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Eephus

Project or Die: Trevor Story - The Dies Have It

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Fairy tale story or hard luck story

Steamer .250/.308/.420  w/ 9 HR & 8 SB in 332 PAs
ZiPS .244/.308/.441  w/ 18 HR & 17 SB in 543 PAs

How far will you reach?

Edited by Eephus

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The extremely low ground-ball rate mixed with the thin air of Colorado is certainly appealing. I say Jose never plays again for the Rox again, and Story sticks and gets plenty of ABs.

Low average / OBP with 22HR and 17SB  

 

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I'll be the skeptic.  I'm scared off by his MiLB SO% and I think he'll struggle once he faces real MLB pitching.  His hot spring and the Coors Field factor will prompt other owners to spend more or draft earlier than I'm prepared to do.

He has 20/20 upside but there's huge downside in having to cobble together MI production because Story is in AAA.

.210/.290/.420 w/ 6 HR and 10 SB in limited playing time.

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53 minutes ago, Eephus said:

I'll be the skeptic.  I'm scared off by his MiLB SO% and I think he'll struggle once he faces real MLB pitching.  His hot spring and the Coors Field factor will prompt other owners to spend more or draft earlier than I'm prepared to do.

He has 20/20 upside but there's huge downside in having to cobble together MI production because Story is in AAA.

.210/.290/.420 w/ 6 HR and 10 SB in limited playing time.

He still strikes out too much, but he did make huge improvements in that catagory last year, so there's at least some reason for optimism.

I took him Saturday in Pie Leeg as the 21st SS off the board. Too early?

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13 minutes ago, E-Z Glider said:

He still strikes out too much, but he did make huge improvements in that catagory last year, so there's at least some reason for optimism.

I took him Saturday in Pie Leeg as the 21st SS off the board. Too early?

I'd draft him there but I think hype is going to push him as high as the low teens if he wins an opening day job.   That's too rich for my blood.

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1 hour ago, Eephus said:

I'd draft him there but I think hype is going to push him as high as the low teens if he wins an opening day job.   That's too rich for my blood.

Gets pretty boring at SS after the top 6. You're right though, the hype is building.

Edited by E-Z Glider

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So, Story or Reyes? :shrug:

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1 hour ago, Eephus said:

So, Story or Reyes? :shrug:

I fold.

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7

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6 hours ago, E-Z Glider said:

The extremely low ground-ball rate mixed with the thin air of Colorado is certainly appealing. I say Jose never plays again for the Rox again, and Story sticks and gets plenty of ABs.

Low average / OBP with 22HR and 17SB  

 

was gonna post 22/18... but I'll give him a .260 average

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He's shown he can take a walk at every level but he's hit in some really hitter-friendly places.  I think he should be decent enough in OBP leagues, but he hit 17 homers in 700 Cal League at bats.  He ain't hitting 22. 

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20 minutes ago, Doctor Detroit said:

He's shown he can take a walk at every level but he's hit in some really hitter-friendly places.  I think he should be decent enough in OBP leagues, but he hit 17 homers in 700 Cal League at bats.  He ain't hitting 22. 

Also another year of physical maturity, kid is 23. 

 

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43 minutes ago, Smack Tripper said:

Also another year of physical maturity, kid is 23. 

 

I'm gonna hit 60 then

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10 hours ago, Doctor Detroit said:

He's shown he can take a walk at every level but he's hit in some really hitter-friendly places.  I think he should be decent enough in OBP leagues, but he hit 17 homers in 700 Cal League at bats.  He ain't hitting 22. 

He had 20 last year in 512 ABs and he has 4 in 32 ABs this spring. There isnt a much more hitter friendly place than Coors. I'm more worried about ABs. There's still a chance he starts in AAA or has a short leash even if he does break camp.

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2 hours ago, E-Z Glider said:

MHe had 20 last year in 512 ABs and he has 4 in 32 ABs this spring. There isnt a much more hitter friendly place than Coors. I'm more worried about ABs. There's still a chance he starts in AAA or has a short leash even if he does break camp.

