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MFL10 2016 (1 Viewer)

BroadwayG

Footballguy
Thought I'd start up a new thread for the new year.  This is the first day.  8 leagues started the first day last year.  Already 36 live leagues in the system.  I'll likely end up ~ 100 leagues again, but I'm just running one at a time for a while.  I'll see if I get get my web app running this weekend.

First draft, had 10 slot, went Peterson/Evans.  Using the Mock Draft Forum WSLs as an extremely rough outline for ADP for this first one.

 
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Very cool, and close to how my draft has been going.

I stayed away from Lacy last year but thought he might be a value this season... not according to that board. Seems way too early to me. That is the player that stands out the most imo.

Eta, nevermind. Guess that was just one draft he went in the first round.

 
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Just bought my first one of the year. Good news it that zero top 2 finishes last year means I have no where to go but up. 

 
Just bought my first one of the year. Good news it that zero top 2 finishes last year means I have no where to go but up. 
What do you plan to do differently? Not interested in specific players that failed you..... more interested in general strategies that you tried last year that didn`t work out and you plan to abandon.

 
A) I plan to have a plan. Some very ugly drafts at the beginning last year. 

B) Not as much stock in one player. Lev Bell was a tough one because I drafted him so high, so much. Didn't get much on D.Will because he ended up going pretty early.

C) Go after some good value rookies in these early drafts. Zeke, Doctson, Coleman, Treadwell, Henry could all have decent production regardless of landing spots. 

D) Maybe go WR early and they just load up at RB in the later rounds. 

 
Hmmmm, I thought D. Williams was going pretty late last year, even after he signed with PIT. I remember after the NFL draft I had him on several teams and sometimes he was even in the 200`s. He was one of the guys I was taking when other folks were drafting 3rd(and even 4th) defenses. It`s one of the reasons I ended up with multiple teams with only one defense.

 
Rawls went #15 just now. I will follow his roller-coaster with interest.

I noticed FantasySharks ranks him as the #16 RB between CJ Anderson and Matt Jones. Some of their projections seem out there, but last year they had Theo Riddick higher than anyone else and I should have paid attention and gotten some shares very late. Again, often times when other folks are getting 3rd/4th defenses.

 
Hmmmm, I thought D. Williams was going pretty late last year, even after he signed with PIT. I remember after the NFL draft I had him on several teams and sometimes he was even in the 200`s. He was one of the guys I was taking when other folks were drafting 3rd(and even 4th) defenses. It`s one of the reasons I ended up with multiple teams with only one defense.
Probably. 200 would be the 8th round. Whatever round it he was going I wasn't planning on taking a guy I thought was going to play 2-4 games and didn't think he would put up amazing numbers in those games. 

I'm not sure there's a ton to be learnt from that situation. Fred Jackson in Seattle last year would've been a similar situation and I don't think Jackson help many teams win their league. 

 
Just started my first. I only do ~10 but like to do one at a time and start early. Got #2 pick. So far Beckham, Demarius and Landry. I'm definitely taking WRs early and loading up on RBs later. I am eyeing McCoy and Demarco soon though. We will see.... 

 
A good tip that Broadway pointed out last year, you can MFL's sortable ADP to get a more accurate ADP list then just copy and paste into your My Draft List. 

 
I'll keep the first post updated for a while until I get something better configured.

Peterson and Lacy seem like great bargains at the moment.  WR overcompensation at full throttle.  Rookie fever hasn't taken hold yet.

Martavis Bryant is one I feel comfortable saying I will have no part of at his price.

 
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I don`t think we will see rookie fever until we see some fast times at the combine.

I knew the "wait on qb" crew would be bolstered by last year but..... wow. We are in the 50's and nobody has taken one yet.

 
I realize this may be a dumb question, but is there a screen on the site where you can see all the rosters in a grid format? They used to have a "rosters" button on the homepage but it isn't there anymore. Weird change to make.

 
I realize this may be a dumb question, but is there a screen on the site where you can see all the rosters in a grid format? They used to have a "rosters" button on the homepage but it isn't there anymore. Weird change to make.
Yup, pretty bizarre not to have easy access to everyone's rosters. 

You have to go reports--franchise--rosters. That will take you to the familiar rosters screen. 

 
Sucks because I used to do a lot of these, but now I can't (live in Iowa).  Were a lot of fun and helped scratch the want to draft itch.

 
Through 8 rounds:

Peterson(1), Lacy(3), J Hill (6), Forsett (8)

Evans(2), Baldwin(4), Crabtree(5), Diggs(7)

Add the CIN backs and Forsett to the supreme values at RB.

