2016 Free Agency-There is NO Offseason-Post Rumors Here (1 Viewer)

Here's a look at key offseason dates running through the NFL's Annual Meeting from March 20-23 in Boca Raton, Fla. Some dates have league-wide importance. Other dates can potentially affect specific player contracts and the salary cap of individual teams because they are crucial to the timing of contract restructures, pay cuts and players being released. Notable players have been highlighted on the appropriate date with how the event is specified in their respective contracts.

Feb. 8

The waiver system begins for 2016. Players with fewer than four years of service for benefit purposes are subject to waivers and their contracts can be claimed by other teams. Players with four or more years of service time become free agents when released.

Feb. 9
Second day of waiver period

Chargers: Quarterback Philip Rivers' $16.5 million 2016 base salary, which was guaranteed for injury at signing, becomes fully guaranteed.

Feb. 10
Third day of waiver period

Saints : The $10.85 million of quarterback Drew Brees' $19.75 million 2016 base salary becomes fully guaranteed without an offset. This means the Saints wouldn't be able to reduce the guaranteed money owed to Brees in the extremely unlikely event he is released by the amount of his new deal with another team. In other words, Brees would receive the $10.85 million from the Saints as well as the full salary from his new contract with another club. ... Safety Jairus Byrd's $7.4 million 2016 base salary is fully guaranteed. The $6 million was guaranteed for injury at signing. ... Linebacker Dannell Ellerbe's $4.1 million 2016 base salary is fully guaranteed. It was guaranteed for injury as a part of his trade to the Saints from the Miami Dolphins last March. New Orleans will get $4.5 million of cap space if Ellerbe is released before the guarantee vests.

Browns: Cornerback Joe Haden's $10.1 million 2016 base salary is fully guaranteed. It was guaranteed for injury at signing.

Raiders: $3.5 million of linebacker Curtis Lofton's $5.35 million 2016 base salary is fully guaranteed. The $3.5 million was guaranteed for injury at signing ... linebacker Nate Allen's $4.9 million 2016 base salary is fully guaranteed. Allen's base salary was guaranteed for injury at signing.

Feb. 11
Fourth day of waiver period

Panthers: Wide receiver Jerricho Cotchery and safety Roman Harper's 2016 through 2018 contract years void to make them unrestricted free agents when the 2016 league year starts on March 9. There will be $1.35 million and $900,000 salary cap charges for the Panthers from the bonus proration relating to Cotchery and Harper's three contract years.

Feb. 12
Fifth day of waiver period

Broncos: Wide receiver Demaryius Thomas' $8.5 million 2017 base salary, which was guaranteed for injury at signing, becomes fully guaranteed without an offset.

Cardinals: Cornerback Patrick Peterson's $9.75 million base salary is fully guaranteed. It was guaranteed for injury at signing ... Quarterback Carson Palmer's $7.15 million 2016 base salary, which increased by $800,000 from $6.35 million because of an earned salary escalator, and $6.35 million roster bonus due on the fifth day of the 2016 league year (March 13) become fully guaranteed. Each one was guaranteed for injury at signing.

49ers: The 2016 through 2018 contract years for wide receiver Anquan Boldin void. He will become an unrestricted free agent when the 2016 league year starts. The 49ers will have a $2.727 million salary cap charge from the bonus proration associated with these contract years.

Bills: Wide receiver Percy Harvin's 2016 and 2017 contract years void to make him an unrestricted free agent when the 2016 league year starts. There will be a $2 million salary cap charge for the Bills because of the bonus proration from these two contract years.

Feb. 13
Sixth day of waiver period

Seahawks: Several Seattle players have their entire 2016 base salaries become fully guaranteed, including cornerback Richard Sherman ($12.569 million), quarterback Russell Wilson ($12.342 million), defensive end Cliff Avril ($6 million) and linebacker K.J. Wright($5.25 million) ... Linebacker Bobby Wagner's $7 million 2016 base salary also becomes fully guaranteed. It will reduce to $3 million if the Seahawks commit to making the necessary $4 million payment to exercise an option for Wagner's 2019 contract year. This can be done as early as the first day of the 2016 league year but no later than the fifth day (March 13) ... $6 million of safety Earl Thomas' $8 million 2016 base salary is fully guaranteed. All of these respective salaries of the players were guaranteed for injury at signing.

Feb. 16
22 days before the start of the 2016 league year

This is the first day of a two-week period where teams can designate franchise or transition players. Chicago Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, Denver Broncos linebacker Von Miller, Carolina Panthers cornerback Josh Norman and New York Jets defensive endMuhammad Wilkerson are the players most likely to be franchised. Miller's franchise tag number should be $14.076 million if the 2016 salary cap is set at $153.4 million. It should be $15.434 million, $14.471 million and $13.784 million for Wilkerson, Jeffery and Norman, respectively

Feb. 23-29

The NFL Scouting Combine takes place in Indianapolis, Indiana. Meetings between agents of impending free agents and teams routinely occur at the Combine, although these types of discussions are prohibited by NFL rules. Teams are rarely penalized for tampering with players from other teams when those players are scheduled to become free agents.

March 1

The period for designating franchise or transition players ends at 4 p.m. ET. TheWashington Redskins could franchise quarterback Kirk Cousins for $19.671 million (assumes $153.4 million 2016 salary cap) if a long-term deal isn't in place before this deadline.

March 3

Patriots: Deflategate grabs the spotlight once again as the NFL's appeal of Brady's vacated four-game suspension is scheduled to be heard in the 2nd Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals in New York.

March 4
Five days before the start of the 2016 league year

Chiefs: The 2016 through 2019 contract years for linebacker Tamba Hali void. He will become an unrestricted free agent when the 2016 league year starts. Kansas City is going to have a $4 million salary cap charge from the bonus proration associated these contract years unless Hali signs a contract extension before this voiding date.

Browns: This is the deadline for center Alex Mack to give the team written notice to void the final three years (through 2018) of his five-year, $42 million deal, which are worth $24 million.

March 7-9

NFL teams are allowed to negotiate with the agents of prospective unrestricted free agents during a two-day period ending at 3:59:59 p.m. ET on March 9. During the two day window, prospective unrestricted free agents can't visit teams or have direct contact with team employees, except those from their current clubs. A player's ability to re-sign with his current club isn't affected by the rule. The negotiating period does not apply to unsigned players receiving restricted free agent, franchise or transition tenders. Players who don't have an agent are also prohibited from having discussions with teams during this period.

March 8
Last day of the 2015 league year

Broncos: The $19 million base salary ($21.5 million cap number) of quarterback Peyton Manning becomes fully guaranteed. If Manning decides to retire or is released, the Broncos will gain $19 million of cap room.

Patriots: This is the deadline for the team to exercise options in the contracts of tight endRob Gronkowski and linebacker Jerod Mayo. A $6 million payment is required to pick up Gronkowski's contract years through 2019. Mayo's option is for his 2016 contract year. He has an $11.4 million 2016 cap number, which includes a $4 million roster bonus due on the first day of the league year. The Patriots would pick up $7 million of cap room by declining Mayo's option.

March 9

First day of the 2016 league year

The top 51 begins. Only the top 51 salaries (i.e., cap numbers), including unsigned franchise, transition, restricted free agent and exclusive rights tenders, on a team count against the salary cap during the offseason. All teams must be under the salary cap prior to 4 p.m. ET.

The 2016 league year and free agency begin at 4 p.m. ET.

The trading period begins at 4 p.m. ET.

The salary for the 2016 option year with 2012 first-round picks, which was guaranteed for injury upon exercise, becomes fully guaranteed. Some of the players include Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck ($16.155 million), Washington Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin ($16.155 million), Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Dontari Poe ($6.146 million),Philadelphia Eagles defensive end Fletcher Cox ($7.799 million), New England Patriotsdefensive end Chandler Jones ($7.799 million), Patriots linebacker Dont'a Hightower($7.751 million) and Minnesota Vikings safety Harrison Smith ($5.278 million).

Bills: $2.5 million of running back LeSean McCoy's $4.8 million 2016 base salary is already fully guaranteed. The remaining $2.3 million, which was guaranteed for injury at signing, becomes fully guaranteed.

March 10
Second day of the 2016 league year

Dolphins: Tight end Jordan Cameron's $7.5 million 2016 base salary is fully guaranteed. He has a $9.5 million 2016 cap number. Miami would pick $7.5 million of cap room by parting ways with Cameron before his salary is fully guaranteed.

March 11
Third day of 2016 league year

Panthers: Quarterback Cam Newton's $13 million 2016 base salary is fully guaranteed. It was guaranteed for injury at signing. Additionally, this is the deadline for the Panthers to pick up their option for Newton's 2020 contract year, which requires a $10 million payment. If Newton's 2020 option year is declined, the Panthers will still owe him the $10 million provided he is a member of the team on March 12 (the fourth day of the league year).

Vikings: Running back Adrian Peterson's $7 million 2016 base salary becomes fully guaranteed. His base salary was guaranteed for injury when the deal was signed. Peterson's $4 million roster bonus is payable.

Giants: $1 million of quarterback Eli Manning's $17.5 million 2016 base salary is already fully guaranteed. The remaining $16.5 million, which was guaranteed for injury at signing, becomes fully guaranteed.

Chiefs: $11 million of linebacker Justin Houston's $14.9 million 2016 base salary is already fully guaranteed. An additional $3.75 million and $6.75 of his $16.35 million 2017 base salary are fully guaranteed. The entire 2016 and 2017 base salaries were guaranteed for injury at signing.

Bears: $10 million of quarterback Jay Cutler's $16 million 2016 base salary is already fully guaranteed. The remaining $6 million, which was guaranteed for injury at signing, is fully guaranteed.

Buccaneers: Defensive tackle Gerald McCoy's $13.25 million 2017 base salary becomes fully guaranteed. It was guaranteed for injury upon McCoy's signing of his contract. 7.

Falcons : Wide receiver Julio Jones' $11.5 million 2017 base salary, which was guaranteed for injury at signing, is fully guaranteed.

Bengals: Wide receiver A.J. Green has a $6 million roster bonus payable.

Rams: Defensive end Chris Long has a $2 million roster bonus payable. If Long is unwilling to lower his $14.25 million 2016 cap number in a pay cut, he could be a cap casualty. The Rams would pick up $11.75 million of cap space by releasing him.

Bills: Defensive tackle Marcell Dareus' $9.75 million 2017 base salary, which was guaranteed for injury at signing, is fully guaranteed.

Broncos: Cornerback Aqib Talib's $8.5 million 2016 base salary becomes fully guaranteed. It was guaranteed for injury at signing.

Jets: Wide receiver Brandon Marshall's $9.5 million 2016 base salary, which was guaranteed for injury at signing, is fully guaranteed.

Lions: Linebacker DeAndre Levy's $5.25 million 2016 base salary is fully guaranteed. The $5.25 million was guaranteed for injury the deal was signed.

Cardinals: $2.25 million of offensive tackle Mike Iupati's $4.5 million 2016 base salary is already fully guaranteed. The other half becomes completely secure. $2 million of Iupati's $8 million 2017 base salary also becomes fully guaranteed. These amounts were guaranteed for injury at signing.

Raiders: Center Rodney Hudson's $7.35 million 2016 base salary is fully guaranteed. The $7.35 million was guaranteed for injury at signing

March 13

Fifth day of 2016 league year

Texans: Defensive end J.J. Watt's $10.5 million 2016 base salary and $10.5 million 2017 base salary become fully guaranteed. Both were guaranteed for injury upon Watt's signing of his contract in 2014.

Cowboys: Wide receiver Dez Bryant and offensive tackle Tyron Smith have money fully guaranteed. It's Bryant's $13 million 2017 base salary and Smith's $10 million 2016 base salary. These salaries were guaranteed for injury at signing.

Panthers: This is the last day of the team's five-day period to pick up their option for Luke Kuechly's 2021 contract year, which requires a $6 million payment. If the Panthers pass on Kuechly's 2021 contact year, he will still be owed the $6 million provided he is on their roster on March 14 (the sixth day of the league year). Kuechly's $1 million 2016 base salary, which was guaranteed for injury at signing, became fully guaranteed on March 11.

Dolphins: Center Mike Pouncey's $9 million 2016 base salary and $2 million of his $7.95 million 2017 base salary become fully guaranteed ... $6 million of offensive tackle Branden Albert's $8.425 million 2016 base salary is fully guaranteed ... Quarterback Ryan Tannehillhas $3.5 million of his $17.975 million 2017 base salary fully guaranteed. All of these amounts were guaranteed for injury at signing.

Broncos: Linebacker DeMarcus Ware has a $5 million roster bonus payable. His 2016 cap number is $11,666,668. Releasing Ware or him retiring would free up $10 million of cap space for the Broncos. ... Cornerback Chris Harris' $6.9 million 2016 base salary, which was guaranteed for injury at signing, is fully guaranteed.

Colts: Offensive tackle Anthony Castonzo and wide receiver T.Y. Hilton have their $2.5 million and $3 million 2016 base salaries, respectively, fully guaranteed. The base salaries were guaranteed for injury at signing. Castonzo and Hilton's respective $4.5 million and $6 million roster bonuses guaranteed for injury are payable.

Rams: Defensive end Robert Quinn's $7,777,777 2016 base salary, which was guaranteed for injury at signing, is fully guaranteed.

Buccaneers: Linebacker Lavonte David's $5 million 2016 base salary is fully guaranteed. It was guaranteed for injury when David signed his deal.

Steelers: Center Maurkice Pouncey ($3.5 million) and defensive end Cameron Heyward ($5 million) have roster bonuses payable.

March 15
Seventh day of 2016 league year

Bills: Defensive end Jerry Hughes' $4.525 million 2016 base salary is fully guaranteed, provided the team picked up the option for his 2019 contract year with a $6 million payment by the March 13 deadline or pay the same amount on this date for him still being on the roster after the option is declined. His 2016 base salary was guaranteed for injury when he signed his contract.

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Insein said:

Luck will be an interesting one. He's certainly worth the top money based on potential but does he want to take such a huge percentage of the cap when his team needs so much on offense and defense?

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massraider said:

Insein said:

Luck will be an interesting one. He's certainly worth the top money based on potential but does he want to take such a huge percentage of the cap when his team needs so much on offense and defense?

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What's the other option? Take a below-market value?

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Andy Dufresne said:

Doesn't the players union disallow big discounts?

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"It's going to be a shocking number, nine figures and probably a $20 million starting point per year, but again we will find the right number to get to."

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For several weeks now, at least a few times a week, a player, often fairly prominent enough, has agreed to a long-term extension with his existing club. And in the majority of those instances I've found myself wondering, why the hell that actually took place.

Of all times in the NFL schedule, why now?

Unless you are setting some new standard of pay for your particular position group or your current team is giving you such a premium in its compensation that offsets the ability to actually discern what the free-market will bear when the league year begins, then why put pen to paper in late January of early February?

