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[Dynasty] 2017 Draft Prospects

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i guess "talent" is pure measurable... what kind of athlete a player is vis a vis each other. McCaffrey is fast, quick, good hands and vision. Ran track in HS. Has great genes. And is white, which shouldn't matter but it does to some people. If he runs under 4.50 40 at the combine, he will be a 1st round pick.

Production needs to be a factor because it involves at least a modicum of "talent" to be productive.  McCaffrey got the ball a lot. There must be a reason the coaching staff felt he should be getting 380 touches, plus returns.  I think it is ridiculous to discount a player because of production and to a certain degree, usage.

I don't think anybody is saying he is the best RB prospect, but he is a 1st round talent (and the most productive/best RB in college)

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1 hour ago, Xue said:

If someone is high on McCaffrey, they better be high on Sony Michel as well. But they're probably not. Which is why McCaffrey is overrated.

This reminds me of when you were touting Dwayne Washington as the next Melvin Gordon before this year. I believe that was it. Trying to pick out a player with a similar skill-set to a well-known prospect who has produced much less for various reasons is a good way to stimulate conversation.

But how often do you hit on these? Sometimes, production DOES matter and hype is well deserved. Its not all just physical traits.

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17 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

This reminds me of when you were touting Dwayne Washington as the next Melvin Gordon before this year. I believe that was it. Trying to pick out a player with a similar skill-set to a well-known prospect who has produced much less for various reasons is a good way to stimulate conversation.

But how often do you hit on these? Sometimes, production DOES matter and hype is well deserved. Its not all just physical traits.


Michel has plenty of production, though.

 

With McCaffrey vs Freeman, is 181 rushing yards and 297 receiving yards worth significantly more than the other?

 

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OTC w 1.01/1.02 in a combined rookie/devy draft. Everyone is still available. League settings:

14 teams, Superflex, ppr, 5pt passing td's. http://www55.myfantasyleague.com/2016/home/74403#0 Team- Short Shorts

I have Andrew Luck and not much else. Basically, I punted this year and stocked up with picks. Who've you got? 

1.01- Zeke

1.02- ? 

Chubb? Juju? D Watson? Quon?

 

Edited by dipandglide

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24 minutes ago, Xue said:


Michel has plenty of production, though.

 

With McCaffrey vs Freeman, is 181 rushing yards and 297 receiving yards worth significantly more than the other?

 

I like the way McCaffrey's skill-set projects directly to the NFL. I find Freeman to be too sluggish and straight line for me, honestly he just looks like a guy to me compared to a lot of the RB's in this class. I think Freeman is closer to Hurd than McCaffrey. I prefer Hurd by a little bit,  actually.

 

Liked your Ronald Jones shout-out by the way, drafted him over Freeman myself. He's going to be a stud. 

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"Significantly more" ? Is your premise that McCaffrey is getting much more hype/love than Freeman? The two of the four DLF rankers have McCaffrey ahead of Freeman, and the other two has Freeman ahead.

Personally, I have McCaffrey ahead but on the same Tier and took him with my last devy pick (the 12th and last devy spot available) over Freeman because its PPR and 300 MORE yards of college production was a factor.

I think we all can agree a loaded RB class is coming and it won't be like this year where it's Zeke and the Pips. Chubb vs Fournette, or McCaffrey vs Freeman at this stage of the process is just preference. Another year of college, plus combine and NFL draft will help form the rankings... for now, it's just conjecture, nothing to worry about.

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2 hours ago, dipandglide said:

OTC w 1.01/1.02 in a combined rookie/devy draft. Everyone is still available. League settings:

14 teams, Superflex, ppr, 5pt passing td's. http://www55.myfantasyleague.com/2016/home/74403#0 Team- Short Shorts

I have Andrew Luck and not much else. Basically, I punted this year and stocked up with picks. Who've you got? 

1.01- Zeke

1.02- ? 

Chubb? Juju? D Watson? Quon?

 

 

I love Chubb, but with the injury I'd be tempted to go JuJu. I face the same dilemma for an August draft and will probably go JuJu.

 

Haven't done my homework on Watson to know anything of substance about him, but in a 14 team PPR WRs will always be stressed.

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20 hours ago, EBF said:

 

I love Chubb, but with the injury I'd be tempted to go JuJu. I face the same dilemma for an August draft and will probably go JuJu.

 

Haven't done my homework on Watson to know anything of substance about him, but in a 14 team PPR WRs will always be stressed.

