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****OFFICIAL 2020 IN-SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****

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8 minutes ago, NE_REVIVAL said:

Surprised, i thought every1 would hate it, maybe its my man love for arob. 

 

I like Arob, and generally find him to be undervalued.  But for a rebuilding team, that's about the best you can ask for in return for him.  He got moved for a single first in my dynasty league last season, and that turned out to be the 1.05 this year.  You did well. 

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2 hours ago, menobrown said:

I hear this a lot, this 3 year window. My question is why the arbitrary amount of 3 years? I never hear a 2 or 4 year window, I truly never understood why the 3 year window was  so key for a lot of people.

Do you play dynasty? 

Going into each season I take a critical look at my roster and determine which players I want to own over the next 1-3 seasons.  This takes into account whether or not I feel like my team has a legitimate shot at the league championship.

4 years is an eternity in dynasty.  Just go look at the rankings from June of 2016 and you'll see that this is true.

2 years isn't enough time to adequately evaluate rookies and some other young players in developmental positions.

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2 hours ago, NE_REVIVAL said:

FFWC ppr, 1/2/3/1/2,  yr2 of orphan rebuild in a lopsided lg with 3 dominant tms

Gave Arob

Got 2021 1st & 2d, Michael Pittman

Hated to give up Arob, but felt it was right move for where this tm is right now (2 yrs away). Picks are from tm that finished dead last in 2020 and should be mid rd or better imo. Hopefully Aaron Rodgers will be playing in Indy next yr😏

This deal is so perplexing for a team that finished last...ARob is a solid WR but not the guy I am gonna make a sweetheart deal for...this is a case where you can see why this guy finished last.

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3 hours ago, menobrown said:

I hear this a lot, this 3 year window. My question is why the arbitrary amount of 3 years? I never hear a 2 or 4 year window, I truly never understood why the 3 year window was  so key for a lot of people.

 

Rookie deals are usually 4 years, unless a 1st NFL draft round prospect. Most coaching situations don’t last the entire timespan.
 

3 years seems to be hedge on contract length, coaching, no replacements on the roster, and seeing if the player is actually an NFL talent for FF purposes.

Most FF players think everyone is an NFL talent for FF before they play a down. They think the player will last for 10 years. And of course, their situation will never change. But next year, the team will possibly bring some one in to take their job.

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Couple trades in my main dynasty league from this week:

10 teams, ppr, superflex, full idp, 100 contract years per team (number in parenthesis is length of contract)

 

Team A Gave:
Singletary, Devin BUF RB (5); Year 2020 Draft Pick 3.08

Team B Gave:
Brown, Marquise BAL WR (5); Year 2020 Draft Pick 2.04

--------

Team C Gave:
Mattison, Alexander MIN RB (5)

Team D (Not the Cook owner) Gave:
Davis, Corey TEN WR (4)

------

Team E Gave:
Haskins, Dwayne WAS QB (5); Year 2020 Draft Pick 3.05

Team D Gave: 
Williams, Damien KCC RB (2); Year 2020 Draft Pick 4.01

------

Team A Gave:
Golladay, Kenny DET WR (3)

Team F Gave:
Year 2020 Draft Pick 1.09; Year 2020 Draft Pick 2.01

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18 minutes ago, Boston said:

This deal is so perplexing for a team that finished last...ARob is a solid WR but not the guy I am gonna make a sweetheart deal for...this is a case where you can see why this guy finished last.

Yeah, it was actually an orphan team and he took it over this yr but I agree imho his tm isn't really ready to compete this yr but judging by the move he thinks it can; maybe hes right but the odds are stacked against him. Fwiw, he made the original offer and we countered a couple of times.  

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4 hours ago, tangfoot said:

If you want to exempt QBs, I am fine with that philosophy.  But I begin every dynasty season by looking at my roster with a three year window in mind. 

That doesn't mean that I want to jettison every player on my roster within the next three years, it's just that it's not realistic to look at any NFL player and say "That guy is going to be a stud for the next 6-8 years."

The 3-year thing is rolling.

That’s fine and thats your approach, but then you’re likely to undervalue someone like CeeDee Lamb and overvalue Keenan Allen.    Similarly, I wouldn’t wager heavily on Barkley outproducing Henry over the next three years, but I would if the bet were over the next eight years.  You’re right, NFL lifespans are short.  But there are plenty of players who provide more than three years of usefulness, and when you end up with one of those the value is immense. Especially at RB, where an all purpose horse can outright win you the league.  I’m of the opinion that Barkley is one of those players, and that’s definitely based on the belief that he’s as good a bet as anyone to be elite for the next three years, as well as for plenty of years beyond that after he turns 26.  Sure, injuries can derail that, but I’ll roll the dice on that vs the same injury potential and bust factor for Akers, Reagor, and two unknown 1sts.  