I've got an answer for why this phenomenon occurs, but I'm going to make you read a bit more before I explain.

The fiscal provocations for doing so right now are, frankly, limited at best. Anyone who took Economics 101 and understands the basics of incentives, supply and demand would have to question the rush to sign a contract now. The combine, which is the official/unofficial tampering period when the market for every position group is actually set, is just two weeks away and the formal opening of free agency less than a month away.

The single-biggest risk in the NFL is that of injury, but by February, the vast majority of players have already played out the season (unless you are playing in the Super Bowl) and thus now the hammer of power has started to fit quite comfortably in their hands. They've survived. And the time to prosper is at hand, in March. And generally far less so than in January or February.

If you have a basic grasp of the way the NFL calendar works and understand that the salary cap is about to jump significantly -- not to mention that this is generally a very weak free agent class and that teams will have ample money to throw around -- you'd have to question why so many have been completed recently.

Add in the fact that players have such a finite prime of their careers, and the reality that most can't make anything close to market value until their second contracts with rookies deals so heavily slotted now, and it becomes even more counterintuitive to enter in to any sort of deep negotiations with your current team unless the player had multiple years remaining on his existing contract and/or was being paid like the best of breed.

Yet that has hardly been the case.

Travis Kelce, for instance, recently became a Chief more or less for life. Kelce also might have swallowed hard when he saw that Zach Ertz, who has been far less productive at the tight end spot, got a deal very similar to his. And trust me, the many teams who would have loved to have chatted with Kelce's reps at the combine, were scratching their heads. For Ertz's guaranteed money to be as close to Kelce's tells you all you need to know that both may have been better off playing it out.

But I can understand these gentlemen doing a deal after three years in the league, with them having a year left on their rookie contracts and having to play through another full season and stay healthy, then still with the possibility of a franchise tag looming after that.

I get that.

Much more than I can figure out what was going on with some of these other recent contracts. I would, however, generally advise anyone with a blue chip client playing things out until their current employer has to actually place that tag on them, which then forces the team to negotiate off that hefty figure rather than what the player had been making on his rookie deal.

I tend to think that the contract advisors working with, say Kirk Cousins, will take a very different tact than some of their peers who have recently bound their clients to new deals. Cousins and the Washington Redskins were nowhere close to a new deal coming out of the Senior Bowl, sources said, and Washington very well might have to apply the franchise tag in order to retain primary negotiating rights on the quarterback.

I applaud a strong-willed guy like Muhammad Wilkerson and his agent, who grasp the market forces now working in their favor and understand the power of resting on their considerable on-field accomplishments at this particular moment in time rather than rush to do something with the Jets.

Then there's Derek Wolfe, a difference-making defensive tackle in both the run and passing game. Wolfe recently opted to eschew the market and sign a team-friendly deal with theBroncos without ever even dipping his toe in the combine waters, and it is somewhat baffling. He was only going to expand his brand, drive his price up, but in the end, he'll watch as his talented-but-not-as-dynamic teammate Malik Jackson ends up bettering his deal on the opening market in a few weeks. Denver would not have been able to keep both and is doing cartwheels about retaining Wolfe at the level it was able to.

With a burgeoning pass rusher like Philadelphia's Vinny Curry, who was being looked at by other teams similarly to how a guy like Buffalo's Jerry Hughes was a year ago, to have never even waited for his agent to sniff around on contracts with other teams at the combine, boggles my mind. He is precisely the kind of kid who may have done far better than many may have expected given his skills set and the acute premium that is placed on young pass rushers.

So, you wonder, why the heck is this taking place?

I'll let you in on a dirty little secret. Agents don't want to be fired.

They rue making the kind of substantial investments it takes these days to land first- and second-day draft picks, knowing they won't make any real money on these players for at least 4-5 years, yet will have to expend big bucks to train them for the combine and pray that they keep them until they sign their next deals.

So, to return to my earlier point about the lack of economic incentives for quality players to be signing extensions now, I'd venture to say for many of their representatives, the incentives to take some deal right now are very significant. A bird in hand is worth two in the bush, especially if you never make it to the bush.

The fear of training and cultivating a top player only to have him fire you before he hits the free agent market is very real and that's why this time of the calendar year can be so fertile for many NFL teams. Trust me, they realize this in front offices and they use it to their advantage.

And there are some agents who operate a lot more like McDonald's (quantity over quality and more concerned with ABC -- Always Be Closing -- rather than maximizing each individual's earning potential) than, say, The Palm, which caters each meal to the individual diner.

Very often, the economic incentives (or disincentives) for the agent will carry the day and obscure the reality for the player himself.

I've asked many execs at the NFLPA about this situation time and time again and there is no easy solution. They realize that even trying to further police the illegal poaching of clients is an exercise in diminishing returns, since almost always there is no paper train and the player is not willing to divulge that his new agent solicited him illegally.

I've suggested trying to create a two-week buffer period in February where no contracts can be done, but the union knows the NFL likely won't agree to it. And even if it did, there would still be periods on either side of the moratorium where teams would naturally push for contracts and that agents would still be fearful of losing clients -- and, in some cases, willing to do deals that won't make sense in the future.

Regardless, to me, now is the time to wait for young and talented NFL players. Now is the time to stand your ground and to use the league calendar to your advantage. Now is the time to make those on the other side of the negotiating table sweat as much as you can make them, because right now -- and the span just before the start of training camp -- is one of the few times when players and agents can actually make them do so.

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The 2015-2016 NFL season officially went in the books last Sunday, and the Scouting Combine is only a few weeks away. Free agency opens on March 9. With front offices and coaching staffs settled, impending free agents identified, and salary cap situations beginning to clarify, here is a look at the four most glaring positional needs for every club entering the 2016 offseason.

Teams are listed loosely in order of roster quality.
"RFA" = Restricted Free Agent

Seattle Seahawks

Notable Free Agents: LT Russell Okung, OLB Bruce Irvin, NT Brandon Mebane, CB Jeremy Lane, WR Jermaine Kearse, RB Christine Michael (RFA), OG J.R. Sweezy, DT Ahtyba Rubin, C Patrick Lewis (RFA), P Jon Ryan, QBTarvaris Jackson, RB Fred Jackson, DT Demarcus Dobbs, T/G Alvin Bailey (RFA), RB Bryce Brown

Offensive Line: Due to Russell Wilson's movement ability and position coach Tom Cable's penchant for maximizing talent, the Seahawks have skated by with sub-par line play for the past several seasons. An aggressive mindset will be required for GM John Schneider to patch up the unit this spring. LT Russell Okung and RG J.R. Sweezy's contracts are up, while LG Justin Britt and RT Garry Gilliam are coming off miserable years. The Seahawks played in-season musical chairs at center after trading away Max Unger. Wilson's sack total (45) was the highest of his career. Look for Schneider to attack this weakness in both free agency and the draft.

Cornerback: Shutdown LCB Richard Sherman is still playing at an elite level going on age 28, but the rest of Seattle's cornerback corps has holes. RCB Deshawn Shead flashed promise in spurts, but was largely a liability. A late-season difference maker, slot corner Jeremy Lane's contract is up. Released by Seattle in December, Cary Williams was a colossal-if-predictable free agent bust. At very least, the Seahawks need a cornerback capable of making a serious run at a starting job. Re-signing Lane would be a nice first step toward solidifying this position group.

Wide Receiver: Tyler Lockett was highway robbery in the 2015 third round, but Doug Baldwin is entering his contract year and Jermaine Kearse is a candidate to get overpaid in free agency. 2014 second-rounder Paul Richardson is likely a bust. It's conceivable Baldwin could make offseason noise about his contract, which pays him just $4 million after a breakout 14-touchdown campaign. Jimmy Graham's blown-out knee enhances pass catcher as a need.

Defensive Line: Starting DTs Brandon Mebane and Ahtyba Rubin are scheduled for free agency, while RE Cliff Avriland LE Michael Bennett will both enter next season on the wrong side of 30. The Seahawks do have Avril and Bennett signed long term, to go with promising youngsters DT Jordan Hill, 25, and DE Frank Clark, 22. This isn't necessarily a weakness on Seattle's roster, but it's a position at which the team can afford to upgrade and likely will try.

New England Patriots

Notable Free Agents: DT Akiem Hicks, NT Sealver Siliga (RFA), CB Tarell Brown, RB LeGarrette Blount, OG Ryan Wendell, SS Nate Ebner, SS Tavon Wilson, MLB Dane Fletcher, RB Steven Jackson

Offensive Line: New England's most glaring 2015 deficiency was its interior offensive line, where rotating guardsJosh Kline, Tre' Jackson, and Shaq Mason were frequently beaten in pass protection and C Bryan Stork endured a sub-par, injury-shortened year. As Stork (25), Jackson (23), and Mason (22) are all young and growing, it's possible the Patriots will bank on improvement from within. After firing position coach Dave DeGuglielmoimmediately after the season, however, Bill Belichick very clearly knows this was his team's primary weakness.

Running Back: Dion Lewis will return from his torn ACL, but LeGarrette Blount is up for free agency after suffering a year-ending hip injury, and James White is best employed as a lightly used role player. This may finally be the offseason where Belichick targets a true three-down back capable of both churning yards in the run game and contributing in the pass game. If free agent Matt Forte is willing to sign for a reasonable price, he'd fit beautifully in Foxboro.

Tight End: The Patriots are expected to release Scott Chandler after a disappointing campaign. Belichick and OCJosh McDaniels value the capability of running two-tight end sets because they add versatility and diversity to personnel packages, and can result in mismatches in both the run and pass games. An intriguing in-house prospect is 2015 sixth-rounder AJ Derby, an ex-college quarterback who plays with a mean streak but spent his rookie year on I.R.

Wide Receiver: Brandon LaFell ($2.8 million) and Danny Amendola ($6.5 million) are candidates for release.Julian Edelman turns 30 in May. Enigmatic underachiever Aaron Dobson has 16 catches over the past two seasons. A pair of cheap, flier-type veteran signings might make sense. Young wideouts often struggle to grasp the Patriots' complex route concepts.

Carolina Panthers

Notable Free Agents: CB Josh Norman, CB Charles Tillman, SS Roman Harper, FB Mike Tolbert, OG Amini Silatolu, DT Kyle Love, DE Frank Alexander, P Brad Nortman, CB Cortland Finnegan, OG Chris Scott, WR Stephen Hill (RFA)

Cornerback: While Josh Norman seems like a virtual lock for either the franchise tag or a long-term deal, Carolina's cornerback cupboard is bare beyond him and slot corner Bene Benwikere, who is coming off a broken left leg. RCB Charles Tillman and fill-in slot CB Cortland Finnegan are free agents. With DC Sean McDermottrunning a Cover 3 defense, expect GM Dave Gettleman to zero in on big, long-armed cornerbacks capable of making plays on the ball.

Safety: The Panthers have successfully hid SS Roman Harper's coverage limitations, but it's time for new blood as Harper enters free agency at age 33. One in-house candidate for a bigger role is rising third-year S Tre Boston, who didn't embarrass himself as a late-season rookie starter in 2014. Boston, however, is not quite the true "box safety" Cover 3 defenses tend to employ. The Panthers may target a tone setter to complement FS Kurt Coleman.

Defensive End: Building the Panthers in the likeness of his old Giants teams, Gettleman has stocked the roster with talented defensive linemen that play in a deep rotation, keeping its members fresh. Wave tackle Kyle Love's contract is up, while RE Jared Allen ($8.5 million) and LE Charles Johnson ($10.75 million) are owed gargantuan base salaries. Johnson, DTs Kawann Short and Dwan Edwards, and DE Mario Addison are all entering contract years.

Offensive Line: Carolina masked its shortcomings up front by playing run-heavy offense and dialing up max protections on passing downs. LT Michael Oher and RT Mike Remmers remained liabilities; Oher graded out dead last in Pro Football Focus' run-blocking grades among 76 qualified offensive tackles, while Remmers was most memorably dominated by Broncos OLB Von Miller in Super Bowl 50. The contracts of Oher, Remmers, C Ryan Kalil, and LG Andrew Norwell all expire after 2016.

Green Bay Packers

Notable Free Agents: CB Casey Hayward, OLB Nick Perry, NT B.J. Raji, DE Letroy Guion, OLB Mike Neal, RBJames Starks, WR James Jones, K Mason Crosby, FB John Kuhn, TE Andrew Quarless, QB Scott Tolzien, T/GDon Barclay, SS Sean Richardson

Inside Linebacker: The Packers plan to move Clay Matthews back outside, creating a void at inside linebacker that 2015 fourth-round pick Jake Ryan didn't seem ready to solve. Green Bay's next-best option is Sam Barrington, who played poorly in 2014 before suffering a year-ending foot injury in the 2015 season opener. Nate Palmer was totally ineffective in his place. This is a position at which GM Ted Thompson needs to make multiple additions.

Defensive Line: Multiple reinforcements are also needed on the defensive line, where NT B.J. Raji and DE Letroy Guion are free agents, and to this point 2013 first-round pick Datone Jones has only worked his way into a rotational role. 27-year-old (in May) LE Mike Daniels is the Packers' lone surefire building block in the trenches.

Tight End: Green Bay has lacked a seam-stretching tight end since Jermichael Finley's career-ending neck injury.Richard Rodgers is a plodder with zero run-after-catch ability, and underachiever Andrew Quarless is headed to free agency. The Packers figure to hope for improvement from within at wide receiver, where Jordy Nelson (ACL) returns, Randall Cobb is still only 25, and Jeff Janis, Jared Abbrederis, Ty Montgomery, and Davante Adamsprovide youthful hope. Thompson needs to find Aaron Rodgers a legitimate weapon at tight end.

Running Back: The Packers' only two running backs signed for 2016 are Eddie Lacy and John Crockett. James Starks and FB John Kuhn's contracts are up. After coach Mike McCarthy called out Lacy publicly for his conditioning after the season, expect Green Bay to bring in competition for its workhorse runner. Lacy is believed to have ballooned near 260 pounds.

Arizona Cardinals

Notable Free Agents: FS Rashad Johnson, FS Tony Jefferson (RFA), RT Bobby Massie, CB Jerraud Powers, CLyle Sendlein, RB Chris Johnson, OLB Dwight Freeney, OG Ted Larsen, WR Jaron Brown (RFA), TE Jermaine Gresham, ILB Sean Weatherspoon, SS D.J. Swearinger (RFA), OLB LaMarr Woodley, DE Red Bryant, FS Chris Clemons, QB Drew Stanton

Offensive Line: The Cardinals have hit big on LT Jared Veldheer and LG Mike Iupati in free agency, but whiffed on RG Jonathan Cooper in the draft, and need upgrades on C Lyle Sendlein and RG Ted Larsen, who are both free agents. 2015 first-round pick D.J. Humphries figures to replace free agent RT Bobby Massie. Right guard and center are the trouble spots.

