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[Dynasty] 2017 Draft Prospects

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Based on the production that they already have, and their measurables as estimated by nfldraftscout:

At RB, my numbers really like (in order) Nick Chubb, Leonard Fournette, Royce Freeman, and Dalvin Cook (with more questions about the last two, especially because I haven't watched them play much). That is without penalizing Chubb for his injury, except for the missed games / small total workload this year. A couple tiers behind them are Samaje Perine, Saquon Barkley, Shock Linwood, Kareem Hunt, Elijah McGuire, Elijah Hood, Wayne Gallman, and Christian McCaffrey. It's possible that my system is penalizing McCaffrey too much for his lack of TDs (though it does seem notable that his coaches considered Remound Wright a better option in short yardage & goal-line situations).

At WR, JuJu Smith-Schuster is an elite prospect. Corey Davis, Taywan Taylor, Darren Carrington, and Keevan Lucas are ok prospects. Josh Reynolds, Kenny Golladay, Chris Godwin, Mack Hollins, Shelton Gibson, and Isaiah Ford would be in the "can't rule him out" category if they were entering the NFL now.

That's 5 top prospects at RB & WR who already have strong production on their resume, plus a bunch of other names who seem worth keeping an eye on or looking into in more depth.

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12 hours ago, ZWK said:

Based on the production that they already have, and their measurables as estimated by nfldraftscout:

At RB, my numbers really like (in order) Nick Chubb, Leonard Fournette, Royce Freeman, and Dalvin Cook (with more questions about the last two, especially because I haven't watched them play much). That is without penalizing Chubb for his injury, except for the missed games / small total workload this year. A couple tiers behind them are Samaje Perine, Saquon Barkley, Shock Linwood, Kareem Hunt, Elijah McGuire, Elijah Hood, Wayne Gallman, and Christian McCaffrey. It's possible that my system is penalizing McCaffrey too much for his lack of TDs (though it does seem notable that his coaches considered Remound Wright a better option in short yardage & goal-line situations).

At WR, JuJu Smith-Schuster is an elite prospect. Corey Davis, Taywan Taylor, Darren Carrington, and Keevan Lucas are ok prospects. Josh Reynolds, Kenny Golladay, Chris Godwin, Mack Hollins, Shelton Gibson, and Isaiah Ford would be in the "can't rule him out" category if they were entering the NFL now.

That's 5 top prospects at RB & WR who already have strong production on their resume, plus a bunch of other names who seem worth keeping an eye on or looking into in more depth.

No Mike Williams?

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15 hours ago, Xue said:

Where do you have him?

He's overrated due to his production and high school hype. He has physical limitations and is dependent on the scheme at LSU: I-formation with lead FB.  Doesn't create a lot for himself.

He's not overrated, he's gonna be the first RB drafted and be a beast in the NFL. I do love where you have McCaffrey ranked though.

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49 minutes ago, petekrum said:

He's not overrated, he's gonna be the first RB drafted and be a beast in the NFL. I do love where you have McCaffrey ranked though.

Ok. So what do your rankings look like?  What does he do better than who I have ahead of him?

Personally, he's not even the best RB on LSU: https://youtu.be/O2iHlTFbeV4?t=1m10s

Edited by Xue

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So are we very high on the 2017 crop at this point?  trying to gauge what picks to move out and try and acquire 2017 picks.

I own   1,3,5,6,14 overall this year (looking at packaging 6 and 14 for 7 overall and a 2017 1st (projected anywhere from 4-6)

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21 minutes ago, Xue said:

Ok. So what do your rankings look like?  What does he do better than who I have ahead of him?

Personally, he's not even the best RB on LSU: https://youtu.be/O2iHlTFbeV4?t=1m10s

I had him just behind Chubb until the injury, but I'm not sure we have much to discuss if you think he's the second best RB on LSU. We are obviously world's apart.

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11 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

So are we very high on the 2017 crop at this point?  trying to gauge what picks to move out and try and acquire 2017 picks.

I own   1,3,5,6,14 overall this year (looking at packaging 6 and 14 for 7 overall and a 2017 1st (projected anywhere from 4-6)

I wouldn't give you any kind of decent 2017 pick for anything less than your 2016 number one.

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1 hour ago, Gottabesweet said:

So are we very high on the 2017 crop at this point?  trying to gauge what picks to move out and try and acquire 2017 picks.

