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Top 10-20 prospects? (1 Viewer)

Gottabesweet

Gottabesweet

Footballguy
In a 20 player keeper where I'm mostly set, we are drafting ten rounds where I plan on loading up on prospects as we are turning dynasty.  It's a points league where we keep 10 this year mandatory, 20 maximum.  30 round draft. Next year we will draft 6 rounds to bring us to 36.  What top draft picks should I target prospect wise ?  12 team league. 

Im keeping

J. Aubrey, Altuve, Machado, Russell, Rendon, Springer, Buxton, Betts, Puig, Sano, Sale, Carrasco, Matz, Rodon, Harvey, Strasburg, J Fernandez, Bumgardner, Giles 

Thinking about Lucroy or Teheran or going with 19 keepers to have a shot at a prospect. 

 
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I don't know what your starting lineup and DL rules are but 30 man rosters this year are going to keep you from going too prospect heavy.  If you plan to compete and have the usual collection of injuries, I doubt you'll be able to carry more than 2 or 3 minor leaguers.

My dynasty league experience all comes from one league but I think there's a tendency to overvalue youth in the format.  You look pretty well set for young keeper talent already.  If productive veterans fall to you in the draft, I would grab them and set your team up for the short term.

 
Eephus said:
I don't know what your starting lineup and DL rules are but 30 man rosters this year are going to keep you from going too prospect heavy.  If you plan to compete and have the usual collection of injuries, I doubt you'll be able to carry more than 2 or 3 minor leaguers.

My dynasty league experience all comes from one league but I think there's a tendency to overvalue youth in the format.  You look pretty well set for young keeper talent already.  If productive veterans fall to you in the draft, I would grab them and set your team up for the short term.
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4 DL spots

im set at pitching, the only starting spots I need are C, CI, RP.  We have 10 bench spots so, planned on grabbing 5 high level prospects. Is there a list that is recommended?  I don't want to miss out on the next Bryant call up etc. 

 
It's a different format, but I'm in a 30 player keeper league too. Everyone uses too many roster spots on minor leaguer's. I use two max and often times none at all. Usually when I have minor leaguer's they're used via trade because everyone else over values prospects.

cliff notes - this year > future years, but that's not how most view it in his format.

 
If you are in a 30 player keeper league and aren't trying to roster guys like Sano, Seager, Correa, and Lindor, you're a #######. 

 
Gottabesweet said:
??

I own Sano, the other three are taken. I'm trying to draft a bunch of prospects that'll be this years version of them. 
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I was talking to Mac32, the worst fantasy advice giver on the innerwebs.  

You have the right approach, try holding a few top 20-30 prospects hoping they advance and turn profit.  It's preferable to have guys with a window to the majors that is under three years, but with guys like Moncada and Rodgers for example you can wait a little longer if necessary.

I'm in a 23 deep keeper and I took Moncada 3rd overall last year in hopes he'll play by next year.  Prospects are only overrated if you either hold too many, or don't hold the right mix.  2-4 in a league that deep is acceptable if not a necessity.   

 
Doctor Detroit said:
I was talking to Mac32, the worst fantasy advice giver on the innerwebs.  

You have the right approach, try holding a few top 20-30 prospects hoping they advance and turn profit.  It's preferable to have guys with a window to the majors that is under three years, but with guys like Moncada and Rodgers for example you can wait a little longer if necessary.

I'm in a 23 deep keeper and I took Moncada 3rd overall last year in hopes he'll play by next year.  Prospects are only overrated if you either hold too many, or don't hold the right mix.  2-4 in a league that deep is acceptable if not a necessity.   
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Excellent. Do you have a go to list?

I have 19 keepers. Do I keep Lucroy to secure catcher.  Or throw him back as I'll be jumping 2-3 teams that are keeping 20guys. 

We must keep 10. Max up to 20

 
Gottabesweet said:
Excellent. Do you have a go to list?

I have 19 keepers. Do I keep Lucroy to secure catcher.  Or throw him back as I'll be jumping 2-3 teams that are keeping 20guys. 