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21 minutes ago, Spin said:

Couple trades in my main dynasty league from this week:

10 teams, ppr, superflex, full idp, 100 contract years per team (number in parenthesis is length of contract)

 

Team A Gave:
Singletary, Devin BUF RB (5); Year 2020 Draft Pick 3.08

Team B Gave:
Brown, Marquise BAL WR (5); Year 2020 Draft Pick 2.04

--------

Team C Gave:
Mattison, Alexander MIN RB (5)

Team D (Not the Cook owner) Gave:
Davis, Corey TEN WR (4)

------

Team E Gave:
Haskins, Dwayne WAS QB (5); Year 2020 Draft Pick 3.05

Team D Gave: 
Williams, Damien KCC RB (2); Year 2020 Draft Pick 4.01

------

Team A Gave:
Golladay, Kenny DET WR (3)

Team F Gave:
Year 2020 Draft Pick 1.09; Year 2020 Draft Pick 2.01

 

Hollywood side pretty easily

Mattison side by miles

Pretty even I would probably take Williams side

Golladay

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1 hour ago, tangfoot said:

Do you play dynasty? 

Going into each season I take a critical look at my roster and determine which players I want to own over the next 1-3 seasons.  This takes into account whether or not I feel like my team has a legitimate shot at the league championship.

4 years is an eternity in dynasty.  Just go look at the rankings from June of 2016 and you'll see that this is true.

2 years isn't enough time to adequately evaluate rookies and some other young players in developmental positions.

Yes I play dynasty and not sure what I asked that you felt the need to ask me that question.

I just don't understand the arbitrary nature of 3 years. As Riffraff said in his response below I would think 4 years is more fitting but as I detailed in my response below I think it's more if an individual player specific scenario. I don't buy into this 2 years is not enough  but 4 years is to many and 3 is just right mindset that seems to be so pervasive.

And again backtracking to your question about if I play dynasty. One of my first dynasty teams was in 2013 and I took Julio, Bell and AB in the startup. I got 7 years out of Julio and Bell(6 if we count the missed season) and then dealt them this off-season for high picks and I still have AB. I just finished off my 6th straight season of being one of top two teams in the league because of these 3 players being my core for so long and again I exited out of Bell and Julio with high first round picks. So my opinion is it's lot more nuanced then saying 4 years is an eternity, 2 year is not enough but 3 years is just right.

35 minutes ago, Riffraff said:

Rookie deals are usually 4 years, unless a 1st NFL draft round prospect.
 

 

4 years seems more apt but I would and do look at each player on an individual basis, there is no set year for anticipated expiration or decline in value that works for all players. Some things are impossible to predict but contract, age/contract of supporting cast, security of coaching staff are key items I review and there is not set timeframe IMO that works but it's more of an individual basis. For example I got a team with a bunch of old WR's, Julio, Hilton and AB. I view that team as having 2-3 years to locate replacement WR's and as such a chance in 2-3 years if I fail at that task I'm looking at a rebuild. Case by case for me.

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11 minutes ago, menobrown said:

One of my first dynasty teams was in 2013 and I took Julio, Bell and AB in the startup. I got 7 years out of Julio and Bell(6 if we count the missed season)

Getting 3-10 years out of a player is irrelevant.  To me the important thing is looking at any player with a 3 year lens, regardless of their age.

I drafted many older vets in startups in the last few years because I was confident that I would get 3+ years out of them, but it doesn't matter HOW MANY years beyond 3 I get, because every year begins a new 3-year evaluation period.

If I look at Barkley as a 3 year investment today, it's also possible (likely?) that he will still be considered as a 3-year player three years down the road, that doesn't change the fact that I still evaluate him through that time period.

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2 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Getting 3-10 years out of a player is irrelevant.  To me the important thing is looking at any player with a 3 year lens, regardless of their age.

I drafted many older vets in startups in the last few years because I was confident that I would get 3+ years out of them, but it doesn't matter HOW MANY years beyond 3 I get, because every year begins a new 3-year evaluation period.

If I look at Barkley as a 3 year investment today, it's also possible (likely?) that he will still be considered as a 3-year player three years down the road, that doesn't change the fact that I still evaluate him through that time period.

Yea, for sure not how I manage my teams but to each their own.

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31 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

That’s fine and thats your approach, but then you’re likely to undervalue someone like CeeDee Lamb and overvalue Keenan Allen.   

If I still owned Allen anywhere, I would be moving him for anything I can get. 

He has been dynasty kryptonite for the past several seasons.  I sold my last shares in 2019 and was relieved that I was able to get out from under him at all.

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3 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

If I still owned Allen anywhere, I would be moving him for anything I can get. 

