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RB Kenyan Drake, LV (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter elguapo07
- Start date
Seems odd that this came out July 26 and doesn’t mention the first team reps for ballage.
TripleThreat
Footballguy
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Was intrigued by Drake's upside, but the more that comes out of camp, the more this seems - barring injury to either back -- likely to be a full-on RBBC.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Raptors409
Footballguy
He should be a nice value in PPR leagues. Caught 53 passes for 477 yards last year.
That’s 100 points on the season right there. Good for 6.25 points a game and that’s excluding all things rushing and any touchdowns he might score.
He’s averaged 0.3125 touchdowns per game in his career so that puts him at about 5 touchdowns on the season.
Puts him at a floor of about 130 points or 8.125 points per game excluding rushing. Would only take about 30-40 rushing yards at about 9-10 rushes a game to crack 11-12 ppg in PPR.
His value has always been as a pass catcher, imo. Him losing carries to Ballage doesn’t really hurt that much as that’s never where he was scoring you points. He never eclipsed 640 rushing yards in a season.
If the offense struggles as you believe, should be a lot of garbage time checkdowns against prevent defense.
Think he’s a good buy low because people will overreact to him splitting carries even though his bread and butter pass catching role should be in-tact.
He’s not going to win you a championship but he’s a great RB3 / FLEX in PPR leagues. Should be able to hold down the fort until something better comes around.
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FWIW, NFL Network had him listed as the projected starter during their live look in to training camp. Talked a lot about how dynamic he is and how he should be the centerpiece of the offense. Barely mentioned Ballage. At the end of the day, he finished RB15 last year with the same type of role. Think poor man's James White.
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BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Solid work here
His ADP is right it should be. You’re basically choosing between him, Cohen, Coleman or Murray for your Flex/RB3. I’m leaning towards the best offense (Saints) but his ADP is climbing so might not work out.
Elevencents
Footballguy
100% agree with Raptors. All the talk of splitting carries is actually a good thing because it drops his ADP but doesn’t change his production much because the foundation of his numbers will come from receptions. And the receptions should be there because the Dolphins will likely be down near the end of most games and will look to move the ball quickly which usually means dump offs.
In my league he finished as RB 13 with FIVE games where he had double digit carries. His highest was 14. With Ballage back there there’s no reason to believe he won’t have the same amount of carries - hell, he may even surpass his carries from last year.
On average he is going in the 10th round on mocks via Draft Dominator. That’s top 15 production in the 10th round. I don’t know of any player that even sniffs the top 20 in the 10th round. He’s going around guys like Manny Sanders, Gallup, Sanu, et al. If you go WR/WR you can finish out the first 10 rounds with something like Fournette, Jones, Carson and Drake. RB4 with top 20 upside. Yes please.
In my league he finished as RB 13 with FIVE games where he had double digit carries. His highest was 14. With Ballage back there there’s no reason to believe he won’t have the same amount of carries - hell, he may even surpass his carries from last year.
On average he is going in the 10th round on mocks via Draft Dominator. That’s top 15 production in the 10th round. I don’t know of any player that even sniffs the top 20 in the 10th round. He’s going around guys like Manny Sanders, Gallup, Sanu, et al. If you go WR/WR you can finish out the first 10 rounds with something like Fournette, Jones, Carson and Drake. RB4 with top 20 upside. Yes please.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Elevencents
Footballguy
Might be some sample size issues there unless you’re a robot mocking a few hundred drafts a day.
I agree with the consensus here. Let the Ballage hype build, then grab Drake later. He’ll catch a bunch of balls when the Phins are down 28-10 in the 4th. Should be a nice ppr addition.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Things change depending on which site you use for your draft, different default rankings you know. In MFL10s, I've done a bunch of them, Drake's never gone later than the 7th; and that was right after Ballage got first team reps in TC. Usually he is gone by the 6th.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Consistent 5th-6th rounder across the three sites I’m using this summer. I’ve done about 150 mocks.
Elevencents
Footballguy
I am in an IDP league so that skews things from the norm.
Except those other guys you listed as going near Drake aren’t in IDP either. I’d abandon your expectations of getting Drake around Gallup, Sanu, Manny Sanders.
No K, no D, no IDP for either:
League 1 (1ppr): Drake (44), Gallup (150), Sanu (159), Sanders (142)
League 2 (0.5ppr): Drake (67), Gallup (160), Sanu (170), Sanders (127)
Not super high on Drake, but he has a decent amount of upside for a 6th round RB, tends to go around Cohen and White. Those players are ~8 rounds later.
