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***OFFICIAL*** Washington Commanders Thread (11 Viewers)
- Thread starter dgreen
- Start date
dehaven123
Footballguy
so 9 picks next yr already, including an extra in the 4th, 5th, and 6th.
PinkydaPimp
Footballguy
Thoughts on sudfeld?
nittanylion
Footballguy
Holy Cow! Keith Marshall!!! Fellas, you couldn't ask for a better 7th Round flyer...
This is a very solid Draft in it's own right, but when you consider the crapfest we've been subject to for SO. MANY. SEASONS...
...I haven't felt like this in years, and to think it's only because we're doing something that good teams do.
I don't know whether to laugh or cry.
This is a very solid Draft in it's own right, but when you consider the crapfest we've been subject to for SO. MANY. SEASONS...
...I haven't felt like this in years, and to think it's only because we're doing something that good teams do.
I don't know whether to laugh or cry.
PinkydaPimp
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
Matt Jones is legit terrible. The problem is so is Marshall. He's fast and if nobody tries to tackle him he can probably outrun everybody on the defense. I think it was a good pick just on the off chance Marshall fell and bumped his head somehow magically turning him into a football player instead of a track star.
dehaven123
Footballguy
I'm confused. Doesn't he have to pass a physical first? Is it an injury settlement? What's the implications on the cap going forward?
I just heard part of McCloughan's press conference. Some interesting tidbits:
1. When asked about trading back and drafting Doctson, McCloughan said Doctson is the guy they wanted. On trading back with Houston, he said he can't tell us how, but they had it all worked out.
2. When asked about Cravens, McCloughan smiles broadly. He is just about giddy about getting Cravens.
3. On getting picks for next year, if there is a guy they want there, they draft them.
4. On Fuller, getting a starting cornerback in the 3rd round is good.
5. On Daniels, he doesn't have all the measurables, but when he hits people, they go backwards.
6. On Marshall, 5 star recruit who has some injuries and fell behind Gurley and someone else on the depth chart. There is some good tape on him.
McCloughan kept talking about being football players, character, team first players.
1. When asked about trading back and drafting Doctson, McCloughan said Doctson is the guy they wanted. On trading back with Houston, he said he can't tell us how, but they had it all worked out.
2. When asked about Cravens, McCloughan smiles broadly. He is just about giddy about getting Cravens.
3. On getting picks for next year, if there is a guy they want there, they draft them.
4. On Fuller, getting a starting cornerback in the 3rd round is good.
5. On Daniels, he doesn't have all the measurables, but when he hits people, they go backwards.
6. On Marshall, 5 star recruit who has some injuries and fell behind Gurley and someone else on the depth chart. There is some good tape on him.
McCloughan kept talking about being football players, character, team first players.
steelers1080
Footballguy
Hearing Gurley talk about him you'd think that Gurley thinks Marshall is better than he is. He said something to the effect of if he'd never gotten hurt, then people might not have known about Gurley. BUT, he doesn't seem too durable.
Jay Gruden had comments on all the draft picks. The article is:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/football-insider/wp/2016/05/01/jay-gruden-on-how-each-of-the-redskins-draft-picks-fit-into-the-puzzle/
Gruden's comments are Marshall are probably the most interesting. For the most part, he loves the draft picks, but makes Marshall sound much more like a project:
I love how Scot responded to the question about the trade with Houston. Trying so hard to suppress his laughter like he knew he played them. I just assumed they'd be happy with either Doctson or someone else, but to make that trade with confidence that Doctson would still be there is impressive. That's a commitment to gathering intel and an understanding of how to take advantage of it. Very well done.
Some quick thoughts on the draft process for the Redskins:
1. Prior to the draft, McCloughan indicated that they knew who they would take at 21 and they were pretty sure he would be there. Later, it sounded like there may be a couple of players. On draft day, it appeared the targets were gone and they ended up with Doctson.
2. McCloughan confirmed that he was not planning to go WR in the first round. He thought Doctson would be long gone by then. So clearly the draft did not unfold the way they thought it would. McCloughan also stated emphatically that Doctson is the player they wanted and knew they could still get him after trading with Houston.
