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Breakouts, Sleepers, Busts (1 Viewer)

M

Matt's Eagles

Footballguy
It may be a a little early.....But pick 1 at each position..

QB

Breakout. Tannenhill

Sleeper Osweiler

Bust Cousins

RB

Breakout Hyde

Sleeper Morris

Bust  CJA

WR

Breakout Moncrief

Sleeper Sammie Coates

Busts Tate

TE

Breakout Ebron

Sleeper Walford

Busts ASJ

 
QB

Breakout: D. Carr

Sleeper: J. Garappolo

Bust: T.Taylor

RB

Breakout: A. Abdullah

Sleeper: L. Dunbar

Bust: C. Ivory

WR

Breakout: S. Diggs

Sleeper: K. Bell

Bust: M. Jones

TE

Breakout: D. Allen

Sleeper: L. Willson

Bust: C.Fleener

 
Sleeper:TE Julius Thomas. 

Bortles should improve and he should work the center of the field nicely. I'm not singing his name yet and I may change my mind once I get a chance to watch his snaps from last year. 

 
QB

Breakout: Mariota 

Sleeper: Flacco 

Bust:  Stafford

RB

Breakout: Hyde

Sleeper: Richardson :bag:

Bust: miller (relative to adp)

WR

Breakout: wallace and k wright

Sleeper: Enunwa

Bust: Tate

TE

Breakout: Ebron

Sleeper:  Heuerman , cook

Bust: Ertz 

Out of the sleepers, Flacco is the only one I'd draft in 12 (or less) team leagues. The others will be decent in larger leagues.  

 
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Breakouts:  Tannehill, Melvin Gordon, Stefon Diggs, Ladarius Green

Sleepers:  Alex Smith, Jeremy Hill, Jeff Janis, Vance McDonald

Busts:  Carson Palmer, Devonte Freeman, Nuk Hopkins (not bust but won't live up to ADP or repeat last year; still a WR1 though), Jordan Reed 

 
Breakouts - Ladarius Green, Hyde, Lockett, ASJ

Sleepers - Vance McDonald, Tevin Coleman, Justin Hardy

Busts - Melvin Gordon, D. Freeman, Ebron

 
Breakouts - Ladarius Green, Hyde, Lockett, ASJ

Sleepers - Vance McDonald, Tevin Coleman, Justin Hardy

Busts - Melvin Gordon, D. Freeman, Ebron

 
Is this the thread where we list our young players who haven't done anything yet?  If so, put me down for DeAndre Smelter.  

 
Yeah I only own a few of the players I listed. Why don't you go troll your fake retirement thread.

 
Top of my head:

Breakouts: D. Parker, Elliot, Ebron, Cousins

Sleepers: Sanu, Forsett, D Allen, Tyrod

Busts: Hopkins, Rawls, Eiffert, Bortles

For me, breakouts are guys who are going to become weekly must starts in 10-12 team league, sleepers are guys being undervalued that could provide production a tier or two above adp , busts are disappointments that will produce a tier or 2 below adp.

 
I saw people list Cousins and Tyrod as busts. I'm not sure how we can consider them busts given current ADP.

Ty and Cousins are QBs 17 and 20 in ADP. You think they are going to perform worse than low level fantasy backups/platoon level options? 

Ditto for Ebron. He's TE14. He was TE13 last year. I don't see how anyone can view him as a bust in anything except a 2TE league or in terms of overall value compared to what he was drafted for in a dynasty league.

 
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QB Breakout.....Mariota

.     Sleeper.......Taylor

.      Bust.......Cousins

RB Breakout......Hill

.     Sleeper.......Duke Johnson

.     Bust.......Freeman

WR Breakout.....Evans

.      Sleeper......Coates

.      Bust......D. Thomas

TE Breakout.....ASJ

     Sleeper......Walford

     Bust.......Graham

 
Ilov80s said:
I saw people list Cousins and Tyrod as busts. I'm not sure how we can consider them busts given current ADP.

Ty and Cousins are QBs 17 and 20 in ADP. You think they are going to perform worse than low level fantasy backups/platoon level options? 

Ditto for Ebron. He's TE14. He was TE13 last year. I don't see how anyone can view him as a bust in anything except a 2TE league or in terms of overall value compared to what he was drafted for in a dynasty league.
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I think QB17 is Tyrod's ceiling and I won't be surprised if he's on the bench by mid season.

