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****OFFICIAL 2020 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****

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On 1/7/2017 at 0:59 PM, bostonfred said:

Sure. It's just an uphill battle. Just like it was for those guys. When cruz blew up, it aligned with nicks falling off. When obj blew up, it aligned with cruz getting hurt.  They each played well and had a qb who had made elite wr1s before. Obj was drafted in the top ten picks. Hill and cruz weren't. 

Maybe maclin never returns to form and hill is the guy. Maybe hill is as good or better than maclin. Maybe he keeps breaking big plays and defenses can't or choose not to take him out of the game.  Things could work out for him. I just would price him as "could work out" instead of "will". 

Not to be annoying, but obj was pick 12. I know because my team took Ebron at 10.......but who knew that we would lose suh and megatron. 

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10 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Evans in a landslide

The trade is much closer when you look at it as Dalvin Cook as opposed to simply a draft pick.  Depending on RB depth, I could see this trade being made. 

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37 minutes ago, TheBottomLine said:

The trade is much closer when you look at it as Dalvin Cook as opposed to simply a draft pick.  Depending on RB depth, I could see this trade being made. 

As we get closer to the draft, this trade might not even be made from the Thomas 1.02 side. Its close value.

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1 hour ago, TheBottomLine said:

The trade is much closer when you look at it as Dalvin Cook as opposed to simply a draft pick.  Depending on RB depth, I could see this trade being made. 

I don't agree.  It shouldn't matter if you look at it as a draft pick or a certain player.  They are technically the same value.  Yeah Cook is a good prospect but he's still that, a prospect.  I don't view him or Fournette on the level that Zeke or Gurley were at coming out to provide recent examples.  Evans is a top5 dynasty asset whose the undisputed #1 target on his team, and what was he top3 in targets the past 2 years?  Jameis loves looking his way and he comes down with a lot of those.  If you changed that trade from Evans to say OBJ, you'd be saying landslide too.  

Since 2011 heres the #2 pick in rookie drafts from 2 of my leagues, Treadwell (yet to be seen what he is), Melvin Gordon, Mike Evans, Montee Ball, Andrew Luck, Daniel Thomas (call it 50% success rate) and the other league Treadwell, Amari Cooper, Carlos Hyde, Montee Ball (call it 50% success rate), since we don't what Treadwell is yet.  Although I have my doubts about Treadwell cause WR's taken that high should produce for their teams in their rookie years.  Evans is one of the best so why risk that for a rookie WR who had a good year?  Plus, a lot is about to change in New Orleans, likely new coach, Brees is almost done and Thomas was a decent but not super star prospect.  I don't know, guess I'm lower on Thomas and higher on Evans than most. 

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37 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

I don't agree.  It shouldn't matter if you look at it as a draft pick or a certain player.  They are technically the same value.  Yeah Cook is a good prospect but he's still that, a prospect.  I don't view him or Fournette on the level that Zeke or Gurley were at coming out to provide recent examples.  Evans is a top5 dynasty asset whose the undisputed #1 target on his team, and what was he top3 in targets the past 2 years?  Jameis loves looking his way and he comes down with a lot of those.  If you changed that trade from Evans to say OBJ, you'd be saying landslide too.  

Since 2011 heres the #2 pick in rookie drafts from 2 of my leagues, Treadwell (yet to be seen what he is), Melvin Gordon, Mike Evans, Montee Ball, Andrew Luck, Daniel Thomas (call it 50% success rate) and the other league Treadwell, Amari Cooper, Carlos Hyde, Montee Ball (call it 50% success rate), since we don't what Treadwell is yet.  Although I have my doubts about Treadwell cause WR's taken that high should produce for their teams in their rookie years.  Evans is one of the best so why risk that for a rookie WR who had a good year?  Plus, a lot is about to change in New Orleans, likely new coach, Brees is almost done and Thomas was a decent but not super star prospect.  I don't know, guess I'm lower on Thomas and higher on Evans than most. 

