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PK Roberto Aguayo - chronic case of the yips

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FSU K Roberto Aguayo would love to stay local and kick for the Bucs.

 
Beginning about mid-Day 2, the subplot of where Aguayo will get taken will be worth watching. NFL Media draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah believes Aguayo will get drafted no later than the end of Rd. 3. Jeremiah's colleague Lance Zierlein compares the three-time All-American to Graham Gano.
 
 
Apr 22 - 7:22 PM

 

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I'm all for the importance of a kicker being worth a decent mid-round pick, but the problem is it seems like most of the top kickers end up being guys that come from relative obscurity.  These stud college kickers often wind up with decent NFL careers but are rarely the difference makers like Hauschka/Gostowski/Tucker.

Who are the last great big name college kickers to get drafted in the first 3 rounds?  Seabass, Nugent, Kaeding, Gramatica, etc.  Some good solid careers in there, but those guys are replaceable by any of several dozen random no-name kickers that seem to emerge every year.

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11 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I'm all for the importance of a kicker being worth a decent mid-round pick, but the problem is it seems like most of the top kickers end up being guys that come from relative obscurity.  These stud college kickers often wind up with decent NFL careers but are rarely the difference makers like Hauschka/Gostowski/Tucker.

Who are the last great big name college kickers to get drafted in the first 3 rounds?  Seabass, Nugent, Kaeding, Gramatica, etc.  Some good solid careers in there, but those guys are replaceable by any of several dozen random no-name kickers that seem to emerge every year.

I think it's more that kickers wear out/regress to the mean quicker than most.  There were times early in their career that Seabass and Grammatica did feel like legitimate NFL and FF difference makers, the way Gostkowski does now.  They just lost that edge quickly.

Seabass is an edge case...he's hung on so long that he's been a just-above-replacement kicker for a long time.  But that's all on the "downside" of his career arc.

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11 minutes ago, Arodin said:

I think it's more that kickers wear out/regress to the mean quicker than most. 

Power falls off as you age. If you're a kicker like Seabass whose claim to fame is your cannon leg ... well then, once that stops being elite, you can become replaceable pretty quickly.

On the other hand if you're elite on accuracy, even when the power starts to go you'll have a job as long as you want one (neither Vinatieri or Dawson have enough leg to even handle kickoffs any more, but they're still booting FGs at 40+). It's only "regression to the mean" if what you're regressing in is what made you elite in the first place.

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With the extra point backing up again this year I understand the reasoning behind the pick. 

An ultra accurate kicker is going to be an advantage, and the Bucs were awful last year. Missed FG's and XP's cost them at least 3 games. 

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Another PT Barnum thread.

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The accuracy factor is not so impressive to me in that like QBs the pressure will be much greater in the NFL. Does Aguayo have a particularly strong leg? Extra distance on kicks seems like something worth drafting a kicker for, at 50+ yards out adding an extra 10 yards to an offense seems worth it. Does Aguayo bring that?

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I know it was a long time ago now but I think John Lee no. 32 pick in 86 or so for the Rams makes for an interesting comparison. Never missed an XP in 4 years in college, his FG% actually improved every year, actually led the nation in kicking one year, and he had a very similar high career accuracy (85%). Not sure what happened to him but he missed 3 XPs in a half season and his NFL career was over. Obviously Aguayo is not necessarily that but I don't think accuracy automatically translates to the NFL.

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If there was ever a year for us to draft a high kicker, this was it.  Brenza was terrible last season, and single handedly lost us 2-3 games.  I liked Barth, but they must not see him as a long term answer.  Vet contracts for kickers also make teams spend more on the position than they want to.  Also, he comes from an in-state program.  Bucs fans love when they draft gators/Noles.

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11 minutes ago, Quez said:

If there was ever a year for us to draft a high kicker, this was it.  Brenza was terrible last season, and single handedly lost us 2-3 games.  I liked Barth, but they must not see him as a long term answer.  Vet contracts for kickers also make teams spend more on the position than they want to.  Also, he comes from an in-state program.  Bucs fans love when they draft gators/Noles.

