How many WRs have rushed for 400+ yards and 4 TDs in a season (Tavon Austin)? (1 Viewer)

Just asking because LA WR Tavon Austin did both in 2015 (10 combined TDs).

ESPN beat reporter Nick Wagoner is somewhat skeptical they would slap the franchise tag on him in 2017 ($12+ million), and I agree, so trying to get some context in order for a better informed sense of his valuation which includes his value BOTH as a rusher and MULTIPURPOSE weapon as well as a WR.

For instance, Percy Harvin is one of the best rushing WRs I've ever seen (started at RB and WR at Florida), and he never did either - rush for 400 yards or 4 TDs.

* Hard player to peg his value. If in the future they have more competent OC (Boras did a great job of getting him more involved once he took over in the latter part of 2015), OL and QB, I could see him get 800+ receiving yards, 400+ rushing yards and 12+ TDs (already did 400 rushing yards and had 10 combined TDs). Which seem like that might be worth $10+ million. Maybe more?

I think his skill set complements Gurley well, and they make each other more dangerous when they are both on the field together, by forcing defenses to account for their very different games.     

Some depends on who you classify as a rb vs wr.  Dexter McCluster had 500+ rush yards in 2011, but many sites list him as an rb or dual position player.  (Correctly imo.)

A cursory search of other potential names turned up nobody close.  Austin's stats there are likely unprecedented in recent times.

Thanks for the research, I figured either was probably at least extremely rare, and the combo possibly unprecedented.

There were some years when Harvin didn't play 16 games that he might have otherwise done it if healthy, and to an extent perhaps usage dictates how rare it has been. 

Good catch with McCluster, and agree with you on the positional designation (at least that year).

Blast from the past Eric Metcalf was an interesting case. Gifted athlete that was a two time NCAA champ and won the US Track and Field Championships in the long jump. His record of 27.7 feet still stands at Texas about three decades later (he finished in the top 10 in the '88 Olympic Trials) and he still owns all the school receiving records for RBs. As a CLE RB, he eclipsed 600 rushing yards twice ('89 & '93). After being traded to ATL, he was converted to WR and played in the Falcons prolific red gun passing attack (June Jones HC, scheme inventor/architect Mouse Davis OC, post-Jerry Glanville with Chris Miller, Andre Rison, Michael Haynes and Mike Pritchard), with the likes of Bobby Hebert, Terrance Mathis and Bert Emanuel, amassing 104-1,189-8 receiving in '95.

Vintage NYTimes article from '95

http://www.nytimes.com/1995/08/20/sports/pro-football-metcalf-wants-to-carry-falcon-offense-in-more-ways-than-one.html

* Metcalf's 12 return TDs are third on the all time list after Devin Hester and Brian Mitchell (10 punt returns second only to Hester). He was involved in the infamous trade in which SD included him with two 1sts and a 2nd round pick to ARI to move up one spot and draft Ryan Leaf.   

Harvin and Djax came to mind.  Really surprised Percy didn't hit 400yds

He's a gadget guy they finally out ways to use but he's not worth half the franchise tag.

What about David Patten from the Pats a decade or so ago. I seem to recall him being pretty rare. 

For players listed as a "WR", besides Austin, Bobby Mitchell did it in 1960 and 1961. Charley Taylor in 1964. And Eric Metcalf in 1989.

menobrown said:

He's a gadget guy they finally out ways to use but he's not worth half the franchise tag.

Click to expand...

The point of an extension would be to not have to pay the franchise tag. Hopefully they do that with Trumaine Johnson (currently designated, about $14 million).

Would you think of him as more than a gadget guy if he had 12 TDs? 15? More???

Same if he had 800-900 receiving yards and 400-500 rushing yards (1,200-1,400 combined)?

Since, as you alluded to, they probably bungled and misused him, there is a lot of uncertainty associated with what he could have done (or could do) under better circumstances, if used more competently. Clearly the former interim and now OC Boras did a better job of getting the ball in his hands once he took over last season, so they may have a better answer to that question of how to value him during the upcoming season.  

I went through PFR and the main thing I take away from this is that players from prior to the 1970s seem to have much more interesting names than most of the players coming after that. Come on parents you can do better than that.

I did find some other players besides the 3 David found.

Ken Carpenter

Charley Taylor

**** Hoak

Frank Gifford

Vic Washington

Johnny Robinson

Lenny Moore

Howard Cassady

Joe Chilldress

I am not sure what the LH position stands for. Anyone who knows, that would be much appreciated.

There are several TE who have done this as well.

I even found a kicker who did it.

Jack Spikes

cockroach said:

cockroach said:

Harvin and Djax came to mind.  Really surprised Percy didn't hit 400yds

Click to expand...

Harvin and Djax came to mind.  Really surprised Percy didn't hit 400yds

Click to expand...

Djax has cracked 100 rushing yards twice (career high of 137), and had 1 rushing TD in each of his first three seasons, not since.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JackDe00.htm

Me, too about Harvin. Injury and usage conspired against it (no question in my mind he had that kind of ability).  

Rhythmdoctor said:

What about David Patten from the Pats a decade or so ago. I seem to recall him being pretty rare. 

Click to expand...