Every league has morons in it that make crazy draft picks.  In the year your league took Daniel Thomas 1.02, Julio Jones went 1.02 in my league and it was him or AJ Green in 99% of leagues.   

Actually, it does matter if you look at it as a player over a pick, because some years the 1.02 is more valuable than others.  Last year it wasn't overly more valuable than 1.08, but in this upcoming draft it appears like it could be quite valuable.  Who knows for sure, but saying it doesn't matter how you look at the pick is crazy.  The 1.01 last year was immensely more valuable than in most other years and you can't look at it like it is simply 1.01.  If Cook/Fournette aren't very appealing to you, I'm not going to argue that.  I see arguments both ways but I don't think it is a landslide to trade Evans for Cook/Fournette and Michael Thomas.  I prefer Evans as well, though.

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43 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

I don't agree.  It shouldn't matter if you look at it as a draft pick or a certain player.  They are technically the same value. 

I don't agree that 1.2 and 1.8 is techincally the same value  not am I going down that rabbit hole discussion. But if we want to talk about players who are technically the same value I'd mention that Michael Thomas only scored about 1 point less per game than Evans and did so on about 80% of the targets .

 

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

I don't agree that 1.2 and 1.8 is techincally the same value  not am I going down that rabbit hole discussion. But if we want to talk about players who are technically the same value I'd mention that Michael Thomas only scored about 1 point less per game than Evans and did so on about 80% of the targets .

 

From a highly efficient QB who is not going to be around much longer in a heavily pass first offense that is unlikely to be around much longer as well.

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

I don't agree that 1.2 and 1.8 is techincally the same value  not am I going down that rabbit hole discussion. But if we want to talk about players who are technically the same value I'd mention that Michael Thomas only scored about 1 point less per game than Evans and did so on about 80% of the targets .

 

That wasn't what he was saying. He was responding to this: "The trade is much closer when you look at it as Dalvin Cook as opposed to simply a draft pick". So he was saying Cook and the 1.02 should be viewed the same.

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15 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

From a highly efficient QB who is not going to be around much longer in a heavily pass first offense that is unlikely to be around much longer as well.

Sure that is part of the price but he's a much more efficient player than Evans and when Tampa starts getting other weapons around Evans and more consistent running game I think you see a sizeable drop in target share. Evans is at 1.74 fantasy points per target, Thomas 2.14. We won't know what post-Brees or post-Payton life is like for another year or so likely but he'll still be playing in a dome and he's got such a large gap in efficiency on Evans that even with expected regression from another QB he still could be easily be better on a per target basis and I think those targets start to even out between the two as one potential  positive of no Brees and no Payton is chance of a offense that features him more, as opposed to spreading it out.

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14 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

That wasn't what he was saying. He was responding to this: "The trade is much closer when you look at it as Dalvin Cook as opposed to simply a draft pick". So he was saying Cook and the 1.02 should be viewed the same.

Seemed to me he was referencing the failed success rate of pick 1.2 to indicate that a prospect is a gamble and 1.2 just as much of a gamble as 1.8.

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3 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Seemed to me he was referencing the failed success rate of pick 1.2 to indicate that a prospect is a gamble and 1.2 just as much of a gamble as 1.8.

Not that I want to clutter up this thread (sorry) but look at the post he quoted and his response. It's pretty clear.

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Not that I want to clutter up this thread (sorry) but look at the post he quoted and his response. It's pretty clear.

good idea and I did before I responded so I guess not so clear from my POV.

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43 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

From a highly efficient QB who is not going to be around much longer in a heavily pass first offense that is unlikely to be around much longer as well.

That isn't a good way to look at trades in dynasty. We have no idea how long Brees will play and if he will continue at a high level. Thomas might leave in a few years as a free agent and go some where great or bad. Thomas might stay and the Saints might find their next quarterback much like the Chargers did with Rivers.

On the other side of it. Winston might regress, he looked good earlier this year, but seemed to fade near the end of the year. I highly doubt the Bucs think their skill positions are set and they try to upgrade at receiver and running back and that can cut into Evans targets. Or maybe they don't bring in anyone good and Winston continues to lock into Evans and he leads the world in targets for the next few years.