I own   1,3,5,6,14 overall this year (looking at packaging 6 and 14 for 7 overall and a 2017 1st (projected anywhere from 4-6)

I'd probably be willing to move anything outside the top 4 for a random 2017 1st. 

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2 hours ago, petekrum said:

He's not overrated, he's gonna be the first RB drafted and be a beast in the NFL. I do love where you have McCaffrey ranked though.

My position isn't as extreme as Xue's, but I agree with his general premise. Fournette isn't quite the prospect that people make him out to be. He is a size/speed guy, but not particularly elusive. 

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2 hours ago, petekrum said:

I had him just behind Chubb until the injury, but I'm not sure we have much to discuss if you think he's the second best RB on LSU. We are obviously world's apart.

Careful, people used to say this when Chubb was just being discovered and people talked about him over Gurley. Don't discount Guice.

Edited by Bronx Bomber

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2 hours ago, petekrum said:

I had him just behind Chubb until the injury, but I'm not sure we have much to discuss if you think he's the second best RB on LSU. We are obviously world's apart.

You didn't answer the question. So basically you have no rationale other than "he's gonna ... be a beast".

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35 minutes ago, Xue said:

You didn't answer the question. So basically you have no rationale other than "he's gonna ... be a beast".

I see you've met petekrum.

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20 hours ago, Xue said:

You didn't answer the question. So basically you have no rationale other than "he's gonna ... be a beast".

His combination of size and speed will translate very well to the NFL. He was the entire focus of opposing defenses with LSU'S QB problems and still put up monster numbers. At worst he's the second RB taken by the middle of the first.

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On 5/4/2016 at 9:05 AM, FFCardsFan said:
On 5/4/2016 at 8:26 PM, ZWK said:

Based on the production that they already have, and their measurables as estimated by nfldraftscout:

At RB, my numbers really like (in order) Nick Chubb, Leonard Fournette, Royce Freeman, and Dalvin Cook (with more questions about the last two, especially because I haven't watched them play much). That is without penalizing Chubb for his injury, except for the missed games / small total workload this year. A couple tiers behind them are Samaje Perine, Saquon Barkley, Shock Linwood, Kareem Hunt, Elijah McGuire, Elijah Hood, Wayne Gallman, and Christian McCaffrey. It's possible that my system is penalizing McCaffrey too much for his lack of TDs (though it does seem notable that his coaches considered Remound Wright a better option in short yardage & goal-line situations).

At WR, JuJu Smith-Schuster is an elite prospect. Corey Davis, Taywan Taylor, Darren Carrington, and Keevan Lucas are ok prospects. Josh Reynolds, Kenny Golladay, Chris Godwin, Mack Hollins, Shelton Gibson, and Isaiah Ford would be in the "can't rule him out" category if they were entering the NFL now.

That's 5 top prospects at RB & WR who already have strong production on their resume, plus a bunch of other names who seem worth keeping an eye on or looking into in more depth.

No Mike Williams?

His numbers so far put him in that last category with Mack Hollins. I missed him because I was looking at the 2015 page of my spreadsheet, and he mostly missed this year & had his good season in 2014. He had very good YPT but not many TDs, with decent receiving yardage totals, for Clemson in 2014. It's interesting that he had a lot of receptions for 25-40 yards but very few for more than 40.

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14 hours ago, petekrum said:

His combination of size and speed will translate very well to the NFL. He was the entire focus of opposing defenses with LSU'S QB problems and still put up monster numbers. At worst he's the second RB taken by the middle of the first.

Many of the RBs I ranked have a very good size/speed combo as well.  His O-line doesn't get enough credit for his success, which didn't look great vs Alabama.

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On 5/5/2016 at 9:10 AM, petekrum said:

His combination of size and speed will translate very well to the NFL. He was the entire focus of opposing defenses with LSU'S QB problems and still put up monster numbers. At worst he's the second RB taken by the middle of the first.

I think he's a first round back, but Chubb has the same speed, more power, and superior agility. That's what separates them IMO. Fournette is more of a pure north-south player. He has quick feet, but is not the type of back to sink his hips, plant sideways, and leave people grasping air. He doesn't have that quick lateral flexibility. Occasionally when he gets in 1v1 situations you see a little bit of his weakness in this area. This is a good example:

 

https://youtu.be/k9etZq3uKNs?t=14m3s


He was not able to plant and cut hard enough to evade the tackle.

