Chad Parsons
Moderator
JT > Moore > CEH
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- Thread starter Gottabesweet
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In terms of value, id probably want a 2nd or equivalent player added to the Moore side, but just on player preference I have it CHE>Moore>Taylor.
The small knock I have on Moore is I don't think he's a guy that will score a lot of TDs. He's been light on them so far and I think it reflects who he is as a player more than bad luck. If that's true, he probably lacks the high end ceiling you want, so I'd rather gamble on CHE. Not really a Taylor guy though because I don't think he gets the receptions to be a stud back.
The small knock I have on Moore is I don't think he's a guy that will score a lot of TDs. He's been light on them so far and I think it reflects who he is as a player more than bad luck. If that's true, he probably lacks the high end ceiling you want, so I'd rather gamble on CHE. Not really a Taylor guy though because I don't think he gets the receptions to be a stud back.
Chad Parsons
Moderator
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I guess I'm not understanding the process here. Rough estimates put a first round rookie pick player to bust 50% of the time. So 2 years removed from taking DJ Moore with a mid 1st, after hes displayed he is what you thought he was, you're going to trade him for another 50/50 proposition. It's confusing.
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Chad Parsons
Moderator
A global 50% bust risk for RD1 is not all that accurate. Depends on the position, profile, and where in the 1st round a prospect is being drafted to shift the odds around. Top-3 rookie pick RBs hit about 85% of the time as a reference point
Catbird
Footballguy
No one (other than perhaps you), at this time of year, with Taylor and CHE seeming the two safest pick of dozens and dozens of drafted players on whom teams have bet their futures, sees those two guys as 50/50 propositions. I suspect the top 2 picks are far better bets than 50/50, although we can all remember first and second picks who have totally failed. The risk is very real, but I don't think your 50/50 reflects either most ff player's view or the historic reality.
ETA : Oops. A shade late.
ETA : Oops. A shade late.
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Chad Parsons
Moderator
For example, a back-half RD1 rookie pick spent on WR is historically about 50-50 for hit/miss
Chad Parsons
Moderator
Also, even a rookie who does not 'hit' (yet or at all) can still maintain or rise in their perceived value in the first year or two. So dividing between the market liquidity/appeal and the actual utility of said player for a dynasty lineup are two different paths
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Just estimating 50%, but I think I read that somewhere. Oh well. I was really just trying to put it in terms easy to follow. A commodity with assurance versus one without. I don't think bust rate is really the best way to look at it either. Bust is vague, and not totally useful, not as useful as say expected value. Historically speaking in ppr, the EV for a 22 y.o. wr with 1175 yards is greater than a pick 32 rookie rb.
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A stud RB is still king. Worth the shot if you believe in the player. Thats why for me this boils down to who goes 1.1
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
There is no assurance in fantasy football. Moore is less likely to bust than the rookies but the chances of it happening are still far above zero. I can't imagine there are many people feeling great about paying a ton for a young JJSS, Allen Robinson, Sammy Watkins, etc.
I think the reality right now is that people just aren't very interested in WRs unless they are the truly elite, Michael Thomas type players. There are just so many good WRs right now it's so diluted. That's probably why Moore, who has done everything right so far, is still down there at 2.04 in startup ADP behind 10 running backs including both CEH and JT.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I guess I don't have an issue with DJM's value so much as with these rookie rbs. That JT and CEH are taken by start up pick 20, I don't get it. But it works for me anyhow, I traded all of my top rookie picks.
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northern exposure
Footballguy
I guess it is a small quibble on my part, but I would not lump JJSS in with Watkins (who has only shown brief flashes) and Robinson (who seems to always be stuck with subpar QBs). These boards seem intent on dismissing JJSS as a one hit wonder or yesterday's news and anointing Diontae Johnson as the next big thing.
I would not be so quick to shovel dirt on JJSS's grave. I'm not sure what you would classify as "a ton", but I have been acquiring JuJu where I can.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Based on what you're saying I'm surprised you have Moore above CEH. Maybe less a vote of confidence in Moore and more of an indictment against CEH?
rockaction
Footballguy
I was reminded yesterday in reading about CEH why I, in particular, hate him as a prospect other than situation. His speed score is woeful, according to Football Outsiders.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU
BackCAST Score: -36.1%
RecIndex: 0.18
Similar Historical Prospects: Ahmad Bradshaw, Christine Michael
Edwards-Helaire is the 2020 NFL draft's most overrated running back according to BackCAST. First, Edwards-Helaire has similar workload issues as Swift, except somewhat more severe. Edwards-Helaire was a complete non-factor as a freshman and played clear second fiddle to Nick Brossette, who would become an undrafted free agent, as a sophomore. Edwards-Helaire earned much more action as a junior, but even then LSU chose to give 140 carries to an assortment of freshman running backs. Moreover, when Edwards-Helaire did get the ball, he was only somewhat productive on a per play basis, averaging just under 5.6 yards per carry. To be fair, Edwards-Helaire was productive as a receiver, which could translate to receiving production in the NFL.
