skinfanjon
Footballguy
I see it as even if the 1st is excluded. But throwing in a high pick in a strong draft? Oof.
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
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I'd have strongly preferred the Mixon side without the first. Let me put that another way and say I don't value Ryan much(not at all on some teams but if I needed a QB I'd put his value as a third round pick) and I'd have preferred Mixon/Diggs to Elliot. Close but I'd take Mixon/Diggs side.
Then look at rest of the trade and you got Vance Mcdonald, 2019 third, and a 2020 second for a first and Ryan. Since I valued Ryan as a third I tend to look at this as McDonald and a second for a first. Edge on that goes to the first. But if the first was simply removed again I would heavily favor the Mixon side, I would look at this as free McDonald and a 2020 second at least.
All in all as it stands slight edge to Elliot side because I can't stand giving up potential high draft picks in a loaded class AND giving up the best player in a deal so I'd not have given Elliot up for this but the pick was the difference maker.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
12 team FFPC style - offseason cutdown to 16, including K&D
I gave Lindsay, Woods, 1.08
I got Evans, 2.04
I gave Lindsay, Woods, 1.08
I got Evans, 2.04
skinfanjon
Footballguy
For me it starts with I wouldn't deal Elliott for Mixon and Diggs. It's close enough to be a legitimate offer, and I do like Mixon a lot as I know you do, but Diggs is just not enough to make me pull the trigger. There are 5 elite RBs right now in my opinion. I'd need a really solid nudge and the 2nd and 3rd and Vance dont do it. The 2nd has some value, but the 3rd is an afterthought in a deal of this magnitude and I couldn't care less about Vance in the context of this deal.menobrown said:
Maybe I'm being too strict but I have big expectations if I'm splitting up an elite elite guy into multiple pieces.
But add a 1st?? One that is almost definitely a top 4 pick in what everyone thinks is a really good draft? Absolutely not. Not f'n way. That's an auto reject from me for the reasons your last paragraph articulate. Best asset AND wayyy the best pick? We're not even close.
This is to completely set aside Ryan because again, the magnitude of the deal is too great to care. I tend to think everyone undervalues QB in FFPC to the point it creates an opportunity, but that's not factoring in to how I look at this deal.
I think I view things differently from everyone who posted on that trade in that I don't think Mixon is merely good. I thin he is elite. He's probably coming in for me as my 7th-8th ranked dynasty player, Elliot at 3 but my true feelings are that gap will close even more next season but Diggs more then closes that gap to me now.
But the first threw me off as well, that's where I went the other side.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Fair enough man. If you like Mixon that much it's worth it. I took Mixon 1.01 in several drafts that year and stand by it, but until he has an elite season I can't call him that. And if I'm splitting a known elite into two sub elites, I have to feel great about both of them. Mixon qualifies, but not Diggs. I've seen every snap Cousins has ever taken and he's not going to allow Diggs to ascend from where he is now in my book.
Just double checked Mixon ranking and I have him at 13. Elliot at 3 same as you.
ETA: but more importantly, on a separate tier behind Barkley, Gurley, Elliot, Kamara, and CMac in full ppr.
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I think your ranking of Mixon at 13 is more in line with most of fantasy community, maybe even a tad high . I'm a little out their by myself on where I got him.
I'm excited about the new coaching staff for Mixon but really only thing that separated him from Elliot last year was that Dallas finally woke up to using Elliot in the passing game. Mixon averaged 4.9 yards a carry to Elliots 4.7. Mixon average 11.77 fantasy points a game as a runner and Elliot was at 11.96. Mixon averaged .695 fantasy points per touch as a runner and Elliot was at .59. Splitting hairs to me on productivity in the running game so really all boils down utilization in the passing game were Elliot pretty much doubled him up. A guy like Gio could continue to stunt Mixon's passing game role next season but I believe that's end of Gio's contract and I think Mixon is a 70+ catch RB next year or 2020. In other words the one area that Elliot was clearly better then him next year I think he closes the gap on him because I think he's just as talented as him in that department(but in real football Elliot pass blocking is another tip in his favor)
Elliot wins a little over Mixon for durability, Mixon wins a little over Elliot for a year younger I believe and way less tread. The main thing that Elliot wins over Mixon is you just know that Cowboys will ride him to death, which can be negative in the long term but sure gives you a comforting feeling in the here and now. We got to see how the new staff uses Mixon, I think with Gio a little less then Elliot will see but I think the gap is closing.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
See that's why I like Mixon so much coming out, he has the total 3 down skillset. Those are interesting stats, hadn't broken it down that way. And I agree a regime change bodes well for him anything has to be better than Marvin.