That being said I think I would take Evans side, but it is close.

Edited by msudaisy26

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He was saying that there is a difference between looking at the player and the pick because the value of the 1.02 pick can vary wildly depending on the player.  He was saying last year 1.02 was weak and not much better an actual player than you could get at 1.08.  This year 1.02 is strong (Cook).

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13 minutes ago, msudaisy26 said:

That isn't a good way to look at trades in dynasty. We have no idea how long Brees will play and if he will continue at a high level. Thomas might leave in a few years as a free agent and go some where great or bad. Thomas might stay and the Saints might just find the next quarterback much like the Chargers did with Rivers.

On the other side of it Winston might regress, he looked good earlier this year, but seemed to fade near the end of the year. I highly doubt the Bucs think their skill positioned are set and they try to upgrade at receiver and running back and that can cut into Evans targets. Or maybe they don't bring in anyone good and Winston continues to lock into Evans and he leads the world in targets for the next few years.

That being said I think I would take Evans side, but it is close.

Well yeah, a lot of things MIGHT happen, but a lot of fantasy football is about odds.  Paul Perkins might outscore David Johnson next year, but the odds are that he won't.

The odds are that Jameis WInston won't forget how to throw a football and start throwing for 2,000 yards per season.  It's possible, and it's happened before, but most of the time a guy with two years as good as his ends up being pretty consistently good.  There are exceptions, but they are the exception, not the rule.

Likewise, it's possible that the Saints replace Drew Brees with someone just as good or even better, but the odds are against it.  It's possible that Brees and Payton both re-sign with the Saints and Brees remains a stud until he turns 43.  But it's unlikely.

It's not just about the future either.  We've pretty well settled on Evans being an elite talent.  He put up a great rookie season as well and he did it with a lot less than Drew Brees (Josh McCown + Mike Glennon combo).  The jury is still out on Thomas.  He may just be a good talent in a great situation.  A great situation that has pretty good odds of becoming a really bad situation soon.  There's not exactly a precedent for WRs leaving Brees and the Saints and performing as well with another QB.  In fact, I can't think of anyone, not that there are many options to choose from.

Maybe Thomas is uber talented.  Maybe he's as good as Evans.  Maybe even better.  But it's about odds.  We can be pretty sure that Evans is an elite NFL talent and we can be pretty sure that Evans is in a pretty stable situation going forward.  Anything can happen but the outlook is good on both of those.  It it is significantly more unknown for Thomas.

There isn't much of a history of guys having 3 elite WR seasons to start their career and then disappearing, especially not when paired with a young talented QB as well.  There is a long history of guys having one elite WR season and then disappearing, especially when not paired with a stable long-term QB.  Odds-wise, there is a lot more risk there.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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Non PPR Dynasty - 2 trades

Trade 1

Team A: Sends Blake Bortles/Tony Romo/CJ Prosise/6ht round rookie pick (6.2)

Team B: Sends Aaron Rodgers/Duke Johnson

Trade 2

Team A: Sends 2017 2.01 rookie pick.

Team B: Sends Laquon Treadwell

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33 minutes ago, Tybeeman said:

Non PPR Dynasty - 2 trades

Trade 1

Team A: Sends Blake Bortles/Tony Romo/CJ Prosise/6ht round rookie pick (6.2)

Team B: Sends Aaron Rodgers/Duke Johnson

 

Don't understand that trade at all.  Trash (Bortles/Romo/worthless rookie pick) and a crapshoot RB for one of the best dynasty FF QB's.  Very weird trade.

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39 minutes ago, Tybeeman said:

 

Trade 2

Team A: Sends 2017 2.01 rookie pick.

Team B: Sends Laquon Treadwell

As someone who took Treadwell at 1.02 last year I would be happy to get a 2.01 for him this year.

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FFPC trade (1.5 ppr for TE)

Team A trades - A Robinson, H. Henry, & 2017 1.06 pick

Team B trades - O. Beckham & 2017 6.07 pick.

