What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Stefon Diggs WR undervalued (By Bloom and Harmon) (1 Viewer)

jacobo_moses

jacobo_moses

Footballguy
I contend that Diggs WR in Dyn leagues is being undervalued in leagues. Matt Harmon and Bloom I think are too. (Both have Diggs around 40) Id put Diggs in the top 25/28. And here is why. 

1) Put up incredibly impressive rookie #s considering the following:

5th Rnd pick who didn't even play the first 3 weeks of season.

Run first offense built to rely on AP and a strong Defense. 

Teddy is getting a little better but still needs some work. I watched some of Diggs biggest plays on film and he had to adjust to some bad throws a lot. 

Someone make a case where I'm wrong? But I think the kid is still going to improve, AP won't last too much longer, and Bridgewater will continue to improve. 

Enjoy this article on him. 

EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. - After a strong rookie season, it would have been easy for Stefon Diggs to rattle off his accomplishments.But the Vikings wide receiver isn't satisfied. And he's not about to start boasting now."I'm just scratching the surface," Diggs said earlier this week from the team's Winter Park headquarters. "I'm still young and got a lot of time to grow."A 2015 fifth-round pick out of Maryland, Diggs turned in one of the most impressive rookie seasons in franchise history.He led the Vikings in catches (52) and yards (720) and finished second on the team with four touchdown catches.After being inactive for the first three games of the season, Diggs hauled in six catches for 87 yards his NFL debut against Denver on Oct. 4.
 



Photos: Players Say Goodbyes, Clear Out Lockers


Diggs then became the first Vikings rookie since Randy Moss to record back-to-back 100-yard games with performances against Kansas City and Detroit.Diggs, whose 720 receiving yards were second in the NFL among rookies, said he took away plenty of lessons from his first season.
 


"I learned some stuff on the field that I'm going to work on when I'm gone," Diggs said. "When I come back, you'll see the progress."As one of a handful of rookies who made an impact, Diggs said he's looking for even bigger things in 2016."We have lots of guys who can play," said Diggs, who earned Pepsi Rookie of the Week honors for his Week 6 performance against the Chiefs. "As you saw all year, lots of young guys stepped up and played at a high level. I respect the guys and appreciate them. We're going to get on our grind in the offseason and be better next year."

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Thought this was cool too. 

13 games as a rookie, Stefon Diggs had 52 receptions for 720 yards and 4 touchdowns. Statistically, he had a better first season than Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall, Jordy Nelson, Alshon Jeffery, and Michael Irvin (and almost identical to Calvin Johnson), to name a few. He received effusive praise from teammates and Mike Zimmer all year, and made numerous highlight plays.

 
Once AP retires(or gets hurt), Bridgewater will be allowed to take snaps from his preferred shotgun formation.

Then, the Vikes' passing numbers will greatly increase.

 
In some ways you may have answered your own question by saying that he plays for a run-first offense and has a QB that is still questionable...if you believe that than you have a legit reason to rank him lower than his actual talent...

 
I agree.  He's not going to put up volume numbers in this offense.  Mike Zimmer wants to rely on AD and the defense with Teddy being a much more than capable secondary contributor.   I don't like Diggs to really take off this season.  I like him more as an NFL asset than a fantasy one.  He's just not in the right situation to see volume.  Stick him on New England and he's catching 90 balls I bet though.  

I like that he simply climbed the depth chart and didn't slow until he got to the top.  They didn't have a great depth chart but Charles Johnson was a darling last spring and summer, Patterson is an athletic marvel, Wallace is a seasoned vet.  Diggs just blew by all of them.  That's a great sign.   Being a Packers fan, it reminds me of how Greg Jennings, and later Randall Cobb, just came in and planted their flags.  The other players don't matter to a great player.  Diggs looks like a great one.  I just don't see this turning into a high volume passing offense, and that simply depresses Diggs' ability to crush the stat line.  

 
There's room for one WR to be a stud on any offense, even this one.  If he's truly that good he'll get the targets.  I'm very concerned about the overall volume of the passing game, it can't support multiple fantasy producers or make TBW a viable QB1, but Diggs alone can easily flourish.  The only concern I have is if they get a rookie that turns out to be studly too.  A split that's anywhere close to near-even crushed all hopes.

 
Post Charles Johnson hangover? I think people are afraid diggs will disappear in favor of someone else, especially if minny drafts a wr in rd 1, the way cj did. I'd be happy if I were a diggs owner, but I'm not paying to acquire him. Maybe after the draft....

 
The Vikings offense over the first two seasons with Norv Turner and Mike Zimmer have been different because of Peterson missing most of 2014.