I went with Treadwell. It was mainly between him and Juju. The reason I went Treadwell is because he's a good football player. I know he isn't the most athletic, but I like his physicality and the way he carries himself both on and off the field. I also think he and Teddy's skill sets match really well. Hopefully they both blossom post AP. Only time will tell :)

I have 1.08/1.09. It'll be interesting to see who goes off the board these next few picks. I have to assume Fournette, Chubb, Juju and Cook will all be gone leaving me with Watson, Rosen, Kaaya, M Williams, C Davis, Barkley, Guice and others. Any thoughts? I never asked you guys about Corey Davis. Is he as good as everyone says? He seems to be polarizing in the drafts I've seen. 

I noticed there's a devy draft thread. If this is bugging you guys, or a mod wants to move it, please do. If not, thanks as always to the posters for their thoughts and insight. 

Edit- Goff, Wentz and Doctson might all go in the 1.03-1.07 range too. I'm gonna guess QB's will be slightly devalued and will fall. How would you rank Goff, Wentz, Rosen and Watson? 

Double Edit- Got Juju @ 1.05! traded 1.08/2.07 for 1.05/3.09

 

 

Edited by dipandglide

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4 hours ago, DexterDew said:

"Significantly more" ? Is your premise that McCaffrey is getting much more hype/love than Freeman? The two of the four DLF rankers have McCaffrey ahead of Freeman, and the other two has Freeman ahead.

Personally, I have McCaffrey ahead but on the same Tier and took him with my last devy pick (the 12th and last devy spot available) over Freeman because its PPR and 300 MORE yards of college production was a factor.

I think we all can agree a loaded RB class is coming and it won't be like this year where it's Zeke and the Pips. Chubb vs Fournette, or McCaffrey vs Freeman at this stage of the process is just preference. Another year of college, plus combine and NFL draft will help form the rankings... for now, it's just conjecture, nothing to worry about.


Thats all I'm saying, I just can't see how I keep regularly seeing Mccaffrey as RB 12+, I'm not saying hes a world beater, but I am really impressed with what I have seen.

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On 5/4/2016 at 11:05 AM, FFCardsFan said:

No Mike Williams?

My first thought. M

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Just now, Xue said:

Define "better" and who is he better than?  I'm saying his production is causing people to overrated his "talent". In my eyes, he's the 5th most talented RB in his own conference behind SoSo Jamabo, Ronald Jones, Royce Freeman and Kalen Ballage.  The common college football viewer don't know who these 3 RBs are because they haven't produced as much as McCaffrey.

 

I think McCaffrey is more of 2nd rounder. In terms of "skill set", Sony Michel is very similar and no one seems to be as high on him. So why the disconnect?

I've been high on Michel for some time now https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/683118-the-devy-draft-thread/?do=findComment&comment=18094927

I'm sure there's some posts from 4 or 5 years ago but anyway you mentioned that McCaffrey and Michel has the same skill set could you expand on that?

 

Tex

Edited by BigTex

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Wisconsin HC Paul Chyrst indicated that he was pleased to see senior RB Corey Clement make it through all 15 spring practices without a health concern.

 

"I think that this was good for [Clement] to finish out. He was excited to be back and practicing and feeling healthy," Chyrst said. The 5-foot-11, 217-pound senior had himself a tumultuous 2015 season, lowlighted by a sports hernia at the end of August camp (that ultimately required surgery) and a citation for disorderly conduct in November. He actually changed his number from 6 to 24 this offseason, hoping that he could scrub clean the remnants of his previous being. As for his health, Clement said, "I think I just needed to get hit a little bit, run around, execute some blocks and just feel like football again." In a healthy 2014 campaign, Clement rushed for 949 yards (6.5 YPC) and nine touchdowns while backing up Melvin Gordon. 2016 should provide the largest workload of his collegiate career, assuming he can stay healthy and clear from the law.
 
 
May 15 - 2:59 PM

 

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Rivals recruiting director Mike Farrell noted that "n a down quarterback year, [Miami junior QB Brad] Kaaya is in a perfect spot to be a top 10 pick or even higher if he takes the next step in his development."