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29 minutes ago, buck naked said:

FFPC trade (1.5 ppr for TE)

Team A trades - A Robinson, H. Henry, & 2017 1.06 pick

Team B trades - O. Beckham & 2017 6.07 pick.

Not sure to be honest. Odell is my #1 rated WR for dynasty but those are 3 really nice pieces and I am probably a man on an island but out of those pieces the one I value the most is Henry who is on my short list of candidates for #1 dynasty TE. Honestly don't know on this one, might depend on team makeup but either way I got it down as close.

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1 hour ago, Tybeeman said:

Non PPR Dynasty - 2 trades

Trade 1

Team A: Sends Blake Bortles/Tony Romo/CJ Prosise/6ht round rookie pick (6.2)

Team B: Sends Aaron Rodgers/Duke Johnson

Trade 2

Team A: Sends 2017 2.01 rookie pick.

Team B: Sends Laquon Treadwell

 

39 minutes ago, ILUVBEER99 said:

Don't understand that trade at all.  Trash (Bortles/Romo/worthless rookie pick) and a crapshoot RB for one of the best dynasty FF QB's.  Very weird trade.

I can see it making sense in a 2QB league and you have literally no one behind Rodgers, but still.  It's widely assumed that Romo moves on and starts somewhere else and he's a pretty solid QB1 (landing spot dependent) and Bortles could be considered a nice buy low this offseason.  I don't hate it, only if it's 2QB and 12 team or more though.

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45 minutes ago, buck naked said:

FFPC trade (1.5 ppr for TE)

Team A trades - A Robinson, H. Henry, & 2017 1.06 pick

Team B trades - O. Beckham & 2017 6.07 pick.

This is a tough one for me as well. Odell is arguably the #1 dynasty asset, but I agree with menobrown that those are 3 nice pieces to get for him.

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1 hour ago, buck naked said:

FFPC trade (1.5 ppr for TE)

Team A trades - A Robinson, H. Henry, & 2017 1.06 pick

Team B trades - O. Beckham & 2017 6.07 pick.

I think this is a pretty fair trade but I would still prefer to have Beckham. This is close enough to make me pause on that though. Essentially giving two 1sts and a 2nd round pick which I think is fair.

What the logic was behind the 6th round pick making the rest of deal equitable is something that puzzles me as I see a 6th round rookie pick being basically air. I could think of some better throw ins like 4th round picks at least.

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38 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I think this is a pretty fair trade but I would still prefer to have Beckham. This is close enough to make me pause on that though. Essentially giving two 1sts and a 2nd round pick which I think is fair.

What the logic was behind the 6th round pick making the rest of deal equitable is something that puzzles me as I see a 6th round rookie pick being basically air. I could think of some better throw ins like 4th round picks at least.

I agree with all of the thoughts on this trade by Bia, Tybee, & Meno. A close trade. I got Beckham. This was the offer sent to me, and rather than negotiate and risk losing the opportunity to get Beckham in a fair trade, I accepted it. That is why the 6th was included - it was part of the original offer.

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Yeah I would have taken it too.

If your league has IDP then maybe that 6th round pick has a change to have some value but not much.

1,06 could be a nice player otherwise I don't really see this deal getting off the ground.

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3 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

 

What the logic was behind the 6th round pick making the rest of deal equitable is something that puzzles me as I see a 6th round rookie pick being basically air.

No idea in this specific case, but when I'm dealing with an owner who doesn't check in frequently, I may offer him 3-4 permutations of a trade with different players on each side, but want to make sure he understands it as a "choose one of these" and doesn't accept, for instance, multiple RB-for-WR deals.  Attaching the same last-round pick to every offer insures that accepting any one of them invalidates all the others on the table.

Would I rather have more active owners and actual discussion?  Yeah, but it's a local and he's a long-time RL friend, so I make do.