League 1 (1ppr): Drake (44), Gallup (150), Sanu (159), Sanders (142)
League 2 (0.5ppr): Drake (67), Gallup (160), Sanu (170), Sanders (127)
Not super high on Drake, but he has a decent amount of upside for a 6th round RB, tends to go around Cohen and White. Those players are ~8 rounds later.
Elevencents
Footballguy
I’m pulling names directly from the last mock I did. I don’t know why everyone thinks I’m lying. Didn’t think it was necessary to post screenshots. Again, this is my experience. My mocks. If it doesn’t align with yours that’s fine but don’t tell me I’m lying.
But since few play in IDP leagues and everyone has similar mocks that are different from mine I’ll refrain from commenting further.
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Not calling you a liar. Just looking out for you and possibly others who may think they can get Drake that late in a real draft.
While I think very little of Ballage myself, I'd bet my house that Drake doesn't see 80% of Dolphins RB touches. He isn't that type of RB, and frankly, there are probably only 3-4 RB's in the NFL who will see that type of workload. McCaffrey, Barkley, Elliott if he shows, and maybe Bell. I'm not super confident in those last 2 either.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
I've always found mocks useless. People make weird picks they would never make in a real draft just to try and look smart.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
I have a really tough time discerning how this is going to shake out between Drake and Ballage given reports out of camp. Drake seemed to be in a prime position but looks like the team is committed to an RBBC and Ballage has been playing hard in camp and even been cited to be in a position to be the lead back with Drake picking up later downs.
Too much risk to think that Drake could have RB1 upside IMHO, which is where the hype around Drake's potential was before camp opened.
Too much risk to think that Drake could have RB1 upside IMHO, which is where the hype around Drake's potential was before camp opened.
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Flores said he hopes he’s back tomorrow. Nothing definitive.
https://twitter.com/schadjoe/status/1161312756127195137?s=21
Read another tweet he limped off slowly.
Desperate for info, I went to rotowire. I apologize in advance & promise not to quote them again this year.
TripleThreat
Footballguy
https://twitter.com/chrisperk/status/1161283571254013952
video of him limping off... so you can play Dr
video of him limping off... so you can play Dr
cloppbeast
Footballguy
He might have got a bruise on his thigh, or worse somebody might have stepped on in his foot. Hopefully he avoids IR.
TripleThreat
Footballguy
Joe SchadVerified account @schadjoe 2m2 minutes ago
More
The good news regarding Miami Dolphins Kenyan Drake is, despite being in a walking boot, his injury is not considered structural. So it could be worse. #pbpost #pbpostsports #miamidolphins
0 replies2 retweets2 likes
More
The good news regarding Miami Dolphins Kenyan Drake is, despite being in a walking boot, his injury is not considered structural. So it could be worse. #pbpost #pbpostsports #miamidolphins
0 replies2 retweets2 likes
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Just signed a 4 year deal for $23.8M
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BobbyLayne
Footballguy
TRANSACTION: We have resigned HB Kenyan Drake to a 4 Year/$23.8M Deal
ASIDE - Twitter account must own Drake in Dynasty
ASIDE - Twitter account must own Drake in Dynasty
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TripleThreat
Footballguy
That's a fan account.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Here’s an actual report: out awhile... “hopeful” for week 1 https://twitter.com/armandosalguero/status/1161675361056382976?s=21
Meanwhile certain posters continue to call Ballage a plodder when he runs 22 mph.
Meanwhile certain posters continue to call Ballage a plodder when he runs 22 mph.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Cross post from the Ballage thread:
Looking like 2019 roles might be the same. Plodder (Ballage inheriting the Gore usage) on the early downs, Drake on third downs and when they’re behind.
Drake had a slight edge last year inside the 20.
Dolphins 2018 RZ Looks (target + rush att)
Ballage is an athletic guy. Doesn’t make people miss but give him enough runway he is really fast (something I’ve posted a few times in the Kalen thread.)
For all that he does not use his size to his advantage and goes down easily. Last year he averaged 3.3 YPC when you remove his 75 yarder versus the Vikings (opening play of the second half.) Does not have good vision or recognize lanes.
On the field he def looks like a plodder to me. Just leave a lot of yards out there by not leveraging his blockers angles. He just does not have that crisp one cut and go decisiveness in his tool belt. But he should get 120 carries this year.