He has been dynasty kryptonite for the past several seasons.  I sold my last shares in 2019 and was relieved that I was able to get out from under him at all.

But at age 28 he likely has three decent years left in him.  And Lamb will likely start out a bit slowly as one of three solid WRs in an offense heavily featuring Zeke, so their production over the next three years is likely to be similar. No?  Shouldn’t they be valued similarly as of today?  If not, why not?  If the answer is because you simply hate Allen, then insert Robert Woods run the same analysis.  I’m generally dumbfounded how someone can say they play dynasty and don’t look past three years.  I positively refuse to believe that’s actually the case.  Otherwise most would take Allen or Woods over Lamb and do cartwheels.  Yet nobody is doing that.  Why not?  

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6 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

But at age 28 he likely has three decent years left in him.  And Lamb will likely start out a bit slowly as one of three solid WRs in an offense heavily featuring Zeke, so their production over the next three years is likely to be similar. No?  Shouldn’t they be valued similarly as of today?  If not, why not?  If the answer is because you simply hate Allen, then insert Robert Woods run the same analysis.  I’m generally dumbfounded how someone can say they play dynasty and don’t look past three years.  I positively refuse to believe that’s actually the case.  Otherwise most would take Allen or Woods over Lamb and do cartwheels.  Yet nobody is doing that.  Why not?  

3 decent years as a WR2 at best?  That's essentially worthless in dynasty and untradeable. 

I'm not looking at any two players and comparing them to their redraft point totals over the next three years, I'm also taking into account team situation, likely trade value and whether that value will increase or decrease over the period of time I'm consdering owning them.

Allen is a depreciating asset, regardless of what he scores over the next three seasons.  I would also argue that his team situation and QB are suboptimal and therefore it's damn likely that Lamb will outscore him as soon as 2021.   And even if he doesn't, Lamb's perceived value will be higher. 

I run my dynasty teams by buying low and selling high if I'm not in immediate contention.  The window for that is long past with Allen, but I would consider trading for him with a future 2nd round pick + player if I determined he could help me now.

You could view Robert Woods in a similar way, even though I believe that he will have a superior season to Allen in 2020. 

And FWIW, Lamb currently has an ADP above both Allen and Woods, meaning that dynasty players in general feel like he's the better 3-year investment.

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7 hours ago, clvrpns said:

Good morning mates:

 

12-team, non-SF dyn, 0.5 PPR, 30-roster spot, start QRRWWTFFD

Team A: DJ Moore

Team B: D Parker + 2021 1st rounder

 

Separately,  I have to agree with keeping Barkley as above, especially in the lower starting requirement set-up for all the reasons stated. That being said, you need to gamble to make those big moves, and who knows what Akers and those other 2 firsts turn into. But, imo, history isn't on their side, and my concern would be Barkley keeps those picks from being very high but you never know.

Thank you mates.

I like Moore by a lot in that scenario.

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Don't have enough tools to adequately rate this, so thought I'd ask you guys.

12 team ppr, QRRWWTFFDK

Team A: Aaron Rodgers and Preston Williams

Team B: Christian Kirk and Chris Herndon

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6 minutes ago, facook said:

Don't have enough tools to adequately rate this, so thought I'd ask you guys.

12 team ppr, QRRWWTFFDK

Team A: Aaron Rodgers and Preston Williams

Team B: Christian Kirk and Chris Herndon

Rodgers and Williams by a country mile.  I'm way down on Christian Kirk's value since they traded for Nuk.

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15 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

3 decent years as a WR2 at best?  That's essentially worthless in dynasty and untradeable. 

If you're not looking beyond three years, then three years as a WR2 is the opposite of worthless.

15 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I'm not looking at any two players and comparing them to their redraft point totals over the next three years, I'm also taking into account team situation, likely trade value and whether that value will increase or decrease over the period of time I'm consdering owning them.

But by stating that you're taking into account their likely trade value increasing/decreasing over that time frame, you're absolutely valuing players beyond three years. 

15 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Allen is a depreciating asset, regardless of what he scores over the next three seasons.  I would also argue that his team situation and QB are suboptimal and therefore it's damn likely that Lamb will outscore him as soon as 2021.   And even if he doesn't, Lamb's perceived value will be higher. 

Allen is absolutely a depreciating asset, but not necessarily if you're only looking at his value over the next three years. He's likely to be pretty solid for the next three years. 

Of course Lamb's perceived value will be higher.  That's because he has a potential 10+ year career ahead of him, and it's 100% certain that Keenan Allen does not. 

15 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

And FWIW, Lamb currently has an ADP above both Allen and Woods, meaning that dynasty players in general feel like he's the better 3-year investment.