 

"The NFL loves starters from freshman year as they go through the bumps and bruises that prepare you for the NFL (see Jared Goff)," Farrell wrote. Left unsaid, that ups-and-downs become problematic when there are more downs than ups (see Christian Hackenberg). Hack began his collegiate career on fire before spending the next two seasons playing like a man who was literally on fire. For his part, Kaaya posted incredibly similar freshman and sophomore seasons in many statistical categories, though there is one oddity. He held a strong 26/12 TD/INT ratio in 2014. That dropped to just 16/5 last season -- despite the fact that Kaaya threw 11 more passes in 2015. Some of that can be chalked up to a dip in offensive talent around him. Regardless, it should be counted as a good sign that he cut back significantly on the interceptions.
 
 
Source: Rivals 
May 15 - 1:39 PM

 

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ESPN's Brandon Chatmon noted that Baylor redshirt junior RB Johnny Jefferson "could be ready for an exceptional season that earns all-conference honors."

 
Jefferson drew his fair share of buzz this spring and as Chatmon notes, he is listed on the depth chart alongside Shock Linwood as the No. 1 Bear back right now. "Jefferson had a stellar sophomore season," Chatmon wrote, "leading the Big 12 with a 7.35 yards-per-carry average, 54.4 percent of his carries resulting in five or more yards and an average of 5.45 yards before contact per carry." The 5-foot-10, 210-pounder finished with an even 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns last season. This, despite the fact that he received only 136 carries. Linwood is recovering from offseason foot surgery and while a Wally Pipping probably isn't in the cards, at the very least, Jefferson should receive more than 136 carries in 2016.
 
 
Source: ESPN.com 
May 15 - 1:15 PM

 

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On 5/9/2016 at 4:06 PM, DexterDew said:

i guess "talent" is pure measurable... what kind of athlete a player is vis a vis each other. McCaffrey is fast, quick, good hands and vision. Ran track in HS. Has great genes. And is white, which shouldn't matter but it does to some people. If he runs under 4.50 40 at the combine, he will be a 1st round pick.

Production needs to be a factor because it involves at least a modicum of "talent" to be productive.  McCaffrey got the ball a lot. There must be a reason the coaching staff felt he should be getting 380 touches, plus returns.  I think it is ridiculous to discount a player because of production and to a certain degree, usage.

I don't think anybody is saying he is the best RB prospect, but he is a 1st round talent (and the most productive/best RB in college)

McCaffrey won't be a first round pick because he's smaller/not a tough inside runner/and his number will likely go down this year(no Josh Garnett). RB's his size haven't gone in the 1st round since Reggie Bush?

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His numbers will go down unless he breaks his record from last year, so that is not a very bold statement. 

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McCaffrey has been a great college player. He'll be a change of pace, third down back in the NFL. 

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4 minutes ago, petekrum said:

McCaffrey has been a great college player. He'll be a change of pace, third down back in the NFL. 

If anyone had any doubts, this should change some minds.

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Maybe the pace (game) has changed?

how he tests at the combine and pro day will dictate if he goes in the first. I will not stereotype white rbs or WRs or black QBs. Numbers are color blind, both stats and measurables. 

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20 minutes ago, Run It Up said:

If anyone had any doubts, this should change some minds.

I'm not trying to change minds. It matters to me less than nothing if you want to waste picks.

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44 minutes ago, DexterDew said:

Maybe the pace (game) has changed?

how he tests at the combine and pro day will dictate if he goes in the first. I will not stereotype white rbs or WRs or black QBs. Numbers are color blind, both stats and measurables. 

To my knowledge there isn't a stereotype for white RBs other than that they are rarerly drafted appropriate to their value. Woodhead played D3 and shattered a ton of records and went undrafted. Hes easily a top 5 third down back in the NFL right now and has been for the last half decade. He was cut by the Jets before playing a game. Can discuss the relative value of a top 3rd down back and some JAG two down back who is one in a literal sea of dudes. But they are definitely a piece of value to a modern NFL offense - doing a disservice already relegating him to a purely third down role, he could easily pack on 15 lbs and his frame would be incredibly similar to David Johnsons - both just very evenly distributed.

If Mccaffrey was black we wouldn't be entertaining the notion that he wasn't a top 5 back, and yet here we are, comparing him to dudes who haven't played. Why? Because reasons...

Again, not saying he is markedly better than the big names right now, but we also got a year to go and I don't see how you have a dude who had a legitimate argument for the Heisman, and imo should have won it and hes regularly being tiered in at RB12+, #### off with that noise.

Edited by Run It Up
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6 minutes ago, DexterDew said:

Maybe the pace (game) has changed?

how he tests at the combine and pro day will dictate if he goes in the first. I will not stereotype white rbs or WRs or black QBs. Numbers are color blind, both stats and measurables. 

