF, it’s a coin flip (depends on my roster).superflex league. In a major rebuild, just took over this team this offset and hitting reset button.
Gave: D. Montgomery
received: 2021 1st
Kirk was worth ~ 1st before Hopkins came to town. And now? Not so much.I am real new to Dynasty leagues as last year was my first try at a dynasty league. One of the most difficult areas for me is trying to calculate what the value is of "next year's" draft picks are, i.e. 2021. I use DTC,but not sure if that is the most accurate way to judge picks.
This league is really a "Rookie/Vet draft" as the rosters are at 27 players with 15 keepers declared and then we draft the remaining players plus rookies together in August. I am learning, but any assistance would be welcome and I would be grateful for you sharing your knowledge.
Right now I have an offer:
I get: Kirk, WR Arizona
I give up: 2021 first round selection
Thoughts on this offer and Dynasty league with rookie/vet drafts would be appreciated!!
It was pick 10 this year (I made the trade before the end of last season).How high was the 1st? He would be a top 5 pick this year if he was a rookie this year. What did he go 2 last year? I get losing faith but I'd need decent value because I can see a world where he could be a top 10 fantasy RB. Not saying he will though.
I would take the 1st...Montgomery could definitely play much better this year as he had a decent year last year...if he doesn't you won't sniff anything close to a #1 and with how Nagy is running this offense I would rather cash out now and not regret it...if he does play well you still get a #1 in a Super-flex where (at least right now) there should be 3-4 viable QBs in next year's draft...one other thing about Montgomery, he was a third round pick (#73 overall)...that is a pretty high selection but he is not a first or high second round pick where I maybe more patient...he may simply be what he was last year which is solid but I would cash out now if I could get a #1.superflex league. In a major rebuild, just took over this team this offset and hitting reset button.
Gave: D. Montgomery
received: 2021 1st
I'm not high on Montgomery but I think some of you might be a little too low on him. I wouldn't put Moss anywhere close. He has to compete with Singletary and has a QB that had 9 rushing TDs last year. Not even close to a comp. I could see it more in SF. I don't play in those really. I guess I just don't like to sell low and that is what this feels like to me.It was pick 10 this year (I made the trade before the end of last season).
And no, Montgomery wouldn't be a top 5 pick this year. He went at pick 7 last year. He'd probably be a later first this year but personally I think he's about equivalent to Zack Moss.
Well then you'd be the guy giving up the first, and Bob's your uncle for both parties.I'm not high on Montgomery but I think some of you might be a little too low on him. I wouldn't put Moss anywhere close. He has to compete with Singletary and has a QB that had 9 rushing TDs last year. Not even close to a comp. I could see it more in SF. I don't play in those really. I guess I just don't like to sell low and that is what this feels like to me.
Some of you act like the 2nd rd pick isn't anything. Especially given Gurley is going for a 2nd rd pick in trades. No one is going to give you a 1st for Gurley. Plus, I like what McFarland brings to the table and is the wildcard in this trade.Not a big fan of Gurley but I would rather have him...when you look at the RB landscape there is a lot of uncertainty so even if you have your worries about Gurley (and you should) he is still set-up to be pretty productive this year...once the season starts and reality sets in his value will only increase...I would much rather see if he can help me win a title this year then deal him for a #2 next year and a RB that while a solid prospect still has plenty of questions...if the season does not go as well as expected for Team B you should still be able to get at least this value back for Gurley or quite possibly much more...just don't see the need to make this deal.
Smith and Hurst by a lot.12 team PPR
Gave:
2.11 (KJ Hamler)
Got:
Jonnu Smith, 3.03 (Hayden Hurst)
---
I was going to pick Rob Gronkowski at 2.11 (very TE needy) and thought he might fall to 3.03, but he went at 2.12 so I went with Hurst instead.
True. I'd give up my 2021 1st if I had one for him but I think selling value (if I dealt with him all last year and drafted him) is different than buying value too.Well then you'd be the guy giving up the first, and Bob's your uncle for both parties.
If you'd expect more than a 1st for him, you'd be keeping him.True. I'd give up my 2021 1st if I had one for him but I think selling value (if I dealt with him all last year and drafted him) is different than buying value too.
No one is giving up a first for Montgomery anymore than anyone is giving up a first for Gurley, or at least they shouldn't.True. I'd give up my 2021 1st if I had one for him but I think selling value (if I dealt with him all last year and drafted him) is different than buying value too.
Yeah, that was kind of my feeling as well. The other guy offered the same trade with Ian Thomas instead but I decided I liked Jonnu more. I honestly felt a little bad because I think he gambled on Tua falling (who ended up going at 2.10, trade was made w/ 2.09 otc). He only has two old QBs and Tua was by far the best player on the board IMO.Smith and Hurst by a lot.
A rookie #3 wr with hands issues for two potential top 10 TEs? That's robbery.
I think you made a big mistake here.The other guy offered the same trade with Ian Thomas instead but I decided I liked Jonnu more.
