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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Dalvin Cook, Vikings

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1 hour ago, Jello_Biafra said:

Surprised they haven't signed someone. Who else is on the roster?

I’m guessing the Vikings will draft someone rendering that RB irrelevant except for those who want a handcuff for Cook. Hoping it’s no RB I care about.

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Posted (edited)
On 3/17/2019 at 8:58 PM, Jello_Biafra said:

Surprised they haven't signed someone. Who else is on the roster?

The Vikings do not have any cap space to work with right now and they are trying to find money to give to Adam Theiolen as well.

They can't afford to sign a free agent for anything. They have Abdullah, Boone and Roc Thomas from last year. I don't think any of them are really worth having even with Cooks injury history the last 2 years. I am expecting a rookie pick to possibly supplant them as the main back up RB.

I saw a little of Boone and Thomas last year. They both have a long way to go and not sure they are good enough for more than the scout team.

Edited by Biabreakable

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Any chance MIN goes for a rb maybe round 3, 4?

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36 minutes ago, Gandalf said:

I’m guessing the Vikings will draft someone rendering that RB irrelevant except for those who want a handcuff for Cook. Hoping it’s no RB I care about.

I dont know... Cook is in line for a big season but he has had 2 seasons of injury. If he gets hurt again and whoever they draft looks good, that could be it. I dont think that will happen but it certainly is possible 

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21 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Any chance MIN goes for a rb maybe round 3, 4?

The Vikings have a lot of needs so I don't think its likely they draft RB that high.

I will likely be dissapointed but I really think the Vikigs should select two offensive linemen in the first 3 rounds. They also need a defensive tackle. They also need a 3rd WR. 

If they would just cut Kyle Rudolph some of this could change, but they won't. If they did TE would be a high priority and it should be because Rudolph sucks, but they will draft a TE at some point this year, I do think there are a lot of good ones, so maybe someone good can be had later in the draft.

So I would say RB is more likely than TE but less likely than offensive line, defensive tackle and WR.

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On 3/17/2019 at 11:05 PM, Dr. Dan said:

Any chance MIN goes for a rb maybe round 3, 4?

I wouldn’t think so. It’s not really a need that would be a wasted pick but I could see them drafting a backup later in the draft.

Tex

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No discussion of the Mattison pick?  3rd round draft capital and talented player competition. 

Any impact on Cooks value? 

I think the Vikings will probably run some form of committee here... 

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2 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

No discussion of the Mattison pick?  3rd round draft capital and talented player competition. 

Any impact on Cooks value? 

I think the Vikings will probably run some form of committee here... 

I think this negatively effects Cook as well.  

I think there should be talk about this similar to D. Harris drafted by New England. 

For Cook I think he still gets majority of carries and workload, but may try to limit his touches with injury history.

For Michel I think NE loved Harris' do it all skills and will be primary backup (until playoffs when J. White takes over).

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as much as people are talking about gurley owners needing to cuff henderson, cook owners should probably cuff mattison even more.  

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41 minutes ago, beef said:

as much as people are talking about gurley owners needing to cuff henderson, cook owners should probably cuff mattison even more.  

Fortunately he is much cheaper.

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2 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

No discussion of the Mattison pick?  3rd round draft capital and talented player competition. 

Any impact on Cooks value? 

I think the Vikings will probably run some form of committee here... 

We were talking about it a bit in the Vikings thread.

My initial reaction to Mattison was negative because he isn't a RB I was looking at for fantasy at all before the draft.

While Matt Asiata and Latavius Murray have been useful RB at times when starters were injured, in my opinion they were not players the team could rely on exclusively, even when Cook was out, Murray runs hot and cold, generally running better with his early carries than his later ones.

Mattison is supposedly a bell cow type RB who did have high numbers of carries in college. He runs between the tackles with some good pad level and decent footwork to change gaps. He has some decent burst and can move a pile. He can catch the ball pretty well. He needs to work on his blocking but he has the size to be successful there.

To me Mattison was not worth a 3rd round pick. The Vikings did trade down multiple times before selecting him with pick 102.

The biggest reason to be interested in Mattison is because of Dalvin Cooks injuries his first two seasons. If Cook misses time again then Mattison will be busy.

When Cook is healthy I don't expect Mattison to do much. Maybe he can win short yardage role (Murray lost this to Cook last season despite the size difference) that they might like to save Cook from (one of Cooks weakest traits is runnning with power).

I don't see any impact on Cooks value. At best Mattison gets as much action as Murray did. 

The best thing I can say in Mattisons favor is that Kubiak has found good RB with later picks who no one had heard of before but turned out to be a great fit for the ZBS blocking scheme they run.

