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****OFFICIAL 2020 OFF-SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****

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12 hours ago, Matt's Eagles said:

12 Team PPR

Team A gets David Johnson, pick 2.12, 3.12, 4.12, 5.3

Team B gets Gus Edwards, 1.2, 1.8, 2.1

On one hand I believe DJ will be great value in drafts next year, on the other hand he's 27 (although lower mileage), on a what people are hoping to be an up and coming team.  If that O-line is solidified he'll be a possible fantasy MVP.  Gus doesn't do anything for me, so I'm just looking at this as the picks.  The picks will be more valuable on the surface for DJ, but that's with the projection of where DJ will be drafted rather than where he could finish.  He'll be a late 2nd, early 3rd type of draft pick and those picks I'd say are better than that.  

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12 Team PPR Superflex (QRRWWWT, Flex, SFlex)

A:  Todd Gurley, Tyrell Williams

B:  Kerryon Johnson, Robert Woods, 2019 1.11, 2019 1.12

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1 hour ago, Gordon09 said:

12 Team PPR Superflex (QRRWWWT, Flex, SFlex)

A:  Todd Gurley, Tyrell Williams

B:  Kerryon Johnson, Robert Woods, 2019 1.11, 2019 1.12

Could be a win-win trade. Gurley side is obviously nice for a deep team, but Kerryon and Woods are both underrated talents that could help a team with some holes in their lineup. Tyrell is a free agent lottery play... worth a 3rd right now, but could be more or less depending on landing spot.

IMO, Kerryon showed enough that I think it is safe to say he's a legitimate NFL talent and not going to be a bust. I personally think he's at least a Melvin Gordon level talent. So not Gurley, but pretty good and 3 years younger than Gurley. Woods will be 27 next season and is coming off 86 receptions, 1350 yards, and 7 TDs (including rushing and TD). It remains to be seen what the future holds for 1.11 and 1.12. 

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20 hours ago, garlicduck said:

Cooks/Chubb side by a large margin.

Cooks and Cooper are pretty much a wash to me.  People love Cooper's vast potential and the fact that he has 2 OMG games after joining Dallas but Cooks has outperformed him with 3 different teams/QBs.  Even if you like Cooper a lot more than Cooks, it's not worth the huge downgrade from Chubb to Jackson.

In a start 1-QB format, I don't see Jackson being all that valuable - obviously his rushing helps but he's no more than a QB2 and easily replaceable.  Meanwhile Chubb just turned 23 and if a no doubt top-10 RB who is just returning to full health and just scratching the surface.

While I completely agree with you, the Running QB bonuses are not to be ignored in our league.  Week 11 - 15, L Jackson was QB#3 overall (behind Mahones & Josh Allen).  I was "selling" this running QB point for him to up the ante in his offer.  I was not expecting Chubb in place of A Jones, but a 2nd round pick to be included.   But I was happy!! 

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19 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

.5 PPR

Kamara just got traded for Juju straight up. 

Former Kamara owner has a major rebuild coming so guessing he wanted youth at WR. 

Has Juju actually ascended to this now? 

I see this as a complicated offer to consider.  Kamara is still a key focus of NOS Offense & Ingram might be gone next year.  AB is likely gone from Pitt too.  Both players will be more the Def focus and both will see more targets -->  thus the complication.  

I am not sure I would part with AK even for JuJu but it is an interesting offer.  I do like both but Kamara is more likely to see more impact.  

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Who's selling Gronk?  I sold him in 2 dynasty leagues for 2nd rd picks.  I've decided not to go down with the ship.  It would have been better to trade him this time last year.  Always better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late.

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14 team PPR. Devy (one round, any class)

Gave:

Elijah Holyfield

Got:

Jared Cook

7th devy pick

13th devy pick

 

I've either made a huge miscalculation here on the odds of Holyfield being a stud or I've profited nicely. Hard to say which, he's certainly an interesting prospect. This is doubly nice because I got Holyfield around mid-season for AP.

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8 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

14 team PPR. Devy (one round, any class)

Gave:

Elijah Holyfield

Got:

Jared Cook

7th devy pick

13th devy pick

 

I've either made a huge miscalculation here on the odds of Holyfield being a stud or I've profited nicely. Hard to say which, he's certainly an interesting prospect. This is doubly nice because I got Holyfield around mid-season for AP.

I'll take the picks not even knowing who's available...  I think I can do better in the draft.

