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***Official*** 2016 Dynasty Value Assessment Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Pwingles
- Start date
Captain Cranks
Footballguy
There was a thread on dynastyleaguefootball's forum where they ranked players from 2016 and 2017's class together. Most had Zeke either third or fourth on the list.
Pwingles
Footballguy
I would value him as a top 2, maybe 3 depending on how much you like Fournette, chubb, cook. Meaning I would need a top 3 2017 pick at least, for me to wanna move any pick where i was guaranteed Zeke. But I am higher on him than most.
Pwingles
Footballguy
You know who they are after? if so, I might gamble and wait til youre OTC and see if he will give you more. Could blow up in your face tho
I think you'd be better off using the pick and then trading that guy for a 2017 pick later.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
I have Elliott in the same tier as the top 2017 RB's. Elliott is the same age as the 2017 guys (younger than Fournette, a few months older than Chubb/Cook), plus we know for sure he's graded as a top prospect coming into the NFL. A lot can happen to a players value in college, i'd definitely take the elite bird in the hand.
bostonfred
Footballguy
If you were afraid of the manning retirement the time to sell him was two years ago. If you're speculating on a guy who made some big plays with tebow under center and hoping they have something better than Tebow at qb this year take a chance. I would probably buy for a late first if I needed a high upside guy at receiver but I wouldn't count on him. I wouldn't give a top six pick and personally I wouldn't give 1.9 or earlier.
slackjawedyokel
Footballguy
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bostonfred
Footballguy
Just because that's the most I'd give doesn't mean that's what the owner will sell for. He is coming off a 105 catch 1300 yard season. His owner paid a bunch for him or turned down trade offers he won't get anymore.
But he had just 6 tds, he played his full season with two guys who have been in that system for years and is going to be in a much different qb situation this year, and he turns 29 this season so how many years of waiting will you be willing to give him if he drops off? He has value, but there are several other guys I'd rather buy than him available for the same price.
But he had just 6 tds, he played his full season with two guys who have been in that system for years and is going to be in a much different qb situation this year, and he turns 29 this season so how many years of waiting will you be willing to give him if he drops off? He has value, but there are several other guys I'd rather buy than him available for the same price.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Let's keep this conversation productive. We obviously disagree on his value. The next question is should you try to buy him now. I say no, and not just because I'm down on him going forward.
Let's say he has a bad year. Buying him now you're going to pay "this receiver will be 28 at the start of the season and just had 100/1300" prices. At the end of the year, you'll be able to sell him for "this guy is entering his age 30 season and the qb situation sucks". That's a huge loss in value unless you can get him cheap. Which is why I would only try to get him cheap.
But let's say he has a good year. Is his value going to go up? At the end of the year you're still going to have a guy entering his age 30 season. You won't get much more for him than you paid for him unless you buy him cheap. So you can lose a lot of value but can't gain much. That's generally a bad bet.
So when can you get him cheapest? Draft day is usually good, with rookie fever in effect. Some owners might fall in love with a guy and you can do a deal when he's still available late.
But i think you gain the most by waiting until week 3 or so. There's a good chance sanders starts off the year looking like the number one. All you need is a couple fairly likely mediocre weeks and you can capitalize on the fear. That's when you buy a guy like this. If you miss out, oh well. It was never going to be a great buy anyways. You don't need to have every good player.
Let's say he has a bad year. Buying him now you're going to pay "this receiver will be 28 at the start of the season and just had 100/1300" prices. At the end of the year, you'll be able to sell him for "this guy is entering his age 30 season and the qb situation sucks". That's a huge loss in value unless you can get him cheap. Which is why I would only try to get him cheap.
But let's say he has a good year. Is his value going to go up? At the end of the year you're still going to have a guy entering his age 30 season. You won't get much more for him than you paid for him unless you buy him cheap. So you can lose a lot of value but can't gain much. That's generally a bad bet.
So when can you get him cheapest? Draft day is usually good, with rookie fever in effect. Some owners might fall in love with a guy and you can do a deal when he's still available late.
But i think you gain the most by waiting until week 3 or so. There's a good chance sanders starts off the year looking like the number one. All you need is a couple fairly likely mediocre weeks and you can capitalize on the fear. That's when you buy a guy like this. If you miss out, oh well. It was never going to be a great buy anyways. You don't need to have every good player.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Borden
Footballguy
Agreed but I've read that a team (Miami?) might be interested in trading for him. If I had a rebuild team with roster space I might be willing to stash him. He'd be a throw in as a part of a bigger trade. Not worth even a late round pick currently.
Borden
Footballguy
DT, is worth way more than 1.09 in this years draft. I like Zeke (1.01) more than DT but I'd give the 1.02 for DT. Rookies still have a high fail rate. With DT I'm guarenteed a #1 with proven production.
I haven't been a buyer of DT because of the QB situation but this might be a good to buy low if people think the sky is falling.
I haven't been a buyer of DT because of the QB situation but this might be a good to buy low if people think the sky is falling.