Career high season rushing 5-67-1 in 2001, in a dozen NFL seasons, his next highs were 2 carries twice, 1 carry four times and 0 carries five times.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PattDa00.htm

Anarchy99 said:

For players listed as a "WR", besides Austin, Bobby Mitchell did it in 1960 and 1961. Charley Taylor in 1964. And Eric Metcalf in 1989.

Click to expand...

Looks like I may have opened up a can of worms, maybe I should have said since the merger.

I checked Metcalf, and PFR listed him as a RB (and kick, punt returner or both) when he went over 600 rushing yards twice in CLE, and he didn't get close when he was listed as a WR in ATL. That jibes with my recollection that he was more of a dual purpose RB/returner with the Browns (until being converted to WR in ATL). He was a great talent, I'm not sure they got the most out of him. ATL seemed to know how to use him, at least in that one great season in '95. Multi-purpose weapons like Metcalf (and already noted McCluster) are tricky for questions like this, especially when they changed positional designations during their career. 

I'm more familiar with RBs that were good receivers (Craig, Faulk, Westbrook, Bush) than WRs that were good rushers (other than Harvin and Austin - who shattered Maryland state records as a star prep RB, before converting to WR at West Virginia). I was thinking of Lydell, not Bobby Mitchell, as well as the great Lenny Moore - 7 X Pro Bowl, 5 X All-Pro, HOF, AVERAGED 7+ yards per carry in three different seasons, scored 20 TDs in 1964, and a TD in 18 straight APPEARANCES from '63-'65, a record that stood for four decades until Tomlinson broke it in 2005 (Moore didn't have the record for consecutive GAMES as he missed five with injury during that span).

Moore is also very tricky as he was listed variously as a RH (Right Halfback - a Single-wing RB designation), Flanker and Halfback. In the two seasons in which he was listed as a Flanker ('60 & '61), he rushed for 374 and 648 yards, with 4 & 7 TDs, respectively. So by the thread title criteria, he rushed for 400+ yards in '61 and 4+ TDs both seasons, AS A WR. Incredibly, his receiving production while a RB was far more mind boggling. He had a half decade of 40+ receptions from '57-'61, with the first three listed as a RB. Playing 12 game seasons, his receiving stats from '57-'59 were 40-687-7, 50-938-7 and 47-846-6 (prorated over a modern 16 game schedule = about 53-916-9, 67-1,250-9 and 63-1,128-8). For modern context and perspective, Roger Craig cracked 1,000 receiving yards once (1,016 in '85, never reached as much as 700 again in 11 seasons), Marshall Faulk also once (1,048 in '99, 908 his last season in IND in '98 and 830 in '00).

Thanks for bringing Bobby Mitchell to my attention, he was a HOF RB/WR/KR/PR (or old school positional designation Flanker). A RB/KR/PR with CLE from '58-'61, and looks like MOSTLY a Flanker with WAS from '62-'68. He was technically listed RH (RB) in '62, but only had 1-5 rushing that year. He did have 500+ yards rushing all four seasons in CLE (743 in his second - all but the last year were 12 game seasons) and 5 rushing TDs in the last three, BUT that was with the RB designation. Incidentally, he probably would have had far more prolific rushing stats, but he was Jim Brown's backup!  More interesting to me, in the half decade plus from '62-'67, his receiving stats playing 14 game seasons were 72-1,384-11, 69-1,436-7, 60-904-10, 60-867-6, 58-905-9 and 60-866-6, respectively. I'm not going to prorate all those half dozen seasons, but in his first two, would have = 82-1,582-12 and 79-1,641-8.

That leaves 8 X Pro Bowler and HOFer Charley Taylor. The below is from Mitchell's wiki bio.  

"In 1967, new head coach Otto Graham chose to move Mitchell back to halfback because of Graham's decision a year earlier to move the team's best running back, Charley Taylor, to wide receiver."

So he was another of these tricky multi-purpose weapons with multiple positional designations during their career. But looking at PFR (and jibing with the wiki timeline above), he had the bulk of his rushing totals in his first three years, listed as a HB in '64-'65 and split designation HB/SE (Split End) in '66, rushing for 199-755-5, 145-402-3 and 87-262-3 (actually for pretty modest per carry averages of 3.8, 2.8 and 3.0). Once he was converted to WR, he never had more than 3 carries after '66. He seems to be somewhat of what we now call a compiler, with great third and fourth year seasons of 72-1,119-12 and 70-990-9 (14 games in '66 but 12 in '67, possibly injury?), than hanging on for a 13 total season career, to the age of 36, never again reaching 900 yards receiving.

* Lenny Moore

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MoorLe00.htm

PFR Position Abbreviation Glossary

http://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2013/10/p-f-r-position-abbreviation-glossary/   

So the root of the topic would be, is Tavon Austin potentially just as valuable as the other offensive play makers? Hence the franchise tag discussion. 

Yes, that was the genesis of the question, or sort of what prompted the thread. But than as sometimes happens, I became interested in the question in and of itself with no underlying motive, purely to explore what has been done historically. 

Again sometimes, what has been done in the past can give context to the present and suggest what is possible in the future, in terms of some time honored constraints and precedents (though imo, of course we have to be careful to avoid drawing too many inter-generational conclusions based on eras that may not have too much in common with the present - one reason WR Don Hutson stands out so shockingly apart from his contemporaries, almost as if when some of the first amphibians to evolve and crawl out from the sea onto land arrived, only to find a fully formed primate or proto-hominid already waiting for them!). 

