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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (10 Viewers)

robb said:
I am real new to Dynasty leagues as last year was my first try at a dynasty league. One of the most difficult areas for me is trying to calculate what the value is of "next year's" draft picks are, i.e. 2021. I use DTC,but not sure if that is the most accurate way to judge picks.

This league is really a "Rookie/Vet draft" as the rosters are at 27 players with 15 keepers declared and then we draft the remaining players plus rookies together in August. I am learning, but any assistance would be welcome and I would be grateful for you sharing your knowledge.

Right now I have an offer:

I get: Kirk, WR Arizona

I give up: 2021 first round selection

Thoughts on this offer and Dynasty league with rookie/vet drafts would be appreciated!!
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Kirk was worth ~ 1st before Hopkins came to town. And now? Not so much. 

 
Jonesin For Some Football said:
How high was the 1st?  He would be a top 5 pick this year if he was a rookie this year.  What did he go 2 last year?  I get losing faith but I'd need decent value because I can see a world where he could be a top 10 fantasy RB.  Not saying he will though.
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It was pick 10 this year (I made the trade before the end of last season).

And no, Montgomery wouldn't be a top 5 pick this year. He went at pick 7 last year. He'd probably be a later first this year but personally I think he's about equivalent to Zack Moss.

 
smbkrypt24 said:
superflex league.  In a major rebuild, just took over this team this offset and hitting reset button.

Gave: D. Montgomery

received: 2021 1st
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I would take the 1st...Montgomery could definitely play much better this year as he had a decent year last year...if he doesn't you won't sniff anything close to a #1 and with how Nagy is running this offense I would rather cash out now and not regret it...if he does play well you still get a #1 in a Super-flex where (at least right now) there should be 3-4 viable QBs in next year's draft...one other thing about Montgomery, he was a third round pick (#73 overall)...that is a pretty high selection but he is  not a first or high second round pick where I maybe more patient...he may simply be what he was last year which is solid but I would cash out now if I could get a #1. 

 
Andy Dufresne said:
It was pick 10 this year (I made the trade before the end of last season).

And no, Montgomery wouldn't be a top 5 pick this year. He went at pick 7 last year. He'd probably be a later first this year but personally I think he's about equivalent to Zack Moss.
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I'm not high on Montgomery but I think some of you might be a little too low on him.  I wouldn't put Moss anywhere close.  He has to compete with Singletary and has a QB that had 9 rushing TDs last year.  Not even close to a comp.  I could see it more in SF.  I don't play in those really.  I guess I just don't like to sell low and that is what this feels like to me.

 
12 team PPR 

Gave:

2.11 (KJ Hamler)

Got:

Jonnu Smith, 3.03 (Hayden Hurst)

---

I was going to pick Rob Gronkowski at 2.11 (very TE needy) and thought he might fall to 3.03, but he went at 2.12 so I went with Hurst instead.

 
Jonesin For Some Football said:
I'm not high on Montgomery but I think some of you might be a little too low on him.  I wouldn't put Moss anywhere close.  He has to compete with Singletary and has a QB that had 9 rushing TDs last year.  Not even close to a comp.  I could see it more in SF.  I don't play in those really.  I guess I just don't like to sell low and that is what this feels like to me.
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Well then you'd be the guy giving up the first, and Bob's your uncle for both parties.

 
Boston said:
Not a big fan of Gurley but I would rather have him...when you look at the RB landscape there is a lot of uncertainty so even if you have your worries about Gurley (and you should) he is still set-up to be pretty productive this year...once the season starts and reality sets in his value will only increase...I would much rather see if he can help me win a title this year then deal him for a #2 next year and a RB that while a solid prospect still has plenty of questions...if the season does not go as well as expected for Team B you should still be able to get at least this value back for Gurley or quite possibly much more...just don't see the need to make this deal.
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Some of you act like the 2nd rd pick isn't anything.  Especially given Gurley is going for a 2nd rd pick in trades.  No one is going to give you a 1st for Gurley.  Plus, I like what McFarland brings to the table and is the wildcard in this trade.

 
mcintyre1 said:
12 team PPR 

Gave:

2.11 (KJ Hamler)

Got:

Jonnu Smith, 3.03 (Hayden Hurst)

---

I was going to pick Rob Gronkowski at 2.11 (very TE needy) and thought he might fall to 3.03, but he went at 2.12 so I went with Hurst instead.
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Smith and Hurst by a lot.

