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Alex Collins - RB - Ravens

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33 minutes ago, The Dude said:

Even with the easy schedule he's going to have to do something before I put him in the lineup.

Nice of you to have better options, even on a major bye week.

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Hasn't reached 50% of the snaps in any of the 8 games.  Hasn't reached 100 yards in any of the 8 games.  Only value he provides is a high touchdown rate.  Not much to see here.

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Anyone who's watched the Ravens play knows it's crystal clear that not only is Collins the best runner on the roster, he's also an above average RB in general. He's not a fluid pass catcher and the Ravens seem to like having a true pass catching RB, which will always hit his value. But there's little reason as to why he isn't fed the ball, because Flacco isn't going to carry the team. I know he "fumbled" last week, but he was hit 6 yards in the backfield while taking the handoff... not entirely on him.

That said, he's dominated RB touches the last few weeks and as the weather gets worse, his role should in theory  increase. We saw what he can do already.

What kind of value is he being bought or sold for right now? I can see a justification to do either of them. I own him in one league and I'd love to sell him, but I do worry that with that schedule and a team with a strong defense, he could end up with more usage and a very nice 2nd half. Of course, he also could end up in a 3 player RBBC.

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11 minutes ago, Steelers4Life said:

Anyone who's watched the Ravens play knows it's crystal clear that not only is Collins the best runner on the roster, he's also an above average RB in general. He's not a fluid pass catcher and the Ravens seem to like having a true pass catching RB, which will always hit his value. But there's little reason as to why he isn't fed the ball, because Flacco isn't going to carry the team. I know he "fumbled" last week, but he was hit 6 yards in the backfield while taking the handoff... not entirely on him.

That said, he's dominated RB touches the last few weeks and as the weather gets worse, his role should in theory  increase. We saw what he can do already.

What kind of value is he being bought or sold for right now? I can see a justification to do either of them. I own him in one league and I'd love to sell him, but I do worry that with that schedule and a team with a strong defense, he could end up with more usage and a very nice 2nd half. Of course, he also could end up in a 3 player RBBC.

I guess i don't see what you're seeing.  

He's got 98 rushes for 358 yards, good for 3.6 per carry.  That's an average of 12 carries for  45 yards per game.  In 4 of his games he had less than 45 yards and 4 he has more, with a high water mark of 68 yards a month ago.  

The last few weeks he's got 19 for 58 (3.1 yards per carry), 11 for 38 (3.4) and 11 for 49 (4.4).  That's 41 carries at 3.3 yards per carry.  I suppose he's increased his pace from 12 carries for 45 to 14 carries for 48 yards during that stretch.

His receiving hasn't increased.  He started with 1, 3, 3, 1 receptions for 70 yards and he has 1, 0, 3 and 2 receptions for 31 yards since.  

His total yards per game is 57 yards - pace for a little over 900 total yards on the season - and he's had 54, 48 and 63 total yards the last 3 weeks.  (That's 55 yards per game.) It was 66 and 45 the weeks before that.  (55.5 yards per game.)

The one thing he does have is 3 touchdowns the last 3 games.  He has 6 total touchdowns on the season.  

Buck Allen has 30 catches, 288 total yards and 5 touchdowns,  compared with 11 for 459 and 6 for Collins.  In ppr that's 88.8 vs 92.9 points.  They're both just filler.

The ravens just traded for a running back.  He's been a total bust in any scoring system. 

If you have anyone interested in trading for him, get what you can imo. 

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2 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

I guess i don't see what you're seeing.  

He's got 98 rushes for 358 yards, good for 3.6 per carry.  That's an average of 12 carries for  45 yards per game.  In 4 of his games he had less than 45 yards and 4 he has more, with a high water mark of 68 yards a month ago.  

The last few weeks he's got 19 for 58 (3.1 yards per carry), 11 for 38 (3.4) and 11 for 49 (4.4).  That's 41 carries at 3.3 yards per carry.  I suppose he's increased his pace from 12 carries for 45 to 14 carries for 48 yards during that stretch.

His receiving hasn't increased.  He started with 1, 3, 3, 1 receptions for 70 yards and he has 1, 0, 3 and 2 receptions for 31 yards since.  

His total yards per game is 57 yards - pace for a little over 900 total yards on the season - and he's had 54, 48 and 63 total yards the last 3 weeks.  (That's 55 yards per game.) It was 66 and 45 the weeks before that.  (55.5 yards per game.)

The one thing he does have is 3 touchdowns the last 3 games.  He has 6 total touchdowns on the season.  

Buck Allen has 30 catches, 288 total yards and 5 touchdowns,  compared with 11 for 459 and 6 for Collins.  In ppr that's 88.8 vs 92.9 points.  They're both just filler.

The ravens just traded for a running back.  He's been a total bust in any scoring system. 