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1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

Who's selling Gronk?  I sold him in 2 dynasty leagues for 2nd rd picks.  I've decided not to go down with the ship.  It would have been better to trade him this time last year.  Always better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late.

It's already a year to late.

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6 hours ago, Birdie048 said:

I see this as a complicated offer to consider.  Kamara is still a key focus of NOS Offense & Ingram might be gone next year.  AB is likely gone from Pitt too.  Both players will be more the Def focus and both will see more targets -->  thus the complication.  

I am not sure I would part with AK even for JuJu but it is an interesting offer.  I do like both but Kamara is more likely to see more impact.  

Yeah I think Juju being only 22 and WR careers lasting longer is probably the best argument for Juju.  

I think it's more likely that AB is gone from Pitt than Ingram from NO, but both Juju and Kamara thrived in the current situation so either way both should be fine or even better off. 

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12 team, ppr for WR/TE, .5 ppr for RB, start QRWWWT + 2 flex, 4 year max contracts, $500fa per year with rollover

 

Gave - Kerryon Johnson (4 yr), Gesecki (devy 1 more year), pick 1.03, $50fa

Received - Kamara (3 yr)

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18 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I was the one trading for those guys in that deal, and admittedly I fully expected that most would be on the AJG side (and you/they would not be wrong). I just won this league with a fairly young overall core (Goff/Cousins, Kamara, Gurley, Damien Williams, Diggs, Ebron...) but other than Diggs my starting WRs were all on the wrong side of 30 (AJG, Edelman, Sanders, Baldwin) so I wanted to retool a bit (not rebuild but try to add some young pieces to mix in while moving some age).

I watched Callaway as a prospect and in a few games and I think he's a few tweaks to his game away from being a star. While I doubt he reaches it his upside is Tyreke Hill and he's paired with a great young QB to grow with - I am not a Landry fan and think he'll end up being the complimentary piece to Callaway.

Anderson had a great 2017 and finished 2018 strong. I have less hope for him as to being a star (and as a Jets' fan I want them to get a true no. 1 WR) but he's a great deep threat and started trending to being a better route runner. I'm not sure the Jets will be able to find a true no. 1 this offseason though allowing Anderson to continue to build his rapport with Darnold and growing his upside potential.

I fully admit losing this trade is a real possibility but coming off a championship with not a great chance to repeat I wanted to shake it up a little. I can't saying no seller's remorse ever creeps in, but I'm pretty excited that it will pay off.  

When you're coming off the ship I guess that gives you some leeway. I just feel AJ has enough name value that if you don't think he's done but still plan to move him, you're picking the absolute worst window to deal him. Why not wait until TC or preseason when he's healthy or even after a good game in September? Sure there is risk he might never be right, but my guess is even if he misses all preseason with nagging injury or slow recovery, you'd still get similar value to this deal.

Re: WRs and the "wrong side of 30", I read a very telling article (please don't as me to dig it up....) that basically showed for top WRs, they continue to produce strong numbers into their early 30s and sometimes beyond. Basically, any WR who is aging but still good enough to start implies they are very good and will still generate lots of production. Top tier HOF guys like Harrison, AB, Fitz, TO. I'd put AJ in close to that tier.

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12 hours ago, menobrown said:

It's already a year to late.

I agree, but I still would rather have a 2nd rd rookie pick than go down with the ship.

Edited by JohnnyU

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1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

I agree, but I still would rather have a 2nd rd rookie pick than go down with the ship.

you kind of already went down with the ship, you are just barely hanging on to that floating piece of wood. 2nd rd pick is more than zero but not by much

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14 hours ago, grateful zed said:

whats a good offer for a brown?

1st round pick?  more?

Brown is still worth a fair amount more than a 1st rd pick. He'll land somewhere and still put up 100 - 1200 - 10. Doesn't appear to be fading so minimum I'd say 2-3 stud years left. In this year's draft probably closer to 3 first rd picks if I owned him

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15 hours ago, menobrown said:

It's already a year to late.

If you look at his prior sentence I think that's basically what he was saying.

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52 minutes ago, Aunt Jemima said:

you kind of already went down with the ship, you are just barely hanging on to that floating piece of wood. 2nd rd pick is more than zero but not by much

Yep, I'm Leonardo Dicaprio hanging on to the door in the north Atlantic. 