Have my site configured to house the web app, we'll see how much I can get converted tomorrow.

 
QB and TE values are ridiculous. Took Olsen at 4.11 and now regret it after seeing how far every TE other than Gronk and Reed have fallen. Took Bortles at 9.2

im pretty firmly in the "zero RB camp." At least with a high pick where I'm targeting the top four WRs. I only do one draft at a time though so that strategy may change depending on my next slot.

 
Through 8 rounds:

 Forsett (8)
He went in the 7th in my league.

I got burned last year by badly mis-judging his floor(not so much his rushing but his receiving) last season so I will admit I am biased but I don't see the value. Buck Allen is younger and cheaper and a good passing down option. Everyone wants Forte to sign with NE but he had his best years in the Trestman offense and Ozzie has shown he's willing to sign "declining" vets like Boldin/Smith and get production out of them at the end of their career. Even if you don't think Forte has a chance of signing and you don't like Allen, Forsett will turn 31during the season so isn't there a solid chance they draft a guy?

What makes you think this is still his job? Even when he was healthy Forsett didn't look nearly as good last season and if they bring in anyone else I wouldn't be shocked if he was asked to take a paycut or lose his roster spot in 2016. I am probably not touching this mess until after FA/draft.

 
Updated first post with a link to an ADP list from my website.  It will be updated regularly.  More bells and whistles to come, but free time is sparse these days.

 
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Martavis Bryant is one I feel comfortable saying I will have no part of at his price.
I love him, but I agree.  Feel the same way about Devante Parker for now, though that may change. Though that said, I my grab them both in a few leagues if they fall a half round past ADP and I'm in the right spot.

i started my first MFL 10 on Saturday, will be working off credits from last year's 2nds. I was slightly profitable last year and the key, I think, was simply diversifying broadly and constantly mining value relative to ADP. 

 
im pretty firmly in the "zero RB camp." At least with a high pick where I'm targeting the top four WRs. I only do one draft at a time though so that strategy may change depending on my next slot.
Seems a common attitude... I'll try every strategy somewhere, but I'll probably react to this by trying to land at least 2 RBs in the first four rounds, and 3 by the 6th.

 
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I've been somewhat WR heavy the last couple years but will for sure be WR heavy this year.  Been doing some mock drafts on FFC and really liked taking 3 to 4 WRs to start my draft.  There are a lot of RBs that have fallen that could be decent like Forte, Forsette and Gordon.

I'm in the middle of my first MFL10 now and it hasn't gone as planned do to some poor pre-drafting on my part.  My first 4 rounds were WRs and 6th pick was Luck.  Luck and 4th WR I took were not what I wanted.

 
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The ADP list in the OP link can be copied and pasted into the MFL MyDraftList.  You're on your own to delete CJ Uzomah from the list.  I update it in the morning and periodically throughout the day.

Oh, remember to remove the players from the existing list and save if you copy it in again later.

 
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The ADP list in the OP link can be copied and pasted into the MFL MyDraftList.  You're on your own to delete CJ Uzomah from the list.  I update it in the morning and periodically throughout the day.

Oh, remember to remove the players from the existing list and save if you copy it in again later.
Very interesting data, thanks for posting it.

I wasn't criticizing your Forsett pick btw, just interested in hearing your take on the player and why you thought he was such a value.

 
Seems a common attitude... I'll try every strategy somewhere, but I'll probably react to this by trying to land at least 2 RBs in the first four rounds, and 3 by the 6th.
Yeah, in my draft almost everyone is in on the "Hammer WR first, then hammer RB" theory. It will be interesting to see what strategies will rise to take advantage of this trend.

 
BoltBacker said:
Very interesting data, thanks for posting it.

I wasn't criticizing your Forsett pick btw, just interested in hearing your take on the player and why you thought he was such a value.
Well, I pretty much discount them going after Forte, they're in a cap nightmare, and have much bigger issues than RB.  They may take a flyer in the draft, but I would be shocked if it is a premium pick.

I'm just not sold on Allen taking over the starting role.  He put up gaudy numbers in the second half of the season when Smith, Forsett, Flacco were all out.  With everyone healthy, including Perriman, my guess is he'll be back to where he was the first half of last season, a situational guy.

While Forsett is certainly not the tail end RB1 we thought going into last season, he wasn't awful.  He's got a RB35ish price right now, and as of this moment, I think that his September price will be around RB25.  I certainly can't fault anyone for buying into Allen's monster 2nd half though.

