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Dynasty & Redraft: QB Deshaun Watson, Texans

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12 minutes ago, Phenomena said:

Wow you guys are kind of pooping on him in this thread.  The Bengals have a solid defense and he was able to make several sustained drivers with both accurate throws and amazing scrambling ability. Yes, he needs some work on his progressions, but he has a quick delivery and seemed to have a good feel (on most plays) for when the pocket was collapsing.  I thought his accuracy was pretty good.

For a 22-year old making his first NFL start, I was impressed.

Just for some comparison sake:

John Elway's first start: Elway was 1-of-8 for 14 yards and an interception then pulled from the game.

Tom Brady Brady would throw for just 168 yards.

Cam Newton threw for 422 yards but lost the game 28-21.

Russell Wilson 153 yards 1 td 1 pick

Aaron Rodgers threw for 178 yards and 1 TD (after sporadic fill-ins and sitting behind Favre for years learning)

These people writing him off so early is a mistake.

 

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34 minutes ago, beerbuff said:

Just for some comparison sake:

John Elway's first start: Elway was 1-of-8 for 14 yards and an interception then pulled from the game.

Tom Brady Brady would throw for just 168 yards.

Cam Newton threw for 422 yards but lost the game 28-21.

Russell Wilson 153 yards 1 td 1 pick

Aaron Rodgers threw for 178 yards and 1 TD (after sporadic fill-ins and sitting behind Favre for years learning)

These people writing him off so early is a mistake.

 

 

So you're comparing Watson to Elway, Brady, Newton, Wilson, and Rodgers.

 

Let me know how that turns out.  To my knowledge none of those guys struggled to throw a medium out or gave up on throwing the football after looking down one read on their top receiver.

 

Find me a guy with a weak arm, mediocre accuracy, and didn't go through progressions and became a quality starter as his career progressed.  You're talking about completely different players as though they are interchangeable.

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21 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

So you're comparing Watson to Elway, Brady, Newton, Wilson, and Rodgers.

 

Let me know how that turns out.  To my knowledge none of those guys struggled to throw a medium out or gave up on throwing the football after looking down one read on their top receiver.

 

Find me a guy with a weak arm, mediocre accuracy, and didn't go through progressions and became a quality starter as his career progressed.  You're talking about completely different players as though they are interchangeable.

All I'm saying is those that are saying that since his numbers were not great need to rethink things. He could turn out to be a great QB years from now. As far as one reads-well did he have time to look at other reads? No because Cincy had a great defensive pass rush last night. He followed a simple game plan and executed it as he was told to.

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6 minutes ago, beerbuff said:

All I'm saying is those that are saying that since his numbers were not great need to rethink things. He could turn out to be a great QB years from now. As far as one reads-well did he have time to look at other reads? No because Cincy had a great defensive pass rush last night. He followed a simple game plan and executed it as he was told to.

 

It's not about the numbers.  I didn't mention his stats once in my comments.  If you want to make it just a simplistic discussion about stats I'm pretty certain I could dredge up numerous failed QBs who had better first start stats than Watson had.  To what end?

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I'll just point out that Savage, not Watson took all the reps with the first team during training camp.  Watson was not just starting his first game, but is basically learning on the job without the normal offseason practice that starters are supposed to get. 

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On 9/15/2017 at 10:53 AM, Bronco Billy said:

 

So you're comparing Watson to Elway, Brady, Newton, Wilson, and Rodgers.

 

Let me know how that turns out.  To my knowledge none of those guys struggled to throw a medium out or gave up on throwing the football after looking down one read on their top receiver.

 

Find me a guy with a weak arm, mediocre accuracy, and didn't go through progressions and became a quality starter as his career progressed.  You're talking about completely different players as though they are interchangeable.

 

Almost no QBs come out of college being able to go through progressions at an NFL level. Nobody.  Don't hold that against him.

As far as the weak arm and accuracy concerns... I thought he was peppering Hopkins the moment the WR came out of his breaks, including several back-shoulder-type or sideline-out throws.  I guess I was watching a different game?

I'm not saying he's going to be a stud ... I never jump on bandwagons early. Just saying he had a nice first NFL start. Where it goes from here... who knows?  He'll be fun to watch, at least.  Especially next week against the Pats.