Outside Linebacker: Although Arizona played stout 2015 defense, DC James Bettcher's unit ranked 21st in sacks (36) despite blitzing at a league-high rate. OLBs LaMarr Woodley and Dwight Freeney are aging with expiring contracts, while 2014 third-round pick Kareem Martin hasn't panned out. Alex Okafor and Markus Golden are promising pieces, but the Cardinals lack a big-time sack threat off the edge. Okafor and Golden combined for just six sacks in 2015.

Cornerback: Slot corner Tyrann Mathieu has suffered a torn ACL twice in the past three seasons, while RCBJerraud Powers' contract is up and Justin Bethel failed to make good on his increased late-season snaps. Beyond Patrick Peterson, there's not much the Cardinals can count on at cornerback for 2016. Safety may also become a need with Tony Jefferson and D.J. Swearinger up for restricted free agency. FS Rashad Johnson is an unrestricted free agent.

Quarterback: The Cardinals have tried to find a potential quarterback of the future behind 36-year-old Carson Palmer, blowing a 2014 fourth-round pick on Logan Thomas before trading for Matt Barkley last fall. Thomas was cut after the Barkley trade, however, and Barkley failed to unseat Drew Stanton for the primary backup job. Stanton is now a free agent. GM Steve Keim may not invest a high pick at quarterback, but he's likely to draft one this spring.

Cincinnati Bengals

Notable Free Agents: SS Reggie Nelson, WR Marvin Jones, CB Pacman Jones, CB Leon Hall, RT Andre Smith, FSGeorge Iloka, WR Mohamed Sanu, MLB Vincent Rey, DT Pat Sims, DE Wallace Gilberry, DT Brandon Thompson, OLB Emmanuel Lamur, OT Eric Winston

Defensive Back: Safety is the most pressing need on Cincinnati's roster because both incumbent starters -- FSGeorge Iloka and SS Reggie Nelson -- have expiring contracts. 2013 third-round pick Shawn Williams did acquit himself well in a reserve role and could be poised for more run. At very least, the Bengals' other safety position needs to be addressed. At cornerback, 2012 and 2014 first-round picks Dre Kirkpatrick and Darqueze Dennardhave been early-career disappointments, while stalwart CBs Pacman Jones and Leon Hall are free agents. LCB Kirkpatrick was arguably the weakest link in the Bengals' 2015 secondary. Coming off shoulder surgery, Dennard is an unknown with one start through two seasons.

Wide Receiver: Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu's contracts are up, leaving the likes of Mario Alford, James Wright, and Jake Kumerow behind A.J. Green. Retaining Jones would solve this need, but he'd be smart to test the market as one of free agency's top-three wideouts. Even if Tyler Eifert takes another step forward, the Bengals need to find another starting wideout.

Defensive Line: Three-technique DT Geno Atkins regained dominant form following a down 2014, but NT Domata Peko turned in a rough year in run defense and will turn 32 next season. Peko is also entering the last year of his deal. Oft-used reserve DTs Brandon Thompson and Pat Sims are both free agents. At defensive end, the Bengals' pass rush was lacking beyond LE Carlos Dunlap. Recent early-round draft picks Margus Hunt and Will Clarkehaven't panned out. No. 3 DE Wallace Gilberry's contract is up.

Linebacker: Rey Maualuga has matured into a functional middle linebacker, and WLB Vontaze Burfict is one of the highest-impact defenders in the league. SLB A.J. Hawk is barely an NFL-caliber player anymore, however, whileVincent Rey and Emmanuel Lamur are headed to free agency. 2015 third-round pick Paul Dawson is an in-house candidate for more snaps. A fifth Bengals need is center, where Russell Bodine made no noticeable sophomore strides after a rough rookie year and needs to face 2016 competition.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Notable Free Agents: LT Kelvin Beachum, OG Ramon Foster, CB Brandon Boykin, NT Steve McLendon, CBWilliam Gay, SS Will Allen, WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, ILB Sean Spence, CB Antwon Blake, FS Robert Golden, DECam Thomas, QB Bruce Gradkowski, RB Jordan Todman, QB Michael Vick

Cornerback: Pittsburgh fielded one of the league's weakest 2015 cornerback corps, rotating William Gay, Antwon Blake, and Ross Cockrell before getting Brandon Boykin involved down the stretch. Gay, Blake, and Boykin are all free agents. 2015 second-round pick Senquez Golson (shoulder) missed his entire rookie year and stands 5-foot-9, 176. In order to match up with A.J. Green and Josh Gordon in the AFC North, the Steelers need a legit No. 1 corner.

Offensive Line: The Steelers will get C Maurkice Pouncey back from his broken fibula, but LT Kelvin Beachum and LG Ramon Foster are both free agents, while RG David DeCastro is entering his contract year. After Beachum tore his ACL in October, replacement Ali Villanueva struggled mightily in his absence, allowing the seventh most sacks among offensive tackles despite playing the 56th most snaps at the position. Pittsburgh must address at least two offensive line spots (LT, LG).

Safety: FS Mike Mitchell has settled in as a passable starter, but SS Will Allen's contract is up and 2013 fourth-rounder Shamarko Thomas doesn't look remotely ready to replace him. Nor does Robert Golden, a free agent who beat out Thomas for the Steelers' third safety job in 2015. As DC Keith Butler mixes and matches Cover 2 and Cover 3, Pittsburgh will hunt for a versatile bookend to Mitchell who's capable of covering tight ends and running the alley.

Quarterback: Michael Vick and Bruce Gradkowski are headed to free agency, leaving only Landry Jones behind injury-riddled Ben Roethlisberger. Jones floundered in his 2015 spot opportunities, committing five turnovers as a two-game starter and completing just 58.2% of his throws. The Steelers figure to target free agent veterans to compete for the backup job.

Denver Broncos

Notable Free Agents: OLB Von Miller, DE Malik Jackson, ILB Danny Trevathan, RB C.J. Anderson (RFA), QBBrock Osweiler, ILB Brandon Marshall (RFA), OG Evan Mathis, RB Ronnie Hillman, DE Antonio Smith, SS David Bruton, FS Shiloh Keo, FS Omar Bolden, TE Vernon Davis, LT Ryan Harris, WR Jordan Norwood, OT Tyler Polumbus

Quarterback: Peyton Manning is expected to retire going on age 40. Even if Peyton wants to keep playing, it probably won't happen in Denver due to his $19 million salary. Brock Osweiler had some promising 2015 moments, but too often lacked decisiveness in the pocket, ultimately got benched, and currently is not signed for 2016. Denver's only other quarterback prospect is 24-year-old Trevor Siemian, a 2015 seventh-round pick out of Northwestern.

Offensive Line: The Broncos' fielded one of the league's weakest offensive lines in 2015, consistently losing one-on-one battles due to a shortage of athleticism. LT Ryan Clady's return should provide a boost, but Clady has missed 30 games over the past three seasons due to ACL and Lisfranc injuries. 2015 second-round OT Ty Sambrailo is coming off year-ending surgery to repair a torn shoulder labrum, and played poorly before going down. Fill-in LT Ryan Harris and LG Evan Mathis are free agents, while RG Louis Vasquez is entering his contract year. RT Michael Schofield isn't a starting-caliber player. Multiple additions are needed in this position group.

Running Back: The foundation of coach Gary Kubiak's offense is the run game, where committee partners C.J. Anderson (restricted) and Ronnie Hillman (unrestricted) both have expiring contracts. Montee Ball is long gone, andJuwan Thompson is a pedestrian talent or worse. Anderson figures to return on a second-round tender. Both as a runner and in pass protection, Hillman was a liability in the second half of 2015 and probably won't be back.

Inside Linebacker: Danny Trevathan and Brandon Marshall have formed one of the NFL's premier inside linebacker duos, but Trevathan is an unrestricted free agent and Marshall is restricted. Whereas Marshall will be easy to retain with a second-round tender, Trevathan may prefer to test the market in hopes of striking it rich. In-house candidates for bigger roles include promising 2014 seventh-round pick Corey Nelson and special teams standout Todd Davis.

Kansas City Chiefs

Notable Free Agents: SS Eric Berry, CB Sean Smith, ILBDerrick Johnson, DE Jaye Howard, OLB Tamba Hali, T/GJeff Allen, SS Tyvon Branch, DE Mike DeVito, FS Husain Abdullah, QB Chase Daniel, OT Donald Stephenson, OLB Frank Zombo, WR Jason Avant

Offensive Line: 2013 No. 1 overall pick Eric Fisher took a small step forward in his transition to left tackle, but the rest of the Chiefs' line is littered with concerns. T/G Jeff Allen and OT Donald Stephenson are free agents. LG Ben Grubbs' season was ended by a severe neck injury in Week 7, while right guard figures to be open for competition.Alex Smith has absorbed 90 sacks over the past two seasons. Only Blake Bortles (52) and Aaron Rodgers (46) were sacked more than Smith (45) in 2015.

Cornerback: Kansas City's most consistent corner in 2015, RCB Sean Smith is headed for free agency and could net a surprisingly big pay day at age 28. Slot CB Phillip Gaines tore his ACL last September, while 2015 third-round pick Steven Nelson couldn't lock down slot corner as a rookie, forcing FS Ron Parker to play there more than expected. LCB Marcus Peters looks like a long-term building block, but the Chiefs' cornerback situation is entirely unsettled after him.

Wide Receiver: Jeremy Maclin gave the 2015 offense an enormous lift, but the Chiefs' wideout group is otherwise pedestrian. Incumbent No. 2 Albert Wilson is better suited for a No. 3 or 4 role. An athletic freak, rising second-year WR Chris Conley is coming off a quiet 17-catch rookie season. Conley may eventually be Kansas City's solution across from Maclin, but until he establishes himself as such GM John Dorsey should at very least pursue serious competition.

Safety: The Chiefs can solidify safety by locking up or tagging SS Eric Berry, but until they do this position will need to be addressed. Berry, Husain Abdullah, and Tyvon Branch combined to account for 63% of Kansas City's 2015 safety snaps. All three are currently slated for unrestricted free agency. Branch seems likeliest to leave in pursuit of a full-time job. Another Chiefs need is defensive line, where versatile DE/DT Jaye Howard and rotational run stopper DE Mike DeVito's contracts are up, and NT Dontari Poe is entering his contract year.

Dallas Cowboys

Notable Free Agents: DE Greg Hardy, DE Jeremy Mincey, MLB Rolando McClain, CB Morris Claiborne, OLB Kyle Wilber, OG Ronald Leary (RFA), QB Matt Cassel, RB Lance Dunbar, RB Robert Turbin, DT Jack Crawford, TEJames Hanna, NT Nick Hayden, FB Tyler Clutts, OG Mackenzy Bernadeau

Cornerback: The Cowboys will finally move on from the failed Morris Claiborne era, while LCB Brandon Carr is severely overpaid at his $9.1 million base salary. Dallas played musical chairs at slot corner throughout 2015 and prefers to keep first-rounder Byron Jones at safety. The Cowboys will hope Orlando Scandrick regains form after tearing his ACL and MCL late last August. They need at least one starting-caliber boundary corner, and quite possibly two.

Running Back: Dallas' running back cupboard is bare behind Darren McFadden, who turns 29 before next season.Joseph Randle predictably flopped, and trade acquisition Christine Michael never got a legitimate chance before Dallas cut him in November. After they stunningly bypassed running backs in the 2015 draft, expect the Cowboys to take one early this April.

Defensive Line: RE Greg Hardy won't be re-signed, while rotational DLs Jeremy Mincey and Jack Crawford can follow him into free agency. In DT Tyrone Crawford and DEs Demarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory, the Cowboys do have three building blocks up front. Crawford is coming off a disappointing season, however, and Gregory may not be ready for a full-time role. Dallas needs an upgrade on NT Nick Hayden and more talent to round out the depth chart.

Linebacker: With MLB Rolando McClain and SLB Kyle Wilber's contracts expiring, the Cowboys may lose their starting middle linebacker and a useful role player. Anthony Hitchens would start in the middle if the season began today, with Sean Lee on the weak side. 2015 fourth-rounder Damien Wilson is a candidate for more snaps, but he barely played as a rookie. This is a position Dallas should be able to patch up cheaply in free agency. It can also be argued that backup quarterback, tight end, and wide receiver are needy positions for the Cowboys.

Baltimore Ravens

Notable Free Agents: T/G Kelechi Osemele, OLB Courtney Upshaw, WR Kamar Aiken (RFA), K Justin Tucker, OLB Albert McClellan, CB Shareece Wright, QB Matt Schaub, WR Chris Givens

Outside Linebacker: Baltimore's pass defense collapse can be mainly traced to a shortage of pass rush. Terrell Suggs tore his Achilles' last fall and will turn 34 next October. Bookend Elvis Dumervil can still bring heat off the edge, but he is better suited for a rotational role at age 32. Early-down edge setter Courtney Upshaw's contract is up. 2015 fourth-round pick Za'Darius Smith did come on strong with 3.5 sacks in the final three weeks, but at the moment aging Suggs and Dumervil, and potentially-promising Smith are all the Ravens have.

Cornerback: Starters RCB Jimmy Smith and LCB Lardarius Webb are both coming off disappointing seasons, while slot CB Kyle Arrington got benched six weeks into the year. The Ravens were forced to turn to journeymanShareece Wright as a starter down the stretch, and Wright is now headed for free agency. Current No. 4 corner Will Davis has suffered two ACL tears in the last two seasons. The Ravens need a legitimate starting-caliber cornerback capable of pushing Webb, who is owed an $8 million salary in 2016 and $8.5 million in 2017.

Offensive Line: The Ravens' roster is in a lot better shape than its 2015 record (5-11) suggests. Baltimore's offensive line needs some work, however, with stud LG/LT Kelechi Osemele's contract expiring and LT Eugene Monroe seemingly incapable of sustaining health. Having battled knee, ankle, and shoulder injuries, Monroe has missed 15 games over the past two seasons. RG Marshal Yanda is going on 32. RT Rick Wagner is entering a contract year.

Wide Receiver: With Steve Smith Sr. (Achilles), Breshad Perriman (PCL), Michael Campanaro (back), and Darren Waller (hamstring) all coming off year-ending injuries, Kamar Aiken is the only receiver under Baltimore's 2016 control who turned in a full, productive season. And Aiken is a restricted free agent. Anything the Ravens get from Smith at age 37 should be considered a bonus. Perriman is essentially an unknown after a lost rookie year.

