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RB Alex Collins, SEA (2 Viewers)

lol. I like Dixon more than Collins, but I also kinda liked West more than Dixon. Collins had a nice year though.

But with that said, I can name a lot of BAL RBs that have done well over the years.
That's not the part that made no sense to him. It was likely this line: "Not sold on Collins. Ravens have historically used their RBs well. Might just be a product of the system."

Collins remains in that system.

 
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I sold Collins in both leagues I owned him - not because I don't believe in him (I do) but because the deals made sense to me. In one league I had a lot of RB depth and wanted some young WRs so accepted an offer of Collins for the 1.11, and in the other McKinnon and the 1,10 came back to me in a larger package that involved Collins.

I think Collins should easily be the lead back in the committee - and he's a mini-Beast Mode type of runner that should pile up yards. His value is a little less in ppr leagues since the Ravens seem to like having a 3rd down type back mixed in, but he can catch the ball.

 
Picked him up for the 2.10 in a league I desperately needed a RB, right before the draft. I think the other owner figured Balt would draft a RB.  

 
Dr. Octopus said:
That's not the part that made no sense to him. It was likely this line: "Not sold on Collins. Ravens have historically used their RBs well. Might just be a product of the system."

Collins remains in that system.
Ah, I gotcha. I thought we were talking about his playing ability alone. If we are talking about his fantasy appeal, then he's solid. Could be beaten out by the guys that beat him out during the offseason last year though. That rarely happens to a #1 RB though.

 
Ah, I gotcha. I thought we were talking about his playing ability alone. If we are talking about his fantasy appeal, then he's solid. Could be beaten out by the guys that beat him out during the offseason last year though. That rarely happens to a #1 RB though.
You didn't realize we were discussing fantasy football on a fantasy football website? Common mistake.

Those guys did not beat Collins out in camp. He was released by the Seahawks at final cuts and signed to Raven's practice squad and was called up in middle of September.

 
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I have to think the Ravens brass learned from last season you don't win when handing the ball to less good running backs. Since Collins is the best they have,  I have faith they will use him the same way as the end of the season. He's one of the best backs in the whole league from what I've seen.

 
Cowboysfan8 said:
Same here. And I have no reason to believe it won't happen again
Exactly the reason why, while I'd love to see Collins get his shot to carry the full load (he ABSOLUTELY deserves it based on both eye test and actual performance), I think he's risky as anything but a flex until we actually see Harbaugh & Co. use him like they should.

It sucks, as I'd love him on my FF team, but I'd rather target a surer RB2 right now than go with Collins and the hopes that Harbaugh sees the light this year.

 
Harbs is damn good coach. That he's been winning these years with Flacco has his qb,  won a super bowl even, is a testament to that. This gives me confidence that he will make the best decision.

As far as a history of RBBC, idk about all that. He's used each of Jamaal Lewis, Ray Rice, and Justin Forsett as featured backs. Collins is better than at least Ray Rice and Justin Forsett. 

 
Harbs is damn good coach. That he's been winning these years with Flacco has his qb,  won a super bowl even, is a testament to that. This gives me confidence that he will make the best decision.

As far as a history of RBBC, idk about all that. He's used each of Jamaal Lewis, Ray Rice, and Justin Forsett as featured backs. Collins is better than at least Ray Rice and Justin Forsett. 
Do you believe that the "best decision" in this case is to give Collins control of the backfield, or that it's a better decision to stay RBBC?

Anyone with the level of football knowledge you are ascribing to Harbaugh would have seen, as all of us did, that Collins was the most dynamic back on his squad. This is no knock on West or Allen who performed decently when healthy last year, but from total stats alone, Collins was much more productive on both a YPC (4.59 to Allen's 3.86 and West's 3.54) and a YPR basis (8.13 to Allen's 5.43 -- West had 2 catches to Collins' 23 and Allen's 46 for an 11.5 YPR, which I think is a little skewed).

If Harbaugh is such a winning football genius, and he didn't recognize all last year that giving Collins the lion's share of carries was the right thing given his clearly better efficiency, what makes you think that he will right now?