3. Cravens is clearly a player McCloughan coveted. He is borderline giddy when talking about him.
4. Knowing that Cravens was highly coveted, the most likely original target for pick 21 is C Ryan Kelly. Some thought it could have been one of the safeties, but it is hard to believe they wanted to draft a safety in round 1 and Cravens in round 2.
1. Prior to the draft, McCloughan indicated that they knew who they would take at 21 and they were pretty sure he would be there. Later, it sounded like there may be a couple of players. On draft day, it appeared the targets were gone and they ended up with Doctson.
2. McCloughan confirmed that he was not planning to go WR in the first round. He thought Doctson would be long gone by then. So clearly the draft did not unfold the way they thought it would. McCloughan also stated emphatically that Doctson is the player they wanted and knew they could still get him after trading with Houston.
3. Cravens is clearly a player McCloughan coveted. He is borderline giddy when talking about him.
4. Knowing that Cravens was highly coveted, the most likely original target for pick 21 is C Ryan Kelly. Some thought it could have been one of the safeties, but it is hard to believe they wanted to draft a safety in round 1 and Cravens in round 2.
Ted Mullins
Footballguy
Was just about to post the same thing. I was surprised to see that this was the second largest TE deal ever, that means the Patriots are getting an absolute steal on Gronk.
I like this deal, I think with only $22mil guaranteed it's pretty reasonable considering how good Reed was for most of last season. Obviously the injury risk is there but Reed appears to be as good as any tight end other thank Gronk as a receiver. For reference, Travis Kelce recently got 5 years, $46mil with just over $20mil guaranteed. IMO this contract will eventually look reasonable or even sorta cheap compared to what other top tight ends are being paid.
I like this deal, I think with only $22mil guaranteed it's pretty reasonable considering how good Reed was for most of last season. Obviously the injury risk is there but Reed appears to be as good as any tight end other thank Gronk as a receiver. For reference, Travis Kelce recently got 5 years, $46mil with just over $20mil guaranteed. IMO this contract will eventually look reasonable or even sorta cheap compared to what other top tight ends are being paid.
Some quick thoughts on the Jordan Reed contract extension.
1. This is a 5 year contract extension. In 2016, Reed still plays under his rookie contract and earns $1.66M. Note that $1.66M seems unusually large for a 3rd round pick in 2013, but that is what the websites have.
2. To make a fair comparison, you need to compare Reed's contract ($10M average, 5 years, $22M guaranteed) to the contracts signed by TEs next year. There should be some discount since the Redskins are giving Reed a signing bonus and guaranteed money now for service in the future.
3. The Gronk contract is a difficult comparison. Gronk signed a 6 year, $54M contract in 2014, two years ago. And it replaced the 3rd and 4th year of his rookie contract (not an extension). So the Patriots gave Gronk $8.5M in salary in 2014 and 2015. If you figure his rookie contract would have paid him $1.5M or so for those two years, Gronk's equivalent contract in terms of an extension would be $ $52.5M for 4 additional years. And that was 2 years ago. Gronk got a really good deal. I suspect the Patriots wanted the deal structured this way so they would not be deferring the cap hits.
4. The Travis Kelce deal is actually a very good comparison. Kelce was a 3rd round pick in the 2013 draft, just like Reed. And he signed a 5 year contact extension just like Reed. It is for $46M with $20M guaranteed. He will play in 2016 under his rookie contact at $675k (much less than Reed, but that was negotiated back in 2013).
1. This is a 5 year contract extension. In 2016, Reed still plays under his rookie contract and earns $1.66M. Note that $1.66M seems unusually large for a 3rd round pick in 2013, but that is what the websites have.
2. To make a fair comparison, you need to compare Reed's contract ($10M average, 5 years, $22M guaranteed) to the contracts signed by TEs next year. There should be some discount since the Redskins are giving Reed a signing bonus and guaranteed money now for service in the future.
3. The Gronk contract is a difficult comparison. Gronk signed a 6 year, $54M contract in 2014, two years ago. And it replaced the 3rd and 4th year of his rookie contract (not an extension). So the Patriots gave Gronk $8.5M in salary in 2014 and 2015. If you figure his rookie contract would have paid him $1.5M or so for those two years, Gronk's equivalent contract in terms of an extension would be $ $52.5M for 4 additional years. And that was 2 years ago. Gronk got a really good deal. I suspect the Patriots wanted the deal structured this way so they would not be deferring the cap hits.