New Orleans Saints

Notable Free Agents: TE Ben Watson, RB Khiry Robinson (RFA), OG Tim Lelito (RFA), DT Kevin Williams, FSRafael Bush, RB Tim Hightower, CB Kyle Wilson, TE Josh Hill (RFA), K Kai Forbath, TE Michael Hoomanawanui, RB Travaris Cadet, QB Luke McCown, QB Matt Flynn

Defensive End: The 2015 Saints so lacked pass-rush talent that they started undrafted rookie Bobby Richardson at right end, then finished 27th in sacks (31). New Orleans' secondary isn't quite as bad as it's billed to be -- particularly if CB Keenan Lewis and promising slot corner Damian Swann return healthy -- but this is a team in severe need of disruptive bodies front.

Linebacker: Whereas 2015 first-round pick Stephone Anthony should have a promising future in the middle, second-year SLB Hau'oli Kikaha was a liability as a rookie starter. The Saints began cleaning house in their otherwise overpriced, underperforming linebacker corps, cutting David Hawthorne and Ramon Humber shortly after the season. WLB Dannell Ellerbe would've been next to go before he accepted a pay cut. Poor linebacker play was a main reason Football Outsiders graded last year's Saints 27th against the run.

Tight End: Ben Watson enjoyed a late-career breakout season (74-825-6) in 2015, but he's 35 years old and ticketed for free agency. Michael Hoomanawanui's contract is also up, while No. 2 tight end Josh Hill is a restricted free agent. The Saints may be able to re-sign Watson on the cheap, but they need to begin thinking about the future at this position.

Wide Receiver: Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead established themselves as a respectable 1-2 punch at wideout, but declining Marques Colston figures to be cut and Brandon Coleman failed to capitalize on increased snaps. As Cooks (5'10/189) and Snead (5'11/195) are both size deficient, the Saints may prioritize a bigger receiver capable of winning contested catches. Guard is another need after the team released longtime RG Jahri Evans. Incumbent LGTim Lelito is a restricted free agent, and 2015 first-rounder Andrus Peat struggled badly inside.

Indianapolis Colts

Notable Free Agents: ILB Jerrell Freeman, TE Dwayne Allen, TE Coby Fleener, CB Greg Toler, K Adam Vinatieri, SS Dwight Lowery, DE Billy Winn, QB Matt Hasselbeck, RB Dan Herron, S Colt Anderson, OG Lance Louis, RBAhmad Bradshaw

Offensive Line: Indianapolis' roster deficiencies were exposed with Andrew Luck out of the lineup for nine games. Never in doubt was the Colts' offensive line weakness, which GM Ryan Grigson has unsuccessfully attempted to paper over with failed draft picks and over-the-hill free agent flops. Only left tackle (Anthony Castonzo), left guard (Jack Mewhort), and perhaps center (Jonotthan Harrison) should be considered solidified. Contract-year RG Hugh Thornton has been a consistent liability, while RT Joe Reitz is suited for a sixth-man role.

Linebacker: The Colts' linebacker corps may need a facelift, especially if stud ILB Jerrell Freeman bolts in free agency. 2013 first-round pick Bjoern Werner is a bust. 33-year-old Trent Cole ($6.25 million) is a potential cap casualty, and Robert Mathis turns 35 soon. 32-year-old ILB D'Qwell Jackson has been a liability in each of his two years with the Colts. Mathis, Cole, ILB Sio Moore, and OLB Erik Walden are all entering contract seasons. 2014 fifth-round pick Jonathan Newsome took a step back after a promising rookie year. This team badly needs pass rush.

Cornerback: While star RCB Vontae Davis is signed through 2017, LCB Greg Toler is a free agent and the Colts could use an upgrade on Darius Butler, one of the weakest slot corners in the league. An in-house candidate for an increased role is 2015 third-rounder D'Joun Smith, though Smith's failure to earn playing time ahead of Butler andJalil Brown down the stretch is a concern. Coach Chuck Pagano's scheme plays press-man coverage and frequently leaves its cornerbacks on one-on-one islands. Corners who excel in this technique are difficult to find.

Tight End: Running back, defensive line, and backup quarterback also could've made the Colts' biggest needs. I went with tight end because Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen are both unrestricted free agents and No. 3 tight endJack Doyle is restricted. Tight ends have long been a big part of Colts OC Rob Chudzinski's pass game; Chud is a tight ends coach by trade. Chudzinski coached Bubba Franks, Jeremy Shockey, and Kellen Winslow at the University of Miami. He's overseen Shockey, Winslow, Antonio Gates, Jordan Cameron, and Greg Olsen in the NFL.

New York Jets

Notable Free Agents: DE Muhammad Wilkerson, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, NT Damon Harrison, RB Chris Ivory, RBBilal Powell, DE Leger Douzable, ILB Erin Henderson, ILB Demario Davis, OLB Calvin Pace, OG Willie Colon, CBDarrin Walls, ILB Jamari Lattimore, TE Kellen Davis, SS Antonio Allen, WR Chris Owusu, RB Stevan Ridley, KRandy Bullock

Linebacker: The Jets need help at both inside and outside linebacker with ILB Demario Davis and OLB Calvin Pace not likely to be re-signed in free agency. Outside rush 'backer was a problem area late in Rex Ryan's tenure and continued into year one of Todd Bowles as Gang Green got just nine sacks from its entire OLB crew. The Jets desperately need an injection of speed into their linebacker corps. Stalwart ILB David Harris turned 32 last month.

Running Back: Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell, and Stevan Ridley accounted for nearly 88% of the Jets' 2015 running back snaps, and all three are headed to free agency. Powell may return, but Ivory is not expected back. Ridley played poorly in his limited opportunities and also figures to walk. OC Chan Gailey's offense best meshes with running backs who are capable of excelling in both the run and pass games, and who can exploit gaps created by Gailey's four-wide spread.

Offensive Line: The Jets' line largely protected Ryan Fitzpatrick well in 2015, but LT D'Brickashaw Fergusonshowed signs of decline at age 32 and RT Breno Giacomini was a persistent liability. 2013 third-round pick Brian Winters has failed to nail down right guard. New York could use at least one upgrade at guard or tackle and a left tackle prospect to groom.

Defensive Line: Cornerback, perhaps tight end, and quarterback if the Jets don't re-sign Ryan Fitzpatrick -- they will -- could also be argued as Jets needs. I went with defensive line because difference makers NT Damon Harrisonand LE Muhammad Wilkerson's contracts are up. Rotational DEs Stephen Bowen and Leger Douzable are also free agents, and RE Sheldon Richardson is entering his contract year. The Jets must address this position and add depth.

Minnesota Vikings

Notable Free Agents: CB Terence Newman, OG Mike Harris, OLB Chad Greenway, SS Andrew Sendejo, TE Rhett Ellison, SS Robert Blanton, DT Kenrick Ellis, RB Matt Asiata, CB Marcus Sherels, MLB Audie Cole, CB Josh Robinson

Wide Receiver: Whereas Stefon Diggs looks like a big hit for GM Rick Spielman, Mike Wallace was a horrible misfit with Teddy Bridgewater and will likely be released due to his $11.45 million salary. Jarius Wright is a slot receiver only, and Cordarrelle Patterson is a kickoff returner. The Vikings need a big, ball-commanding wideout who wins physically and turns short catches into long gains. Basically, what Charles Johnson looked like late in the 2014 season.

Offensive Line: The Vikings have some promising pieces on the line and should benefit tremendously from the return of C John Sullivan, who missed 2015 with a back injury. Sullivan is on the wrong side of 30 and endured a setback, however, while LT Matt Kalil and rookie RT T.J. Clemmings both struggled last season. Starting RG Mike Harris' contract is up. RT Phil Loadholt spent last year on I.R. with a torn Achilles' and may not return at his $5.4 million salary. After the season, coach Mike Zimmer declared the entire offensive line open to competition.

Safety: Star FS Harrison Smith is entering his contract year, while strong safety was a revolving door in Minnesota all season. Andrew Sendejo, Robert Blanton, and Antone Exum all failed to nail down the position when given opportunities. Undrafted rookie Anthony Harris did flash promise late in the season, but he should face a stiff challenge for the first-string role.

Linebacker: MLB Eric Kendricks and SLB Anthony Barr are the Vikings' building blocks at linebacker. The weak side is a question mark with Chad Greenway headed to free agency at age 33. Greenway may be re-signed for leadership purposes, but his on-field play has slipped dramatically. Zimmer prioritizes linebackers who play with athleticism and toughness.

Buffalo Bills

Notable Free Agents: LT Cordy Glenn, OG Richie Incognito, DT Corbin Bryant (RFA), OLB Nigel Bradham, WRPercy Harvin, FS Bacarri Rambo (RFA), DT Alex Carrington, CB Ron Brooks, DT Stefan Charles (RFA), OT Jordan Mills, WR Leonard Hankerson

Offensive Line: Football Outsiders graded Buffalo's 2015 offensive line 23rd in run blocking and 27th in pass protection. Now, the Bills must find ways to retain free agents LT Cordy Glenn and LG Richie Incognito, who were their best two linemen last season. Glenn, in particular, will be a hot commodity if allowed to hit the market. RGJohn Miller was a disaster as a rookie, and RT Seantrel Henderson's playing future is in doubt due to Crohn's disease.

Linebacker: Buffalo's disappointing 2015 defense can be in large part attributed to poor linebacker play, both in pass coverage and run support. Second-year ILB Preston Brown was one of the team's biggest liabilities, and impending free agent WLB Nigel Bradham turned in a poor season as well. The Bills need at least one new starting linebacker, and very arguably two.

Wide Receiver: Sammy Watkins became what the Bills hoped for during a dynamic 2015 season (60-1,047-9), but Buffalo's wideout depth chart is weak beyond him. Possession target Robert Woods is best suited for a No. 3 role, while fellow returnees Chris Hogan, Greg Salas, and Marquise Goodwin are bottom-of-the-roster types. To complement Watkins and Tyrod Taylor's deep game, the Bills need a big, physical receiver with run-after-catch skills.

Cornerback: RCB Stephon Gilmore and LCB Ronald Darby proved excellent fits for Rex Ryan's defense, but smallish slot CB Nickell Robey was easy pickings for offenses while No. 4 CB Leodis McKelvin is a release candidate in the final year of his deal. This unit needs improved depth as Gilmore enters his contract year, and an upgrade at slot corner would really help.

Houston Texans

Notable Free Agents: OG Brandon Brooks, OLB John Simon (RFA), DE Jared Crick, C Ben Jones, FS Quintin Demps, WR Nate Washington, SS Eddie Pleasant (RFA), K Nick Novak, P Shane Lechler, OT Chris Clark, RB Chris Polk, RB Jonathan Grimes (RFA)

Quarterback: Brian Hoyer, then Ryan Mallett, then back to Hoyer, then T.J. Yates, then Brandon Weeden, and back to Hoyer again. Texans coach Bill O'Brien has done well to coax semi-competent quarterback play out of a motley cast of signal callers, but it's time Houston took this position more seriously. Hoyer is a high-end NFL backup and nothing more.

Safety: Although it isn't for a lack of trying, the Texans have had little or no success when taking stabs at safeties. 2013 second-round pick D.J. Swearinger flamed out quickly and is now a member of the Arizona Cardinals. Ed Reed and Rahim Moore have been recent free agent whiffs. Signed to a three-year, $12 million deal last spring, Moore was benched seven weeks into the season. The Texans closed out the year starting 2014 seventh-round pick Dre Hal and journeyman special teamer Quintin Demps, who is now an unrestricted free agent.

Running Back: Arian Foster's (Achilles') release is believed to be imminent, while Chris Polk's contract is up. Plodder Alfred Blue (career 3.48 YPC) isn't a short- or long-term solution. The Texans need a running back capable of keeping the chains moving on offense, especially while their quarterback position gets settled.

Defensive Line: LE J.J. Watt earned his third DPOY award in four seasons, but got little help from his teammates up front. Free agent RE Jared Crick was a liability all year. NT Vince Wilfork can still fill versus the run, but adds nothing in the way of pass rush and is going on age 35. The Texans need to upgrade on Crick and keep adding young talent to the depth chart.

Philadelphia Eagles

Notable Free Agents: QB Sam Bradford, DE Cedric Thornton, SS Walter Thurmond III, CB Nolan Carroll, OG Matt Tobin (RFA), CB E.J. Biggers

Quarterback: Eagles QBs have combined to rank 23rd and 22nd in passer rating the past two seasons, while release candidate Mark Sanchez ($4.5 million) is the team's only quarterback under contract for 2016. Andy Reiddisciple Doug Pederson is bringing a West Coast offense back to Philadelphia. Free agent Sam Bradford may end up a failed one-year rental.

Defensive Back: $63 million investment LCB Byron Maxwell flopped as a No. 1 corner. RCB Nolan Carroll's contract is up after he fractured his ankle on Thanksgiving. Rookie Eric Rowe looked overmatched as a fill-in starter down the stretch. SS Walter Thurmond is a free agent, and he may look to cash in at the high end of a weak safety market. At the moment, FS/slot CB Malcolm Jenkins is the only Eagles defensive back who can be considered a quality starter.

Offensive Line: The Eagles are set at tackle and center, but LG Allen Barbre and RG Matt Tobin are coming off ugly years. Tobin especially needs to be replaced. An in-house competitor will be Andrew Gardner, who opened 2015 starting at right guard but suffered a year-ending foot injury three games in. The Eagles also need to think about tackles for the future. When RT Lane Johnson eventually replaces 34-year-old LT Jason Peters, a hole will form on the right side.

Defensive Line: Moving to a 4-3 under Jim Schwartz, the Eagles' defensive personnel looks surprisingly ready for the switch with Vinny Curry and Brandon Graham on the ends, Fletcher Cox and Bennie Logan at tackle, and some combination of Jordan Hicks, Connor Barwin, Mychal Kendricks, Kiko Alonso, and DeMeco Ryans at linebacker. The Eagles still need depth on the line, however, with a shortage of outside edge rushers and run pluggers in the middle.

Washington Redskins

Notable Free Agents: QB Kirk Cousins, NT Terrance Knighton, RB Alfred Morris, ILB Mason Foster, CB Will Blackmon, OLB Junior Galette, NT Kedric Golston, ILB Will Compton (RFA), TE Logan Paulsen, FB Darrel Young, RB Pierre Thomas, QB Colt McCoy, ILB Keenan Robinson, G/C Josh LeRibeus

Offensive Line: LT Trent Williams, RG Brandon Scherff, and RT Morgan Moses are all entrenched as 2016 starters, but LG Spencer Long is coming off an uneven season and the Redskins' 2015 center play was arguably the worst in the league. Even under OL mastermind Bill Callahan, Washington generated no push in the running game, finishing 30th in the league in yards per carry (3.65). The Redskins need to give Callahan another talented interior piece.

