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BroadwayG

MFL10 2016

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Very nice return BroadwayG ?

For me: 44 teams; 6 1st's, 2 2nd's. 2015 could have spoiled me, but I am pretty satisfied with a result that is realistic and profitable.

Next year I think I will wait until after the NFL draft and release of the schedule before I do any drafting.

OK guys, let's hear about those monster seasons! I want to get pumped up for next year.

 

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Slightly profitable year for me but still disappointed.   33 teams;  4 firsts and 2 seconds.    At one point early in the year I had 8 first place teams but injuries took their toll.

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This was my first year doing these and I only had 10 entries... 1 first and 2 second place finishes... so thats 100 plus 4 entries, right? 

I'll probably just reinvest and roll with 14 entries next year.  Thanks BG for your draft assistance page! It was a huge help!

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Each 2nd is only one entry.  But you're not negative which is always a positive.

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Did 13 MFL10s. Won 2 and took 3 2nds. Not too shabby I guess. The year before I did 11 and although didn't win any, I got 4 seconds. So I rolled that into this year: $90 plus credits in, $200 and 30 in credits out.

Breakdown:

1st 2

2nd 3

3rd 1

4th 2

7th 1

10th 2

12th 1

 

As you can see I had very few teams middle of the pack. They either did well or stank. A did a quick autopsy on my teams and I can tell you a few things: 1) in most cases I drafted 2 QBs, 2 TEs and 2 Ds. The other 14 spots were all backs and receivers. My D picks were quite good. Most teams had Minn and Philadelphia usually together.

2. I got tops three picks in most of the good ones. So they had Beckham, Brown and one had Julio. No doubt this helped. One team had DJ taken 10th and Ellito in the third, that didn't suck. 

So for the most part those stud WRs top of the draft payed off. I think it will be interesting next year as we see the top RBS reemerge as top picks. I will be thrilled to get picks 4-7 if that's the case and stil go after the best WRs. 

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3 hours ago, Kwai Chang Caine said:

Did 13 MFL10s. Won 2 and took 3 2nds. Not too shabby I guess. The year before I did 11 and although didn't win any, I got 4 seconds. So I rolled that into this year: $90 plus credits in, $200 and 30 in credits out.

Breakdown:

1st 2

2nd 3

3rd 1

4th 2

7th 1

10th 2

12th 1

 

As you can see I had very few teams middle of the pack. They either did well or stank. A did a quick autopsy on my teams and I can tell you a few things: 1) in most cases I drafted 2 QBs, 2 TEs and 2 Ds. The other 14 spots were all backs and receivers. My D picks were quite good. Most teams had Minn and Philadelphia usually together.

2. I got tops three picks in most of the good ones. So they had Beckham, Brown and one had Julio. No doubt this helped. One team had DJ taken 10th and Ellito in the third, that didn't suck. 

So for the most part those stud WRs top of the draft payed off. I think it will be interesting next year as we see the top RBS reemerge as top picks. I will be thrilled to get picks 4-7 if that's the case and stil go after the best WRs. 

I did similar. Played 12 and won 2 and got 1 second. Had a bunch of 3rds and 4ths.  

One winner started at 1.04 where I drafted Julio. The other 2 I started 1.12 where I drafted Jordy Nelson.

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9 hours ago, BroadwayG said:

Final tally: 24 firsts, 14 2nd.  Landed exactly on my target win number which is very pleasing given the state of things a few weeks ago.  Tried 10 25s which got me zero return.  I can also claim best team overall, too bat this isn't a GPP.

So 1600 in, 2400 out, plus 140 in league credit next year.  That's a nice chunk o change, maybe I'll get myself a new computer to use as a host for my web app next year.

Nice win %. Sorry, I don't follow this thread much. Which web app?

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I had set up a site to track ADP from all the MFL10 leagues with some basic trend information as well as ADP charts.

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Brutal end to the season for me. Ended up with....

1st place = 6%

2nd place = 12%

3rd place = 16%

Started with several injuries, but was up to 24% 1st place standing for awhile. Late injuries pushed 1st place teams into 2nd, and 2nd place teams into third. Rough month of December.

