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RB Christian McCaffrey, SF (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Boston
Footballguy
In the time Dunn and Alstott played together (5 years) Dunn averaged 14 carries and 3.5 receptions per game...Alstott averaged 12 carries 1.6 receptions per game...if McCaffrey gets close to 18 touches (as well as some return touches) I don't think anyone has a gripe with his usage at his draft position (real football)...
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BassNBrew
Footballguy
They do. River is was on the local show and said Stewart came to him and raved about McCaffrey. He said that Stewart doesn't hand out compliments often.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Christian McCaffrey's Carolina Panthers play their first preseason game tonight! Who's watching?
pantherclub
Footballguy
pantherclub
Footballguy
Not sure about Cook but I could see Cmac going early 2nd if he rattles off a couple of rushing td's and a couple of receiving td's off of quick tosses. I really wish the Panthers would just sit on him until the regular season both for fantasy reasons and for the good of the team.
Faust
MVP
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Just look at what one slick cut did to Ameer Abdullah's ADP 2 years ago. It won't take much for CMc or Cooks to wow people with an ESPN highlight play.
Rodeojones
Footballguy
Louis Riddick Verified account @LRiddickESPN
As just mentioned on #NFLLIVE on @espn...stop thinking McCaffrey is a finesse RB/WR. He played for David Shaw at Stanford. Power run game.
As just mentioned on #NFLLIVE on @espn...stop thinking McCaffrey is a finesse RB/WR. He played for David Shaw at Stanford. Power run game.
Johnny Bing
Footballguy
I'd love to see him on a bubble screen put a move on the outside line backer and take it 30 yards. If he took it to that house that might be asking a lot, but I'm curious to see him one on one with a linebacker and if J. Stewart is correct in his scouting report that no one can cover him one on one.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Totally! I'm fully expecting a TD from CMC tonight. I'm envisioning a 60 yarder, either via reception or run. Would prefer a run up the middle to silence all the people (cough, cough petekrum) who say he can't run between the tackles.
pantherclub
Footballguy
omally
Footballguy
McCaffrey is a rookie and needs reps with the team. He is in learning mode. Also, the speed of the game is different in the NFL, and he needs to experience it before game one of the regular season.
omally
Footballguy
Johnny Bing
Footballguy
Not if you want his stock to stay low. The more preseason he plays I think the more his stock rises.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Him being drafted as a RB12-15 in PPR seems a bit crazy to me.
I'm buying that CAR manufactures more touches for him in the passing game than they have for any other RB over the past decade. I'm also buying that he significantly cuts into JStew's early down work. And yet I still think he's being drafted at or near his ceiling.
I'm buying that CAR manufactures more touches for him in the passing game than they have for any other RB over the past decade. I'm also buying that he significantly cuts into JStew's early down work. And yet I still think he's being drafted at or near his ceiling.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Hence tweaks in is quotes. I would prefer not to see him, Luke, Cam or any other starter get any type of quality minutes in the preseason. Just a recipe for disaster. I think Cmac is going to adjust just fine to the speed of the game.
pantherclub
Footballguy
I think his floor this year is around rb 12-15 ish. The absolute floor.Him being drafted as a RB12-15 in PPR seems a bit crazy to me.
I'm buying that CAR manufactures more touches for him in the passing game than they have for any other RB over the past decade. I'm also buying that he significantly cuts into JStew's early down work. And yet I still think he's being drafted at or near his ceiling.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
pantherclub
Footballguy
I can see him getting 700 yards rushing, 500 yards receiving, 50 catches 7 tdsSameSongNDance said:
at the absolute bottom line floor level
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pantherclub
Footballguy
in ppr once you figure in his catches, probably not. I think as we stand today he is a strong rb2 with a strong possibility to creep into the top 10 based on his catches. I dont think you quite comprehend just how much they are going to force feed the ball to him.
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SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Well in any given year that'd make for a low-end RB2. RB12-15 is going to put up a fair bit more than that line.
East Coast Bias
Footballguy
It's time.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
If DA hits CMC there instead, that's a first down, maybe a tuddy.
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
First guy to run up and celebrate with KB ...
smart kid. Get that locker room
smart kid. Get that locker room
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I can see Jonathan Stewart getting 1,000 yards rushing, 200 yards receiving, 20 catches 8 TD's
at the absolute bottom line floor level
pantherclub
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
He has topped 1,000 total yards once in the last five seasons (and he had one season with 990 total yards).
He has scored 8 TDs or more once in the last seven seasons.
buck naked
Footballguy
I'm guessing PhantomJB was being funny, otherwise he blew any and all credibility he had.
Rodeojones
Footballguy
Evan Silva @evansilva 2h2 hours ago
Christian McCaffrey looked like a young Frank Gore on his 12-yard run, feeling out & following his blocks. Keeps feet at end & he's gone.
Christian McCaffrey looked like a young Frank Gore on his 12-yard run, feeling out & following his blocks. Keeps feet at end & he's gone.
Thanks, Chaka. It is true I was being somewhat facetious but it was in response to the "absolute floor" projections for McCaffery.
What I do believe is Stewart isn't going anywhere in that backfield...assuming he's healthy we'll probably see a DWill/Stewart type situation again.