2014 981 plays 517 passing attempts (52.7%) 413 rushing attempts (42.1%) 51 sacks (5.2%) sack per attempt 9% 32.3 pass attempts per game 
2015 973 plays 454 passing attempts (46.7%) 474 rushing attempts (48.7%) 45 sacks (4.6%) sack per attempt 9% 28.4 pass attempts per game

With Peterson the Vikings threw the ball 6% less than they did the previous season while running the ball 6.6% more. Overall sacks went down but stayed at .09 sacks per attempt passing attempts went down by 3 per game while rushing attempts increased by four per game.

Teddy Bridgewater

2014 13 games 402 pass attempts 31 pa/game 2919 yards 225 yards per game 7.3 yards per attempt 39 sacks (8.8% per attempt) 249 yards 3168 receiver yards
2015 16 games 447 pass attempts 28 pas/game 3231 yards 202 yards per game 7.2 yards per attempt 44 sacks (9% per attempt)307 yards 3538 receiver yards

The yards per attempt remained about the same as did the sack percentage. If the Vikings let Bridgewater throw the ball 31-32 times a game (similar to 2014) he could have about 500 passing attempts, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Vikings have a similarly high run to pass ratio as 2015. 

So 450-500 passing attempts

Stefon Diggs

2015 13 games 84 targets 6.5 targets per game 52 receptions 720 yards 13.8 yards per reception 4 TD 23% of pass attempts

Over 16 games at 6.5 targets per game would be 103 targets over 16 games this would have been 23% of Bridgewaters 447 pass attempts.

So if everything stays somewhat the same Diggs should be looking at 103 targets. If Bridgewater has 500 passing attempts this could mean Diggs sees 115 targets based on the 23% share.

I do think the upside is there for Diggs to be a WR 2 in fantasy off of 100-115 targets

Hopefully the Vikings add a WR who is better than Diggs. If that happens it would limit his long term  upside as well.

The Vikings have added free agent competition at most of their positions of need except for WR. It is very likely the Vikings select a WR in the 1st round of the 2016 draft and it is possible they draft multiple WR from this draft.

From recent mock draft ADP Diggs is being drafted at 60 overall.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Thanks for the math bb, that is a reasonable estimate. Buying diggs is like buying Langford, you can see a nice role but it may not be hard to find a more talented guy to steal that role away. 

 
If I were making a list of sell highs, Diggs might be the first name on it.

There is absolutely nothing (NCAA perf, measurables, draft position, result of NFL catches) that suggests he's an elite prospect.  Strongly suspect he's a guy who benefited from getting #1 WR volume last year, but won't be able to hold onto that role very long.

 
wdcrob said:
If I were making a list of sell highs, Diggs might be the first name on it.

There is absolutely nothing (NCAA perf, measurables, draft position, result of NFL catches) that suggests he's an elite prospect.  Strongly suspect he's a guy who benefited from getting #1 WR volume last year, but won't be able to hold onto that role very long.
Click to expand...
He was the #1 ranked WR coming out of high school and I see nothing negative in either his measurables or play last year to make me think he can't be elite.I mean his measurables are not elite, but not bad either.

I think he's a legit #1 WR and agree he's greatly undervalued. Reminds me a ton of Amari and Brown, I think he's a future 100 reception player but my expectations are not huge next year but think the whole offense opens up when AP leaves or fades which I'm guessing is the 2017 season.

 
He certainly wouldn't be the first guy to have a short stretch of good games and then disappear.

Diggs went over 50 yards receiving in only 2 of his last 10 games and only caught a TD in one of them.  Even those two games over 50 yards weren't very good (6-66 and 3-55, granted with 2 touchdowns).

 
jacobo_moses said:
I contend that Diggs WR in Dyn leagues is being undervalued in leagues. Matt Harmon and Bloom I think are too. (Both have Diggs around 40) Id put Diggs in the top 25/28. And here is why. 

1) Put up incredibly impressive rookie #s considering the following:

5th Rnd pick who didn't even play the first 3 weeks of season.

Run first offense built to rely on AP and a strong Defense. 

Teddy is getting a little better but still needs some work. I watched some of Diggs biggest plays on film and he had to adjust to some bad throws a lot. 

Someone make a case where I'm wrong? But I think the kid is still going to improve, AP won't last too much longer, and Bridgewater will continue to improve.
Click to expand...
I'd rather have Dorsett, Lockett, Perriman, Funchess, Green-Beckham, or Hurns.

The fact that Diggs is a 5th rounder is a reason for pessimism, not a reason for optimism. Sure, his rookie season was especially impressive for a 5th rounder, but we don't grade on a curve. The question is whether he will have a good NFL career, not whether he'll have a good NFL career for a 5th rounder. And a 1st rounder who had a season like Diggs's rookie year would have better prospects than Diggs does. Being a 5th round pick rather than a 1st or 2nd round pick starts out as a negative and always remains a negative - over time it becomes increasingly irrelevant but it never flips over into being a positive.