I was reminded of how great Lenny Moore was (and appears to fit the thread criteria), and learned about a player lost for me in the mists of the past - Bobby Mitchell. I can see why he was overshadowed as a RB in CLE by Jim Brown, but his WR heroics in WAS had eluded my historical perspective. No longer.

* BTW, ESPN Rams beat reporter Nick Wagoner is my go to source for team info, and he has expressed uncertainty (if not skepticism?) that they will use the franchise tag designation on Austin in 2017, which would be about $12+ million for a WR, I think. No idea what extension parameter negotiations might be, the $10 million in the OP was just conjecture. 

Sometimes the selective use of stats can be deceptive (like the cliché about a statistician that drowned in a river averaging 3' deep). It was very exciting when a rookie Austin had something like four 50+ yard TDs in a three week span (I recall IND and CHI being two of them), which hadn't been done since the days of Gale Sayers and Jim Brown about a half century before. There was also a freaky outlier stat in which having a 50+ yard rushing, 65+ yard receiving and 80+ yard punt return TD was unprecedented in league history. But than he regressed his second year, and the bottom line was, it didn't really translate to consistent production, in fantasy or real football, actual NFL terms. But he did show some signs of emergence and possibly being an ascendant player in 2015. So just wanted to bounce the idea off the thread, how rare were his rushing numbers last season FOR A WR, and, if as I suspected (and it seems to be confirmed, at least since the merger), they ARE rare, how to proceed interpreting that factoid - so what, or significant and suggestive of further breakout potential?    

Fair enough. 

Tavon Austin highlights - 2015

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOuxUMGEOoY

Legendary Oklahoma game (344 rushing and 574 all purpose yards, 2 TDs)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxzPryPMB74

Mr. Peabody's WABAC Machine (record breaking Baltimore prep RB)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBjUKd0lOEE 

Lenny Moore - HOF RB/WR

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6CseW4Xcnw

Eric Metcalf - Texas collegiate footage, you can see... A) The freakish athleticism, B) Why he was such a gifted and talented RB/WR/PR triple threat, and C) One of the most dangerous open field runners and greatest kick returners in NFL history

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ojNUQae8uA

Percy Harvin highlights - Florida and MIN (at times makes defenders look like the Star Trek episode in which the Enterprise crew were frozen and static relative to the hyper sped up aliens, maybe the most electrifying presence I've ever seen barreling towards the sideline on a jet sweep, the phrase "shot out of a cannon" was invented with the burst, suddenness, explosion and instant acceleration of athletes and talents like Harvin in his prime in mind) 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dl498S1-is4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DxFVSLbQq-I

Bobby Mitchell was the first black football player for WAS

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IS5eUMDnWgo

* How do they stack up, size-wise? It would probably be remiss to not at least note in passing, from this group, Mitchell and Moore at 6'0" or 6'1" and 190 lbs. were bigger and in an era of smaller players a half century or more ago, compared to Austin who is conversely smaller and in a contemporary era of larger players. Also, though, while shorter, Austin's weight is roughly proportionate to the others, in that if he was 2-3-4-5 inches taller, he would be anywhere from 185-200 lbs, almost as big as Metcalf and Harvin on the smurf-part of the MULTI-PURPOSE WEAPON continuum, and even bigger than Mitchell and Moore on the more hulking part of the spectrum. Of course, if the late Dr. Miguelito Loveless of Wild, Wild West was 2' taller and proportionate, he might have been bigger than Mitchell and Moore and company, too, but AS IS, I'd like their chances more.     

Loveless - 3'10", ?

Austin - 5'8", 175 lbs.

Metcalf - 5'10", 190 lbs.

Harvin - 5'11", 195 lbs.

Mitchell - 6'0", 190 lbs.

Moore - 6'1", 190 lbs.

Rocket Ismail - Doesn't fit the rushing criteria for an NFL WR (and no return TDs, somewhat surprisingly), but there are some similarities in terms of movement skills, COD ability, general elusiveness and make you miss ability in the open field with Austin - bigger at a listed 6'0", 190 lbs. While he had by far a more distinguished college career, Ismail did have two 1,000 yard receiving seasons as a pro. One of the fastest high profile stars I've ever seen in college at Notre Dame (personal best 10.2 100 m., second in the NCAA Championships in the 55 m). DAL was going to draft him #1 overall but he signed in Canada for the largest football contract ever in North America up to that time. Meanwhile, the Raiders drafted him for his rights in the fourth round at #100 (they also took Bo Jackson in the seventh round, as TB forfeited his rights after selecting him #1 overall when he opted to play baseball and they were unable to sign him by the following draft - I'm detecting a pattern here by Al Davis, pretty smart, credit where it is due). Rocket has two siblings nicknamed Missile (Qadry went to Syracuse and also played in the NFL) and Bomb (Sulaiman went to UTEP and played in the Arena league), so their mother Fatma was called "The Launch Pad".

