Total agreement what you are saying on the 1.2 and Hill but in a non-TE premium I'd take the picks over the TE's and even in a TE premium I'd actually take 2.6 over Hooper which of course means I'm not high on Hooper.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (17 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Speaking of which, the Rams have a lot of salary tied up in a few players and do not have a 1st round choice next year. The oline had a very poor year LY and they did not do much to address the issue. On top of those mitigating factors the 2020 season may be played without fans in the stands. This is going to put some serious financial pressure on Kroenke. Among the probable outcomes of this might be a fire sale of talent to reduce his debt.
While I like Kupp's game when I look at all the factors I prefer Julio over the next 3Y.
If anything I would try to get the other owner to add another WR. Maybe someone like Crowder or Kirk.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
One of my leagues (12 team, .5 PPR) but not involved:
Barkley
For
Mixon, Sutton, Goedert, 1.5
Barkley
For
Mixon, Sutton, Goedert, 1.5
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I will likely be alone in this but I would consider taking Barkley here, and actually made a somewhat similar deal for him recently.Jonesin For Some Football said:
Value is obviously way on the Mixon side but I see Barkley as one of those generational backs that is going to be an elite fantasy asset all the way through his 20's, whereas I could see Mixon petering out at any point. I've made a vow not to quibble over lessor assets when it comes to true studs after I declined to make a similar deal two years ago for Barkley where I was hung up on giving up Ajayi and 1.07 (Kerryon) as part of the deal which of course as an owner I had dreams of them being reliable pieces for the next 5 years.
Realistically Mixon/Sutton or Mixon/1.05 should be pretty close to Saquon, but I have no problem with a team overpaying for him if they have enough assets to do so.
Last edited by a moderator:
EBF
Footballguy
I think it's hard to overpay for Mixon right now because his situation has been so bad that people still don't know how talented he really is.
I've said it previously, but I think we're in the Lynch-in-Buffalo phase of his career. The team is so bad that they're hiding his true ability.
The stuff he does is unreal and if they ever get a proper team around him, he can pour in the FF points.
That being said, if Mixon is Lynch then Saquon might be Peterson, so as much as I love Mixon, I also don't know if it's possible to overpay for Saquon.
I'm probably willing to call that deal a push.
I've said it previously, but I think we're in the Lynch-in-Buffalo phase of his career. The team is so bad that they're hiding his true ability.
The stuff he does is unreal and if they ever get a proper team around him, he can pour in the FF points.
That being said, if Mixon is Lynch then Saquon might be Peterson, so as much as I love Mixon, I also don't know if it's possible to overpay for Saquon.
I'm probably willing to call that deal a push.
Matt's Eagles
Footballguy
Team A got
Singletary, Devin BUF RB
Moore, D.J. CAR WR
Team B got
Brown, A.J. TEN WR
Higgins, Tee CIN WR
Singletary, Devin BUF RB
Moore, D.J. CAR WR
Team B got
Brown, A.J. TEN WR
Higgins, Tee CIN WR
Love me some AJ Brown but I'd have to go with the Moore side here. Probably not a deal I'd be looking for though if shopping Brown.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
You should specify who is giving/getting what.12 team, .5 PPR, 1 QB (not involved)
Team A: 1.2 (will be CEH)
for
Team B: 1.5, Courtland Sutton, and Preston Williams
Team A: (same as above) 1.8, Damien Harris, 4.2, 2021 3rd
for
Team1.10, Leonard Fournette, 4.7
Still trying to learn valuation of trades so.....Thoughts?
1.05/Sutton/Preson by a landslide. Nearly a free Sutton.
1.10/Fournette also in a landslide. Fournette for 2 slots and a future 3rd is absurd. Was this done OTC and Lamb was there at 1.08? That might turn it from a landslide to just an overpay. I'm a Damien Harris truther too but nothing justifies attaching this kind of value to him. He was a 2nd last year in a weak draft that got zero playing time as a rookie - that's a bad look for RB's.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
I like Singletary almost as much as Brown and Moore more than Brown. Maybe I just don't value tee Higgins enough.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
I like Brown a lot, but he had a lot of "lucky" plays last year. He is definitely talented, but he broke so many long plays. Maybe Tannehill isn't that good. Maybe Brown is. I don't know. But I see brown as a 52 catch rookie on a run first team with a mediocre quarterback, not the 1000 yard, 8 touchdown rookie that everyone else seems to see. I liked him best of the receivers coming out last year and I am an owner, just not quite over the moon about him yet.