Diggs had a pretty good rookie year which counts in his favor, but it wasn't nearly as good as Hurns's sophomore season and I don't think it was good enough to leapfrog most of the initially-more-promising receivers in his draft class. A lot of receivers have had similarly okay rookie years (or better) and then not amounted to much (Donnie Avery, Greg Little, Chris Givens, Terrance Williams, ...).

 
He didn't really have a good rookie "year".  More like a good month of October (and the first day of November).

 
I like Diggs quite a bit as well. Pithy barbs aside, he did better than anyone expected this year. I would say Diggs didn't get the bulk of targets that other WR1s got, as Minnesota was 3rd in run/pass ratio, running the ball 51% of the time, on a lower number of plays. When AP eventually moves on, or his efficiency wanes, that will correct itself closer to league averages. I think Maryland definitely hurt Diggs' production in college, namely in his final season their move to the Big 10. The team was badly out manned in a stronger conference and a seemingly streaky player can go ice cold in such conditions. His freshman year with Maryland was good though, and probably the reason Minnesota took a chance in the first place.

It would make sense for the Viking to take a WR in the first this year. Seems like Doctson unless someone takes him ahead of them. I would be taking that opportunity to buy Diggs, because I think that division of labor at WR would help both parties. Diggs will never be a primary red zone target, but he is efficient per touch and quite the route runner. And, he'd still be the younger receiver of the duo by over a year. By year 2 Doctson will be seeing more targets than Diggs but AP will be 32. I'd want a top 6 pick to trade away Diggs at the moment, because I would want a player the NFL put a 1st round grade on. Otherwise, I don't think I'd be increasing my odds of success by taking a day 2 with no log of NFL production. If I went from say, Diggs to an Agholor or Dorsett, I would be quite upset. 

 
ZWK said:
I'd rather have Dorsett, Lockett, Perriman, Funchess, Green-Beckham, or Hurns.

The fact that Diggs is a 5th rounder is a reason for pessimism, not a reason for optimism. Sure, his rookie season was especially impressive for a 5th rounder, but we don't grade on a curve. The question is whether he will have a good NFL career, not whether he'll have a good NFL career for a 5th rounder. And a 1st rounder who had a season like Diggs's rookie year would have better prospects than Diggs does. Being a 5th round pick rather than a 1st or 2nd round pick starts out as a negative and always remains a negative - over time it becomes increasingly irrelevant but it never flips over into being a positive.

Diggs had a pretty good rookie year which counts in his favor, but it wasn't nearly as good as Hurns's sophomore season and I don't think it was good enough to leapfrog most of the initially-more-promising receivers in his draft class. A lot of receivers have had similarly okay rookie years (or better) and then not amounted to much (Donnie Avery, Greg Little, Chris Givens, Terrance Williams, ...).
Click to expand...
This argument means nothing to me due to the fact the Antonio Brown was a 6th Rnd pick and Martavis Bryant was a 4th Rnd pick. It is neither a positive or a negative. Wrs fall all the time in the draft because, Supply and Demand that yr, small school so lower competition (like Antonio Brown) or offense they were in like (Diggs). So where they were drafted correlates only very little to how successful of a career we can project they will have.  Brown and Diggs just prove you can be drafted low and make a big impact in the NFL. And WR like Latimer DEN drafted in the 2nd rnd just prove u can be a let down somewhat quickly if you don't live up to it based on draft spot. 

I think I made this sound more complicated then it is. 

;)

 
2 for 22.

2 for 12.

4 for 19.

1 for 8.

Those were four of his final five weeks' production.  The other was a pedestrian 3 for 55, offset by two TD catches for a respectable fantasy output.

But I can't get excited by somene, even a rookie, who is his team's primary receiving weapon and posts a steady diet of numbers like that while his team is in a playoff push.

He's young and raw and developing, so I would love to take a flyer with him, but I dont see anything there that goves me confidence he's on an Antonio Brown-like track, or anything close.

 
And those saying drafted a top WR in the draft is a bad thing for Diggs. I disagree to some extent. Maybe for yr 1. But as AP declines and TB progresses (you dont draft your QB that high to be a game manager, unless your the Rams this yr LOL) I see having good talent on the other side as a positive. Less double teams. Which the biggest strike a lot of people had said against him was he needs to learn to fight through double teams better if he wants to be a true #1

 
Arodin said:
2 for 22.

2 for 12.

4 for 19.

1 for 8.

Those were four of his final five weeks' production.  The other was a pedestrian 3 for 55, offset by two TD catches for a respectable fantasy output.