If you have anyone interested in trading for him, get what you can imo. 

I'm too lazy to look it up, but Collins has far out-touched Allen over the last few weeks in a way that he wasn't earlier in the year.  I'm not saying he's performed great or been fantasy relevant aside from the TDs, and I think that has to do with a limited workload.

They didn't go out and get a between the tackles runner, they got a receiver who's more explosive than Allen. A better, more versatile complimentary RB at almost no cost. If they had signed a bruising RB, I'd say that was an indication that they're moving on from Collins, but that's not what they did. They clearly didn't like the idea of giving Allen any real carries, and I can't imagine Montgomery being a threat to those carries either. Montgomery might also be an indication of their thoughts on the reliability of Dixon coming back.

The question to me is whether or not the Ravens shift from being so pass-happy to giving Collins more activity running the ball.  He needs more than 11 or 12 carries per game, and the Ravens need to give him more carries than that if they want any chance to make a run in the second half.

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6 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I cant play him. I can't trade him. I cant cut him. 

 

Awesome. 

Pretty much, but with the bye week it looks like he plays this week for Team Smokin'. I still like the schedule coming up. Be nice to get a nice showing this week - like 15 rushes 80 yards / 4 catches for 36 yards and two scores. It could happen, but so could 12 rushes for 44 yards, 2 catches for 14 yards - that's how the ship sinks in fantasy. 

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39 minutes ago, Steelers4Life said:

I'm too lazy to look it up, but Collins has far out-touched Allen over the last few weeks in a way that he wasn't earlier in the year.  I'm not saying he's performed great or been fantasy relevant aside from the TDs, and I think that has to do with a limited workload.

But that's the thing - i just did look it up.  Collins workload hasn't increased. Allen's has gone down, but Collins' has been mostly unchanged, and he isn't doing well with the work they've given him.

2016 31 rushes for 125 yards, cut by Seattle

2017 first 8 games 80 carries for 478 (avg 11 carries at 6 yards per carry)

2017 last 8 games 132 for 495 yards (avg 17 carries at 3.8 ypc)  

2018 first 8 games 98 rushes for 358 yards (avg 12 carries at 3.6 ypc)

It seems pretty likely at this point that the good games early last year were the outlier.

 

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48 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I cant play him. I can't trade him. I cant cut him. 

 

Awesome. 

Normally I can’t...with Mack and DJ on byes I likely will.  Have Michel on hold but then it comes down to flexing Collins or Ridley.

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Quote

Alex Collins - RB -  Ravens

Alex Collins (foot) is expected to play in Week 9 against the Steelers.

Collins was a full participant in practice Friday and seems good to go for Sunday. It's still a nightmarish spot since the Ravens will be without starting tackles Ronnie Stanley (ankle, out) and James Hurst (ankle, out) in the team's debut of its new three-headed backfield committee. Note that Collins hadn't played 50% of Baltimore's snaps in any game prior to Ty Montgomery joining the team.

Source: Jason La Canfora on Twitter 

Nov 3 - 4:39 PM

 

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1 hour ago, sho nuff said:

Normally I can’t...with Mack and DJ on byes I likely will.  Have Michel on hold but then it comes down to flexing Collins or Ridley.

I benched him for Martin ?‍♂️

I wasnt convinced he would be healthy enough and the matchup is terrible. 

Collins was my rb3 until I grabbed Chubb. Barkley and Mixon on bye, so I went with Chubb and Martin. I'm likely going to lose but I'm okay with that

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3 hours ago, bostonfred said:

I guess i don't see what you're seeing.  

He's got 98 rushes for 358 yards, good for 3.6 per carry.  That's an average of 12 carries for  45 yards per game.  In 4 of his games he had less than 45 yards and 4 he has more, with a high water mark of 68 yards a month ago.  

The last few weeks he's got 19 for 58 (3.1 yards per carry), 11 for 38 (3.4) and 11 for 49 (4.4).  That's 41 carries at 3.3 yards per carry.  I suppose he's increased his pace from 12 carries for 45 to 14 carries for 48 yards during that stretch.

His receiving hasn't increased.  He started with 1, 3, 3, 1 receptions for 70 yards and he has 1, 0, 3 and 2 receptions for 31 yards since.  

His total yards per game is 57 yards - pace for a little over 900 total yards on the season - and he's had 54, 48 and 63 total yards the last 3 weeks.  (That's 55 yards per game.) It was 66 and 45 the weeks before that.  (55.5 yards per game.)

The one thing he does have is 3 touchdowns the last 3 games.  He has 6 total touchdowns on the season.  

Buck Allen has 30 catches, 288 total yards and 5 touchdowns,  compared with 11 for 459 and 6 for Collins.  In ppr that's 88.8 vs 92.9 points.  They're both just filler.

The ravens just traded for a running back.  He's been a total bust in any scoring system. 

