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RB Jordan Howard , NO (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Borden
- Start date
saintfool
Dead sexy
He seemed more confident for sure. I could see the potential, for sure, but he is a work in progress.
jurrassic
Footballguy
Andy Reid rb's have averaged 4.2 ypc and 16 td's the last 10 years. The opportunity to score for Hunt is vastly more positive than Howard
Chaka
Footballguy
Maybe. I just think Howard is one of the few backs who is pretty much guaranteed 300+ touches.
When Howard became the starter in week 4 he immediately became their primary option and averaged 20.2 touches over the final 13 games of the season. That projects to 323 touches (347 opportunities). Maybe that number drops but 300 opportunities seems like his floor.
Hunt should get the most carries out of the backfield but I am not sure that he will pick up all Ware's opportunities. Last season the Chiefs went 12-4 and Ware averaged 15.3 carries and 3 targets/game. That translates to 288 opportunities over 16 games, I like Hunt but I think 250 is a more realistic projection for his touches.
I prefer Howard by a fairly wide margin.
jurrassic
Footballguy
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
ryno1980
Footballguy
Good breakdown and I agree with you. But if Hunt catches 40 balls to Howard's 20, he makes up some points in PPR and we know which team should have more red zone chances.Chaka said:
I prefer Howard for sure but Hunt can probably be had 30 picks later.
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SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I think this is a poor comparison. Hill's biggest problem is that he's tentative to hit holes and dances around in the backfield. I largely think this is due to him having sub par vision, which was one of his biggest knocks coming out of college.
Howard is the exact opposite, his vision is by and far his biggest asset. He excels at finding creases and exploiting them. If Howard busts this year it won't be due to him lacking talent as a runner.
Chaka
Footballguy
I think it is far more likely that Howard catches 40 than Hunt. Howard dropped 7 passes last season, worst among RBs, but he still saw 50 targets (42 targets in his 13 games as a starter IIRC) and, importantly, he got PRK eye surgery this off-season and apparently it is has helped him dramatically.
People think Cohen is going to neutralize Howard's upside in the passing game but I personally don't think Cohen is going to impact Howard's role by very much, if at all. Coaches love a true 3 down back because they are harder to defend. Cohen is a threat to the previous 2-4 RBs on the roster but he is not as dynamic as a triple threat like Howard.
Again if Ware managed a pace that would have led to 288 touches (over 16 games) on a 12-4 team, what reason do we have to project Hunt will even reach that mark? Again, while I think Hunt is the clear lead back in KC I just don't see Reid transferring 100% of Ware's workload to him...at least not until later in the season.
ETA: I agree that Hunt is a better value than Howard but I don't like Hunt at his current price tag as much as I do Howard at his.
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Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
To the folks concerned about Howard's situation this year...
How much worse is it going to be than last year? From week 3 on (when he began to start), he was the #7 RB. On a 3-13 team with 3 different starting QB, all of whom sucked pretty badly, with very few good receiving options to open things up for him, he still managed to put up 5.2 YPC - good for 2nd in the league behind McCoy.
When Jeffery, the only really good skill position player they had, went out at the end of the season the team sucked harder than ever, but Howard's numbers went UP.
There is no guarantee he will repeat his success this year, but from a team and supporting cast perspective, there is a whole lot more room for them to get better than to get worse.
How much worse is it going to be than last year? From week 3 on (when he began to start), he was the #7 RB. On a 3-13 team with 3 different starting QB, all of whom sucked pretty badly, with very few good receiving options to open things up for him, he still managed to put up 5.2 YPC - good for 2nd in the league behind McCoy.
When Jeffery, the only really good skill position player they had, went out at the end of the season the team sucked harder than ever, but Howard's numbers went UP.
There is no guarantee he will repeat his success this year, but from a team and supporting cast perspective, there is a whole lot more room for them to get better than to get worse.
ryno1980
Footballguy
Bears were 14th in the league passing yards last year. It can get worse... or maybe you haven't seen Mike Glennon play this preseason. He's a downgrade from Brian Hoyer.
Cam Meredith was better than Jeffery, hauling in 68 percent of his targets. He's out. Kevin white is garbage. Kendall wright is their best wide receiver. It's going to be worse.
Its going to get worse before it gets better on offense.
Now the defense could certainly be much improved so maybe Glennon can game manage and Howard can repeat, but defensive coordinators are going to scheme a way to slow down Howard and force Glennon and these awful receivers to beat them.
jurrassic
Footballguy
ryno1980
Footballguy
Ok well that's 20 picks later bud, the point is still relevant. I took him at 55 on Sunday so I'm sure he still falls to the fourth in many drafts.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
Most likely he will not be a downgrade from Hoyer or Barkley. If he does do worse then he should not have a job in the NFL after this season.
ryno1980
Footballguy
You have more confidence in Glennon than I do then. Again, Hoyer and Barkley had Jeffery and Meredith and put up some big yardage games. Glennon has Kendall Wright and Kevin White.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
Hoyer and Barkley had some occasional good games but showed who they truly are, back ups. I still haven't seen enough of Glennon to know what he is. I saw the bad and I saw the good but it's preseason. I want to see him in a couple real games. If he's terrible for a few games straight then I'll know he really isn't that good.
ryno1980
Footballguy
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
It sucks because, not only was Meredith a feel good story but he was playing very well. Regardless of that, he's not an elite player and can be replaced this season. It's just going to give another player a chance to make a name for himself.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I can see the impulse to do that. Not a good pedigree, on a bad team, not a big play guy.