But I learned a valuable lesson: Don't ever get too much injury exposure to a single player. Bad news is I learn that lesson over and over again in the MFL 10's. 

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I appreciate the information about your experiences with MFL10. This was my first year playing MFL10. I very much like the format of these draft only leagues. I only played 4 MFL10s. I had two leagues where I was on the WR heavy philosophy. I had Beckham and Julio coupled with TY Hilton, and Nelson to boot on two different team. Unfortunately, I struck out with Cam, Benjamin, and other busts. Did not turn out well by finishing in the middle. 

For the other two leagues I wised up and went RB heavy with Johnson on both coupled with Freeman and Blount. Cam and other busts and injuries killed one team to a 4th place finish while Cousins and the strong RB lineup lead my team to score 2628 and a win!

What I noticed was not much jockeying of the top teams throughout the season once patterns were set (e.g., Cam was not meant to be) except for injury plagued teams.

Congrats to those who did well this season!

 

 

 

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Was checking the leader board on the site.  2nd most entries was Osceola48.

Games played...all 10's...530 (531 but one didn't have results)

1st - 180 (winning % - 34%)

Net (including credits) - $13,740

ROI - 359.2%

This is #######' incredible!  Anyone know who this guy is? 

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14 hours ago, Yotes1 said:

Was checking the leader board on the site.  2nd most entries was Osceola48.

Games played...all 10's...530 (531 but one didn't have results)

1st - 180 (winning % - 34%)

Net (including credits) - $13,740

ROI - 359.2%

This is #######' incredible!  Anyone know who this guy is? 

Agreed, that is shockingly good.

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Indeed.  His volume/results this year will likely never be approached again.  Just insane from wire to wire.  Based solely on my memory, he did a lot of leagues last year as well, but I don't think he did very well.  I seem to remember feeling sorry for him, and I know he did not hit 50% return based on the top ROI spreadsheet from last year.  I also don't remember listening to any podcasts or reading any articles where he was mentioned in the past couple of years. In any case, this season makes up for any deficiencies he may have had in the past 4 years. 

Edited by BroadwayG

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No big surprises as far as positional quantity results.

QB - 2 bested 3 by 15 points and and 1% winrate
RB - 6 bested 5 by 4 points, and 7 by 14 points.  however 7RB winrate took a dive compared to 5 and 6, off by nearly 2%.  Curiously 3 RB had an 11% winrate despite a comparatively abysmal scoring average.  I was very skeptical (skeptical being extremely kind) of the 'hyperfragile' concept by @beerswater, but he may be on to something
WR - 7/8 nearly identical at the top here, 20 points above 6 and 35 above 9 and a 1.5% winrate above both of the ends.
TE - Even closer than QB, 3 was a hair better than 2 by 4.5 points and 0.2% winrate.
Def - This might be the first year 2 outperformed 3 with a 5 point advantage and a 0.5% winrate.

Balance has shown to pay off year after year, and navigating your drafts to generate a balanced lineup is one of the easiest things you can do.

As far as overall roster construction goes:

Avg Pnt   QB   RB   WR   TE   Def  Count   Avg Rk
2209.6    2    5    8    3    2    2450    5.97
2208.4    2    4    8    3    3    501     6.17
2206.5    2    6    7    3    2    6376    6.09
2204.9    3    6    7    2    2    5062    6.18
2200.7    2    5    7    3    3    4986    6.07
2199.0    2    6    8    2    2    3756    6.22
2197.2    2    5    8    2    3    1462    6.20
2191.8    2    6    7    2    3    2248    6.26
2190.5    3    5    8    2    2    1611    6.38
2190.4    2    7    6    3    2    1556    6.43

 

Edited by BroadwayG

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I sampled Osceola's last 50 winning teams from July 29 to when registration closed to see what his general strategy was.  First off, almost 100% he went 3QB/6RB/7WR/2TE/2D for roster distribution. By luck of draw he drafted 1-3 19 times, 4-6 10 times, 6-9  16 times, and 10-12 5 times.  Only once did he draft a RB with picks 1-6 (Gurley at 4).  Following the general trend, he went RB after the top 5 ADP WR's were gone.  I know the numbers don't jibe with Broadway's QB/TE distribution, but it seemed to work for him.  His general trends by position were:

