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Bernie Sanders HQ! *A decent human being. (5 Viewers)

humpback said:
Good posting (besides the "interesting" part).  

There are so many parts about this process that are just absurd.
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I remember the one caucus I went to when I turned 18. It was the 1988 election and we met at a house a few blocks away. There were maybe 8 people there. I was the youngest in attendance by about 40 years. There was a little discussion and general agreement on George H.W. Bush. When they asked for volunteers to be the delegates at the state convention, nobody immediately volunteered. An elderly couple said they would be willing to do it. Once we agreed that they could, they quietly informed us that they would be supporting Pat Robertson. 

Caucuses ####### suck.

 
NCCommish said:
I'll add Hillary should be worried by the win in Oklahoma. Considered a pretty conservative Democratic party there. The states Bernie won are much more like the states coming up. Bernie needed time and money. Raising 42 million in February shows he has the money and now he has some time to continue to push his message to people that still haven't heard it. Far from over.
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I love Sanders, but..

Clinton is way ahead in Michigan
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/

Clinton is way ahead in Florida
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/florida-democratic/

Clinton is way ahead in Illinois
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/illinois-democratic/

Clinton is comfortably ahead in North Carolina
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/north-carolina-democratic/

Clinton is generally ahead in Ohio
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/ohio-democratic/

 
cap'n grunge said:
Kinda dumb for Democrats to showcase the south early in its primary process given the fact that they typically get crushed in these red states in the general anyways. As others have said its all about momentum and media narrative. That process can either help propel a candidate forward or put up walls for them that are extremely hard to overcome. Add in the undemocratic super delegates and you have a pretty flawed process.
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Agree, heavy red states should be last in the primary.

 
Clayton Gray said:
I love Sanders, but..

Clinton is way ahead in Michigan
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/

Clinton is way ahead in Florida
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/florida-democratic/

Clinton is way ahead in Illinois
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/illinois-democratic/

Clinton is comfortably ahead in North Carolina
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/north-carolina-democratic/

Clinton is generally ahead in Ohio
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/ohio-democratic/
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She was up by more than 60 points nationally a few months ago. She was winning everything. Coronation on schedule. Now not so much. Things change.

 
NCCommish said:
She was up by more than 60 points nationally a few months ago. She was winning everything. Coronation on schedule. Now not so much. Things change.
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She wouldn't run sixty points ahead of an houseplant all through the race. There's a large portion of that difference that was simply near universal name recognition for Clinton while Bernie was a relative unknown. 

 
Yeah, I think Bill certainly did violate election law in MA with what he did, but at the same time I can't imagine what would be done about it other than hitting him in the media (which is unlikely to happen, or, really, stick around). Just another example for me of the Clinton's flouting of the law that applies to normal people. 

 
mcintyre1 said:
Yeah, I think Bill certainly did violate election law in MA with what he did, but at the same time I can't imagine what would be done about it other than hitting him in the media (which is unlikely to happen, or, really, stick around). Just another example for me of the Clinton's flouting of the law that applies to normal people. 
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He could be arrested.  Obviously that's not going to happen, but it's illegal.

 
NCCommish said:
She was up by more than 60 points nationally a few months ago. She was winning everything. Coronation on schedule. Now not so much. Things change.
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Not a few months ago, more like about roughly the first half of 2015. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary And that was at the time before Bernie declared and was stilled viewed as a socialist and not a Democrat by most Democrats. And the coronation talk was from the media and her critics - most of her supporters were a bit hesitant to use that label after what happened versus Obama in 2008 (although she was considered the presumptive nominee due to the perceived lack of serious opposition, particularly with Warren being unlikely to run).

 
Jackstraw said:
She wouldn't run sixty points ahead of an houseplant all through the race. There's a large portion of that difference that was simply near universal name recognition for Clinton while Bernie was a relative unknown. 





 
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Agreed. Cutting 50 points off a 60-point deficit is much easier than getting those last 10.