Singletary was top 5 in the NFL in yards per carry, caught the ball very well, has a great o line, is (imo) the clear rb1 for a playoff team, and had some bad breaks last year. He broke a lot of big plays that got tackled at the 1, and his quarterback ran in an unusual number of goal line attempts. I think he's an up and coming stud and borderline rb1/high end rb1.
In ppr dynasty, I'll take brown. In non ppr or redraft, give me Singletary. They are close enough that I definitely wouldn't throw in a DJ Moore on top of Singletary.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Our Rookie Draft just finished and there were a few moves during / right before start....... 12 Team PPR 1/2/2/1/2 Flex
Team A: Gave up 2021 Round 2 Pick
Team B: Gave up 2020 Picks: 3.08, 4.01, 4.02, 4.08, 4.11, 4.12
(3.08 = Duvernay / 4.01 = Gandy-Golden / 4.02 = J Love / 4.08 = B Hopkins / 4.11 = Joe Reed / 4.12 = J Hurts)
Team C : Gave up 3.04 & 2021 Round 4
(3.04 = Josh Kelley)
Team D : Gave up 2021 Round 2 Pick & 2021 Round 3 Pick
Team D : Gave up James Connor, Jaylen Samuels, 2021 Round 1 Pick (late)
Team E : Aaron Jones
Team A: Gave up Deebo Samuel
Team E: Gave up 2.01 & 2.12
(2.01 = Vaughn / 2.12 = Claypool)
Team F: Gave up Noah Fant & 4.03
(4.03 = Okweugbunam)
Team G: Gave up 2021 Round 2 Pick
NOTE: Teams A, D & E are same Teams in each deal
Team A: Gave up 2021 Round 2 Pick
Team B: Gave up 2020 Picks: 3.08, 4.01, 4.02, 4.08, 4.11, 4.12
(3.08 = Duvernay / 4.01 = Gandy-Golden / 4.02 = J Love / 4.08 = B Hopkins / 4.11 = Joe Reed / 4.12 = J Hurts)
Team C : Gave up 3.04 & 2021 Round 4
(3.04 = Josh Kelley)
Team D : Gave up 2021 Round 2 Pick & 2021 Round 3 Pick
Team D : Gave up James Connor, Jaylen Samuels, 2021 Round 1 Pick (late)
Team E : Aaron Jones
Team A: Gave up Deebo Samuel
Team E: Gave up 2.01 & 2.12
(2.01 = Vaughn / 2.12 = Claypool)
Team F: Gave up Noah Fant & 4.03
(4.03 = Okweugbunam)
Team G: Gave up 2021 Round 2 Pick
NOTE: Teams A, D & E are same Teams in each deal
Last edited by a moderator:
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
rebuild on the fly for me in one league
Gave - Kittle
Got- Fant, 2021 1st and 2021 2nd, probably both late, in the 10 - 12 range.
Gave - Kittle
Got- Fant, 2021 1st and 2021 2nd, probably both late, in the 10 - 12 range.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Add that the first round pick increased in value over his rookie year very much looking like a force in this league at times.
Milkman
Footballguy
Don't like it brother. Kittle is a fine piece to keep for a rebuild. It's crowded in Denver and Lock scares me.
Last edited by a moderator:
Honestly this pretty close to market value for what I was seeing Deebo being offered and actually traded for in my rookie drafts last week.
Deebo was offered to me in one league for before I was OTC for 1.8. I said no, he ended up going for 1.10. In another league he went straight up for 8.
Vaughn's ADP, in FFPC league rookie drafts, is 8.
I don't really much like Vaughn. But based on his market value and what Deebo is getting back in trades I've seen this looks equitable to me, some might even say free Claypool.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Doubt the Deebo owner in my league would do it for the 1.01....every league is different...
EBF
Footballguy
I wouldn't trade Deebo for the 1.03.
Don't think there's a strong argument that the likes of Jeudy/Lamb/Reagor deserve to go ahead of him.
Fail rate on first round WRs is considerable and these guys don't look that special. Same for the RBs in that ADP range.
Struggling to understand that level of rookie fever.
EBF
Footballguy
This narrative didn't work out for you too well last preseason when you were naysaying his breakout signs:
https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/773930-dynasty-redraft-wr-tyshun-“deebo”-samuel-49ers/?do=findComment&comment=22090430
Not sure doubling down is the right play. He has some special traits and did some special things last year.
