What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

TE Hunter Henry, NE (1 Viewer)

All this talk makes it seem like we have been waiting 5 years for him to finally break out and being teased year after year - like DeVante Parker.  He was a rookie and a 2nd year TE playing behind an all-time great, and then missed a season.  Assuming he does not have a season-ending injury again, he plays this season as the starter with no hall of famer in front of him and a blue chip QB who has shown a propensity to feed the position.  I dont think it is nearly as much of a stretch as some people are making it out to be that this actually is the year that he breaks into TE1 territory. In fact I think saying he wont is the contrarian opinion, and I dont really buy any of the arguments that are being laid out in this thread.  Henry is primed for a breakout.  If the owner in your league thinks otherwise, then snag him for a 2nd rounder.

 
All this talk makes it seem like we have been waiting 5 years for him to finally break out and being teased year after year - like DeVante Parker.  He was a rookie and a 2nd year TE playing behind an all-time great, and then missed a season.  Assuming he does not have a season-ending injury again, he plays this season as the starter with no hall of famer in front of him and a blue chip QB who has shown a propensity to feed the position.  I dont think it is nearly as much of a stretch as some people are making it out to be that this actually is the year that he breaks into TE1 territory. In fact I think saying he wont is the contrarian opinion, and I dont really buy any of the arguments that are being laid out in this thread.  Henry is primed for a breakout.  If the owner in your league thinks otherwise, then snag him for a 2nd rounder.
TE1 territory... to be clear, you are projecting him to be a top 12 TE? If not, what? Put it on the record.

 
TE1 territory... to be clear, you are projecting him to be a top 12 TE? If not, what? Put it on the record.
Just making sure I wasnt on some island here...8 of the 9 FBGs who have done redraft rankings have him in the top 10.  I will say, its Waldman who has him outside the top 10 and that does give me pause because I trust his rankings more than most, but the other 8 have him inside the top 10 for the season, with an overall of 8.  The 4 guys who have done dynasty TE rankings in the past 21 days all have him top 11, with the overall at 6.  So I dont think saying he will finish in TE1 territory is such a novel concept.  

 
Just making sure I wasnt on some island here...8 of the 9 FBGs who have done redraft rankings have him in the top 10.  I will say, its Waldman who has him outside the top 10 and that does give me pause because I trust his rankings more than most, but the other 8 have him inside the top 10 for the season, with an overall of 8.  The 4 guys who have done dynasty TE rankings in the past 21 days all have him top 11, with the overall at 6.  So I dont think saying he will finish in TE1 territory is such a novel concept.  
My reaction to this is that many people who do rankings and projections do so in a formulaic manner that looks mostly at past performance and not at current context/situation. I follow the Chargers closely, and I think I understand the current context/situation better than a lot of guys who are ranking all skill players across 32 teams.

Any formulaic ranking is likely accounting for Henry's performance in 2016 (53 targets... but in 580 pass attempts) and 2017 (62 targets... but in 583 pass attempts) and ignoring 2018 since Henry was hurt... and thus ignoring that the Chargers dropped to 512 pass attempts. IMO they are much more likely to be close to 512 pass attempts in 2019 than 580-583 attempts, for reasons I posted yesterday.

Any formulaic ranking is likely using the fact that Henry scored 10 red zone TDs on 28 targets in 2016-2017... and ignoring the fact that Mike Williams emerged in his absence last season to score 7 red zone TDs on 13 targets and 1 rushing attempt, plus 1 2 point conversion on 1 target... 8 scores in 15 opportunities. Henry's red zone targets seem likely to decrease.

Last season, the top 12 TEs in PPR scoring all had at least 72 targets. Only 3 of them had fewer than 82 targets. Henry's career high in targets is 62, and that came in a season where the Chargers passed a lot more than I expect they will in 2019, as mentioned above. That is a big leap in targets Henry appears to need to finish in the top 10. Especially coming off a season lost to injury.

