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RB Alex Collins, SEA (1 Viewer)

There needs to be a name for the affliction that fantasy owners have who think a player has achieved all their stats by the first quarter of a game...

 
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Boston said:
There needs to be a name for the affliction that fantasy owners have who think a player has achieved all their stats by the first quarter of a game...
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Priest Holmes Syndrome 

dude always seemed to rack up a decent games worth of points in the 1st quarter 

 
For those of us playing dynasty what are the odds he gets a shot to be the guy next year? West is most likely gone, they obviously will keep Woodhead or Allen or both? Both would be a nightmare for Collins owners, and then there is Kenneth Dixon, signing a free agent or a drafting a rookie rb in what looks to be another good rookie class. I ask because they seem to be balking at the idea of giving him a full workload most weeks, despite the fact he is clearly more talented than Allen.

 
Last 4 games:

67-265-2 & 12/9-52

Better than I expected given his perceived limited skill set, crowded backfield and curious coaching

 
Alex Collins rushed 16 times for 60 yards and one touchdown in the Ravens' 23-16, Week 12 win over the Texans on Monday night.

Collins' lone catch went for a loss of three yards, but he still led the team in total yards. The Ravens continue to be completely inept offensively, but the defense keeps winning them games. Buck Allen and Collins each scored rushing touchdowns in the first half, accounting for the team's only end-zone visits, while Justin Tucker kicked three field goals. Collins is getting the volume and has scored in back-to-back games, making him more palatable as an RB2/3 next week vs. Detroit.
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I had a decision whether to start Collins vs. Detroit or Alf Morris vs. WSH. Collins kinda made it easier for me tonight.

 
The Frankman said:
I had a decision whether to start Collins vs. Detroit or Alf Morris vs. WSH. Collins kinda made it easier for me tonight.
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Detroit's D-line is ranked 29th in the NFL, and they were gashed for 200+ by CLE and CHI. There might be 2 or 3 BAL RBs worthy of an RB2/Flex start next week.

Given that Collins is averaging 17 carries and 3 targets per game the last 5 weeks, he should be a high end RB2 / borderline RB1 next week. But I guarantee most X-spurts will have him in his typical 20-25 range.

 
zftcg said:
I'm keeping expectations in check. Houston run D is legit, and Woodhead's continued reintegration into the offense makes it a very unpredictable situation.

I'm hopelessly behind in this week's match-up, plus I own Woodhead, so what I want more than anything tonight is clarity going forward.
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I think I got what I was looking for. Sure, Woodhead's role could continue to grow as he gets reacclimated, and he could also dominate snaps in a game where Baltimore fell way behind, but it seems very clear the goal heading into a game is to get Collins his early-down touches, control the clock, and let the defense win it for them. Other than Week 14 at Pittsburgh, all of the Ravens' remaining games set up nicely for them to be able to do that (not to mention that he did manage to run for 82 yards in the first Steelers game this year).

 
Collins was awesome last night. Just came up a little short for me. If he had that TD instead of Buck Allen I'd be looking at playoffs... as it stands I'm kind of stuck. Sucks but what are you going to do? When your top 3 RBs drafted are Abdullah, Ajayi, and Crowell.... 6 months ago that looked pretty awesome. Now it looks pretty bad. Next year I'm going RB the first 4 or 5 rounds lol

 
msudaisy26 said:
For those of us playing dynasty what are the odds he gets a shot to be the guy next year? West is most likely gone, they obviously will keep Woodhead or Allen or both? Both would be a nightmare for Collins owners, and then there is Kenneth Dixon, signing a free agent or a drafting a rookie rb in what looks to be another good rookie class. I ask because they seem to be balking at the idea of giving him a full workload most weeks, despite the fact he is clearly more talented than Allen.
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I own him in two dynasty leagues and I think there's surely a possibility he enters next season as the lead back, especially if he keeps impressing. However you laid out the landmines in his way (although personally I don't put much stock into Dixon, Woodhead or Allen being huge obstacles). The draft of free agency could surely bring in a better option. I would sell if I got an offer I liked, but I'd take the chance and wait it out unless I got an offer that valued him as a young potentially productive back. 

 
msudaisy26 said:
For those of us playing dynasty what are the odds he gets a shot to be the guy next year? West is most likely gone, they obviously will keep Woodhead or Allen or both? Both would be a nightmare for Collins owners, and then there is Kenneth Dixon, signing a free agent or a drafting a rookie rb in what looks to be another good rookie class. I ask because they seem to be balking at the idea of giving him a full workload most weeks, despite the fact he is clearly more talented than Allen.
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As a Collins owner I would rather they keep what they have then add something solid in the draft...if he can't beat those guys out it just wasn't meant to be...Allen is OK but nothing special, Woodhead is more of a complimentary back and Dixon will be into his third year with nothing but question marks...I would be far more concerned about his future if they use an early pick...Baltimore has other holes to fill and if they use an early pick (or bring in a quality FA) on a RB that would be the sign they don't have faith in him...

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I own him in two dynasty leagues and I think there's surely a possibility he enters next season as the lead back, especially if he keeps impressing. However you laid out the landmines in his way (although personally I don't put much stock into Dixon, Woodhead or Allen being huge obstacles). The draft of free agency could surely bring in a better option. I would sell if I got an offer I liked, but I'd take the chance and wait it out unless I got an offer that valued him as a young potentially productive back. 
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Crowell is the kind of guy that CLE probably won't retain but would go to a division rival and make them pay.  I bet he ends up here or PIT if they don't capitulate to Bell.

 
Hankmoody said:
Crowell is the kind of guy that CLE probably won't retain but would go to a division rival and make them pay.  I bet he ends up here or PIT if they don't capitulate to Bell.
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Since I'm not a big Crowell fan that would likely not scare me off much - but it would surely hurt his perceived value. I think Collins is the better talent, but obviously depending on what they paid him (and me being wrong about talent level) Crowell being the feature back would surely be on the table.  