A rookie #3 wr with hands issues for two potential top 10 TEs? That's robbery.

 
Jonesin For Some Football said:
True.  I'd give up my 2021 1st if I had one for him but I think selling value (if I dealt with him all last year and drafted him) is different than buying value too.
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No one is giving up a first for Montgomery anymore than anyone is giving up a first for Gurley, or at least they shouldn't.

 
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Andy Dufresne said:
Smith and Hurst by a lot.

A rookie #3 wr with hands issues for two potential top 10 TEs? That's robbery.
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Yeah, that was kind of my feeling as well. The other guy offered the same trade with Ian Thomas instead but I decided I liked Jonnu more. I honestly felt a little bad because I think he gambled on Tua falling (who ended up going at 2.10, trade was made w/ 2.09 otc). He only has two old QBs and Tua was by far the best player on the board IMO.

 
menobrown said:
I think you made a big mistake here.
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Eh, maybe -- personally I'm not that high on Thomas with a new offense and QB, but he certainly might prove to be the better player going forward. I waffled on it but Smith had the most targets aside from AJ Brown over the last several weeks of the season so I'm hopeful he's got a higher upside. Honestly I don't think either will be anything more than a borderline TE1.

 
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JohnnyU said:
Some of you act like the 2nd rd pick isn't anything.  Especially given Gurley is going for a 2nd rd pick in trades.  No one is going to give you a 1st for Gurley.  Plus, I like what McFarland brings to the table and is the wildcard in this trade.
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I don't think anyone is gonna give up a #1 for Gurley...I also would rather see what Gurley has this year and see if he can help me win a title then get a #2 a year from now...as for McFarland he is a wildcard but not someone I am overly high on so I'd rather see what Gurley has to offer in a situation where he barely has any competition for touches and if he fails I simply move on.

 
I am not a huge Montgomery fan and own him nowhere but I may consider shopping around for him a bit if I can get him for a late 1st or early 2nd.  It wouldn't be the first time we've seen a rookie thrust into the job struggle and then gain value in his second year (Shady McCoy, Melvin Gordon).  Even if he doesn't, the volume should be there this year and contenders are commonly willing to pay a late 1st for a 30ish year old RB that they only expect to get one year out of, so you basically get that but with some long term upside at the same price.

 
For anyone who uses calculators, Dynasty Trade Analyzer has raised its prices on its valuation of the picks, something Dynasty Trade Dominator from RotoUnderwold already had done.

Pick 1.01 is now worth seven hundred points. A week or so ago it was six hundred points. 1.02 is about a hundred points higher, too, at 625 points up from about 525.

Makes those of us that traded our top picks a little rueful right now.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I am not a huge Montgomery fan and own him nowhere but I may consider shopping around for him a bit if I can get him for a late 1st or early 2nd.  It wouldn't be the first time we've seen a rookie thrust into the job struggle and then gain value in his second year (Shady McCoy, Melvin Gordon).  Even if he doesn't, the volume should be there this year and contenders are commonly willing to pay a late 1st for a 30ish year old RB that they only expect to get one year out of, so you basically get that but with some long term upside at the same price.
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Dynasty considers more than 2020.

 
kutta said:
12 team PPR - not involved.

Fournette, Devin Singletary, and Fuller

for

1.02
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The old "three nickels for a quarter" type of deal.

I don't think Fournette and Singletary are hopeless, but I like the pick side here. Think the pick is the most desirable asset by some ways.

 
Smokin Okie said:
Not my league but my friend gave:

WR M Thomas

for

1.01 
1.02

This is a 12 year PPR league
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Only way I would do this is if my RBs were a complete train-wreck and this was only way to correct it and even then I would be hesitant because unless both picks turn into studs (not merely good but top-shelf) this will backfire...Thomas is 27 years and is a legit top 5 player who should have quite a few years left especially when you factor in his style of play...when you look at the shelf-life of WRs I just don't think I could trade him for draft picks, I would really need to swap out one of those picks for an established stud to cut down on the room for error...the more I think of it the more I realize I would stand pat with Thomas and not get greedy.

 
JohnnyU said:
Dynasty considers more than 2020.
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Obviously.