NCCommish said:
She was up by more than 60 points nationally a few months ago. She was winning everything. Coronation on schedule. Now not so much. Things change.
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Things are changing, but there are only two weeks before all of those states vote. Needs to happen soon.

 
pantagrapher said:
There's this (which is not really an example of my statement, I know)

But plenty of folks this morning blaming her for Bernie losing Massachusetts.
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She goes around endorsing dems right now that align with Sanders platform. She is not endorsing for political reasons, even though it goes against what she fights for. It's fair to point that out. Her op-ed in the New York Times a month ago, was like a secret endorsement, but she does not want to face the politics of going against the Clintons.

 
mcintyre1 said:
Yeah, I think Bill certainly did violate election law in MA with what he did, but at the same time I can't imagine what would be done about it other than hitting him in the media (which is unlikely to happen, or, really, stick around). Just another example for me of the Clinton's flouting of the law that applies to normal people. 
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https://www.change.org/p/massachusetts-attorney-general-maura-healey-arrest-prosecute-bill-clinton-john-f-mitchell-violation-of-ma-election-laws 

petition best way to hit him in the media

 
Time has always been Sanders friend when it comes to gathering support. No one is saying the poll numbers don't have to change for him to win, they do. If he only won 1 or 2 states, last night then it was absolutely over. That is why we are happy, if you supported Sanders since the beginning of the race, you were never afraid of an uphill climb. On we go...

 
Anthony Borbely said:
I think it's the exact opposite. Bernie is still trying to get his message out. Too many people still don't know who he is and what he's about. These things take time. 
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If my hick sister-in-law from Oklahoma who's been bad-mouthing Obama for years can get behind Sanders, I'd say everyone knows who he is by now.  :D

 
He desperately needs more visibility to get the enthusiasm going again. He needs to be seen more and his messages heard more than they have been the last few weeks.

I thought he'd do worse than he did yesterday, so it's not quitting time yet. The Nevada and Massachusetts  results still sting though. He really needed wins there, not close losses.

 
As for Warren I do wish she'd do whatever she is going to do so we could move on. But she didn't cost Bernie Massachusetts by not endorsing either candidate.

 
And the lead Clinton had was allegedly insurmountable until it wasn't. Now there was nothing to it apparently. She was going to crush him with money. Until he started out raising her. She was going to win every state until she didn't.

Like I said things change and I guess we'll see. 

 
NCCommish said:
As for Warren I do wish she'd do whatever she is going to do so we could move on. But she didn't cost Bernie Massachusetts by not endorsing either candidate.
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I think an early endorsement by Warren and her actively stumping for Bernie absolutely could have tilted things towards Bernie.  I technically agree she didn't cost Bernie Massachusetts because I don't feel she is under any obligation to endorse someone but it would have made a difference.

 
Anyone know if these numbers are right, i did math on my own.. Clinton won 58 percent of the pledged delegates so far and 25 percent of the pledged delegates have been awarded so far?

 
Gr00vus said:
He desperately needs more visibility to get the enthusiasm going again. He needs to be seen more and his messages heard more than they have been the last few weeks.

I thought he'd do worse than he did yesterday, so it's not quitting time yet. The Nevada and Massachusetts  results still sting though. He really needed wins there, not close losses.
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Is he still drawing thousands at events? 

So weird to feel the energy and momentum grind to a halt....as someone who is only following the race from a distance. Though I could be mistaken.

 
Gr00vus said:
He desperately needs more visibility to get the enthusiasm going again. He needs to be seen more and his messages heard more than they have been the last few weeks.

I thought he'd do worse than he did yesterday, so it's not quitting time yet. The Nevada and Massachusetts  results still sting though. He really needed wins there, not close losses.
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Going into Tuesday, I was seeing a lot of ads for Clinton. I saw only 2 for Bernie, both on Monday.

Seemed like Bernie did some punting in the South for super Tuesday. (I'm in Virginia)

 
bananafish said:
He's still drawing large crowds, that's not the problem. He's struggling to get any coverage with the current Trump-hysteria going on.

It's just a guess, but if he was getting half the coverage that Trump is the polls would probably be different.

It is what it is, he has to fight for coverage.
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He got a 5k and 8k crowd in texas on saturday. Also on Saturday there were a bunch of rallies across the country, wasn't covered on the news. Maybe if you lived in one of the cities, it made the local news.

 
elguapo07 said:
Almost time for Bernie to go away for good.
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Not even close. I expect him to run his campaign right through to the convention. Even if he the candidate doesn't have a chance, it's important his ideas continue to be forwarded for consideration. And his campaign has been about that as much as it's been about anything.

 
Could he still run as independent?  Not that he would, just curious if anyone knows how that works.

 
Gr00vus said:
Time enough for that after the convention. Let us pitch our little idealistic fit until then please.
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See this is what the DNC thinks. We are just children throwing a hissy. What they don't seem to get is this isn't going away. The people feel screwed over. That isn't going to change after 4 years of more of the same. This isn't a tantrum it's a warning.