And of course Lamb has an ADP above Allen and Woods.  That's not because owners are only viewing these players in a three year window.  If they were, they'd heavily lean towards the guy(s) who are likely to score more points over the next three years.  Lamb's ADP is higher SOLELY because his outlook and ability to potentially help you win beyond the next three years (and be a non-depreciating asset) is light years better than Allen and Woods.  And sure, he has the potential to outscore them as soon as this year. 

It seems that you're more or less admitting you absolutely do look beyond three years, otherwise you wouldn't take into account much whether a player's trade value is likely to increase/decrease during that timeframe.  By taking that into account, you're absolutely looking beyond three years.  That's what missing from the "three year window" vantage point.  But then it's really not a three year window.  It feels like that's the disconnect. 

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1 minute ago, SayWhat? said:

 

If you're not looking beyond three years, then three years as a WR2 is the opposite of worthless.

But by stating that you're taking into account their likely trade value increasing/decreasing over that time frame, you're absolutely valuing players beyond three years. 

Allen is absolutely a depreciating asset, but not necessarily if you're only looking at his value over the next three years. He's likely to be pretty solid for the next three years. 

Of course Lamb's perceived value will be higher.  That's because he has a potential 10+ year career ahead of him, and it's 100% certain that Keenan Allen does not. 

And of course Lamb has an ADP above Allen and Woods.  That's not because owners are only viewing these players in a three year window.  If they were, they'd heavily lean towards the guy(s) who are likely to score more points over the next three years.  Lamb's ADP is higher SOLELY because his outlook and ability to potentially help you win beyond the next three years (and be a non-depreciating asset) is light years better than Allen and Woods.  And sure, he has the potential to outscore them as soon as this year. 

It seems that you're more or less admitting you absolutely do look beyond three years, otherwise you wouldn't take into account much whether a player's trade value is likely to increase/decrease during that timeframe.  By taking that into account, you're absolutely looking beyond three years.  That's what missing from the "three year window" vantage point.  But then it's really not a three year window.  It feels like that's the disconnect. 

 

Thank you for mansplaining my dynasty strategy.  I'm done with you and this entire conversation.

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1 minute ago, tangfoot said:

 

Thank you for mansplaining my dynasty strategy.  I'm done with you and this entire conversation.

Mansplaining?  Sensitive much?  Best of luck in your dynasty conquests over the next three years, kind sir.

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57 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

 

If you're not looking beyond three years, then three years as a WR2 is the opposite of worthless.

But by stating that you're taking into account their likely trade value increasing/decreasing over that time frame, you're absolutely valuing players beyond three years. 

Allen is absolutely a depreciating asset, but not necessarily if you're only looking at his value over the next three years. He's likely to be pretty solid for the next three years. 

Of course Lamb's perceived value will be higher.  That's because he has a potential 10+ year career ahead of him, and it's 100% certain that Keenan Allen does not. 

And of course Lamb has an ADP above Allen and Woods.  That's not because owners are only viewing these players in a three year window.  If they were, they'd heavily lean towards the guy(s) who are likely to score more points over the next three years.  Lamb's ADP is higher SOLELY because his outlook and ability to potentially help you win beyond the next three years (and be a non-depreciating asset) is light years better than Allen and Woods.  And sure, he has the potential to outscore them as soon as this year. 

It seems that you're more or less admitting you absolutely do look beyond three years, otherwise you wouldn't take into account much whether a player's trade value is likely to increase/decrease during that timeframe.  By taking that into account, you're absolutely looking beyond three years.  That's what missing from the "three year window" vantage point.  But then it's really not a three year window.  It feels like that's the disconnect. 

I think what @tangfoot is saying is that things change VERY fast in the NFL. You just never know. Heck, just a few years ago the top 3 RB's (or at least 3 of the top 5) were David Johnson, Leveon Bell, and Todd Gurley. Now they can all be had for a song. It's very hard to look out at the landscape and say someone will be stud for 8 years. It just doesn't happen that often.

Now sure, youth is better than age because there's a CHANCE a young guy stays studly for a long time (Zeke seems to be on that track), but it is pretty rare, so taking a shorter time outlook is generally more helpful. 

For the most part, I agree with @tangfoot that a three year sliding window is a good way to manage a dynasty team. It's not hard and fast - of course there are guys you pick and hold and hope they grow into their role (Davante Adams for example). But overall, 3 years is about as far out as I project.

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7 hours ago, tangfoot said:

If you want to exempt QBs, I am fine with that philosophy.  But I begin every dynasty season by looking at my roster with a three year window in mind. 

That doesn't mean that I want to jettison every player on my roster within the next three years, it's just that it's not realistic to look at any NFL player and say "That guy is going to be a stud for the next 6-8 years."

The 3-year thing is rolling.

I would say if your strategy is working and you're winning, then keep doing it! Isn't winning what it's all about? I'm not sure that there is only one way to do it. My strategy is way different but it works, so I'll keep rolling as well!