I own Henry in a dynasty league, so I would love to be wrong. :shrug:  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
My reaction to this is that many people who do rankings and projections do so in a formulaic manner that looks mostly at past performance and not at current context/situation. I follow the Chargers closely, and I think I understand the current context/situation better than a lot of guys who are ranking all skill players across 32 teams.

Any formulaic ranking is likely accounting for Henry's performance in 2016 (53 targets... but in 580 pass attempts) and 2017 (62 targets... but in 583 pass attempts) and ignoring 2018 since Henry was hurt... and thus ignoring that the Chargers dropped to 512 pass attempts. IMO they are much more likely to be close to 512 pass attempts in 2019 than 580-583 attempts, for reasons I posted yesterday.

Any formulaic ranking is likely using the fact that Henry scored 10 red zone TDs on 28 targets in 2016-2017... and ignoring the fact that Mike Williams emerged in his absence last season to score 7 red zone TDs on 13 targets and 1 rushing attempt, plus 1 2 point conversion on 1 target... 9 scores in 15 opportunities. Henry's red zone targets seem likely to decrease.

Last season, the top 12 TEs in PPR scoring all had at least 72 targets. Only 3 of them had fewer than 82 targets. Henry's career high in targets is 62, and that came in a season where the Chargers passed a lot more than I expect they will in 2019, as mentioned above. That is a big leap in targets Henry appears to need to finish in the top 10. Especially coming off a season lost to injury.

I own Henry in a dynasty league, so I would love to be wrong. :shrug:  
Gates got 52 targets the year Henry had 62.

 
Agree, why of all injuries is that concerning? AFAIK, he had one grade 1 concussion in 2016 and after protocol was cleared for the next game. His other injuries were left knee, right ACL and a kidney laceration -- I don't recall him suffering any other concussions.

This guy has the size and skill to turn in a quality season in a high-powered offense, but there are plenty of weapons on the offense, and the trend we saw last year of Rivers utilizing his backs much more in the passing game, and Mike Williams developing into a trusted red zone target, are what shies me away from believing "THIS IS FINALLY THE YEAR" for Henry.
And, not to be nit picky, but there no longer is any such thing as a grade 1 concussion.  The grading system was abandoned as early as 2013, so how that got reported for Henry in 2016 is beyond me.  

Regardless, he had an isolated concussion which should be of zero concern with respect to declines in cognition, physical ability, or increased susceptibility.

 
It's like you guys aren't reading my posts or are just ignoring the information in them. Cool, I will agree to disagree with the majority in here, and we'll see how it plays out.

 
It's like you guys aren't reading my posts or are just ignoring the information in them. Cool, I will agree to disagree with the majority in here, and we'll see how it plays out.
You keep referencing his targets in seasons when he was splitting reps at TE with a HOFer.  Who is he splitting reps with this year?  If not withba HOFer, is it not logical that he sees 100 targets (6+ per game)?  How do you see 500 pass attempts, at the very least, distributed?  

I think if healthy he’s a lock for top 10 production.  It’s just not that difficult to get to that level.  Top 5 may be pushing it, but it’s within the realm of possibilities.  

 
My reaction to this is that many people who do rankings and projections do so in a formulaic manner that looks mostly at past performance and not at current context/situation. I follow the Chargers closely, and I think I understand the current context/situation better than a lot of guys who are ranking all skill players across 32 teams.

Any formulaic ranking is likely accounting for Henry's performance in 2016 (53 targets... but in 580 pass attempts) and 2017 (62 targets... but in 583 pass attempts) and ignoring 2018 since Henry was hurt... and thus ignoring that the Chargers dropped to 512 pass attempts. IMO they are much more likely to be close to 512 pass attempts in 2019 than 580-583 attempts, for reasons I posted yesterday.

Any formulaic ranking is likely using the fact that Henry scored 10 red zone TDs on 28 targets in 2016-2017... and ignoring the fact that Mike Williams emerged in his absence last season to score 7 red zone TDs on 13 targets and 1 rushing attempt, plus 1 2 point conversion on 1 target... 9 scores in 15 opportunities. Henry's red zone targets seem likely to decrease.