QB- Almost exclusively he drafted 2 QBs back to back in the 9-11 range going heavy with a combinations of Cousins (21x), Stafford (16),Bortles (15),and Ben (14).  He picked up 3rd QB in the 13-15 range with the likes of Smith, Tannehill, Fitz, etc.  Only 4 times did he digress from this strategy picking Cam twice in the 5th, Luck once at 6, and Wilson once at 7.  No Rodgers, Brees, and only had Ryan once at 14. 

RB- Somewhat interesting that once he had his first 2 RBs, he seemed to not invest in PPR types in the middle rounds.  No Gio, Duke, Sims.  Riddick twice, and Woodhead once.  Filled out the position in late rounds with guys like Kelley (12x), T. West (22x) and Hightower (13x).  In 27 of the 50 drafts he went with combos of Freeman/Coleman, Ingram/Hightower, Murray/Henry, and Bell/DWill.  Of the 21 times he drafted later than 6, he hit gold with DJ or Zeke 17 times.  Gurley and Miller once.  No APs, or Charles.

WR - In the middle rounds when others were filling out RB spot he was filling out his WRs.  Really heavy on T Benjamin (22x), Garcon (21x) and Rishard Matthews (19x).  He seemed to really target these guys and didn't hesitate going a round or two early on them. 

TE - Went with Gronk twice in 2nd, but almost exclusively went the Reed, Olsen, Walker, Fleener route in rounds 4-7, and picked up 2nd tight end late.  Picked up Rudolph a whopping 27 out of 50 drafts in rounds 15-18. 

DST - Never drafted one earlier than 15.  Occasionally would do so then with Chief/Viking types, but did a lot of Eagle/Giant types at 17 or 18 and filled out last spot at 20.

So...conclusions?  Nothing earth-shattering.  He didn't reinvent the wheel or anything, but was extremely disciplined in roster construction.  After 1st round he didn't lock himself into anything but just picking up best available.  Just real solid and seemed to have guys that he targeted and didn't mind reaching a bit for, but also knew he didn't HAVE to have them. 

As far as pertaining to 2017?  I'm thinking the landscape will change somewhat in that the general public will swing back to not going WR crazy as much as this year, but the general roster construction, waiting on QBs, etc. will still be solid ways to approach draft.

If any of you would like the excel spreadsheet of the 50 drafts...PM me with your email and I'll get it to you. 

Edit:  Trivial, but he used a different team name almost every time.  Just seemed to pick something out of the hat, or used a friend's name (male or female).  Did use the name Mike H. twice.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Yotes1
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On 12/27/2016 at 6:38 PM, Yotes1 said:

Was checking the leader board on the site.  2nd most entries was Osceola48.

Games played...all 10's...530 (531 but one didn't have results)

1st - 180 (winning % - 34%)

Net (including credits) - $13,740

ROI - 359.2%

This is #######' incredible!  Anyone know who this guy is? 

The number 1 volume guy didn't do too bad either. I don't have the software to count up his stats but just glancing I see lots of 1's and 2's.

One of last year's top 5 volume and ROI guys TJ Calkins came in at #32 in volume this year. He was interviewed by RotoViz in June I think. He played 100 leagues and, by my count, won only 3? How the mighty have fallen.

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It's definitely not easy to just up and double your number of leagues from the prior year and keep your rate of performance.  Aaron H is the only guy I've seen turn a decent profit 3 years running.  @nickcrepas and steve have both done very well the past two years.  I'm sure there are more, but it is a slim list.  This is a list of everyone who played 75 leagues or more (with the same name) and had a winrate of 15% or more.  9 of 71 owners who match the criteria.  If you extend the list to only 50 or more leagues, you get 20 of 188 with 15%

Owner Name         Wins    Lgs    WinRate
Derek S            20       96    0.208
Confident Champion 23      130    0.176
Lucky Winner!      24      138    0.173
Nick C             32      187    0.171
@FBGBroadwayG      24      145    0.165
Chris C            20      123    0.162
Alan M             18      116    0.155
Mike K             16      106    0.150
CMPLT              15      100    0.150

 

Edited by BroadwayG

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25 leagues.