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2 hours ago, facook said:

Don't have enough tools to adequately rate this, so thought I'd ask you guys.

12 team ppr, QRRWWTFFDK

Team A: Aaron Rodgers and Preston Williams

Team B: Christian Kirk and Chris Herndon

Kirk side by quite a bit. I have him well ahead of Williams and in a start 1qb league Rodgers wasn't even a starter last year. His value is on name only. 

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Just now, msudaisy26 said:

Kirk side by quite a bit. I have him well ahead of Williams and in a start 1qb league Rodgers wasn't even a starter last year. His value is on name only. 

How about if Team B's qbs are Dalton and Cam?  :)  (I know, he'll draft a qb at 2.02, but still...)

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33 minutes ago, facook said:

How about if Team B's qbs are Dalton and Cam?  :)  (I know, he'll draft a qb at 2.02, but still...)

Value is still value. In a 1 qb league Rodgers doesn't have a lot to me. 

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, msudaisy26 said:

Value is still value. In a 1 qb league Rodgers doesn't have a lot to me. 

He was my 3rd pick in the startup of this dynasty 12ish years ago.  I need to just hold him and let him backup Lamar till he decides to hang 'em up.  :) (I also still have the 1.1 from that draft - Adrian Peterson.  I am terrible at this.)

Edited by facook

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Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, facook said:

He was my 3rd pick in the startup of this dynasty 12ish years ago.  I need to just hold him and let him backup Lamar till he decides to hang 'em up.  :) (I also still have the 1.1 from that draft - Adrian Peterson.  I am terrible at this.)

Bravo, not many people make it this far into fantasy being this sensitive. It is also equally impressive that you never and I mean never make a mistake.

Edited by msudaisy26
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1 hour ago, msudaisy26 said:

Bravo, not many people make it this far into fantasy being this sensitive. It is also equally impressive that you never and I mean never make a mistake.

:lmao:  SOOOO not true.  Guys I've cut too early:

Devante, Jordy, Thielen, Guice, Edelman, etc etc etc

Last year I picked up Preston Williams instead of  McLauren.  Like, I was hovering over each guy.  Took Preston. EFF.

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6 hours ago, facook said:

Don't have enough tools to adequately rate this, so thought I'd ask you guys.

12 team ppr, QRRWWTFFDK

Team A: Aaron Rodgers and Preston Williams

Team B: Christian Kirk and Chris Herndon

The best player in this deal is Preston Williams. I’ll take that side by a lot

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Long-time lurker, first time commenter. 

Lots of vets makin' some suspect trades. I don't know about this, Jimmy...

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21 hours ago, menobrown said:

I hear this a lot, this 3 year window. My question is why the arbitrary amount of 3 years? I never hear a 2 or 4 year window, I truly never understood why the 3 year window was  so key for a lot of people.

 

I'll add to the other couple of responses I saw.

"This" year is pretty well too late by June, you're pot committed.  Next year is 2 years and and both very predictable overall for veteran/established players that you can feel pretty comfortable plus well withing most rebuild windows so you can go get aging vets from rebuilders cheap - Kelce, AJ Green, Rivers can all be had for a lot less than a couple years ago.  Brees/Ben/Brady probably play another year but you're definitely deep into a succession plan.  Julio and AJ Green may start slides, Hopkins will still be going strong, AB will still be bat#### crazy, and Marvin Jones should still be a solid plugin WR.  Goedert should finally be out from under Ertz one way or another. 

That 3rd year out is when you start getting uncomfortable.  Now if Brees is gone and Jameis didn't stick around who's throwing to Michael Thomas?  EZE and Kamara are 28 to start the season.  JJSS is signing somewhere for Tyrell Williams money (and role).  Even Russell Wilson is 34 - here's our first mobile/next gen QB showing age, what's that long term prognosis looking like?  Where will Matt Ryan be?  The other big factor is how fast RB's fall off.  Looking more than three years out on an RB just isn't safe at all.  Look where people were on Fournette three years ago.  David Johnson was in the conversation for 1.01.  Gurley was untouchable.  Jordan Howard was a 22 year old young bull coming off a top 10 season and Spencer Ware had a stranglehold on the KCC backfield!  (I hope all those guys mocking me for caution on him like the taste of cooked crow.)

3 years is actually a short window in FF.  It's real easy to get unlucky one year and miss the playoffs despite being 9-4 or being 91% in all-play but running into those one week wonders in the playoffs.   Now suddenly you're three years later, you have $75 in your pocket from a single third place finish, and your RB are Le'Veon Bell, DeVonta Freeman, and Mark Ingram (you've long since moved on from Jay Ajayi and Lamar Miller) and you don't have a plan.