But I can't get excited by somene, even a rookie, who is his team's primary receiving weapon and posts a steady diet of numbers like that while his team is in a playoff push.

He's young and raw and developing, so I would love to take a flyer with him, but I dont see anything there that goves me confidence he's on an Antonio Brown-like track, or anything close.
Click to expand...
You realize he was being doubled more at that point from big games before?  And didnt play the 1st 3 weeks of the season and was still learning. And when it gets colder in Nov, and Dec you run and use AP even more. So less passing opp. All these things add up. So I'm willing to overlook those #s for now. If it happens again in yr2 and yr3 I think you might have something. 

Let's be honest about Teddy. He is still developing too. Some of the off games and off throws is a reflection on TB. We can't put all that on Diggs. 

 
Seems like a lot of people are taking some digs on him. Yes, he's got some improving to do in order to become elite. But over the course of the season, Diggs dug his heels in and became their #1 WR.

Don't dig his grave just because his end of the year numbers dropped. Diggs has the talent and the opportunity to take the jump in year 2 and 3. Drafting a WR in the 1st likely will not dig into his targets, but more likely Mike Wallace and Jarius Wright (combined 130 targets). Also dig this, Bridgewater only threw to his WRs 249 times, compared to Carson Palmer targeting WRs 413 times. There is room to grow in this offense. APs aging combined with Teddy's development will lead to more targets in general. 

I, for one, dig Diggs. 

 
mikel2014 said:
Seems like a lot of people are taking some digs on him. Yes, he's got some improving to do in order to become elite. But over the course of the season, Diggs dug his heels in and became their #1 WR.

Don't dig his grave just because his end of the year numbers dropped. Diggs has the talent and the opportunity to take the jump in year 2 and 3. Drafting a WR in the 1st likely will not dig into his targets, but more likely Mike Wallace and Jarius Wright (combined 130 targets). Also dig this, Bridgewater only threw to his WRs 249 times, compared to Carson Palmer targeting WRs 413 times. There is room to grow in this offense. APs aging combined with Teddy's development will lead to more targets in general. 

I, for one, dig Diggs. 
Click to expand...
His end of the year numbers didn't drop.  His last 3/4 of the year numbers dropped.

3-42-0

2-46-0

6-66-0

4-31-0

2-22-0

2-12-0

3-55-2

4-19-0

1-8-0

4-26-0

 
mikel2014 said:
Seems like a lot of people are taking some digs on him. Yes, he's got some improving to do in order to become elite. But over the course of the season, Diggs dug his heels in and became their #1 WR.

Don't dig his grave just because his end of the year numbers dropped. Diggs has the talent and the opportunity to take the jump in year 2 and 3. Drafting a WR in the 1st likely will not dig into his targets, but more likely Mike Wallace and Jarius Wright (combined 130 targets). Also dig this, Bridgewater only threw to his WRs 249 times, compared to Carson Palmer targeting WRs 413 times. There is room to grow in this offense. APs aging combined with Teddy's development will lead to more targets in general. 

I, for one, dig Diggs. 
Click to expand...
What are you looking at to claim he became their number 1 wr?  His target and yardage numbers certainly dont paint that picture.

 
menobrown said:
Huh? He led the team in targets and yards and was not even active the first 3 weeks?
Click to expand...
Looking game by game at the last few weeks of the season, he is finishing anywhere from 1st to 4th in targets, and 1st to 7th(!) in yardage.  His stat lines arent appreciably different from the likes of Adam Theilen and Jarius Wright.

Yes, his accumulated season numbers are good in a weak offense because he broke out so fast, but his numbers show defenses catching up to him quickly.

 
mikel2014 said:
Seems like a lot of people are taking some digs on him. Yes, he's got some improving to do in order to become elite. But over the course of the season, Diggs dug his heels in and became their #1 WR.

Don't dig his grave just because his end of the year numbers dropped. Diggs has the talent and the opportunity to take the jump in year 2 and 3. Drafting a WR in the 1st likely will not dig into his targets, but more likely Mike Wallace and Jarius Wright (combined 130 targets). Also dig this, Bridgewater only threw to his WRs 249 times, compared to Carson Palmer targeting WRs 413 times. There is room to grow in this offense. APs aging combined with Teddy's development will lead to more targets in general. 

I, for one, dig Diggs. 
Click to expand...
This is spot on. 

 I have zero reason to keep trying to talk him up, I'd just as well let people continue to parse stats based on how he finished and think erroneously that he's Charles Johnson part 2.