3 Firsts

1 Second

 

 

Small profit, but a lot of fun.  Next year, I'll do 100x the # of leagues and make enough for a nice vacation!

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Congrats to all who turned a profit! :thumbup:

I mentioned in an earlier post that I plan to wait until after the draft and the schedule is released before drafting next year. It's painful to see a team I like end up with 3 QB's with the same bye. However, 3 of my 1st place teams came from the 10 that I drafted prior to the NFL draft & schedule release. Everyone is drafting with the same info, so I guess I should be OK with drafting a few early teams.

I'm taking $120 from the MFL account and putting it toward the Postseason Shootout. That will leave me with enough for a round number of 50 teams next year.

Thanks BroadwayG, Yotes1 and others who have provided info that will used in next year's drafting! It's much appreciated.

Looking forward to next year's MFL10's thread.

Edited by brun

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I have enjoyed reading all the summaries, so I will add mine as well:

20 leagues entered (14x$10, 6x$25).  Theoretical breakeven cost is ($140 + $150) $290, but actual cost was $260 due to a few free entries from last year. 

Results:  1st place x 4 (3 x $10 and 1 x $25) for $500 in winnings, plus 2nd place x1 (in a $25 league) for $50, for a total of $550 in winnings, plus an additional 2nd place in a $10 league, good for a free $10 entry next year. 

So, $260 cash outlay turned into $550 plus a free $10 league next year.

I split my drafts fairly evenly between preseason games, and there was no pattern to my winners (2 winning teams were drafted before any preseason games, 1 was drafted after the 2nd preseason game, 1 was drafted after the 3rd preseason game). 

I did find some interesting results when looking at my teams based on the draft slot.  3 of my 4 winning teams picked from the #7 slot.  The other winner was from #3.  My 4 teams that had the #1 pick finished 8th, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd.  My 2 teams that picked 12th finished 10th and 12th.  Small sample size, but interesting nonetheless (to me anyway).

 

 

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Where do you go on the site to see the overall leaderboard, stats, winning %, etc? I did MFL10s for the first time ever this year and had "beginners luck", winning one league and finishing second in the other. I did have some general strategies I followed (not taking QB too early unless I felt the value was good, focusing on WRs as opposed to other positions, trying to get an elite RB on each roster), but nothing revolutionary. I was also pretty methodical with each draft pick and rarely did auto-picks. I treated it as a real draft and I think some people treat it as a casual game or afterthought. It will be interesting to see how I fair doing 10 of these leagues this year! 

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I came out even with 12 leagues and 1 1st with 2 2nds. 

My best team ended up being one that I thought looked pretty terrible after the draft everywhere but RB. I got DJ at 1.09 and then Zeke at 2.04. I ended up filling in enough around them to make it work. 

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21 hours ago, RotoLibrarian said:

Where do you go on the site to see the overall leaderboard, stats, winning %, etc? I did MFL10s for the first time ever this year and had "beginners luck", winning one league and finishing second in the other. I did have some general strategies I followed (not taking QB too early unless I felt the value was good, focusing on WRs as opposed to other positions, trying to get an elite RB on each roster), but nothing revolutionary. I was also pretty methodical with each draft pick and rarely did auto-picks. I treated it as a real draft and I think some people treat it as a casual game or afterthought. It will be interesting to see how I fair doing 10 of these leagues this year! 

Congrats on your success. Now next year is all free!

As far as auto-picks is concerned. I do it more often than not. The only times I avoid it is when my picks are at the ends of the rounds, where I will still usually auto-pick my first, but want to see my result before selecting my second. With the slow drafts I see little reason to not auto-pick most of the time.

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Working on getting my MFL10 site configured and streamlined for 2017.  In the meantime I pooped out an article with some 2016 data here: www.ffpages.com

I'll be putting up individual position articles soon.

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Thanks for your efforts BroadwayG.