I can understand not wanting to stereotype, but you can't overlook the fact that other than one fluke season from Hillis the last white feature back to be fantasy relevant was John Riggins. Now I can see him being a Woodhead type which certainly wouldn't be a bad thing, but I can't see him going to a team and bring THE guy.

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1 hour ago, DexterDew said:

His numbers will go down unless he breaks his record from last year, so that is not a very bold statement. 

You could've asked for clarification. But I meant he won't be as efficient. Holes won't be as big and he tends to bounce everything when a clear lane isn't there.

 

201 lb RBs don't go in round one

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200 pound backs can go in round one if they have elite wheels (Reggie Bush, Chris Johnson, CJ Spiller).

 

I think McCaffrey's versatility will appeal to teams, but I'm on the fence about his NFL outlook. I see him as more likely for rounds 2-4.

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Just now, Run It Up said:

To my knowledge there isn't a stereotype for white RBs other than that they are rarerly drafted appropriate to their value. Woodhead played D3 and shattered a ton of records and went undrafted. Hes easily a top 5 third down back in the NFL right now and has been for the last half decade. He was cut by the Jets before playing a game. Can discuss the relative value of a top 3rd down back and some JAG two down back who is one in a literal sea of dudes. But they are definitely a piece of value to a modern NFL offense - doing a disservice already relegating him to a purely third down role, he could easily pack on 15 lbs and his frame would be incredibly similar to David Johnsons - both just very evenly distributed.

If Mccaffrey was black we wouldn't be entertaining the notion that he wasn't a top 5 back, and yet here we are, comparing him to dudes who haven't played. Why? Because reasons...

Again, not saying he is markedly better than the big names right now, but we also got a year to go and I don't see how you have a dude who had a legitimate argument for the Heisman, and imo should have won it and hes regularly being tiered in at RB12+, #### off with that noise.

McCaffrey had the best season of any college football player ever including shattering Barry Sanders and Melvin Gordon's records. Even with Gordon having the monster season he did many people still believed that Gurley was a better "NFL" running back and Gordon is black. So it's about perspective really. Just because someone had monster numbers doesn't necessarily mean they are the fit for the "NFL" 

Do you think McCaffrey is a better "NFL" prospect than Barry Sander was?

IMHO, this hobby we're in is a little tricky. We have to be visionary in a sense, trying to predicting the future and how a player at the college level  will fit in the "NFL" is not easy. We have to be a visionary and some of our visions can be blurry whether it's because of race, metrics, or opinions this hobby is not easy to predict.

McCaffrey is not easy to peg because his productions says he was the best back in college in 2015 and even though he shattered Gordon's and Sanders records are we to believe he's going to be better than them at the "NFL" level?

Tex 

 

Edited by BigTex

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13 hours ago, EBF said:

200 pound backs can go in round one if they have elite wheels (Reggie Bush, Chris Johnson, CJ Spiller).

 

I think McCaffrey's versatility will appeal to teams, but I'm on the fence about his NFL outlook. I see him as more likely for rounds 2-4.

Only 1 of that group(CJ) proved to be worth the selection. NFL teams are smart and investing in little RBs in round 1 isn't how they will win.

Now add in the context the 2017 RB class. Why take McCaffrey in round 1, when you can grab Marlon Mack in round 5 or 6?

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Gordon is garbage. Opportunity is what has kept the white running back from prominence. Opportunity and ignorance.

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USC junior WR JuJu Smith-Schuster checks in at No. 17 on Mel Kiper's Big Board.

 

"A prolific producer over two years at USC (143 catches) with a coveted combination of size and speed, Smith-Schuster isn't shy when it comes to delivering a blow or playing through contact. He is a fiery competitor," he wrote. "You'll get some Dez Bryant comparisons here." The 6-foot-2, 210-pounder will help to break in USC's new quarterback, whether that's Max Browne, Sam Darnold or Jalen Green.
 
 
Source: ESPN.com
May 16 - 7:59 PM

 

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ESPN's Mel Kiper ranks Miami junior QB Brad Kaaya No. 13 on his Big Board.

 

"Another player certain to be dissected based on the mountain of tape he has already piled up -- having thrown almost 800 passes, when many juniors are about to start for the first time -- Kaaya is a talented quarterback with a big arm, touch and growing poise as he reads the whole field," Kiper wrote. "He continues to get better." The 6-foot-4, 209-pound Kaaya threw for 3,238 yards (61.2% completions) and a 16/5 TD/INT ratio last year after posting a sensational 26/12 TD/INT rate as a frosh.
 