4. The Travis Kelce deal is actually a very good comparison. Kelce was a 3rd round pick in the 2013 draft, just like Reed. And he signed a 5 year contact extension just like Reed. It is for $46M with $20M guaranteed. He will play in 2016 under his rookie contact at $675k (much less than Reed, but that was negotiated back in 2013).
More on Jordan Reed: the Washington Post reported that Reed got $9.3M per year average. So it looks like there is $3.5M in incentives in his contract. The Post said Reed wanted $10M per year, but the Redskins would not budge on it.
If Kelce's contract has no incentives (and it looks like it does not), Reed and Kelce's contracts look very similar.
Reed: 5 yrs, $46.5M, $22M guaranteed
Kelce: 5 yrs, $46M, $20M guaranteed
Reed does have $3.5M of built in incentives, although we have no idea how achievable they are.
If Kelce's contract has no incentives (and it looks like it does not), Reed and Kelce's contracts look very similar.
Reed: 5 yrs, $46.5M, $22M guaranteed
Kelce: 5 yrs, $46M, $20M guaranteed
Reed does have $3.5M of built in incentives, although we have no idea how achievable they are.
massraider
Footballguy
Some guys run fast, and you can see how hard they are working. They really get cranking once they get in the open field. That kid looks like he was born to run fast. His speed is kind of effortless.
Brunell4MVP
Footballguy
Decent offseason thus far. Solid if not spectacular. Fixed holes at SS and taller WR in draft. Locked down their TE and got a CB that can cover. Fuller has potential at CB too. Got Galette back cheap, and if he's healthy he could be a game changer. I'm a Kirk fan, but glad they didn't overpay yet. Make him show it again. I think they quietly beefed up special teams tackling too.
Glaring weakness is the DL. Reyes, Baker, Golston, Paea, Powe, Francois, Ioannidis. Yikes. They gonna get pushed around.
I haven't kept up with projected cuts and I think they are under the cap, but I'm surprised Roberts is still on the roster. And to a lesser extent Riley. Maybe post June 1? Seems like they would find better players that are cut from other teams.
Glaring weakness is the DL. Reyes, Baker, Golston, Paea, Powe, Francois, Ioannidis. Yikes. They gonna get pushed around.
I haven't kept up with projected cuts and I think they are under the cap, but I'm surprised Roberts is still on the roster. And to a lesser extent Riley. Maybe post June 1? Seems like they would find better players that are cut from other teams.
matttyl
Footballguy
I think that's an injury settlement thing. It would shock me if he's on the roster after a week or two of preseason.
MattFancy
Footballguy
Agree with most here. Definitely think DL is still a weakness. Most of the other areas of concern have been addressed so far. Wouldn't be surprised if they added some DL depth after June 1, as well as some RB depth. Could see them bringing in a veteran RB to push Jones, since there isn't much behind him.
dehaven123
Footballguy
The best thing offensively is they are virtually guaranteed to know what they have in Cousins after this yr. Stability and continuity on an improving offensive line, plus all the playmakers on O back from last yr while even adding some in V Davis and Doctson. He has been positioned to have a very productive year. If he doesn't live up to expectations, there will be no excuses.
MattFancy
Footballguy
Agree. Cousins has all the pieces in place to build on his success from last season. No real changes on offense from last season. Losing Morris is a bummer, but he wasn't very effective in this offense anyway. OL stays intact, which should be a huge plus. And we add in Doctson and whatever Vernon Davis has left to offer. No reason for Cousins to decline this season. Sure, the schedule is tougher, but that's what happens when you're a good team.
crusty crab
Footballguy
I think Roberts is going to be cut after June 1st, which spreads the salary cap hit into next year. Rich Tandler talks about it here. He does say he thinks it would be better to just do it before June 1st, but this was back in March.
http://realredskins.com/2016/03/23/need-to-know-can-the-redskins-save-cap-room-using-post-june-1-cuts/
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nittanylion
Footballguy
Love the dynamic going on here between McCloughan and Gruden/Cousins...while McC is certainly saying to both of them, 'prove yourselves', he's giving them a fair shot against a 1st-place schedule by providing them with a support network of players on both sides of the ball to level the playing field.
