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Post Draft Risers/Fallers (Non Rookies) (1 Viewer)

tone1oc

tone1oc

Footballguy
With the draft winding down I'd like to discuss the shakeup with some veterans around the league.  I'll start off with a few of the more under the radar names.. 

Risers:
Legarratte Blount (and Dion Lewis to a lesser degree) - Pats didn't draft any RBs, looks like Blount will have another year of fantasy utility as the Pats bruiser.
Chris Hogan - Pats added Malcolm Mitchell at WR, who has a far different skill set and will probably mean the Pats cut Amendola.  Also added 7th rounder Devin Lucien, who is a project and will take some time if he ever makes and impact.  Hogan has clear path to Pats #2 duties in 2016 as of now.
Terrell Watson - Browns had 200 draft picks and surprisingly didn't nab one RB.  Only underwhelming UDFA Crowell with no ties to current regime separate Hue Jackson's Bengals carry over Watson from a tremendous opportunity.
Torrey Smith/Deandre Smelter (and the rest of the SF WRs) -  Many thought they'd add WR talent earlier, they only used a 6th rounder to bring in Aaron Burbidge, who may not have a natural fit at the NFL level.   Plenty of volume should be in order in 2016.

Fallers:
Justin Forsett/Javorious Allen - Ravens got a steal in Ken Dixon falling to them at the bottom of the 4th (#134 overall), he fits perfectly with the ZBS, he very well could be a younger and more talented version of Forsett in 2014.
Kenny Stills - After anemic production in 2015, Dolphins brought in two speed guys and a favorite WR sleeper Carroo that could (should?) render him completely useless.  He's probably a safe drop in all formats at this point.
Jimmy Graham - For those holding out hopes that he'd beat the Patellar odds, I think the Seahawks 3rd round (#94 overall) investment in a more traditional TE Varrett signals they are moving on.
Brian Quick - Struggled to find an identity on a team lacking talent at WR in 2015, competition just got a lot stronger with Cooper & Good Michael Thomas in the mix.   

 

 
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I disagree on Forsett and Graham. Forsett realistically had only 1 FF relevant year left anyhow and I think he still has that.

The Ravens passing on all those RBs over and over again before one finally fell too far in almost the 5th round to me signals that they are fine with Forsett this year. Perhaps Dixon looks so good early on that they decide to roll with it but it certainly seems like they felt safe enough with Forsett to not invest heavily at the position despite multiple opportunities to do so. 

For Graham, I don't think a late 3rd round pick at a position where even the early guys are pretty useless for a year or two necessarily tells us anything. Teams have spent a lot more in the draft for insurance/fallback plans that they never ended up needing. If they had moved on from Graham they would have invested in one of the better FA TEs. 

 
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Risers

Ajayi - It was almost certain that the Fins were going to draft a back. The fact that the guy they took is a complimentary back and not a contender for early down work is a big win. 

Matt Jones - seemed like RB was a need for them. Apparently they're content with Jones. 

Fallers

CJ Anderson and Demarco Murray for obvious reasons. Maybe Stefon Diggs as well. 

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
I disagree on Forsett and Graham. Forsett realistically had only 1 FF relevant year left anyhow and I think he still has that.

The Ravens passing on all those RBs over and over again before one finally fell too far in almost the 5th round to me signals that they are fine with Forsett this year. Perhaps Dixon looks so good early on that they decide to roll with it but it certainly seems like they felt safe enough with Forsett to not invest heavily at the position despite multiple opportunities to do so. 

For Graham, I don't think a late 3rd round pick at a position where even the early guys are pretty useless for a year or two necessarily tells us anything. Teams have spent a lot more in the draft for insurance/fallback plans that they never ended up needing. If they had moved on from Graham they would have invested in one of the better FA TEs. 
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I can see your point with Forsett, perhaps a bit optimistic to think Dixon takes over right away, but part of that is my belief in Dixon's talent.   With regard to Graham, I think Vannett is a guy that can come in right away and contribute to the run game, I like his chances of getting snaps right away (albiet devoid of fantasy utility) and it signals to me a re focus of the role of the TE in that offense.  Both are very fair criticisms. 

 
Tate\Marvin Jones\Ebron. No additional influx of receiver talent this weekend for Detroit. All three will have plenty of opportunity in 2016.

 
Latavius Murray looks like he's in line for a lot of volume again this year. So much for the Raiders replacing him.......Deandre Washington is no threat.

 
Milkman said:
Latavius Murray looks like he's in line for a lot of volume again this year. So much for the Raiders replacing him.......Deandre Washington is no threat.
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This is one of the bigger surprises for me, thought for sure they'd get a RB in 2nd-4th.   Ajayi the other.

I think Arian Foster takes one of their jobs. 