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5 hours ago, tombonneau said:

Why not wait until TC or preseason when he's healthy or even after a good game in September? Sure there is risk he might never be right, but my guess is even if he misses all preseason with nagging injury or slow recovery, you'd still get similar value to this deal.

I can't give you a good reason for that other than I get antsy once I decide to go a certain direction and start dealing.

As to your point about WRs over 30, I do agree that 31 is not necessarily old for a WR but their trade value does start to dry up. Of all my "old" WRs, AJG would have been the one I was most comfortable with to produce, but that also makes him the most marketable. No one is even paying that package for Doug Baldwin or Julian Edelman and Sanders may not ever fully recover. 

It comes down to how one values the guys I got back - you mentioned trading him for draft picks instead in one post - but I'm looking ahead and assessing I'd prefer Calloway to a late round first in this draft and Anderson over a mid-second. I also have Damian Williams already so the other Williams is either a potential handcuff or lets me package the two in a trade. I won't beat this to death, but like I said I know this is a deal that may not end up working out, but I do feel good about it.

Edited by Dr. Octopus

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15 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

PPR

Gave: Kerryon Johnson DET

Got: Anthony Miller CHI, Mike Williams LAC

Kerryon by a fair margin.

7 hours ago, tombonneau said:

When you're coming off the ship I guess that gives you some leeway. I just feel AJ has enough name value that if you don't think he's done but still plan to move him, you're picking the absolute worst window to deal him. Why not wait until TC or preseason when he's healthy or even after a good game in September? Sure there is risk he might never be right, but my guess is even if he misses all preseason with nagging injury or slow recovery, you'd still get similar value to this deal.

Re: WRs and the "wrong side of 30", I read a very telling article (please don't as me to dig it up....) that basically showed for top WRs, they continue to produce strong numbers into their early 30s and sometimes beyond. Basically, any WR who is aging but still good enough to start implies they are very good and will still generate lots of production. Top tier HOF guys like Harrison, AB, Fitz, TO. I'd put AJ in close to that tier.

FBG had an article... I want to say it was either Stuart or Harstad and it pointed out that 32 usually saw a dip in production and 34 was typically the cliff, but we've seen guys like Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, and Jordy Nelson drop off drastically after age 31 and Andre Johnson after age 32. Dez Bryant's last thousand yard season was age 26 and Maclin's was age 27. There are no guarantees of longevity in the NFL and AJ Green's injury trends make him a riskier bet than most are assuming. 

In the past 10 years, there have only been 10 players that put up 1000 yards or more at or beyond the age of 32. That's not to say there was one per year - there were some repeat offenders (Fitz and Smiff each had 3, for example). 

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Just now, FF Ninja said:

Kerryon by a fair margin.

Seriously? His usage in Detroit is always going to be problematic. Unless you're expecting Patricia to be down the door sooner rather than later.

Both WRs are primed for next year.

 

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Just now, Andy Dufresne said:

Seriously? His usage in Detroit is always going to be problematic. Unless you're expecting Patricia to be down the door sooner rather than later.

Both WRs are primed for next year.

Sometimes I jest, but I was serious this time. Did not mean to offend, though. I've got none of the players involved so maybe my gut reaction was incorrect, but this is my logic:

  • Patricia is a defensive coach. There will be a new OC this year so his usage could be very different than last year, although his snaps and usage were trending in the right direction last season before injury. And yes, Patricia could be gone by the 2020 season. But the important thing is that Kerryon appeared to be very talented and a capable 3 down back if the OC chooses to use him this way. I'd love to acquire him.
  • If you're concerned about Kerryon's usage, how are you not concerned about Miller and Williams, who are both playing in low volume passing attacks behind more proven (and IMO more talented) veterans (Allen/Robinson)?

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4 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Sometimes I jest, but I was serious this time. Did not mean to offend, though. I've got none of the players involved so maybe my gut reaction was incorrect, but this is my logic:

  • Patricia is a defensive coach. There will be a new OC this year so his usage could be very different than last year, although his snaps and usage were trending in the right direction last season before injury. And yes, Patricia could be gone by the 2020 season. But the important thing is that Kerryon appeared to be very talented and a capable 3 down back if the OC chooses to use him this way. I'd love to acquire him.
  • If you're concerned about Kerryon's usage, how are you not concerned about Miller and Williams, who are both playing in low volume passing attacks behind more proven (and IMO more talented) veterans (Allen/Robinson)?

You didn't, it's cool. :hifive:

I just don't see them using him in a 3 down role.