We must keep 10. Max up to 20
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i probably would keep Lucroy in a format with so many keepers.  I'm in a keep 9-12 league and I always keep the max, but if you had guys with 200 ADPs then maybe not. 

I don't have a go-to list, I use every source out there and also follow the minors.  I am close to a AA Eastern League team, so I try to get out there a few times a month to watch different prospects.  I sit right behind the plate and talk to the scouts, because I'm a :nerd:   I do the same thing when I go up to watch Midwestern League games when I'm at my house in Michigan. 

 
For reference sake I just checked out my recently completed keeper auction to check on a couple of prices

Mazara - $12

Moncada - $13

This is the same price range as Hunter Pence, Cole Hamels, and Albert Pujols. It's just one league, and a little different than your league, but it's worth noting. Prospects are great in this format. If you get them early enough to get them cheap. Different league, but I've been sitting on Mazara for like 3 or 4 years - got him off waivers. If you're trying to get the top guys now then you will have to pay a premium. Personally, I wouldn't plan on targeting any of the top guys. If one or some of them slip beyond plus contributors this year then they're worth a dice roll. 

 
Everybody in your league is aware of the top prospects and will overpay for them this year.  To succeed long term in a dynasty you have to be able to spot the prospects who will rise to the top in the years to come.  There's foolproof formula but it's important to distinguish prospects with fantasy skills that will translate to the MLB level from the guys who will be better in real life.  I like OF with power & speed and MI with one or the other.  I pay as much attention to MiLB SB% as the number of SB and probably place too much importance on power hitters' SO%.  I don't bother with anything but the top tier pitchers and even then TINSTAAPP.

 
Yeah that's the rub.  It depends on the size of the league but finding $1 guys who can be $20+ guys in two or three years is the key.  I've drafted/acquired Rizzo, Arenado, Correa, Sano, Buxton, and Mazara a year before they were on anyone's radar, or at least a year before people would realize they had more than just a $1 value. In a five year keeper all of them worked out except Buxton who is now in year 4, without having produced anything.  So that is dead bench space for 3 years which is at least one year too many.

Since his league is switching over now there is some opportunity to grab some guys in the top 100 lists that won't necessarily be there next year.  In the official FBG Dynasty League, about 85 of the top 100 Baseball America prospects are rostered.   That's a 37 deep roster though with 13 teams.  But I picked Blake Snell up last year for example, then traded him for Corey Dickerson.  So opportunities exist every single year to grab rising stars, you just have to be willing to put in the time. 

 
So I kept 20 players, most kept about 15 players.  Likely 50 draft picks until I pick in round 21.

I pulled up this prospect list -  http://fantasyassembly.com/2016/03/08/2016-top-100-prospects/

Currently the only players on here that are kept on a roster are:

Seager (1st overall)

Buxton (2) (My team)

Urias (4)

Glasnow (8)

Matz (10)  (My team)

Gallo (12)

3 teams have those 6 players.

I doubt I'll have a shot at Giolito, Moncada, but it looks like Mazara, Brinson, Crawford, Reyes, Zimmer, Rodgers, Berrios, I could pluck a couple.

I figure to nab as many top 40 prospects on this list I can.

 
Conflicted here.  Can't turn down the top difference makers especially hitters, but I'm mostly on the side of this format not being deep enough to carry prospects.  I think it'd have to be more like the top 20 for me.  

 
Next season we draft 6 rounds to bring us up to 36.

Currently have 20 on my roster, set at pitcher.  Need one relief pitcher, and C/I to fill out my starting roster.  Depth on my pitching bench is there.

I have about 9 bench spots to play with probably using 4 on 2016 contributors and then 5 prospects (hopefully 3 that will help this year)

Even if I go by the top 20 on this list.

Giolito, Moncada, Mazara, Brinson, Crawford, Reyes, Zimmer, Rodgers, Devers, Berrios, Williams, Meadows, Reed, Swanson, Barreto, Bregman, T. Anderson,Judge, Snell, De Leon, Turner.

