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CJ Prosise - RB - Notre Dame (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
It was the lowest rated OL unit in the entire NFC* last year. Russell is on pace for 27% less sacks while actually throwing 60 more attempts this year -- and has had a much worse run game to lean on sans Rawls and Lynch.
*edited for NFC, Colts were worse on the pass side then 'hawks last year.
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Do you have the data for hurries, hits, and are you considering QB play getting rid of the ball faster? Sacks are hardly definitive.
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BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
55 QB hits thru 9 games.
114 last year. Pace of 98 despite throwing 60 more times in 2016.
Much better.
114 last year. Pace of 98 despite throwing 60 more times in 2016.
Much better.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
No. But that's enough indicators to compare from '15 to '16.
Sacks. Hits. Poor RB play offset.
Sacks. Hits. Poor RB play offset.
I think there are way too many variables to make any conclusion.
Why don't we do this, what do you think Rawls is going to do behind this year's O-Line?
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Nothing yet. When I see him at 100% (or close to it) then that will be different.
Until he is 100% and in game-shape, probably a paltry 3.2 to 3.5 yards per carry. But more importantly not miss his assignments.
ftr* my history with the Seahawk backfield is unmatched over the past 4-5 years. And that's not BS, you can search it.
I'm not even sure what the debate is here anymore because that's pretty much my expectations... 8-13 touches, and much lower YPC than last season.
This year the Seahawks drafted Prosise despite having Rawls. Last year they signed Fred Jackson despite having Lynch. Seems pretty clear they like having both types of backs on the roster.
Last year the thunder guy got much more run than the lightning guy. And for the first 8 weeks this year too.
We'll see how things go from here, but thinking the split will lean Prosise flys in the face of recent Seahawks history.
Hooper31
Footballguy
Too true. It seems you two are arguing just to argue. I've fallen into that trap before as well.
When trying to determine who's getting the carries moving forward I would suggest taking a deeper look at the coaching staff and overlying team concept. They want to run the ball, win the time of possession, be physically dominant on both sides of the ball, and keep the defense on the sideline as much as possible. That hasn't been happening this year (TOP is a huge negative at this point). Which RB going forward is going to help them get back to this style of play? I believe that all signs eventually point back to Rawls. Sure, Prosise will play a role, but Rawls is the guy that they want to be their bell cow. Its why they also invested a pick in a guy like Collins as well. If Rawls was going to be unable to go they needed to take a chance on someone else that could fill that role (even though they still had Michael on the roster). Lastly, when examining their draft picks keep in mind that Prosise wasn't drafted to replace anyone on the current roster. They went into the draft with two RBs under contract. No NFL team is headed into training camp with only two RBs on the roster.
Agree with you, Rawls will be the top dog. Prosise is a nice change of pace but Seattle wants to be physically dominant and Prosise is not built to be that guy. Carroll loves Rawls style of running and sees Prosise as a specialized runner (see quote about Prosise below).
“I think this is a very, very unique player, and I love talking about him,” coach Pete Carroll said. “We were hoping we could get him because we have a very special role that we can put him in and then we can go from there. He’s going to do things that he’s really good at and then we’re going to expand his role as he can handle it. There’s no reason he can’t be a first-down back, too. We just know what we’re going to attempt to do with him on third down.”
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
Last year they had Lynch, one of the best running backs in the league. Prosise didn't even see the field until week 7 due to being a rookie and being injured pre season (IIRC) aka they didn't want to use him until they had to. Not saying that Prosise is going to have major control of the backfield but the situations are not comparable.
Lynch dressed for 7 games last year, and got double-digit carries in 5 of those. They spent the majority of the year with a different "thunder" guy.
Meanwhile the "lightning" guy, Fred Jackson, had 26 carries in 16 games.
Maybe Prosise will break the mold. It'd be the opposite of what Seattle has done for the last year and a half, though.
The Football Freak
Footballguy
I kind of agree. I'm also seeing a lot of talk that Prosise isn't built like an everydown back, but he's 5 pounds heavier than Rawls (220 to 215). Is it that he's fast and big is throwing people? Maybe people are referring to Rawl's center of gravity since he's shorter? I liked how Prosise ran, and he didn't seem shy about taking it up the gut.
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
He's a converted WR, which could be factoring into that. He's essentially the same build as David Johnson (6'1" 225)
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
I think we're just looking at this in two different ways. I see this as the Seahawks having a new weapon and shifting their offense given their current situation (o-line problems mainly). You see them going back to last year's game. Neither of us are "wrong" at this point. Prosise isn't Fred Jackson and Rawls isn't Lynch, for better or worse.