If you have anyone interested in trading for him, get what you can imo. 

Well, he ranks 19 at RB in a half point PPR.

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3 hours ago, bostonfred said:

But that's the thing - i just did look it up.  Collins workload hasn't increased. Allen's has gone down, but Collins' has been mostly unchanged, and he isn't doing well with the work they've given him.

That's the point. They've gone pass happy, and that can't continue. If they want to win, they need to run, and they have to know that. They also have to know that Collins is far and away their best runner and Montgomery doesn't change that.

Something's gotta give. EIther they have Flacco pass 40+ times a game and keep losing or they have to start running Collins more when the schedule gets lighter and the weather gets worse.

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13 hours ago, Steelers4Life said:

That's the point. They've gone pass happy, and that can't continue. If they want to win, they need to run, and they have to know that. They also have to know that Collins is far and away their best runner and Montgomery doesn't change that.

Something's gotta give. EIther they have Flacco pass 40+ times a game and keep losing or they have to start running Collins more when the schedule gets lighter and the weather gets worse.

How much of Collins underperformance is due to the offensive line? I know there's a couple of new injuries this week.

That's what has baffled me all year. Preseason, all the talk was, Yanda is coming back, Collins should roll. And there's been no roll all year. Now new offensive line injuries. 

Not sure the whole thing can be pinned on Collins. And I bet Harbaugh knows that.

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"According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, the Ravens haven't ruled out a midseason coaching change."  This just popped up on Rotoworld.  While I wish no ill will upon the Harbaugh family, this would have to be good news for Collins if it happened.  This game may be make or break...

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8 minutes ago, ChuckLiddell said:

"According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, the Ravens haven't ruled out a midseason coaching change."  This just popped up on Rotoworld.  While I wish no ill will upon the Harbaugh family, this would have to be good news for Collins if it happened.  This game may be make or break...

They got new WR talent and thought that all of a sudden Flacco could lead a passing led offense. They got away from what could've made them successful, and thats running to set up the pass, not the other way around. It's not like Collins is losing carries to other guys... They just aren't running it enough.

The thing is, on the road against the Steelers without both starting tackles isnt the best time to recommit to the run.

I still believe Collins is an above average runner. They've just gotten away from it and despite having a dominant defense and a solid QB whos not making mistakes, they're only 4-4. Something has to chage there.

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Starting Ingram over him today.  Not so much a knock on Collins (I play in TD heavy league), but I like the matchups better.

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3 minutes ago, Thomas The Skank Engine said:

Warning: I have to start him today.  Expect nothing.  Bench him if you can.

LOL - he's active today. Has a potential nice match ups for the second half for a RB #2. I still don't get too excited as I am trying to trade him before today's game. Offering Cooks & Collins for J White. Both win win. He's in at least one line up today though. prolly two ? 

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Ty Montgomery is inactive today that should help (ESPN reporting)

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Same story, different day. He looked very good running the ball today, and he got 9 of the 11 RB carries in the game.  That's right, 11. He looked good and got the carry from the 1 yard line too, which was a TD. I think he caught a pass or two and had one nice reception called back on a penalty.

Flacco threw the ball 37 times against a great pass rush. Jackson ran it 5 times, and the Ravens as a team ran it 16 in total. 

I have no idea why the Ravens think they're an explosive passing offense now. At 4-5, something's gotta give there. There could be a nice pay-off for anyone who sticks with him or trades for him if the game-plan becomes more balanced.

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17 minutes ago, Steelers4Life said:

Same story, different day. He looked very good running the ball today, and he got 9 of the 11 RB carries in the game.  That's right, 11. He looked good and got the carry from the 1 yard line too, which was a TD. I think he caught a pass or two and had one nice reception called back on a penalty.

Flacco threw the ball 37 times against a great pass rush. Jackson ran it 5 times, and the Ravens as a team ran it 16 in total. 

I have no idea why the Ravens think they're an explosive passing offense now. At 4-5, something's gotta give there. There could be a nice pay-off for anyone who sticks with him or trades for him if the game-plan becomes more balanced.

It seems to just be terrible offensive philosphy/play calling to keep having Flacco throw so much.

The TD saved it...and with all the bye weeks, thats a nice day for Collins getting lucky to have that PI putting the ball at the one for him.

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Hard to trust him, that's just an awfully low weekly floor with barely double digit touches and their insistance to trout out Jackson makes it just a mess right now. Hopefully Harbaugh realizes that glaring imbalance on his team during self scouting over the bye. 

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Yeah I had to start this guy because of a bunch of players on bye but this will hopefully be the last time I need to start him.  

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16 minutes ago, fred_1_15301 said:

Yeah I had to start this guy because of a bunch of players on bye but this will hopefully be the last time I need to start him.  