The only reason I could think of was that Harbaugh and staff are way over cautious about fumbles -- Collins had just two fumbles lost last season in the run game, and another 2 after receptions that were not turned over. So if that's the only issue, and Collins has worked all off-season on it, maybe that gives them more confidence to hand Collins the reins.

But I don't think it's the case. I think Harbaugh likes the fact that he can rotate two backs who performed adequately -- Collins and Allen, and we'll see how Dixon comes back into the mix as well -- and like last year, will continue to do so.

We'll see.

 
Collins will not be a bell cow RB like some of the few stud bell cow backs left these days. There should be some form of split with Collins being the lead dog who can handle all 3 downs. IMO he should get about 80% of 1st and 2nd downs, about 30-40% of 3rd downs, and damn near all of the goal line looks. It was a total joke how they used Allen at the goal line last year.

I do think Harbough is a very good coach and will figure this out moving forward, the off season is pointing in that direction so far. I also think the fumble issue may be why he was brought along slowly and never got a fair shake at the goal line last year but hopefully the way he improved in this area will be enough to be given some slack now.

 
Do you believe that the "best decision" in this case is to give Collins control of the backfield, or that it's a better decision to stay RBBC?

Anyone with the level of football knowledge you are ascribing to Harbaugh would have seen, as all of us did, that Collins was the most dynamic back on his squad. This is no knock on West or Allen who performed decently when healthy last year, but from total stats alone, Collins was much more productive on both a YPC (4.59 to Allen's 3.86 and West's 3.54) and a YPR basis (8.13 to Allen's 5.43 -- West had 2 catches to Collins' 23 and Allen's 46 for an 11.5 YPR, which I think is a little skewed).

If Harbaugh is such a winning football genius, and he didn't recognize all last year that giving Collins the lion's share of carries was the right thing given his clearly better efficiency, what makes you think that he will right now?

The only reason I could think of was that Harbaugh and staff are way over cautious about fumbles -- Collins had just two fumbles lost last season in the run game, and another 2 after receptions that were not turned over. So if that's the only issue, and Collins has worked all off-season on it, maybe that gives them more confidence to hand Collins the reins.

But I don't think it's the case. I think Harbaugh likes the fact that he can rotate two backs who performed adequately -- Collins and Allen, and we'll see how Dixon comes back into the mix as well -- and like last year, will continue to do so.

We'll see.
Agreed. Harbaugh likes Buck Allen a lot more than I and perhaps a lot of us do. But its his call so I still see that being a frustrating obstacle to Collins owners in 2018.

 
Has Dixon done anything of note, on the NFL playing field, to garner any excitement?

i recall he was a "hot" rookie coming in but after that nothing but injuries and a suspension 

 
You didn't realize we were discussing fantasy football on a fantasy football website? Common mistake.

Those guys did not beat Collins out in camp. He was released by the Seahawks at final cuts and signed to Raven's practice squad and was called up in middle of September.
That's fair. But he got beat out by guys on another team.

And for what it's worth, it's good to point out team systems.

 
Has Dixon done anything of note, on the NFL playing field, to garner any excitement?

i recall he was a "hot" rookie coming in but after that nothing but injuries and a suspension 
Not really, but what I noticed earlier in the offseason when asked about the backs harbaugh brought up Dixon.

jan 9th

“Kenneth Dixon should be right in that conversation," Harbaugh said. "Kenneth has to take care of his business and be ready to go. I see him in here doing it all the time. Heck yeah, Kenneth Dixon is a big part of that conversation."

He hasn’t said publicly that Collins will be the starter, but why would you by May? I also wouldn’t rule out them bringing in someone to challenge for carries (Murray?). Also from the same article-

I'm looking to upgrade everything. You know that's how I'm going to answer the question," Harbaugh said. "Alex Collins has proven the fact that he can be a very good back in this league."

I suppose you can’t put too much stock in what coaches say in January. I don’t think Collins will suddenly start getting 20 touches a game (ravens limited his work) and if Dixon does see the field and is as good as some thought he would be he will start eating into his workload. Allen will still have a role, he’s a very underrated ppr back. 