Didn't the Bucs trade a pick for Brenza too?

In all fairness he helped the Bucs win the game in the Dome, he was really good there IIRC.

Edited by SaintsInDome2006

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For the Bucs to trade up, they must have thought another team was going to take him.  Maybe Saints?  Didn't they have a bad kicking situation this year?

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4 minutes ago, Quez said:

For the Bucs to trade up, they must have thought another team was going to take him.  Maybe Saints?  Didn't they have a bad kicking situation this year?

They had serious kicker woes last year, it cost them maybe 2 games including TB IIRC, made some bad decisions but they seem to have a plan now with Forbath and Scobee competing.

I would have been good with a later kicker pick last year, but they had a ton of picks. I think they're standing with 5 picks right now so there's no room for luxury selections or reaches.

Edited by SaintsInDome2006
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An NFL general manager told Bleacher Report's Mike Freeman that the Buccaneers' selection of Florida State K Roberto Aguayo at No. 59 overall pick was "the dumbest pick in the history of the draft."

 

In trading third- and fourth-round picks to move up into the end of Round 2 to take a kicker, Tampa Bay drew heavy criticism from Freeman's sources. Not everyone disagreed with the thinking, however. One scout, for instance, said that recent rule changes have made kickers more valuable, further arguing that they will be as valuable as running backs within a few years. The Bucs, who played in 10 games last year decided by 10 points or less, clearly believe Aguayo (69-of-78 on field goals and 198-of-198 on extra points in college) can become a difference-maker in close games.
 
 
May 1 - 2:59 PM

 

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Read from one NFL exec that it was the stupidest pick in the history of the draft. 

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Taking a kicker that high is ... trading up to take a kicker that high is ... ... ...  here's to hoping he is awesome for many years

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I just keep hearing Quint's line from Jaws when I think about Jason Licht's move up to take Aguayo. 

"He's either very smart or very dumb."

Hopefully Goodell doesn't change his mind on these new kicking rules.

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On ‎4‎/‎30‎/‎2016 at 4:08 PM, Quez said:

If there was ever a year for us to draft a high kicker, this was it.  Brenza was terrible last season, and single handedly lost us 2-3 games.

If only there was some other way to acquire a kicker.

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39 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

If only there was some other way to acquire a kicker.

Tampa's front office is the butt of a lot of jokes lately for this pick.

I just posted in the Bucs' thread regarding Bill Belichick and the Patriots.  If NE had made this pick they'd be praised in the media for being so adaptive to the new kicking rules and forward in their thinking.  They've taken Ryan Mallett and Jimmy Garoppolo with early picks and were heralded as geniuses.  How many snaps did those guys ever take for NE? 

Aguayo is going to effect the outcome of a lot of games for the Bucs.  They made 72.5% of their kicks in 2015.  I guess they were tired of the undrafted free agent kicker strategy? 

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44 minutes ago, Grahamburn said:

Tampa's front office is the butt of a lot of jokes lately for this pick.

I just posted in the Bucs' thread regarding Bill Belichick and the Patriots.  If NE had made this pick they'd be praised in the media for being so adaptive to the new kicking rules and forward in their thinking.  They've taken Ryan Mallett and Jimmy Garoppolo with early picks and were heralded as geniuses.  How many snaps did those guys ever take for NE? 

Aguayo is going to effect the outcome of a lot of games for the Bucs.  They made 72.5% of their kicks in 2015.  I guess they were tired of the undrafted free agent kicker strategy? 

The Jets (my team) took a kicker in Round 2, Mike Nugent, a few years back and were the butt of jokes as well. They deserved it as Nugent was no better than any other kicker that was rotated in before and after his stint. At least they didn't trade up and waster extra picks to draft him.

I don't see how New England drafting backup QBs is applicable in anyway.