 
NCCommish said:
See this is what the DNC thinks. We are just children throwing a hissy. What they don't seem to get is this isn't going away. The people feel screwed over. That isn't going to change after 4 years of more of the same. This isn't a tantrum it's a warning.
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It's going away.  The DNC is right, the faithful will fall in line for the establishment candidate to keep the status quo they want.  They'll toss the faithful a bone or two like gay marriage or more abortions to keep them from picking up the pitchforks and might even talk a nice game about climate change, but when it comes to the money they will make sure the gap only widens between the top and the bottom.  I suspect we may even get legalized weed if the establishment is in position to make more money off of it then they can by enforcing laws against it.

 
BassNBrew said:
It's going away.  The DNC is right, the faithful will fall in line for the establishment candidate to keep the status quo they want.  They'll toss the faithful a bone or two like gay marriage or more abortions to keep them from picking up the pitchforks and might even talk a nice game about climate change, but when it comes to the money they will make sure the gap only widens between the top and the bottom.  I suspect we may even get legalized weed if the establishment is in position to make more money off of it then they can by enforcing laws against it.
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No they really aren't. Hillary got 8% of new voters and got crushed amongst young voters. That's your clue right there this isn't going away.

 
NCCommish said:
Not really. It's his call to make one way or the other. If he did I'd support him. But I won't be mad when he doesn't.
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The time is right for some to pick up the torch.  Perot was so close a couple of decades ago.  If you could get 80% of the Bernie supporters and 80% of the Trump supporters on the same page someone could pull this off.

 
NCCommish said:
See this is what the DNC thinks. We are just children throwing a hissy. What they don't seem to get is this isn't going away. The people feel screwed over. That isn't going to change after 4 years of more of the same. This isn't a tantrum it's a warning.
Click to expand...
I asked this of Trump supporters, and I think it's similar on this side.  Believe me, I understand the frustration with the political status quo, but what's the end game?  

I know you've said that you won't, but it seems highly likely that Bernie and most of his supporters are going to back Hillary in the end, which just means business as usual, doesn't it?

 
NCCommish said:
No they really aren't. Hillary got 8% of new voters and got crushed amongst young voters. That's your clue right there this isn't going away.
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And she got some whooping % of the black voters which is a growing demo.  

Besides, the establishment can make more progress in 4 years than the progressives can in a decade.  It's like a snowball rolling down the mountain the rate they are controlling the wealth.

 
humpback said:
I asked this of Trump supporters, and I think it's similar on this side.  Believe me, I understand the frustration with the political status quo, but what's the end game?  

I know you've said that you won't, but it seems highly likely that Bernie and most of his supporters are going to back Hillary in the end, which just means business as usual, doesn't it?
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I think a lot of Bernie supporters will stay home. I won't because I care about more than the Presidency. But the ones that do vote for her and get more all in for Wall Street will be much harder to get a second time. 

And Liberals have already won. Just look at the polling and what young people are saying. It's just a question of when, not if, the country moves to the left.

 
BassNBrew said:
And she got some whooping % of the black voters which is a growing demo.  

Besides, the establishment can make more progress in 4 years than the progressives can in a decade.  It's like a snowball rolling down the mountain the rate they are controlling the wealth.
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Establishment plays small ball and does the minimum it thinks it can get away with. Incrementalism the true sign of privilege.

 
NCCommish said:
See this is what the DNC thinks. We are just children throwing a hissy. What they don't seem to get is this isn't going away. The people feel screwed over. That isn't going to change after 4 years of more of the same. This isn't a tantrum it's a warning.
Click to expand...
It is just like the appeal of Trump, only with bad ideas and anger instead of just anger.

 
BassNBrew said:
And she got some whooping % of the black voters which is a growing demo.  

Besides, the establishment can make more progress in 4 years than the progressives can in a decade.  It's like a snowball rolling down the mountain the rate they are controlling the wealth.
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Projected black voter growth is negligible compared to hispanics. From Wikipedia:


U.S. Census Population projections (2012)[59]

 


2015


2050


White Americans1

77.4%


70.8%


Non-Hispanic Whites


61.8%


46.6%


Black Americans2

13.2%


14.4%


Asian Americans2

5.3%


7.7%


Multiracial Americans2

2.6%


5.4%


Hispanics/Latinos (of any race)


17.8%


28.0%


1 Including Hispanics and Some other race
2 Including Hispanics

 
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