The below video is vintage, at best poor quality and at worst bordering on unwatchable, ranging from brutal to heinous.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sb-QBR2IzlQ

Joey Galloway probably not a good example, doesn't fit the rush profile, but like Ismail, reminds me somewhat of this group in terms of electrifying speed and dangerous open field running ability (a bit more squat and thicker at 5'11", 195+ lbs., pretty much a Harvin doppleganger in terms of height/weight specs, or rather, Harvin is a Galloway doppleganger to get the chronology and sequence straight). An eighth overall pick of Seattle, he was one of the more accomplished NFL WRs of this group (especially in the modern era), and was just 13 yards shy in his second season of cracking the 1,000 receiving yard mark in his first four seasons, also adding 36 TDs via air delivery during that same span - as well as crossing the stripe 4 X on punt returns in his first three seasons. After a lengthy holdout, he was eventually dealt to DAL for two first round picks (one parlayed into Shaun Alexander successfully, the other into Koren Robinson not so much). He never broke 1,000 yards his four years in DAL (closest with 900), than was traded to TB for a deactivated, Chuckie chastising Keyshawn Johnson, so the latter could be reunited with former Jets HC Bill Parcells. Galloway had a bit of a Renaissance with the Bucs, with 1,000 yard seasons in the middle three of his five years there (including one with nearly 1,300 to re-ignite his multiple season streak) between the age of 34-36. He bounced around with NE and WAS his last two years, ultimately playing 16 seasons until he was 39.          

Ohio State highlights, again vintage video falls shy of the Blade Runner Blu-ray standard in terms of image quality 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUGMyGYtbHo

* Unofficial fastest 40 times

http://www.gridironstuds.com/blog/the-fastest-40-yard-dash-ever/

Should have explained more. I used the Historical Data Dominator and listed position as WR. Not sure there is a good way to determine which players were truly receivers or not. 

Anarchy99 said:

For players listed as a "WR", besides Austin, Bobby Mitchell did it in 1960 and 1961. Charley Taylor in 1964. And Eric Metcalf in 1989.

Click to expand...

Metcalf was a real RB. Great stuff thanks.

Borden said:

So the root of the topic would be, is Tavon Austin potentially just as valuable as the other offensive play makers? Hence the franchise tag discussion. 

Click to expand...

If that is the question, IMO the answer is clearly no, he is not worth franchise tag level money or anything close to it. This answer seems so obvious, I am wondering if it was an April Fool's joke.

Just Win Baby said:

If that is the question, IMO the answer is clearly no, he is not worth franchise tag level money or anything close to it. This answer seems so obvious, I am wondering if it was an April Fool's joke.

Click to expand...

Austin reached WR19 in non-ppr last season, 34th overall among RB/WR.  I don't know that that's irrelevant enough compared to "other offensive playmakers" to write the idea off as an April Fools' Joke.

Rhythmdoctor said:

What about David Patten from the Pats a decade or so ago. I seem to recall him being pretty rare. 

Click to expand...

There was nothing special about him. He was used on a few gadget plays. 

Biabreakable said:

I went through PFR and the main thing I take away from this is that players from prior to the 1970s seem to have much more interesting names than most of the players coming after that. Come on parents you can do better than that.

I did find some other players besides the 3 David found.

Ken Carpenter

Charley Taylor

**** Hoak

Frank Gifford

Vic Washington

Johnny Robinson

Lenny Moore

Howard Cassady

Joe Chilldress

I am not sure what the LH position stands for. Anyone who knows, that would be much appreciated.

There are several TE who have done this as well.

I even found a kicker who did it.

Jack Spikes

Click to expand...

LH stands for left halfback

Thank you. Very different game back then. It was fun learning a little bit about players I am too young to be aware of first hand.

SaintsInDome2006 said:

Metcalf was a real RB. Great stuff thanks.

Click to expand...

Metcalf had three seasons with more receptions than Austin has had yet in his career. His receiving stats 1992-1994 in Cleveland look almost identical to Austin's in his St. Louis career so far. 

Arodin said:

Austin reached WR19 in non-ppr last season, 34th overall among RB/WR.  I don't know that that's irrelevant enough compared to "other offensive playmakers" to write the idea off as an April Fools' Joke.

Click to expand...

He had 907 YFS and 9 TDs in 16 games last season. And that is his best season by far. That is not close to being worth a franchise tag. That is NFL discussion, so his fantasy rank doesn't really apply.

Just Win Baby said:

He had 907 YFS and 9 TDs in 16 games last season. And that is his best season by far. That is not close to being worth a franchise tag. That is NFL discussion, so his fantasy rank doesn't really apply.

Click to expand...

On that front though, the NFL often treats the franchise tag as a stopgap or negotiation move.  It doesn't always get given exclusively to the best of the best.  Heck, kickers seem as likely to get it as any other position.

In that level of specificity, whether a player "is worthy of the franchise tag" has as much to do with the team's cap situation, other options at the relevant position, etc. than it does with how the player stacks up with other players on other teams.

Arodin said:

On that front though, the NFL often treats the franchise tag as a stopgap or negotiation move.  It doesn't always get given exclusively to the best of the best.  Heck, kickers seem as likely to get it as any other position.

In that level of specificity, whether a player "is worthy of the franchise tag" has as much to do with the team's cap situation, other options at the relevant position, etc. than it does with how the player stacks up with other players on other teams.

Click to expand...

The franchise tag number for WRs this year was $14.6 million. Austin will be lucky to get that over three years. The Rams would be crazy to tag him, as that amount is guaranteed for one season.