 

In the next example he actually succeeds at making the defender miss, but look at how choppy his footwork is and at how long it takes him to gear down and redirect:

 

https://youtu.be/hiNV7K9nozs?t=1m53s


He lost a lot of speed/momentum on that run. It is more an example of terrible pursuit/tackling than it is of good footwork and elusiveness.


Now compare that with a truly out of this world back, Adrian Peterson. Look at how wide his base is when he runs and how easily he is able to plant and redirect his movement:

 

https://youtu.be/mGwx-ZmCGi8?t=1m15s

 

Watch that whole video and you will see countless examples of him cutting on an absolute dime. His cuts are so crisp and efficient with little loss of speed or momentum. That's what separates the good ones from the legendary ones.

 

With Chubb I see a more graceful east-west runner who can easily shift his momentum and bounce around laterally. No choppy feet, just plant, drive, and slide.

 

https://youtu.be/gaV0yB1pX4k?t=7m31s

 

https://youtu.be/gaV0yB1pX4k?t=1m1s

 

I still think Fournette can be successful. Plenty of straight-line type guys have had some success in the league (DMC, Mendenhall, Chris Johnson). However, he's not the perfect back and may be a little more reliant on scheme/supporting cast than some other guys. I don't see him on the Peterson/Tomlinson level, which is how many are billing him right now. I see him as being more in line with a Ryan Mathews or Rashard Mendenhall. First round talent. Nice blend of size/speed. Lacking a little something to be that legendary type of prospect.

 

Edited by EBF
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2 hours ago, EBF said:

I think he's a first round back, but Chubb has the same speed, more power, and superior agility. That's what separates them IMO. Fournette is more of a pure north-south player. He has quick feet, but is not the type of back to sink his hips, plant sideways, and leave people grasping air. He doesn't have that quick lateral flexibility. Occasionally when he gets in 1v1 situations you see a little bit of his weakness in this area. This is a good example:

 

https://youtu.be/k9etZq3uKNs?t=14m3s


He was not able to plant and cut hard enough to evade the tackle.

 

In the next example he actually succeeds at making the defender miss, but look at how choppy his footwork is and at how long it takes him to gear down and redirect:

 

https://youtu.be/hiNV7K9nozs?t=1m53s


He lost a lot of speed/momentum on that run. It is more an example of terrible pursuit/tackling than it is of good footwork and elusiveness.


Now compare that with a truly out of this world back, Adrian Peterson. Look at how wide his base is when he runs and how easily he is able to plant and redirect his movement:

 

https://youtu.be/mGwx-ZmCGi8?t=1m15s

 

Watch that whole video and you will see countless examples of him cutting on an absolute dime. His cuts are so crisp and efficient with little loss of speed or momentum. That's what separates the good ones from the legendary ones.

 

With Chubb I see a more graceful east-west runner who can easily shift his momentum and bounce around laterally. No choppy feet, just plant, drive, and slide.

 

https://youtu.be/gaV0yB1pX4k?t=7m31s

 

https://youtu.be/gaV0yB1pX4k?t=1m1s

 

I still think Fournette can be successful. Plenty of straight-line type guys have had some success in the league (DMC, Mendenhall, Chris Johnson). However, he's not the perfect back and may be a little more reliant on scheme/supporting cast than some other guys. I don't see him on the Peterson/Tomlinson level, which is how many are billing him right now. I see him as being more in line with a Ryan Mathews or Rashard Mendenhall. First round talent. Nice blend of size/speed. Lacking a little something to be that legendary type of prospect.

 

You're wrong.  Fournette looks better running with ball than Chubb, not to mention the bad injury Chubb had.  You won't find very many in fantasy circles tha would take Chubb over Fourette.

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19 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

You're wrong.  Fournette looks better running with ball than Chubb, not to mention the bad injury Chubb had.  You won't find very many in fantasy circles tha would take Chubb over Fourette.

:lmao:

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1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

You're wrong.  Fournette looks better running with ball than Chubb, not to mention the bad injury Chubb had.  You won't find very many in fantasy circles tha would take Chubb over Fourette.

The only reason it's close is because Chubb got injured. He looks better and had much better production against the same type of competition.