However, the real problem with Edwards-Helaire's projection is his size-speed combination, or lack thereof. Edwards-Helaire is only 207 pounds, which makes him one of the ten lightest backs invited to the combine. Despite his relatively small size, however, Edwards-Helaire recorded a slow 4.60-second 40-yard dash. The best drafted running back under 210 pounds that recorded a 40-yard dash of 4.60 seconds or worse is probably Ahmad Bradshaw, who had a couple of nice seasons with the Giants. The rest of the list is far less appealing: Ameer Abdullah, Mark Walton, Travis Stephens, Javon Ringer, Dee Brown, Kevin Taylor, Storm Johnson, and Shyrone Stith. None of those running backs made a sizeable impact in the NFL.
A second round pick -- where Edwards-Helaire is currently rated -- is a high price to pay for a running back, and it is an especially high price to pay for a running back without the historical markers of success, at least as a pure rusher. The question for NFL decision-makers on Edwards-Helaire is whether there is something great enough on his tape to offset the statistical evidence against his success - FO
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU
BackCAST Score: -36.1%
RecIndex: 0.18
Similar Historical Prospects: Ahmad Bradshaw, Christine Michael
Edwards-Helaire is the 2020 NFL draft's most overrated running back according to BackCAST. First, Edwards-Helaire has similar workload issues as Swift, except somewhat more severe. Edwards-Helaire was a complete non-factor as a freshman and played clear second fiddle to Nick Brossette, who would become an undrafted free agent, as a sophomore. Edwards-Helaire earned much more action as a junior, but even then LSU chose to give 140 carries to an assortment of freshman running backs. Moreover, when Edwards-Helaire did get the ball, he was only somewhat productive on a per play basis, averaging just under 5.6 yards per carry. To be fair, Edwards-Helaire was productive as a receiver, which could translate to receiving production in the NFL.
However, the real problem with Edwards-Helaire's projection is his size-speed combination, or lack thereof. Edwards-Helaire is only 207 pounds, which makes him one of the ten lightest backs invited to the combine. Despite his relatively small size, however, Edwards-Helaire recorded a slow 4.60-second 40-yard dash. The best drafted running back under 210 pounds that recorded a 40-yard dash of 4.60 seconds or worse is probably Ahmad Bradshaw, who had a couple of nice seasons with the Giants. The rest of the list is far less appealing: Ameer Abdullah, Mark Walton, Travis Stephens, Javon Ringer, Dee Brown, Kevin Taylor, Storm Johnson, and Shyrone Stith. None of those running backs made a sizeable impact in the NFL.
A second round pick -- where Edwards-Helaire is currently rated -- is a high price to pay for a running back, and it is an especially high price to pay for a running back without the historical markers of success, at least as a pure rusher. The question for NFL decision-makers on Edwards-Helaire is whether there is something great enough on his tape to offset the statistical evidence against his success - FO
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Chad Parsons
Moderator
CEH is one of the worst RD1 drafted RBs in recent memory is why I am lower than consensus on him @barackdhouse
rockaction
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I think it's fair. I like Ekeler, but I also like Chark. Throw in Conner and I side with A.
Chad Parsons
Moderator
I don't even like Chark much and would take that side.
And I hope Jackson isn't inside the keeper line for that team...
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rockaction
Footballguy
Chark is a metrics beast, though. Broke out last year...yeah, I'm biased.
Anyone you're high on that's been mentioned?
Milkman
Footballguy
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Tejas
Footballguy
FFPC $500 Dynasty League Trade
Blockbuster. Really needed RB depth.
Traded:
QB, K. Murray
WR, Jerry Jeudy (drafted @ 1.8 in rookie draft) - fell right to us perfectly.
Received:
WR, Terry McLaurin
RB, Raheem Mostert
RB, A. McFarland
QB, D. Jones
2021 2nd
Team construct before the trade:
QB: Watson/Murray/Hurts
RB: Cook/Ekeler/D. Henderson
WR:Hopkins/Julio/Evans/Thielen/Jeudy/
Perriman
After the trade:
QB: Watson/D. Jones
RB: Cook/Ekeler/Mostert/McFarland/D. Henderson
WR:Hopkins/Julio/Evans/Thielen/McLaurin/
Perriman.
Note: This trade was made on the heels of moving T. Hill and P. Lindsay for Julio Jones and Austin Ekeler.
Blockbuster. Really needed RB depth.