Hooper31
Footballguy
What exactly is the point of making such a definitive statement? It runs contrary to what Pete Carroll has been about for a very long time.
Fantasy football is all about choices without all the data. I think a lot of the debate is, given that you can only choose one of these 2 players to have RoS given the current information that you have, right now today. What would you choose?
Wednesday November 16th, pick one. We can check back end of season.
Wednesday November 16th, pick one. We can check back end of season.
The Football Freak
Footballguy
Good point. Maybe that's it. As far as I can see, he runs tough, has speed and solid hands and tries really hard. I want to see more, but I actually think he can be a good bellcow.
In non PPR, I'd roll the dice and say Rawls. In PPR, I'd probably stick with Prosise. But I'd also say Prosise seems to have a safe floor for either. How's that waffling for ya?
jedimindtricks
Footballguy
I basically said that exact thing in the very next sentence that you cut out. And in my previous post too.
I'm not sure this post could get anymore PRO Prosise.
"3rd round pick is a very high pick for a RB" Here is a list of 3rd round RBs in the last 5 years: Kenyan Drake, Prosise, Tevin Coleman, Duke Johnson, David Johnson, Matt Jones, Charles Sims, Tre Mason, Terrance West, Jerick McKinnon, Dri Archer, Knile Davis, Ronnie Hillman, and Bernard Pierce. Only 1 of them has locked down a starting job long term and proven to be good. 1 out of 13, not counting Prosise...
"David Johnson lite upside" He could just as likely be Charles Sims, Duke Johnson, Jerick McKinnon, Bilal Powell, or Jeremy Langford(also a former WR).
"Michael was released primarily because of Prosise being able to play 77% of the snaps against New England" Really? How do you know this? Are Pete and you boys? You do realize that Seattle also invested a 5th round pick in Alex Collins and a 7th round pick in RB Zac Brooks in the same draft as Prosise. If they felt so great about this David Johnson lite RB, why waste 2 more draft picks? It's possible Michael was cut because of his lack of production or he doesn't play ST or Rawls was coming back or an undisclosed injury/attitude/locker room issue with Michael or Prosise's performance. 1/5 chance, but you know the primary reason....
By the way Rawls had the 2nd highest YPC among rookie RBs in recent memory(minimum 100 carries). MJD 5.7, Adrian Peterson and Thomas Rawls 5.6.
While I think Prosise is a better pass catching threat. He's averaged 3 receptions over his 5 career NFL games. Prosise has seen more action the last 3 games and averaged 4 receptions over that span. How many receptions did Rawls average over the initial two games this season? 3.
"I'd bet on a 70-30 in favor of Prosise" Prosise has led the Seahawks in touches in only 1 game this season. But now he's going to take 70% of the teams touches from this point forward.
Like I said, not sure one could spin this more in a Prosise way. I think he takes more of the passing down work, but i'm not going so far as to claim him as David Johnson lite or 70% of Seattle's touches.
> but i'm not going so far as to claim him as David Johnson lite or 70% of Seattle's touches
I claimed neither.
Would take the time to respond to you but you're clearly just looking to pick a fight. Trying to exaggerate what I actually said so you can make a stronger point only serves to weaken your statement.
I claimed neither.
Would take the time to respond to you but you're clearly just looking to pick a fight. Trying to exaggerate what I actually said so you can make a stronger point only serves to weaken your statement.
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Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
You almost feel like Carrol's mind snapped after the Arizona 6-6 tie and decided the run game is a thing of the past. He convinced the GM to cut Michael saying "what do we need running backs for anymore". I know the stats may not back this up, and Prosise had 17 carries against the pats, but it really looked like the Seahawks had given up on the whole run game completely.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Thomas Rawls won't be eased back
Published Wed Nov 16 11:27:57 p.m. ET 2016
(USA Today Fantasy Sports) Seattle Seahawks RB Thomas Rawls (leg) is "going to play considerably" in Week 11 against the Philadelphia Eagles assuming he has no setbacks in practice this week, head coach Pete Carroll said Wednesday, Nov. 16.
