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Notorious T.R.E.

***BTTF VI: Draft Over! See you in October

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advanced to 3rd round (final 8) in a 3-0 sweep. now facing a team that hasn't lost yet in this TOC, led by '27 Ty Cobb and 1917 Eddie Ciciotte

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On 1/28/2017 at 7:23 PM, oso diablo said:

got swept out by that team that is still undefeated. they are now 9-0.

guy beat Sale, Lester, and Rich Hill - all at 100%

the team that beat me went 17-1 and won it all. 

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21 minutes ago, oso diablo said:

the team that beat me went 17-1 and won it all. 

Who was on his squad besides Cobb and Ciccote? Lotta dupes?

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16 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Who was on his squad besides Cobb and Ciccote? Lotta dupes?

Hitters

  • 1899 Buck Freeman (?)
  • 1992 Roberto Alomar
  • 1956 Wally Moon
  • 1989 Tim Raines
  • 1895 George Davis
  • 2001 Mark McLemore (his SS with a real-life 790 OPS and a defensive grade of A/D-)
  • 1887 Buck Ewing

Pitchers

  • 1914 Rube Foster
  • 1917 Willie Mitchell
  • 1907 Cy Morgan
  • 1909 Cliff Curtis
  • Cookie relievers

 

I don't get it

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17 minutes ago, jfranco77 said:

Those are a bunch of guys the sim loves. Not surprised at all.

#CookieMonster

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20 hours ago, jfranco77 said:

Those are a bunch of guys the sim loves. Not surprised at all.

see. that's what i don't get. The "sim" is just a bunch of formulas and process steps. What is it seeing in those particular guys?

Do the sim calculations include prior performance in the sim itself as a data input? I wouldn't think so.

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On 2/9/2017 at 10:01 AM, oso diablo said:

see. that's what i don't get. The "sim" is just a bunch of formulas and process steps. What is it seeing in those particular guys?

Do the sim calculations include prior performance in the sim itself as a data input? I wouldn't think so.

Mostly normalization. I don't really know exactly why it happens.

Even when you normalize them down, modern HR hitters from the steroid era seem to do worse than expected. OTOH, oldtime HR hitters (Tilly Walker, Cy Williams, Gavvy Gravath, and yes, Buck Freeman) seem to do better than you'd expect. The sim also likes switch hitters, possibly more than it should. The defensive penalty for playing deadball era fielders behind deadball era pitchers probably isn't strong enough. Base stealers might not be expensive enough, though dynamic pricing is helping with that.

There's something about walks too... I think the way walks are determined before the output of the AB means that guys who hit 280/420/550 with 30 HRs will not hit as many HRs, but guys whose OBP-AVG is small will hit more. So a 300/330/550 guy with 30 bombs is likely to hit more.

No, prior sim performance is not considered.

Edited by jfranco77
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