For me it's not that complicated. He passed the eye test for me. Those first 4 games he came out of the gate was not a fluke and he sure did not get worse. I think part of his issue may have been the rookie wall but what I know with a 100% degree of confidence is his numbers simply fell due to lag of Teddy throwing. Those first 4 games Teddy attempted over 30 passes which he would only do two more times the entire season in the remaining 9 games. One of those games Diggs was  a solid 6/66 and the other he did next to nothing. 

So I'll let you all parse stats on how he finished when Teddy was not throwing it much, for me I see the #1 WR on the team who put up at least double digit fantasy points in 5 of the 6 games Teddy attempted 30 passes which I think will eventually be more the norm than the exception. 

 
He was clearly their best WR last year, the semantics of the #1 aside..  Diggs needs to be fed consistent targets, something that just wasn't in the cards last season.  As for 2016, I think it's fair to question if he will get the increased workload needed to be an every week starter for fantasy.  There are some reasons to believe they will open it up the passing game some as well.  His range of outcomes is all over the place, so in redraft someone I'll likely avoid, in dynasty I believe he's a strong buy.. I'm sure you could get him for a mid to late 1st in many leagues.

When he starts getting the targets, he'll shine..

2015 Splits (PPR)
>5 Targets (7 Games): 14.17FP / 74.14yds per game
<=5 Targets (6 Games): 8.35FP / 33.5yds per game

Extrapolating his per target yardage and td rate from 2015, with more targets:
100 Targets: 857yds/5td (Safe)
120 Targets: 1028yds/6td (Reasonable Uptick)
140 Targets: 1199yds/7td (Unlikely but reasonable)
160 Targets:  1371yds/7td (Very Unlikely)

His 16 game average from 2015 would of netted him 102 targets, so I think 100 is a pretty safe floor and reasonable to expect closer to 120.   I also believe there is more TD upside with increased workload so his 4.7% TD rate should improve, though he'll never be confused with Dez Bryant in that department.  As far as his talent the only thing he really needs to improve is his physicality with getting off press.  I'm hoping that he's put on some muscle this offseason and he will improve with age.  He won't turn 23 until the end of November. 

 
The issue of if Diggs can become a WR 1 is more than just semantics.

When people are talking about a WR 1 they can be talking about two very different things.

1. The WR is producing enough on a weekly basis to perform as a top 12 WR for fantasy football.

2. The WR is the most productive WR on their team.

These two things are not the same and Diggs is going to face serious competition for the second version of this, which is a prerequisite for the first version of this. The Vikings offense is not going to produce two top 12 WR any time soon.

If Diggs becomes a more consistent part of the offense and maintains his role as the WR in the Vikings offense then he should be capable of producing decent WR 2 ( WR13 to 24) numbers but I do not see the upside for more than that. 

 
Agree with Biabreakable on the semantics and Diggs situation

i just sold a share because I see Min drafting a WR in the first two rounds, which will ding his short term value. Targets are not plentiful in this offense. Teddy may never be a 30 att per game qb because it feels like Min is building a culture of their HC

for me, he passes the eyeball test. He seems like a great kid (which is becoming more of a consideration). And I have no doubt many other teams are kicking themselves for letting him fall to the 5th. But for him to get in the top 24 WRs he will need the 120+ targets, which is at least a year away

 
There are three relevant factors IMO:

  1. Is there reason to believe Diggs will be the Vikings #1 WR next season or in future seasons? IMO that is not likely. It seems that consensus opinion is the Vikings will draft a WR in the first round of this year's draft. I assume that player will be their #1 WR going forward. I would certainly expect that player to get more than the 72 targets the departed Wallace got last season.
  2. How good is Bridgewater? To me, he seems average at best. I don't foresee him ever leading a highly productive passing offense.
  3. How much will passing attempts and production increase going forward as Peterson ages and ultimately retires? This one is hard to say, because we don't know for certain that the team will not seek to replace him (as best they can) and continue with a balanced offense. I think an increase in pass attempts is logical, but hard to predict how much and how soon.
Combine these factors, and Diggs looks like a long term #2 WR with an average to below average QB in an offense that is likely to be below average in passing production for the foreseeable future. IMO ranking him around the #40 WR seems fine, if not charitable. IIRC Bruce Hammond had him at 48 or 49 in his last update, and that is more in line with my thinking.

(FWIW, I pay attention to three FBG dynasty rankers: Bloom, Hammond, and Harstad.)

 
As an experiment here are the 12 players drafted ahead of Diggs and the 12 players drafted after Diggs from April ADP complied by Thrifty.