I should be able to get 2-3 of them if not more.  I have a feeling only 2-4 guys will even attempt to grab a few prospects.

 
Another thing - you said it's a points league. Scoring system can make a big difference in which prospects you want.

For example Jorge Mateo is a huge prospect in roto formats because of the massive stolen base upside, but might not even be worth rostering in your league.

Same for pitching - whether you want a guy with big strikeout upside but some risk like Reyes or a more polished prospect like Berrios probably depends on how heavily Ks are weighted.

 
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Spartans Rule said:
Another thing - you said it's a points league. Scoring system can make a big difference in which prospects you want.

For example Jorge Mateo is a huge prospect in roto formats because of the massive stolen base upside, but might not even be worth rostering in your league.

Same for pitching - whether you want a guy with big strikeout upside but some risk like Reyes or a more polished prospect like Berrios probably depends on how heavily Ks are weighted.
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Very good point,  Yes pitching is heavily weighted.   The top 5 or so pitchers - Arietta, 909 points last year,  Kershaw 885,  Grienke 834, Scherzer 808,  - then 9 more from 640-797.

Archer 659 with his 12-13 record and a lot of K's - Kluber 623 - So the K's helped them.

Batting - Harper (673) , Donaldson, Goldy, Bautista, Trout (625) , Rizzo, Arenado, Pollock, Votto, Macado (600)

Dee Gordon and his steals had 500 points for what its worth.

Blackmon 542

 
Bobcat10 said:
I start here because I like the matrix format and it's sortable...and it's free.  

http://www.scoutingbook.com/prospects/matrix

Then I'll link to other sites from here and read different scouting reports, look at organization top 10's, etc:

http://fantasyrundown.com/2016-mlb-prospect-rankings/
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The Scouting Book list is a great resource but it's oriented towards real baseball rather than fantasy.  That doesn't matter too much for the top prospects but when you get down a tier or two, there are single category contributors who rise and jack-of-all-trades who fall a bit. 

 
Thanks for the help.

So in a points league with no rush for playing time- how would you rank the top 10 prospects (excluding Seager, Buxton, Glasnow, Urias,Gallo, Matz)

Giolito

Moncada

Turner

Swanson

Arcia

Reyes

Mazara

Reed

Crawford

Rodgers

De Leon

Berrios

anyone missing -

 
Eephus said:
The Scouting Book list is a great resource but it's oriented towards real baseball rather than fantasy.  That doesn't matter too much for the top prospects but when you get down a tier or two, there are single category contributors who rise and jack-of-all-trades who fall a bit. 
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Do you have a free matrix site that lists as many as 5-6 publications geared towards fantasy?

Just for informational purposes, here is Scouting Book's disclaimer:

Scouting Book's Combine list is produced from (at last count) thirty-three differently-weighted inputs, including the ranking lists of some of the other publications shown here. We also factor-in purely statistical projections, our own observations and analyses, and calculations and scouting reports from our own sources and other external sources that cannot be displayed in top-100 overall format. We favor hitting ability over fielding for position players, and we consider organizational opportunity.
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A must read is Fangraphs, although they are always slow as heck to post theirs as they go by team.  Still missing 10 or so right now.  

What other site is "must read"?

 
Bobcat10 said:
Do you have a free matrix site that lists as many as 5-6 publications geared towards fantasy?

Just for informational purposes, here is Scouting Book's disclaimer:

A must read is Fangraphs, although they are always slow as heck to post theirs as they go by team.  Still missing 10 or so right now.  

What other site is "must read"?
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Drafting tonight - Not many people play points leagues so it'll be hard to figure out what batters are valuable.

I have a feeling Giolito, Moncada, Turner and maybe Arcia will be the first 4 to be drafted, before I pick in the 21st round.

I'm thinking a good 5 player haul for me would be  - Swanson, Mazara, Reed, Crawford, Rodgers/Berrios

 
That's certainly a haul if you get those 5.  Most of them are keepers in my league.