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I think there is some impact on Cook's value.  I don't think the Vikings would invest a 3rd rounder if they were happy with their current RB room, and I think Mattison is good enough to push for some touches.  He looks a lot more laterally dynamic than Murray was and is an all purpose type of back. 

At minimum it is a hedge against Cook getting hurt again.  To me this also says that they want to help Cook stay healthy by managing his workload a bit... 

I think this is a little like the Gurley/Henderson situation in LAR in that it doesn't seem like a great landing spot for Mattison, but he will probably get usage with decent talent and draft capital. 

I seem to be leading the hype train on this one, but full disclosure I was also saying I expected the Vikings to draft a good RB somewhat highly.  I also liked Mattison going in to the draft after a few scouts including Waldman touted him... So.. I'm biased. 

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Not only no negative impact on Cook but actually a positive for Cook owners in that you got an easily identifiable and what should be fairly cheap handcuff.

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1 hour ago, kittenmittens said:

I think there is some impact on Cook's value.  I don't think the Vikings would invest a 3rd rounder if they were happy with their current RB room, and I think Mattison is good enough to push for some touches.  He looks a lot more laterally dynamic than Murray was and is an all purpose type of back. 

At minimum it is a hedge against Cook getting hurt again.  To me this also says that they want to help Cook stay healthy by managing his workload a bit... 

I think this is a little like the Gurley/Henderson situation in LAR in that it doesn't seem like a great landing spot for Mattison, but he will probably get usage with decent talent and draft capital. 

I seem to be leading the hype train on this one, but full disclosure I was also saying I expected the Vikings to draft a good RB somewhat highly.  I also liked Mattison going in to the draft after a few scouts including Waldman touted him... So.. I'm biased. 

I don't think it impacts Cooks role much if at all. If anything Cook has been underutilized in his time with the Vikings so far.

I totally agree with you that Mattison looks better with his footwork and change of direction ability than Murray did. 

When thinking about how much importance the Vikings put on this 2nd RB role I think you should consider that the Vikings asked Murray to take a pay cut to veteran minimum last year, if he didn't accept they were going to let him go and move on with CJ Ham and Matt Boone as Cooks back up. Murray accepted the pay cut because he wanted to stay with the team. 

Matt Boone didn't look good last year. He missed holes. He wasn't impressive at all. I don't think he is any threat to Mattison being the COP and primary back up to Cook.

The Vikings traded down 3 times before settling on Mattison with pick 102. Baded on RIck Spielmans comments getting a RB was a priority for them at that stage of the draft so they took the best RB left available.

To me that is very different than what the Rams did trading up for Henderson, and I do think Henderson is a better player than Mattison is. He wasn't an option for the Vikings though. Hard to say who they would have selected if all of the RB had been available.

I would like to hear more about what you and Matt liked about Mattison before the draft. I have done some digging on him and I haven't found much. I did come across a clip of Matt talking about one play of Mattisons that I think demonstrates he is better between the tackles than Murray is. He has better pad level the way he runs and I think he has better footwork than Murray has. He isn't nearly as fast as Murray is however.

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A few of my preferred draft analysts were onto him early so I watched some of his runs.  I thought he had excellent contact balance from what I saw.  He also has good receiving ability while being a good sized back with decent power.  He really reminds me of Kareem Hunt if I were comparing him to another back. 

He did a bit better in the 40 at his pro day, but still not breakaway speed fast.  I think it was 4.59 or something after adjusting for friendly pro day timings. 

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2019 NFL Breakout Players: Here's a look at 10 who are poised for big things this season

Excerpt:

After spending some time with Cook last summer in training camp and watching him run, I expected him to bounce back from his torn ACL in 2017 with a big season. It didn't happen.

Cook rushed for 615 yards and missed five games with a hamstring injury. Early in the season, he didn't have the same pop in his running he had before the ACL. There were also offensive line issues.

Cook did average 4.6 yards per rush, which shows it wasn't a bad season, but just not the productive one that was expected. Now another year removed from the injury, with an offensive line that should be improved, I expect a big season from Cook. Coach Mike Zimmer wants to run the ball and Cook will be the guy who does it.

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1 hour ago, TripItUp said:

"healthy" being the obvious key word in that title

 

Question for the thread:  if you were handicapping it, what odds would you give that Cook handles a full load in 14 games or more?

Same odds I'd give every other RB.

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Just now, Jello_Biafra said:

Same odds I'd give every other RB.

So you'd bet me a grand that Cook has as many carries as Zeke?

 

Because I'm taking action on that bet.

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1 minute ago, TripItUp said:

So you'd bet me a grand that Cook has as many carries as Zeke?

 

Because I'm taking action on that bet.

When did having as many carries as Zeke get mentioned? 

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Jello_Biafra said:

When did having as many carries as Zeke get mentioned? 

okay, I'm taking action that Zeke plays more games than Cook.