Jesus Montero had a .966 OPS in the PCL last year. 

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On ‎3‎/‎22‎/‎2016 at 8:31 AM, E-Z Glider said:

He had 20 last year in 512 ABs and he has 4 in 32 ABs this spring. There isnt a much more hitter friendly place than Coors. I'm more worried about ABs. There's still a chance he starts in AAA or has a short leash even if he does break camp.

Do we know anything on Reyes yet?  Is he the only person that's in his way currently?

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4 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

Do we know anything on Reyes yet?  Is he the only person that's in his way currently?

Trial starts April 4th (opening day). Manfred will not hand out punishment until after the trial. Reyes is the first big domestic violence case for MLB, so its hard to say what the punishment will be. Many believe he will try to establish a hard-line stance on domestic violence. In a much less significant charge (in which there wasnt even an arrest), Chapman got 30 games. Its believed Reyes' punishment will be much more harsh. Some articles suggest Reyes will never play in a Rockies uni again. 

There really isnt any "person" standing in Story's way at the moment. Probably comes more down to whether the Rox are willing to start his arb clock, but according to them, that will not be a consideration on whether he makes the team.

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2 minutes ago, E-Z Glider said:

Trial starts April 4th (opening day). Manfred will not hand out punishment until after the trial. Reyes is the first big domestic violence case for MLB, so its hard to say what the punishment will be. Many believe he will try to establish a hard-line stance on domestic violence. In a much less significant charge (in which there wasnt even an arrest), Chapman got 30 games. Its believed Reyes' punishment will be much more harsh. Some articles suggest Reyes will never play in a Rockies uni again. 

There really isnt any "person" standing in Story's way at the moment. Probably comes more down to whether the Rox are willing to start his arb clock, but according to them, that will not be a consideration on whether he makes the team.

Thank You -  I stashed him late draft and actually need him or Arcia to win a job.

My bench is all prospects in a dynasty league and I'm playing with fire early.

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18 minutes ago, E-Z Glider said:

Trial starts April 4th (opening day). Manfred will not hand out punishment until after the trial. Reyes is the first big domestic violence case for MLB, so its hard to say what the punishment will be. Many believe he will try to establish a hard-line stance on domestic violence. In a much less significant charge (in which there wasnt even an arrest), Chapman got 30 games. Its believed Reyes' punishment will be much more harsh. Some articles suggest Reyes will never play in a Rockies uni again. 

There really isnt any "person" standing in Story's way at the moment. Probably comes more down to whether the Rox are willing to start his arb clock, but according to them, that will not be a consideration on whether he makes the team.

His K:BB rate too.  If it's 24.7:5.8 like it was in AAA last year then sending him back to the minors to make adjustments and having Adames stabilize things should be an option for a team not competing this year.  If the AA BB rate returns then even if his K rate regresses back towards 30 I'd think Story would be the guy for at least this year.  Scouts say his defense isn't great at SS, but it's at least passable given his power and like you said they don't really have any viable alternatives right now.  He needs to get that BB rate back up though.

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On ‎3‎/‎21‎/‎2016 at 6:09 PM, E-Z Glider said:

He still strikes out too much, but he did make huge improvements in that catagory last year, so there's at least some reason for optimism.

I took him Saturday in Pie Leeg as the 21st SS off the board. Too early?

I don't think so. I wouldn't want to depend on him as an everyday player (at least not right away), but at the point where you drafted him he might be platoonable - start him at MI in Coors, start someone else when he goes on the road. At a position filled with boring 700 OPS righties more valued for their defense, there's some value in having a guy whose productive days are more predictable.

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300 PAs - 7/35/.285 OBP, 6 steals.

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I still think he ends up starting in AAA with Adames getting the first 3 weeks or so and then Story will be up the rest of the way, though he's making it a tougher sell the more he hits in ST. Reyes is not likely to play for the Rockies again. 

There was a good article on Story on Fangraphs that looked at his extreme flyball tendencies. They point out that Coors helps him out in a couple of ways, keeping strikeouts down and rewarding balls in the air. It was also noted that he improved his contact rate considerably last year. 