Still, I'd hold Elliott another season and then start thinking about moving him depending on the type of team I had.
You may have convinced me to go Mixon shopping a little bit though haha.
Still, I'd hold Elliott another season and then start thinking about moving him depending on the type of team I had.
You may have convinced me to go Mixon shopping a little bit though haha.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
My biggest concern with Mixon is that he's never really separated himself from his teammates. We keep hearing about how Cinci was a bad situation but every time Mixon gets hurt a mediocre Gio Bernard steps in and doesn't miss a beat.
19.0
13.3
29.9
19.6
26.7
Those are Gio's fantasy points in the games he started because Mixon was hurt the last two years, and he did it while averaging almost 5ypc rushing.
So why are we operating under this weird assumption that Mixon was in some crummy spot that can only get better with the new regime? And if Gio can do that, why isn't Mixon doing even more?
19.0
13.3
29.9
19.6
26.7
Those are Gio's fantasy points in the games he started because Mixon was hurt the last two years, and he did it while averaging almost 5ypc rushing.
So why are we operating under this weird assumption that Mixon was in some crummy spot that can only get better with the new regime? And if Gio can do that, why isn't Mixon doing even more?
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fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Matt's Eagles
Footballguy
12 Team PPR
Team A got Lamar Miller
Team B got Sterling Shepard
Team A got Lamar Miller
Team B got Sterling Shepard
I'm going long.
I would not label Gio as mediocre. For years, basically pre-Kamara, during every draft I'd hear people say teams like so and so because they think he can be like Gio. He's not elite, he's not a feature back, but before Kamara dazzled everyone he was kind of the prototype third down/COP back. A high quality backup who could do the job a few weeks if called upon. We might define mediocre different, but he's not that to me
Mixon has only missed 4 games in his career, you are listing 5. I'm guessing you are utilizing a game where Mixon went out after 7 snaps because that was his biggest output in any game since Mixon arrived. That kind of seems like cherry picking because you left out the game that Mixon went down after 17 snaps. If you'd used the game he got 17 snaps you could have propped up the shaky YPC point but suffered in fantasy production. Just trying to get on same page as you for the games you are using.
So I'll just pick from your cherry tree and use the 5 games you used. In those 5 games Gio as a rusher: 12/61, 15/69, 11/62, 14/30 and the cherry picked game he exploded for 23/116 after Mixon went down . As you can see rushing production was not a major part of his fantasy production. We extrapolate that over 16 games that's 1,081 yards rushing, heavily propped up by one game. But in those 5 games he scored 5 TD's, caught 25 passes for 185 yards. We take all those numbers over 16 games and it's a solid 1,081 yards rushing, 80 receptions/ 592 yards and 16 TD's. That's outstanding per game fantasy production but you presented this in what I feel was misleading when you say Gio averaged nearly 5 yards a carry and provided big fantasy production. It's misleading because the bulk of the fantasy production was from heavy involvement as a pass receiver and inordinate high TD pace. The actual rushing numbers gave Gio 6.7 fantasy points a game. Bengals obviously also used him differently then Mixon, rushing him less and throwing to him more which makes sense considering Gio's more of a COP/third down guy.
Gio basically scored a unusual high amount of TD's, caught a bunch of passes and had one big game rushing. A high quality second round pass catching/COP RB doing his job for a few weeks. To me that's not a reflection on Mixon. I'm not down on Hunt because Williams was more involved as a receiver and put up big fantasy points. I'm not down on Elliot because in the 6 games he missed last year Alfred Morris slightly outrushed him in YPC. Backups, some high quality backups, coming in and doing their jobs a few weeks when called upon is not to me a reflection in anyway on the ability of the normal starting RB.