 
Source: ESPN.com
May 16 - 6:21 PM

 

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23 hours ago, georg013 said:

Gordon is garbage. Opportunity is what has kept the white running back from prominence. Opportunity and ignorance.

Don't be ridiculous. There was a time when white RBs were very prominent in the NFL, along with white cornerbacks. So you're saying that NFL GMs who's job it is to win at all cost are purposely keeping the white RBs down?

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They're very different. Cook is a glider. Actually reminds me of Darren McFadden a little bit in terms of style. Not a lot of fancy moves, just explosive north-south running. He's not a big or strong back. More reliant on his speed.

 

I'm not the biggest McCaffrey fan, but he's more powerful and elusive. I think he's better with the ball in space. 

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2 hours ago, EBF said:

They're very different. Cook is a glider. Actually reminds me of Darren McFadden a little bit in terms of style. Not a lot of fancy moves, just explosive north-south running. He's not a big or strong back. More reliant on his speed.

 

I'm not the biggest McCaffrey fan, but he's more powerful and elusive. I think he's better with the ball in space. 

Cook is very good laterally. Much better than McFadden.  He just chooses not to dance much.  He's actually very strong.  He lead the nation in Yards After Contact per carry.  A lot of that is due to great balance and keeping his momentum going forward. Very good forward lean in traffic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pa4W1APuuvE

 

Cook looks to be a mid-to-low 4.4x while McCaffrey is close to 4.50-4.53.

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ESPN's David Lombardi wrote that Arizona State junior RB Kalen Ballage has "shown a freakish combination of strength and athleticism on multiple occasions."

 

Ballage is not the Sun Devils' lead back, as Demario Richard remains HC Todd Graham's main man. Even playing off-spotlight, Ballage still managed to impress in 2015, rushing for 653 yards (5.2 YPC) and four touchdowns while catching 12 passes for 60 yards. The 6-foot-3, 222-pounder also saw limited work as a kickoff returner. Graham has tinkered around with him as a linebacker in practice previously, but that has not been put into game action.
 
 
Source: ESPN.com 
May 17 - 10:47 PM

 

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Sports draft analyst Rob Rang wrote that USC junior WR JuJu Smith-Schuster's "frame and game" remind him of Terrell Owens.

 

Owens (6-foot-3, 223 pounds) and Smith-Schuster (6-foot-2, 215 pounds) do, indeed, share similar body types. While we're in the comparison market, ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. believes that Dez Bryant comps for JuJu will run rampant over the countryside in the coming months. Last season, Smith-Schuster caught 89 passes for 1,454 yards and 10 touchdowns. He underwent surgery to repair a broken right hand in early November, but even that did not force him to miss a game.
 
 
Source: CBS Sports 
May 19 - 10:45 PM

 

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Louisville HC Bobby Petrino called junior WR Reggie Bonnafon "one of the greatest kids in the world to coach."

 

For [Bonnafon], it was a matter of -- he didn’t have a lot of experience playing the position [of wide receiver]," Petrino said, "so he was working hard to learn everything. This really gives him a chance to use his natural ability." The 6-foot-3, 206-pounder switched over to receiver from quarterback this spring. He offers a silly amount of athletic talent -- 43.5-inch vertical jump during offseason testing -- and could thrive as a receiver if he can make the full adjustment. While the Cardinals initially recruited (and played) him as a quarterback, Bonnafon is no stranger to the outside, having suited up at receiver for several years in high school prior to a position shift his senior year. If you aren't already on the Louisville bandwagon, it is going to be full-up by the time August camp rolls around. Find your seats now.
 
Source: ESPN.com

 

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ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. wrote that we should not be surprised if Minnesota senior QB Mitch Leidner is a first-rounder in 2017.

 

Kiper and colleague Todd McShay might be sharing a brain (or, if nothing else, notes), as the same week that the former pushed Leidner as a potential surprise non-surprise first-rounder, the latter mocked the 6-foot-4, 237-pounder to pick No. 25, which would be held by the Cowboys according to Vegas Super Bowl odds (a reliable metric if there ever was one). Last season, Leidner threw for 2,701 yards (59.5% completions) with a 14/10 TD/INT ratio. We really don't see a first-rounder here, though he does have the sort of frame and physical style of play that would make him worth a developmental selection after Day 1 in 2017.
 
 
Source: ESPN Insider 
May 21 - 7:46 PM

 

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