 
Yup, pretty bizarre not to have easy access to everyone's rosters. 

You have to go reports--franchise--rosters. That will take you to the familiar rosters screen. 
Ok, here's another one for you. 

In the past I have been able to find all my leagues under "My Leagues" -> "All My Leagues".

This year not all my leagues(a grand total of 2) are listed. Weird.

It's also odd that the league # is no longer clearly labeled on the home page of the league at the top of the page. So if you are in several you can't just glance at the screen and tell what league you are looking at.

No wonder it took a few extra weeks to start MFL 10's this year with all these "improvements". 

 
Yeah, in my draft almost everyone is in on the "Hammer WR first, then hammer RB" theory. It will be interesting to see what strategies will rise to take advantage of this trend.
Perhaps I spoke too soon. Through six rounds in my second league only four owners have more of another position than they have RB's. Big difference from the first draft I was in. 

 
Is there a reason DeVante Parker's ADP is around 20 spots higher than Fitzgerald's? Moncrief is also going about 10 spots higher than Fitz. I'm just trying to see if there's something I'm missing here.

 
I can actually understand the Moncrief ranking more than Parker. Luck coming back and AJ leaving(which most people are predicting) would be huge for Moncrief, not because AJ had so much production but then Moncrief would have that role all to himself. The TE position is also up in the air. His targets could rise a great deal imo.

With Fitzgerald it's not just his age but the age and health of Palmer as well. If either Palmer/Fitz get dinged(and they are the age to get dinged) then Fitz production could really go down. Additionally, it wouldn't be shocking to me if the Cardinals try to lean on DJ/CJ/Ellington and rush the ball next season more than they did in 2015. 

Parker is a young, sexy pick. I agree with you he's being drafted purely on potential and that's a dangerous game to play. He is kind of the anti-Fitz.

 
Added a little extra to the site.  See OP.  Things go slowly as I typically only get a few hours a week to tinker around with this.  Next update will be some player scatter charts.

 
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Added a little extra to the site.  See OP.  Things go slowly as I typically only get a few hours a week to tinker around with this.  Next update will be some player scatter charts.
Dude this is awesome!!! I tried cutting and pasting the ADP but it's a hassle not seeing who's already gone. This is gold! Thanks man!!

 
Dude this is awesome!!! I tried cutting and pasting the ADP but it's a hassle not seeing who's already gone. This is gold! Thanks man!!
For the copy and paste, use the For Owners|My Draft List option in your league.  Click import and then do the paste.  If you have a list in there already, you should empty it first.

 
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Yeah, in my draft almost everyone is in on the "Hammer WR first, then hammer RB" theory. It will be interesting to see what strategies will rise to take advantage of this trend.
You also don't want to just do the opposite of what everyone else does.  You want to be at the start of runs.  So if you go RB when everyone is taking WR, chances are before you pick again it will be a lot more WR's so getting that top RB doesn't give you much advantage over someone who may pick the 2nd best RB 6 picks later.  Even though everyone is going to go WR WR RB, I wouldn't get cute and try to go QB/TE/RB in early rounds as they will likely fall to later rounds.

 
Getting into the back end of my first MFL10 this year. I'll admit that I didn't have any type of plan for this first one and pretty much just went at it blind. I was in a hurry to start drafting, I'll be more prepared heading into my next one. I picked from the (4) slot, and honestly haven't paid too much attention to this draft. I've just made my picks as they've come up. Haven't really gotten into the swing of things yet.

Luck (6)

Gurley(1), Zeke(3), Demarco(5), Coleman(11), Booker(12)

Evans(2), Floyd(4), Diggs(7), Snead(8), VJax(10)

ASJ(9), Clay(14)

DEN DST(13) *Never saw my OTC notice and this pick timed out. 

I let the 2nd TE run pass me by. Between rounds 8-12, a lot of the mid range TEs started coming off the board. I definitely would have taken another TE earlier had I been paying attention. I was kind of sick to my stomach when I realized what TEs were left when I took Clay.

QBs came off the board even slower than in year's past IME. I took Luck at 6.09 as the QB2 (Rodgers came off the board 1st at 5.11).That's another pick that I'd like to do over, though I believe Luck will have a big year.

Rookie WRs do appear to be a bargain right now. The first rookie WRs to come off the board were Treadwell at 9.09 and Coleman at 9.11 at WR49 and WR50. So when the first rookie WRs are coming off the board as high end WR5s, there's definitely upside there. 

The other rookie WRs drafted so far have been Braxton Miller (12.10, WR58), Doctson (13.10, WR61), and Shepard (14.10, WR64). That's it, we're now in the early 15th and only those 5 rookie WRs are off the board. 