Again, an example of something I've personally been starved for, for years now - a properly run organization caring about the forest, but looking after the trees at the same time. Beautiful.
nittanylion
Footballguy
All our Draft Picks are signed, sealed and delivered!
I know it is hard to get much from the rookie minicamp, but I thought I would try. Some tidbits (mostly from hogshaven.com):
1. Su'a Cravens was at ILB during the minicamp. Position is still TBD.
2. Kendall Fuller thinks he will be 100% recovered by training camp.
3. Gruden just mentioned Matt Ioannidis could eventually play nose tackle. Watching 98 today, seemed like it could happen, frame is there.
4. Keith Marshall tweaked his hamstring on Saturday.
5. McCloughan mentioned to one person to watch 25, referring to Lloyd Carrington, CB from Arizona State.
6. Keim later writes, "One undrafted player who stood out in one-on-one work: corner Lloyd Carrington. He was solid in red zone work."
1. Su'a Cravens was at ILB during the minicamp. Position is still TBD.
2. Kendall Fuller thinks he will be 100% recovered by training camp.
3. Gruden just mentioned Matt Ioannidis could eventually play nose tackle. Watching 98 today, seemed like it could happen, frame is there.
4. Keith Marshall tweaked his hamstring on Saturday.
5. McCloughan mentioned to one person to watch 25, referring to Lloyd Carrington, CB from Arizona State.
6. Keim later writes, "One undrafted player who stood out in one-on-one work: corner Lloyd Carrington. He was solid in red zone work."
DallasDMac
Footballguy
Makes me wonder. Was he solid overall, and really good in the red zone? Or just really solid in the red zone, where you don't have to worry about getting beat deep? The latter could mean he's just a good, physical corner that can be used in situational areas down around the goal line.
Heard Brian McNally on the Grand and Danny show today. He said:
1. Cravens looked good
2. Daniels looked good. McCloughan will draft special teams players later in the draft and Daniels looks like he could be a good special teams player with situational upside down the road.
3. Of the undrafted free agents, the ones that looked the best were in position groups with a lot of good players such as WR and CB.
1. Cravens looked good
2. Daniels looked good. McCloughan will draft special teams players later in the draft and Daniels looks like he could be a good special teams player with situational upside down the road.
3. Of the undrafted free agents, the ones that looked the best were in position groups with a lot of good players such as WR and CB.
crusty crab
Footballguy
There goes Roberts. Taking the full cap hit this year, like most were saying. Seemingly every beat reporter and anyone there says Carrington stood out. I wonder how much he really did to everyone, or if they were just parroting what they heard. Gruden said some positive stuff about him, and McC had said "keep an eye on 25". Sounds like they may have been scouting him as a potential late pick. Here's a little write up on him on Breaking Burgundy. Link
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Found this tidbit on http://www.profootballrumors.com/washington-nfl-news-rumors:
That is high praise from McCloughan. Sounds like Ioannidis has already made the team.
dehaven123
Footballguy
young guys seem to be performing well in shorts.
dunbar playing w/ the starters in the slot on nickel downs.
preston smith seems to be pushing really hard to make this OLB group a 3 party committee w/ kerrigan and galette.
lots of pleasant things going on right now.
bout to get even more quiet for a month, too.
dunbar playing w/ the starters in the slot on nickel downs.
preston smith seems to be pushing really hard to make this OLB group a 3 party committee w/ kerrigan and galette.
lots of pleasant things going on right now.
bout to get even more quiet for a month, too.