Inside Linebacker: Keenan Robinson and Mason Foster are free agents, while Perry Riley is a release candidate at his $4 million salary. Restricted free agent Will Compton was a disaster when forced into heavy playing time, finishing 84th among 94 qualified inside linebackers in PFF's grades as a ten-game starter at inside linebacker on a Washington team that ranked bottom ten in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA. Combined, those four players accounted for 99.9% of the Redskins' 2015 inside linebacker snaps. GM Scot McCloughan may want to consider a complete overhaul of this position, though re-signing run stuffer Foster would be a solid first step.

Defensive Line: NT Terrance Knighton is a free agent, and 33-year-old RE Jason Hatcher openly discussed retirement at season's end. Top backup NT Kedric Golston's contract is also up. McCloughan hit on Knighton, super-sub DE Ricky Jean-Francois, and DE Stephen Paea (when healthy) in 2015 free agency. He'll have to make a few more moves here this offseason.

Running Back: Defensive back and quarterback -- in the extremely unlikely event Kirk Cousins hits the open market -- could also be classified as Redskins needs. I went with running back because free agent Alfred Morris is a surefire goner, and Matt Jones struggled mightily with both fumbles (5) and rushing efficiency (3.40 YPC) as a rookie. My sense is Jones can be a competent starter if the Redskins improve their interior run blocking, but I also don't think Jones should be locked into a competition-free starting job entering his second season.

Miami Dolphins

Notable Free Agents: DE Olivier Vernon, RB Lamar Miller, DE Derrick Shelby, WR Rishard Matthews, FS Michael Thomas (RFA), FS Louis Delmas, MLB Kelvin Sheppard, QB Matt Moore, OLB Spencer Paysinger

Cornerback: LCB Brent Grimes' play fell off a cliff in 2015, and he turns 33 this summer. RCB Jamar Taylor was one of the NFL's most frequent burn victims. Slot corner Brice McCain turned in a mediocre season. FS Michael Thomas is a restricted free agent. The Dolphins must find at least one starting corner and competition for special teamer-turned-starter Thomas.

Guard: The Dolphins' guard play was abysmal in 2015, particularly LG Dallas Thomas. Rookie RG Jamil Douglaswas benched in favor of Billy Turner one month into the season, and Turner didn't provide an upgrade. Thomas, 26, Turner, 24, and Douglas, 24, are young players worth keeping around, but none of them has yet proven cable of nailing down a starting job.

Linebacker: Run-defense liability MLB Kelvin Sheppard is expected to leave in free agency, and SLB Koa Misi's $5.3 million owed in salary and bonuses could get him cut. WLB Jelani Jenkins and potential Sheppard replacement Zach Vigil are the Dolphins' only linebackers assured of returning. Jenkins is coming off a disappointing season on the weak side.

Defensive Line: Running back and tight end are also potential weak spots on Miami's roster, but defensive line help is most pressing. Not only are RE Olivier Vernon and LE Derrick Shelby's contracts up, but top pass rusherCameron Wake is 34 years old and coming off a torn Achilles' tendon. NT Earl Mitchell is entering his contract year after a sub-par season. 2015 second-round pick Jordan Phillips got pushed around in run defense as a rookie. The Dolphins won't let Vernon walk, but they need one more useful body up front and arguably two.

New York Giants

Notable Free Agents: DE Jason Pierre-Paul, CB Prince Amukamara, DE Robert Ayers, WR Rueben Randle, KJosh Brown, DT Cullen Jenkins, CB Trumaine McBride, TE Larry Donnell (RFA), SS Brandon Meriweather, MLBJasper Brinkley, C/G Dallas Reynolds, DE George Selvie, CB Jayron Hosley, FS Craig Dahl, WR Hakeem Nicks, TE Daniel Fells

Every Position on Defense: The Giants' roster deterioration under slumping GM Jerry Reese cost Tom Coughlinhis job. New York was especially horrific on defense in 2015, finishing 28th in Football Outsiders' pass-defense DVOA and 21st against the run. RE Robert Ayers, LE Jason Pierre-Paul, and RCB Prince Amukamara were three of the defense's top players, and all are now free agents. Linebacker and safety were disasters on Steve Spagnuolo's unit.

Wide Receiver: Rueben Randle never got better after flashing early-career promise and is now headed into free agency. The Giants can't count on a 2016 impact from Victor Cruz, who tore his patellar tendon in 2014, then tore his calf last November. Cruz is a release candidate going on age 30 with $8 million owed to him in salary and bonuses. Dwayne Harris is best suited for a No. 4 receiver/special teams role. There's Odell Beckham, and not a whole lot else.

Running Back: The Giants used a frustrating four-way committee for most of 2015, preventing their stable of backs from ever finding a rhythm and ultimately doing more run-game harm than good. Then-OC Ben McAdoo found success once he settled on Rashad Jennings as New York's lead runner down the stretch, but Jennings turns 31 in March. 2014 fourth-round pick Andre Williams remained horribly ineffective. Jennings and Shane Vereen can be quality role players, but the Giants will lack a consistent run game until they find a true lead back.

Offensive Line: Reese made the decision to release LT Will Beatty, who missed last season with a torn pectoral followed by a rotator cuff tear in his shoulder. Drafted to open his career at right tackle, first-round pick Ereck Flowers struggled badly when forced onto Eli Manning's blind side. Last year's loss of Beatty weakened two positions, as fill-in Marshall Newhouse got pummeled at right tackle. Although effective when healthy, RG Geoff Schwartz missed 19 games over the past two seasons and followed Beatty out the door this week.

Atlanta Falcons

Notable Free Agents: RT Ryan Schraeder (RFA), OG Chris Chester, DT Adrian Clayborn, DE Kroy Biermann, MLBPaul Worrilow (RFA), DE/LB O'Brien Schofield, K Shayne Graham, SS Charles Godfrey, OLB Philip Wheeler

Defensive End: Last year's Falcons finished dead last in the NFL in sacks (19). The main culprit was a defensive end group that generated no pressure beyond the contributions of rookie RE Vic Beasley. LE Tyson Jackson has never been a pass rusher, while key rotational linemen Kroy Biermann, O'Brien Schofield, and Adrian Claybornare ticketed for free agency.

Offensive Line: With RG Chris Chester headed to free agency and C Mike Person coming off an abominable season, the Falcons' offensive line priorities should be on upgrading the interior. There isn't a starting-caliber center on the current roster. 33-year-old Chester struggled in pass protection and is now coming off shoulder surgery. At tackle, Jake Matthews took a needed step forward on Matt Ryan's blind side. RT Ryan Schraeder is a restricted free agent.

Tight End/Wide Receiver: Whether it be a starting tight end or a legit No. 2 wideout, the Falcons need pass-catching help. Overpaid Roddy White looked out of gas at age 34, while 31-year-old (in March) TE Jacob Tamme played too many snaps. 2015 fourth-round pick Justin Hardy may have a promising future at slot receiver, but is better viewed as a role player. Last season, it was Julio Jones and little else in one of the NFL's thinnest passing offenses.

Defensive Back: LCB Desmond Trufant is a true shutdown force and RCB Robert Alford has developed into a quality starter. Slot corner was a weakness all season, however, while aging SS William Moore was among the NFL's first offseason cuts. Moore failed in the "Kam Chancellor role" at box safety in Dan Quinn's Cover 3. Middle and weak-side linebacker also need reinforcements.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Notable Free Agents: RB Doug Martin, DT Jacquies Smith (RFA), DT Henry Melton, CB Sterling Moore, OLBDanny Lansanah (RFA), SS Bradley McDougald (RFA), FS Keith Tandy, DT Tony McDaniel, FS Chris Conte, RBBobby Rainey, CB Mike Jenkins

Defensive Back: Tampa Bay's cornerback play in Lovie Smith's final year as coach got so bad the Bucs actually used journeyman Sterling Moore to shadow No. 1 receivers down the stretch. A 2011 undrafted free agent, Moore has spent time with four different teams in five seasons. Every single Bucs 2015 cornerback received a negative pass-coverage grade from Pro Football Focus. The safety play wasn't any better. Tampa Bay's secondary needs a facelift.

Defensive End: The Bucs entered 2015 with the weakest defensive end group in the league. They emerged with the No. 26 pass defense, per Football Outsiders' DVOA. A lot of that is attributable the NFL's worst secondary, but it's also explainable by a lack of consistent up-front pressure. Jacquies Smith led Bucs ends in sacks (7) but was easily washed out against the run, and is now a restricted free agent. Under new DC Mike Smith, sub-rusherHoward Jones (5 sacks) and run-stopper LE William Gholston (3) are the only other potential keepers.

Offensive Line: LT Donovan Smith had a brutal rookie season on Jameis Winston's blind side and would probably be better suited for right tackle or guard. Washed-up RT Gosder Cherilus was similarly ineffective across from him. LG Logan Mankins, who turns 34 in March, is owed $7 million in the last year of his deal. C Evan Dietrich-Smith got benched in favor of Joe Hawley, who was signed off the street in Week 2. Impressive small-school rookie Ali Marpet is the Bucs' only offensive lineman who should be assured of returning at his starting post.

Wide Receiver: I also considered running back as a need, but perhaps not with Doug Martin's re-signing seemingly a foregone conclusion. Next up is wide receiver, where Vincent Jackson has become increasingly inefficient at age 33, and whose season was ended by a knee injury. Third receiver Louis Murphy tore his ACL in November. The Bucs need a complement to Mike Evans who could work into three-wide sets and replace Jackson by 2017. One intriguing in-house prospect is Kenny Bell, a 2015 fifth-round pick who graduated from Nebraska as the school's all-time leading receiver but missed his entire rookie year with a hamstring injury.

San Diego Chargers

Notable Free Agents: FS Eric Weddle, TE Antonio Gates, CB Patrick Robinson, TE Ladarius Green, RT Joe Barksdale, SS Jahleel Addae (RFA), DE Ricardo Mathews, DE Kendall Reyes, TE/FB David Johnson, OT Chris Hairston

Defensive Line: The Chargers need a talent influx in the trenches after ranking dead last in run-defense DVOA. Among San Diego's incumbent defensive linemen, only RE Corey Liuget should be counted on as a 2016 starter. 2012 second-round bust Kendall Reyes figures to walk in free agency, while oft-used reserve Ricardo Mathews' contract is also up. NTs Sean Lissemore and Ryan Carrethers were rag dolled in 2015 and are best suited for backup roles.

Defensive Back: San Diego's most pressing secondary need is at safety, where FS Eric Weddle won't return after a fallout with the organization, and SS Jahleel Addae heads into restricted free agency. The Chargers gave up on 2015 free agent signing Jimmy Wilson, cutting him in mid-December. San Diego's current safety depth chart might be the worst in the league. Cornerback also needs reinforcements after 30-year-old LCB Brandon Flowers looked washed up before a Week 13 knee injury sent him to injured reserve. Slot CB/LCB Patrick Robinson was an excellent 2015 find by GM Tom Telesco, but is now an unrestricted free agent.

Offensive Line: The Chargers' front five will get significant boosts simply by getting healthy after RG D.J. Fluker, LGOrlando Franklin, and LT King Dunlap combined to miss 19 games due to injury. 2014 third-round C Chris Watthas failed to show durability or starting-caliber skill through two seasons, and probably needs to be replaced. After finishing 40th among 40 qualifying centers in Pro Football Focus' grades, fill-in C Trevor Robinson isn't the solution. San Diego's most reliable offensive lineman, RT Joe Barksdale's contract is up.

Tight End: The Chargers are expected to re-sign Antonio Gates, but he turns 36 this spring and likely has no more than a year or two left. Intriguing-if-enigmatic backup Ladarius Green looks poised to test free agency, where Green's market could be strong based on his age (26 in May) and playmaking upside. Third tight end John Phillipsis also a free agent.

Chicago Bears

Notable Free Agents: WR Alshon Jeffery, RB Matt Forte, CB Tracy Porter, TE Zach Miller, OG Patrick Omameh(RFA), OLB Sam Acho, DE Mitch Unrein, C Will Montgomery, DE Jarvis Jenkins, OG Vlad Ducasse, ILBShea McClellin, WR Marc Mariani, CB Sherrick McManis, SS Ryan Mundy, CB Alan Ball, TE Rob Housler, FS Chris Prosinski

Defensive Line: While first-year GM Ryan Pace did well to hit on second-round NT Eddie Goldman in last May's draft, the Bears fielded one of the league's worst 3-4 defensive end groupings throughout the year. Jarvis Jenkins andMitch Unrein led the unit in snaps played and are both free agents. Middling rotational ends Will Sutton, Bruce Gaston, and Ego Ferguson return. The Bears arguably need two new starters on the defensive line.

Inside Linebacker: Finishing 31st in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA, the 2015 Bears struggled in most sections of the front seven. They were especially plodding at inside linebacker, where the Shea McClellin era can now mercifully end. The rest of Chicago's inside 'backers -- Christian Jones, Jonathan Anderson, LaRoy Reynolds, and John Timu -- are players who should be competing for the bottom part of a 53, not penciled in as starters.

Cornerback: RCB Kyle Fuller took a needed step forward after a rough end to his rookie year, but the Bears have very little behind him. LCB Tracy Porter's contract is up, while Chicago's cast of slot corners failed miserably last season. Re-signing Porter could paper over the position opposite Fuller for another year, but the Bears clearly need more talent here.

Offensive Line: Outside linebacker, running back, and quarterback also deserve a mention in the Bears' needs. Offensive line looks more pressing with LT Jermon Bushrod a virtual lock for release after losing his starting job, and fill-in LT Charles Leno and rookie C Hroniss Grasu coming off sub-par seasons. Leno, 24, and Grasu, 24, are young prospects who should improve, but the Bears would be smart to pursue competition for both players.

Detroit Lions

Notable Free Agents: DT Haloti Ngata, OLB Tahir Whitehead, DE Jason Jones, DT Tyrunn Walker, DE Darryl Tapp, SS Isa Abdul-Quddus, G/C Manuel Ramirez, SS James Ihedigbo, OLB Travis Lewis, WR Lance Moore, DTJermelle Cudjo, CB Josh Wilson

Offensive Line: The Lions will hope for internal improvement from young guards Laken Tomlinson and Larry Warford, but C Travis Swanson failed as a first-year starter and Detroit's right tackle position was a revolving door of ineffectiveness throughout 2015. LT Riley Reiff also got exposed in pass protection. This may finally be the year Reiff transitions to right tackle or guard. The Lions need two new starters on the line; one center and one tackle.

Wide Receiver: With Calvin Johnson seemingly poised for retirement, wideout is suddenly among the Lions' biggest offseason needs. Behind Golden Tate, Detroit's current depth chart is rounded out by T.J. Jones, Corey Fuller, Ryan Spadola, and Corey Washington.

Defensive Line: Once the team's greatest strength, defensive line could devolve into a weakness if the Lions aren't careful. DT Haloti Ngata, LE Jason Jones, DT Tyrunn Walker, and DE Darryl Tapp are all free agents, leaving behind RE Ziggy Ansah and rotational DE Devin Taylor as Detroit's only surefire assets. The Lions need more edge rush and bodies to clog the middle.