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11 hours ago, Zyphros said:

I don't agree.  It shouldn't matter if you look at it as a draft pick or a certain player.  They are technically the same value.  Yeah Cook is a good prospect but he's still that, a prospect.  I don't view him or Fournette on the level that Zeke or Gurley were at coming out to provide recent examples.  Evans is a top5 dynasty asset whose the undisputed #1 target on his team, and what was he top3 in targets the past 2 years?  Jameis loves looking his way and he comes down with a lot of those.  If you changed that trade from Evans to say OBJ, you'd be saying landslide too.  

Since 2011 heres the #2 pick in rookie drafts from 2 of my leagues, Treadwell (yet to be seen what he is), Melvin Gordon, Mike Evans, Montee Ball, Andrew Luck, Daniel Thomas (call it 50% success rate) and the other league Treadwell, Amari Cooper, Carlos Hyde, Montee Ball (call it 50% success rate), since we don't what Treadwell is yet.  Although I have my doubts about Treadwell cause WR's taken that high should produce for their teams in their rookie years.  Evans is one of the best so why risk that for a rookie WR who had a good year?  Plus, a lot is about to change in New Orleans, likely new coach, Brees is almost done and Thomas was a decent but not super star prospect.  I don't know, guess I'm lower on Thomas and higher on Evans than most. 

And I don't agree with you.  It does matter.  We know the players available this year.  Just like last year when Zeke was the clear #1.  You were trading for Zeke not the "theoretical value" of the 1st pick.  A discussion about other drafts is irrelevant.

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1 hour ago, Aunt Jemima said:

FFPC

 

Team A gives K Allen, 2018 1st (best guess is mid but hard to know)

Team B gives 2017 1.2, T Pryor, and 2018 3rd 

I'd take the side of the team getting 1.2 by a good margin.  

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1 hour ago, Aunt Jemima said:

FFPC

 

Team A gives K Allen, 2018 1st (best guess is mid but hard to know)

Team B gives 2017 1.2, T Pryor, and 2018 3rd 

This is close to me...I really like Keenan but Pryor showed a bunch and should be a good WR2 option with upside, I do like being able to have a player right away this year. If the pick is more likely to be a early to mid then I probably take Keenan and that pick tho as next year should have a decent top of the class. Basically I see it as Keenan>Pryor, 1.2>2018 first, I guess if I'm rebuilding I take Keenan. If I have decent WRs and can take the slight hit I take Pryor and the known early pick

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3 hours ago, Aunt Jemima said:

FFPC

 

Team A gives K Allen, 2018 1st (best guess is mid but hard to know)

Team B gives 2017 1.2, T Pryor, and 2018 3rd 

Allen side for me

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9 hours ago, DropKick said:

And I don't agree with you.  It does matter.  We know the players available this year.  Just like last year when Zeke was the clear #1.  You were trading for Zeke not the "theoretical value" of the 1st pick.  A discussion about other drafts is irrelevant.

Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.  As someone has already pointed out in this thread... none of these RBs are getting drafted by Dallas.  Heck, Joe Randle was third in fantasy RB points behind that Dallas line before he wigged out.

Talent is only half the issue... the other is opportunity

As far as any rookie being a can't miss prospect... Tell me who this is describing:

Quote

PLAYER is a talented back who should garner a top-five pick in this year's draft. PLAYER is durable enough to handle a season full of carries and it will be tough for teams to pass on such a talented, polished back that will be a franchise back for years to come.  PLAYER is as compact and coiled an athlete that the running back position has seen since Adrian Peterson. PLAYER is explosive, powerful and balanced, the three most shining traits that are evident when he ran the ball for SCHOOL. He is a heady and instinctual player who is patient enough to wait for blocks to develop within the scheme and quick enough to change course and cut backfield to daylight. PLAYER has a strong core that he uses to break arm tackles and get physical leverage under would-be blockers or blitzers in pass protection. He is a true three-down back who can be effective on screens and out of the backfield catching the ball. PLAYER is an ideal height, big enough to remain a force in the power run game, yet small enough to remain elusive and hide behind blocks.