Eh, maybe -- personally I'm not that high on Thomas with a new offense and QB, but he certainly might prove to be the better player going forward. I waffled on it but Smith had the most targets aside from AJ Brown over the last several weeks of the season so I'm hopeful he's got a higher upside. Honestly I don't think either will be anything more than a borderline TE1.I think you made a big mistake here.
I don't think anyone is gonna give up a #1 for Gurley...I also would rather see what Gurley has this year and see if he can help me win a title then get a #2 a year from now...as for McFarland he is a wildcard but not someone I am overly high on so I'd rather see what Gurley has to offer in a situation where he barely has any competition for touches and if he fails I simply move on.Some of you act like the 2nd rd pick isn't anything. Especially given Gurley is going for a 2nd rd pick in trades. No one is going to give you a 1st for Gurley. Plus, I like what McFarland brings to the table and is the wildcard in this trade.
That is an interesting trade. I could see the argument both ways. A ton to give up but MT is an animal. I'm always trying to win so I'd probably make this trade if I had enough RBs. I'm curious what others think.Not my league but my friend gave:
WR M Thomas
for
1.01
1.02
This is a 12 year PPR league
MTNot my league but my friend gave:
WR M Thomas
for
1.01
1.02
This is a 12 year PPR league
I would not have to think long or hard on deciding to cash out on MT and take those picks.Not my league but my friend gave:
WR M Thomas
for
1.01
1.02
This is a 12 year PPR league
Dynasty considers more than 2020.I am not a huge Montgomery fan and own him nowhere but I may consider shopping around for him a bit if I can get him for a late 1st or early 2nd. It wouldn't be the first time we've seen a rookie thrust into the job struggle and then gain value in his second year (Shady McCoy, Melvin Gordon). Even if he doesn't, the volume should be there this year and contenders are commonly willing to pay a late 1st for a 30ish year old RB that they only expect to get one year out of, so you basically get that but with some long term upside at the same price.
The old "three nickels for a quarter" type of deal.12 team PPR - not involved.
Fournette, Devin Singletary, and Fuller
for
1.02
Only way I would do this is if my RBs were a complete train-wreck and this was only way to correct it and even then I would be hesitant because unless both picks turn into studs (not merely good but top-shelf) this will backfire...Thomas is 27 years and is a legit top 5 player who should have quite a few years left especially when you factor in his style of play...when you look at the shelf-life of WRs I just don't think I could trade him for draft picks, I would really need to swap out one of those picks for an established stud to cut down on the room for error...the more I think of it the more I realize I would stand pat with Thomas and not get greedy.Not my league but my friend gave:
WR M Thomas
for
1.01
1.02
This is a 12 year PPR league
Obviously.Dynasty considers more than 2020.
Montgomery doesn’t appear to be very good, but I could be wrong.Obviously.
My point was that contenders often have no problem trading a late 1st for an older RB just to get one year of RB2 production out of them. Think 30 year old Shady McCoy a couple years ago. People who thought they had a chance couldn't give away their 1st quickly enough to plug in 1 year or RB2 production.
That's kind of how I would look at Montgomery. As a base case, the volume alone is going to make him a decent RB2 even if he still sucks again this year. So in a base case trading a late 1st or early 2nd for him would be no different than trading one for a 30 year old Shady a few years ago or an about to turn 30 Mark Ingram last year, except that Montgomery has the additional upside that if he actually ends up playing better you could end up with a really valuable asset.
Last year the hype train was sky high on Monty in mini camp and training camp. I seen 1 popular fantasy expert guy saying last year at this time Monty would be a 1st round startup pick this year. I remember struggling over the Sanders/Monty decision I had in 1 draft.Montgomery doesn’t appear to be very good, but I could be wrong.
It was? I think the feeling was more, "Yeah, sure. I guess. Whatever."Last year the hype train was sky high on Monty in mini camp and training camp. I seen 1 popular fantasy expert guy saying last year at this time Monty would be a 1st round startup pick this year. I remember struggling over the Sanders/Monty decision I had in 1 draft.
Not sure I can confirm that, but in one of my leagues Monty went at 1.4 right after Sanders at 1.3 so it didn't appear much difference besides 1 pick and possible tier break.It was? I think the feeling was more, "Yeah, sure. I guess. Whatever."
Hardly. If either turns into a stud you break even, and the other one will hold 70-99% of his trade value for a year or two if you feel the need to cash out/consolidate something. Even if neither stud out they are going to hold that 70-99% trade value and you can probably recover into a DJ Moore type fallback.Only way I would do this is if my RBs were a complete train-wreck and this was only way to correct it and even then I would be hesitant because unless both picks turn into studs (not merely good but top-shelf) this will backfire...Thomas is 27 years and is a legit top 5 player who should have quite a few years left especially when you factor in his style of play...when you look at the shelf-life of WRs I just don't think I could trade him for draft picks, I would really need to swap out one of those picks for an established stud to cut down on the room for error...the more I think of it the more I realize I would stand pat with Thomas and not get greedy.