Traded:
QB, K. Murray
WR, Jerry Jeudy (drafted @ 1.8 in rookie draft) - fell right to us perfectly.
Received:
WR, Terry McLaurin
RB, Raheem Mostert
RB, A. McFarland
QB, D. Jones
2021 2nd
Team construct before the trade:
QB: Watson/Murray/Hurts
RB: Cook/Ekeler/D. Henderson
WR:Hopkins/Julio/Evans/Thielen/Jeudy/
Perriman
After the trade:
QB: Watson/D. Jones
RB: Cook/Ekeler/Mostert/McFarland/D. Henderson
WR:Hopkins/Julio/Evans/Thielen/McLaurin/
Perriman.
Note: This trade was made on the heels of moving T. Hill and P. Lindsay for Julio Jones and Austin Ekeler.
Chad Parsons
Moderator
Tejas
Footballguy
1 QB league, so figured it was time to cash in on the Murray hype before he ends up getting sacked 45+ times again. (Shocked they didn’t invest heavily or upgrade their o-line).
I’d trade Jeudy straight up for McLaurin, but just preference there. One has proven it on a really bad team (that should improve QB play), and the other is just a prospect on a stacked team. McLaurin should see the lion share of targets in WAS.
Trying to work a separate deal for a TE upgrade, as my current TE’s are Doyle, Herndon, Njoku and Asiasi.
Can cut some backup RB’s I picked up during the rookie draft - Benny Snell and Bryce Love.
Tejas
Footballguy
I think a full off-season as the starter in a much more regimented system, will be beneficial for Haskins.
McLaurin had to play with Keenum, McCoy and Haskins last season. He graded out as one of the best WR’s in the league his rookie season. Jeudy can hope to do that, but he has to compete with Gordon, Lindsay, Fant, Sutton and Hamler for targets.
Then again, I love OSU guys.
Also, think Mostert will be a major piece for a championship run over the next two seasons. Adding Williams @ LT will be huge for the Niners.
Milkman
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I think Jones' upside is being understated here. He was inconsistent game to game (but so is any rookie QB, including Murray) but his raw numbers were astronomical for a rookie.
His 16 game passing pace (only extrapolated from 12 games, so not like we are extrapolating out a 3 game sample or something here) was 4000 yards and 32 TDs. As a ROOKIE. And he quietly put up almost 70% of Murray's rushing production while he did it.
McLaurin >> Jeudy.
His 16 game passing pace (only extrapolated from 12 games, so not like we are extrapolating out a 3 game sample or something here) was 4000 yards and 32 TDs. As a ROOKIE. And he quietly put up almost 70% of Murray's rushing production while he did it.
McLaurin >> Jeudy.
On the surface this is a total make sense trade for your team that already has an elite QB in Watson to deal the hot commodity in Kyler and build out your RB depth, add a premium future pick and go ahead and get back another fairly high upside QB.
You dealt from a position of strength and depth to improve a weakness and came out fine on value side in a general sense.
My hesitation on the trade from your end is Kyler, even at a devalued position, seems like a blue chip type asset and it's not hard to envision Mostert and McFarland flaming out by this time next year and all you really got left to show for it is a second round pick and mulling over if Daniel Jones is worth keeping as your QB2 when cuts come. I'd have personally wanted a player back I felt more comfortable with as a long term asset but that's not easy to turn a QB into that that in FFPC. I am colored by fact I'm not as high on Mostert as most so if most are correct on this one you should do great.
If it was me I'd try and see if Mattison owner won't bite for Henderson and put the odds high that every week but the bye you got a solid Vikings starting RB option so that even with an injury to Dalvin, Mosert and the rest remain RB3+.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I love your side. I see from the comments that many disagree. I *love* capitalizing on QB hype/value in FFPC. Don't get me wrong, Murray is my #3 QB in dynasty right now and I think he is more than hype, but I have Jones right behind him so I see that part as close to even. I'll say Jones and the 2nd for Murray. I would take McLaurin all day over Jeudy straight up and I only think it's kind of close in the sense that I know I could flip Jeudy for some value. But otherwise McLaurin. So yeah that leaves a free Mostert in my eyes.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
FFPC
I gave Preston Williams, Herndon
I got Marquise Brown, Ian Thomas
I like Brown's chances to be a stud more than Preston's, who I have in a bunch of other spots, and in this one I also own Parker. Herndon was my TE3 and now Thomas will be. No biggie.
I gave Preston Williams, Herndon
I got Marquise Brown, Ian Thomas
I like Brown's chances to be a stud more than Preston's, who I have in a bunch of other spots, and in this one I also own Parker. Herndon was my TE3 and now Thomas will be. No biggie.