Looking like 2019 roles might be the same. Plodder (Ballage inheriting the Gore usage) on the early downs, Drake on third downs and when they’re behind.
Drake had a slight edge last year inside the 20.
Dolphins 2018 RZ Looks (target + rush att)
Ballage is an athletic guy. Doesn’t make people miss but give him enough runway he is really fast (something I’ve posted a few times in the Kalen thread.)
For all that he does not use his size to his advantage and goes down easily. Last year he averaged 3.3 YPC when you remove his 75 yarder versus the Vikings (opening play of the second half.) Does not have good vision or recognize lanes.
On the field he def looks like a plodder to me. Just leave a lot of yards out there by not leveraging his blockers angles. He just does not have that crisp one cut and go decisiveness in his tool belt. But he should get 120 carries this year.
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This is essentially my take on Ballage as well. Out of curiosity what do you expect in terms of carries for Drake?
I really don't know what to make of this situation. Don't expect Drake to be a bellcow but the range of possibilities is wide. I could see Drake taking the James White role in this offense (100 carries with most of the RB targets), but considering Drake is imo the more elusive runner, I can also see up to 180 carries + most of the RB targets.
Unfortunately with Drakes recent injury it looks like we won't get much more clarity before the season starts.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
When I wrote out projections last month I think I had him down for 1100 and 6. 750-4 + 45-350-2, so 181 in full PPR. I put Ballage down for 600 & 3 with 15-20 catches. 120-480-3 / 15-120-0 would be 93 points.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
As far as clarity, we expected a time share, righ? Even amongst first/second round picks, Kamara, Conner, Chubb late in season, Gurley due to knee, and Williams are all in time shares. Dominant and clear cut, for sure, but still not true bell cows. Even Carolina would prefer lightening CMC’s load.
IDC where they end up on the depth chart, I think Drake will get the bulk of the touches. He’s more efficient and has more to offer.
But coaches & usage, man...
Who knows.
IDC where they end up on the depth chart, I think Drake will get the bulk of the touches. He’s more efficient and has more to offer.
But coaches & usage, man...
Who knows.
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From what I can tell, this is a minor injury and they are taking precaution with him. That would be an indicator that his role his stable and they don't need to evaluate him any further. I'm glad he will be a a little less expensive in upcoming drafts as my opinion on him hasn't changed.....he's either A) the pass catching back in an offense that will always be trailing and playing catchup or B) the every down back for same.
Does anyone see another scenario, barring injury? I don't care if Ballage is the starter or not because I'll still be happy to have Drake at flex and expect him to see the same success as last year in same role (Ballage instead of Gore) at worst. If I had to bet though I think he will be get 70% of the touches out of the backfield.
Does anyone see another scenario, barring injury? I don't care if Ballage is the starter or not because I'll still be happy to have Drake at flex and expect him to see the same success as last year in same role (Ballage instead of Gore) at worst. If I had to bet though I think he will be get 70% of the touches out of the backfield.
Drake can be effective even in a limited role. I was buying him at the “discount” (a more appropriate ADP, IMO) for best balls before this injury. There was also reports today of Flores gushing over the way Ballage practices. I know that’s BS coach speak when it comes down to it and performing in games matter but it could dictate early season PT.
Both sound reasonable. I have Drake down for 1200 and 7. Ballage I have for 970 and 8. TD's are a little high combined, but I do think that Miami will be better offensively this year and that they'll run a higher tempo than Gase did so there's also an uptick in volume. I have these 2 nearly splitting Carries with about 50 to Walton. Drake leading in targets but Ballage not as far behind as people think.
Definitely a time share. Also think Drake will out touch Ballage, just depending on how much will make the difference between Drake being a low RB1 vs. a high RB3.As far as clarity, we expected a time share, righ? Even amongst first/second round picks, Kamara, Conner, Chubb late in season, Gurley due to knee, and Williams are all in time shares. Dominant and clear cut, for sure, but still not true bell cows. Even Carolina would prefer lightening CMC’s load.
IDC where they end up on the depth chart, I think Drake will get the bulk of the touches. He’s more efficient and has more to offer.
But coaches & usage, man...
Who knows.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Right, the point I was making (perhaps not clearly enough) is there’s a timeshare in 80%+ of backfields. I don’t expect Drake to be volume dependent, he has a nice PPR floor.
Ya, exactly...give me the pass catching back in ppr on a team that will usually be playing catch up.