And I'll re-state a huge piece - rookies.  Not only do you kind of have to give them minimum 2 years but likely three to know what you have, but they significantly alter your long-term plans when they hit.  You might think you're all set for 10 years with Mahomes and DJ Moore but what if Eason becomes the next Rivers?  Given that's a nice problem to have, but had you given 3 1sts for Mahomes to wrap the position up for the next 10 years you might have a significant overinvestment on your hands.  Now if your RB's Kareem Hunt you you're really in trouble cause you aren't getting Barkley for Mahomes.

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Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, NE_REVIVAL said:

Surprised, i thought every1 would hate it, maybe its my man love for arob. 

 

Wow the other team got smoked...why would a last place team make this trade?

Never been a huge fan of Robinson.

Edited by JoeSteeler
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59 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

I'll add to the other couple of responses I saw.

"This" year is pretty well too late by June, you're pot committed.  Next year is 2 years and and both very predictable overall for veteran/established players that you can feel pretty comfortable plus well withing most rebuild windows so you can go get aging vets from rebuilders cheap - Kelce, AJ Green, Rivers can all be had for a lot less than a couple years ago.  Brees/Ben/Brady probably play another year but you're definitely deep into a succession plan.  Julio and AJ Green may start slides, Hopkins will still be going strong, AB will still be bat#### crazy, and Marvin Jones should still be a solid plugin WR.  Goedert should finally be out from under Ertz one way or another. 

That 3rd year out is when you start getting uncomfortable.  Now if Brees is gone and Jameis didn't stick around who's throwing to Michael Thomas?  EZE and Kamara are 28 to start the season.  JJSS is signing somewhere for Tyrell Williams money (and role).  Even Russell Wilson is 34 - here's our first mobile/next gen QB showing age, what's that long term prognosis looking like?  Where will Matt Ryan be?  The other big factor is how fast RB's fall off.  Looking more than three years out on an RB just isn't safe at all.  Look where people were on Fournette three years ago.  David Johnson was in the conversation for 1.01.  Gurley was untouchable.  Jordan Howard was a 22 year old young bull coming off a top 10 season and Spencer Ware had a stranglehold on the KCC backfield!  (I hope all those guys mocking me for caution on him like the taste of cooked crow.)

3 years is actually a short window in FF.  It's real easy to get unlucky one year and miss the playoffs despite being 9-4 or being 91% in all-play but running into those one week wonders in the playoffs.   Now suddenly you're three years later, you have $75 in your pocket from a single third place finish, and your RB are Le'Veon Bell, DeVonta Freeman, and Mark Ingram (you've long since moved on from Jay Ajayi and Lamar Miller) and you don't have a plan.

And I'll re-state a huge piece - rookies.  Not only do you kind of have to give them minimum 2 years but likely three to know what you have, but they significantly alter your long-term plans when they hit.  You might think you're all set for 10 years with Mahomes and DJ Moore but what if Eason becomes the next Rivers?  Given that's a nice problem to have, but had you given 3 1sts for Mahomes to wrap the position up for the next 10 years you might have a significant overinvestment on your hands.  Now if your RB's Kareem Hunt you you're really in trouble cause you aren't getting Barkley for Mahomes.

Appreciate the response.

I actually think 3 years is to long and since I play mainly in FFPC I don't have 2 years even to asses most rookies. If I spend a first round pick on your that normally buys you that second year, other than that all bets are off.

I still view this 3 year outlook as arbitrary if not to long.

This is much more of a year to year sport with regards to assessing team. Granted you got some teams so good at times you know it would take crazy chain of events impacting multiple players to make the team bad but for the most part I'm analyzing the respective team itself year to year, if not sooner.

Gurley who you referenced would be an example. When his injury hit him late in the 2018 season I owned him just under half my teams. Watching him in the playoffs and reading the reports I felt pretty strongly that the guy who was just a 26 PPG RB for me the last two years was no more, I went from a difference maker to a solid RB2 just like that. That kind of thing is massively impactful for teams and I adjusted.

With regards to players I look at them case by case. Can't tell the future but that's part of what dynasty is about, trying to get a handle on it. But for sure I have had players I viewed as 3+ years of value to me that went well and above that.

So for me I view teams closer to year to year, players I tend to view in a different lense as I will try and predict the range of their future outcome based on age, contract, age/contract of supporting cast and coaching. Win some, lose some.

But what I don't do is just view everything out of some 3 year lense, it's a lot more nuanced.

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3 hours ago, menobrown said:

Appreciate the response.

I actually think 3 years is to long and since I play mainly in FFPC I don't have 2 years even to asses most rookies. If I spend a first round pick on your that normally buys you that second year, other than that all bets are off.

I still view this 3 year outlook as arbitrary if not to long.