Last season, the top 12 TEs in PPR scoring all had at least 72 targets. Only 3 of them had fewer than 82 targets. Henry's career high in targets is 62, and that came in a season where the Chargers passed a lot more than I expect they will in 2019, as mentioned above. That is a big leap in targets Henry appears to need to finish in the top 10. Especially coming off a season lost to injury.

I own Henry in a dynasty league, so I would love to be wrong. :shrug:  
the rankings I trust the most are https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/ppr-te-cheatsheets.php , they take all the rankings from all prognosticators 'experts' and so on,  and aggregate everything. great site indeed. SPOILER ALERT: they have Henry as TE #5. add to that the previous poster saying 8 of 9 FBG's guys have Henry in the top 10 ( except Waldman , but he's the same guy who basically said Teddy Bridgewater the greatest thing since sliced bread,  :lmao: :lmao:  Waldman)

first off your stats are wrong, Rivers threw 508 times last season, the TEAM threw 512 times - obviously non-QBs here. but we're splitting hairs.

only ONCE in the past 9 seasons has Rivers thrown LESS than 508 times in a single season  - and that was LAST YEAR.

on his career, he avg's 538 att/yr. 

Since 2010, he's avg'd 565 att/yr. while your opinion " they are much more likely to be close to 512 pass attempts in 2019 than 580-583 attempts, for reasons I posted yesterday."is your opinion, we get it,  but it  doesnt hold water when compared to facts and actual statistics from 9 years worth of data.

you can bet your bottom dollar that Rivers will be at or nearer to 565 than he ever will be to 212. 

 
first off your stats are wrong, Rivers threw 508 times last season, the TEAM threw 512 times - obviously non-QBs here. but we're splitting hairs.
I said the Chargers had 512 pass attempts, and they did. I was not wrong.

only ONCE in the past 9 seasons has Rivers thrown LESS than 508 times in a single season  - and that was LAST YEAR.

on his career, he avg's 538 att/yr. 

Since 2010, he's avg'd 565 att/yr. while your opinion " they are much more likely to be close to 512 pass attempts in 2019 than 580-583 attempts, for reasons I posted yesterday."is your opinion, we get it,  but it  doesnt hold water when compared to facts and actual statistics from 9 years worth of data.
I was assuming that everyone in the Shark Pool in May would understand that the 2019 situation for a given team is not the same as the situations for the past 9 years for that team.

The Chargers defense should be better in 2019 than it has been in the last 9 seasons. It should be a top 3 defense. How many times in the past 9 seasons did the Chargers have a top 3 defense? Hint: none.

HC Lynn was in his second season last year (second season as Chargers HC and second season as NFL HC), and he installed the offensive philosophy he wants - ball control, balanced offense. Nothing significant has changed in offensive personnel other than (a) getting Henry back, (b) not having Gates (for now), and (c) not having Tyrell Williams back. Altogether, those factors favor running more, not passing more.

 
...is it not logical that he sees 100 targets (6+ per game)?  How do you see 500 pass attempts, at the very least, distributed?
500 attempts:

  • 10 spikes/throwaways
  • RB - 125 targets
  • WR - 275 targets
  • TE - 90 targets - by definition this means Henry is <90
 
One reason to be high on Henry is that he looked like one of the best TEs in the NFL over his first 2 seasons. Statistically he didn't put up huge totals, since he shared time with Gates, but his per snap, per route, and per target numbers were all elite (see: Football Outsiders, PFF). If he's that good then he should get his.

A second reason why someone might be high on Henry is if they looked at the Chargers' passing distribution in recent years and plugged Henry in as the TE. 2017 seems like the most natural point of comparison - they had the same coaching staff, Allen played all 16 games, they had the Gordon+Ekeler RB combo getting tons of targets (though it was weighted more towards Gordon then), they had a Williams at WR2 (though it was Tyrell instead of Mike) and Benjamin at WR3. Gates+Henry had 114 targets, so if you give Henry most of Gates's targets then that's an opportunity for huge production (as was noted in this thread going into the 2018 season), even if there's a drop in total passing attempts which reduces everyone's numbers proportionally. Things look worse if you go by the 2018 season, but that Charges squad had Virgil Green as its lead TE with Gates playing only 37% of their snaps, so I wouldn't go by that group.