Reasonable minds can disagree on this one for sure, but I like both players youre getting vs their counterparts. I know the board loves Preston and I have him in a few spots, but mostly he feels like a guy that may be tough to hold on to for another year of FFPC. I worry about him starting the season on time or sputtering out of the gate, at which point the guys that pop on the waiver wire start looking really attractive. Brown can be a solid asset especially if you have the luxury of not needing to start him every week. He makes for a nice pick and choose type of flex.
As for the TEs, Herndon has potential but he failed to launch at all last year. At least Thomas' issues were more related to being blocked by Olsen. I like him as one of the top breakout candidates at the position.
He also had some serious blow up games in predictable spots, which is exactly what you want to see from your backup or rotational QB. He had weeks of 41, 33, 35, and 38 points in FFPC scoring. Unless you have Mahomes or Jackson you are probably starting him a handful of times this year based on matchups.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
WR Steven Sims + 2021 4th
For
2021 3rd
For
2021 3rd
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Tejas
Footballguy
It was Hill and Lindsay for Julio Jones and Austin Ekeler. I’ll take that deal all day competing for a championship over the next two seasons.
Tejas
Footballguy
Love that idea! Will put it through right now. Mattison was traded in that league a few weeks ago for a random 2021 3rd.
Tejas
Footballguy
I like this trade a lot for you. Makes sense to diversify away from Miami WR’s as you already own Parker.
Brown is a stud, will solidify himself this season as a guy that should have been drafted top 5 rounds in re-draft.
Like Thomas a lot as well w/ Bridgewater.
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
Did this back in Feb and no one liked it and wonder if anything changed now that we know the 1.12 was Reagor?
Fwiw, I also have Gurley, Akers (1.4) & AJDillon with my own picks.
Obviously won't know for sure until end of the season but I liked the deal then and like it more now.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I prefer Preston and Herndon over both Brown and Thomas. Preston a decent amount over Brown especially in PPR, Herndon literally 1 TE spot in my rankings difference. Brown was WR46 as a rookie last year in FFPC. Do people honestly think he'll dramatically improve on that? I think he'll get better sure, but then he settles in somewhere near WR30. Those guys you can find on waivers in FFPC leagues. I hate roster cloggers, Brown screams that to me.
Short version. Seems like a unilateral trade and an even one.
In a year we seem to have more potential breakout TE's then I can remember these are two of my favorites. Coin flip to me.
Preston and Marquise Brown both looked like really good high potential players at times but one is coming off a big injury and some baggage attached to him and the other one I worry deeply about volume. Again seems even, coin flippy, I probably have small leaning on Preston but I also have a Parker/Preston team and can see motivation to break up the Fins WR's and that small leaning may be negated by ability to do that.
I think this is the trade I viewed as department store pricing with paying first round premium for 1.12 but it being so close to an early second and sometime depending on the draft would end up netting you the same player as if you had traded for 2.3 or something.
So I take you are very high on Reagor by the way you phrased the message. Your 8th ranked guy? Probably no worse then 10th at least I'd imagine? Either way if you feel strong that your pick is going to be late next year you did fine, you got a player I"m guessing in a different tier for you then 2.1 and adding a third next year on top of it.
It’s close, but I prefer Kyler/Jeudy. FFPC roster spots are hard to come by and Kyler has rushing upside few QBs do. And McLaurin, while talented and in a better situation than Jeudy, is 3.5 years older. Sure, it’s not a huge deal whether a guy is 22 or 25 but I think the age gap is worth discussing
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
Yes, I have Reagor right around 8 so very happy he was there; anything can happen but i feel pretty confident this tm will make playoffs.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Thanks. I actually like Herndon a *lot* but I also have tons of shares of him. If he and Preston win the day in this trade, I still profit in like 4 other spots, so *shrug*. None of these guys are really starting for me anyway, but Brown might.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I wasn't really looking for him but this trade materialized this week and the more I think about it the more I think he could be a really sneaky good play for redraft. Worried about his floor but I think if I treat him like a luxury flex start then I'd be happy to swing for his upside.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Absolutely. As for whether he would end up worth more than Unicorn? I don't know I think it's a dice roll either way. Truth is I agree about the roster clogging potential, but I think it exists for both of them. For now I want to see what Brown can do in his 2nd year in that offense. This is now my only share of him, where I have 4 of the Unicorn, so believe me I'm rooting for your boy.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Marauder
Footballguy
You should feel really fortunate that Reagor fell to you. In my 6 non-superflex FFPC leagues, Reagor never fell below 1.09.
Just curious how you would feel about it now if you had your choice of Higgins, Pittman, Mims there?
Dez
Footballguy
Except Reagor fell to 12 in 2 out of my 3 non superflex FFPC leagues. Note you said never in yours thought you meant never in all.
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