 

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7 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

The Jets (my team) took a kicker in Round 2, Mike Nugent, a few years back and were the butt of jokes as well. They deserved it as Nugent was no better than any other kicker that was rotated in before and after his stint. At least they didn't trade up and waster extra picks to draft him.

I don't see how New England drafting backup QBs is applicable in anyway.

 

It's just an extremely interesting selection to me.  The Bucs had to know they were going to get a ton of blowback for this and they still did it.  I'm trying to justify it as a fan and also understand what they may be thinking.  It took some moxie for Licht to stick to his guns and trade up for this kid in the face of certain ridicule.

I referenced NE simply because of the stigma in the media toward a winning franchise versus a losing one.  If NE makes that pick they get the benefit of the doubt and are likely lauded for being so much more evolved in their thinking than other franchises.

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I'm not necessarily opposed to the pick.  A TON of games are decided by 7 points are less.  Making or missing 1-2 long FGs per game can easily be the difference between winning and losing (of course, as long as the Bucs aren't getting blown out by 30+ points, which does happen :bag:).  The critical question becomes the relative value of this guy vs. some other K drafted later in the draft or not drafted, especially in comparison to a defender or skill position player they may have otherwise taken.  The Bucs have a lot of holes still on both sides of the ball.  To pass up a second round talent at D or O to take a K, that K has got to be a LOT better than an undrafted FA K.  

That being said, if this guy DOES perform a good % higher than an undrafted FA then he could absolutely be worth the pick.  Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

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Bucs second-round K Roberto Aguayo has never kicked in temperatures colder than 50 degrees.

 

Naturally, Aguayo doesn't believe it will be an issue. He certainly plays in the right division for a kicker who has never suited up in the cold. Aguayo also defended his selection in the second round, saying he believes kickers are going to eventually "change the game," whatever that means. Deadly accurate inside 40 yards, Aguayo wasn't quite as successful from longer distances in the ACC, but there's little reason to believe he won't be a highly-effective player in 2016.

 

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feel like i got away with murder drafting this guy at 4.02 in rookie draft.  Almost jumped on him with 3.02 pick but gambled he'd fall.  mission accomplished.  Should be a 10+ year stud PK in a high octane offense.

Edited by ILUVBEER99

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One of the most interesting picks of the draft.

I don't have a problem with taking a kicker earlier given the new rules but to justify a 2nd that kicker has to become a perennial Pro-Bowler. There's just not much upside at the price TB paid, and a lot of downside.

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12 hours ago, ILUVBEER99 said:

feel like i got away with murder drafting this guy at 4.02 in rookie draft.  Almost jumped on him with 3.02 pick but gambled he'd fall.  mission accomplished.  Should be a 10+ year stud PK in a high octane offense.

I'm 6 drafts in and he has not yet been drafted in any of them. Sorry to burst your bubble but you didn't get away with anything..

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1 hour ago, jeaton6 said:
13 hours ago, ILUVBEER99 said:

feel like i got away with murder drafting this guy at 4.02 in rookie draft.  Almost jumped on him with 3.02 pick but gambled he'd fall.  mission accomplished.  Should be a 10+ year stud PK in a high octane offense.

I'm 6 drafts in and he has not yet been drafted in any of them. Sorry to burst your bubble but you didn't get away with anything..

Maybe depends on the league.  I may agree if it's uncapped and he's truly a 10+ year guy.  But all my leagues have contract year caps so he's not a 10+ year guy, you can't burn more than 2-3 years (out of 100) on a kicker so a lot of that value goes out the window.  10+ years of one kicker would save a lot of waiver/RFA $ though.

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23 hours ago, ILUVBEER99 said:

feel like i got away with murder drafting this guy at 4.02 in rookie draft.  Almost jumped on him with 3.02 pick but gambled he'd fall.  mission accomplished.  Should be a 10+ year stud PK in a high octane offense.

So who'd you pick at 3.02?