The mocks don't matter to me that much at this stage of the cycle. At this time a year ago people had Duke Williams ahead of Corey Coleman.

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1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

You're wrong.  Fournette looks better running with ball than Chubb, not to mention the bad injury Chubb had.  You won't find very many in fantasy circles tha would take Chubb over Fourette.

LOL. Let me know when Fournette can do this:

 

https://gfycat.com/VengefulAlarmedAffenpinscher

https://gfycat.com/ResponsiblePassionateIcelandgull

Look Fournette tries to make a hard lateral cut, but can't do it because he has poor hips.

https://gfycat.com/SorrowfulWholeDogwoodclubgall

Chubb is a freak athlete and I expect him to fully recover as Willis McGahee and Adrian Peterson has.

 

Fournette isn't even the best RB on his own team.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2iHlTFbeV4

Edited by Xue
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Adding my $.02 to the Fournette/Chubb debate.  I think it's pretty obvious Chubb is the better runner.  They could both totally end up being RB1s for many years in FF, but if I'm ranking them based on the eye test, Chubb just has the cutting ability to match the speed and power.  I'm taking Chubb all day.  I'm really eager to see him get back from that injury. 

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25 minutes ago, Xue said:

LOL. Let me know when Fournette can do this:

 

https://gfycat.com/VengefulAlarmedAffenpinscher

https://gfycat.com/ResponsiblePassionateIcelandgull

Look Fournette tries to make a hard lateral cut, but can't do it because he has poor hips.

https://gfycat.com/SorrowfulWholeDogwoodclubgall

Chubb is a freak athlete and I expect him to fully recover as Willis McGahee and Adrian Peterson has.

 

Fournette isn't even the best RB on his own team.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2iHlTFbeV4

Easy to pick and choose the video of your choice.  I've watched Fournete plenty and he looks looks like a stud running the ball.  I first watched video of him when he was in HS and you just know it when you see it.  I'm not saying Chubb won't also be a stud at the next level but I'm not going to sit here and act as if I was some sort of player scout like you (poor hips ;) ) and EBF do, but for my money I like and have both, but I just like Fournette better right now. I guess that could change my mind down the road.

Edited by JohnnyU

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40 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Easy to pick and choose the video of your choice.  I've watched Fournete plenty and he looks looks like a stud running the ball.  I first watched video of him when he was in HS and you just know it when you see it.  I'm not saying Chubb won't also be a stud at the next level but I'm not going to sit here and act as if I was some sort of player scout like you (poor hips ;) ) and EBF do, but for my money I like and have both, but I just like Fournette better right now. I guess that could change my mind down the road.

I picked the two of the best cuts Chubb probably has ever made that I've seen. For Fournette, I picked the most similar play and cut I could find resembling the first one of Chubb.

 

If you'd like to post something of your own, go ahead, but I'm confident you won't be able to find Fournette making moves close to what Chubb can do.

What exactly is Fournette better at?  What does "looks like a stud running the ball" mean?  Chubb and Guice are the same.

Fournette's HS video wasn't very impressive.  He was big, strong, and fast in a straight line running over smaller defenders, just like he is right now. 

Jacques Patrick is someone who looked very similar to Fournette in HS and I think he can become a similar player in college.

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On 5/3/2016 at 1:31 PM, Run It Up said:

McCaffrey getting the white rb treatment.

No, he's getting the overrated due to production treatment.  I don't see how he is significantly better than Royce Freeman.

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2 hours ago, Xue said:

No, he's getting the overrated due to production treatment.  I don't see how he is significantly better than Royce Freeman.

Strange comparison, they have very different skill-sets so I'm not sure how you're measuring "better". 

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9 hours ago, Xue said:

I picked the two of the best cuts Chubb probably has ever made that I've seen. For Fournette, I picked the most similar play and cut I could find resembling the first one of Chubb.

 

If you'd like to post something of your own, go ahead, but I'm confident you won't be able to find Fournette making moves close to what Chubb can do.

What exactly is Fournette better at?  What does "looks like a stud running the ball" mean?  Chubb and Guice are the same.

Fournette's HS video wasn't very impressive.  He was big, strong, and fast in a straight line running over smaller defenders, just like he is right now. 

Jacques Patrick is someone who looked very similar to Fournette in HS and I think he can become a similar player in college.