My point was that contenders often have no problem trading a late 1st for an older RB just to get one year of RB2 production out of them.  Think 30 year old Shady McCoy a couple years ago.  People who thought they had a chance couldn't give away their 1st quickly enough to plug in 1 year or RB2 production.

That's kind of how I would look at Montgomery.  As a base case, the volume alone is going to make him a decent RB2 even if he still sucks again this year.  So in a base case trading a late 1st or early 2nd for him would be no different than trading one for a 30 year old Shady a few years ago or an about to turn 30 Mark Ingram last year, except that Montgomery has the additional upside that if he actually ends up playing better you could end up with a really valuable asset.

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
Obviously.

My point was that contenders often have no problem trading a late 1st for an older RB just to get one year of RB2 production out of them.  Think 30 year old Shady McCoy a couple years ago.  People who thought they had a chance couldn't give away their 1st quickly enough to plug in 1 year or RB2 production.

That's kind of how I would look at Montgomery.  As a base case, the volume alone is going to make him a decent RB2 even if he still sucks again this year.  So in a base case trading a late 1st or early 2nd for him would be no different than trading one for a 30 year old Shady a few years ago or an about to turn 30 Mark Ingram last year, except that Montgomery has the additional upside that if he actually ends up playing better you could end up with a really valuable asset.
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Montgomery doesn’t appear to be very good, but I could be wrong.

 
JohnnyU said:
Montgomery doesn’t appear to be very good, but I could be wrong.
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Last year the hype train was sky high on Monty in mini camp and training camp.  I seen 1 popular fantasy expert guy saying last year at this time Monty would be a 1st round startup pick this year.  I remember struggling over the Sanders/Monty decision I had in 1 draft.

 
Dez said:
Last year the hype train was sky high on Monty in mini camp and training camp.  I seen 1 popular fantasy expert guy saying last year at this time Monty would be a 1st round startup pick this year.  I remember struggling over the Sanders/Monty decision I had in 1 draft.
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It was? I think the feeling was more, "Yeah, sure. I guess. Whatever."

 
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Boston said:
Only way I would do this is if my RBs were a complete train-wreck and this was only way to correct it and even then I would be hesitant because unless both picks turn into studs (not merely good but top-shelf) this will backfire...Thomas is 27 years and is a legit top 5 player who should have quite a few years left especially when you factor in his style of play...when you look at the shelf-life of WRs I just don't think I could trade him for draft picks, I would really need to swap out one of those picks for an established stud to cut down on the room for error...the more I think of it the more I realize I would stand pat with Thomas and not get greedy.
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Hardly.  If either turns into a stud you break even, and the other one will hold 70-99% of his trade value for a year or two if you feel the need to cash out/consolidate something.  Even if neither stud out they are going to hold that 70-99% trade value and you can probably recover into a DJ Moore type fallback.

 
Hankmoody said:
Hardly.  If either turns into a stud you break even, and the other one will hold 70-99% of his trade value for a year or two if you feel the need to cash out/consolidate something.  Even if neither stud out they are going to hold that 70-99% trade value and you can probably recover into a DJ Moore type fallback.
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Gonna disagree with you...you are dealing the #1 WR and debatable the #1 long-term asset in Thomas...I am not taking a risk to break even, if I am dealing Thomas I need more then that and the DJ Moore fallback is nothing but speculation, you have no idea if that option would be there, especially if the pick underwhelms.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
It was? I think the feeling was more, "Yeah, sure. I guess. Whatever."
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In the redraft world where I do 100 a year with 50 of them being in the final 2 weeks before kickoff of the year Montgomery moved all the way as high as 2nd round in some.  In most he was an early to mid 4th round pick.  Nagy was going to carry this kid to the moon and back was the belief at the time.

Also I do 3 later rookie drafts as well as my early ones.

In my July rookie draft Montgomery went pick 2.

In my 2 late August rookie drafts Montgomery went at 2 and 2.

So in 3 rookie drafts I did in July and August he went at 2 in all 3.  That's the hype train full go.

 
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Boston said:
Gonna disagree with you...you are dealing the #1 WR and debatable the #1 long-term asset in Thomas...I am not taking a risk to break even, if I am dealing Thomas I need more then that and the DJ Moore fallback is nothing but speculation, you have no idea if that option would be there, especially if the pick underwhelms.
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Agreed.  You already have the goods, why trade away for the possibility of getting the goods?