Defensive Back: While LCB Darius Slay is developing into a legitimate shutdown corner, 35-year-old RCB Rashean Mathis fell off a cliff before he landed on I.R. with a concussion last November, and fill-in Nevin Lawson wasn't a whole lot better. Sixth-round pick Quandre Diggs did have an excellent rookie season at slot cornerback. Strong safety is arguably the biggest concern with Isa Abdul-Quddus and James Ihedigbo both slated for unrestricted free agency.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Notable Free Agents: DE Ryan Davis (RFA), C Stefen Wisniewski, TE Marcedes Lewis, P Bryan Anger, DE Andre Branch, WR Bryan Walters, DT Abry Jones (RFA), TE Clay Harbor, QB Chad Henne, OT Sam Young

Defensive Back: The Jags have invested recent draft capital into SS Johnathan Cyprien, FS Josh Evans, and 2015 third-rounder James Sample, but so far none have panned out. At cornerback, only LCB/slot CB Aaron Colvin and RCB Davon House had somewhat effective seasons. Jacksonville ranked 31st in pass-defense DVOA, much of which can be blamed on a pass rush the team hopes 2015 first-round pick Dante Fowler and the return of three-technique DT Sen'Derrick Marks will kick start. Still, more talent is needed on the Jaguars' back end.

Offensive Line: LT Luke Joeckel and RT Jermey Parnell are both coming off rough years in pass protection, while ineffective LG Zane Beadles is a release candidate due to his $5.5 million owed in salary and bonuses. Arguably Jacksonville's steadiest 2015 lineman, C Stefen Wisniewski is now a free agent. The return of stud RG Brandon Linder will help the interior, but competition is needed for disappointing Joeckel, and the Jags may need a new starting center. An in-house candidate is 2015 third-rounder A.J. Cann, who starred at center in college but struggled with technique as a rookie NFL guard.

Tight End: Marcedes Lewis and Clay Harbor's contracts are expiring, leaving practice squad types Nic Jacobs andBen Koyack behind Julius Thomas. A rising sixth-year pro, Thomas has never made it through a 16-game season. Per PFF's Mike Clay, Jacksonville utilized "12 personnel" (two tight ends) on 30% of its 2015 pass plays, the NFL's fourth highest clip.

Inside Linebacker: Defensive line is another arguable need, though the return of Fowler and Marks could satisfy it. Whereas OLBs Telvin Smith and Dan Skuta are coming off solid seasons, MLB Paul Posluszny's decline continued in 2015. Posluszny has become a liability in both run defense and coverage. The Jaguars seemingly value Posluszny's leadership skills enough to keep him around, but they need to start thinking about an eventual replacement.

Oakland Raiders

Notable Free Agents: LT Donald Penn, OLB/DE Aldon Smith, WR Andre Holmes, T/G J'Marcus Webb, OLBBenson Mayowa (RFA), WR Rod Streater, G/C Tony Bergstrom, P Marquette King, CB Neiko Thorpe (RFA), FSLarry Asante, QB Matt McGloin (RFA), SS Taylor Mays, T/G Khalif Barnes

Defensive Back: With the exception of in-season waiver wire gem LCB David Amerson, the Raiders' cornerback play was among the league's worst. Oakland also must find an immediate replacement for retired FS Charles Woodson, who played at a high level in his final NFL season. Nate Allen was an injury-ravaged disaster at free safety. 2013 first-round CB D.J. Hayden is a certified bust. At very least, the Raiders need a slot corner and two new starting safeties. One option would be to slide CB T.J. Carrie to safety, where he played some snaps in 2015.

Inside Linebacker: Last offseason, the Raiders committed an $18 million deal to ILB Curtis Lofton and a $7 million pact to ILB Malcolm Smith. Neither panned out, with Lofton most notably getting creamed by tight ends in pass coverage while Smith was washed out against the run. Oakland simply needs better players here. An in-house candidate for more snaps is 2015 fifth-round pick Ben Heeney, whose defensive role expanded as his rookie year progressed.

Defensive Line: Gone are LE Justin Tuck (retirement) and OLB Aldon Smith (suspension, free agency). DE/OLBMario Edwards' future is reportedly in some question due to a genetic issue in his neck. OLB Khalil Mack and NTDan Williams are established studs, but the Raiders need more talent up front. An outside rusher to complement Mack would be ideal.

Offensive Line: With LT Donald Penn, RG J'Marcus Webb, T/G Khalif Barnes, and C/G Tony Bergstrom's contracts all expiring, the Raiders have holes to fill on the line. 2014 third-round pick LG Gabe Jackson has been one of GMReggie McKenzie's biggest hits, while Rodney Hudson is one of the league's top centers. Austin Howard is a solid right tackle. Left tackle and right guard are Oakland's chief concerns as free agency approaches. 2015 fourth-rounder Jon Feliciano is an in-house option at right guard, but he struggled in three rookie-year starts.

Tennessee Titans

Notable Free Agents: ILB Zach Brown, TE Craig Stevens, CB Coty Sensabaugh, NT Sammie Lee Hill, NT Al Woods, RT Byron Bell, G/T Jamon Meredith

Offensive Line: Last year's Titans coughed up a league-high 54 sacks, simultaneously ranking dead last inFootball Outsiders' pass protection metric. Tennessee's lone plus starter is LT Taylor Lewan, who may kick to right tackle if the Titans draft a left tackle with the first overall pick. Centers Brian Schwenke and Andy Gallik were horrific, and through three seasons RG Chance Warmack hasn't even been a league-average starter. RT Byron Bell is a free agent. 2015 second-round pick Jeremiah Poutasi wasn't remotely ready to play as a rookie.

Running Back: In parentheses are the forty times of the Titans' current top-three backs: Antonio Andrews (4.82),Dexter McCluster (4.58), David Cobb (4.81). Straight-line speed does not a running back make, but Tennessee's 2015 backfield very clearly lacked explosiveness with Andrews (3.64 YPC) as the lead runner. 2014 second-round pick Bishop Sankey has been a total flop. Cobb is probably the best pure runner on the roster, but he barely played as a rookie.

Defensive Back: The Titans' free safety need is obvious after longtime FS Michael Griffin's release. Cornerback could also afford talent injections to upgrade on Blidi Wreh-Wilson and B.W. Webb behind RCB Perrish Cox and injury-plagued LCB Jason McCourty. The Titans may have stumbled upon their slot corner of the future in 2015 UDFA Cody Riggs, who excelled in his limited rookie-year chances. LCB/slot CB Coty Sensabaugh figures to walk in free agency.

Defensive Line: Sammie Lee Hill and Al Woods held down nose tackle for last year's Titans. Both have expiring contracts, and there isn't a realistic replacement on the current roster. Tennessee finished 24th in run-defense DVOA. **** LeBeau's unit did get strong years from RE Jurrell Casey, LE DaQuan Jones, and sub-rusher Karl Klug, all of whom will return.

Los Angeles Rams

Notable Free Agents: CB Janoris Jenkins, DT Nick Fairley, CB Trumaine Johnson, DE William Hayes, LB/S Mark Barron, FS Rodney McLeod, QB Case Keenum (RFA), RB Benny Cunningham (RFA), K Greg Zuerlein, C Tim Barnes, WR Brian Quick, DE Eugene Sims, FB Cory Harkey, WR Wes Welker

Quarterback: The Rams haven't had stable quarterback play since the Marc Bulger era. Just three months after signing him to a new three-year, $27 million deal, the Rams benched Nick Foles for Case Keenum. Restricted free agent Keenum was promptly named the starter "entering the offseason" by coach Jeff Fisher. If Fisher had his way all the time, of course, the Rams would kick incessant field goals and run Todd Gurley repeatedly into brick walls. Hopefully for the Rams' sake, GM Les Snead realizes quarterback remains a huge need.

Wide Receiver: These are the wide receivers the Rams currently have under contract for 2016: Tavon Austin, Kenny Britt, Stedman Bailey (gunshot wounds), Bradley Marquez, Deon Long, Isiah Ferguson, and "Kain Colter." Don't feel bad if you haven't heard of half of them. The Rams haven't had a wideout clear 750 yards since Torry Holt did it in 2008. This passing game is a joke.

Offensive Line: LT Greg Robinson has been worse than anyone could've imagined through two NFL seasons, while injury machine RG Rodger Saffold (shoulder) is coming off yet another surgery. The Rams' 2015 center play was as bad as it gets, and starter Tim Barnes' contract is now expiring. Third-round pick OG Jamon Brownstruggled at guard before breaking his leg in Week 10. This offensive line is in shambles, though that's par for the Rams' course.

Defensive Back: Both of the Rams' starting cornerbacks -- RCB Janoris Jenkins and LCB Trumaine Johnson -- are headed to free agency and could strike it rich. The return of E.J. Gaines from a Lisfranc fracture should soften the blow, but Los Angeles lacks much else in the way of potential 2016 starters. Free safety is another concern with incumbent starter Rodney McLeod also ticketed for the open market.

Cleveland Browns

Notable Free Agents: C Alex Mack, WR Travis Benjamin, RT Mitchell Schwartz, FS Tashaun Gipson, ILB Craig Robertson, T/G Austin Pasztor (RFA), WR Terrelle Pryor, CB Johnson Bademosi, ILB Tank Carder

Quarterback: The Browns' only viable quarterback is Josh McCown, who turns 37 in July and is recovering from a broken collarbone. New coach Hue Jackson has proven to be a master of scheming up offense to maximize his quarterbacks' strengths and minimize weaknesses, but McCown is a short-term stopgap at best and Johnny Manziel's career may already be over.

Wide Receiver: The Browns could stabilize their wideout group to some extent by re-signing Travis Benjamin, but Benjamin would be smart to test the market as one of the top receivers available at age 26. Benjamin's loss would leave Brian Hartline, Andrew Hawkins, Taylor Gabriel, and the ghost of Dwayne Bowe as Cleveland's top returning receivers. At least until he's officially reinstated, the Browns can't count on surefire impact from Josh Gordon.

Outside Linebacker: Last year's Browns ranked 28th in sacks (29) and got only 11 from their outside linebacker position group. Armonty Bryant (5.5) led the unit, but is likely facing a suspension following a December arrest and is entering his contract year. Cleveland reportedly shopped OLB Paul Kruger at October's trade deadline, and he may now be a release candidate at his $6.5 million salary. 2013 first-rounder Barkevious Mingo has been a big disappointment. 2015 second-rounder Nate Orchard did flash promise on increased snaps down the stretch.

Offensive Line: Cleveland's lone strength the past few years, this O-Line is headed for some offseason shakeup. CAlex Mack is fully expected to opt out of his contract, while free agent RT Mitchell Schwartz may want to go to a team where his consistently solid play is more appreciated. The Browns do have intriguing in-house options in 2015 first-round pick Cameron Erving as Mack's likely replacement, and ex-Seahawk Michael Bowie as a right tackle option.

San Francisco 49ers

Notable Free Agents: NT Ian Williams, OG Alex Boone, WR Anquan Boldin, DE Tony Jerod-Eddie (RFA), K Phil Dawson, ILB Michael Wilhoite (RFA), RB Reggie Bush, RB Shaun Draughn, RB DuJuan Harris

Quarterback: New 49ers coach Chip Kelly is reportedly lukewarm on Colin Kaepernick, who is allegedly intent on getting a fresh start away from San Francisco. Blaine Gabbert played slightly better than expected down the stretch, but was still far from good. He's an NFL backup. Even if it merely entails getting Kap to "buy in" under Kelly, the 49ers need a starting quarterback.

Offensive Line: San Francisco's 2015 offensive line was abysmal, both as a run-blocking and pass-protecting unit. They're now in danger of losing stud LG Alex Boone to free agency. 49ers GM Trent Baalke has whiffed mightily on virtually all of his offensive line draft picks in recent years. Only LT Joe Staley and RG Andrew Tiller return as bankable 2016 assets.

Wide Receiver: Free agent Anquan Boldin figures to seek work for a contender going on age 36, while $40 million free agent bust Torrey Smith caught 33 passes in 16 games during his first year as a 49er. The receiver depth chart is rounded out by Bruce Ellington, Quinton Patton, Jerome Simpson, 2015 fourth-round redshirt DeAndre Smelter, and CFL import Eric Rogers.

Cornerback: Inside linebacker, outside linebacker, nose tackle, and No. 2 running back also deserve mentions on a 49ers roster that's steadily eroded on Baalke's watch. Cornerback stands out above them facing Russell Wilsonand Carson Palmer twice per year. San Francisco did get decent 2015s from LCB Tramaine Brock and slot CBJimmie Ward, though Brock is hardly a difference maker and Ward is a smallish slot defender only. The Niners need a No. 1 corner.

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• Manish Mehta can see the Giants making sense for DL Muhammad Wilkerson in a potential trade. However, he isn’t sure it’s all that plausible of an idea, seeing as the Giants likely wouldn’t be willing to part with their No. 10 overall pick and sign Wilkerson to massive contract extension.
  
• According Mehta, LB Demario Davis will likely be playing elsewhere in 2016.
  
• According to Rand Getlin, a number of NFL are hoping Jets impending free agent RB Bilil Powellends up testing the open market.
  

• Joel Corry mentions that if/when Browns C Alex Mack voids his contract, it will be after March 1 when the franchise tag period is over.
  
• Corry adds that it wouldn’t be surprising to see Mack attempt to become the league’s highest paid center at $10 million annually.
  

• Terry McCormick reports that Titans NT Al Woods is one of the team’s top priorities this offseason.
  

massraider said:

Are Bradford, Osweiller, and Cousins going to hit free agency?  Dang.  

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Mr. Irrelevant said:

Now, he might care more about getting paid what he's worth while in his prime than about that. That's certainly his prerogative. But if he does, then I don't want to hear in a few years that it's his GM's or anyone else's fault for failing to put a Super Bowl-caliber roster around him.

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massraider said:

• Terry McCormick reports that Titans NT Al Woods is one of the team’s top priorities this offseason.
  

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BoltBacker said:

There are a surprising number of OT's floating around out there as FA's this year. 

Glenn, Penn, Smith, Okung, Schwartz, Beatty, Barksdale, Clark, Bushrod, Beachum, Massie, Harris. 

There are plenty of teams around the league that could upgrade with the names on that list. There aren't a ton of potential starters in the draft either. Only two sure starters from opening day.

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Bri said:

I doubt it. Both interior DL have been hurt the last two years forcing Casey to play inside.

They traded up to get Blackson in last year's draft and loved his athleticism so much they played him at End (and threw a pass to him in preseason). 

They need more help. no doubt, and lots of it but the injuries are a big concern.

This draft is loaded with DL.