 

The notion that Cook has the same injury risk as Zeke is of course ridiculous. Hence, the notion that "all players can get injured"  is a lazy argument in favor of players with injury riddled histories like Dalvin "crystal" Cook.

 

 

Edited by TripItUp

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2 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

okay, I'm taking action that Zeke plays more games than Cook.

 

The notion that Cook has the same injury risk as Zeke is of course ridiculous. Hence, the notion that "all players can get injured"  is sill or intellectually dishonest.

So many players had the injury risk label their first couple years turned out were just unlucky. Its basing a conclusion off a small sample.

Torn ACL, unlucky. Hamstring injury possibly from returning too soon, maybe unlucky. 

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23 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

okay, I'm taking action that Zeke plays more games than Cook.

 

The notion that Cook has the same injury risk as Zeke is of course ridiculous. Hence, the notion that "all players can get injured"  is a lazy argument in favor of players with injury riddled histories like Dalvin "crystal" Cook.

 

 

The guy's been in the league 2 years. Not much of a history to be had. As far as these bets you're proclaiming you'll make, if you were smart, you wouldn't make. Cowboys can have a playoff spot clinched and they rest Zeke, Cook could limp his way to 16 games. I agree I have more faith in Zeke being healthy a whole year, but not just over Cook, over every other RB. I think Zeke offers the least amount of injury risk than any RB. Give Cook a couple more years before you start diving into his historical facts.

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37 minutes ago, Jello_Biafra said:

Same odds I'd give every other RB.

Past injury is the most predictive indicator of future injury. 

A player who has torn an ACL in the past is more likely to tear an ACL than a player who has not had that injury. 

Citation needed... Can't remember where that is from but it's data based. 

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1 minute ago, kittenmittens said:

Past injury is the most predictive indicator of future injury. 

A player who has torn an ACL in the past is more likely to tear an ACL than a player who has not had that injury. 

Citation needed... Can't remember where that is from but it's data based. 

@Dr. Dan   Is this true?

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3 minutes ago, Jello_Biafra said:

@Dr. Dan   Is this true?

Yes and no...

Depending what type of graft is used (hamstring tendon doubled, hamstring tendon quadrupled, Patellar tendon) the new ACL can be up to 4 times stronger than the original. Granted, these are tendons, not liagments...  big difference. Ligaments stretch, tendons do not. Over time the new acl does go through a sort of ligamentation where it changes into a ligament at the cellular level. If rehabbed properly, I wouldnt expect this ACL to tear again in some cases.

Now, if this was a non contact tear, then I would be very worried. Non contact tears are usually the result of some kind of anatomical cause. Some examples: increased angle from the hip to the center of the knee (which is why female athletes are more prone to acl tears... in fact, many of these are more common in women), smaller notch where the acl attaches to the femur (think more force per area if this area is smaller than it should be), looser ligaments, improper muscular balance, and neuromuscular control. 

I dont recall if Cooks injury was non contact or not. if it was a non contact then I'd probably avoid completely for fear of the contralateral side tearing at some point. 

If cooks injury was the result of contact, no I would not say that he is at an increased risk for future tears. However, I'm also not convinced he rehabbed well considering he had hamstring issues when he came back - huge red flag that hes asking his hamstrings to do more, possibly help the acl, but he didnt have the strength or flexibility to do so. So... he may be at risk for tearing it again if he did not rehab well, which is something I'm wondering myself. He had an entire offseason to get it right. 

 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I dont recall if Cooks injury was non contact or not.

Non contact.

I'd know because I got this one dynasty team that in a 12 month period lost my top QB, TE and top two RB's to non-contact ACL's.  Watson,  Guice, Dalvin and Hunter Henry.

Edited by menobrown
ETA-actually out of those I mentioned I'm not sure if Guice was non-contact. I remember his run but can't remember if he got tackled or if he just went down. The others were 100% sure non-contact, with two coming in non-contact practice.

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6 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Yes and no...

Depending what type of graft is used (hamstring tendon doubled, hamstring tendon quadrupled, Patellar tendon) the new ACL can be up to 4 times stronger than the original. Granted, these are tendons, not liagments...  big difference. Ligaments stretch, tendons do not. Over time the new acl does go through a sort of ligamentation where it changes into a ligament at the cellular level. If rehabbed properly, I wouldnt expect this ACL to tear again in some cases.

Now, if this was a non contact tear, then I would be very worried. Non contact tears are usually the result of some kind of anatomical cause. Some examples: increased angle from the hip to the center of the knee (which is why female athletes are more prone to acl tears... in fact, many of these are more common in women), smaller notch where the acl attaches to the femur (think more force per area if this area is smaller than it should be), looser ligaments, improper muscular balance, and neuromuscular control. 