 

Or how about

Quote

PLAYER projects as an every-down back who can make an impact on the ground and in the passing game. One of the most polished running back prospects in recent memory. Has rare natural running sense in terms of vision and patience. Great short area speed and burst to hit the hole, make defenders miss, and get to the perimeter. Runs low, breaks tackles, and usually falls forward. Dangerous receiver in the screen game and as a check down. Shows good effort and awareness in pass protection.  PLAYER possesses a great build and good top-end speed. Highly-competitive runner. Seldom goes down on first contact. Displays rare awareness, vision and patience. Waits for holes to develop, sets up his blockers, sees the cutback and explodes up field. Can make defenders miss in the hole and in space. Fast enough to get the corner. Contributes as a receiver and blocker.

Then there is:

Quote

There is no question the talent is there. PLAYER has drawn comparisons to Eric Dickerson and been lauded as this year’s version of Adrian Peterson, and his on-field performance provides plenty of supporting evidence. With 4,485 yards—at almost six yards a carry—and 42 touchdowns in three seasons, PLAYER more than lived up to the hype. He has good size and picks up yardage after contact, PLAYER has the quicks to reach the corner, the burst to get through the hole, and the afterburners to go the distance from anywhere on the field.

Here's a hint... all three are one of these eight players:

Darren McFadden, Michael Crabtree, Ryan Matthews, Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson, Giovani Bernard, Sammy Watkins, Todd Gurley...

Those eight happen to be the top pick (by ADP) for the eight years prior to this season... not pick 1.2, but pick 1.1  Each one was the safest can't miss product of their year.

Most rookies... even the blue chip ones... never live up to the hype.  I would trade the 1.1 pick predraft when opportunity is unknown for a top ten ranked dynasty player any year (let alone a top three like Evans) with a big smile on my face.  Sure, you might win with Zeke... but I win most (if not all) of the rest.

I don't care who the rookie is, or how good everyone thinks he is gonna be... there is at least a 50% chance he will NEVER be a top twenty player for dynasty, let alone top ten.... especially when you have no idea which team they will end up with.

 

Edited by Brisco54
Wrong memory about Lynch

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14 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

As someone who took Treadwell at 1.02 last year I would be happy to get a 2.01 for him this year.

It's way too early to be giving up on this guy. I suppose if someone unexpectedly slips and you have to have the pick at 2.1 but otherwise he's a hold.

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2 hours ago, Brisco54 said:

Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.  As someone has already pointed out in this thread... none of these RBs are getting drafted by Dallas.  Heck, Joe Randle was third in fantasy RB points behind that Dallas line before he wigged out.

Talent is only half the issue... the other is opportunity.  Marshawn Lynch was so bad after his rookie year in Buff that he got cut... not traded... cut... and then magically turned back into the beast he was as a rookie after getting behind the Seahawk line.

As far as any rookie being a can't miss prospect... Tell me who this is describing:

 

Or how about

Then there is:

Here's a hint... all three are one of these eight players:

Darren McFadden, Michael Crabtree, Ryan Matthews, Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson, Giovani Bernard, Sammy Watkins, Todd Gurley...

Those eight happen to be the top pick (by ADP) for the eight years prior to this season... not pick 1.2, but pick 1.1  Each one was the safest can't miss product of their year.

Most rookies... even the blue chip ones... never live up to the hype.  I would trade the 1.1 pick predraft when opportunity is unknown for a top ten ranked dynasty player any year (let alone a top three like Evans) with a big smile on my face.  Sure, you might win with Zeke... but I win most (if not all) of the rest.

I don't care who the rookie is, or how good everyone thinks he is gonna be... there is at least a 50% chance he will NEVER be a top twenty player for dynasty, let alone top ten.... especially when you have no idea which team they will end up with.

 

Marshawn Lynch exceeded 1,000 rushing yards in each of his first two seasons and was traded to Seattle during his fourth season in the league.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Marshawn Lynch exceeded 1,000 rushing yards in each of his first two seasons and was traded to Seattle during his fourth season in the league.

My bad... my foggy memory jumbled up him getting dropped in fantasy with real life.