That's more words that have probably been used on Gio in a thread in a few years. I think we might have lost some people. LOL.
Next on what you term "this weird assumption" that Mixon was a in crummy spot and would get better. Let me houseclean and say I did not say he was in a crummy spot. But I for sure would not label it good, would you? I do think it improves but a lot of those reasons are window dressing and not the key point. New coach(which could be huge), Dalton and Green back to open up the offense and hopefully no in-season knee surgery are all things I expect would help him. But the big point I was trying to make earlier was he does not need to improve as a runner or much if any in efficency, for him to take the next step up in fantasy from a back end RB1 to elite top 5 status is simply catch more passes. I don't think expecting him to do this is a weird assumption considering he's pretty skilled at it. Looking at him vs Elliot and as I pointed out the only thing that made Elliot better in fantasy per game production last year then Mixon was what Elliot did as a receiver. That got Elliot to put up about 4.5 fantasy points a game more then Mixon. If Mixon simply catches one more pass a game for 10 yards he'll cut that gap almost in half.
I think the LOWEST amount of per game production as a receiver for all the RB's who outscored Mixon in PPG fantasy last year was James Conner at 8.5 fantasy points per game in receiving. Mixon put up 5.6 points a game receiving. Mixon was the 9th best RB in PPG production last year and the 8 RB's who outproduced him put up between 2.9-8.75 more points per game as receivers then Mixon. That's what is keeping him from joining the elite instead of just being a solid RB1.
I'd roll the dice on Shepard due to youth and hope that he can get out of NY after next year and find a more consistent role.
I'd take Ingram rather easily, thinking due to fairly light usage and development as three down back he might have 1-2 strong seasons left. Potential to be a RB2 for 1-2 years blows away a late third.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I think I overpaid, but marginally, and I cleared a desperately needed roster spot.barackdhouse said:
JackReacher
Footballguy
I value young three down skillset RB's more then anything in dynasty. I think most people would jump at the chance to turn Mixon into Hopkins, Thomas, JuJu, Reek, Adams or Odell. I'm not most people. I have him in the same tier as those WR's and would boil down to team makeup. Deep at RB I'd likely turn Mixon into one of them, thin at RB and I'm holding.
Michael Thomas is in consideration to be the #1 dynasty WR. When Mixon came out he was not quite in that stratosphere and I dealt him to get picks I used to draft Mixon and acquire Gio(who proved crucial to this team). That team at the time had Gurley and nothing else at RB but was fairly stacked at WR. Even with Thomas ascending to another level I would absolutely do that trade again and I think most people in that league would agree I'm better off having done that trade. Again, don't think that's a popular opinion but I think it made that team of mine better so just can't ignore team makeup which is why I bring this up. The year I made this trade my RB1 and RB2 positions combined to average 21 points a game(bad Gurley year). Teams like this I'd rather have Mixon.
No matter the team makeup I'd give any WR other then those 6 for Mixon. Those 6 would depend on team makeup. I said in an earlier post I had Mixon ranked 7th overall but I flip that around all the time, have a hard time deciding on where to slot Mixon vs those 6 WR's I mentioned if looking at in terms of startup or value in a vaccuum. If today I was sitting in a startup and forced to make the pick and my top 5 RB's were gone I'd probably take Hop, Thomas, JuJu, and probably Reek over Mixon which if so would technically lower Mixon to 10 overall. That 6 to 12 range is very up in the air to me, very fluid.