Not speaking for Chubb but Fournette looks very fluid when he runs, sort of like Adrian Peterson and Eric Dickerson.

Edited by JohnnyU

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10 hours ago, Xue said:

No, he's getting the overrated due to production treatment.  I don't see how he is significantly better than Royce Freeman.


Wtf does that even mean? What are you attributing his success to that allows you to discount his production? Is his full season of production not enough to slot him ahead of guys he's clearly better than? Is Stanford the Dallas Cowboys? I watched him play and he should have won the Heisman. 

On the topic of whether Mccaffrey could even make it in the NFL, DLF forums: 

Quote

Honestly, if McCaffrey were black then no one would be having this discussion. Not trying to be that guy but it has to be said. 

Dude is special, and he'll be special in the NFL as a runningback, no he won't have to change positions or be a COP guy. 

He is every bit as quick, elusive, and a playmaker as many RB's that we call studs. I'm buying him in a DEVY league late because this is the lowest his value will be. Also, since he won't be the best RB in his class (Fournette, Cook, Samaje, maybe Chubb), He's got a great chance to land in a great spot. 

Its not an uncommon opinion, so please what are you attributing his production to that is a negative impact on his value.

Edited by Run It Up

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13 hours ago, Xue said:

No, he's getting the overrated due to production treatment.  I don't see how he is significantly better than Royce Freeman.

So... What exact level of production do you need to hit to be properly rated or under rated? 

Not like he's shredding some fcs guys every week

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On 5/3/2016 at 3:09 PM, Xue said:

My early rankings.

 

RBs
1a.Chubb
1b.Cook

3.Scarbrough
4.Freeman
5.Ballage
6.Mixon
7.Fournette
8.Hood
9.Perine

10.Michel
11.McCaffrey
12.Conner
13.Hurd
14.Gallman


WRs
1a.Smith-Schuster
1b.M. Williams

3.C. Davis
4.Villamin
5.Sutton
6.Dural
7.J. Washington

8.Cobbs
9.Lazard
10. Dupre
11.Chesson

So is Corey Clement just off the radar right now? I gotta believe he comes back 100% and puts up some numbers.

 

https://badgerofhonor.com/2016/04/25/wisconsin-football-corey-clement-shows-strong-at-spring-game/

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12 hours ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

Strange comparison, they have very different skill-sets so I'm not sure how you're measuring "better". 

I'm comparing them because they play in the same conference.  I prefer Freeman because he's bigger and breaks tackles better and he is just as good of a receiver.

 

If someone is high on McCaffrey, they better be high on Sony Michel as well. But they're probably not. Which is why McCaffrey is overrated.

Edited by Xue

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5 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Not speaking for Chubb but Fournette looks very fluid when he runs, sort of like Adrian Peterson and Eric Dickerson.

So how does that make him better than Chubb or any other RB I have ranked above Fournette?

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7 hours ago, Run It Up said:


Wtf does that even mean? What are you attributing his success to that allows you to discount his production? Is his full season of production not enough to slot him ahead of guys he's clearly better than? Is Stanford the Dallas Cowboys? I watched him play and he should have won the Heisman. 

On the topic of whether Mccaffrey could even make it in the NFL, DLF forums: 

Its not an uncommon opinion, so please what are you attributing his production to that is a negative impact on his value.

Define "better" and who is he better than?  I'm saying his production is causing people to overrated his "talent". In my eyes, he's the 5th most talented RB in his own conference behind SoSo Jamabo, Ronald Jones, Royce Freeman and Kalen Ballage.  The common college football viewer don't know who these 3 RBs are because they haven't produced as much as McCaffrey.

 

I think McCaffrey is more of 2nd rounder. In terms of "skill set", Sony Michel is very similar and no one seems to be as high on him. So why the disconnect?

Edited by Xue

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16 minutes ago, Xue said:

So how does that make him better than Chubb or any other RB I have ranked above Fournette?

I'm not a player scout so I'm looking at it from an untrained eye, unlike you and EBF ;)  I love the way Fournette runs and he reminds me of Adrian Peterson and Eric Dickerson from yesteryear.  That alone puts him above any other running back.....from an untrained eye perspective.  I'll take my chances with Fournette.  Having said that, I'm glad I own Chubb in at least one league.

Edited by JohnnyU

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