He and WhatInSamHill are in a bad spot for free agency as far as seeking huge $. DTs usually get paid well in free agency and I just don't in anyway see the Titans doing that. If it's reasonable, then I would guess that changes things and they'd consider them. Jets are gonna pay Mo a zillion, every DT will want more and....it's gotta play out. Chances are there's a more reliable FA or draft pick at a better price.

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massraider said:

Agreed.  There's just not that many sexy DTs out there, and none are penetrators.  Wilkerson doesn't count.  He's on a whole different level.  I wonder if the Titans go after Dmon Harrison, if the Jets let him walk.  Nick Fairley may wind up getting paid, by a 4-3 team.

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Bri said:

Barksdale is curious. Last year he was supposedly one of the best free agent Ts (at pass protection) available. He seemed to visit every potential team and was signed rather late by the Chargers to only a one year 2 mil deal. Their line isn't that great and now they're letting him walk. 

Okung is my fave here. I think the Hawks are gonna miss him. 

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massraider said:

Lions releasing Tulloch when new league year starts.

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Free agency is a gamble for any team. Inherently, most free agents are players who weren’t valued enough by their former teams for those organizations to pay up and keep them around. Scheme and role changes make a free agent’s impact tough to predict, but one way of trying to look into the future for some of this year’s best available players is to examine the past. In speculating on the fate for a few of the top 2016 options, we decided to play a little Choose Your Own Adventure based on some recent free-agent history.


Josh Norman, CB, Panthers


Best Case: Asante SamuelWorst Case: Nnamdi Asomugha

Dave Gettleman said last week that he’s “not afraid” to use the franchise tag, which is the likely fate for Norman this year. Before his All-Pro 2015, Norman turned down an offer in the realm of $7 million in hopes that by season’s end he’d warrant mention with the best cornerbacks in football. In the minds of fans, he’s there. The question is whether NFL teams believe he can step out of Carolina’s scheme and be the type of shutdown man-to-man corner who deserves the Revis/Sherman-type money that Norman is after.

In more ways than one, Norman’s rise in Carolina mirrors Asante Samuel’s with the Patriots. While playing on the franchise tag in 2007, Samuel turned in an All-Pro season for the best team in football. Because his franchise tender included language that prevented New England from tagging him again if he hit certain playing-time stipulations, Samuel hit free agency and cashed in with the Eagles the following spring. Even outside of Bill Belichick’s defense, Samuel was an effective player for three years in Philadelphia. Only after the Eagles brought in Nnamdi Asomugha on a five-year, $60 million deal did they ship Samuel to Atlanta.

The deal made Asomugha the richest cornerback in football, but a shift in his responsibilities and a steep decline quickly turned the contract into a nightmare. Asomugha was paid like a shutdown corner but never lived up to the billing. With Norman, that will be the ultimate fear for any team that pulls the trigger, whether that’s this offseason or next.


Marvin Jones, WR, Bengals


Best Case: Golden Tate
Worst Case: Torrey Smith

What makes Jones the most attractive option in a shallow pool of free-agent receivers is that his talent is undeniable. Though he’s average size for a receiver (6- 2) Jones is a viable deep threat with great speed and exceptional ball skills. But his ability to make an impact goes far beyond the long ball. He caught plenty of screens for a Cincinnati offense that loves to throw them. The concern with Jones is that teams still don’t have much to go by when evaluating him. After missing the entire 2014 season with an ankle injury, Jones has started only 21 games in his career.

As the Bengals’ No. 2 receiver (and with Tyler Eifert, it was more like 2a), Jones’s line this season bears a strong resemblance to Golden Tate’s during his final year in Seattle:

Jones: 103 targets, 65 catches, 816 yards, four TDs
Tate: 99 targets, 64 catches, 898 yards, five TDs

In his first year with the pass-happy Lions—thanks in part to Calvin Johnson missing some time—Tate obliterated the numbers he was putting up in Seattle (144 targets, 99 catches, 1,331 yards, four TDs). If Jones can find a similarly beneficial situation, he may have a chance to do the same. Partnering him with an all-world receiver and a solid quarterback—I’m looking at you, Falcons—would be the best chance at getting the most out of him.

The risk with players like Jones and a host of free-agent receivers like him is the chance that he’s miscast as a co-No. 1 option, similar to what Torrey Smith was last year with San Francisco. Smith’s $22 million guaranteed was 38 percent more than what Tate got in Detroit. There’s no doubt Smith can be a valuable member of an NFL offense, but in three of his four seasons with the Ravens, he topped 50 catches and 855 yards only once. Finding a true top-flight receiving option to shoulder most of the load is how to get the most out of players with a specific skill like Smith’s, and a team would be well served to give Jones a similar role. 


Eric Weddle, S, Chargers


Best Case: DeMarcus Ware
Worst Case: Jared Allen

The positions may be different, but these comparisons concern where Weddle is in his career. Their advanced ages made both Ware and Allen expendable to their teams (Dallas and Minnesota, respectively) after the 2013 season. Both would be 32 by Week 1 of the following year, but that didn’t stop teams from believing they still had plenty left in the tank and handing them each sizable long-term deals. Allen got $15.5 million from Chicago while Ware took home $20 million in guarantees from the Broncos. In the two years since, Allen has 7.5 sacks and was traded midway through the 2015 season. Ware, by comparison, has 17.5 sacks and played a significant part on the best defense in football.

Weddle is 31, so any team that wants to roll the dice on a three-time Pro Bowl safety will have to hope his production is closer to Ware’s since he arrived in Denver. Based on Weddle’s play each of the past couple seasons in San Diego, there isn’t much reason to think it won’t be. There’s a strong chance, if he lands with a contender, that he can play the sort of transformative role that Ware did early on with the Broncos.


Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Jets


Best Case: Calais Campbell
Worst Case: There isn’t one

 
Finding comparisons for Wilkerson—in terms of his market value and the possible outcomes—isn’t easy. Few players with a skill set as diverse as his ever truly hit free agency, which is a big reason the Jets are expected to slap Wilkerson with the franchise tag.

Most of the players with anything close to Wilkerson’s versatility—the likes of Calais Campbell, Cameron Jordan or Jurrell Casey—were all locked up long before hitting free agency. As Wilkerson’s agents come to the table in hopes of securing a long-term offer, the five-year, $55 million deal (with $33.47 million guaranteed) given to Jordan is probably a good place to start. Both Jordan and Wilkerson have two double-digit sack seasons since being drafted in the first round in 2011, and Wilkerson probably has the edge as a run defender. It’s still too early to pass judgment on whether the Saints or Titans will get long-term value on the deals given to Casey and Jordan, but Campbell just finished the fourth year of his five-year contract, and despite relatively modest sack totals, he’s been a vital piece on some excellent Arizona defenses.


Kelechi Osemele, G, Ravens


Best Case: Ben Grubbs
Worst Case: Andy Levitre

As someone who’d love to see Osemele on the Bears, I’m hoping his price tag doesn’t get as high as Levitre’s did when he signed with the Titans for $16 million guaranteed in 2013. But with the way the market for guards has escalated, Osemele may even exceed that. Mike Iupati got a five-year, $40 million deal with Arizona that included $22.5 million guarantees, and there’s an argument to be made that Osemele is actually the better player.

A 26-year-old who fits best at guard but can play tackle in a pinch, Osmele is among the most physically dominant players in football when he’s healthy. The hope for any team that brings him into the fold is that his career arc fits more with Grubbs’ than Levitre’s. After leaving the Ravens in free agency in 2012, Grubbs was still among the best guards in football for two of his three years with the Saints. If he can stay on the field, Osemele would be giving the prime years of his career to any team that’s willing to pay up.


Olivier Vernon, DE, Dolphins


Best Case: Cliff Avril
Worst Case: Ray Edwards

Sack numbers can often be deceiving, and in Olivier Vernon’s case, that goes both ways. Vernon’s career-high in sacks, 11.5, came in 2013, but his 7.5-sack total last season was more impressive, in more ways than one. He was a more consistent pass-rushing force in 2015 despite bringing down the quarterback fewer times, and for much of the year Miami was without edge-rushing terror Cameron Wake. When Vernon was racking up the sacks in 2013, Wake was among the best pass rushers in football and as a result, the main focus for any protection plan. When Ray Edwards had 16.5 sacks in his final two years with the Vikings, he did it with Jared Allen bothering defenses on the other side of the formation. That run ended with a five-year, $30 million deal in Atlanta. Two years later Edwards was out of the league.

Wake missed nine games in 2015, but even with him on the bench, Vernon enjoyed the luxury of playing next to Ndamukong Suh. Cliff Avril enjoyed that same luxury in Detroit, and when he did finally hit free agency, he only netted a two-year deal with the Seahawks, despite averaging double-digit sacks over his final two seasons with the Lions. Avril turned into a bargain for Seattle, and for the team that does eventually land Vernon, the best outcome would involve him maintaining his level of production without the NFL’s richest defender playing next to him.


Doug Martin, RB, Bucs


Best Case: Too Few to Actually Find OneWorst Case: Too Many to Name

Martin is among the most fascinating free-agent options not only this season but also recent memory. The former first-round pick finished 2015 with 1,402 yards—second in the league—on just 288 carries. Martin’s 4.9 yards-per-carry average was comfortably the best of his career, and he did it behind an offensive line that, while improved, could still use a bit of seasoning.

That’s just one way in which Martin is different from the top free-agent back available last year—DeMarco Murray. At least part of Murray’s rushing title can be credited to the Cowboys’ excellent offensive line. But another problem is just how much work Muarray got during the 2014 season. He ran the ball 392 times for Dallas that year—104 more carries than Martin got for the 2015 Bucs. For his career, Martin has only 868 carries, and when next season begins he’ll still only be 27. The history of free-agent running back signings is littered with poor decisions, but a team willing to take a chance and give Martin a sizable deal may be getting a player on the upswing, rather than the other way around.

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Let's ante up for a game of free-agent quarterback poker.

Here are the cards we have been dealt: Sam Bradford, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brock Osweiler. 

Not exactly four aces or even kings. More like jacks. They aren't really four of a kind, but you get the point: They have a lot in common.

All of them have shown last year's employers a little, but none has shown a lot. All would probably be happy to stay in their current locations if the money works out. All four of their current teams would like to keep them if the money is right. There is no bad blood at all, but there are hard economics at work.

The Eagles, Redskins, Jets and Broncos cannot afford to overpay based on small samples of decent-to-excellent performances. No one wants to roll out Aaron Rodgers money for these guys. But their teams don't want them to hit the open market, either. There are salary-cap, franchise-tag and other variables at play. And the first team to sign one of these quarterbacks sets the market for the others.

The team that pays first could overpay; the agent who signs first loses leverage.

So four teams, one of which is the defending NFL champion, hold their cards and wait for the others to blink. We hear reports from Bleacher Report's Jason Cole that Cousins and the Redskins are far apart and hear Broncos defender Malik Jackson, involved in contract talks of his own, stump loudly for Osweiler. But we get no actual motion.

The 2016 season, and the salary structure for young middle-tier quarterbacks moving forward, hangs in the balance of what happens when everyone shows their hands.

How the Cards Are Dealt

While we wait for someone to make a move, let's look at the cards more carefully. (Note: All cap and salary figures courtesy Over The Cap.)

Kirk Cousins turns 28 before the start of next season and is coming off a career year: 29 touchdowns, a playoff berth, a league-leading 69.8 percent completion rate. He's the toast of Washington, but it's hard to tell how much of his 10-game hot streak in 2015 was the result of real progress and how much can be attributed to an epic soft spot in the schedule.


 


Brock Osweiler is 25 years old and led the Broncos to a 5-2 record as a starter, including overtime wins against the Patriots and Bengals.Osweiler was also benched in favor of a semi-rejuvenated Peyton Manning in the season finale and playoffs and has just 305 career pass attempts under his belt. We haven't seen yet how Osweiler will react when defenses adjust to him.

Sam Bradford's stats (3,725 yards, 19 touchdowns, 14 interceptions) and record as a starter (7-7) look pretty good when adjusted for the fact that the Eagles turned into a loony bin around him. The 28-year-old stayed mostly healthy and handled himself well despite enduring 42 dropped passes, according to Pro Football Focus, (third-highest total in the NFL, on far fewer attempts than league leaders Derek Carr and Tom Brady) and a late-season near-mutiny by much of the team.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is the elder statesman of the group at 33. Like the others, he is coming off the best season of his career: 3,905 yards, 31 touchdowns, a 10-6 record as a starter. Whereas the others have a few years on the bench or injured reserve in their background, Fitzpatrick has a decade as an itinerant backup-for-hire and a failed stint as the Bills' starter in his past. He lacks the upside of the others, but he fits as a short-term solution or a potential mentor, making him appealing to both the Jets and any team that wants to play draft-and-develop at quarterback.

Now, let's look at some potential suitors for our four-of-a-kind, besides their four current employers:

The Rams have $36 million in cap space, a need at quarterback and a new set of fans to impress. They also have enough talent on defense and at running back to appeal to a free agent with options.

The Texans have $32 million in cap space and can make a convincing argument that they are one good quarterback away from the Super Bowl.

The 49ers have a whopping $55 million in cap space, no particular love of incumbent quarterback Colin Kaepernick and a pair of loose cannons running their football operations.

The Browns need a quarterback and have $38 million in cap space to burn but (1) are in great position to draft one and (2) might have a hard time luring away a free agent with other options, because they are the Browns.

These three-and-a-half teams give Cousins and Co. some leverage, but not much. Lots of promising quarterbacks entered the league in the last two seasons, several young veterans signed franchise-level contracts, and this draft class isn't bad. These quarterbacks won't enter the frenzied market of days past, when a few good starts hurdled Rob Johnson or Scott Mitchell toward the top of the quarterback pay scale. Still, any team that lowballs one of our four jacks must face the prospect of a decent team swooping in with a tempting offer.

On the other side of the supply-and-demand curve, there are other quarterbacks on the market—wild cards if you will.

Peyton Manning is likely to retire, paving the way for Osweiler in Denver. That said, there is a scenario where the Broncos release Manning and he plays a year or two elsewhere. He is kind of a white elephant on the market, a one-of-a-kind situation that can't be applied to other free agents. Still, he could take up a job or even gum up the works for Osweiler.

Robert Griffin III is Cousins' Manning: the guy with the big name and whopping salary who probably won't be on the roster next year. Griffin is more likely to find a home backing up an established veteran than competing for a starting job, but you never know.

The Bears are in rebuilding mode and are changing offensive coordinators. Jay Cutler proved he could be useful in the development of young players last year, but he's expensive—and no article about quarterback movement is complete without mentioning the possibility of a Cutler release or trade.