Sorry to be wordy. Short version is any WR other then those 6 I'd do it, team makeup if looking at dealing one of those 6.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Whichever one my league mates value higher so I can trade them away. I don't want either of these players.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Not sure why you are so surprised by that, the deal he took was far better than the deal you offered. Not to say he got the best deal he could, and perhaps he could have countered with you, but what you offered doesn't hold a candle to Mixon alone, let alone the rest of the deal for him.skinfanjon said:
I think he sold light but it's not tragic. Diggs/Mixon for EZE and Ryan is about right in my book. If I'm giving the better player I wouldn't want to add the pick upgrade but that's probably a sign of a better negotiator than anything else - he smelled a weakness the guy had and jumped on it. Maybe he knew he had a hard-on for Mixon or was high on Diggs. And getting Vance and a 3rd on top of a couple of starters might have him feeling like his 1st would be later rather than earlier.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Because it doesn't make any sense not to send a counter if you are planning to move the guy. I have Barkley, Tyreek, Kelce, Ridley, and Fuller on that team too. If you get a trade offer for a guy you know you plan to move, from a team with a lot of interesting pieces, why would you sell light before at least testing the waters? Makes no sense at all, particularly when you just bought an orhpan and have no idea the history of the league or know any of the owners.
TartanLion
Footballguy
What did you get Guice for ? Just taken over an orphan team and he's a player I'd like to target
I see this a lot. After an initial round of offers at best, an owner locks on to his “best offer” and negotiates around that, often ending with a deal better for his trading partner than what he might have had if he’d run parallel negotiations.
Not sure why, maybe people just aren’t comfortable working on simultaneous deals for the same players? But it does create an incentive for potential partners to come in with the stronger first offer, so it can have ancillary benefits as a long-term approach.
All I would add here is that some players trade for value, some players make trades to " get their guy" and and I think most people are some sort of mix. I'd put myself as somewhere in range of 75% go get my guy, 25% looking for value. Variations differ.
I can't explain the kinds of trades where someone gives up a player for a third when they could have had a second, that's just bad team management. But when it comes to trading for players and not picks, like the trade skinfanjon referenced, I don't questions those trades much with respect to spending much time worrying about why a player did not take my package of players I thought better then the package he took. I just chalk that up to simply not seeing eye to eye on the players, figure there was a player(s) that team got back they really coveted. They were not looking for value, they were looking for certain players.
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
FFPC
Team A gets Gurley
Team B gets Guice, Kupp, 1.6
Team A gets Gurley
Team B gets Guice, Kupp, 1.6
Zyphros
Footballguy
I want to take Guice but I just can't. Gurley side. Maybe if it was a different receiver than Kupp I'd lean the Guice side though.
Gurley side, even before we factor in the significant value of an additional roster spot in FFPC...
Matt's Eagles
Footballguy
12 Team PPR
Team A Devonta Freeman, DJ Chark
Team B Pick 1.2
Team A Devonta Freeman, DJ Chark
Team B Pick 1.2
Zyphros
Footballguy
When I first read the trade I thought it was 1.12, saw this comment and thought man I need to go do a price check on Freeman if 1.12 is to high.
But yea, 1.2 is way to rich, can't really imagine why anyone would pay that right now.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
16 team 1/2 ppr
Gurley was just traded for Kerryon Johnson and Godwin
Gurley was just traded for Kerryon Johnson and Godwin
Apple Juice
Footballguy
Lol. Good grief. Am I the only one not worried about Gurley whatsoever?
That trade is completely absurd.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Kerryon isn't the exact picture of health. but Hell might as well send offers for him now.....
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Live To Ride
Footballguy
12 team 1 point per rec.
Team A gave up Tyrell Williams LAC WR
Team B gave up Year 2019 Round 3 Draft Pick{ pic 3.1}
Team A gave up Tyrell Williams LAC WR
Team B gave up Year 2019 Round 3 Draft Pick{ pic 3.1}
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Mike Will easily.
Tough call on callaway, depends on If I loved him. which I don't, 10 cent head. but I think that might be a low sell - if Cleveland adds no one else this year and he can stay on the field. Wait one more year to move him I say.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Fantasy playoffs and actual NFL playoffs have weird effect on players values.....Kevan Barlow anyone.....Hell last off season I was trying to add Corey Clement everywhere...….as throw ins and what have you.....
something wasn't right about Gurley...cant tell me otherwise, I know what I saw.