48. Mark Ingram RB10  49.11 0.69 [39,64]

49. Aaron Rodgers QB3  50.33 -1.42 [29,62]

50. Russell Wilson QB4  50.89 -11.36 [35,68]

51. T.J. Yeldon RB11  52.11 12.86 [36,67]

52. Julian Edelman WR35  52.11 4.86 [41,66]

53. Jordan Reed TE3  53.00 1.33 [45,60]

54. Allen Hurns WR36  54.56 2.72 [42,70]

55. Travis Kelce TE4  55.00 -2.33 [42,64]

56. Carlos Hyde RB12  56.44 -4.89 [38,73]

57. Golden Tate WR37  58.22 4.39 [51,76]

58. C.J. Anderson RB13  59.89 -3.69 [50,75]

59. Adrian Peterson RB14  60.56 5.22 [40,78]

60. Stefon Diggs WR38  61.89 3.39 [48,73]

61. Emmanuel Sanders WR39  62.78 6.44 [48,72]

62. Jamaal Charles RB15  66.11 -1.22 [34,79]

63. Dion Lewis RB16  66.44 -1.97 [40,90]

64. Michael Thomas WR40 R5 67.22 -4.78 [57,81]

65. Melvin Gordon RB17  67.78 3.03 [58,78]

66. Devin Funchess WR41  68.00 -1.67 [47,85]

67. Derrick Henry RB18 R6 68.22 5.22 [52,94]

68. Eric Decker WR42  68.89 4.47 [52,78]

69. Leonte Carroo WR43 R7 69.11 -13.64 [37,88]

70. Jeremy Langford RB19  69.44 -7.31 [53,83]

71. Greg Olsen TE5  69.78 -6.64 [53,88]

72. Sterling Shepard WR44 R8 74.89 2.14 [61,94]

How many of these players do you think Diggs should be drafted ahead of? I don't even like Yeldon much but if I had to I would likely take him ahead of Diggs.Some of these players are old so maybe if you committed to that you pass on more proven players such as Sanders, Tate, Decker, Olsen

I think it is very likely that the Vikings draft Doctson, Treadwell, Coleman or Michael Thomas with the 23rd overall pick. All of those players are being drafted higher than Diggs except for Thomas and I would expect them to earn more targets than Diggs if not in 2016 then by 2017. I suppose the WR the Vikings draft could bust, and that would leave a more clear path to Diggs being the top WR. Or if the Vikings pass on drafting WR in the first two rounds. 

If the pick is Thomas I could see Diggs possibly being better than he is. I am pretty confident in the other 3 being better overall WR (for different reasons).

 
Biabreakable said:
The issue of if Diggs can become a WR 1 is more than just semantics.

When people are talking about a WR 1 they can be talking about two very different things.

1. The WR is producing enough on a weekly basis to perform as a top 12 WR for fantasy football.

2. The WR is the most productive WR on their team.

These two things are not the same and Diggs is going to face serious competition for the second version of this, which is a prerequisite for the first version of this. The Vikings offense is not going to produce two top 12 WR any time soon.

If Diggs becomes a more consistent part of the offense and maintains his role as the WR in the Vikings offense then he should be capable of producing decent WR 2 ( WR13 to 24) numbers but I do not see the upside for more than that. 
Click to expand...
I was referring to Diggs being the #1 on the Vikes last year, alluding to that argument going on.. I don't think he is a WR1 for fantasy purposes.  

He was the most productive WR on their team last season, and put up very startable if not WR1 numbers in games where he was shown the targets.   Which doesn't mean much if he's not consistent, that will require him to improve his ability to beat the press and the Vikes opening up the passing game.   I'm not betting on that for redraft purposes as I said.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Here are the Vikings top 4 receivers over the second half of the season (8 games):

Rudolph: 27/320/2 on 39 targets
Diggs: 24/259/2 on 39 targets
Wright: 22/250/0 on 26 targets
Wallace 12/177/1 on 24 targets

It looks to me like Diggs probably isn't a good enough NFL WR to be successful as his team's primary target who is attracting the most defensive attention. Maybe he'll get better, or maybe he'll manage to carve out a useful fantasy role while serving as his team's #2 WR.

 
I guess what I'm missing at this point is how drafting another top WR in this draft is a bad thing for Diggs? Because it will take def attention away from Diggs. Wouldn't that be a positive for him if he is struggling as a 5th rnd rookie with the extra def attention? Yes his targets will go down. But they will throw more as AP declines the next 1 to 2 yrs.  So that should balance out. 

 
Norv Turner is in the last year of his contract. So it is uncertain what direction the offense may take in 2017 and beyond, when I do not think it will be centered around Peterson any longer at that point. 

Based on Mike Zimmers attitude and philosophy, I can see a run centered approach being part of the long term planning. They could give the job to McKinnon but there will no doubt be another good RB to compete with him after Peterson is gone.