Players would be silly to negotiate deals for less once they were tagged. It would make no sense for Austin to get tagged for $14.6 million and then agree to a four year extension worth $20 million, He'd be playing three years for $5.4 million total (given that he would get $14.6 million for Year One no matter what). Sure, sometimes players will take slightly less to sign for more years or bigger guarantees, but that's usually for only around $1 million a year less on a annual basis.

Arodin said:

On that front though, the NFL often treats the franchise tag as a stopgap or negotiation move.  It doesn't always get given exclusively to the best of the best.  Heck, kickers seem as likely to get it as any other position.

In that level of specificity, whether a player "is worthy of the franchise tag" has as much to do with the team's cap situation, other options at the relevant position, etc. than it does with how the player stacks up with other players on other teams.

Click to expand...

If you tag a player, you have to be willing to pay them top-5 money at their position. At kicker that's not much. At WR it's a ton. 

If you're Tavon Austin and someone offers you $15M guaranteed (the WR tag number) to play this season, why on earth would you be willing to negotiate for your true worth, which is probably about a third of that?

CalBear said:

If you tag a player, you have to be willing to pay them top-5 money at their position. At kicker that's not much. At WR it's a ton. 

If you're Tavon Austin and someone offers you $15M guaranteed (the WR tag number) to play this season, why on earth would you be willing to negotiate for your true worth, which is probably about a third of that?

Click to expand...

Great minds think alike.

Anarchy99 said:

Anarchy99 said:

Anarchy99 said:

Anarchy99 said:

Anarchy99 said:

Should have explained more. I used the Historical Data Dominator and listed position as WR. Not sure there is a good way to determine which players were truly receivers or not. 

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Me, too.

I intended to include an important criteria, *IN A SEASON*, that was an oversight, but is now reflected in the thread title. Also, as noted, I probably should have narrowed it to "since the merger", but it did lead to some interesting names suggested.

I just manually checked PFR by individual player and further broken down into individual seasons, both the usual suspects that occurred, and new ones suggested by you and others. But I know this isn't an ideal method for stat historical research.

Thought of Metcalf (didn't fit criteria) and Lenny Moore (did), hadn't considered Mitchell and Taylor (didn't fit). To answer your question, dunno if a possible query is, how many players did X (400/4 stat thresholds) in a given year Y while they were playing Z?     

Anarchy99 said:

The franchise tag number for WRs this year was $14.6 million. Austin will be lucky to get that over three years. The Rams would be crazy to tag him, as that amount is guaranteed for one season.

Players would be silly to negotiate deals for less once they were tagged. It would make no sense for Austin to get tagged for $14.6 million and then agree to a four year extension worth $20 million, He'd be playing three years for $5.4 million total (given that he would get $14.6 million for Year One no matter what). Sure, sometimes players will take slightly less to sign for more years or bigger guarantees, but that's usually for only around $1 million a year less on a annual basis.

Click to expand...

In case there is confusion about one of the relevant topics, from the second sentence of the first post:

"ESPN beat reporter Nick Wagoner is somewhat skeptical they would slap the franchise tag on him in 2017 ($12+ million), and I agree, so trying to get some context in order for a better informed sense of his valuation which includes his value BOTH as a rusher and MULTIPURPOSE weapon as well as a WR."

Austin has averaged 44 YFS over the past 3 years. Across all positions, that doesn't even rank in the Top 100.

Sure, he's versatile. He's a weapon. He's a threat to go the distance running, receiving, or returning. But so are a lot of players.

Bottom line, he just hasn't lived up to being the 8th overall pick in the draft. He's similar to Cordarrelle Patterson, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Ted Ginn in that regard.

Put another way, the Rams are most likely better off letting him move on and finding someone who will be more productive and cost less money. IMO, it's not worth breaking the bank for a receiver that got 400 yards rushing the football.

Anarchy99 said:

Put another way, the Rams are most likely better off letting him move on and finding someone who will be more productive and cost less money. IMO, it's not worth breaking the bank for a receiver that got 400 yards rushing the football.

Click to expand...

To rush for 400 yards a season you need to average 25 yards a game. Big deal, teams are not ponying up big money for that. 

To put that in perspective in week one of the 2014 season Cordarelle Patterson ran for over 100 yards and a few weeks later was not playing. 

Speaking of Patterson  and finding a comparable player for less cost, they could probably pay him around $2 million a year and he can do everything Tavon can do.

menobrown said:

To rush for 400 yards a season you need to average 25 yards a game. Big deal, teams are not ponying up big money for that. 

To put that in perspective in week one of the 2014 season Cordarelle Patterson ran for over 100 yards and a few weeks later was not playing. 

Speaking of Patterson  and finding a comparable player for less cost, they could probably pay him around $2 million a year and he can do everything Tavon can do.

Click to expand...

I have a harder time dismissing his 10 TDs. How many players at any position had more?

Bob Magaw said:

I have a harder time dismissing his 10 TDs. How many players at any position had more?

Click to expand...

How much is Ted Ginn and his 10 TDs worth?

Anarchy99 said:

How much is Ted Ginn and his 10 TDs worth?

Click to expand...

Franchise tag him!

ETA: Just to negotiate, of course.

Anarchy99 said:

How much is Ted Ginn and his 10 TDs worth?

Click to expand...

Let's break it down.