Diamond in the rough long-snapper?

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Just now, spider321 said:

So who'd you pick at 3.02?

Diamond in the rough long-snapper?

Malcolm Mitchell.  If he wouldn't have been there would have taken Big A.  I see how much teams have been helped by Goskowski, it makes a difference to have a stud kicker to plug in every week...every year.

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Draft results from the ongoing SSL3 survivor league in the Mock Drafts forum:

Roberto Aguayo: 13.07 (PK8)
Justin Tucker: 13.11 (PK10)

And these are redraft leagues!

The Aguayo hype is already out of control.

 

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25 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

Draft results from the ongoing SSL3 survivor league in the Mock Drafts forum:

Roberto Aguayo: 13.07 (PK8)
Justin Tucker: 13.11 (PK10)

And these are redraft leagues!

The Aguayo hype is already out of control.

 

PK8 seems fairly reasonable for him.  The question is why Tucker is all the way down at #10.

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On 5/14/2016 at 6:50 PM, ILUVBEER99 said:

I see how much teams have been helped by Goskowski, it makes a difference to have a stud kicker to plug in every week...every year.

If you knew you were getting Gostowski then that would be true, the problem is that these early drafted guys don't usually turn out to be that.  10 years of Janikowski or Mike Nugent is not so alluring, and those are the last two kickers to go in the 1st or 2nd round of the NFL draft.

Edited by FreeBaGeL

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Never thought we would be talking about kicker hype! Unbelievable. I grabbed him just because he was drafted so early. I hope he changes kicking as we know it!!!! 

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On ‎5‎/‎14‎/‎2016 at 8:50 PM, ILUVBEER99 said:

Malcolm Mitchell.  If he wouldn't have been there would have taken Big A.  I see how much teams have been helped by Goskowski, it makes a difference to have a stud kicker to plug in every week...every year.

There's no such thing as a stud fantasy kicker, only fantasy kickers that are in stud offenses,

Edited by spider321

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9 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

If you knew you were getting Gostowski then that would be true, the problem is that these early drafted guys don't usually turn out to be that.  10 years of Janikowski or Mike Nugent is not so alluring, and those are the last two kickers to go in the 1st or 2nd round of the NFL draft.

Yes, but Tampa looks to becoming a high scoring offense

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He went in the 4th round of all three rookie drafts.  12, 16, and 16 man full IDP leagues.  In two of them the owner traded up to draft him.

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4 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

He went in the 4th round of all three rookie drafts.  12, 16, and 16 man full IDP leagues.  In two of them the owner traded up to draft him.

Jason Licht in these leagues?

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11 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

He went in the 4th round of all three rookie drafts.  12, 16, and 16 man full IDP leagues.  In two of them the owner traded up to draft him.

Clearly those owners were just looking for attention. 7 leagues. Drafted zero times now.

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Or kickers could be more valuable in those leagues? 

Those owners may be thinking the same things the Bucs were/are: Ultra accurate kicker, up and coming offense, rule changes placing a premium on kicking. All of which lead to maximizing points, and at the end of the day that's what ultimately matters. 

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On Saturday, May 14, 2016 at 8:50 PM, ILUVBEER99 said:

Malcolm Mitchell.  If he wouldn't have been there would have taken Big A.  I see how much teams have been helped by Goskowski, it makes a difference to have a stud kicker to plug in every week...every year.

and he's going to be a stud kicker?

It's not just the kicker himself that determines that. Kicking points are also a function of the team's offense and defense, as well as other factors (weather, gams situations, etc.).

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On May 18, 2016 at 10:18 PM, Grahamburn said:

Or kickers could be more valuable in those leagues? 

Those owners may be thinking the same things the Bucs were/are: Ultra accurate kicker, up and coming offense, rule changes placing a premium on kicking. All of which lead to maximizing points, and at the end of the day that's what ultimately matters. 

Well sure that could be possible but I haven't seen anyone come on here yet to defend that POV.

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