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RB Alex Collins, SEA (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Borden
- Start date
themeistersinger
Footballguy
Don't forget to check his schedule after the week 10 Bye - it's very favorable
Is it? He literally has not played 50% of the snaps in a single game this season. He's only outsnapped Allen in 2 of 7 games.
I like Collins, but I think Dixon is every bit as talented as him and won't give the job back if Collins fumbles it away. That said, I don't think he'll actually be able to win the job from Collins without an injury or fumble or something.
ATB
Footballguy
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Weren’t those the last 2 though?
Seems like his role is increasing.
I’ve got Melvin Gordon on the BYE, so I might be starting him this week - but I’ve also got Chubb, so...coin flip.
The problem is that the job Collins currently owns represents less than 50% of the snaps. I don't expect Dixon to push Collins under 40%, but even without Dixon around, Collins' role is borderline marginal for fantasy purposes. And that marginal role is in a tenuous balance. One fumble and Dixon could get his shot and not give it back.
I still like Collins, but where possible, I'd recommend grabbing Dixon a week or two before he comes back from the IR. People write him off due to injuries, but when he's healthy, he's a talented 3-down back.
No, week 4 and week 6. I would not think twice about starting Chubb over Collins.Weren’t those the last 2 though?
Seems like his role is increasing.
I’ve got Melvin Gordon on the BYE, so I might be starting him this week - but I’ve also got Chubb, so...coin flip.
https://www.lineups.com/nfl/snap-counts/running-back-rb-snap-counts
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That makes my banana sad also.I wish I had Chubb to start this week... I'm rolling with A. Collins and TJ Yeldon
i also have James White & Adrian Peterson in over Collins.
I’dlove to have this kind of depth in my other league behind Gurley/Ingram. Week 12 is gonna suck without Royce Freeman. I kinda wish I had Collins over there. :(
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BlueDredSo
Footballguy
Would you rather have Marlon Mack? I'm in a very short bench league (best ball, can only own 3 RBs, 2 start) I was so glad to get Collins with my 3rd rd pick but besides a couple games he's been completely underwhelming. So dependent on TDs because he just doesn't rack up yardage or catches. Mack's ceiling seems so much higher.
I think it's more likely that you've just seen the best game of Mack's career and will spend the rest of the season chasing points.
hamsterdam
Footballguy
How schedule after the bye is the only thing keeping me from trying to ship him off in a trade. Hopefully my patience pays off.
WOW.
Just looked at the schedule. This is just incredible:
* CIN
* OAK
* @ATL
* @KC
* TB
* @LAC
Outside of LAC (that will have Bosa back) that is creampuff city.
If I didn't already have him I'd be trying to buy...real low.
(Think I'll be hanging onto my smokey Brown as well).
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I hope you're right, but I'm skeptical. Even in a juicy match up, Harbs still plays the coach and Morty still calls the plays.kyoun1e said:
jm192
Footballguy
It's tough in terms of what to do/expect with the guy.
I thought he'd get at least 250 carries and 20 to 30 catches. I though the potential for 300+ touches was there. It's the Ravens. They're always a tough physical team. Crabtree and Jon Brown won't make them throw it 40 times a game. Oops.
He doesn't help himself. Even this past week. Find the end-zone. Fumble the football.
The schedule definitely opens up, and I think you about have to hold him because of it. That said--is he the long-term answer at RB in Baltimore? Dynasty wise, I'd love to move him. But easier said than done
I thought he'd get at least 250 carries and 20 to 30 catches. I though the potential for 300+ touches was there. It's the Ravens. They're always a tough physical team. Crabtree and Jon Brown won't make them throw it 40 times a game. Oops.
He doesn't help himself. Even this past week. Find the end-zone. Fumble the football.
The schedule definitely opens up, and I think you about have to hold him because of it. That said--is he the long-term answer at RB in Baltimore? Dynasty wise, I'd love to move him. But easier said than done
themeistersinger
Footballguy
One other thing - according to NextGen stats, Alex Collins has seen 8 or more in the box 38.78% of the time, second only to Royce Freeman, who has seen it 54.93% of the time (yikes)!
If the Ravens can spread things out a little more with Collins on the field, that will surely help. And the soft schedule also helps.
Obviously I'm disappointed in him so far this season, especially for a fourth round pick, but I am holding past the Bye if at all possible.