Rookie RBs have come off in this order, Zeke(RB11, 3.04, my pick), Henry (7.12, RB32), Collins (10.06, RB42), Dixon (12.06, RB52), Booker (12.09, RB53, my pick). So after going through all the picks, it looks like there's a lot of potential value/upside with a lot of the rookies right now while we're still pre-draft. It looks like picking the right rookie(s) in the mid rounds might be league winners in these early drafts. Thought I'd post all of this in case anyone was curious of rookies in early MFL10s.

 
Just messing around with one of these MFL10s in February.  Not sure if some of these would have slid further or not.  There are still a lot of QBs left to pick from.  Cam was QB1 at 6.08

RB : David Johnson (1.09), Derrick Henry (6.04), Buck Allen (7.09), Matt Jones (8.04), Paul Perkins (10.04)

WR : Brandon Marshall (2.04), Martavis Bryant (3.09), DeVante Parker (4.04), Michael Floyd(5.09)

TE : Julius Thomas (9.09), Antonio Gates (11.09)

Nothing too exciting here.  Just an early glimpse. 

 
You also don't want to just do the opposite of what everyone else does.  You want to be at the start of runs.  So if you go RB when everyone is taking WR, chances are before you pick again it will be a lot more WR's so getting that top RB doesn't give you much advantage over someone who may pick the 2nd best RB 6 picks later.  Even though everyone is going to go WR WR RB, I wouldn't get cute and try to go QB/TE/RB in early rounds as they will likely fall to later rounds.
I think I was a bit premature with this. Since that first league, which felt pretty tightly drafted, I haven't noticed the WR-run, followed by the RB-run nearly as much. In fact I'm in a league right now where Lacy and Woodhead(!) were drafted in the 2nd round, and Langford went at the top of the 3rd. So RB's are actually sliding up the ADP.

Yeah, and nobody is trying to go QB anywhere near the first three rounds. Same with TE, save for Gronk. It's interesting to see how the WR and RB ebb and flow.

 
I think I was a bit premature with this. Since that first league, which felt pretty tightly drafted, I haven't noticed the WR-run, followed by the RB-run nearly as much. In fact I'm in a league right now where Lacy and Woodhead(!) were drafted in the 2nd round, and Langford went at the top of the 3rd. So RB's are actually sliding up the ADP.

Yeah, and nobody is trying to go QB anywhere near the first three rounds. Same with TE, save for Gronk. It's interesting to see how the WR and RB ebb and flow.
There will be some RBs creeping up for sure.  I just mean compared to even last year, there's going to be way more WR in the first 2 rounds then there was last year.  We still had 3-4 RBs going top 5 last year, and this year we may not see that 4th rb off the board even in the first 15.  Thats an incredible difference.  Even if people are taking RBs early, I think youre going to be on the wrong end of a position run if you don't take a top wr in round 1.

 
A) I plan to have a plan. Some very ugly drafts at the beginning last year. 

B) Not as much stock in one player. Lev Bell was a tough one because I drafted him so high, so much. Didn't get much on D.Will because he ended up going pretty early.

C) Go after some good value rookies in these early drafts. Zeke, Doctson, Coleman, Treadwell, Henry could all have decent production regardless of landing spots. 

D) Maybe go WR early and they just load up at RB in the later rounds. 


How well have you been sticking to your plan?

B) This was probably #1 to me this year, and yet I find myself getting invested heavily in Lamar Miller already. I have never bought in on him before but this seems like the opportunity so many people have been waiting for. It's still early, but I may have to tap the breaks on that guy a little bit. Anyone else getting overly invested on a player early?

C) Not my typical strategy but I did draft Michael Thomas in my first draft. Anyone else going in heavy on a specific rookie? Seems like after the combine and before his pro-day Alex Collins may be a value pretty late. I was hoping Procise would be available very late but with so many yawners at the combine it seems like he stood out a bit and is now on the radar more than he was before the combine. 