Didn’t work out? Seems pretty spot on thus far (57-803-3, 14-159-3, WR31) , yet you keep touting him like he’s the second coming. Keep up the good fight.This narrative didn't work out for you too well last preseason when you were naysaying his breakout signs:
https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/773930-dynasty-redraft-wr-tyshun-“deebo”-samuel-49ers/?do=findComment&comment=22090430
Not sure doubling down is the right play. He has some special traits and did some special things last year.
His high 2nd round draft capital bodes well for him as it relates to opportunities and he does have some plus athletic traits. I think he's a guy that will play in the league for 8+ years, and be solid at that. But I just fail to see the optimism as it relates to any sort of trajectory above "meh" fantasy starter. He's a guy I'd be happy with in the early 2nd of rookie drafts, because I think he's a safe ppr asset. But stud I'm not seeing. Will be fun to watch this one play out.
EBF
Footballguy
Not remotely true, but he was a top 10 WR in the second half of last season and top 20 in that stretch on PPG. Pretty good for a rookie year. A lot of teams were starting Deebo in the FF playoffs last season, and that's a pretty good outcome for your rookie pick. What's encouraging for his future trajectory is that he put up those numbers on a relatively low number of targets, suggesting that he could potentially scale to much higher production if his targets rise without huge loss of efficiency. He was possibly the most explosive WR in the NFL last year in terms of big play %. He looks like a "hit" from last year's draft class and trading a hit for a chance at a hit is not ideal dynasty strategy.
There' s an argument that Lamb/Jeudy/Ruggs/etc have more upside, but the problem is that they also present massive bust risk based on the historic fail rate of rookie WR prospects. Even if you buy the notion that Deebo's upside is capped in WR2-WR3 territory (I don't, but let's just go with it), that's not a bad outcome compared to the full range of rookie pick possibilities. There are a lot of Corey Coleman, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell, and Corey Davis dynasty owners who would snap your hand off in a straight-up-offer for Deebo.
For me personally, I don't see anything so special in Lamb/Jeudy/Ruggs/etc that I'm going to pass up a triple for a chance at HR. Similar story for others like AJ Brown and Metcalf. Maybe they will keep growing and maybe not, but I tend to favor them over the rookie WRs since they've already established a certain degree of viability. A lot of players never even clear that first hurdle.
Last edited by a moderator:
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Lamb/Jeudy/Ruggs are the consensus 1.6/1.7/1.12 anyway so it's kind of a moot discussion to compare them. It's more like Deebo vs. Dobbins/Swift and while I would certainly prefer the latter and I'm sure most people would too I have no objection to someone preferring the former.
I think calling Deebo a triple already is a pretty big stretch though. Impressive rookie year no doubt but for all we know he could just be another Jordan Matthews. It's certainly not ideal that SF went and used a 1st round pick on a WR this year. Even if Deebo is good there are a lot of scenarios where he could be a more valuable NFL player than fantasy.
There are an excessive amount of pretty good WRs right now so unless you believe a guy has a good chance of being truly elite it's hard to pass up on them for a top RB prospect.
I think calling Deebo a triple already is a pretty big stretch though. Impressive rookie year no doubt but for all we know he could just be another Jordan Matthews. It's certainly not ideal that SF went and used a 1st round pick on a WR this year. Even if Deebo is good there are a lot of scenarios where he could be a more valuable NFL player than fantasy.
There are an excessive amount of pretty good WRs right now so unless you believe a guy has a good chance of being truly elite it's hard to pass up on them for a top RB prospect.
EBF
Footballguy
I like Dobbins somewhat and think can Swift can at least be decent, but I wouldn't classify either as a "top" RB prospect. Ditto Akers.
Will 1-2 of those guys be solid? Probably, but they're not Saquon or even Chubb/Mixon from a tools/talent standpoint.
This may be where I deviate from a lot of drafters. I don't think the upside of this year's rookies beyond the top couple slots is obviously any higher than the upside of a player like Deebo, so it makes sense to favor the guy who has already shown viability, as you're getting the same potential potential payoff with reduced risk. All it really comes down to for me. A 75% chance at a HR is worth more to me than a 50% chance at HR, which is a more accurate analogy for how I view it.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Fair enough and while we disagree on Swift's upside (I am quite high on him as a player) even if we're talking just "pretty good" here the current makeup of dynasty is that a pretty good RB is worth a whole lot more than a pretty good WR.