If the Ravens can spread things out a little more with Collins on the field, that will surely help. And the soft schedule also helps.
Obviously I'm disappointed in him so far this season, especially for a fourth round pick, but I am holding past the Bye if at all possible.
themeistersinger
Footballguy
In PPR I think I would prefer Drake, in standard I'd prefer Collins.papacapps said:
Interseptopus
Footballguy
benching in favor of doug martin
NeverEnough
Footballguy
I wonder what other RBs I can trade him for...papacapps said:
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
ATB
Footballguy
What's funny is it's very simple to ascertain why this is the case for these two particular RBs: they don't use them in passing situations.themeistersinger said:
I cannot, for the life of me, understand why modern day coaches haven't caught-on to the obviousness of trotting out different RBs for different situations and how that signals the play-type to defensive coordinators.
When Collins and Freeman are on the field, you know it's a run play, by-and-large.
But when Lindsay and Buck Allen are on the field, you guard against the pass.
Thus, the box is stacked for Collins and Freeman and not for pass-catching counterparts.
TripleThreat
Footballguy
DNP in Thursday practice.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
He's my last
healthy, under contract RB I have left!
TheFanatic
Footballguy
I should also say, not on bye.
Anyone think that them trading for TyMo was because there is something seriously wrong with Collins foot that the team isn't letting on to? Maybe he's going to be out long term but the team isn't tipping their hand much yet before the Pitt game outside of just reporting on the normal injury report? Could TyMo possibly be a replacement for Collins who might have more serious of an injury.
Conan Troutman
Footballguy
Eh, he's pretty mediocre between the tackles, I highly doubt that's the plan. He's certainly a much more talented 3rd down back than Allen (how much Harbaugh will trust him is an entirely different question of course) and could fill in for Collins for a game or two, but staying healthy hasn't exactly been his forte either. I wouldn't worry about Collins' health or carries, but there goes probably any hope of Collins becoming a consistent part of the passing game this season.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
the ravens are 4-4 and it's one game not the superbowl. no need for foil hats week 9. GB wanted to get rid of a problem rb at all costs, which is why they only got a 7th. Baltimore saw a good deal.
It likely spells Baltimore moving on from Collins. Ty is probably cheaper to resign and might allow them to tread water in the meantime while they figure out a long term rb.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don't think you can draw this conclusion. I could surely see Baltimore moving on from Collins after free agency or the draft but not because they traded a 7th round pick for Montgomery.Dr. Dan said:
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I'm not saying they're going with Ty over Collins in 2019. Ty is a free agent and isnt much more than JAG. I'm just saying they recognized a need for some help, which doesnt bode well for their confidence in Collins beyond 2018, since they seem to be moving more toward a RBBC approach by this trade. granted it's not a big investment and Ty would threaten Buck more than Collibs
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It possible they were adding depth and/or looking to upgrade Buck Allen. I still don’t think this move says anything about Collins’ future with the team - although I do agree he may very well be replaced during the offseason.
Team Smokin'
Footballguy
Nobody seems to like Collins (lol). I targeted him on Blooms advice for a strong RB 2. While 5 rushing TD and 1 receiving TD is nice and perhaps he could double that for the ROS, yet still... it's like walking on egg shells. The yards and usage / flow is downright scary. Nobody wants him in any kind of trade. Now the questionable call. I'm not concerned about Ty. Ty is more of a pass catching RB / gadget player. I would think Buck Allen takes a hit. And I wouldn't infer that BAL is moving on from Collins. He's serviceable. Yes, every team is looking to improve and every player gets evaluated. Collins kinda at a crossroads?
On a positive note I see BUY low as his schedule looks very favorable, I mean juicy moving forward. Just not sure about this week? As soon as I think about wanting to trade him, his schedule coming up tells me - He's a Hold!
On a positive note I see BUY low as his schedule looks very favorable, I mean juicy moving forward. Just not sure about this week? As soon as I think about wanting to trade him, his schedule coming up tells me - He's a Hold!
Team Smokin'
Footballguy
Synthesizer
Footballguy
Hasn't reached 50% of the snaps in any of the 8 games. Hasn't reached 100 yards in any of the 8 games. Only value he provides is a high touchdown rate. Not much to see here.