 
Also, it isn't like Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are going in to the Iron man hall of fame. Have either played more than half of their eligible games as a pro? 

 
Also, it isn't like Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are going in to the Iron man hall of fame. Have either played more than half of their eligible games as a pro? 
Allen had a rough stretch between 2015-2016 playing only 9 games.  Aside from that, he has been reliable.  Hasnt missed a regular season game since then and only missed 3 in the 2 seasons prior.

 
I think the real key to all of this is a combination of two stats, passing attempts and targets to TEs.  Here's Rivers totals for the past 3 years and how many were to TEs:

579, 147

576, 122

508, 74

Does anyone truly think they're going to both go back to the high-attempt days of a couple seasons ago, and the massively heavy targeting of TEs? 

I think it's far more likely that there's under 100 total targets to the TE position as a whole.

 
I think the real key to all of this is a combination of two stats, passing attempts and targets to TEs.  Here's Rivers totals for the past 3 years and how many were to TEs:

579, 147

576, 122

508, 74

Does anyone truly think they're going to both go back to the high-attempt days of a couple seasons ago, and the massively heavy targeting of TEs? 

I think it's far more likely that there's under 100 total targets to the TE position as a whole.
I think it's fair to assess how much weight should be put into the fact that Rivers targeted his TE's 74 times last year when you consider that his options were a 38 year old Antonio Gates playing 23 snaps per game and the always fearsome Virgil Green.   2018 data as follows:

  • Antonio Gates: 366 snaps, 46 targets
  • Virgil Green: 673 snaps, 27 targets
  • Phillip Rivers: 965 snaps (didn't check, but I assume this is close to the Chargers total snap count for the year)
I think it's safe to say that Hunter Henry, assuming full health, is much more dynamic as a receiving option than either TE Rivers had at his disposal last year.  Also, Henry should be a near full time TE for the Chargers this year.  If Henry had played Green's 673 snaps last year, do you think that River's targets him only 27 times?  So does 74 TE targets seem typical or atypical?   I think if Henry plays 800-900 snaps this year as a full time TE it's going to be pretty tough for him to have much less than 100 targets.  Let's assume 90 targets to be safe, or 5.6 targets per game.   At a catch rate of 65% (Henry has career catch rate at 70%) and using his average of 13ypc, that would put him at 59 catches for 767 yards.  Throwing in even 6 TD's, that gives him 172 points in ppr, or 10.7ppg.  That would've made him TE8 on a ppg basis in 2018 and TE7 in ppg for 2017.   And there's plenty of upside from there IMO, as River's has show how adept he is at using his TE. 

While it makes total sense to factor in the drop in pass attempts in 2018, I really think the sky is falling crowd is overanalyzing the Charger's TE usage in 2018 when you consider what River's TE options were last season as compared to every season prior to that. 

 
While it makes total sense to factor in the drop in pass attempts in 2018, I really think the sky is falling crowd is overanalyzing the Charger's TE usage in 2018 when you consider what River's TE options were last season as compared to every season prior to that. 
But I'm not just talking about 2018.  His TE targets have been cut by 50% in the past three seasons.  That is not going to magically vault back up to the numbers from 2016 or 2017. 

And from a strategy standpoint, there's not a lot of difference between TE6 and TE20.  They all suck after the top uber studs and you're basically just praying for a TD to give you a solid score for the week. 

I'm not saying that Henry is a poor talent, nor am I saying that he shouldn't be considered to be TE6 or so.

 
But I'm not just talking about 2018.  His TE targets have been cut by 50% in the past three seasons.  That is not going to magically vault back up to the numbers from 2016 or 2017. 

And from a strategy standpoint, there's not a lot of difference between TE6 and TE20.  They all suck after the top uber studs and you're basically just praying for a TD to give you a solid score for the week. 