Feel about the same.  Probably the last week I will be this desperate in the league I have him.  (Of course, in ones I don't my options are worse :yucky:)

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On 11/4/2018 at 8:11 PM, Conan Troutman said:

Hard to trust him, that's just an awfully low weekly floor with barely double digit touches and their insistance to trout out Jackson makes it just a mess right now. Hopefully Harbaugh realizes that glaring imbalance on his team during self scouting over the bye. 

I think he is a buy low with a cupcake upcoming schedule....

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1 hour ago, NeverEnough said:

I want off this ride. Offered him for Guice in dynasty. Guice owner is stacked at RB, though...

Poor offer IMO.

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3 hours ago, JIMGET said:

I think he is a buy low with a cupcake upcoming schedule....

Until you see some dedication to him running the ball, the schedule may not matter

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1 hour ago, The Dude said:

Until you see some dedication to him running the ball, the schedule may not matter

Or Lamar Jackson takes over. 

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13 hours ago, The Dude said:

Until you see some dedication to him running the ball, the schedule may not matter

Agreed, flacco chucking it 45 times a game isn't getting it done....

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Don’t trust Harbaugh one bit to use Collins the right way and that would be to give him 20 carries a game. Harbaugh has that slug Flacco airing it out 40 times a game. Has Buck Allen and now TyMo in the mix. Collins in my opinion is a great runner and a good receiver out of the backfield. I thought I was set with a solid upside #2 rb when I took him in the 4th rd. He’s totally TD dependent to get us any weekly pts with his lack of touches. He’ll be on my bench next week for Riddick in a ppr league when Chubb is on a bye. Man was I wrong about Harbaugh. 

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3 hours ago, conlilnew said:

Don’t trust Harbaugh one bit to use Collins the right way and that would be to give him 20 carries a game. Harbaugh has that slug Flacco airing it out 40 times a game. Has Buck Allen and now TyMo in the mix. Collins in my opinion is a great runner and a good receiver out of the backfield. I thought I was set with a solid upside #2 rb when I took him in the 4th rd. He’s totally TD dependent to get us any weekly pts with his lack of touches. He’ll be on my bench next week for Riddick in a ppr league when Chubb is on a bye. Man was I wrong about Harbaugh. 

well, now his job is on the line...sometimes that provides motivation.

 

Why Baltimore doesn't just pound the ball and play defense is beyond me.  Chucking it 45 times is not complimentary to this defense...it's hurting them on both ends.

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3 hours ago, conlilnew said:

Don’t trust Harbaugh one bit to use Collins the right way and that would be to give him 20 carries a game. Harbaugh has that slug Flacco airing it out 40 times a game. Has Buck Allen and now TyMo in the mix. Collins in my opinion is a great runner and a good receiver out of the backfield. I thought I was set with a solid upside #2 rb when I took him in the 4th rd. He’s totally TD dependent to get us any weekly pts with his lack of touches. He’ll be on my bench next week for Riddick in a ppr league when Chubb is on a bye. Man was I wrong about Harbaugh. 

The situation is no different than in a few other cities (Green Bay/Jones, Philly to a lesser extent with their RBs) -- it's really kind of foolish to expect all of a sudden the coach will utilize the players differently than he has all along.

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Anyone else liking him this week? Great match-up at home vs. a porous D. Does Lamar starting help him? I'm probably starting him over Dalvin Cook.

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1 minute ago, Man In The Box said:

Anyone else liking him this week? Great match-up at home vs. a porous D. Does Lamar starting help him? I'm probably starting him over Dalvin Cook.

He's a DFS start today for me and another start in a season long league. I expect a decent game and hopefully low ownership. Would love to see a few bust out long runs too!

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6 minutes ago, Man In The Box said:

Anyone else liking him this week? Great match-up at home vs. a porous D. Does Lamar starting help him? I'm probably starting him over Dalvin Cook.

Well, we know Jackson won’t be chucking it 45 times today. However, I think he will vulture a TD on the ground.  Overall, I think this has to upgrade Collins based on volume alone.

 

Edited by Blick
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On 11/7/2018 at 3:30 PM, NeverEnough said:

I want off this ride. Offered him for Guice in dynasty. Guice owner is stacked at RB, though...

That's freaking laughable.

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5 minutes ago, Rove! said:

If guess Gus Edwards is now the guy...

He was a bruising full-back type RB at U Miami, with good speed for his size, but no wiggle. He transferred his senior year to Rutgers, partly because he was 3rd on UM's depth chart.

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Collins only in For red zone packages?

Can only gamecast but have not seen him carry between the 20’s.

Edited by VikingFrog

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4 minutes ago, VikingFrog said:

Collins only in For red zone packages?

Can only gamecast but have not seen him carry between the 20’s.

Collins is the backup COP back

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Who is Edwards?  What happened to Collins?  For that matter what happened to buck Allen??

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