Gin is 30. One of the most noteworthy things about him is he has 7 return TDs (4 punt, 3 kick) in his nine seasons, which is outstanding. Size, pedigree, quickness, non-traditional WR function-wise, they have a lot of similarities.

Again, Austin is coming off a career high 915/10 (combined yards/TDs) third season in 2015, and is 25. That could alter the value equation, relative to Ginn.

Ginn - His 56 receptions in his soph campaign are the only time he had more than his 44 reception last year, 2 receiving TDs was his high water mark in his first half dozen seasons, three each in MIA and SF. Never rushed for more than 68 yards, had 2 TDs in his second 2008 season (none in his other eight seasons), looks like he has missed about nine regular season games in nine years, so fairly durable.

2007) MIA - 423/3

2008) MIA - 863/4

2009) MIA - 502/3

Ginn took three seasons to amass 10 TDs, which Austin did in 2015 alone

2010) SF - 174/2

2011) SF - 288/2

2012) SF - 8/0 (fair to say he didn't seem very involved that year, started 0/13 games, 2 receptions with 1 yard, 1 rush for 7 yards, one of his lesser efforts as a season)

2013) CAR - 585/5

2014) ARI - 196/1

Up to this point probably has a lot to do with Ginn's current valuation, such as it is (Austin had as many TDs in 2015 as Ginn did in the half decade from 2010-2014 combined)

2015) CAR - 799/10

Since Austin did more in his third season than Ginn did at any point in his first eight seasons (in terms of combined yardage/TDs), and he is 25, and Ginn is 30, not sure that is an apples to apples comparison. I could see why Austin would have more perceived unfulfilled potential, and therefore value.

To somewhat rephrase the question, is there ANY number of combined TDs by Austin you WOULD find impressive (as I gather 10 doesn't check that box for you), that you would concur is atypical and even rare, a valuable playmaker worth extending - if so, how would you state it? 12? 15? 17? 20? Don't assume anything weird (or at least not weirder than usual) such as he is inexplicably converted to an exclusively short yardage back and scores 16 TDs on 16 one yard rushes but has no other rush or receptions stats in that hypothetical season.  

menobrown said:

To rush for 400 yards a season you need to average 25 yards a game. Big deal, teams are not ponying up big money for that. 

To put that in perspective in week one of the 2014 season Cordarelle Patterson ran for over 100 yards and a few weeks later was not playing. 

Speaking of Patterson  and finding a comparable player for less cost, they could probably pay him around $2 million a year and he can do everything Tavon can do.

Click to expand...

It isn't 400 rushing yards in a vacuum, if it is incrementally additive to what he does as a WR. Hypothetically, if he has more WR upside than you are accounting for, and starts having seasons with 800 receiving yards and maintains that 400 rushing yards (and gets an uptick to 12-15 TDs with improved OC and usage, OL and possibly QB in the future), compared to other WRs that have 800 receiving yards and no rushing yards (and maybe 5-7 TDs), Austin would have 50% more combined yardage (and maybe 2-3 X more TDs), a fairly significant difference. Small numbers like "just 25 yards per game" COULD add up to the difference between 800 and 1,200 combined yards. If he starts getting 800 receiving yards, what kind of WR rushing yards ON TOP OF THAT WOULD teams pony up big money for? 500 yards? 600 rushing yards? 700 rushing yards? Or would we just divide those larger numbers by 16, and still characterize the increment as "just" whatever the new amount is (albeit larger).

Or put it in terms of combined TDs as a kind of playmaker co-efficient. What level would impress you? 12? 15? 17? 20? Could you quantify it?

Than we can either check before, or after, how many other payers have done THAT. And how much did they make, how were they valued?  

Patterson is relative, if they used him like a WR that was used MORE (because that's what I'm about, Teddy Broosevelt), he would probably do more?? But we could say the same about Austin, if they use him more, he could do more, too, it works both ways. I used to think Patterson was great, maybe he still is, hard to say when he can't get on the field and several years intervals go by with little to no production. The arrow is pointed up for Austin in a way that it would be impossible to say in the same way for Patterson, his career arc and trajectory at this point fall into the faceplant, nodedive, death spiral category, maybe he can come out of it. Some GMs might employ some of the same type of upside potential outlook I've advocated with Austin, who knows? I find how Patterson's career has unfolded thus far very disturbing, it could reflect poorly on him, I'm not as confident projecting future success for him as Austin.

I would bet a large amount of money that Austin does not get 10+ TDs in 2016. Certainly not if he gets the same kind of workload he did in 2015. Don't chase last year's production.

I understand that last year was more recent, but the two years before that Austin did not score anywhere near as often (or produce as many yards). Looking at the past three seasons combined, Austin ranked tied for 50th in rushing and receiving TDs. 

I'm still trying to wrap my head around this (and the other) thread on Austin. Where on the pantheon of current receivers should Austin be slotted, pay scale or performance wise? Should he even be considered in the Top 50 WR?

Anarchy99 said:

I understand that last year was more recent, but the two years before that Austin did not score anywhere near as often (or produce as many yards). Looking at the past three seasons combined, Austin ranked tied for 50th in rushing and receiving TDs. 

I'm still trying to wrap my head around this (and the other) thread on Austin. Where on the pantheon of current receivers should Austin be slotted, pay scale or performance wise? Should he even be considered in the Top 50 WR?

Click to expand...

Either at, or a notch above Devin Hester in his prime. That's probably in the top 50.