 
Faller: Jarvis Landry. Landry got the ball 184 times last year (targets + carries), 4th most among all receivers (behind only Julio, Antonio, and DeAndre). The new coaching staff decided to take Carroo even though they got Parker & Stills last year, which is a sign that they don't want to keep feeding Landry that sort of volume.

 
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DeAndre Smelter was one of my favorite sleepers from the 2015 draft and the Niners did almost nothing to address the WR position, so maybe he can take Boldin's spot this season. Interesting opportunity there for him and Quinton Patton. I would be looking to get Smelter on all of my startup teams if I were joining any new leagues this year. Cheap gamble with some upside.

 
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ZWK said:
Faller: Jarvis Landry. Landry got the ball 184 times last year (targets + carries), 4th most among all receivers (behind only Julio, Antonio, and DeAndre). The new coaching staff decided to take Carroo even though they got Parker & Stills last year, which is a sign that they don't want to keep feeding Landry that sort of volume.
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Good one.. I don't see how he gets 130 targets unless Parker busts big time.  

Just for shizangiggles--  Jarvis Landry stat line based on 120 targets at career efficiency:  83rec/829yds/3.8TDs

Oof

 
EBF said:
DeAndre Smelter was one of my favorite sleepers from the 2015 draft and the Niners did almost nothing to address the WR position, so maybe he can take Boldin's spot this season. Interesting opportunity there for him and Quinton Patton. I would be looking to get Smelter on all of my startup teams if I were joining any new leagues this year. Cheap gamble with some upside.
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Don't forget about Bruce Ellington, I'm going to be casting a wide net with SF WRs, who all are very well priced.

 
They're all a little different (Ellington/Patton/Smelter). I sort of liked Ellington and Patton out of college, but I think Smelter has the best potential of the trio. He is big and strong with a good possession game.

 
EBF said:
DeAndre Smelter was one of my favorite sleepers from the 2015 draft and the Niners did almost nothing to address the WR position, so maybe he can take Boldin's spot this season. Interesting opportunity there for him and Quinton Patton. I would be looking to get Smelter on all of my startup teams if I were joining any new leagues this year. Cheap gamble with some upside.
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Wish they had a QB.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Risers

Ajayi - It was almost certain that the Fins were going to draft a back. The fact that the guy they took is a complimentary back and not a contender for early down work is a big win. 

Matt Jones - seemed like RB was a need for them. Apparently they're content with Jones. 

Fallers

CJ Anderson and Demarco Murray for obvious reasons. Maybe Stefon Diggs as well. 
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What's the obvious reason for CJ Anderson?  A late 4th round RB (and 7th off the board)?

 
Going obscure, but how about Funchess?  Carolina went all D this draft except for the 2nd last pick of the draft.

 
I was actually going to mention Stephen Hill.  He's going to have one more shot at relevance. 

Looks like the 49ers added Devin Cajuste, they are chock with intriguing young talent at WR/TE, which Cajuste could play either

 
Risers:

Marvin Jones

Matt Jones

Ryan Mathews

Sammie Coates

DGB/Wright - hunch that Tennessee offense takes major step forward

Any Jaguar

Latavius Murray

Fallers:

Landry or Parker? Stills was already an afterthought,  wasn't he?

Beckham Jr if Shepard steals some splash points, perhaps a healthy Cruz as well. 

Demarco Murray. I guess. I like the Titans to do well, but it's gotta be a RBBC with Henry, right? 

 
I don't know about Matt Jones being a riser. Washington added a first round WR so now they have a solid stable of Desean, Garçon, Doctson, Crowder and Reed. Seems they're going to be focused on moving the ball through the air. And Keith Marshall may be in the mix more than we might expect too. 

Cousins might be a riser.

 
barackdhouse said:
Risers:

Marvin Jones

Matt Jones

Ryan Mathews

Sammie Coates

DGB/Wright - hunch that Tennessee offense takes major step forward

Any Jaguar

Latavius Murray

Fallers:

Landry or Parker? Stills was already an afterthought,  wasn't he?

Beckham Jr if Shepard steals some splash points, perhaps a healthy Cruz as well. 

Demarco Murray. I guess. I like the Titans to do well, but it's gotta be a RBBC with Henry, right? 
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Parker as a faller b/c Miami took a wr in the 3rd round? That's rather absurd.

 
Mister CIA said:
Jaguar Defense is a riser. It felt like thievery when I grabbed them off the waiver wire yesterday.
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This is, by far, is the best answer. That defense could be a force in years to come.

On topic, I think Eddie Lacy should get a bump. No action in free agency or in the draft plus they added o-lineman depth in the second. Contract year Eddie will get his shot to try and get paid

 
tone1oc said:
This is one of the bigger surprises for me, thought for sure they'd get a RB in 2nd-4th.   Ajayi the other.