I'm not saying that Henry is a poor talent, nor am I saying that he shouldn't be considered to be TE6 or so.
Again, you're using 2018 TE target volume with atypical TE targets (Virgil Green and Gates playing 23 snaps per game) when talking about a "50% drop off in TE usage."   Regardless, as I stated above I don't think the TE volume needs to vault back up to 2017 levels for Henry to justify being somewhere in the TE4-TE7 range for dynasty TEs.  His floor, assuming health, seems to be pretty safely in the top 10 producing TE's.  And while I agree that TE8 doesn't provide a ton of value above TE20 (maybe ~2ppg), it also wouldn't surprise me if Henry received 110-120 targets, which would bump his production to something like 71-78 catches, 923-1,014 yards, and probably something like 6-10 TD's.   Even at that low range, that's TE5 production.   I don't think anyone is arguing that Henry is going to vault into the realm of production that Kittle, Kelce, and Ertz provided last year.  But he's as safe a TE as there is to provide top 8 production with some upside when compared to anyone else at the position.  They all have question marks. 

 
His floor, assuming health, seems to be pretty safely in the top 10 producing TE's.  And while I agree that TE8 doesn't provide a ton of value above TE20 (maybe ~2ppg), it also wouldn't surprise me if Henry received 110-120 targets, which would bump his production to something like 71-78 catches, 923-1,014 yards, and probably something like 6-10 TD's.
Completely agree with the first sentence, but I would be gobsmacked if the TE position is targeted that heavily this season.  It's likely going to be a much heavier dose of the running game and top flight defense.

 
One reason to be high on Henry is that he looked like one of the best TEs in the NFL over his first 2 seasons. Statistically he didn't put up huge totals, since he shared time with Gates, but his per snap, per route, and per target numbers were all elite (see: Football Outsiders, PFF). If he's that good then he should get his.

A second reason why someone might be high on Henry is if they looked at the Chargers' passing distribution in recent years and plugged Henry in as the TE. 2017 seems like the most natural point of comparison - they had the same coaching staff, Allen played all 16 games, they had the Gordon+Ekeler RB combo getting tons of targets (though it was weighted more towards Gordon then), they had a Williams at WR2 (though it was Tyrell instead of Mike) and Benjamin at WR3. Gates+Henry had 114 targets, so if you give Henry most of Gates's targets then that's an opportunity for huge production (as was noted in this thread going into the 2018 season), even if there's a drop in total passing attempts which reduces everyone's numbers proportionally. Things look worse if you go by the 2018 season, but that Charges squad had Virgil Green as its lead TE with Gates playing only 37% of their snaps, so I wouldn't go by that group.
Your first paragraph is what people are missing with Henry. He shared snaps as a rookie & 2nd year player & still put up good numbers.

I'm also not worried about his targets in the least. 100 is easily doable.

 
I think it's fair to assess how much weight should be put into the fact that Rivers targeted his TE's 74 times last year when you consider that his options were a 38 year old Antonio Gates playing 23 snaps per game and the always fearsome Virgil Green.
I agree with this. However, it is also fair to assess how much the RBs emerged in the passing game last season. Last season the RBs got 27.8% of the team targets. I'm sure this was in part due to the absence of better TE targets, but I'm equally sure that part of it was because of the receiving talent the team has in Gordon, Ekeler, and even Jackson.

Also, in 2017, he was sharing time with a 37 year old Gates playing 31 snaps a game, yet Henry only got 62 of 570 team targets. :shrug:  

 
Bottom line, I think there are 3 factors that really bear on Henry's opportunity:

  1. His health. He has had multiple injuries (knee, concussion, spleen) in his short career and has yet to play in 16 games.
  2. Whether or not the team brings Gates back. He has said he wants to come back, and the team has said it is considering it.
  3. How much the team passes.
My take on these:

  1. I am hopeful he can stay healthy. None of the injuries should really have any lingering effects.
  2. I think Gates will likely be back in a small role. If so, it won't impact Henry much, but it will be more than zero impact.
  3. I have already posted why I expect the Chargers passing attempts will be closer to 2018 than previous seasons.
Add it all up, and I would take the under on 80 targets.