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21 minutes ago, Phenomena said:

 

Almost no QBs come out of college being able to go through progressions at an NFL level. Nobody.  Don't hold that against him.

 

We're going to have to agree to disagree I guess.  I believe you are abdolutely wrong here.  To think that there are no college QBs coming into the NFL who are capable of checking out of their 1st read and into a second and third option is unfathomable to me.  You think there are no college programs that run pro style passing games and establish progressions?

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I can't imagine very many Texans fans that are not happy with Watson's performance so far.  I watched the game yesterday and he made some plays where a lot of QBs (including any QB the Texans have had in the last several years) would have been sacked.  

I wish my team would have drafted him.  

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28 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

That was s pretty strong performance yesterday for a rookie facing a damned tough team.

The Patriots are currently the worst defense in the NFL: http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&defensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&conference=ALL&role=OPP&season=2017&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=TOTAL_YARDS_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-n=1

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To do that with an inept O-line, awful play calling, not getting to be with the 1's all TC and the first game, that was really good

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48 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

 

But it's not just going against the D when you play NE, it's having to keep pace with or outperform Brady and the NE O to give yourself a chance to win.  That's no simple task that should be underestimated, and Watson gave his team a chance to pull off the W.

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19 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

But it's not just going against the D when you play NE, it's having to keep pace with or outperform Brady and the NE O to give yourself a chance to win.  That's no simple task that should be underestimated, and Watson gave his team a chance to pull off the W.

NE also played KC (#3 offense) and the Saints (#6 offense), that has a little to do with the Pats defense' poor statistical ranking.

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35 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

But it's not just going against the D when you play NE, it's having to keep pace with or outperform Brady and the NE O to give yourself a chance to win.  That's no simple task that should be underestimated, and Watson gave his team a chance to pull off the W.

It helps when the defense scores a TD for you.

If you can't tell, I'm a bit biased - I was appalled when we spent two 1sts on him. If he fell to our pick, I'd have been fine with it, but I was not about mortgaging next year to acquire the next Vince Young (IMO). I wanted to draft the best QB available this year, evaluate him, and if it didn't pan out, do the exact same thing next year. Now we're married to him and praying that "being a winner" or whatever intangibles people want to talk about will outweigh all the missing tangibles. 

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If you think he's the next Vince Young, I don't think you're giving him a deep enough look.  

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He looked much better, but there are still warts and issues he obviously has to work on. I'd like for O'Brien to maybe give some insight on that first INT in the presser today, I couldn't tell if it is was a miscommunication between Watson and Hopkins on the play call or if Watson just made a very bad decision to chuck it and hope Hopkins could make a play. The 2nd INT was just a prayer hail mary to end the game. His accuracy on some of the deep strikes they took wasn't all there, he had TE Anderson down the sideline but put just a bit too much on it. Another early deep ball was way off target. The TD pass to Griffin was a bit behind him but he was able to pull it in, however the TD to Ellington was perfectly placed. I put it in the game thread, but there were a couple of times he should have thrown the ball away instead of running it out of bounds or making a short underneath throw.

 

But there was a lot of good too. He looked about a 1000x times better than he did against Cinci when he looked mostly lost out there.

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Thoughts on this guy ROS in a re-draft? QB has been kind of a minefield this year and his wheels would seem to give him a projectable floor. Thinking about spending a decent chunk of FAAB to platoon him with Dalton as my QB2.

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9 hours ago, ajgargano said:

Thoughts on this guy ROS in a re-draft? QB has been kind of a minefield this year and his wheels would seem to give him a projectable floor. Thinking about spending a decent chunk of FAAB to platoon him with Dalton as my QB2.

I am thinking about dropping Dalton for him in my start 1 but must hold 2 QBs league.  Like you pointed out, his wheels give him a decent floor. 

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On 2017-9-25 at 11:23 AM, FF Ninja said:

It helps when the defense scores a TD for you.

If you can't tell, I'm a bit biased - I was appalled when we spent two 1sts on him. If he fell to our pick, I'd have been fine with it, but I was not about mortgaging next year to acquire the next Vince Young (IMO). I wanted to draft the best QB available this year, evaluate him, and if it didn't pan out, do the exact same thing next year. Now we're married to him and praying that "being a winner" or whatever intangibles people want to talk about will outweigh all the missing tangibles. 