This is much more of a year to year sport with regards to assessing team. Granted you got some teams so good at times you know it would take crazy chain of events impacting multiple players to make the team bad but for the most part I'm analyzing the respective team itself year to year, if not sooner.

Gurley who you referenced would be an example. When his injury hit him late in the 2018 season I owned him just under half my teams. Watching him in the playoffs and reading the reports I felt pretty strongly that the guy who was just a 26 PPG RB for me the last two years was no more, I went from a difference maker to a solid RB2 just like that. That kind of thing is massively impactful for teams and I adjusted.

With regards to players I look at them case by case. Can't tell the future but that's part of what dynasty is about, trying to get a handle on it. But for sure I have had players I viewed as 3+ years of value to me that went well and above that.

So for me I view teams closer to year to year, players I tend to view in a different lense as I will try and predict the range of their future outcome based on age, contract, age/contract of supporting cast and coaching. Win some, lose some.

But what I don't do is just view everything out of some 3 year lense, it's a lot more nuanced.

I misinterpreted why you were asking, I thought it was more a conceptual "why X years" than "why only 3 as opposed to full-on" question.  I tend to agree with you that it's a lot more nuanced that just looking at a 3 year window and I also lean much more to the shorter timeframes.  I am highly active and will have plenty of time later to deal with later problems.  If I have managed my team well I'll also have more equity available to solve them with.

And note that no one is saying they only care about points scored for the next three years.  Someone else above mistakenly said this would lead to undervaluing young guys and overvaluing vets like Keenan Allen.  Not true at all.  That person is assuming we're only looking at current points scored for the 3 year window.  I decouple points today from future value.  And that's the art of dynasty - how can I give myself the best change to win now while maximizing future outlook?  If I can't get Keenan Allen for the right price I will look elsewhere, I won't overpay for him just to get the points in my lineup.  I'll ask the Marvin Jones owner or Breshaud Perriman owner or the Robert Woods owner or I'll just keep asking around until I find a different player that's available at a price I'm comfortable with.

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On 6/5/2020 at 10:34 AM, Jonesin For Some Football said:

Or a reach around.  That is a horrible trade.  MT is too much for Godwin but close enough but this one isn't even close.

I thought of that but wanted to keep it a G rating.

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I took over an orphan that was in bad shape but had a handful of assets.  Here are the two big trades I have made.  12 team ppr 1qb

OBJ for Clavin Ridley and 1.10 this year

Fournette for DJ Chark

I am at least two years away and this team only had a 4th round pick going into this years rookie draft..  Did a few smaller trades to get picks, TY Hilton for 2.01 and Mostert for 2.08 and a 2021 3rd.  Jordan Howard for 3.02.  

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28 minutes ago, frae said:

I took over an orphan that was in bad shape but had a handful of assets.  Here are the two big trades I have made.  12 team ppr 1qb

OBJ for Clavin Ridley and 1.10 this year

Fournette for DJ Chark

I am at least two years away and this team only had a 4th round pick going into this years rookie draft..  Did a few smaller trades to get picks, TY Hilton for 2.01 and Mostert for 2.08 and a 2021 3rd.  Jordan Howard for 3.02.  

Love them both for a rebuilder. Nice job.

 

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35 minutes ago, frae said:

I took over an orphan that was in bad shape but had a handful of assets.  Here are the two big trades I have made.  12 team ppr 1qb

OBJ for Clavin Ridley and 1.10 this year

Fournette for DJ Chark

I am at least two years away and this team only had a 4th round pick going into this years rookie draft..  Did a few smaller trades to get picks, TY Hilton for 2.01 and Mostert for 2.08 and a 2021 3rd.  Jordan Howard for 3.02.  

Can you post your roster and picks. It seems like the guy you took over for left you with a real headache. Only a 4th this year? Must be something on the team?

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6 minutes ago, Blackbear said:

Can you post your roster and picks. It seems like the guy you took over for left you with a real headache. Only a 4th this year? Must be something on the team?

Sure, it was not good enough to win now and my only pick in 2020 was the 4th round pick I had.  Here is the roster I started with before trades...

QB - Flaco Winston Darnold. 

RB - G Bernard, M Gordon, A Peterson, Fournette, Jordan Wilkins, Darrell Williams, TJ Yeldon, Damien harris, Mostert J Howard

WR Robby Anderson, OBJ, TY Hilton, AJ Green, Zay Jones, E Sanders, K Stills, A Tate

TE J Doyle, T Burton, T Eifert

2020 pick of 4.02

I have no clue what he got for his 1st, 2nd and 3rd but he finished 11th last year and that 1.02 pick would have been really helpful.  I forget I had to include D Harris with Hilton to get 2.01.