But I find it hard to sell a hard-running bellcow RB with good vision, who has an elite interior OL. He's going to get a lot of work, be the centerpiece of the offense, and he isn't behind a terrible OL like Gurley or Fournette. And to top it off, his rookie QB actually looks good and like he could be a threat in the future.
Idk. Tough call, but I haven't gotten an offer that would make me want to sell yet anyways.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I'd love to, but I fear I'm the only one in my league that appreciates what he did as a rookie. If there's a good run in the first couple weeks where Glennon looks good and optimism in the Bears arise, then I might get a window to sell.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
My concern has always been stacked boxes and how Howard performed vs. stacked boxes last year. This site is pretty damn informative.
Look at Howard vs. the NFL Average and you'll see what I'm talking about. Howard rushing for 3ypc against 8 man fronts, the league average was 3.9ypc.
If he remains effective against 6-7 man fronts I think he'll be fine but still see a dip in ypc. I projected him at significantly less than 5.2ypc anyway.
As an aside, Murray and Freeman were absolute beasts vs. 8 man fronts.
Look at Howard vs. the NFL Average and you'll see what I'm talking about. Howard rushing for 3ypc against 8 man fronts, the league average was 3.9ypc.
If he remains effective against 6-7 man fronts I think he'll be fine but still see a dip in ypc. I projected him at significantly less than 5.2ypc anyway.
As an aside, Murray and Freeman were absolute beasts vs. 8 man fronts.
Otis
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
They are in big trouble early imo. They open with Atlanta, Tampa, Pitt, GB. Those teams are driving Ferraris and the Bears have a used Honda Civic. I would be very worried about the way the offense looks to start the year.
flapgreen
Footballguy
Who caught it last year? It's a running team. Alshon did very little last year. I think Meredith caught 60 balls. There won't be 3 and outs left and right
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
Meredith led the team with 66 receptions and then Jeffery was next with 52. The Bears are going to spread the ball a round to a lot of guys. Probably going to see a pretty simplified passing attack to minimize turnovers. Deeper passes will be set up by the run game and will be play action. It should be very similar to last year and I see no reason to why it would be worse than last year.
flapgreen
Footballguy
flapgreen
Footballguy
They're better than last year. Qb situation alone changes everything. Shocked how people are making a bigger deal on the WRs than the qb.
flapgreen
Footballguy
This is overanalysis from numbers you see on the internet. Howard was dominant all year with a bunch of scrubs at qb and receivers dropping every pass. If he started from the first game, he would have led the league in rushing. He already led in ypc over Elliot who had a far better supporting cast all around him.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Interesting stat, and cool site.
How in the world did Atlanta end up playing against 8 man fronts more often than the Bears, given the difference in their QB situations?
DocHolliday
Footballguy
I like Howard at his ADP but Hunt (since someone brought him up), probably has more value being drafted about 15 spots later.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
No, it's not.
I have no idea, it's actually mind boggling how many light fronts Howard faced given the fact that he was the only thing on CHI's offense worth paying attention to.
Slider
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
This is another thread that makes me grateful to the Shark Pool. I jumped in here as very bearish on Howard, and while I still consider him a risk the debate points made convinced me that Howard is one of the safest RBs in the top 10. These are the threads that make the SP great.
In my 12 team Super-flex, PPR redraft yesterday Howard went with pick 3.10 as the #10 RB off the board (by me). He is my #1 RB (1.10 Julio, 2.3 M.Evans) and I am very comfortable having a guy who is pretty much locked into 300 touches as a lead back.
D.Cook went at 3.9 (uuuuuuge Vikings homer did that), D. Murray (3.8) & Zeke (2.10) went before Howard. I may have taken Murray over Howard but it would have been very close (Zeke was never going to fall that far but if he did I would have taken him over Murray or Howard.
RBs still on the board were Gurley, Fournette, Crowell & Marshawn.
In my 12 team Super-flex, PPR redraft yesterday Howard went with pick 3.10 as the #10 RB off the board (by me). He is my #1 RB (1.10 Julio, 2.3 M.Evans) and I am very comfortable having a guy who is pretty much locked into 300 touches as a lead back.
D.Cook went at 3.9 (uuuuuuge Vikings homer did that), D. Murray (3.8) & Zeke (2.10) went before Howard. I may have taken Murray over Howard but it would have been very close (Zeke was never going to fall that far but if he did I would have taken him over Murray or Howard.
RBs still on the board were Gurley, Fournette, Crowell & Marshawn.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
It's interesting..