I'm certainly no expert, but I took Benintendi in my points league keeper on Sunday over every available prospect (all June '15 draftees and any international '15 signee, and anyone else that wasn't kept).  Byung Ho Park did go before him but he's not really a prospect in the sense we are talking.  Maeda went the next pick, Swanson went 20 picks after that.  Next prospect was Rodgers and I grabbed him 45 picks after I took Benintendi.  I arguably got out of the draft with the top two hitting prospects and didn't really feel like I reached for them (I had 3 extra picks though in the first 6 rounds that helped balance everything out).

I like Devers alot also for a guy not on your list.

 
Bobcat10 said:
That's certainly a haul if you get those 5.  Most of them are keepers in my league.

I'm certainly no expert, but I took Benintendi in my points league keeper on Sunday over every available prospect (all June '15 draftees and any international '15 signee, and anyone else that wasn't kept).  Byung Ho Park did go before him but he's not really a prospect in the sense we are talking.  Maeda went the next pick, Swanson went 20 picks after that.  Next prospect was Rodgers and I grabbed him 45 picks after I took Benintendi.  I arguably got out of the draft with the top two hitting prospects and didn't really feel like I reached for them (I had 3 extra picks though in the first 6 rounds that helped balance everything out).

I like Devers alot also for a guy not on your list.
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Thank You - newer to this format so really appreciate the prospect talk.   I'll let you guys know what I end up doing tonight.  I might just try and grab as many top 30 prospects as possible and If I end up with using all 10 draft picks on prospects then so be it - I'll have trade bait and enough pitching power to still try and win this year. 

Next year we go from 30 to 36 roster spots.

Lineup currently

C - Lucroy

1B - Abreu

2B - Altuve

3B - Machado

SS - A. Russell

1B/3B - A. Rendon

2B/3B - (EMPTY)

OF - Betts

OF - Buxton

OF - Springer

UTIL - Sano

UTIL - Puig

Pitching - 9 starts a week (6 SP spots, 2RP spots)

Strasburg, Fernandez, Harvey, Sale, Bumgardner, Carrasco, Matz, Rodon,

RP Giles

 
The Dynasty Guru is a pretty useful resource.

It focuses more on rankings and overall dynasty strategy then in-depth player analysis, and you have to consider how your format would affect their ranking lists. But for figuring out how to value top prospects vs. established players it makes a nice starting point.

 
Just finished, drafted all prospects.  Will fill in the pieces later.  I could use a couple guys at CI MI if they make the bigs fast.

The following were already kept: pre draft - Seager, Buxton (me), Glasnow, Urias, Gallo, Matz (me)

Between rounds 15-30 the following was the order of prospects drafted.  Did I miss anyone or do you like anyone more than someone I kept?  I tried to target a mix of 2016, 2017 and 2018 ETA's

1. Giolito

2. Crawford

3. Kenta Maeda

4. AJ Reed

5. Moncada (me) (everyone prior was drafted before my first pick round (21)

6. Orlando Arcia (me) (22)

7. Jose Berrios

8. Aaron Judge

9. Dansby Swanson (me) (23)

10. Trea Turner

11. Nomar Mazura (me) (24)

12  Tallion

13. Brendan Rodgers (me) (25)

14.  Blake Snell (me) (26)

15.  Andrew Benintendi (me) (27)

16. Alex Reyes (me) (28)

17. T. Story (me) (29)

18. J. Bell

19. H. Olivera

20. Bundy

21. De Leon (me) (30)

 
You done good.  The challenge is to keep them all on your roster until they're ready.  The one pick that stands out is Judge who I think went way too early.  His power hasn't matched his size yet and his lack of defensive position means he'll have to hit a ton to stay in the lineup. I could see him ending up like CJ Cron who is decent but unspectacular.

I would have probably picked Trea Turner over Swanson.  Turner is at least a year closer to the big leagues and I think his speed will have fantasy value.  Swanson has a high floor but I don't see him excelling in any fantasy categories.  But a MI who provides 15/10 out of the middle of the order is a good thing to have.

 
Well you're definitely loaded.

I understand the roster size is increasing to 36 next season, does that mean the keepers are increasing to max of 30?  