So, let's say the split between Stewart and McCaffery is 60/40.
If someone is going to assume 700 rushing yards for McCaffery at (pick a number) 4.2 ypc, then that is roughly 170 carries....implying 425 total for the two and therefore 255 for Stewart..
255 x (assumed but reasonable) 3.9 ypc = 995 yds rushing for Stewart..
Then, if someone is going to assume 7 Td's for McCaffery you gotta give a fair share to Stewart (8)
20 receptions for Stewart is just his career 1.3 rec /game x 16 games
Totals: 1,000/20/8
Obviously, anyone can pick apart my numbers all day long and I wouldn't have a problem...but I'd like to see anyone who thinks McCaffery's absolute bottom line floor is 700 rushing yards do a total CAR backfield floor projection and let the SP pick it apart.
My other point in tossing Stewart into the mix was that anyone who does reasonable projections on the whole backfield will start to see a pretty big value difference between the two (in redraft McCaffery is RB16 and Stewart is RB39)
pantherclub
Footballguy
^ dont forget that Jstew gets hurt and dinged up each and every year
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
If I were to project a reasonable floor for McCaffrey this season, I'd go with 180 carries for 800 yards, 40 receptions for 400 yards and 8 TDs.
Summary:
1,200 total yards (120 FF points)
40 receptions (40 FF points)
8 TDs (48 FF points)
So that's 208 FF points as his absolute floor (my assumptions) in PPR, not including PR/KR yardage or scores. That was good for RB 14 in another league with similar scoring. So yeah, I guess I have his absolute floor as a top 15 RB. I'll take it!
Summary:
1,200 total yards (120 FF points)
40 receptions (40 FF points)
8 TDs (48 FF points)
So that's 208 FF points as his absolute floor (my assumptions) in PPR, not including PR/KR yardage or scores. That was good for RB 14 in another league with similar scoring. So yeah, I guess I have his absolute floor as a top 15 RB. I'll take it!
BassNBrew
Footballguy
That's a good thing because you bench his ### and don't get stuck with 6 fantasy pts that week
Chaka
Footballguy
biju
Footballguy
I'm going to try to project his rushing floor, inspired by your thoughts. (I'm only doing rushes because I have to get to work and I'm already going to be late.)
Mike Shula has been the OC for the Panthers since 2013. Here are the attempts/yards/YPC during this time:
Year Att Yards YPC
2013 483 2,026 4.2
2014 473 2,036 4.3
2015 526 2,282 4.3
2016 453 1,814 4.0
That's an average of 483.75 rushes for 2,039.5 yards and a 4.22 YPC.
Separately, here are the % rushes of the top 3 RBs per year:
Year Name % Carries
2013 Williams,Tolbert,Stewart 41.6, 20.9, 9.9
2014 Stewart,Williams,Tolbert 37.0, 13.1, 7.8
2015 Stewart,Tolbert,Artis-Payne 46.0, 11.8, 8.6
2016 Stewart,Whittaker,Artis-Payne 48.1, 12.6, 7.9
The Panthers have had a lot of injuries to RBs over the years with none of the above backs able to go the full 16 for all of the years played. I'm not concluding/suggesting this is systemic but rather why the "lead" back ends up getting on average just over 40% of the carries and the 2nd/3rd backs get roughly 23% of the carries (with other RBs and Cam taking the rest). It's possible McCaffrey takes a majority of the 2nd/3rd reps and eats into both Cam and Stewarts' carries as well but I think that gets him to maybe 33% (roughly 1/3rd of the carries). Take that rushes average and that comes to 161.25. The floor is different and is probably closer to the 23% average stated above, or about 111 carries. It's also possible that 161 total is bumped up if Stewart gets injured (likely, he doesn't have a track record of health) but that's difficult to predict and isn't the point--we're looking for floor.
So with that I'm suggesting 111 carries against the Panther average of 4.22 for a total of 468 yards rushing.
Shoot me down now.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
I'm not saying you're wrong because none of us can predict the future. However, CMC averaged 23ish carries per game in college. In his first preseason game he got 7 carries in 1 quarter of football... and you're predicting 7 carries per game this year for the 8th overall pick? Doesn't make sense to me. We'll see how this season shakes out but I'm sticking with my 180 rushes as his floor.
biju
Footballguy
(I'm not trying to argue--and I don't think you are either--but rather just trying to find some commonalities with others' thinking. Thanks for the discussion.)
First, I don't really see what his college production has to do with the Panthers and their usage. Perhaps it says he can take more carries but that's not how the OC has used his personnel in the last 4 years.
I also don't see how the preseason games mean anything toward regular season usage. Do you mean to say you think Jonathan Stewart is only going to get 8 touches a game? I doubt it as I know you do as well.
Finally, the difference in our estimates are 4 additional carries and I think a difference in YPC by 0.24. If Stewart and CMC are rotating as I suggested in a 2/3rds to 1/3rd split for carries (and yes, that is just an assumption that can very well be wrong--I even suspect that CMC will be in for obvious passing 3rd downs that might result in some extra carries) this is the difference between 12 drives (which was their average last year) and 11 drives where they miss that final CMC drive.
Honestly, it's the floor is probably in the middle of the two but I'm taking a slightly more pessimistic stance.