 
Haven't been following the plan that well. Still on my first one. AP at 2.04


04


Newton, Cam CAR QB


391.3


5


4.04


Collins, Alex FA RB (R) 


-


-


12.04


Forte, Matt CHI RB


194.7


7


5.09


Morris, Alfred WAS RB


86.6


8


11.09


Peterson, Adrian MIN RB


246.9


5


2.04


West, Charcandrick KCC RB


128.6


9


15.09


Benjamin, Kelvin CAR WR (Q)


-


5


3.09


Bryant, Dez DAL WR (P)


89.1


6


1.09


Coleman, Corey FA WR (R) 


-


-


9.09


Crowder, Jamison WAS WR


113.7


8


10.04


Green-Beckham, Dorial TEN WR


102.8


4


7.09


Jackson, DeSean WAS WR


106.8


8


8.04


Eifert, Tyler CIN TE (P)


176.4


7


6.04


Henry, Hunter FA TE (R) 


-


-


13.09


Watson, Ben NOS TE


172.6


11


16.04


 
My draft hasn't gone as planned as I didn't pre-draft very well.  I had a few auto picks in the middle of the night.  Here's my team so far.


Player


2015 YTD Pts


Bye


Drafted


Luck, Andrew IND QB


149.5


10


6.02


Ryan, Matt ATL QB


256.8


10


13.11


Wentz, Carson FA QB (R)


-


-


18.02


Artis-Payne, Cameron CAR RB


21.0


5


16.02


Coleman, Tevin ATL RB (P)


42.6


10


10.02


Gordon, Melvin SDC RB (Q)


108.3


10


5.11


Ivory, Chris NYJ RB


194.6


5


7.11


Williams, Karlos BUF RB (P)


112.6


8


8.02


Austin, Tavon RAM WR


183.5


6


11.11


Bryant, Dez DAL WR (P)


89.1


6


1.11


Bryant, Martavis PIT WR


169.2


11


4.02


Coleman, Corey FA WR (R)


-


-


14.02


Cooper, Amari OAK WR


208.7


6


2.02


Gordon, Josh CLE WR (S)


-


11


3.11


Thomas, Michael FA WR (R)


-


-


17.11


Seferian-Jenkins, Austin TBB TE


71.0


6


9.11


Williams, Maxx BAL TE


53.5


9


12.02


Bengals, Cincinnati CIN Def


146.0


7


15.11

 
My draft hasn't gone as planned as I didn't pre-draft very well.  I had a few auto picks in the middle of the night.  Here's my team so far.


Player


2015 YTD Pts


Bye


Drafted


Luck, Andrew IND QB


149.5


10


6.02


Ryan, Matt ATL QB


256.8


10


13.11


Wentz, Carson FA QB (R)


-


-


18.02


Artis-Payne, Cameron CAR RB


21.0


5


16.02


Coleman, Tevin ATL RB (P)


42.6


10


10.02


Gordon, Melvin SDC RB (Q)


108.3


10


5.11


Ivory, Chris NYJ RB


194.6


5


7.11


Williams, Karlos BUF RB (P)


112.6


8


8.02


Austin, Tavon RAM WR


183.5


6


11.11


Bryant, Dez DAL WR (P)


89.1


6


1.11


Bryant, Martavis PIT WR


169.2


11


4.02


Coleman, Corey FA WR (R)


-


-


14.02


Cooper, Amari OAK WR


208.7


6


2.02


Gordon, Josh CLE WR (S)


-


11


3.11


Thomas, Michael FA WR (R)


-


-


17.11


Seferian-Jenkins, Austin TBB TE


71.0


6


9.11


Williams, Maxx BAL TE


53.5


9


12.02


Bengals, Cincinnati CIN Def


146.0


7


15.11
You're in my draft.  :)

 
My draft hasn't gone as planned as I didn't pre-draft very well.  I had a few auto picks in the middle of the night.  Here's my team so far.


Player


2015 YTD Pts


Bye


Drafted


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Thomas, Michael FA WR (R)


-


-


17.11


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 
Wow, I was pretty happy getting Thomas at pick 195. Seems to me like a lot of upside on Thomas at pick 203. Well done.

Not trying to call you out but those TE's look a 'lil ragged. Did somebody snipe some of your targets?

 
Thought I'd start up a new thread for the new year.  This is the first day.  8 leagues started the first day last year.  Already 36 live leagues in the system.  I'll likely end up ~ 100 leagues again, but I'm just running one at a time for a while.  I'll see if I get get my web app running this weekend.

First draft, had 10 slot, went Peterson/Evans.  Using the Mock Draft Forum WSLs as an extremely rough outline for ADP for this first one.

New board completely messed up the code window too.  Looks like crap but here's some ADP after 4 hours.

http://www.ffpages.com/mfl10/Main/DraftList

Added league selection only showing available players for the league as well as a rough trend/target point.

http://www.ffpages.com/mfl10/Main/Adv
What IIs the meanIng of trend and target?

And what IS the di Fference, IF any between your adp and the adp  Provided on the mfl10 site?

Thanks.

 
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