I thought he was the best QB in the draft. I don't know who else to compare him to but he won big time at HS and college level and has that it factor. He's not afraid of the big stage and doesn't choke under pressure. And that's half the battle right there. Well over half the QBs in the league have missing intangibles. But you can tell he has that confidence that some of the others lack. I really think he can be one of the best.

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I think Byes start next week? Brees & Ryan owners will be looking here but KC isn't a great matchup IMO. Still he seems to be coming on and adds the running elements which leads to FF QB points.

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Wow. Just one game. But wow.

On 9/25/2017 at 11:23 AM, FF Ninja said:

It helps when the defense scores a TD for you.

If you can't tell, I'm a bit biased - I was appalled when we spent two 1sts on him. If he fell to our pick, I'd have been fine with it, but I was not about mortgaging next year to acquire the next Vince Young (IMO). I wanted to draft the best QB available this year, evaluate him, and if it didn't pan out, do the exact same thing next year. Now we're married to him and praying that "being a winner" or whatever intangibles people want to talk about will outweigh all the missing tangibles. 

Do you feel better about it now? 

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At the time of the NFL draft, I'd have put his odds of being a true franchise somewhere in the 20-30% range.

I think I'm over 50% on him by now. Maybe I'm gulping the kool aid. But he's got pocket awareness, keeps his eyes downfield, spots open guys, and makes pretty good decisions generally but with some rookie errors thrown in that I think are correctable. He throws the ball downfield, not just dink and dunk.

He's not the most accurate, but other than on vertical routes his balls are catchable.  His accuracy is far better than guys I have criticized like Osweiler, and better than I thought he was going to be back at the time he was drafted.  When he throws it away, he's often putting it where either no one can catch it, or only his guy is.

The one big flaw he has right now is there are times he either needs to bail on the play earlier, or just take the sack. He's gotten away with throwing it away a few times that are going to include a few picks if repeated too much. And he's still not quite adjusted to the speed of NFL secondaries sometimes.

Edited by GregR

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15 hours ago, TwinTurbo said:

Wow. Just one game. But wow.

Do you feel better about it now? 

Remember how good RG3 looked his rookie year?

Worst case scenario is that he looks good enough to keep Rick Smith around another year and then gets figured out as a 2nd year player. Best case scenario is that he is a real franchise QB, but... then we're still stuck with Rick Smith, a terrible OL, and no draft picks to fix it. :kicksrock:I see no light at the end of the tunnel! :(

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4 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

Remember how good RG3 looked his rookie year?

Worst case scenario is that he looks good enough to keep Rick Smith around another year and then gets figured out as a 2nd year player. Best case scenario is that he is a real franchise QB, but... then we're still stuck with Rick Smith, a terrible OL, and no draft picks to fix it. :kicksrock:I see no light at the end of the tunnel! :(

So you are glass half empty guy. It's ok, I'm a Lions fan so I get it. But the dude just put up 5 TDs and led the way to a single game scoring record for Houston. If I was a Texans fan, I would be ecstatic. I've been watching Watson for a long time. He's the real deal and all he does is win. You guys hit the jackpot.

I think the big difference between RG3 and Watson, is that coaches had to significantly adjust the offense and all other personnel to allow RG3 to succeed. Whereas, Watson is the type of QB that can make everyone else better, not the other way around. 

Edited by TwinTurbo

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So what are we thinking about Watson? Just a guy or are we looking at the beginning of something special?

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12 minutes ago, JuniorNB said:

So what are we thinking about Watson? Just a guy or are we looking at the beginning of something special?

I tend to not get to high or low on a few good weeks (1 real good week), but if I had to vote on JAG vs. Special, id lean more toward the latter. 

in 1 league where I have Ryan on a bye, I'm bidding about 20% of my FAAB on him... and the way Ryan has been playing, I might end up starting Watson over him some weeks. In another league where I have Wilson, I'm debating using my #1 priority in him (and then possibly trading him or Wilson for a good RB/WR)

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I'm having a difficult time with where to rank Watson ROS. With Big Ben pooping the bed and Mariota hurt, I'm STRONGLY considering snagging him. Would I be nuts to do it? He reminds me a lot of Mariota as a dual threat. Ben is concerning me with all the weapons he has, and the rumors of retirement, I'm wondering if his head is in the game here.