His price is for sure dropping. It's not a ton to go on but based on draft results of FFPC small time $35-77 DE leagues he's starting to go in third round of redrafts. Going back to pre-FA, when he was starting to go for bargain type prices, his stock has fallen arguably as much as any player who was getting picked in first 2-3 rounds.Borden said:
I certainly would not pay 1.2 for him but frankly he puzzles me. Had a good year but ended up looking terrible. He's older but not old. He's going to have a new QB but he was actually productive with Tebow and Peyton blew last year. Really hard to wrap my head around to be honest. Seems like a good value on the surface and yet I don't find myself really badly wanting to be on the paying end of some of the deals I've seen for him.
matttyl
Footballguy
If you're rebuilding, I'd hold Evans. After this past year you're not going to get what you could have gotten 2 years ago. Let he and the QB mesh some more. He should be a cornerstone to build around. Landry I don't have a good read on as that offense is going through some changes (who's the RB again), and who's the #1 WR there?
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Find an owner that has Landry in another league. He's a tough one to convince someone else of, but those who own his absolutely love him. They may love him because they got him for a rookie 3rd, and not willing to pay premium prices, but that's your best bet. You should expect to get about 1.02 value for him. Evans is a top 15 dynasty asset, and you'll find 1/2 the people say top 10 and the other say top 20. Sell to the right guy and get top 8 value for him. That would be multiple rookie 1sts, one probably very early. I'd shoot for a trade like Parker and 1.01 for him.
Use this chart if you can since you have the high-valued asset. Personally I think it's top-heavy on the value number overall. This is a good cross-comparison of pick ADP to names.
Use this chart if you can since you have the high-valued asset. Personally I think it's top-heavy on the value number overall. This is a good cross-comparison of pick ADP to names.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
If he has a productive season for you at age 28, you don't HAVE TO trade him the next season. I understand why people talk about players losing trade value and treating the game like a stock market to some extent (those are all essential elements), but sometimes we fail to see the forest for the trees, and forget that ultimately the game is about production. If some one can get Thomas now at a relative discount and he has three highly productive seasons does it matter that in year 4 you'd need to sell him for even less because he's entering his age 31 season?bostonfred said:
mr roboto
Footballguy
This is a crucial point to counterbalance the value game. Trading value works great in a rebuild or demolition mode but teams that win consistently are the ones with long-term consistent players.
One of the best teams in our league has Brady and AP. He has had dozens of trade offers over the years for teams who are trying to 'win now'. But he just keeps putting them into his lineup, winning playoff games, 2 championships in 5 years.
The teams that trade most often in my league fail to sustain success.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Why would you move those two guys on a rebuild? Personally I'm not a huge Landry fan and would consider moving him, but those seem like guys you should be building around.
MattFancy
Footballguy
Sure, I'd like to keep Evans, but at the same time, if someone offered me something really good for him, I wouldn't turn it away. As for Landry, I guess I'm just worried if he can keep the high target rate going forward. With Parker healthy next season, I think his numbers dip. He's not a big TD guy, so if his targets drop, he's not nearly as valuable, IMO.
I dropped Yeldon WAY down after they signed Ivory. Probably an overcorrection, but I also thought he was inappropriately overvalued at about RB6-7 overall. I've got him around RB15 today.
As for Jones, I think the jury is still out. They aren't going to sign anyone significant to threaten him, but it's a good bet they draft another RB in the 4th or 5th to push him. Based on some conversations I've heard with their GM, the Redskins are pretty high on Jones but they are also being practical.
mikel2014
Footballguy
Evans is a guy I'm looking to move. Yes he has incredible athletic ability but his hands concern me. I'm not going to sell him cheap but if I can move him for Amari Cooper, Allen Robinson, or Sammy Watkins I'm all over it. Basically I'm moving him for a similarly valued young stud WR. That's a move that I can see being a huge gain a few years from now that looks like a lateral move right now.
As an aside, if I have a young stud WR I'm only moving him for another young stud WR. My biggest trade regret is trading Julio Jones for Arian Foster a few years ago. Foster's peak has come and gone while Julio keeps going.
Agree that in general Evans and Landry are foundation pieces to build on but also agree with your take on Landry. Completely different offense, he's not done so hot as an outside WR so to some degree he's scheme specific and since he's been high volume in the past scheme it's a bit of concern that he can only go one way. Their is a counter argument to make and that's he's super young, has been a very consistent producer, can probably improve the TD's and his game has a lot of elements of a young Hines Ward to me. But all that being said if you can get someone to pay based on what's he was last yer and remove yourself from worry about a regression I think it's good business.
I own Evans in one league, took him 1.8 in startup draft last year. Despite him having a high ADP in startups I get 2-3 crappy offers a week for him, usually from same guy but not always and it's enough to tell me he's not a sale high right now. I'd do price checks and I'd need top 12 startup value.