I know you talk often about TD regression so I can see why you'd waver on Williams but to me the lights look like they're turning on there.

I don't think Robinson is all that great, TBH. I expect Miller to be an every increasing talent in that offense. 

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3 hours ago, Aunt Jemima said:

Brown is still worth a fair amount more than a 1st rd pick.

Agreed. There are a few other WR's you could argue over him,  a group I'd put in his tier, but despite his age I got him ranked as WR8 for dynasty.  Obviously where he ends up playing will impact this ranking, but I would consider a potential landing spot like SF as actually upping his value, not sure it rises him up the ranks but I'd consider something like that a win.

 

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3 hours ago, Aunt Jemima said:

Brown is still worth a fair amount more than a 1st rd pick. He'll land somewhere and still put up 100 - 1200 - 10. Doesn't appear to be fading so minimum I'd say 2-3 stud years left. In this year's draft probably closer to 3 first rd picks if I owned him

You’d expect close to 3 firsts for AB?!

Maybe in 2015. 

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20 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Who's selling Gronk?  I sold him in 2 dynasty leagues for 2nd rd picks.  I've decided not to go down with the ship.  It would have been better to trade him this time last year.  Always better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late.

I'm comfortable saying he's done.  I'm honestly surprised you got the 2nds.

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4 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Yep, I'm Leonardo Dicaprio hanging on to the door in the north Atlantic. 

If you had held on to Gronk and not took the second I'd agree.

But you are the lady from titanic. The ship sank, you were floating around in the cold on what little remained of the ship and in the nick of time someone threw you a life preserver.

 

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1 minute ago, menobrown said:

If you had held on to Gronk and not took the second I'd agree.

But you are the lady from titanic. The ship sank, you were floating around in the cold on what little remained of the ship and in the nick of time someone threw you a life preserver.

 

LOL, I love the response to my ignorant post.

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1 hour ago, Edgar said:

You’d expect close to 3 firsts for AB?!

Maybe in 2015. 

You could both be right, depends where the draft picks would be.  If someone offered me 8,10 and 12 for AB I'd decline. Offer me 1,3 and 5 and we got a deal.  If we split the middle and called it picks 6-7 I'd probably decline and hang onto AB and would need that third #1 to sway me. Just depends on the picks.

Also I think AB is still the best WR in the NFL and while predicting how a player will age is not easy I feel like he's going to hold up very well. I remember picking AB in a startup 4 years ago in round one at pick 6 when he was 27 and decision for me was him or Evans but I was already a little apprehensive about taking a player with my first pick I knew the fantasy community would start devaluing every year going forward due to age.  What swayed me to AB at the time was looking at Marvin Harrison who is somehwat similar to AB and who did not break out till he was 27.  When Marvin was AB's current age he would go on to post 4 WR1 type seasons.  My feeling is AB is going to age in a similar way mainly due to work ethic, lack of injuries, no surgeries I can recall, and that he relies more on quickness then speed and in my experience quickness remains with you longer then straight line speed. He's a tactician, that ages well.

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2 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

You didn't, it's cool. :hifive:

I just don't see them using him in a 3 down role.

I know you talk often about TD regression so I can see why you'd waver on Williams but to me the lights look like they're turning on there.

I don't think Robinson is all that great, TBH. I expect Miller to be an every increasing talent in that offense. 

You may be right, but he had 32 receptions in 10 games after a slow start from a snap count perspective. They seemed to be ramping up his usage as the season went on, so I really don't see a cause for concern about his usage. 

Lights on or off, there aren't going to be that many targets leftover for MW after Keenan and Henry next season. Same for Miller. He played 3rd fiddle all year long to AR and Gabriel. Maybe he moves up to WR2 on the team next year, but the Bears still don't pass much. The Bears were 24th and the Chargers were 25th in pass attempts. I'm happy to acquire the WR2 in a top 10 passing attempt offense, but if we're talking PPR, I'm selling WR2s in bottom 10 passing attempt offenses. PPR is a volume scoring system. If the pass attempts aren't there, then it's very hard to thrive... with the exception of double digit TDs. So if your instinct is correct about MW, you'll be fine. I just don't feel comfortable projecting TDs.