I dont recall if Cooks injury was non contact or not. if it was a non contact then I'd probably avoid completely for fear of the contralateral side tearing at some point. 

If cooks injury was the result of contact, no I would not say that he is at an increased risk for future tears. However, I'm also not convinced he rehabbed well considering he had hamstring issues when he came back - huge red flag that hes asking his hamstrings to do more, possibly help the acl, but he didnt have the strength or flexibility to do so. So... he may be at risk for tearing it again if he did not rehab well, which is something I'm wondering myself. He had an entire offseason to get it right.

Non contact.

How have a lot of players had non contact knee injuries come back without any problems?

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To be fair Cook had some injury woes in college too, most notably that he tore his labrum twice. Once while just walking around...

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1 minute ago, cloppbeast said:

 

How have a lot of players had non contact knee injuries come back without any problems?

Yes, 70-80% of ACL tears are non-contact.

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1 hour ago, TripItUp said:

okay, I'm taking action that Zeke plays more games than Cook.

Aren’t you concerned that Zeke is one titty grab away from a yearlong suspension?

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Just now, FreeBaGeL said:

To be fair Cook had some injury woes in college too, most notably that he tore his labrum twice. Once while just walking around...

He did but then you got a guy like Frank Gore who tore both ACL's and had both shoulders operated on all just in college and he is kicking around at 36.

I read a lot of Dr. Chao's stuff and is pretty adamant that players being injury prone is not true.

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1 minute ago, tangfoot said:

Aren’t you concerned that Zeke is one titty grab away from a yearlong suspension?

Fine, Christian MccAffrey, Alvin Kamara

 

I'd take action on most top RBs vs. Cook in games played or total touches.

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24 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Non contact.

How have a lot of players had non contact knee injuries come back without any problems?

A variety of reasons. I have my own opinion on this as well. the most likely is that the anatomical issue is corrected in surgery and the athlete rehabs properly. The contralateral side may never be an issue because it may not have the anatomical anamoly. 

I'm just more worried about an athlete coming back from a noncontact than contact

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22 minutes ago, menobrown said:

 

I read a lot of Dr. Chao's stuff and is pretty adamant that players being injury prone is not true.

the injury prone label is thrown around too much, and is used in cases where it does not apply at all. pet peeve

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I would say injury prone players exist.

Looking at you, Leonard Fournette. 

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Posted (edited)

Here is something I found on it.  I'm not convinced of anything, I just read about past injury being predictive several times and started believing it, and am happy to be wrong about it and defer to expertise.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4196323/

Results:
ACL injury was linked to a successive injury of the same ACL, and other injuries in the LE. HS was associated with subsequent ipsilateral HS and knee injuries. Previous achilles tendon rupture increased the risk of an analogous injury on the contralateral side. An ankle sprain was associated with a re‐injury of either the ipsilateral or the contralateral ankle. Post‐injury changes were present in strength, proprioception, and kinematics, which may have led to overall changes in motor control and function.

Conclusion:
This review provides insight into the changes occurring following common LE injuries, how these changes potentially affect risk for future injury, and address the needs of the active adult population in rehabilitation.

Clinical Relevance:
Current research on previous injury and re‐injury is of high quality, but scarce quantity. Deficits following an injury are known, but how these deficits correlate or lead to re‐injury requires further exploration.

 

Edited by kittenmittens

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Frank Gore was injury prone, until he wasn't. It's a mix of conditioning, genes, and luck, but I think it's too early to tell if Cook and Fournette will be marred by injuries for their whole career. 

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24 minutes ago, Faust said:
Quote

ESPN likes Cook to produce 1,152 rushing yards on 255 carries with five touchdowns, as well as 415 yards a two more scores on 54 catches.

The above works out to 16 rushing attempts and 3.3 receptions per game at 4.5 ypc and 7.6 ypr which are only slightly lower than Cooks career averages thus far of 4.7 ypc and 7.7 ypr

This would be 253 points in PPR or 15.8 points per game

Question for the SP you take the over or the under on this projection?

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20 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

The above works out to 16 rushing attempts and 3.3 receptions per game at 4.5 ypc and 7.6 ypr which are only slightly lower than Cooks career averages thus far of 4.7 ypc and 7.7 ypr

This would be 253 points in PPR or 15.8 points per game

Question for the SP you take the over or the under on this projection?

If he stays healthy I will take the over on that.

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51 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

The above works out to 16 rushing attempts and 3.3 receptions per game at 4.5 ypc and 7.6 ypr which are only slightly lower than Cooks career averages thus far of 4.7 ypc and 7.7 ypr 

This would be 253 points in PPR or 15.8 points per game

Question for the SP you take the over or the under on this projection?

I'm taking the over.

I can see that as a realistic expectation for his rushing stats but I fully expect his receiving to increase.

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