 
SayWhat? said:
:lmao:  at the thought that David Montgomery would be a top 5 rookie pick if he were in this year’s rookie draft.  My word.
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No one is saying he would be now, I hope,  but I strongly feel the opinion of him last year rivaled the way the some would view their bottom of the top 5 RB's  this year.  Put another way if he was entering the league this year, as pick 73 with pretty much zero comp for the job, whereas I think most agree the top 5 RB's this year all face a fairly decent obstacle, I think in a decent amount of leagues he'd have pushed into that top 5 due to opportunity over talent. Not most of them, but a decent amount.

I would put him at RB6 of this draft right now, and I don't mean how I felt about him last year, I mean I would only take 5 RB's over him in this draft right now and I'm not even that high on the guy but again he's got opportunity and as Freebagel alluded to he'd not be the first RB to play better in year two.

Andy Dufresne said:
It was? I think the feeling was more, "Yeah, sure. I guess. Whatever."
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He went 1.2 in a lot of my rookie drafts, never made it past 1.4.  Leagues may vary but in FFPC leagues his ADP was 1.3, ahead of Miles Sanders.

In redrafts he was the second rookie drafted in almost every draft. By September in the FFPC/Football guys contest his ADP was 4.10, a few spots behind Derrick Henry and he went mid to late  late third round in a lot of my redrafts.

And to your point I'm not sure if people were so into the talent, he was just staring at Mike Davis as his main comp on an offense many thought was emerging.

 
Jonesin For Some Football said:
I don't like this deal at all.  The Bears are a #####-show but a 1st (you have no idea where it will be) isn't enough.  In my league, he was traded for a 2021 1st & 2nd and I thought that wasn't quite enough.  I wouldn't sell on that young of a RB who is the lead back on their team.  SuperFlex is a little different so maybe that changes this a bit but I'd think you could get more or I'd take the gamble to see if he turned it around this year.
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Superflex makes the picks even more valuable. But I'd easily move Monty for that. I kind of like him but just can't with what my Bears are doing. Absolutely inept.

 
Jonesin For Some Football said:
That is an interesting trade.  I could see the argument both ways.  A ton to give up but MT is an animal.  I'm always trying to win so I'd probably make this trade if I had enough RBs.  I'm curious what others think.
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Yeah I would need to have RBs but it would be awfully hard to turn this down.

 
Dez said:
In the redraft world where I do 100 a year with 50 of them being in the final 2 weeks before kickoff of the year Montgomery moved all the way as high as 2nd round in some.  In most he was an early to mid 4th round pick.  Nagy was going to carry this kid to the moon and back was the belief at the time.

Also I do 3 later rookie drafts as well as my early ones.

In my July rookie draft Montgomery went pick 2.

In my 2 late August rookie drafts Montgomery went at 2 and 2.

So in 3 rookie drafts I did in July and August he went at 2 in all 3.  That's the hype train full go.
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Yeah I was big on him and took him at 1.04. Went before me at 1.03 in another league and I spent the next few months trying to buy him from the guy. At one point I was turned down for DJ Moore and a future 1st. I sent this guy a ton of offers but no avail. Fast forward to the year's rookie draft and I tell him I won't even pay a 2nd for him. I probably would but I got like zero counters.

 
Matt's Eagles said:
12 Team PPR, 1QB 

Team A (rebuilding) gets 1.07, 1.08

Team B (competing) gets Bell, Goff, 2021 2nd
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Not seeing the logic here...Bell is 28 and averaged 3.2 YPC last year and Goff is a decent but nothing special starter in a 1 QB league...if the draft were to break right the team that is competing could get more help from the picks then the actual players.

 
Boston said:
Not seeing the logic here...Bell is 28 and averaged 3.2 YPC last year and Goff is a decent but nothing special starter in a 1 QB league...if the draft were to break right the team that is competing could get more help from the picks then the actual players.
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Some people can still get value based upon name rather than logic.

 
JohnnyU said:
Some people can still get value based upon name rather than logic.
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I still find it hard to believe for anyone committing the time to playing Dynasty in 2020 thinks that way although there is no doubt some still do.

 
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I personally wouldn't have made the trade but I could understand someone with limited options at RB and QB, who was looking to sure up a win now team with some depth, wanting the players over the picks. Chances are 7 and 8 are developmental pieces, likely WR's. 

You could definitely get better pieces with those picks though. No doubt.

 
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