 
Has Dixon done anything of note, on the NFL playing field, to garner any excitement?

i recall he was a "hot" rookie coming in but after that nothing but injuries and a suspension 
Also have to point out that, despite his suspensions and injury, the team has kept him around, and added no other depth. That may give you more confidence in Collins- and maybe it should. But I’d worry that the guy this staff drafted (4th?) believes in him and could earn work. 

 
That's fair. But he got beat out by guys on another team.

And for what it's worth, it's good to point out team systems.
What's Baltimore's "team system"? They've had five (very) different OCs in the last ten years - and John Harbaugh was a special teams coordinator before becoming a HC so it's not his offense.

 
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Over his last 9 games he had 19 touches/game (but at a sub 4.0 ypc) 6 TDs and 20 carries inside the 10.

Seems like Baltimore was comfortable with him as the lead back.

 
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What's Baltimore's "team system"? They've had five (very) different OCs in the last ten years - and John Harbaugh was a special teams coordinator before becoming a HC so it's not his offense.
By this logic, Belichik isn't very involved in the New England offense because he was a defensive coordinator.  :lmao:

 
One point that I keep seeing pointed out is that Dixon is signed for 2 years but Collins is only signed this year, and for the minimum possible contract. The talking heads keep giving off the impression that the Ravens coaching staff isn't enamored with Collins and wants someone else to be the feature back. But, that could be just BS talking points because it's the offseason, and we won't know until training camp.

That said, someone dropped Dixon in my league and I scooped him up for free, so I hope he gets more work.

 
By this logic, Belichik isn't very involved in the New England offense because he was a defensive coordinator.  :lmao:
It’s nothing like that at all actually.

I didn’t say he wasn’t involved in the offense at all either. I said it wasn’t his offensive system. In the last ten years Harbaugh has hired experienced veteran OCs that each had their own styles and systems: Morningwheig, Trestman, Kubiak, Caldwell and Cameron. They each had implemented their own systems.

Harbaugh isn’t a Jay Gruden, Andy Reid or Doug Pederson type who hire OCs that run the HC’s offenses and even calls the plays.

But keep laughing. They do say ignorance is bliss.

 
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One point that I keep seeing pointed out is that Dixon is signed for 2 years but Collins is only signed this year, and for the minimum possible contract. The talking heads keep giving off the impression that the Ravens coaching staff isn't enamored with Collins and wants someone else to be the feature back. But, that could be just BS talking points because it's the offseason, and we won't know until training camp.

That said, someone dropped Dixon in my league and I scooped him up for free, so I hope he gets more work.
It could very well work out better for Collins to go elsewhere, perhaps where his abilities are more appreciated. 

 
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It could very well work out better for Collins to go elsewhere, perhaps where his abilities are more appreciated. 
It could be the Ravens are taking a wait and see approach to paying the next big RB contract  No Ravens back since Rice has had success in back to back yrs  A physical yet elusive runner, Collins averaged 4.59 yards per carry. Of the backs with more than 200 carries, the only one who averaged more per attempt were Mark Ingram, Kareem Hunt and Todd Gurley.

http://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/275551/how-alex-collins-came-up-surprise-winner-in-ravens-draft

 
Collins secured the football. His biggest weakness was beat out of him. If he starts fumbling again all bets are off. Don’t forget how many TDS Allen vultured in early starts. If he is getting most goal line work that would go a long way.

 
What's Baltimore's "team system"? They've had five (very) different OCs in the last ten years - and John Harbaugh was a special teams coordinator before becoming a HC so it's not his offense.
The OL has usually been good, and during that time, it has been led by Yanda. They've always opened up good running lanes for their RBs.

And while coaches change, the culture might not. The Ravens are the 7th best franchise in terms of win %. Definitely a strong football culture over there.

 
With that said, I do like that Collins has patience, vision, and is pretty deliberate. Just not sold on him individually after one season. Gotta see it again.

 
And good BAL RBs during that past several seasons

Priest Holmes
Jamal Lewis
Ray Rice
Justin Forsett
Alex Collins

Then you got guys like West, Taliaferro, Dixon, Bernard Pierce, Bernard Scott, Buck Allen, Woodhead, and Juszczyk who have been effective at times.

Definitely a good system.