 
My reaction to this is that many people who do rankings and projections do so in a formulaic manner that looks mostly at past performance and not at current context/situation. I follow the Chargers closely, and I think I understand the current context/situation better than a lot of guys who are ranking all skill players across 32 teams.

Any formulaic ranking is likely accounting for Henry's performance in 2016 (53 targets... but in 580 pass attempts) and 2017 (62 targets... but in 583 pass attempts) and ignoring 2018 since Henry was hurt... and thus ignoring that the Chargers dropped to 512 pass attempts. IMO they are much more likely to be close to 512 pass attempts in 2019 than 580-583 attempts, for reasons I posted yesterday.

Any formulaic ranking is likely using the fact that Henry scored 10 red zone TDs on 28 targets in 2016-2017... and ignoring the fact that Mike Williams emerged in his absence last season to score 7 red zone TDs on 13 targets and 1 rushing attempt, plus 1 2 point conversion on 1 target... 9 scores in 15 opportunities. Henry's red zone targets seem likely to decrease. 

Last season, the top 12 TEs in PPR scoring all had at least 72 targets. Only 3 of them had fewer than 82 targets. Henry's career high in targets is 62, and that came in a season where the Chargers passed a lot more than I expect they will in 2019, as mentioned above. That is a big leap in targets Henry appears to need to finish in the top 10. Especially coming off a season lost to injury.

I own Henry in a dynasty league, so I would love to be wrong. :shrug:  
What were you predicting the 2019 passing game to look like in April of 2018, coming off back-to-back 580+ attempt years?

What were your target projections for Henry before it was known he was going to miss the season?

 
I get the TE targets have dropped. While Double H was out last year , Rivers was working with ancient TEs. The drop makes sense.

Another big thing I don't think anyone has brought up, is that Rivers is the QB we're talking about here. Rivers more so than maybe any guy in the league, is a QB who relies and locks on to guys he likes and has worked with. Obviously Double H didn't play last year, but he had two good seasons with Rivers before that. I remember watching a training camp interview I think it was going into HH's second year and Rivers was talking the dude up like crazy. He likes him. And if Rivers likes you as a receiver, he's gonna go out of his way to find you.

 
All this talk makes it seem like we have been waiting 5 years for him to finally break out and being teased year after year - like DeVante Parker.  He was a rookie and a 2nd year TE playing behind an all-time great, and then missed a season.  Assuming he does not have a season-ending injury again, he plays this season as the starter with no hall of famer in front of him and a blue chip QB who has shown a propensity to feed the position.  I dont think it is nearly as much of a stretch as some people are making it out to be that this actually is the year that he breaks into TE1 territory. In fact I think saying he wont is the contrarian opinion, and I dont really buy any of the arguments that are being laid out in this thread.  Henry is primed for a breakout.  If the owner in your league thinks otherwise, then snag him for a 2nd rounder.


I offered a 2020 first and 3rd for him and was turned own.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
You guys are crazy looking at TE targets theast 2 years. Look at what they were when Gates was actually Gates. His record years. When he has a great TE, Rivers throws to his great TE. A lot. 

 
What were you predicting the 2019 passing game to look like in April of 2018, coming off back-to-back 580+ attempt years?

What were your target projections for Henry before it was known he was going to miss the season?
I searched to see if I could find any Chargers/Rivers/Henry projections I made last offseason and couldn't find any. Not sure if I posted anything or not, since the search function here isn't the most helpful.

If I had projected the Chargers team targets for 2018, I think I would have considered the team targets for 2017, in Lynn's first season as head coach: 583 passing attempts - 35 throwaways - 11 batted passes - 3 passes on which Rivers was hit as he threw - 2 spikes = 532 team targets. I would have probably reduced that by 1-2 pass attempts per game due to the expectation that the defense and running game would be better... perhaps by 1.5 attempts per game. Assuming the same number of non-target pass attempts (~8.7%), I probably would have projected 510 team targets. (All numbers from PFF.)