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Just completed a deal in FFPC

Amari, Hunter Henry and 1.12 

for

Guice and 1.05

I'm done with the Amari headache and I love me some Guice, also have the 1.01 and 1.02 already and these WR's are looking better and better by the day.  My RB1 was Mack (or Aaron Jones), so I needed an upgrade there, plus the roster spot is big in FFPC.  I basically view this as 2 tier4 level players and a late 1st for a tier2 level player and a mid 1st.  Either way a win for me I'd say.  

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57 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Just completed a deal in FFPC

Amari, Hunter Henry and 1.12 

for

Guice and 1.05

I'm done with the Amari headache and I love me some Guice, also have the 1.01 and 1.02 already and these WR's are looking better and better by the day.  My RB1 was Mack (or Aaron Jones), so I needed an upgrade there, plus the roster spot is big in FFPC.  I basically view this as 2 tier4 level players and a late 1st for a tier2 level player and a mid 1st.  Either way a win for me I'd say.  

I like Guice a lot as well and own him on FFPC teams but I'd take have Amari and HH  over Guice and 5 fairly easily, 12 was just the cherry on top.

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3 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

10 man PPR 2QB. Team A: Russell Wilson and 2020 4th. Team B: 2019 pick 1.05, 2020 1st and 2nd 

Wilson by a wide margin in start 2 QB league.  A top QB like him you can plug in for 25 a game - has much more value than even a "good" WR or RB.  Even the 1.05 is a bit of a dart shoot this year - best case scenario is you get the best QB at 5, he's probably not going to be as good as Wilson.

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

I like Guice a lot as well and own him on FFPC teams but I'd take have Amari and HH  over Guice and 5 fairly easily, 12 was just the cherry on top.

Just curious if you're pretty high on Amari and HH then?  Or is it you don't see much difference between 5 and 12? 

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28 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

 pretty high on Amari and HH then

This is correct and driving influence for my thoughts on the trade was my positive feelings towards these two.

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11 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Seriously? His usage in Detroit is always going to be problematic. Unless you're expecting Patricia to be down the door sooner rather than later.

Both WRs are primed for next year.

 

I like Kerryon by a good margin too.

He was putting up borderline RB1 numbers even with Blount around and Blount will likely be gone now. 

FWIW early startup ADP has Kerryon in the mid 3rd, Williams in the mid 6th, and Miller in the mid 7th.

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32 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I like Kerryon by a good margin too.

He was putting up borderline RB1 numbers even with Blount around and Blount will likely be gone now. 

FWIW early startup ADP has Kerryon in the mid 3rd, Williams in the mid 6th, and Miller in the mid 7th.

I prefer Kerryon by a chasm. To me this is packaging the ~25th best WR and ~35th best WR for the ~12th best RB 

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Tis the season to divest of Antonio Brown, apparently.  Not involved:

Team A gives Antonio Brown

Team B gives Kerryon Johnson and Kenny Golladay

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8 minutes ago, Arodin said:

Tis the season to divest of Antonio Brown, apparently.  Not involved:

Team A gives Antonio Brown

Team B gives Kerryon Johnson and Kenny Golladay

This belongs in “worst trade accepted”

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If you are reading the AB thread, and if it's accurate, I  think there is some real worry about whether he is going to mesh with a bunch of strangers who don't immediately think he walks on water and whether his psyche can handle all the slights and confrontations and negativity a new QB, team and city will mean. This could be the worst trade or best trade we see in a while.

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10 hours ago, Edgar said:

This belongs in “worst trade accepted”

Not even close. AB is on the wrong side of 30 and Golladay and Johnson have shown flashes. I think the AB side may win next year but lose the four or five after that.

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21 minutes ago, Slider said:

Not even close. AB is on the wrong side of 30 and Golladay and Johnson have shown flashes. I think the AB side may win next year but lose the four or five after that.

Probably so, but certainly not in the worst trade realm if you’re a contender. I’m personally down on the Lions overall. Definitely wouldn’t want two.

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1 hour ago, Aunt Jemima said:

FFPC

Gave Leonard Fournette and 2.6

Got Chris Carson, Allen Robinson and 2.1

Fournette.  Not a Huge fan of Robinson 

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1 hour ago, Aunt Jemima said:

FFPC

Gave 1.11, 2020 1st (playoff team), and Tyler Lockett

Got Antonio Brown

AB in the highway robbery

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1 hour ago, Aunt Jemima said:

FFPC

Gave 1.11, 2020 1st (playoff team), and Tyler Lockett

Got Antonio Brown

Lockett and the firsts. Too many questions for brown. 

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