matttyl
Footballguy
Wait, you had Luck, Cousins, Wilson and Dak all in a 12 teamer? You go with your bad self. I thought I was a badarse with Luck and Rodgers in a 10 teamer.
Yeah, in your shoes I'd be selling QBs for future 1s, good move.
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Yeah, in your shoes I'd be selling QBs for future 1s, good move.
I think time will tell the tale of a guy who hit a career year in year 3 due to a perfect storm of factors (Hoyer played better than expected, tons of targets, high % of targets and stats during garbage time).
Don't look at year 3 as some sort of baseline or stat that has hope of ever repeating. 2015 was more aberration than baseline.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I am looking at how he played. The dude is a legit stud WR. To me that is a much better indicator of future success than past years stats.
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He's a young Crabtree, which is to say very good, but how you define stud is up to you.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
k, thanks for the clarification.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Apparently i need to go shopping for Hopkins in my leagues
Spike
Footballguy
Cousins,Kirk
WAS
QB
Flacco,Joe
BAL
QB
Foles,Nick
KCC
QB
Hoyer,Brian
CHI
QB
Kessler,Cody
CLE
QB
Sanchez,Mark
DAL
QB
Hill,Jeremy
CIN
RB
Langford,Jeremy
CHI
RB
Lasco,Daniel
NOS
RB
Martin,Doug
TBB
RB
McKinnon,Jerick
MIN
RB
Miller,Lamar
HOU
RB
Sims,Charles
TBB
RB
Smallwood,Wendell
PHI
RB
Williams,Karlos
PIT
RB
Baldwin,Doug
SEA
WR
Carroo,Leonte
MIA
WR
Decker,Eric
NYJ
WR
Doctson,Josh
WAS
WR
Floyd,Michael
NEP
WR
Funchess,Devin
CAR
WR
Jackson,Vincent
TBB
WR
Jeffery,Alshon
CHI
WR
Montgomery,Ty
GBP
WR
Robinson,Allen
JAC
WR
Wheaton,Markus
PIT
WR
Wilson,Albert
KCC
WR
DeValve,Seth
CLE
TE
Pruitt,MyCole
CHI
TE
Uzomah,C.J.
CIN
TE
Walker,Delanie
TEN
TE
Spike
Footballguy
Yup...and Alex Smith who I just sold (with Tim Hightower) for 2018 3rd and 5th round picks (should be high). Never would have started either Smith or Hightower and picked up both for 1 unit of FA currency.
He had bad QB's previously but regressed and I felt struggled to separate. Does not pass studly eye test to me in every way. Does not run fast, is not much a YAC threat.
Maybe the heavily targeted monster year three was the anomaly which was especially aided by the team trailing more in 2015. Even that season his fantasy points per target of 1.71 is not studly nor his career fantasy points per target of 1.61 very studly especially when comped to WR's I view as studs who have career fantasy point per targets like Brown(1.81), Julio (1.88), Odell(1.94) and even after two down seasons Dez at 1.96. Those numbers suggest more of a good WR who cashed on huge usage to put up stud stats.(all fantasy stats based only on receiving game, not rushing/passing/)
This goes back to that conversation from another thread, when is a proven stud no longer a proven stud? You fall under camp of putting issue with Osweiler, I don't. Sanders and DT did better than him with Osweiler the year before. People were even making a big deal when Savage took over that he had brought him back to relevance but I think Hopkins had like 8 catches and 84 yards on 16 targets from Savage, something like that and nothing to get excited about. I think he'd do better with an actual good QB for sure, just don't see that as reason for his regression and most of all can't count on him getting a better QB. I think more likely the other WR's on that team evolve and start cutting into his target share. I think Hopkins early on benefited from playing second banana to Andre and benefited in 2015 from a monster target load that made him appear more like a stud but than solid NFL#1 WR he is. A good WR, not a stud.
One More Rep
Footballguy
He is not being sold cheap in my leagues either. He is still being valued as a top 10 startup pick right now, exactly how he should be valued
pizzatyme
Footballguy
I wouldn't call Hyde and 1.4 cheap, but to each their own. I also wouldn't have NUK top 10 in startups, but again, to each their own.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Different in every league. Guy in my league wants the 1.01 plus another later 1st 1.14-1.16 range.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
14 team PPR Devy league
Gave:
Big Ben, Sterling Shepard, 3.14
Got:
Cam, Edelman
Gave:
Big Ben, Sterling Shepard, 3.14
Got:
Cam, Edelman
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garlicduck
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
I agree with everything you said except I gotta nitpick this statement. I don't think Fitzpatrick and Hoyer are great QBs, but they had QBR over 90 in 2014 and 2015. So they may not be world beaters, but Hopkins actually had better than average QB play during those two years, making it all the more ridiculous that Hopkins fanboys wanted to claim he was "QB-proof" after those two years. I maintain that Hopkins = Crabtree and that's actually high praise. What it isn't, though, is a stud WR rating. Hopkins should not be a top 10 startup pick.
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
12 team, start Q/R/WWW/T/ + 2 flex, PPR for WR/TE, .5 PPR for RB
I traded pick 9 and D.Green-Beckham for Rawls, pick 20, and a few blind bidding bucks (7% of yearly dole)
I'm down on DGB, and my opinion of Rawls actually went up watching him a few times this year. His #s were terrible vs Rams and Cards, pretty good against the rest overall, despite a bad O line. I think Seattle addresses O line. Rawls is still young, 24 in August.