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27 minutes ago, Scooby1974 said:

I'm having a difficult time with where to rank Watson ROS. With Big Ben pooping the bed and Mariota hurt, I'm STRONGLY considering snagging him. Would I be nuts to do it? He reminds me a lot of Mariota as a dual threat. Ben is concerning me with all the weapons he has, and the rumors of retirement, I'm wondering if his head is in the game here.

I would scoop him up if you can, all signs point to up. After the KC game the Texans schedule lightens up considerably. Their starting LT that is holding out has to report by week 8 or his contract tolls, once he reports he can only help a very shaky offensive line that Watson's mobility has made up for.

I'm a little mad I left him out there last week and its come back to bite me with Mariotta's injury, no way I get him in waivers in my redraft league today due to my late priority.

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9 minutes ago, Buckna said:

I would scoop him up if you can, all signs point to up. After the KC game the Texans schedule lightens up considerably. Their starting LT that is holding out has to report by week 8 or his contract tolls, once he reports he can only help a very shaky offensive line that Watson's mobility has made up for.

I'm a little mad I left him out there last week and its come back to bite me with Mariotta's injury, no way I get him in waivers in my redraft league today due to my late priority.

Would you dump Big Ben or Mariota? Both are muddling around and below average at this point.

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56 minutes ago, Scooby1974 said:

Would you dump Big Ben or Mariota? Both are muddling around and below average at this point.

Tough to say, I would lean towards dropping Mariota since we don't truly know the extent of his injury as well as a lot of his fantasy value comes from his legs. In my league I will be forced to keep Mariota as my other QB before I picked up Goff was Luck.

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1 hour ago, Scooby1974 said:

Would you dump Big Ben or Mariota? Both are muddling around and below average at this point.

I would keep Ben.  His home/road splits are a real thing (his stats are much better at home than on the road) and 3 of their 4 games have been on the road so far.  

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1 minute ago, Steeler said:

I would keep Ben.  His home/road splits are a real thing (his stats are much better at home than on the road) and 3 of their 4 games have been on the road so far.  

Ben has arguably the best RB and WR in the league, plus Bryant and an emerging slot WR....so that is the way I'm leaning. Plus Mariota is broken. Thanks for the perspective.

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29 minutes ago, ragone said:

Have watson and Winston, this week's decision is going to be hard.

Not really. Most weeks it will be. But i'd play Winston against a terrible New England defense in what looks to be a shoot out. Watson is playing against a tough Kansas City defense

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6 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Someone bid 60% FAAB on this guy in my league. Crazy. I had bid 4% lol. 

I don't think it's crazy.

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1 hour ago, ragone said:

Have watson and Winston, this week's decision is going to be hard.

you start Watson at home vs overrated KC def..NE has no playmakers on defense but they typically do well off a loss and usually theyll let opposing RBs run wild but they contain QBs fairly well in games like this..or their offense goes nuts and Gronk and the run game are on fire and Winston wont be able to catch up Tb loses time of possession by a wide margin, etc.could snowball..

just want to play devils advocate here

I didnt see anyrhing special with KC def against Cousins, Wentz, Brady..they give up plenty of yards..There were guys open all over the field for the Redskins.

if Washingtons def didnt jump offsides 17 times in a 4 min span they wouldve won the game.lol.that was atrocious. 

and washington doesnt run the ball or use many run plays but houston does.sets up the pass nicely.oh and Cousins is still running against that defense they couldnt stop him they wont stop Watson either. BB is better at circling the wagons than anybody. 

 

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I won him with my 55% bid and so excited to play him. I also own wentz and cousins

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1 hour ago, shadyridr said:

I won him with my 55% bid and so excited to play him. I also own wentz and cousins

I have the exact same three. You're going Watson this week over Wentz?  

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6 minutes ago, JuniorNB said:

I have the exact same three. You're going Watson this week over Wentz?  

Yes I didn't spend the big bucks to bench him

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