 
Finally, I'd like to clarify that even though there might be a good system in place, there are definitely players that are good and fit well within the system. Like the Cowboys got a good system, but Rookie Zeke > DeMarco > McFadden > Joseph Randle.

 
With that said, I do like that Collins has patience, vision, and is pretty deliberate. Just not sold on him individually after one season. Gotta see it again.
I would suggest reading the first few pages of this thread.

Alex Collins is not just a flash in the pan out of nowhere talent. He was very good in Arkansas and it was a surprise to a lot of us that he fell as far as he did in the draft. I thougt he was a better player than CJ Prosise who the Seahawks selected ahead of Collins in the 2016 draft and I still do.

The decision making process of the Seahawks is truly baffling. They have let go two very capable RB in Spencer Ware and Alex Collins who have proven to be worth playing at the NFL level when they themselves needed starting RB. Any objective observation of this should be that they really do not know what a good RB is. They got lucky with Lynch but have gotten in their own way since (as an aside this does not make me feel comfortable about their selection of Penny).

From my perspective I don't need to see him for another season to know he is a good RB and good enough to be a starter at the NFL level.

 
And good BAL RBs during that past several seasons

Priest Holmes
Jamal Lewis
Ray Rice
Justin Forsett
Alex Collins

Then you got guys like West, Taliaferro, Dixon, Bernard Pierce, Bernard Scott, Buck Allen, Woodhead, and Juszczyk who have been effective at times.

Definitely a good system.
Now we're going back 20+ years for Lewis and Holmes - before Harbaugh was even there?

Forsett had one pretty good season - Ray Rice was a tremendous talent, his success was not "system" related. The other guys you named were mostly bums who did nothing.

 
Now we're going back 20+ years for Lewis and Holmes - before Harbaugh was even there?

Forsett had one pretty good season - Ray Rice was a tremendous talent, his success was not "system" related. The other guys you named were mostly bums who did nothing.
I'd argue that anyone's success is somewhat system related. And yes, that includes Tom Brady.

And going back 20+ years shows you the kind of success they have had. That's their culture. And honestly, those are just the guys that I could remember off the top of my head. Looking at just 2010, I am no reminded of McClain and McGahee.

 
I would suggest reading the first few pages of this thread.

Alex Collins is not just a flash in the pan out of nowhere talent. He was very good in Arkansas and it was a surprise to a lot of us that he fell as far as he did in the draft. I thougt he was a better player than CJ Prosise who the Seahawks selected ahead of Collins in the 2016 draft and I still do.

The decision making process of the Seahawks is truly baffling. They have let go two very capable RB in Spencer Ware and Alex Collins who have proven to be worth playing at the NFL level when they themselves needed starting RB. Any objective observation of this should be that they really do not know what a good RB is. They got lucky with Lynch but have gotten in their own way since (as an aside this does not make me feel comfortable about their selection of Penny).

From my perspective I don't need to see him for another season to know he is a good RB and good enough to be a starter at the NFL level.
Yeah, Collins was good in college. Statistically, he did stuff that McFadden, Felix Jones, and Hillis didn't do (on an individual level at least). But college is one thing, the pros is another. The Steelers upgraded on defense this offseason, so let's see how he fares against them twice this year. Last year the Steelers were TURRIBLE on D, especially when Shazier went down.

 
I would suggest reading the first few pages of this thread.

Alex Collins is not just a flash in the pan out of nowhere talent. He was very good in Arkansas and it was a surprise to a lot of us that he fell as far as he did in the draft. I thougt he was a better player than CJ Prosise who the Seahawks selected ahead of Collins in the 2016 draft and I still do.

The decision making process of the Seahawks is truly baffling. They have let go two very capable RB in Spencer Ware and Alex Collins who have proven to be worth playing at the NFL level when they themselves needed starting RB. Any objective observation of this should be that they really do not know what a good RB is. They got lucky with Lynch but have gotten in their own way since (as an aside this does not make me feel comfortable about their selection of Penny).