I have seen some instances of them having Teddy run hurry up no huddle, that he has executed very well. With the new offensive coaches at Shurmur (TE coach) and Tony Sparano (offensive line) auditioning for offensive coordinator jobs in the future. Either with the Vikings or with other teams. I think they will have some influence on the offensive scheme this season and obviously moving forward if they are retained or promoted. As Shurmer was no doubt influenced from working with Chip Kelly recently. I do think there is a possibility the Vikings use more up tempo early on in games, then if they establish a lead to be able to run out the clock.

If they do use a lot of hurry up offense, even in just the first half of games, this could have a positive effect on the total number of plays being run, and therefore the volume of passing attempts. The Vikings have been below average in total plays and passing attempts for a pretty long time now. Like Seattle Zimmer may be tempted to keep it that way as long as he can. At the same time Ron Rivera has shown some reluctance to this approach, but still let Cam Newton do it more as part of a way to help him get rhythm and keep the defense off balance. So coaches can change their overall philosophy to get the most out of their players.

Norv Turner could get a new deal if the offense makes progress. There have been rumors of him possibly wanting to retire however. So that may not be an option.

Sparano brought the wildcat to the NFL awhile back. It didn't last long. I could see some exciting plays with Peterson, McKinnon and Patterson all being possible running or receiving threats. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
jacobo_moses said:
I guess what I'm missing at this point is how drafting another top WR in this draft is a bad thing for Diggs? Because it will take def attention away from Diggs.
Click to expand...
The old argument.  Does another WR hurt the first guy because it takes targets away or help him because it takes defensive attention away?

There are two many examples on each side of this to draw any conclusions on it ahead of time.  There's just no way to predict it.  For every guy that was helped by another strong target being added, there was another guy hurt by it.

 
I was doing a lot of reading about hurry up no huddle as a staple part of an offense as a philosophy, in large part because of Chip Kelly but also its widespread usage in college football as well. This was 2012 or so that I am thinking back to in stuff I was reading about it and Ron Rivera's position on it at the time seemed against it based on his comments.

However I tabbed them as a team that might do more of this because Cam Newton seemed to be in favor of it.

Ron RIvera and Cam Newton with the Panthers ran just under 1000 offensive plays from 2011 to 2013. Then the last two seasons they have run 1060 offensive plays. The personnel has been in transition since Steve Smith left but the offense and Cam Newton have found ways to make the offense more productive anyways. I think the read option, how much Newton calls his own number are pretty much the same as they were in previous seasons, so what has caused the change in the total number of plays?

I admit I stopped following the Panthers closely after they drafted Stewart. So perhaps there are other reasons beside the hurry up offense for Carolina being able to run more plays in recent years. I just thought this might be part of that change which shows some consistency for 3 years and then two years of the five with this head coach and QB.

Cam Newtons passing attempts have hovered around 500 for the most part during his career, he would have had 512 attempts in 2014 if he had played in the two games he missed.

Bridgewater has a significantly better career completion percentage (64.9%) than Cam Newton has (59.5%). So if that continues with similar volume, he would be completing 322 of 500 pass attempts. A lot of these targets have gone to the RB and TE as partially contributing to Bridgewaters high completion percentage. That might come down if he is getting it out to the WR more frequently.

 
Solid WR I will be targeting late in every league.  One question I have is why did his numbers tail off last year?

 
jacobo_moses said:
13 games as a rookie, Stefon Diggs had 52 receptions for 720 yards and 4 touchdowns. Statistically, he had a better first season than Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall, Jordy Nelson, Alshon Jeffery, and Michael Irvin (and almost identical to Calvin Johnson), to name a few. He received effusive praise from teammates and Mike Zimmer all year, and made numerous highlight plays.
Click to expand...
Well, not sure about the others but AB was stuck behind Mike Wallace and Hines Ward as a rookie which helped to limit his production.  Stefon Diggs wasn't really behind anyone so he got more of a chance to shine.  Yes, he technically was behind Mike Wallace also, but comparing 2010 Mike Wallace to 2015 Mike Wallace is ridiculous.

As a MD fan I got to see plenty of the greatness in Diggs, but also got to see him get injured over, and over, and over.  I like him a lot as a player, but I think injuries will limit his upside long term.  He doesn't have the sturdy frame of a Julio or Marshall.

 
I love Diggs but he's not a true number 1 WR and Teddy isn't a volume or downfield passer. I have written elsewhere on this board that the MN will offense will get unshackled after AP is gone but even then it won't be Diggs IMO. 

 
Gandalf said:
Solid WR I will be targeting late in every league.  One question I have is why did his numbers tail off last year?
Click to expand...
He played what might have been the toughest schedule for WRs last season. All of his productive games came against easier opponents (poor WR defenses). I think he will continue to be matchup dependent. 

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I think you missed his point entirely.
Click to expand...
What was the original point?  That a first rounder has a higher chance at having more upside than a 5th rounder?  Genuinely unclear and want some clarification.