500 PAs, 250/315/450, 18 HR, 22 SB

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10 hours ago, Chemical X said:

300 PAs - 7/35/.285 OBP, 6 steals.

This seems closer to right than the other predictions in here IMO

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40 HR/SBs would be huge.

 

.240, 25 HR/SB

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bought him for $8 in a 12-team NL 5x5 league ($260/team budget with about 11% inflation due to keepers). had him pegged at $11. then picked up Adames in the reserve draft portion.

Reyes went for $11.

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With today's roster moves it looks almost certain now that he'll be the opening day SS. 

Raphael Ynoa was optioned, and he would have been the first utility player in the scenario with Adames handling the SS duties for a few weeks. 

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No chance he gets playing time/eligibility anywhere other than SS? I already have Correa and Russell on my two squads.

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1 hour ago, Dickie Dunn said:

No chance he gets playing time/eligibility anywhere other than SS? I already have Correa and Russell on my two squads.

Unlikely IMO. He played a decent amount of second and third in the minors but it's hard to come up with a good scenario where he sees a lot of time anywhere but short this season. If he's struggling in the field or at the plate they would probably send him back down as opposed to keeping him up in a utility role where he's not getting steady ABs. Maybe if Arenado missed a lot of time they would consider shifting him over, but my guess is they would consider other options there. 

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Be aware they have raised the outfield walls at Coors Field.

 

Quote

The Rockies will raise their outfield wall between right-center and right field by 8 feet and 9 inches, to match the height of the out-of-town scoreboard, at 16 feet-6 inches in height. A green-coated, chain-link fence will sit on top of the existing green-padded wall in front of the visiting and home bullpens.

The outfield wall height also will increase down the left field line, by 5 feet, to 13 feet. That extended fence will be in front of the tunnel next to the bleachers.

The new fences, which will not block any seats, will be installed this month and be in place before the Rockies' 22nd home opener at Coors Field, on April 8 against the Padres......

The Rockies, Bridich said, determined that right-center field and down the left field line were high-home run areas. They used a formula that accounts for the launch angle and exit velocity of hits off the bat to figure out how to reduce easy homers. By that measure, total home runs at Coors Field could fall by 5-6 percent.

 

 

Edited by ffldrew

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3 hours ago, ffldrew said:

Be aware they have raised the outfield walls at Coors Field.

 

 

 

Good info, thank you... don't really see that slowing offense dramatically, Mile High Stadium had some extreme distances and high fencing and you got a lot of kangaroo balls... but big news if you're in a double and triples category league

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I predict Reyes' case will be dropped and will face a small suspension. Story will be in AAA before the end of April

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Have to think he still gets 30 games, if not 40, 50 or 80 but definitely drop the story mania. 

Chapman got 30 games for basically discharging a firearm, there was no physical evidence whereas there is with Reyes wife.   Then there's the matter of the team wanting the headache

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A Reyes conviction and lengthy suspension would have been a good scenario for the Rockies because it would have saved them part of the $48M remaining on his contract.   At this point, their best result would be for Reyes to play, stay healthy and recover enough trade value to bring something in return.   I can't see them releasing Reyes and eating the balance of his deal. 

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At this point I don't think Reyes affects Story's season much, at least not nearly as much as Story himself. I think the o/u on his suspension is still well north of the the 30 games Chapman received. I think the earliest he'd be in the picture at all is somewhere around June.

If Story is playing well they aren't going to send him down or sit him to showcase a player who is basically untradeable unless they eat most of his contract anyway. If he isn't playing well he'll probably be sent down anyway to get more time against AAA pitching (though it's always of questionable value in the PCL) and to preserve service time.

 

Edited by Arsenal of Doom

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Took Greinke deep to the opposite field

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Recalibrating...

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13 hours ago, Eephus said:

Recalibrating...

:coffee:

"why not go for 40"

- Sarcastic Eupheus in sleeper thread

Edited by TripItUp

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