Gonna disagree with you...you are dealing the #1 WR and debatable the #1 long-term asset in Thomas...I am not taking a risk to break even, if I am dealing Thomas I need more then that and the DJ Moore fallback is nothing but speculation, you have no idea if that option would be there, especially if the pick underwhelms.Hardly. If either turns into a stud you break even, and the other one will hold 70-99% of his trade value for a year or two if you feel the need to cash out/consolidate something. Even if neither stud out they are going to hold that 70-99% trade value and you can probably recover into a DJ Moore type fallback.
In the redraft world where I do 100 a year with 50 of them being in the final 2 weeks before kickoff of the year Montgomery moved all the way as high as 2nd round in some. In most he was an early to mid 4th round pick. Nagy was going to carry this kid to the moon and back was the belief at the time.It was? I think the feeling was more, "Yeah, sure. I guess. Whatever."
If there's a '20 ncaa season that's a steal. If not, who knows how that's going to shake out.12 team PPR:
I gave 2020 1.09 for 2021 mid 1st, 2nd, 3rd
Agreed. You already have the goods, why trade away for the possibility of getting the goods?Boston said:Gonna disagree with you...you are dealing the #1 WR and debatable the #1 long-term asset in Thomas...I am not taking a risk to break even, if I am dealing Thomas I need more then that and the DJ Moore fallback is nothing but speculation, you have no idea if that option would be there, especially if the pick underwhelms.
No one is saying he would be now, I hope, but I strongly feel the opinion of him last year rivaled the way the some would view their bottom of the top 5 RB's this year. Put another way if he was entering the league this year, as pick 73 with pretty much zero comp for the job, whereas I think most agree the top 5 RB's this year all face a fairly decent obstacle, I think in a decent amount of leagues he'd have pushed into that top 5 due to opportunity over talent. Not most of them, but a decent amount.SayWhat? said:at the thought that David Montgomery would be a top 5 rookie pick if he were in this year’s rookie draft. My word.
He went 1.2 in a lot of my rookie drafts, never made it past 1.4. Leagues may vary but in FFPC leagues his ADP was 1.3, ahead of Miles Sanders.Andy Dufresne said:It was? I think the feeling was more, "Yeah, sure. I guess. Whatever."
Superflex makes the picks even more valuable. But I'd easily move Monty for that. I kind of like him but just can't with what my Bears are doing. Absolutely inept.I don't like this deal at all. The Bears are a #####-show but a 1st (you have no idea where it will be) isn't enough. In my league, he was traded for a 2021 1st & 2nd and I thought that wasn't quite enough. I wouldn't sell on that young of a RB who is the lead back on their team. SuperFlex is a little different so maybe that changes this a bit but I'd think you could get more or I'd take the gamble to see if he turned it around this year.
Yeah I would need to have RBs but it would be awfully hard to turn this down.Jonesin For Some Football said:That is an interesting trade. I could see the argument both ways. A ton to give up but MT is an animal. I'm always trying to win so I'd probably make this trade if I had enough RBs. I'm curious what others think.
Yeah I was big on him and took him at 1.04. Went before me at 1.03 in another league and I spent the next few months trying to buy him from the guy. At one point I was turned down for DJ Moore and a future 1st. I sent this guy a ton of offers but no avail. Fast forward to the year's rookie draft and I tell him I won't even pay a 2nd for him. I probably would but I got like zero counters.Dez said:In the redraft world where I do 100 a year with 50 of them being in the final 2 weeks before kickoff of the year Montgomery moved all the way as high as 2nd round in some. In most he was an early to mid 4th round pick. Nagy was going to carry this kid to the moon and back was the belief at the time.
Also I do 3 later rookie drafts as well as my early ones.
In my July rookie draft Montgomery went pick 2.
In my 2 late August rookie drafts Montgomery went at 2 and 2.
So in 3 rookie drafts I did in July and August he went at 2 in all 3. That's the hype train full go.
One of those picks was probably enough, both is too much.12 Team PPR, 1QB
Team A (rebuilding) gets 1.07, 1.08
Team B (competing) gets Bell, Goff, 2021 2nd
Not seeing the logic here...Bell is 28 and averaged 3.2 YPC last year and Goff is a decent but nothing special starter in a 1 QB league...if the draft were to break right the team that is competing could get more help from the picks then the actual players.12 Team PPR, 1QB
Team A (rebuilding) gets 1.07, 1.08
Team B (competing) gets Bell, Goff, 2021 2nd
Some people can still get value based upon name rather than logic.Not seeing the logic here...Bell is 28 and averaged 3.2 YPC last year and Goff is a decent but nothing special starter in a 1 QB league...if the draft were to break right the team that is competing could get more help from the picks then the actual players.
I still find it hard to believe for anyone committing the time to playing Dynasty in 2020 thinks that way although there is no doubt some still do.Some people can still get value based upon name rather than logic.