Published Wed Nov 16 11:27:57 p.m. ET 2016
(USA Today Fantasy Sports) Seattle Seahawks RB Thomas Rawls (leg) is "going to play considerably" in Week 11 against the Philadelphia Eagles assuming he has no setbacks in practice this week, head coach Pete Carroll said Wednesday, Nov. 16.
mnmplayer
Footballguy
alot of PROsise optimism running a bit hot. It's no accident that cmike is gone the same week Rawls is coming back. No way did they clear a path getting rid of cmike for a rookie 3rd round pick with 26 career carries to carry the load. Sorry, but reality is going to set in pretty fast this week if we see a healthy Rawls out there. Anyone paying attention knows PC loves him some Rawls.Prosise will have value as the 3rd down back and spell occasionally. After watching him run it doesn't take a professional scout to see he can't offer what Rawls does in the running game. He got 77% of the snaps because they gave up on cmike, not because they think Prosise is worthy to take 70% of the snaps going forward. all imho.
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xrayveggin
Footballguy
I would go Prosise
He's significantly tougher than he's given credit for, with a combine build right between DJohnson and MForte. He's had 20 something NFL touches. He's not the first rookie to fail on his first 2 goal line runs in the NFL, and he showed a ability to squeeze out the extra 2-3 yards in the scrum using a combination of moderate power and moderate slipperiness. He's a player who offers more leverage for the offense, allowing Prosise 1 on 1 matchups against LBs in the passing game, or Prosise getting to run the ball against the nickel package if the defense decides to cover him with a safety. We know Prosise is currently healthy and productive and has the support of the coaches and his teammates. Russell Wilson is on fire and Prosise has just earned his confidence (Prosise took a big hit to catch that poor sideline throw by Wilson). Finally, there is a not insignificant chance that Rawls looks rusty again when he comes back, with inconsistent production for the first few weeks. ROS, I take Prosise. For the playoff run (wk 14-16 iml), I might slightly favor Rawls.
Gandalf
Footballguy
Prosise also is still learning he RB craft. I think he's capable of improving as a running back even from here
It's no accident that cmike is gone the same week Rawls is coming back
Prosise will have value as the 3rd down back and spell occasionally. After watching him run it doesn't take a professional scout to see he can't offer what Rawls does in the running game. He got 77% of the snaps because they gave up on cmike, not because they think Prosise is worthy to take 70% of the snaps going forward. all imho.
The snap count has been consistently trending up for Prosise vs Michael (25%, 43%, 55%, and 77%). Even if Rawls was fully healthy this week, it makes zero sense to just dump Michael straight up given Rawls' injury history, as he's the direct replacement for Rawls. Unless, they believed that Prosise was more than capable of handling every down duties, which they do have every reason to believe. A healthy Rawls is icing on the cake and adds another dimension to the run game.
No way did they clear a path getting rid of cmike for a rookie 3rd round pick with 26 career carries to carry the load
GMs spend 3rd round picks expecting a starting caliber player, that is the intention when you draft anyone in the 3rd round. It may not pan out that way, but what you should take away is that Seattle intended for this pick to be a guy who can start in the NFL. In this case, draft day expectations were actually met, as we all saw on Sunday Night. He had no problem with a big workload and leading the team in rushing and receiving, and looked great doing it.
Anyone paying attention knows PC loves him some Rawls.
I paid attention and avoided Rawls in re-draft completely. Did you, or any other Rawls defenders here?
After watching him run it doesn't take a professional scout to see he can't offer what Rawls does in the running game.
And Rawls will get his chances to run. But Prosise is a good enough runner, and what looks to be an elite pass catcher for a RB, and that gives after-the-huddle versatility that Rawls does not offer.
Prosise will have value as the 3rd down back and spell occasionally
Passing down back, not 3rd down back. That's a huge difference in number of snaps. There will be more passing downs than rushing downs in Seattle, and Prosise will get a decent portion of rushing attempts too. If you believe Prosise the superior passing down back and will get a non-zero result for rushing plays, it's not too hard to believe that it will account for 70% of the snaps.
Sorry, but reality is going to set in pretty fast this week if we see a healthy Rawls out there
Eh, Rawls was by far the easiest bust prediction this season. The fact nobody saw him running at full speed up until drafts, the fact that they drafted Prosise and Collins and brought in Michael. The reality for me was to avoid Rawls like the plague. I'm sorry for anyone who had to hold onto him this long, but I really think there's a lot of owners suffering from sunk cost fallacy here.
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
ESPN's Chris Mortensen reports C.J. Prosise will remain the Seahawks' starting running back "for the immediate future."
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
That's from ESPN this morning, it's basically the 3 main points I've tried to illustrate.
- Michael's release had to do with CJ's emergence.
- Using a 3rd round pick is a big deal.