Nick Foles and Colin Kaepernick are under contract, but both contracts can be terminated without a crippling cap hit, and neither quarterback appears to be in his franchise's plans. Both quarterbacks are in the same age range as Cousins and Osweiler and were considered outstanding prospects not too long ago. Think of them as boiling chips on the market: Their 2015 failures are cautionary tales against splurging on one of the free agents, and they provide low-cost alternatives for a team that doesn't want to get into a bidding war over someone like Cousins.

There is one last variable in play: four unique cap situations.

The Broncos are tight against the cap but will have much more maneuverability when they buy Manning that gold watch. They still have a laundry list of in-house free agents to sort through, starting with Von Miller. The franchise tag is being held as a bargaining chip over Miller, and an Osweiler deal will probably have to defer some cap payments so the team can fit other key Super Bowl contributors likeMalik Jackson into the budget.

The Redskins' cap situation will look much better once $16 million of Griffin is cleared away. They can franchise-tag Cousins without too many ramifications for their budget, though if they give him a one-year deal in the $19.6 million range (using an NFL.com estimate of the 2016 quarterback franchise tag value) and then discover that Osweiler and the others come in at around $12 million per year, it could complicate negotiations on a long-term deal.

The Eagles have been extending in-house contracts like crazy (Lane Johnson, Zach Ertz, Vinny Curry) but still have $26 million in 2016 cap space. They also have Fletcher Cox entering the final year of his contract; Cox is the team's best player, and the Eagles want to lock him into a long-term deal that will probably fall just a little south of J.J. Watt money. The Eagles could squeeze a tagged Bradford into the budget while wading through all the transition elsewhere in the organization, but it will be tight.

The Jets have $14 million in cap space and Muhammad Wilkerson at the top of their priority list. He is likely to get tagged. Fitzpatrick would be an odd choice to be given $19.6 million for one year at this stage in his career.

How the Hand Plays Out

OK, so we know who is seated at the table and how the deck is stacked. Let's look at a variety of ways this round can play out.

The Status Quo Scenario

There is a good chance that all four major free-agent quarterbacks stay put. For that to happen, at least some of them will sign long-term deals.

Zack Moore of Over The Cap broke down the Washington salary-cap situation in detail and speculated about the size and shape of a Cousins contract. Moore set two reasonable parameters for a Cousins deal: Andy Dalton's contract at the top and Nick Foles' extension at the bottom. Let's look at those deals side-by-side in terms of their annual cap hit, which helps lump the signing bonus and roster bonuses into the player's other compensation in a way that doesn't make our heads spin:

This is a wide range of compensation, even allowing for the fact that Dalton probably will not see the final year of his contract. Dalton's resume was far superior to that of any of our four free agents before he signed his new deal in August 2014.

The Foles extension was a team-friendly wait-and-see deal (that 2017 figure is Monopoly money) after a trade. Yet you can see how contract talks with Cousins and the others might proceed: Agents for our quarterbacks arguing they are Dalton-like, teams noting the similarity in age and accomplishment to Foles last year, and everyone hoping to meet on their side of the middle.

The third column above represents a theoretical middle-ground contract for Cousins proposed by Moore. It's a four-year deal with a $12 million signing bonus, some roster bonuses and a value just north of $48 million. The first three years would be all but guaranteed. Like Dalton's contract, Cousins' deal would have significant escalators and bonuses for playoff success. It's a logical contract that compensates Cousins while protecting the Redskins. It even pushes the worst of the cap hits back a few years, making it an appealing model for the Broncos and Osweiler.

In this scenario, Cousins and Osweiler sign deals like these in the next two weeks. Bradford and Fitzpatrick sign deals that are somewhat shorter and more modest with the Eagles and Jets. Teams like the Rams and Texans look elsewhere, and everyone walks away from the table satisfied.

Why does it feel like that would just be too easy?

The Splurge Scenario

Things get interesting if one team gets carried away and offers one of our quarterbacks Dalton money—or Russell Wilson money or beyond. The most likely suspect in this scenario is the Redskins: Dan Snyder's wallet comes equipped with its own canon, the organization and city are cuckoo for Cousins right now, and (unlike the Broncos) the Redskins have money to spend.

Washington could price the Broncos out of the Osweiler market by signing Cousins to some kind of $95 million gut-buster. That would open the door for a team with more cap space to swoop in and nabOsweiler. Let's say the Rams do exactly that.

Robbed of a quarterback to help them repeat in 2016 (and still eager to part ways with Manning), the Broncos would have to look to Bradford or Fitzpatrick—either of whom could lead that defense to the playoffs—while drafting for the future. The Eagles and/or Jets would rummage for Josh McCown types. Perhaps the Eagles would trade to bring backFoles or tag Bradford to keep him out of the chain reaction. Washington would drive away whistling like the careless driver who caused the six-car pileup.

This is a fun scenario to contemplate, but it's risky for all of the teams involved. That includes the Redskins; overpaying for quarterbacks never works for them. This scenario explains just how high the stakes of our poker game are: Some agent will come away from the market with a splashy new deal, but general managers don't want that first deal to be too splashy.

The (Almost) Free-Market Scenario

In this scenario, contract talks for all four quarterbacks stall until the March 1 franchise-tag deadline. The Redskins tag Cousins at the last minute. Everyone else hits the open market on March 8, and chaos ensues.

All sorts of crazy things can happen from here, so let's just speculate on one fun set of possibilities. The Texans decide Bradford is worth a hefty four-year deal packed with incentives, and Oklahoma-born Bradford decides that Texas is a better place for him than the East Coast. Chip Kelly realizes that brainy, fleet-footed and experienced Fitzpatrick is actually a perfect short-term fit in his offense, and the 49ers make him an offer too big to refuse. The Browns and Rams, bless them, get into a bidding war over Osweiler.

This scenario is an agent's dream, because it not only drives up the market value of our four free agents but also creates interest for the likes of Kaepernick, Foles, Griffin and others among the have-nots. The first round of the draft would certainly get more interesting as well.

This probably will not happen. But keep in mind that our four quarterbacks are not guaranteed, can't-afford-to-lose-them superstars. There are some cagey decision-makers at our poker table: John Elway is not to be trifled with, Scot McCloughan now holds the bolt cutters to the lock on Snyder's vault, Mike Maccagnan is coming off an impressive debut for the Jets, and Howie Roseman can make the salary cap sing and dance in Philly.

No one is going to get held over a barrel for money he doesn't want to spend, which could create some excitement if bluffs start getting called.

The Multi-Tag Scenario

Here's the least likely possibility: Cousins gets tagged, Bradford gets tagged, the Broncos work out a monster deal for Von Miller and tagOsweiler, and Fitzpatrick signs a two- or three-year deal with the Jets with a hearty bonus. Everyone stays put but without the long-term commitments.

Tagging Osweiler and Bradford would hamstring the Broncos and Eagles competitively in 2016. It's hard to imagine how the Broncos could sign Miller and tag Osweiler without losing every other free agent on the Super Bowl roster. For the Eagles, a Bradford tag would make a Cox extension tricky and probably make re-signing Cedric Thornton and Walter Thurmond impossible.

And, of course, the franchise tag just delays the problem. If Cousins and Co. shine during their tagged seasons, they will be in the market for superstar-quarterback deals in 2017. If they falter, well, their teams spent nearly $20 million on a wasted year.

So everyone is keeping their cards close to their vests and visors pulled low over their eyes right now. Next week brings agents, coaches and executives together in Indianapolis, with a hard tag deadline looming the following Tuesday and free agency starting the week after that. Look for the bluffing to stop and the bets to start getting called soon.

But not too soon. In this poker game, there's a good reason no one wants to show their hand until the last possible minute.

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It’s chic to denounce free agency and proselytize that the right way to build a team is through the draft. While valid on the surface, it’s not the absolute truth people make it out to be.

Look at the last three Super Bowl champions. None of them would be wearing rings if not for their big free-agent acquisitions. For the Broncos, it was Peyton Manning, DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward. For the Patriots, Darrelle Revis. The Seahawks, Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril. (Seattle also traded for Marshawn Lynch in 2010, which, in some ways, is like signing a free agent but at a higher cost.) To be clear: the draft is the long-term way to build. It needs to be your entrée. But a good side dish of free agency produces a complete meal you can enjoy now.

The downside of free agency is that you can overpay for guy whose previous teams ultimately chose not to retain him. (There’s always a reason guys are available.) But on the flip side, you can also find a bargain difference-maker if you insert a dark horse acquisition into the right system. Here are 10 of those best candidates heading into 2016 free agency, as determined by their talent and the size of contract they’re likely to garner.

10. Terrance Knighton, NT, Washington (age 29)

He gets a one-year contract in free agency every year because teams are afraid he’ll eat himself into oblivion. But maybe this is the year someone gives him multiple years and a big chunk of money up front. He played well enough last season to earn it. Knighton has by far the thickest lower body in football, making his nimble feet and change-of-direction quickness downright jaw-dropping. What could keep his price tag low is the fact that he’s really just a base package nose tackle (either aligned head up on the center in a 3-4 or tilted over the center’s shoulder in a 4-3). That means he might only play 25-30 snaps a game.

9. Mitchell Schwartz, RT, Browns (age 26)

He’s not a dark horse to NFL insiders. A majority of teams could use an upgrade at right tackle. The fifth-year pro, who was drafted in the second round by the Browns and quietly improved each season, is as steady as they come. The rise in shotgun formations has diminished the whole blindside thing, making left tackles only nominally more valuable than right tackles. Don’t decry your team if it signs Schwartz to a nearly eight-figure annual deal with more than $25 million guaranteed.

8. Nick Fairley, DT, Rams (age 28)

Teams shied away from the former first-round pick in free agency last year because they couldn’t trust his on-again, off-again motor. Fairley took a humbling one-year deal to be a backup in St. Louis. There, he played extremely well, showing constant energy and effort, plus the surprising first step that once made him so appealing. Some team will gamble and sign him long-term. Then, that team will hold its breath waiting to see if a richer Fairley indeed becomes an everydown player like he was in Detroit or whether he proves best suited to come off the bench.

7. Malik Jackson, DT, Broncos (age 26)

He’s not really a dark horse after a sterling Super Bowl performance capped his dynamic late-season push. The Broncos are supposedly “negotiating in earnest” with Jackson, but he fits the profile of a guy who gets offered big dollars elsewhere. Can’t you just see him signing with a nondescript team in either the AFC or NFC South? When he does, the contract will be huge and fans might say he’s another Paul Kruger—a decent player who got paid like a great one after winning a ring. True, guys like that hit free agency all the time. But what separates Jackson from the Krugers of the world is his explosive traits. You can only do so much to teach a man quickness or initial burst off the ball; most of it just comes naturally. Jackson is an elite gap-shooting three-technique in nickel packages, plus he’s a blocker-eater on stunts and a gap-plugger on base downs, making him an all-around force. He can upgrade any defense regardless of its scheme.

6. Jaye Howard, DL, Chiefs (age 27)

Think of him as Malik Jackson lite. True, they have different styles and body types. But their impacts are similar. Jackson is a dominant sub-package player who surprises with his effectiveness on base downs against the run. Howard is a dominant base down run defender who surprises with his effectiveness as a pass rusher.

5. Husain Abdullah, S, Chiefs (age 30)

 
His price will be lower because he missed so much of the second half of this past season with a concussion. In fact, it might be in Abdullah’s best interest to take a one year “prove it” deal. He’s one of the league’s better box safeties, particularly as a de facto linebacker in the über-versatile three-safety dime packages (which more and more teams are playing these days). In 2014, Abdullah often covered top-tier tight ends man-to-man, with mostly good results. That plus his run defense in a lightened box present significant value in the right system.

4. Akiem Hicks, DL, Patriots/Saints (age 26)

Two years ago, Hicks, a third-round pick of the Saints in 2012, was as destructive as any defensive end or tackle in the NFL. But he had a somewhat quiet 2014 campaign and was shipped to New England in 2015, where he came in midseason and never quite found a niche. His niche can be that of a power interior edge player, either as a 3-4 defensive end or a strongside 4-3 end. Hicks doesn’t just shed blocks, he erupts off of them.

3. Tahir Whitehead, LB, Lions (age 25)

In 2014 Whitehead and DeAndre Levy formed the fastest nickel linebacker tandem in the NFL. (Yes, in terms of pure speed, it was even faster than Carolina’s punch of Luke Kuechly-Thomas Davis.) But last year, Whitehead had a poor preseason and struggled to find his footing in Detroit’s linebacker rotation. With Stephen Tulloch back from an ACL injury and Josh Bynes improving as a third-down player, Whitehead sat out a lot of nickel snaps, which is where defenders really earn money these days. And so he’ll be a bargain for whoever signs him this spring. Assuming he plays with discipline (which he’s improved upon), Whitehead can be at least in the NFL’s second-tier of run-and-chase ball-stoppers.

2. Brandon Thompson, DT, Bengals (age 26)

It’s a testament to Bengals veteran Domata Peko that Thompson never worked his way into the starting lineup as a nose shade. Thompson was tremendous against double-teams when forced to fill in at this position for a few games in 2013. Last season, he played mostly as a three-technique, backing up Geno Atkins. Thompson doesn’t have Atkins’s combination of movement and raw strength (few do), but he plays with natural leverage and balance. Whoever signs him will get a potential three-down force.

1. George Iloka, S, Bengals (age 25)

Don’t be surprised if Iloka scores one of the 10 biggest contracts in free agency this year. Safeties are increasingly valuable in today’s NFL, and he’s one who can play centerfield or in the box. He also has experience as a corner from his days at Boise State, though he’d have to be used unexpectedly and sparingly in this capacity. At 6’4”, 225 pounds, and with arms so long he can practically tie his shoes without bending over, Iloka has the innate physical traits to be elite.

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massraider said:

Rams release Chris Long, Jared Cook,  and James Laurinaitis.

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According to Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Browns free agent S Tashaun Gipsonwould like to remain with the team, but there have been no substantial talks in recent months, and he’s now preparing to move on.

Cabot mentions that Gipson has made it clear that he’d like to re-sign with the Browns, especially now that they’ve brought Ray Horton back to run their defense.

However, indications are that the Browns will allow him to test the open market and sign with another team.

Last year, reports said that Gipson was looking for a similar contract to the one signed by Patriots S Devin McCourty, who received a five-year deal worth $47.5 million and included $28.5 million guaranteed.

Unfortunately for Gipson, he dealt with injuries in 2015 and is coming off of a disappointing season, so it’s unlikely he’ll come close to that kind of contract.

Gipson, 25, signed on with the Browns as an undrafted free agent out of Wyoming back in 2012. He signed a one-year restricted tender with the Browns worth $2.356 million last year.

In 2015, Gipson has appeared in 13 games for the Browns and recorded 60 tackles, two interceptions and two pass defenses.

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thatguy said:

I'm surprised that David Bruton isn't even mentioned in the "honorable mention" portion of that list.  Some team is going to get a very good safety at a bargain price if Denver is unable to resign him. 

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