From my perspective I don't need to see him for another season to know he is a good RB and good enough to be a starter at the NFL level.
One hundred percent agree on the quality of Alex Collins, and Spencer Ware, as RB talents. If anything it shows the Seahawks may be excellent evaluators of RB talent but simply made the wrong decision in letting Collins go (hence your point about decision making). I’m sure as Prosise sat on injured reserve, they wished they kept Collins, but perhaps that 3rd round investment played a role in letting Collins go. Alex also didn’t look so great in the preseason imo, especially compared to Chris Carson, but the light definitely turned on in Baltimore.

I think we can definitely call into question the decision making of their front office in general (where’s the investment in o-line over the years?), but I actually think they’ve proven to be fairly strong evaluators of talent at the position given the guys they’ve brought in since Lynch (Rawls, Prosise, Collins, Carson, and Davis off waivers; Ware got away and C-Mike had his moments and his “potential”). 

I’m neither a Seahawks homer nor a Penny truther (in fact I feel Rashaad carries plenty of risk, albeit most of this is the Seahawks situation rather than purely his talent).

 
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One hundred percent agree on the quality of Alex Collins, and Spencer Ware, as RB talents. If anything it shows the Seahawks may be excellent evaluators of RB talent but simply made the wrong decision in letting Collins go (hence your point about decision making). I’m sure as Prosise sat on injured reserve, they wished they kept Collins, but perhaps that 3rd round investment played a role in letting Collins go. Alex also didn’t look so great in the preseason imo, especially compared to Chris Carson, but the light definitely turned on in Baltimore.

I think we can definitely call into question the decision making of their front office in general (where’s the investment in o-line over the years?), but I actually think they’ve proven to be fairly strong evaluators of talent at the position given the guys they’ve brought in since Lynch (Rawls, Prosise, Collins, Carson, and Davis off waivers; Ware got away and C-Mike had his moments and his “potential”). 

I’m neither a Seahawks homer nor a Penny truther (in fact I feel Rashaad carries plenty of risk, albeit most of this is the Seahawks situation rather than purely his talent).
I do think there is an association between the lack of quality offensive line play and the type of RB they pursue. Because they are not giving their RB plus blocking, they may think they need RB who use power to win, players who can bring their own blocker and thats not really Collins game.

You are right though that they have drafted some quality RB with later round draft picks. The puzzling this however is that these RB haven't been successful with the Seahawks, they had to go to other teams to show what they were capable of, for example Spencer Ware, Alex Collins and Justin Forsett all day 3 picks who have had some success with other teams after leaving Seattle.

 
I do think there is an association between the lack of quality offensive line play and the type of RB they pursue. Because they are not giving their RB plus blocking, they may think they need RB who use power to win, players who can bring their own blocker and thats not really Collins game.

You are right though that they have drafted some quality RB with later round draft picks. The puzzling this however is that these RB haven't been successful with the Seahawks, they had to go to other teams to show what they were capable of, for example Spencer Ware, Alex Collins and Justin Forsett all day 3 picks who have had some success with other teams after leaving Seattle.
Similarly, with the drafting of Penny, we may not get to see what guys like Carson, Prosise, and Davis are truly capable of until they leave Seattle, a la Collins. And I agree with you, all three (albeit in limited snaps; even Prosise very briefly in 2016) succeeded in ways where they weren't overly reliant on line play. (How could they be, given the state of it?) That said, I wonder if, given his high elusive ranking (per PFF), Collins would have been capable behind the Seahawks line as well, had he been given the chance?

 
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Similarly, with the drafting of Penny, we may not get to see what guys like Carson, Prosise, and Davis are truly capable of until they leave Seattle, a la Collins. And I agree with you, all three (albeit in limited snaps; even Prosise very briefly in 2016) succeeded in ways where they weren't overly reliant on line play. (How could they be, given the state of it?) That said, I wonder if, given his high elusive ranking (per PFF), Collins would have been capable behind the Seahawks line as well, had he been given the chance?
From what I recall their issue with Collins was fumbling and pass protection. We will never know if he would have been successful or not because they didn't give him the chance, preferring Rawls and then Carson over him.

Seattles offensive line may be improved this year and they have changed offensive coordinator from Bevel as well.

 
I'm going to go on record as saying I think Collins has a very good year this year.  He's a steal in the 4th round of 12 man leagues.  