Doesn't strictly fit the criteria, but Neon "Prime Time" Sanders was a playmaker, and one of the best I've seen in the open field, also one of the fastest un/official (?) 40s ever, I think.

#3 Top 10 Fastest NFL Players doc (NFL Films)
[www.youtube.com]
 

Bob Magaw said:

Doesn't strictly fit the criteria, but Neon "Prime Time" Sanders was a playmaker, and one of the best I've seen in the open field, also one of the fastest un/official (?) 40s ever, I think.

#3 Top 10 Fastest NFL Players doc (NFL Films)
[www.youtube.com]
 

Click to expand...

at comparing Austin to Deion.

In the WR rushing for 400 and/or 4 TDs context, Lenny Moore satisfied that criteria. 

Also, I inexplicably forgot about former Olympic sprinter (one of the greatest intersections of NFL and Olympic medalist, along with Jim Thorpe and "Bullet" Bob Hayes), 6 X Pro Bowler and HOFer Matson, the Rams once traded *NINE* players for him in 1958. He was an alumnus of USF (Univ. of San Francisco), I think graduating just before Bill Russell played basketball there, where the coach became the first in NCAA history to start three AAs, including Russell's future Celtics teammate K.C. Jones, winning two national Championships. Matson's USF team was denied a Bowl appearance almost certainly due to racial discrimination. He won the Bronze medal in the 400 and silver in the 4 X 400 relay at Helsinki '52 (in which the great distance runner Emil Zatopek become the first/only runner to ever win the 5,000 m., 10,000 m. and Marathon [[his first]] in the same Olympics). Matson's 12,799 all-purpose yards were second only to Jim Brown in league history when he retired in 1966. The Matson trade was one of the biggest in league history (by player count), the triggerman was Rams GM and future NFL commish Pete Rozelle, who was also a USF alum.

The Ollie Matson trade, 55 years later

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/02/28/the-ollie-matson-trade-55-years-later/

Matson's PFR seasonal breakdown with positional designations, because he is an interesting case study in these tweeners, and POSSIBLE example of fitting my criteria.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MatsOl00.htm

He was mostly listed at what we would now call RB for the early part of his career, although it sounds like he was often DEPLOYED like a flanker. Guess that is like when Faulk, Westbrook or Bush lined up wide, they weren't re-categorized on the fly as a WR on a play-to-play basis, obviously. It would be interesting to know what percentage of the time he lined up at RB and flanker. In 1964 in PHI, his third to last season, there is no positional designation info (actually absent from '62, his last year with the Rams, to '65, he was listed as a flanker in 1960 & 1961, for the only two times in his career, at least by the PFR profile for which that data is listed) - he had 404 rushing yards and 4 TDs.

* For the more literal minded, not saying Austin = Matson. Just trying to determine how rare what he did in 2015 is.

Matson and Moore were similar to Marshall Faulk. They were running backs who sometimes aligned out wide. All three technically were wide receivers- at times. Tavon Austin, on the other hand, is a wide receiver who occasionally gets rushing attempts. 

Thanks for the input, appreciated. Yeah, I was just looking for anybody that met the criteria initially, but good point that in general, Matson and Moore shouldn't be invoked as comps for stat production expectation purposes.

To expand on your distinction, I think Faulk was always officially designated as a RB. Moore is listed at PFR (under individual season breakdown with position designation info)  variously as a RB, and Flanker in others. Same with Bobby Mitchell (though, unlike Moore, he didn't fit the criteria in terms of meeting it AS A WR in WAS, he was previously a RB for CLE). Same with Ollie Matson. Matson was a case of, two years where he showed up with positional designation of Flanker, but there is a several year gap after that with no info? So not sure if he fits the criteria?

I don't think with Mitchell it is that ambiguous when he was a RB and when he was a WR, or THAT he was both a RB and WR at different times in his career, as far as official positional designation (again, unlike Faulk in at least that respect, who, as far as I know and without referencing, was always designated a RB). As to Matson and Moore, they were before my time. I didn't personally vet the PFR historical position designation info by year? If you are saying Matson and Moore never played Flanker OFFICIALLY and in actuality for entire seasons (where did they line up the majority of the time in a given season, did they run routes like a RB or a WR, etc.), like Mitchell seems to have, I don't know. I'm open to that being a possibility that Matson and Moore were *REALLY* RBs and predominantly used like RBs, not Flankers, regardless of what the historical positional designation info suggests. If so, that would make Austin's rushing production in 2015 (which it awaits to be seen if it ultimately represents a one off, flukey outlier stat never to be repeated, or signaling a substantive difference in usage and reflection of rare open field skills) even more unprecedented. Not in itself a guarantee that it will translate to overall excellence, but for me a possible indicator that differences in 2015 rushing usage leading directly to a career best season, might cause the OC to go with what worked so well last year. But because there haven't been a lot of cases like him, virtually no precedent to fall back on for next season data, for WR rushing stats that fit the thread criteria.  

Rams exercise 2017 options on Tavon Austin, Alec Ogletree


Posted by Josh Alper on May 2, 2016, 2:33 PM EDT
The Rams had two first-round picks in 2013 and they would like to hold onto both players through the 2017 season.