Get Devers on speed dial in case Story flames out early.  Keep a close eye on Brinson.  Nick Williams may impact sooner than later also.

I can't believe picks 8/12/18-20....not like those guys are out of the top 100, or even top 50, but they are still questionable picks with who was available.

 
Well you're definitely loaded.

I understand the roster size is increasing to 36 next season, does that mean the keepers are increasing to max of 30?  

Get Devers on speed dial in case Story flames out early.  Keep a close eye on Brinson.  Nick Williams may impact sooner than later also.

I can't believe picks 8/12/18-20....not like those guys are out of the top 100, or even top 50, but they are still questionable picks with who was available.

 
Bobcat10 said:
Well you're definitely loaded.

I understand the roster size is increasing to 36 next season, does that mean the keepers are increasing to max of 30?  

Get Devers on speed dial in case Story flames out early.  Keep a close eye on Brinson.  Nick Williams may impact sooner than later also.

I can't believe picks 8/12/18-20....not like those guys are out of the top 100, or even top 50, but they are still questionable picks with who was available.
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Yes we will be keeping everyone, already seeing its hard to swing a deal and keep all these prospects on the bench.

I'm thinking of offering Carrasco and Lucroy for Degrom and then picking up Swihart.

 
What is your plan for dealing with injuries/ineffectiveness?  With that roster the latter shouldn't much of a concern, but the former will.  No one likes to use their depth, but it's a necessary evil in-season.  If I'm reading this right you're short a starter and have no backup bats.  That's going to be difficult to manage in-season.

I think you can afford to drop De Leon and Reyes.  Apparently your leaguemates don't value prospects, so I think there's better use for that roster space.  If there's one thing you will always be able to find it's young pitching.  If you're going to keep one I prefer Snell because he has a greater sample in the minors and he has shown improvement as he has increased levels (declining BB rate) that the others have not yet.  Doesn't hurt that he's in an organization that historically develops pitching well too.

You've set yourself up for the long run, but this roster is also built to win now.  Get some insurance bats now then look for prospects towards the end of the season to replace the bench depth you no longer need.

 
Correct- I don't have a 2nd RP - as I have De Leon in that slot.  Nothing is available and they don't score much - so likely would want to find a good middle relief pitcher to score some innings throughout the week.

I Have Story/Arcia starting now as well hoping one makes it.  - I hate how ESPN won't let me stash Reyes on the DL while he's suspended.

Free agents - http://games.espn.go.com/flb/freeagency?leagueId=24072&teamId=1&seasonId=2016

Injuries at least allows me to put someone on the DL (4 slots) and add someone that's getting playing time.

It's tough for me as I always want to get the best player in any trade but maybe I should look to trade Carrasco for like Carolos Martinez or Wacha and a bat

 
I'd rather have Gomes than Swihart if you made that deal above.  I don't know why you want to try to trade a pitcher to get another pitcher though.  Move one of your arms for an equal bat 1 for 1 if you can.  There's some decent FA pitching options available, and as mentioned above, you can afford to lose one (or two) of the minor league pitchers you drafted.  Based on the draft, the league isn't going to pick the dropped player up, and if they do that's fine there are similar prospects available.  At some point you should be able to target a few bad teams, move a top prospect or two to them, for whatever you need to solidify your run this year.

 
Went overboard on the prospects, IMO.  I like Moncada and Arcia as much as the next guy, but Jonathan Schoop could have been had with either of those picks.  He's only 24, in the bigs and could score you points right now in your vacant MI spot.

 
4 DL spots and daily transactions helps, but what if you have a guy that is injured but not DL eligible?  It happens often throughout the season, especially with good players because managers don't want to DL a star (and you have a lot of them) if they may only be out for a few days to a week.  

Your best bet for now is probably to stream the last RP with starters who qualify as RP and drop De Leon.  Maybe start the week with a good middle reliever, but if you are falling behind and need to gamble later in the week and a guy like Finnegan has a game against Philly then add him and throw him in there.  Use Reyes' roster spot on a bench bat you have no attachments to.  A 2nd catcher would be a good start because you can swing him in when Lucroy is off (I agree re Gomes > Swihart).  When someone else gets dinged plan to toss him back to the pool though.