 
Breakouts: Marvin Jones, Dwayne Allen, Thomas Rawls

Sleepers: Randall Cobb, Jordan Cameron, Buck Allen

Busts: Emanuel Sanders, Greg Olsen, Carlos Hyde

Jones is not Megatron but will be a low WR1-high WR2. Cobb will be as well, which is a deal for where I'm seeing him drafted, and SF is a dumpster fire for Hyde. I like him, but not there.

 
Ilov80s said:
In a 2QB or 16 team league, that could be a bust. Shocked you would see him as being so bad. Based on what?
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From what I've read, the Bill's brass don't seem sold on him.

Last year he finished qb17 with guys like Big Ben, Ryan, Luck, Flacco, Marriota, and Cutler behind him.  I personally would prefer any of those guys to Tyrod.

 
Breakout- bortles

sleeper- dalton (perennially underrated)

bust- brees

breakout- cja

sleeper- foster

bust- Ajayi (bell also got consideration)

breakout- evans

sleeper- wallace

bust- brown (love Antonio, dancing with the stars hangover, why not)

breakout-kelce

sleeper- ebron

bust- Ladarius 

 
petekrum said:
     Bust.......Graham
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I found myself agreeing with almost everything you listed except this one.  Do you expect good adp to rise? His current value already factors in the injury; he was the 16th TE taken in pdsl1.

 
opensourcebeer said:
From what I've read, the Bill's brass don't seem sold on him.

Last year he finished qb17 with guys like Big Ben, Ryan, Luck, Flacco, Marriota, and Cutler behind him.  I personally would prefer any of those guys to Tyrod.
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Hard to imagine the Bills can find a better option than Tyrod. Taylor's the best running threat at QB in the NFL and was 8th in QB rating last year. In my fantasy league he was 16th in ppg. The difference between Tyrod and QB10 was 0.4 ppg. Tyrod performed on par with low end QB1s. As a real NFL QB, he was very good. I would be shocked if someone drafts him as the 16th QB off the board and he significantly underperforms (barring injury which his playing style would lend itself to). 

 
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QB: 

Breakout:. Tannehill

Sleeper:  Romo

Bust:  Stafford

RB:

Breakout:  Ajayi

Sleeper:  Lacy

Bust:  Charles

WR:

Breakout:    Parker

Sleeper:   Agholor

Bust:   Alshon

TE:

Breakout:. Cook

Sleeper:  Vance McDonald

Bust:  Olsen

 
Breakout - Mariota, Elliot (will match the hype), Hunter (yep Justin Hunter), Walford

Sleeper - Dalton, K Williams, Wallace, Cameron

Bust - Brady, Miller, Marshall, L Green

 
What makes you think Hunter could breakout?   He has given no indications of anything at all thus far other than draft pedigree.  

 
Qb

Breakout - Tannehill

Sleeper - Bradford

Bust - Bortles

Rb

Breakout - Hyde

Sleeper - Melvin Gordon

Bust - Peterson

Wr

Breakout - Watkins

Sleeper - DGB

Bust - Marshall

Te

Breakout - Green

Sleeper - Allen

Bust - Eifert

 
Breakout:  Winston, Hyde, Diggs, Walford

Sleeper:  Bradford, Duke Johnson, Crowder, Vance

Bust: Dalton, Rawls, Marvin Jones, Cook

 
Sabertooth said:
What makes you think Hunter could breakout?   He has given no indications of anything at all thus far other than draft pedigree.  
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Physical freak, great young QB, hopefully '4TE set Wisenhunt' leaving will open the door for some of their talent. TEN has the most talented WR corp conpared to production. To me that screams coaching/system. 

 
mr roboto said:
Physical freak, great young QB, hopefully '4TE set Wisenhunt' leaving will open the door for some of their talent. TEN has the most talented WR corp conpared to production. To me that screams coaching/system. 
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Good answer.  I don't have a ton of faith in DGB to be honest but somebody is going to spike.  

 
I chose 10 spots as the required rise/fall for Breakout, Sleeper, and Busts.