Assuming this year is like last. 2017 MFL10 drafts should be starting in a couple weeks!

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Yes, trying to get all the positionals up before the Super Bowl.  Quick preview for QB: 2QB is the only way to go.  I was miserably off in my assumptions last year.

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On 1/29/2017 at 6:14 PM, BroadwayG said:

Working on getting my MFL10 site configured and streamlined for 2017.  In the meantime I pooped out an article with some 2016 data here: www.ffpages.com

I'll be putting up individual position articles soon.

Outstanding working. Thank you!!!

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I'm not sure who proposed the 1 Def strategy last year, but that's a heck of a lot better investment than 3 Def. Cheers to you Mr. 1 Def Man! :suds:

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22 hours ago, BroadwayG said:

Put up some player data for 2014-2016 here for those that are interested: http://www.ffpages.com/mfl10data.html

Very nice. I have a dumb question though. What are Applied Score and Applied Ratio?

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1 minute ago, brun said:

Very nice. I have a dumb question though. What are Applied Score and Applied Ratio?

...and every other column?

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Just now, jabarony said:

...and every other column?

Well, in 2016, Aaron Rodgers played QB for the GBP, wasn't a rookie and had an ADP of 52.03. He scored 386.6 points, but on average he only applied 326.95 of those points to his team's score, or 85%. He averaged 169.2 points above what his team would have gotten had he pulled a Tony Romo or Teddy Bridgewater. He averaged 12 starts, and scored 27.22 points per start. His positional ADP was 2.02. His expected points based on draft capital was 128.51 and based on positional rank was 227.89. His actual performance provided a 198.44 point value compared to capital, and a 99.06 point value compared to his positional rank.

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13 minutes ago, brun said:

Very nice. I have a dumb question though. What are Applied Score and Applied Ratio?

Average points accumulated while starting and percentage his total points that were applied.

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1 hour ago, BroadwayG said:

I'm not sure who proposed the 1 Def strategy last year, but that's a heck of a lot better investment than 3 Def. Cheers to you Mr. 1 Def Man! :suds:

The winning percentage was higher with one defense than three? What do you attribute that to?

Does this vary depending on when you draft? One defense better in the spring when there is greater value in the late rounds with yet-to-be overhyped rookies/vets that changed teams/roles than in August?

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54 minutes ago, Fresh Prince of Bel Nor said:

The winning percentage was higher with one defense than three? What do you attribute that to?

Does this vary depending on when you draft? One defense better in the spring when there is greater value in the late rounds with yet-to-be overhyped rookies/vets that changed teams/roles than in August?

Don't get me wrong, I'm talking about return on investment, not winning percentage. 1Def definitely did not win at a higher rate than 3Def, but it is likely not the Def fault.

Just rough numbers (capital is based on a random flex player's points):

1 Def gets you ~130 points for 70 points of capital
2 Def - 180 points on 130 capital
3 Def - 205 points on 185 capital

Going from 1 to 2 gets you 50 actual points for 60 points of capital, which is a reasonable return, especially considering the zero likelihood of complete failure.

Going from 2 to 3 however, gets you 25 points for 55 capital, which is very poor, but also a very safe play.

 

Edited by BroadwayG

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No problem, I enjoy doing it. Sorry my labels are confusing. I thought it would be neat to dig a little deeper than the traditional winrate analysis.

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@BroadwayG 

What are your plans for the site this year?  I see you have some detailed strategy articles available now - are you planning to have the screen where it lists the player remaining given a specific league id?

Also, how did you get the data for the individual player scatter charters?  Did you download every draft and store that information, or is there a way through the API to get that information?

 

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Site is in beta testing this year. I added portfolio tracking and valuation using my article concepts so the available player list also displays your exposure and past ADP of each player. You can also view your current roster, see bye weeks and stacking opportunities. The plots show your picks in a different color.

There is also a drag/drop draft list manager that can copy/paste directly into MFL. So you can delete injured/unwanted players to save yourself from the autopick blues.

I also provide draft projections for every league ranking their draft and giving final score estimates.

Yes everything is done through the API.

Edited by BroadwayG

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