- CJ makes Seattle dangerous, b/c of his versatility.
whole-show
Footballguy
Wasn't CMike the starter last Sunday? I've learned to ignore when a coach says so and so is the starting rb. Not saying Prosise won't lead the backfield for most of the game and actually think he will with Rawls just coming back, but I just take it with a grain of salt when a coach says that.
I don't think the coach committed to a starter one way or another. This was a mid-week observation piece by ESPN on the SEA backfield. I don't even think the starter matters. I think that snap counts will matter as it affects potential usage on any given play. If you are not on the field, you don't have the opportunity to score fantasy points through an audible, for instance.
For RBs, you generally want them around 50% snap count to feel even remotely comfortable in any standard sized league (10-12 man), especially if they are not the pass catching type.
My guess is that Rawls will be eased in on a snap count, but I just don't see this Prosise thing going away. He's clearly carved out a major role with his performance on most of the important downs and likely the hurry up offense. This severely limits Rawls' upside, unless everyone believes he's going to go off for 5.5+ ypc. I think if you really objectively look at it, he's just a guy trying to get his feet underneath him again, and that expectation for RoS is going to be unrealistic. Coupled with the rise of Prosise and GB, LA, ARI to close out the year, I don't really know if Rawls is going to be relevant enough in fantasy this season.
Franknbeans
Footballguy
I get to choose between him and Doug Martin.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
This is Wilson's show to create. They'll sprinkle in enough runs to try and keep the defense honest but even if they don't they are OK with it. Prosise is a real threat in the passing game but is OK enough as a runner to keep defenses guessing. I think he plays a lot. They don't want Rawls in there to telegraph a run and Prosise in there just on passing downs.. If game script calls to pound it doesn't look like Prosise is the runner to do that
Hooper31
Footballguy
This is so wrong it hurts to read it. If you really believe this, you have no idea how Carroll and company do things in Seattle. Playing football for the Seahawks is an absolute meritocracy. Its why so many starters on this team were undrafted free agents.
Sure, Prosise might blow up and have a great season, but as far as his playing time goes it has nothing at all to do with his draft position.
NickyHatton
Footballguy
Quote from Bevell yesterday (link).
“We’ve got to wait and see how Thomas does the rest of the week," said Seahawks offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell. "He’s progressing well. He looked sharp out here in practice and he’s full-go every snap that he’s out here. He’s in great shape. … But we’re excited if we get him all the way to the end of the week, and we know the tenacity that he brings in the run game. That’s something that we really like, something that we’re hoping that we get back to, and the toughness mentality that he brings, the way he finishes runs, hard to bring down. Those are all things that we’re looking forward to having.”
I think the amount of work Prosise see's the rest of this season is dependent on whether Rawls comes back and runs like he did last year. Probably not gonna know anyway until Sunday.
“We’ve got to wait and see how Thomas does the rest of the week," said Seahawks offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell. "He’s progressing well. He looked sharp out here in practice and he’s full-go every snap that he’s out here. He’s in great shape. … But we’re excited if we get him all the way to the end of the week, and we know the tenacity that he brings in the run game. That’s something that we really like, something that we’re hoping that we get back to, and the toughness mentality that he brings, the way he finishes runs, hard to bring down. Those are all things that we’re looking forward to having.”
I think the amount of work Prosise see's the rest of this season is dependent on whether Rawls comes back and runs like he did last year. Probably not gonna know anyway until Sunday.
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And that's not what I'm suggesting. All teams choose their starters based on meritocracy. If that is your statement then you and I have literally no disagreements at all.
What I said is simply that they drafted with an idea in mind, and that idea manifested itself in a big way last Sunday. If you want to actually disagree with me without using a strawman argument, then you need to say this -> "Seattle doesn't value their 3rd round pick, and drafts without positional need or game strategy in mind."
Otherwise, we have zero disagreements.
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Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
That's pretty much true for any team. The draft-stock thing is something that is extremely overplayed by fans. Sure, it might get you an edge on the deptch chart on day one of OTAs, but that changes REAL quick.
I get what you're saying and agree that the Seahawks don't want to pigeon-hole their players to a defined role. I think Rawls may be OK enough in the passing game to likewise keep the defenses guessing, and play-action could be a real weapon with him on the field. Each player has their strengths and Seattle should be the better for it. Hopefully both can stay healthy.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Actually it was just about 2 weeks ago when Carrol said they were keeping the position manned until Rawls gets back at 100% (which he said he wasnt at) and it would be his.