Based on Mike Clay's 2016 fantasy football rankings.

http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/14472239/mike-clay-2016-fantasy-football-rankings-nfl

QB

  • Breakout: Bortles
  • Sleeper: Carr
  • Bust: Newton (I think he get's injured/his reckless play catches up with him)
RB

  • Breakout: Lacy (a re-breakout if you will)
  • Sleeper: Yeldon
  • Bust: David Johnson (I don't trust Arians)
WR

  • Breakout: Cooper (Had a solid year last year, busts out for a much better season)
  • Sleeper: Mike Evans (ranked 19th, I think could be top 5 at the end of the year)
  • Busts: Brandon Marshall (Ranked 11th, I think could fall drastically especially if Fitz is gone)
TE

  • Breakout: ASJ
  • Sleeper: Ebron
  • Busts: Ertz
 
Sleeper- any colt, they will all probably be underdrafted after a down year and can boom back with a healthy luck.

bust- any colt, in the event luck comes back less than healthy or gets murdered behind that line again.

 
I know it is early, but people need to take current or expected ADP into account. For example, a guy going QB20+ can't really qualify as a bust.

Here's my shot, taking ADP into account and sharing the logic behind the picks:

QB:

Breakout: Tannehill - not many options here and Adam Gase worked wonders for Cutler.

Sleeper: Brock - again, not many options but BOB did pretty well with Hoyer last year, so Brock should be in a position to succeed.

Bust: Bortles - won't live up to his ADP (QB4??) due to the new emphasis on running the ball. Also concerned about Brady's age (QB7).

WR:

Breakout: Michael Floyd - after starting off slow due to missing the preseason, he had five 100 yard games in a seven game span from week 8 - 16. Also, Fitzgerald will be 33.

Sleeper: Wallace - long after the luster has worn off, he's finally paired with a QB who is willing to throw deep and very little competition for targets.

Bust: Landry - saw him go WR11 in PDSL1. There's a good chance Adam Gase decides not to volume feed the short, slow slot guy. It took 167 targets to reach 1159/4 last year.

RB:

Breakout: Hyde - I really struggled to find someone to name here, but given how little he has done and the opportunity he now has, if he does anything with it at all, it'll be a breakout.

Sleeper: Khiry - I liked Morris here, too, but wanted to deviate. I think Forte is done as a runner and Powell isn't very good in that role. Khiry will reward the patient owner when the Jets get tired of Forte's 3.4 ypc by mid-season at the latest.

Bust: Peterson - he's already 31 and coming off a 382 touch season. Tempted to put Rawls here due to crazy high expectations for an UDFA with only 6 games with any notable volume.

TE:

Breakout: Fleener - this is a super lazy pick but I hadn't seen it yet. Not enamored with his talent, but this is the #1 situation for a TE.

Sleeper: Cook - I just nabbed him at TE20 in PDSL1. Not sure how long I could've waited. He seems very similar in size/talent/ability to Finley (FWIW: I never thought Finley was all that talented, but playing with Rodgers elevates everyone).

Bust: Reed - TE3 is more than a little high for a guy who couldn't beat out Niles Paul in training camp. Add his injury history into the equation and you've got a very risky draft pick.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
You don't trust one of the best offensive minds in the game?
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He thought it was a better idea to use Chris Johnson all season. 

He loves Vets over young players in general, and is addicted to throwing the deep ball.  I could see DJ being the top overall RB this year, but I took a risk and said that I think he'll be a bust (aka not top 12 since he was ranked #2).  Also, we saw him do well with limited touches this year, but we've never seen him sustain over a full season.  There's reason to be very excited, but there's also questions. 

Also, as a huge Steelers fan I've seen Arians' game planning get stale and repetitive.  I've also seen how his "Throw deep all the time" mantra can destroy a QB through sacks (see Ben and Carson's injury history under Arians).  I wouldn't be shocked if Carson is done by week 7 after being hit again and again.  That's why Arians was let go and Haley was brought in to keep Ben upright through quick passing.

 
QB

Breakout, Bortles, overall numbers might regress, but i like him to take care of the ball more this year and get a few more W's

Sleeper, Mariota, improved run game and OL will help him be more consistent

Bust, Flacco, being set up to fail by adding 1,000 terrible Te's and no Wr (to this point) that will matter

RB

Breakout, Miller, hes gonna slay in Hou

Sleeper, Gio, contract year

Bust, MG3, O Line junk, fumble issues, couldnt stay on the field last year even on a losing squad for development reasons youd think they would want him out there

WR

Breakout, Parker, not high on tanny, but i dont think Landrys presence is a negative for Parker, I think they will garner more 1v1's for themselves, if so watch out

Sleeper, Hurns, in that offense I believe there could be 2 FF WR1's, even if he doesnt get there, he is still a super under rated wr2

Busts, KB, I expect him to be good still, but I expect his production to be low compared to his ADP

TE

Breakout, Green, hard not to like his situation

Sleeper, Walford

Bust, Kelce, a stud yes, but criminally under utilized every year, hes a top TE talent wise for sure but we may never see his true ceiling with Reid

 
steelers1080 said:
He thought it was a better idea to use Chris Johnson all season. 