Howard puts up a 13/52/1 stat line and catches 3 of 5 targets for 14 yards and the sky is literally falling.
Freeman in the same game puts up a 12/37/1 stat line and catches 2 of 2 targets for 2 yards and I don't hear a peep.
Howard puts up a 13/52/1 stat line and catches 3 of 5 targets for 14 yards and the sky is literally falling.
Freeman in the same game puts up a 12/37/1 stat line and catches 2 of 2 targets for 2 yards and I don't hear a peep.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Super comparison, as I see Cohen being an electric guy that can make up for the dearth of receiving talent (really feel bad for White, that guy can't catch a break), but in the end is likely not going to take that much away from Howard's game/usage.It's interesting..
Howard puts up a 13/52/1 stat line and catches 3 of 5 targets for 14 yards and the sky is literally falling.
Freeman in the same game puts up a 12/37/1 stat line and catches 2 of 2 targets for 2 yards and I don't hear a peep.
The Freeman/Coleman model is very much what Howard/Cohen will likely be, IMHO.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
weird week 1 in NFL , but Howard held serve, he looked good. Cohen might be to fools gold WW pickup of the year..who knows.
shadyridr
Footballguy
Would you rather have a rb that splits carries on the falcons or the bears?It's interesting..
Howard puts up a 13/52/1 stat line and catches 3 of 5 targets for 14 yards and the sky is literally falling.
Freeman in the same game puts up a 12/37/1 stat line and catches 2 of 2 targets for 2 yards and I don't hear a peep.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
The only way Cohen is fools gold is if they stop using him or being creative to get him the ball. He is going to be a difference maker with the ball in his hand.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I'm not so sure the dynamic between Howard and Cohen is exactly the same as the one between Freeman and Coleman. I think Coleman is a bigger threat to steal actual carries from Freeman as was evidenced today. But yes, I would rather own the RB on the team who takes the most trips to the RZ.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Yeah, but given the differences in the two offenses people were counting on feature work in the Chicago situation to match split work in the Atlanta one.
Even with Howard's great efficiency last year he was still outscored by Freeman (PPR) after he took over the starting job. And that's when he wasn't splitting work there.
Freeman's projections were already based on him giving up some work to Coleman. Howard's weren't.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
So here is Yahoo's summation:
Advice: Howard wound up with decent fantasy production, but this was a game to forget. He barely out-touched dynamic space back Tarik Cohen, 16-13, and dropped the potential game-winning touchdown on Chicago's final drive, sealing the Falcons' win. Howard led all NFL running backs in dropped passes (8) last season. Howard has already fallen into a clear-cut committee Cohen, and his fantasy value is in serious question as more than an RB2 going forward. The Bears travel to Tampa Bay next.
Truth always lies between the extremes -- Howard will still get his carries and opportunities, nothing to see here to Cohen has forced a full blown RBBC with Howard being in a clear-cut full blown committee.
Cohen deserves to be played more, and the team needs his dynamic playmaker abilities. He will get more opportunities, and it will take touches away from Howard.
But hard for me to envision Howard's value dropping to no better than an RB2.
Do I have owner's blinders on, or is it actually probable that the shift of touches/opportunity indeed puts a crimp in my plans to lean on Howard as my RB1 all year?
Advice: Howard wound up with decent fantasy production, but this was a game to forget. He barely out-touched dynamic space back Tarik Cohen, 16-13, and dropped the potential game-winning touchdown on Chicago's final drive, sealing the Falcons' win. Howard led all NFL running backs in dropped passes (8) last season. Howard has already fallen into a clear-cut committee Cohen, and his fantasy value is in serious question as more than an RB2 going forward. The Bears travel to Tampa Bay next.
Truth always lies between the extremes -- Howard will still get his carries and opportunities, nothing to see here to Cohen has forced a full blown RBBC with Howard being in a clear-cut full blown committee.
Cohen deserves to be played more, and the team needs his dynamic playmaker abilities. He will get more opportunities, and it will take touches away from Howard.
But hard for me to envision Howard's value dropping to no better than an RB2.
Do I have owner's blinders on, or is it actually probable that the shift of touches/opportunity indeed puts a crimp in my plans to lean on Howard as my RB1 all year?
zoonation
Footballguy
agree, but Howard is not returning RB1 value this year with a dynamic option like that stealing carries.
His owners are nervous. And rightfully so.
jtd13
Footballguy
Freeman has shown the ability to add really good receiving production over a season to keep his numbers up even if he loses touches, even if he didn't show it today. And as @FreeBaGeL said, part of Howard's appeal was his stranglehold on all the RB work, which no one expected Freeman to have in Atlanta.It's interesting..
Howard puts up a 13/52/1 stat line and catches 3 of 5 targets for 14 yards and the sky is literally falling.
Freeman in the same game puts up a 12/37/1 stat line and catches 2 of 2 targets for 2 yards and I don't hear a peep.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I don't own any Howard stock. I won't deny cohen has looked great and earned carries, but it's one week. I didn't see the game, but it seems like a bit of overreaction.