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I own him in two dynasty leagues and I think there's surely a possibility he enters next season as the lead back, especially if he keeps impressing. However you laid out the landmines in his way (although personally I don't put much stock into Dixon, Woodhead or Allen being huge obstacles). The draft of free agency could surely bring in a better option. I would sell if I got an offer I liked, but I'd take the chance and wait it out unless I got an offer that valued him as a young potentially productive back. 
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I don't think they are huge obstacles either, but I think all 4 of those backs will get touches and that will really hurt his production. 

 
BobbyLayne said:
The Frankman said:
I had a decision whether to start Collins vs. Detroit or Alf Morris vs. WSH. Collins kinda made it easier for me tonight.
Click to expand...
Detroit's D-line is ranked 29th in the NFL, and they were gashed for 200+ by CLE and CHI. There might be 2 or 3 BAL RBs worthy of an RB2/Flex start next week.

Given that Collins is averaging 17 carries and 3 targets per game the last 5 weeks, he should be a high end RB2 / borderline RB1 next week. But I guarantee most X-spurts will have him in his typical 20-25 range.
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FBGs slightly higher than expected (RB15/16 in full PPR), Harris Football has him RB28 stndrd RB29 PPR

 
Dr. Dan said:
Collins was awesome last night. Just came up a little short for me. If he had that TD instead of Buck Allen I'd be looking at playoffs... as it stands I'm kind of stuck. Sucks but what are you going to do? When your top 3 RBs drafted are Abdullah, Ajayi, and Crowell.... 6 months ago that looked pretty awesome. Now it looks pretty bad. Next year I'm going RB the first 4 or 5 rounds lol
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No, 6 months ago that looked pretty bad.

 
msudaisy26 said:
For those of us playing dynasty what are the odds he gets a shot to be the guy next year? West is most likely gone, they obviously will keep Woodhead or Allen or both? Both would be a nightmare for Collins owners, and then there is Kenneth Dixon, signing a free agent or a drafting a rookie rb in what looks to be another good rookie class. I ask because they seem to be balking at the idea of giving him a full workload most weeks, despite the fact he is clearly more talented than Allen.
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I don't know about odds, but Collins is playing himself into a starting role right now. If he keeps it up I can see him possibly keeping it long term into next season.

I would be mostly concerned about Dixon coming back healthy next year. I think he is a comparable talent to Collins.

Harbaugh seems to have a lot of love for Buck Allen. I don't really agree with that, but he is likely the Ravens head coach next year, so some form of time share should be expected as long as he is I think.

They haven't had a true feature RB since Ray Rice. I could see Collins earning himself that role if he keeps playing well, but I would guess odds are against it. They will likely still have some sort of time share.

 
msudaisy26 said:
I don't think they are huge obstacles either, but I think all 4 of those backs will get touches and that will really hurt his production. 
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I doubt all four backs would get touches. Personally I think Dixon's early career profile looks like a guy that will wash out of the league quickly (he'll add to the avergae career of a RB being two years statistic) and that onceWoodhead gets healthy this season he'll make Allen superflous and a minor part of the offense. I think one of the two would see passing game work next year. 

Collins is averaging 17 carries the last three weeks - I think that's fine and I could see a bit more passing game work in the future.

 With this said, I do agree that free agency or the draft could surely work against him.

 
shadyridr said:
I was gonna bench him at flex for Shepard but now with the Eli news not so sure. 
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I’d probably feel safer with Collins over the uncertainty in NY.  I’ll most likely swap my FLEX between Collins & D.Lewis several times in the next few days..  

 
I also think BAL's prevalent game script -- pounding the rock and maintaining clock/ball control and putting it on their D to shut down points for the other squad -- is also obviously really beneficial to Collins, and I see no change in that approach even against Stafford who can light things up.

 
I've started AC the last 2 weeks (and 3 out of 4) but not sure who I want to bench for him this week. Mixon has tough matchup coming off his breakout game, and Perine has back to back 100 yards rushing. He's clearly got the best matchup and I feel like I should start him again. Huge upside IMO.

 
Unless you’re loaded at RB...and very few people are at this point in the season - I don’t see how people are benching Collins. He’s earned weekly RB2 or at the very least a Flex spot. 

 
Starting Fournette/Howard/Perine over Collins in one league.

Starting Bell/Perine/Collins in another.

Wish I could start Collins in the first but Perine has been strong lately.

 
Efritch4 said:
Unless you’re loaded at RB...and very few people are at this point in the season - I don’t see how people are benching Collins. He’s earned weekly RB2 or at the very least a Flex spot. 
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I’m in a start 3 RB league with Ingram, L Murray, CMC, Collins, CJ Anderson and Martin. I’ve continually picked the wrong guys. 

May start Collins this week but I don’t know yet. 

 
I'm in a 16-team Start 2 RB league, with 2 Flex spots (WR/TE and WR/RB/TE).

I have Perine, Latavius Murray, Collins, Alf Morris, and just got Mike Davis on FAAB waivers. I'm 5-7 and in a win-and-get-help situation. Going with Perine, Murray, and Collins in my Flex.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
You should have played the lotto last weekend.

But just in case:

  • What is your prediction for Collins vs Detroit?
  • What will the Powerball number be?
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I think he disappoints a bit this week. Detroit will put up points and the stupid coaches will throw more. Plus West might be back, Woodhead is back and Allen isn't going anywhere. Less yards and only a slight shot at a score. I'll go for 12/47/0 and 3/17/0. Not dreadful in PPR but not up to much in standard. As for PB, too precious to share  :P

 
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