He loves Vets over young players in general, and is addicted to throwing the deep ball.  I could see DJ being the top overall RB this year, but I took a risk and said that I think he'll be a bust (aka not top 12 since he was ranked #2).  Also, we saw him do well with limited touches this year, but we've never seen him sustain over a full season.  There's reason to be very excited, but there's also questions. 

Also, as a huge Steelers fan I've seen Arians' game planning get stale and repetitive.  I've also seen how his "Throw deep all the time" mantra can destroy a QB through sacks (see Ben and Carson's injury history under Arians).  I wouldn't be shocked if Carson is done by week 7 after being hit again and again.  That's why Arians was let go and Haley was brought in to keep Ben upright through quick passing.
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He's talked up David all offseason so far so I don't see why he'd shift back to Chris at 31 years of age.

The other points you now listed make sense (whether you think Johnson will bust or not), but I just found the Arians comment strange. I see him as a plus.

 
QB: 

Breakout:. Tannehill

Sleeper:    Osweiler

Bust:          Eli

RB:

Breakout:  Ingram

Sleeper:    M.Jones

Bust:         Bell

WR:

Breakout:  Parker

Sleeper:   Tyrell Williams

Bust:         Marshall

TE:

Breakout:. Cameron

Sleeper:    Jesse James

Bust:          D. Walker

 
Dr. Octopus said:
You don't trust one of the best offensive minds in the game?
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Arians rb usage, as in commitment to one guy, has been spotty . Johnson has looked better than any hes had, but it's like mike shanahan- you know a rb will put up great numbers, you just don't know who it will be. So I can see the distrust of Arians in that sense. The offense will move as long as they aren't playing their qb4-5 again.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
He's talked up David all offseason so far so I don't see why he'd shift back to Chris at 31 years of age.

The other points you now listed make sense (whether you think Johnson will bust or not), but I just found the Arians comment strange. I see him as a plus.
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Mostly it's probably bitterness that he didn't use him more last year because I could have used a couple more wins and was 2-3 pts short several weeks.

Damn you Bruce!!!

 
Dr. Octopus said:
He's talked up David all offseason so far so I don't see why he'd shift back to Chris at 31 years of age.

The other points you now listed make sense (whether you think Johnson will bust or not), but I just found the Arians comment strange. I see him as a plus.
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Seems more likely that they work a 3-dog game more than revert to Chris.  DJ is a fantastic player, especially as a receiving back, but he didn't seem all that great between the tackles from what I recall.

 
FUBAR said:
Seems more likely that they work a 3-dog game more than revert to Chris.  DJ is a fantastic player, especially as a receiving back, but he didn't seem all that great between the tackles from what I recall.
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Yeah that was the consensus coming into the league. He put those concerns to rest though. Small sample but he was as good as any RB in the league last year. 

 
Milkman said:
Yeah that was the consensus coming into the league. He put those concerns to rest though. Small sample but he was as good as any RB in the league last year. 
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he did? He had 3 nice weeks against below average defenses. Otherwise he did nothing. 

I'm not saying he can't be effective but running between the tackles is not his strong point.  Meanwhile CJ and Ellington can be used and save his wear and tear some.  It's worth considering, even if you still take DJ in the 1st round.  ETA: okay, he did net 60 yards on the ground against the Panthers but IIRC most of that was not between the tackles. 

 
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FUBAR said:
he did? He had 3 nice weeks against below average defenses. Otherwise he did nothing. 

I'm not saying he can't be effective but running between the tackles is not his strong point.  Meanwhile CJ and Ellington can be used and save his wear and tear some.  It's worth considering, even if you still take DJ in the 1st round.  ETA: okay, he did net 60 yards on the ground against the Panthers but IIRC most of that was not between the tackles. 
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Yeah he was great between the tackles. 

 
Breakout: Mariota, Da Johnson, Moncrief, Ebron

Sleeper: RG III, Artis-Payne, Kevin White, Maxx Will 

Bust: Winston, Freeman, De Thomas, Barnidge

 
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