That would have missed high, since the actual results were 512 passing attempts - 17 throwaways - 13 batted passes - 7 passes on which the QB was hit as he threw - 0 spikes = 475 team targets. It was hard to project that the Chargers would run 75 fewer plays in 2018 than 2017, despite 20 fewer rushing attempts... or that the rushing yards per carry would go from 3.8 to 4.7. In retrospect, I think Lynn was much more comfortable in his second season as head coach, and he imposed the offensive philosophy he prefers. This is why I think the 2019 offense will be more like 2018 than previous seasons.

Given that I may have projected 510 team targets, what might I have projected for Henry before his injury? Well, for one thing, Gates wasn't signed at that time. So I would have projected Henry as TE1, Green as TE2, and Culkin (who ended up not making the roster) as TE3. My guess is that I would have projected Henry for 80 targets, Green for 25, and Culkin for 10, or something like that.

But keep in mind, entering last season, Mike Williams had not broken out. Now he has. Ekeler also had not yet solidified his role as a strong target in the passing game. Now he has. Those things affects TE targets. So, even if Henry was healthy, I think I would have missed high on that projection.

It is also worth noting that Henry is a very good blocker, and that can work to his detriment. Chargers fans, myself included, were frustrated that Henry didn't get more targets in 2017. The general reason for it was that the team felt it needed to keep Henry in to block often enough that it held his routes and targets down.

That is my best answer to your question. Perhaps your question was intended to imply that someone who follows the team closely cannot necessarily project outcomes accurately. I'm sure that is true, at least for me. Projecting NFL outcomes is pretty difficult, at least for me. But I stand by my point that one who follows the team closely can project outcomes for the next season independent of injuries better than one who simply uses formulaic projections based on 1, 2, 3, etc. year sample sizes. :shrug:  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
PFF ranks the top-10 tight ends ahead of the 2019 NFL season

Excerpt:

9. HUNTER HENRY, LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

2018 OVERALL GRADE RANK: —

Injuries have limited Henry to just 1,185 offensive snaps in his three-year career, but his production across the small sample size is spectacular. His 88.5 career overall grade ranks third among the 55 tight ends with at least 1,000 offensive snaps played since 2016. He’s also earned a 90.0 receiving grade in his career that also ranks third among the same set of qualifiers.

 
i see him in the engram OJ Howard tier in rankings... drafted in the 5-7 rounds... but why? was hoping to see more discussion here. i guess i dont get it. the guy doesnt have a track record to justify a TE6 ranking.

 
i see him in the engram OJ Howard tier in rankings... drafted in the 5-7 rounds... but why? was hoping to see more discussion here. i guess i dont get it. the guy doesnt have a track record to justify a TE6 ranking.
Wait.  Why should Engram or Howard be in a different tier than Henry?  Neither have done anything materially different than Henry has (splitting reps with Gates) thus far in their careers.  So back on you, what track record for Howard or Engram makes you confident in them vs Henry other than Henry coming back from injury?

 
OJ Howard is grossly overrated. Henry might be a touch underratd - Rivers loves the TE, rough start with backup RBs.we'll see. Henry is probably good for 60-ish catches 

 
Is there any concern that Hunter will be asked to block more with Russell Okung out for 6 weeks, maybe more?  I don't know much about their O-line.

 
Took him a half to get back in the rhythm of things, but 2nd half 4/60 on 5 targets. Expand that over a full game and there's definitely something to build on here. I think 800-1000 yards is very possible this season. Great to see that big hulking body back out on the field. Hopefully he can play all 16 this year. I'm excited.

 
Took him a half to get back in the rhythm of things, but 2nd half 4/60 on 5 targets. Expand that over a full game and there's definitely something to build on here. I think 800-1000 yards is very possible this season. Great to see that big hulking body back out on the field. Hopefully he can play all 16 this year. I'm excited.
I love the optimism!! I love everyone over reacting after week one...Henry had a solid 2nd half. He will get his from Phil. The key lime you said is he has to stay healthy. 

 
Fractured knee?  Ugh!

Antonio Gates please pick up the white courtesy phone...

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Users who are viewing this thread

Top