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8 hours ago, Bfrahm3 said:

This is close to me...I really like Keenan but Pryor showed a bunch and should be a good WR2 option with upside, I do like being able to have a player right away this year. If the pick is more likely to be a early to mid then I probably take Keenan and that pick tho as next year should have a decent top of the class. Basically I see it as Keenan>Pryor, 1.2>2018 first, I guess if I'm rebuilding I take Keenan. If I have decent WRs and can take the slight hit I take Pryor and the known early pick

I'm Team A, my squad is weak at rb behind Gurley. I figured downgrade Allen to Pryor and get either Fournette/Cook at 1.2. I also have 1.4 so that should likely get me Davis/Williams as an additional wr. I think I'm good enough to make a playoff run, if I have injuries and fall short that will likely determine whether this is a win or not in the end. With how the FFPC works a just miss of the playoffs could easily turn 1.6 into 1.1 but I'm betting I make it so the pick should be no worse than 1.7

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3 hours ago, jeaton6 said:

It's way too early to be giving up on this guy. I suppose if someone unexpectedly slips and you have to have the pick at 2.1 but otherwise he's a hold.

I'm not as down on Treadwell as I am on the Vikings offense in general.

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11 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I'm not as down on Treadwell as I am on the Vikings offense in general.

The Vikings offense is a concern. I just took over a team lacking talent and a team that has virtually no rookie picks as the previous owner traded most of them away including his 2017 1st rounder, which of course is the 1.1. Let the rebuilding begin, and I hope Treadwell will be a big part of that :)

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12 hours ago, DropKick said:

And I don't agree with you.  It does matter.  We know the players available this year.  Just like last year when Zeke was the clear #1.  You were trading for Zeke not the "theoretical value" of the 1st pick.  A discussion about other drafts is irrelevant.

Last one then I'll stop.  It's not that I'm ignoring who the players are, it's that 1.02 = Fournette or Cook it looks like.  That could change in 3 months as well when someone blows up the combine and goes #3 overall ahead of those guys.  Just never know.  What I'm saying is 1.02 isn't a different value than Cook or Fournette.  You put a name to it?  Fine, I prefer to put the pick value to it because that's the constant.  It's always 1.02 and you can take whoever you like there.  Either way I prefer the top5 dynasty asset in Evans and a later rookie pick (who is going to be a very good prospect himself) to Thomas and an early rookie pick.  

Back to your regularly scheduled programming

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9 hours ago, Brisco54 said:

Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.  As someone has already pointed out in this thread... none of these RBs are getting drafted by Dallas.  Heck, Joe Randle was third in fantasy RB points behind that Dallas line before he wigged out.

Talent is only half the issue... the other is opportunity

As far as any rookie being a can't miss prospect... Tell me who this is describing:

 

Or how about

Then there is:

Here's a hint... all three are one of these eight players:

Darren McFadden, Michael Crabtree, Ryan Matthews, Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson, Giovani Bernard, Sammy Watkins, Todd Gurley...

Those eight happen to be the top pick (by ADP) for the eight years prior to this season... not pick 1.2, but pick 1.1  Each one was the safest can't miss product of their year.

Most rookies... even the blue chip ones... never live up to the hype.  I would trade the 1.1 pick predraft when opportunity is unknown for a top ten ranked dynasty player any year (let alone a top three like Evans) with a big smile on my face.  Sure, you might win with Zeke... but I win most (if not all) of the rest.

I don't care who the rookie is, or how good everyone thinks he is gonna be... there is at least a 50% chance he will NEVER be a top twenty player for dynasty, let alone top ten.... especially when you have no idea which team they will end up with.

 

You're talking to yourself here. You're not even addressing the point he is making. 

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8 hours ago, jeaton6 said:
22 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

As someone who took Treadwell at 1.02 last year I would be happy to get a 2.01 for him this year.

It's way too early to be giving up on this guy. I suppose if someone unexpectedly slips and you have to have the pick at 2.1 but otherwise he's a hold.