PinkydaPimp
Footballguy
dgreen
Footballguy
Some quick, minimal though 2016 offensive projections:
Total - 1,030 plays for 5,815 yards
Passing (including sacks) - 600 plays for 4,065 yards
Rushing - 430 plays for 1,750 yards
Att
Comp
Comp%
Yds
Y/A
TD
Int
Cousins
550
373
67.8
4120
7.5
28
13
McCoy
20
13
65.0
155
7.8
1
1
570
386
67.7
4275
7.5
29
14
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Jones
225
910
4.0
7
Thompson
80
360
4.5
1
Cousins
25
70
2.8
2
Other
100
410
4.1
2
430
1750
4.1
12
Tar
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
Jackson
80
50
850
17.0
6
Garcon
80
48
510
10.6
3
Crowder
85
65
700
10.8
3
Doctson
40
25
325
13.0
1
Reed
125
90
960
10.7
9
Paul
25
15
170
11.3
0
Davis
30
18
160
8.9
0
Jones
25
20
180
9.0
2
Thompson
45
35
260
7.4
2
Other
35
20
160
8.0
2
570
386
4275
11.1
28
Total - 1,030 plays for 5,815 yards
Passing (including sacks) - 600 plays for 4,065 yards
Rushing - 430 plays for 1,750 yards
Att
Comp
Comp%
Yds
Y/A
TD
Int
Cousins
550
373
67.8
4120
7.5
28
13
McCoy
20
13
65.0
155
7.8
1
1
570
386
67.7
4275
7.5
29
14
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Jones
225
910
4.0
7
Thompson
80
360
4.5
1
Cousins
25
70
2.8
2
Other
100
410
4.1
2
430
1750
4.1
12
Tar
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
Jackson
80
50
850
17.0
6
Garcon
80
48
510
10.6
3
Crowder
85
65
700
10.8
3
Doctson
40
25
325
13.0
1
Reed
125
90
960
10.7
9
Paul
25
15
170
11.3
0
Davis
30
18
160
8.9
0
Jones
25
20
180
9.0
2
Thompson
45
35
260
7.4
2
Other
35
20
160
8.0
2
570
386
4275
11.1
28
dgreen
Footballguy
The Redskins have been kind of low in regards to the number of plays they've run the last two years under Gruden, so I bumped that up a little to be about league average this year. I think they'll they'll be better on the ground this year (they were pretty bad last year, so hard not to predict an improvement), but will still lean mostly on the passing game. I think they'll bring someone else in at RB at some point to help out, that's why there's a decent number of carries and yards in the Other row for rushing. Total passing I'm predicting will be similar to last year's numbers.
dgreen
Footballguy
When dealing with projections, the obvious question back to you is: What would you change to get Doctson more numbers?
More overall team pass attempts, completions, yards, and TDs for the team? If so, is the increase in pass attempts coming from fewer rushing attempts or is it coming from an increase in the total number of plays? Either can be a legit argument, but not sure how many pass attempts it's reasonable to add. And, any pass attempts that are added, should be spread out among all the receivers, not just given to Doctson.
Or if you think the total passing numbers are in the right ballpark, then who are predicting to have fewer targets and receptions so that Doctson can have more? Right now, I'd find it hard to argue that Doctson is any better than the 5th receiving option on the team behind Reed, Jackson, Garcon, and Crowder. How much production can we reasonably predict for option 5 in the passing game? I guess Doctson's increase could come from the 88 receptions I'm currently giving Jones, Thompson, Paul, and Davis.
Of course, I'm not projecting injuries in these projections. I'm fairly confident guys will miss some time, so maybe Doctson has a stretch of games where he's getting a lot of snaps. Of course, Doctson hasn't exactly been the picture of health so far, so he could be one of those guys who will miss some time.
I'm long past the point in my life when I developed (uninformed) opinions about incoming rookies who I've personally never seen them play, so I don't have an analysis of Doctson's abilities or a prediction about how his career will turn out. All I know is I hear a lot of praise and I know he's supposed to be legit 1st round talent. Those bode well for him. But, I'd guess he was drafted using a BPA strategy and happens to be at a position with a log jam this year. If he's the next Randy Moss, he'll easily break through this year and produce much better numbers. If he's not, then his impact should be much greater next year when one, or both, of Jackson and Garcon are gone.
MattFancy
Footballguy
Oh no I don't think your projections as a whole are too far off, I just think Doctson ends up with more than 25 catches. I'm not entirely sure we end up with as many carries as that though. Think the run game will struggle to find it's footing at times and Gruden has shown he has no problem abandoning the run.
dgreen
Footballguy
Do you agree that he finishes behind Reed, Jackson, Garcon, and Crowder in receptions? Or do you see him overtaking one (or two) of them?
Personally, I would probably flip Garcon and Crowder's reception totals, and then I'd put Doctson ahead of Crowder.
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