Stefon Diggs and Allen Robinson are better players than Josh Jacobs or Miles Sanders but Jacobs is worth 3 Diggs in trade value.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Of course not, but a starting RB with a pulse is typically worth more to me than a borderline WR.
I know you were responding to a specific point about them being top backs or not, but those are guys some people had at 1.01 before the draft. Samuel really could take another big step, but if I need a RB I don't think I would hesitate much to move him for one. The run heavy Niners attack along with drafting Aiyuk scares me a bit. Plus Kittle is the alpha there.
I loved what I saw last year but I think I'd almost rather swing and miss on a RB than potentially clog my roster with him. I don't own him anywhere.
EBF
Footballguy
Kelce was the alpha in KC until Hill really broke out. Not saying Samuel = Hill or that Garoppolo is anywhere close to Mahomes, but a lot of the commentary on Deebo stresses the fear factors while downplaying the latent upside. Just seems odd to me. If Lamb or Jeudy has an identical rookie year, people will be bullish going into 2021, but mostly what I'm hearing about Deebo is all the bad stuff and none of the good stuff. The size/speed combo is freaky and he was an efficiency monster last season. Could this be his ceiling? Perhaps, but there's also a fairly decent probability that he can push for a top 10-15 finish and become a real top flight asset.
If someone like Akers or Swift hits big and becomes another Ray Rice or LeVeon then of course you will love that pick, but people thought they were getting instant starters when they drafted David Montgomery, Rashaad Penny, Ronald Jones, and so many others. Every year people reach for the instant opportunity and only a fraction of these prospects fulfill the most optimistic visions of who they can be. I understand the argument of swinging for the fences to land the real difference-maker, but I think Deebo has a non-zero probability of growing into that type of contributor along with a much lower probability of crashing and burning, so I think the risk/reward equation favors him if your league format isn't too insanely skewed towards RBs.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
All fair. I typically manage my teams (predominantly FFPC) in a WR heavy strategy where I tend to churn through some RB2s. I usually have one good top stud RB and then a hot mess of glorified flex plays. But I'm usually elite at WR, TE and QB. I even try hard to do so at defense and kicker. But I find that RB2 is my sort of last puzzle piece that makes my rosters dominant.
So when it comes to what I see as a borderline WR that I may not even start, even if he *does* blow up, vs just something, anything, in my RB2 spot, I usually pull the trigger on the RB. I'd love for that RB to hit big but I'm probably happy with a pulse if he gets touches.
Note, I don't really like Akers or Swift and drafted zero shares of them. I don't own Deebo either so I've never stared down the barrel of this hypothetical. The thing is I actually really *do* like Samuel's game a lot. For me this would be closer to home if we were talking about Vaughn who is even cheaper. Though he hasn't been making it out of the first either.
I’d take a swing at the picks.
16 teamPPR dynasty
Gave: Hooper, Ian Thomas, Hakeem Butler and 2021 3rd
Got: Mark Andrews
i like deals where I get the best player and slightly down on Hooper to maintain his volume. I also am not sold on Butler becoming a viable, reliable FF starter.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
That's a Christmas gift. GREAT trade for you, and I like Thomas (although I admit not high on Hooper in Cleveland and I agree Butler has little value IMO)
I’ll take the 2.8 and 3.8
Hopefully I‘ll be able to deal perriman for something like this in my league.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
I've seen him go in the 3rd of another one of my leagues, which is why I shopped him. Plus I have MT, AJB, Beckham, McLaurin, Thielen, Parker, Crowder, Preston Williams, Harry, and more in this league.
Boston
Footballguy
Great deal for you...you didn’t give up too much to get a young TE poised to have an extended top 5 run at this position...having a talent like Andrews is real nice because you won’t have to worry about this position for awhile and it gives you flexibility to try and hit some home runs at backup TE that could give you some nice trade bait for another deal if they hit...
Chad Parsons
Moderator
I gave Jonnu Smith tonight for a 2021 2nd and 2021 4th. PPR, TE premium. I actually think there’s a decent chance Jonnu has somewhat of a breakout this year, but I’m not sure the volume is going to be there consistently enough in that offense. I’m left with Kittle and Dawson Knox. Before the trade, I only had one pick in 2021, that being a 4th.
I would definitely pay that price for Kittle. Seems like people don't value those premium TE, but in my 3 leagues last year the championship TE were: Kittle v Kelce, Kelce v Ertz and Kittle v Kelce. Maybe just a fluke, but it seems like those top TE are pretty valuable.bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