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
Anyone who's watched the Ravens play knows it's crystal clear that not only is Collins the best runner on the roster, he's also an above average RB in general. He's not a fluid pass catcher and the Ravens seem to like having a true pass catching RB, which will always hit his value. But there's little reason as to why he isn't fed the ball, because Flacco isn't going to carry the team. I know he "fumbled" last week, but he was hit 6 yards in the backfield while taking the handoff... not entirely on him.
That said, he's dominated RB touches the last few weeks and as the weather gets worse, his role should in theory increase. We saw what he can do already.
What kind of value is he being bought or sold for right now? I can see a justification to do either of them. I own him in one league and I'd love to sell him, but I do worry that with that schedule and a team with a strong defense, he could end up with more usage and a very nice 2nd half. Of course, he also could end up in a 3 player RBBC.
That said, he's dominated RB touches the last few weeks and as the weather gets worse, his role should in theory increase. We saw what he can do already.
What kind of value is he being bought or sold for right now? I can see a justification to do either of them. I own him in one league and I'd love to sell him, but I do worry that with that schedule and a team with a strong defense, he could end up with more usage and a very nice 2nd half. Of course, he also could end up in a 3 player RBBC.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I guess i don't see what you're seeing.
He's got 98 rushes for 358 yards, good for 3.6 per carry. That's an average of 12 carries for 45 yards per game. In 4 of his games he had less than 45 yards and 4 he has more, with a high water mark of 68 yards a month ago.
The last few weeks he's got 19 for 58 (3.1 yards per carry), 11 for 38 (3.4) and 11 for 49 (4.4). That's 41 carries at 3.3 yards per carry. I suppose he's increased his pace from 12 carries for 45 to 14 carries for 48 yards during that stretch.
His receiving hasn't increased. He started with 1, 3, 3, 1 receptions for 70 yards and he has 1, 0, 3 and 2 receptions for 31 yards since.
His total yards per game is 57 yards - pace for a little over 900 total yards on the season - and he's had 54, 48 and 63 total yards the last 3 weeks. (That's 55 yards per game.) It was 66 and 45 the weeks before that. (55.5 yards per game.)
The one thing he does have is 3 touchdowns the last 3 games. He has 6 total touchdowns on the season.
Buck Allen has 30 catches, 288 total yards and 5 touchdowns, compared with 11 for 459 and 6 for Collins. In ppr that's 88.8 vs 92.9 points. They're both just filler.
The ravens just traded for a running back. He's been a total bust in any scoring system.
If you have anyone interested in trading for him, get what you can imo.
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
I'm too lazy to look it up, but Collins has far out-touched Allen over the last few weeks in a way that he wasn't earlier in the year. I'm not saying he's performed great or been fantasy relevant aside from the TDs, and I think that has to do with a limited workload.
They didn't go out and get a between the tackles runner, they got a receiver who's more explosive than Allen. A better, more versatile complimentary RB at almost no cost. If they had signed a bruising RB, I'd say that was an indication that they're moving on from Collins, but that's not what they did. They clearly didn't like the idea of giving Allen any real carries, and I can't imagine Montgomery being a threat to those carries either. Montgomery might also be an indication of their thoughts on the reliability of Dixon coming back.
The question to me is whether or not the Ravens shift from being so pass-happy to giving Collins more activity running the ball. He needs more than 11 or 12 carries per game, and the Ravens need to give him more carries than that if they want any chance to make a run in the second half.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I cant play him. I can't trade him. I cant cut him.
Awesome.
Awesome.
Team Smokin'
Footballguy
Pretty much, but with the bye week it looks like he plays this week for Team Smokin'. I still like the schedule coming up. Be nice to get a nice showing this week - like 15 rushes 80 yards / 4 catches for 36 yards and two scores. It could happen, but so could 12 rushes for 44 yards, 2 catches for 14 yards - that's how the ship sinks in fantasy.
bostonfred
Footballguy
But that's the thing - i just did look it up. Collins workload hasn't increased. Allen's has gone down, but Collins' has been mostly unchanged, and he isn't doing well with the work they've given him.
2016 31 rushes for 125 yards, cut by Seattle
2017 first 8 games 80 carries for 478 (avg 11 carries at 6 yards per carry)
2017 last 8 games 132 for 495 yards (avg 17 carries at 3.8 ypc)
2018 first 8 games 98 rushes for 358 yards (avg 12 carries at 3.6 ypc)
It seems pretty likely at this point that the good games early last year were the outlier.