I'm planting my flag on this kid just like I did on Tyreek Hill last year.  I remember he was also a pretty polarizing figure on these boards about this time a year ago.  I only bring it up because the banter in this thread reminds me of the discussion on Hill's thread .  People seem to either fully believe or are completely convinced he'll lose carries to the likes of Dixon.

 
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Dixon has multiple injuries and multiple suspensions since entering the league, and Allen is JAG.  When Woodhead returned last year, Allen's targets went down, but Collins' went up.  After the week 10 bye, Collins had 31 targets, and Allen had 10.  

With no Woodhead, and a less than ideal WR group, Collins might present more PPR value than one might expect.  

Long term, he was a ERFA this offseason, and will be a RFA next year.  Ravens get him cheap this year and next.  Super long term, he'll be a UFA at that, and a young one.  He's younger than Jordan Wilkins, whom the Colts just drafted.  His long term fantasy outlook is a lot stronger than I thought. 

 
Haven't gotten a SNIFF for him from other teams, even RB needy ones...

People are sleeping on this cat, real hard. Which is fine by me, cuz I have NO plans of selling unless the offer was ridic

 
I think those who love Collins are swooning too hard based on his early returns and his detractors are probably too hard on him as well (although I don't really feel that there are too many people in here who are truly down on Collins).

He truly burst onto the scene in his first three games with 25 carries for 206 yards (8.24 ypc) but we all knew, or should have known, that he would have to regress if he ever got significant carries and that did happen.  But he was still pretty darn good.

On the surface you can contrast his first 7 games 80 carries 478 yards (6 ypc) or his first 106 carries for 561 yards (5.3 ypc) with his last 8 games 132 carries for 495 yards (3.75 ypc) and his last 106 carries for 412 yards (3.9 ypc) and come to the conclusion that not only did he regress but he regressed into a below average running back.

On the other hand you can compare his games with 15 or more carries (which is my loose threshold for moving on from a CoP back to a feature role) and see that in those 8 games he had 140 carries for 620 yards (4.4 ypc) to games where he had 13 or fewer carries (he did not have any games with only 14 carries) and see he had 72 carries for 353 yards (4.9 ypc) which is much less of a difference.

He had 8 games with 15 or more carries and in 4 of those he managed 4.93, 6.28, 5 & 6.67 ypc (66 carries, 382 yards for 5.8 ypc) and in 4 games he averaged 2.45, 3.75, 2.83 & 3.9 ypc (74 carries, 238 yards for 3.2 ypc).

It's a mixed bag but I think it demonstrates more positive than negative overall.  He had some down games, as do all RBs, but he showed that he can be a big producer on a high volume which is pretty much exactly what you want for a mid round fantasy pick (which he should be this year).

HOWEVER we must not forget that his biggest issue during his entire career, and the likely reason he was not a higher draft pick and was cut by Seattle is ball security.  Despite seeming to improve this season on his horrendous career fumble/touch ratio (I detailed that much earlier in this thread, it was something stupid like one fumble per 16 touches) he still fumbled four times on 235 touches which is still not good.  Many world class RBs have excelled with worse ball security issues but Collins has not proven him self to be elite enough out of the backfield to warrant that kind of commitment.  If he goes through a rough patch with ball security, IMO he hasn't done enough to guarantee that he will not be supplanted in the Ravens backfield.

 
Evan Silva‏Verified account @evansilva 1h1 hour ago

The sooner Lamar Jackson takes over as #Ravens QB, the better for Alex Collins. And Roman is one of the most respected run-game designers in the league. Marshal Yanda returns. This run game explodes whenever Lamar takes over

 
So I've got a question for Collins owners... if you were offered a 2019 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounder for Collins would you do it?
It depends on the actual value of the pick package.   3rd round pick is all but worthless... the player you add will probably not be worth more than the player you need to drop to get him and/or will probably be on the waiver wire after the draft since there is no consensus of value after about pick 20.  Is it a late, mid or early 1st and 2d?

I would probably rate Collins as being worth somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.4 to 1.6 in the 2019 draft.  If the pick package is worth that draft slot or more I might make the trade (if I dont need him to compete this year).

 

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