Ian Rapoport of NFL Media reports that the Rams have exercised fifth-year options on both wide receiver Tavon Austin and linebacker Alec Ogletree. Both options are guaranteed against injury only and both players are free to sign a longer deal with the team at any point.

Austin, who was the eighth overall pick in 2013, will make over $12 million under the terms of the option. He’s played in 44 games for the Rams over the last three years and set career highs with 52 catches, 473 receiving yards and five receiving touchdowns last season. Austin also ran 52 times for 434 yards and four touchdowns and ran his streak of seasons with a punt return touchdown to three.

The Rams likely hope Austin’s impact as a receiver continues to rise now that they’ve added Jared Goff at quarterback and they could revisit Austin’s option down the line if that’s not the case.

Ogletree was the 30th overall pick and is in line to make $6.7 million in 2017 under the option. He’s been a starter since joining the Rams, but missed 12 games last season with a broken leg. He’s expected back in the lineup this season and will be spending more time in the middle with James Laurinaitis out of the picture.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________


Rams pick up fifth-year options on Tavon Austin, Alec Ogletree


http://espn.go.com/blog/st-louis-rams/post/_/id/28996/rams-pick-up-fifth-year-options-on-tavon-austin-alec-ogletree

LOS ANGELES -- One was a sure thing. The other was a bit more complicated. But in the end, the Los Angeles Rams decided to pick up the fifth-year option on both of their 2013 first-round draft picks, linebacker Alec Ogletree and receiver Tavon Austin, a league source confirmed Monday.

The deadline to pick up the options, which ensure that 2013 first-round picks will remain under team control through the 2017 season, was Monday afternoon.

For the Rams, exercising the option on Ogletree was a no-brainer given the relatively low cost of the option and his performance to this point in his career. The decision on Austin was more difficult because, as a top-10 pick, his fifth-year option is more expensive and his production thus far hasn't been commensurate to that price.

It's also worth noting that the fifth-year options are only guaranteed for injury so players with options picked up now could theoretically be released before the start of the next league year when the money becomes guaranteed.

As the No. 30 overall pick in his class, Ogletree is only due the average of the third-through-25th highest salaries at his position. That means Ogletree would be due $8.369 million for the 2017 season. That's a high price but not an outrageous one for a player who led the team in tackles his first two seasons and was an early Pro Bowl candidate before suffering a season ending injury in Week 4 last season.

This year, Ogletree is moving to middle linebacker, where he'll have a chance to become more of a team leader and focal point for coordinator Gregg Williams' group. And, of course, just because the Rams exercised his option doesn't mean they won't try to get a contract extension done with him before he'd play under it.

The Rams and Ogletree's representatives have had some conversations to that end this offseason. Getting a contract extension done with Austin would actually make even more sense than it would for Ogletree, since it would prevent the Rams from having to pay a premium that Austin's numbers wouldn't normally yield.

Since Austin went No. 8 overall in the 2013 draft, he would cost the average of the top-10 receivers in the NFL (or the same as the transition tag), according to NFL rules. For frame of reference, the transition-tag price for a receiver this year was $12.268 million. Barring a major breakout in 2016, that is well above what Austin's production (to this point in his career) should garner.

But a league source said last week that the Rams were "leaning toward" exercising Austin's option with the idea of securing his services and hammering out a contract in the meantime. That would be the plan now that the option has been picked up.

At February's combine, general manager Les Snead said the Rams would like to keep Austin in the fold.

"What he brings to the table as a weapon on offense and what our coaches can do... and we’ve hired a couple of new coaches and they come in to the building with excitement because of what they think he can do to help your team," Snead said. "And also on special teams. He’s a valuable piece. He’s an offensive weapon so we’ll try to figure [that] out. He’s somebody we want for the future."

Either way, the Rams have made a point of drafting and developing their own players and now they find themselves needing to keep those players around for the long-term.

"We would like to do that," Snead said. "You know the philosophy is to draft, develop and re-sign your own core group of guys. So there’s some guys following this class that we’d like to get done as well over the next few months."

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

ESPN LA Rams beat reporter Nick Wagoner twitter feed (dated last Saturday)

https://twitter.com/nwagoner?lang=en

Nick Wagoner ‏@nwagoner Apr 30


Rams are leaning toward picking up Austin’s option but with the intent to sign him to an extension before he’d play under it.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Austin fun fact: on his record setting 3 TD game against IND in his rookie season

http://www.footballperspective.com/tavon-austins-record-setting-day/

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Against Oklahoma his 572 All Purpose Yards (also a West Virginia school record 344 rushing yards and 2 TDs) just 6 short of the FBS record

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxzPryPMB74

Austin could get the ball in significantly higher volume going forward

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/06/01/jeff-fisher-could-see-tavon-austin-catching-100-passes-this-year/ 

Bob Magaw said:

Austin could get the ball in significantly higher volume going forward

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/06/01/jeff-fisher-could-see-tavon-austin-catching-100-passes-this-year/ 

Click to expand...

 So let me get this right.  The Rams draft two TE's, two WR's, only lost Cook and Quick should be healthier and somehow Tavon is going to double his catches despite the added competition? This is mainly because NFL teams just caught on that this Gurley guy might be good and will now try and gameplan to stop him.  I guess Jeff thinks this is different from last year where he must have concluded that NFL teams were not paying attention to Gurley as they were focused with trying to control all of the other Rams weapons.  Gotcha.