It isn't a concern right now, but if Story doesn't get the job/gets benched a/o Buxton is banished to the 9 hole/bench then you may need to purge some more prospects to replace them too.  Also some unknowns surrounding Russell and Puig but I'm less concerned about them than most.

 
MAC_32 said:
4 DL spots and daily transactions helps, but what if you have a guy that is injured but not DL eligible?  It happens often throughout the season, especially with good players because managers don't want to DL a star (and you have a lot of them) if they may only be out for a few days to a week.  

Your best bet for now is probably to stream the last RP with starters who qualify as RP and drop De Leon.  Maybe start the week with a good middle reliever, but if you are falling behind and need to gamble later in the week and a guy like Finnegan has a game against Philly then add him and throw him in there.  Use Reyes' roster spot on a bench bat you have no attachments to.  A 2nd catcher would be a good start because you can swing him in when Lucroy is off (I agree re Gomes > Swihart).  When someone else gets dinged plan to toss him back to the pool though.

It isn't a concern right now, but if Story doesn't get the job/gets benched a/o Buxton is banished to the 9 hole/bench then you may need to purge some more prospects to replace them too.  Also some unknowns surrounding Russell and Puig but I'm less concerned about them than most.
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I can't start a starting pitcher in the RP spot - it will then count as one of my weekly 9 starts.

I hear everything your saying and will see what I can swing.  You think my pitching will be fine if I deal Carrasco for a bat and dump De Leon.

I'd need to get 9 pitching starts a week out of  Sale, Strasburg, Fernandez, Matz, Rodon, Bumgardner, Harvey - until Snell comes up.

Just tried De Leon and Reyes for Trea Turner got declined.

 
Missed the 9 start max, so yeah the RP plan wouldn't work.  Vizcaino has a good March and Grilli's just getting back, so he may be the best place to start with that 2nd RP.  I'm real tempted by Strickland though.

I wouldn't trade Carrasco unless I got an equal or better bat in return.  I think you're much better off short and long term to dump prospect(s) to fill any holes.  If you get the right trade then by all means move an arm for a bat, but don't move a core arm just to fill a hole.  Even if you have to unload more of them than you want your team is still setup to dominate the future.  You're also trying to win now though.

 
MAC_32 said:
Missed the 9 start max, so yeah the RP plan wouldn't work.  Vizcaino has a good March and Grilli's just getting back, so he may be the best place to start with that 2nd RP.  I'm real tempted by Strickland though.

I wouldn't trade Carrasco unless I got an equal or better bat in return.  I think you're much better off short and long term to dump prospect(s) to fill any holes.  If you get the right trade then by all means move an arm for a bat, but don't move a core arm just to fill a hole.  Even if you have to unload more of them than you want your team is still setup to dominate the future.  You're also trying to win now though.
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I have potentially Marte for Carrasco

and JD Martinez and Dee Gordon for Carrasco and De Leon offered.

While I'm not the best at gauging values for Pitchers for Bats.  This league is just a bunch of us from that have been friends after HS for 10-15 years.  So I'd guess half the league is FBG worthy.

 
Was just told the only way I'll get Syndergaard is if I include Bumgardner.

Bumgardner and De Leon for Syndergaard and Pollock -   "give me time to think" he says.

 
Pitchers generally score higher.   (Last Years Stats)

10 batters scored between 600-675 last season.

23 batters 500-600

8  pitchers scored 710-910 points

11 pitchers scored 600-700 points

18 pitchers scored 500-600

 
Ben Carsley's Top 101 Dynasty Prospects lists is up for free on Baseball Prospectus

It's a pretty good list that's tilted toward fantasy production.  He's more bearish on 2015 draft picks than most which makes sense for a list like this but not so much in a deep league where you have to be more aggressive with picking up unproven talent.

Steve Gardner's Top 30 list on USA Today is more typical than Carsley's.

 
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