He can make contested catches really well and has strong hands and I know it's a bit of cliche but I think his drops are concentration drops but it's an issue he needs to work on. But it's not my concern with him, that concern would be getting in shape and some stuff on that:
Last year before I was about to pick him at 1.8 in a startup I did twitter and google recon on him. Found some stuff he tweeted early last off-season about planning to lose some weight and thought great. Later found a tweet from him saying how much he loved Chipotle and eats there about 5 times a week. I'm sure Chipotle has healthy options but this was not what I wanted to hear. Later I found some photo of him doing off-season workouts with Randy Moss, Terrell Pryor and another NFL WR who I can't remember. They all their shorts off and basically Mike Evans had a dad bod. Moss was in better shape and he was starting to look a little softer. Finally to confirm these fears I read last week or so that Tampa wanted him to work on his conditioning and lose some weight.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Yeldon dropped from about 37 overall (RB7) to about 60th (RB16). I think that's an overcorrection. If you can trade Hurns, Sanders, and similar WR for him in a PPR league I would do it. His long term upside isn't affected much. That said I would prefer Henry to him even in a PPR league and he's RB17. He is still tradeable at his current valuation depending on what you get back.
Jones likely has a higher floor in 2016, but long term I think he is more replaceable and has only a modest chance to win the job past 2016. Football Outsiders ranked him last of all RB with 100+ carries. He is only buoyed because of his receiving ability. I think Jones is someone you sell as hard as you can. He was overdrafted and didn't play that well.
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
to be honest I'm not sure I see him being worth much. When has he looked good? Maybe you watch more Vikings games than me but I want no parts of that passing game. Maybe you can blame the play calling too but to me Teddy doesn't pass the eye test, I don't see him ever being a starter in a 12 team league myself. He isn't terrible but he is just a bit slow to react and a tad too inaccurate for me to want him
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
PPR what are everyone's thoughts on the Detroit backfield? Abdullah vs. Riddick vales??
If he was my backup QB I'd be on the lookout for a low cost backup QB upgrade.
As a player when he came into the league I thought his closest comp was Alex Smith. Two years in I feel even stronger about that comp, so to me he's Alex Smith 2.0 in a considerably worse QB friendly offense.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I'm not willing to shovel dirt on Bridgewater's career when he's never had a legitimate wr1. Give him a first round wr this year as Peterson approaches the end and he could see a significant uptick in attempts and yards per attempt. I don't think a guy like Diggs is good enough to elevate Bridgewater or vice versa, but Doctson or Treadwell would immediately elevate his stock.
I'm very high on Coleman but he feels like a bad fit in Minnesota to me. He needs a wr1 who he can feel safe throwing to, not a big play option. That stuff comes later, once he's comfortable running the offense and can take some occasional shots. Coleman's talents would be better used with a veteran qb who was confident enough to throw passes to a smaller receiver in tight spaces. Treadwell in particular would be a much better fit - a guy who knows where to go and aggressively gets after the ball once he's there.
I'm very high on Coleman but he feels like a bad fit in Minnesota to me. He needs a wr1 who he can feel safe throwing to, not a big play option. That stuff comes later, once he's comfortable running the offense and can take some occasional shots. Coleman's talents would be better used with a veteran qb who was confident enough to throw passes to a smaller receiver in tight spaces. Treadwell in particular would be a much better fit - a guy who knows where to go and aggressively gets after the ball once he's there.
Borden
Footballguy
Mike Evans is a hold. Bad drops but more time with Winston will help.
Landry, I like him I could see moving him. Parker should be 100% next year and they seem to be building on defense. Ideally, he is your WR3 and there's no reason to move him. I'd keep him and look to fill in other spots because I don't think you'll get want you need for him.
Yeldon took a bit hit when they brought in Ivory. I'd wait to move him. If in training camp he's getting a ton of buzz move him. If Ivory is getting all the love he's a guy you'll have to sit on until the season starts at least. Either way he's a wait and see.
Matt Jones is not the answer. Who knows what Washington will do but I'm guessing they will add an RB in the draft. I'd be really happy to get a late second rookie pick for him.
Bridgewater is just fine. I'd be quite content with him as my back up. He's still young and with any luck the team shifts slowly to his team like it did for Wilson. No reason to move him at all right now.
Landry, I like him I could see moving him. Parker should be 100% next year and they seem to be building on defense. Ideally, he is your WR3 and there's no reason to move him. I'd keep him and look to fill in other spots because I don't think you'll get want you need for him.
Yeldon took a bit hit when they brought in Ivory. I'd wait to move him. If in training camp he's getting a ton of buzz move him. If Ivory is getting all the love he's a guy you'll have to sit on until the season starts at least. Either way he's a wait and see.
Matt Jones is not the answer. Who knows what Washington will do but I'm guessing they will add an RB in the draft. I'd be really happy to get a late second rookie pick for him.
Bridgewater is just fine. I'd be quite content with him as my back up. He's still young and with any luck the team shifts slowly to his team like it did for Wilson. No reason to move him at all right now.
Captain Cranks
Footballguy
Borden
Footballguy
He got the touches but it think PFF or Outsiders has him as pretty much the worst starting RB late year. Plus, I think there's a high chance he loses his job this year.
Captain Cranks
Footballguy
Can't say I'm equipped to disagree with any of that, but in terms of his current value I think he's worth more than a late second, which is pretty close to a swing for the fences.
ETA - according to thriftyrocker's ADP data in February, Jones was drafted in between the 1.8 and 1.9.
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