I traded pick 9 and D.Green-Beckham for Rawls, pick 20, and a few blind bidding bucks (7% of yearly dole)
I'm down on DGB, and my opinion of Rawls actually went up watching him a few times this year. His #s were terrible vs Rams and Cards, pretty good against the rest overall, despite a bad O line. I think Seattle addresses O line. Rawls is still young, 24 in August.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
DGB is a zero. You traded the 9 for Rawls and a pick. You won.
garlicduck
Footballguy
I don't like DGB and I think Prosise overtakes Rawls as starting RB in Seattle...so to me, the 1.09 is the most valuable piece in the trade.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
3.7/4.2 for 3.3. My first trade of the offseason?
garlicduck
Footballguy
I'll take the 3.3. I'm a big believer in moving down in the later rounds - odds are you don't keep the 4th round pick anyway.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I'm the opposite this early--don't see a reason to throw away another lottery ticket this early on for a four spot bump in the 3rd round...with no ideas about where the tiers will be I'd want both those picks in my back pocket to use for a bigger trade up later if necessary.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I agree with this with one caveat. I can't tell you how often I see a bad team with a ton of roster/taxi space draft guys and just sit on them. Because they're bad they aren't making tough choices like "should I drop Tyreek Hill or this other guy" so they end up lucking into Tyreek Hill. "Good" owners with tough roster choices are going to have these hard choices come final cut time, and some of those are going to be wrong decisions. In many cases I would rather grab a ton of late fliers, hold them all until September, and cut them all at that point. I know none of those terrible owners are going to pick them up, and this at least gives me a fighting chance at them when they do start to show a potential breakout.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I have 1.2, 1.7, 2.2, 2.3, 2.11, and now 3.3. Needed to consolidate as I don't have the space to roster all of them. Made offers for 3.1, 3.2, 3.3.
I'd have waited because I can't set my board on where cutoff on tiers would be until after the NFL draft, so don't want to give picks away I might be able to use for something else.garlicduck said:
I understand this team has a lot of picks to work with but I think that strengthens their trade position during the draft. If roster space was an issue I'd think you could flip that 4th for a third in 2018 if nothing else.
I recall an FFPC league last year where team 1.12 was OTC. I gave 4.5 and a future third to move from 2.5 to 1.12. Granted I gave more in that trade to move up but massive difference between moving up into late first versus moving up in middle third, at least when it's not player specific move up which it can't be right now.
I fall under the philosophy on holding my assets until I need them to use.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
You make a good point. My current philosophy here was twofold- consolidate picks for space and to try to make those later picks into an earlier pick in a talented class. I ideally will end up with another first, which may be more expensive the later in the year we get. I have a young team with about 5 roster spots to utilize and I'd like to get as premium a player as I can. Sure, you can just flip your 4th for a 3rd, but there isn't always a trade partner available. I feel like if your trying to acquire draft picks or move up now is the time, they just get more and more expensive.
gianmarco
Footballguy
In an FFPC league that is TE premium (1.5 ppr)....
Eifert/Smallwood was moved yesterday for A. Hooper/2018 3rd.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
I like the Eifert side. Green has talent, but injuries have really kept him from realizing the talent on the field.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Hah, yeah, I agree and have seen that happen. But for the most part, there are probably enough good/decent owners that are going to pick up the best of the ~4 guys you had to drop. Personally I'd rather trade away my late draft picks for known commodities coming off down years. I'd rather have Allen Hurns than one shot in the dark + one guy I'm probably going to cut.
Agreed Eifert has been hurt often, but when he's on the field I think he's shown more than Green has. At least IMO.
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At least Eifert has been able to showcase that talent long enough that we know he's definitely good. Green is still in the "we'll never know what he'd do healthy" category.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
garlicduck
Footballguy
pizzatyme
Footballguy
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garlicduck
Footballguy
Eifert got 98 points last year - TE # 25 in my league... Green has as much potential/situation if he can stay on the field. Plus, there are a bunch of stud TE in the draft this year that I can get at 1.12. - OJ Howard might even be there at 12.You'd take 1.12 for a top 3 dynasty TE??
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Eifert is vastly overvalued.
Yes, dynasty rankings are based only on the previous year's stats regardless if they were hampered by injuries. Go forth and get trade r***d!
pizzatyme
Footballguy
Hey now! One of those stud rookies could be good in 3 years.
Yes, dynasty rankings are based only on the previous year's stats regardless if they were hampered by injuries. Go forth and get trade r***d!
garlicduck
Footballguy
Eifert's been in the league for 4 years and finished in the top-10 once (#6 in 2015) and outside the top 24 three times. Jared Cook would tease every year also. I doubt Eifert has ever won someone a title. Give me Green and Howard/Engram any day.
Yes, dynasty rankings are based only on the previous year's stats regardless if they were hampered by injuries. Go forth and get trade r***d!
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
He's had one good year in four.
Yes, dynasty rankings are based only on the previous year's stats regardless if they were hampered by injuries. Go forth and get trade r***d!
Last I checked, dynasty rankings are based on the future
I think we both know that rookie TEs are not expected to produce and we both realize that a broken elbow in week 1 of his 2nd year is just bad luck. As for his 4th year, waiting really late in the game to get his pro bowl ankle injury worked on is just straight up baffling, but I'm still not going to condone the blanket statement of "he's had one good year in four" when there were obvious extenuating circumstances. When he's healthy, he's a proven stud. Anyone who denies that is crazy.