So I have so far shipped out Fournette, OBJ, Hilton, Mostert, Hilton, Howard and Harris and got back Ridley, Chark, 1.10, 2.01, 2.08, 3.02 and I do have the 4.02 I started with.

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7 minutes ago, frae said:

Sure, it was not good enough to win now and my only pick in 2020 was the 4th round pick I had.  Here is the roster I started with before trades...

QB - Flaco Winston Darnold. 

RB - G Bernard, M Gordon, A Peterson, Fournette, Jordan Wilkins, Darrell Williams, TJ Yeldon, Damien harris, Mostert J Howard

WR Robby Anderson, OBJ, TY Hilton, AJ Green, Zay Jones, E Sanders, K Stills, A Tate

TE J Doyle, T Burton, T Eifert

2020 pick of 4.02

I have no clue what he got for his 1st, 2nd and 3rd but he finished 11th last year and that 1.02 pick would have been really helpful.  I forget I had to include D Harris with Hilton to get 2.01.

So I have so far shipped out Fournette, OBJ, Hilton, Mostert, Hilton, Howard and Harris and got back Ridley, Chark, 1.10, 2.01, 2.08, 3.02 and I do have the 4.02 I started with.

You are doing great with what you were given. Post your line up now and asterisk your projected starters... I hope only one QB league. 

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2 minutes ago, Blackbear said:

You are doing great with what you were given. Post your line up now and asterisk your projected starters... I hope only one QB league. 

QB Darnold * Winston Flaco 

RB Gordon*(Still trying to trade him)  Bernard*  AP  Jordan Wilkins Darrell Williams  TJ Yeldon

WR - Ridley * Chark* AJ Green* (still trying to trade him) Emmanuel Sanders* (still trying to trade him for anything) Kenny Stills Auden Tate Robby Anderson

TE Jack Doyle* T Burton  Eifert

DEF Las Vegas (definitely dropping them KC and Min are on waivers)

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4 minutes ago, frae said:

QB Darnold * Winston Flaco 

RB Gordon*(Still trying to trade him)  Bernard*  AP  Jordan Wilkins Darrell Williams  TJ Yeldon

WR - Ridley * Chark* AJ Green* (still trying to trade him) Emmanuel Sanders* (still trying to trade him for anything) Kenny Stills Auden Tate Robby Anderson

TE Jack Doyle* T Burton  Eifert

DEF Las Vegas (definitely dropping them KC and Min are on waivers)

What are you waiting for on Waivers for defense? Minnesota is a much better option than LVR!

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4 minutes ago, robb said:

What are you waiting for on Waivers for defense? Minnesota is a much better option than LVR!

Free Agent adds are locked until we do the rookie draft, there is currently one open team.  So yes when that is over I will be bidding on a defense.

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6 minutes ago, Blackbear said:

What QBs are on waivers? Probably junk? 

The most interesting guys?  Nick Foles, Brissett, and I guess Taysom Hill?  I'll definitely try to add one if I don't add a qb in the rookie draft.  Burrows and Tua could be options for me at 2.01 or 2.08.  Could look at Herbert at 3.02 maybe.  Not sure yet it will depend what RB/WR drop.

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1 minute ago, frae said:

The most interesting guys?  Nick Foles, Brissett, and I guess Taysom Hill?  I'll definitely try to add one if I don't add a qb in the rookie draft.  Burrows and Tua could be options for me at 2.01 or 2.08.  Could look at Herbert at 3.02 maybe.  Not sure yet it will depend what RB/WR drop.

Get Foles and get rid of Flacco. Flacco went flaccid. 
 

Probably in one QB league Burrows and Tua will be there at 1.10. If both there then gamble and take something else and snag one at 2.1

How many teams in the league?

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1 minute ago, Blackbear said:

Get Foles and get rid of Flacco. Flacco went flaccid. 
 

Probably in one QB league Burrows and Tua will be there at 1.10. If both there then gamble and take something else and snag one at 2.1

How many teams in the league?

12 teams in the league, and yes I agree 1.10 will be a WR probably.  If things go by ADP it could be Jefferson or Reagor.  K Vaughn could be the choice if Jefferson and Reagor go or I take Ruggs.  I won't use 1.10 on Burrows in one QB. 


Yeah I'll be holding Winston for this year and Flacco will get the axe whether its for a rookie or for Foles.

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13 minutes ago, frae said:

12 teams in the league, and yes I agree 1.10 will be a WR probably.  If things go by ADP it could be Jefferson or Reagor.  K Vaughn could be the choice if Jefferson and Reagor go or I take Ruggs.  I won't use 1.10 on Burrows in one QB. 


Yeah I'll be holding Winston for this year and Flacco will get the axe whether its for a rookie or for Foles.

Sorry, I can’t remember if you said PPR. I assume so since you asterisk Bernard. 

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