Also, arguing that 2 other late rounders had success so Diggs could too is flawed.  Especially since the Steelers (both of your examples) have been shown to be very good evaluators of WR talent in recent years and have a much better QB.

Diggs probably should have been a 3rd rounder talent-wise, but he still has less upside than Perriman, Kevin White, and Dorsett (players yet to prove themselves).  He's gotten off to a fast start since his team had little WR talent.

 
steelers1080 said:
What was the original point?  That a first rounder has a higher chance at having more upside than a 5th rounder?  Genuinely unclear and want some clarification.

Also, arguing that 2 other late rounders had success so Diggs could too is flawed.  Especially since the Steelers (both of your examples) have been shown to be very good evaluators of WR talent in recent years and have a much better QB.

Diggs probably should have been a 3rd rounder talent-wise, but he still has less upside than Perriman, Kevin White, and Dorsett (players yet to prove themselves).  He's gotten off to a fast start since his team had little WR talent.
Click to expand...
jacobo had said originally that "Diggs had a good rookie season for a 5th round pick" and ZWK pointed out that being a 5th round pick doesn't help make his rookie season numbers any more impressive (in the context of being predictive) and how in the long run being a 5th round pick is more of a negative than a positive.

I think that was the point that was "missed".

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
He played what might have been the toughest schedule for WRs last season. All of his productive games came against easier opponents (poor WR defenses). I think he will continue to be matchup dependent. 
Click to expand...
Two of his better games came against Denver and KC who were 1st and 9th in pass defense respectively. Detroit finished 15th and Slay actually played decent last season which was an improvement. The Bears actually finished fourth in passing defense somehow and the Packers were sixth. Seattle, Arizona and Green Bay were top 10 pass defenses that Diggs did not do well against. However his other game against the Packers he had 6 catches for 66 yards and the Denver plus KC games balances that out.

I don't think he is match up dependent when a lot of WR get shut down by Seattle and the Cardinals corners.

What does concern me is that Diggs seemed to slow down after four solid weeks of breaking out. Did defenses figure him out? He was somewhat of a surprise to Denver and KC was struggling up to the point where the Vikings played them before going on a winning streak.

Why did his performance fall off so much after those first four weeks?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Biabreakable said:
Two of his better games came against Denver and KC who were 1st and 9th in pass defense respectively. Detroit finished 15th and Slay actually played decent last season which was an improvement. The Bears actually finished fourth in passing defense somehow and the Packers were sixth. Seattle, Arizona and Green Bay were top 10 pass defenses that Diggs did not do well against. However his other game against the Packers he had 6 catches for 66 yards and the Denver plus KC games balances that out.

I don't think he is match up dependent when a lot of WR get shut down by Seattle and the Cardinals corners.

What does concern me is that Diggs seemed to slow down after four solid weeks of breaking out. Did defenses figure him out? He was somewhat of a surprise to Denver and KC was struggling up to the point where the Vikings played them before going on a winning streak.

Why did his performance fall off so much after those first four weeks?
Click to expand...
KC was ranked in the bottom 5 against WRs when they played. Of course everyone uses different resources to measure these things. 

 
Just double checked and KC finished year ranked 24th in points against for WRs.  Like I said, everyone uses a different source for these things and the source I use has always been more reliable than others (imo).  I played the matchup game with Diggs last year and it worked perfectly.

 
jacobo_moses said:
Well I feel sheepish in my Dynasty league trading Golden Tate for Diggs and JPP DE NYG!
Click to expand...
You never know. Tate could sail or fail as the new top dog/ split top dog with Marvin.  Diggs showed that he could be very effective, but like everyone else has echoed he will suffer from being in a run first, run second, pass third offense.

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
Just double checked and KC finished year ranked 24th in points against for WRs.  Like I said, everyone uses a different source for these things and the source I use has always been more reliable than others (imo).  I played the matchup game with Diggs last year and it worked perfectly.
Click to expand...
Yeah KC had not been playing very well and there was only the Denver game for them to look at in regards to Diggs with the Vikings at that time also. Obviously Peters got better as the season wore on and KC went on a winning streak. Still he made some big plays in that game against man coverage. I think he was targeted against Smith more often than Peters IIRC and they were doing a lot of run blitzing forcing the man to man.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

K
My offseason partial rebuild moves. Long, sorry.
Replies
3
Views
570
eighsse2
eighsse2
Soulfly3
Not undervalued - The most disrespected player is?
2 3
Replies
115
Views
2K
BobbyLayne
BobbyLayne
ignatiusjreilly
What are the best/worst draft slots for 2023?
Replies
3
Views
769
ignatiusjreilly
ignatiusjreilly

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Top