It's not really giving up, more like a reboot.  I also took him at 1.02 last year but I'd be mighty tempted to take pick 13.  Helps that it's an IDP league and that pick carries a lot more value in those, but even if I knew I wasn't drafting IDP I would still be tempted.  We know more today than we knew on draft day last year.  In terms of pure talent, I'd have Treadwell WR4 at best in this draft.  That puts him, at best, at 1.08 on my rankings.  Even if his 2016 season never happened and Treadwell were in this draft, knowing what we know about Minnesota today, I'd put that in the bottom 10 WR situations for him to go to.  That's only going to drop him on the draft list.  2.01 sounds about right, and in an IDP league it's a very solid exit price.

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5 hours ago, Aunt Jemima said:

wow (not involved) this one just went down in FFPC

Team A gives Jimmy Graham

Team B gives Hunter Henry

Sorry but in a dynasty format that's just nuts on team B's part. That's like giving up Carr for Palmer, or giving up D. Henry for J. Charles. 

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39 minutes ago, CabinFever said:

Sorry but in a dynasty format that's just nuts on team B's part. That's like giving up Carr for Palmer, or giving up D. Henry for J. Charles. 

Well yeah it's bad, but it's not as bad as those examples.  Graham probably has 3-5 years left and is coming off a season where he finished TE4.  Palmer probably has 1-2 years left and is coming off a season where he finished QB20, and Charles may be done today and is coming off a season where he basically didn't even play.

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1 hour ago, Hankmoody said:

It's not really giving up, more like a reboot.  I also took him at 1.02 last year but I'd be mighty tempted to take pick 13.  Helps that it's an IDP league and that pick carries a lot more value in those, but even if I knew I wasn't drafting IDP I would still be tempted.  We know more today than we knew on draft day last year.  In terms of pure talent, I'd have Treadwell WR4 at best in this draft.  That puts him, at best, at 1.08 on my rankings.  Even if his 2016 season never happened and Treadwell were in this draft, knowing what we know about Minnesota today, I'd put that in the bottom 10 WR situations for him to go to.  That's only going to drop him on the draft list.  2.01 sounds about right, and in an IDP league it's a very solid exit price.

Even if you don't like his talent or his situation his start-up value is likely to still be in top 60 without any positive blurbs that will only move his value up. That will be well ahead of the 2.1 throughout the offfseason. If you're intent on moving him I'd wait til you get that one guy who reacts to Rotoworld blurbs (there's always one in every league) and deal him then.

While his lack of playing time was concerning I personally don't see a guy like Thielen or Bradfords overall suck (he was better later in the season fantasy-wise at least) being big roadblocks in the long term. You don't draft a guy in first round only to let him rot on the bench. If that's true, then there should be enough targets to go around. 

To me it's just not a good enough return (IDP or not) to jump ship at this point.

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21 hours ago, Aunt Jemima said:

FFPC

 

Team A gives K Allen, 2018 1st (best guess is mid but hard to know)

Team B gives 2017 1.2, T Pryor, and 2018 3rd 

Allen is pretty close to pick 2.

Pryor is probably worth more than a future mid 1st (though of course in the FFPC that pick could be anything). 

I think this one just might come down to my current needs, but in MOST cases I think I would side with pick 2 and Pryor. 

Then again, I would really have to see the roster/picks for the team who owns that 2018 1st.  That is extremely important to me.

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On 1/8/2017 at 7:55 PM, jonrolly said:

Gave Mike Evans and 1.8

Got Michael Thomas and 1.2

Initially I thought Evans by a ton, but after looking at in more, will go with Evans by a lot.

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21 hours ago, Aunt Jemima said:

FFPC

 

Team A gives K Allen, 2018 1st (best guess is mid but hard to know)

Team B gives 2017 1.2, T Pryor, and 2018 3rd 

I'd rate the assets this way:

 

1.2, Allen, 2018 1st, Pryor, 3rd.  So I guess that makes it kind of even when looked at that way. I think it's an fair trade, if I had to pick a side I'd take 1.2.

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