I think Arian Foster takes one of their jobs. 
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There's also going to be some RBs getting released to fill in. Maybe McFadden.

 
There are some teams with real long term needs at RB which is great because we could have 4 first round backs next year. Hopefully they end up in the right spots. 

 
Mister CIA said:
Jaguar Defense is a riser. It felt like thievery when I grabbed them off the waiver wire yesterday.
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Not hating this take, you are right.  I just don't roster defenses during the offseason unless there are 28 or 30 man rosters or very elite.. I'd much rather stream and use the roster spots for fliers.  

 
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tone1oc said:
I'm going to be going after a lot of CJA and Rawls shares.. 
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Me too. Booker doesn't really scare me at all. He may siphon off some passing down work, but I think CJA is locked and loaded as an RB1 this year. Not EVERY mid or late round RB that is drafted is going to take over the starting role for their team, quite the opposite actually. DEN had a pretty big need at the RB position behind Anderson. They brought Hillman back on a one year deal because of their lack of depth. Who else did the Broncos have, Thompson/Bibbs? Obviously they needed to address the position, but I don't see Booker as a threat to Anderson.

 
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I think Karlos Williams is a faller.  Jonathan Williams might be one of the most talented RBs in this class and the new hier apparent to McCoy.

I do think the current Lions WR and TE are all risers.

Ajayi is the obvious big riser.

Disagree on CJA.  They just spent a ton on him.  Booker is a Hillman replacement.

Hyde is a riser after they added a great run blocking guard.

One of Garcon or DJax just lost all fantasy relevance.

Any current Houston receiver not named Hopkins is probably a faller.

Luck and even Gore are probably risers after they added FOUR o lineman in Indy.

Allen and Taliferio probably dropped off a cliff after the addition of Dixon.

Vincent Jackson?, after they did not add a WR.

The Bengals D are risers after giving Geno Atkins an inside partner and a ball hawk CB.

All the Giants current RBs are fallers after one more RB is added to that currently headless committee.

 
A very under the radar riser for me is Mohamed Sanu. ATL paid him like a #2 WR and I believed they planned on using him as one. The Falcons then don't draft a WR until the 7th round. There's a lot of evidence that Sanu just might not be good, but he's in a primo situation IMO. Yes he already played across a stud in AJG while in CIN, but the ATL WR2 position is much more heavily utilized than CINs. Even if Sanu really just isn't very good, I think he could seriously stumble into a 1000 yard season this year.

 
Brisco54 said:
I think Karlos Williams is a faller.  Jonathan Williams might be one of the most talented RBs in this class and the new hier apparent to McCoy.

I do think the current Lions WR and TE are all risers.

Ajayi is the obvious big riser.

Disagree on CJA.  They just spent a ton on him.  Booker is a Hillman replacement.

Hyde is a riser after they added a great run blocking guard.

One of Garcon or DJax just lost all fantasy relevance.

Any current Houston receiver not named Hopkins is probably a faller.

Luck and even Gore are probably risers after they added FOUR o lineman in Indy.

Allen and Taliferio probably dropped off a cliff after the addition of Dixon.

Vincent Jackson?, after they did not add a WR.

The Bengals D are risers after giving Geno Atkins an inside partner and a ball hawk CB.

All the Giants current RBs are fallers after one more RB is added to that currently headless committee.
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Disagree with you on these ones.

Karlos was phenomenal at times last year. I think drafting Jonathan is more about the injury issues both Karlos and Lesean had last year.

I think Hyde is a push or an incomplete. Their QB situation wasn't cleaned up at all and that is a huge drain on his value. If Kelly can get Kaep on board and playing at an acceptable level, then I agree with Hyde getting a bump.

V-Jax is near the end. Him getting injured last year really did him in because they started using Evans in the 1 receiver sets. Probably more of a bump to ASJ and Kenny Bell to me.

I was going to disagree with you on Gore but I will reserve judgment for the moment. Definitely love the O-line help (about time Indy) but the RBs on their roster reek of them trying to find a 3rd down back to take some of the load off Gore

 
BigTex said:
McFadden or Dunbar
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I assume they would save a lot more money by letting McFadden go. Plus, Dunbar has a unique skill set that could the team could still use. I know Elliot is a good receiver, but he's not Dunbar level good.

 
branch0095 said:
Me too. Booker doesn't really scare me at all. He may siphon off some passing down work, but I think CJA is locked and loaded as an RB1 this year. Not EVERY mid or late round RB that is drafted is going to take over the starting role for their team, quite the opposite actually. DEN had a pretty big need at the RB position behind Anderson. They brought Hillman back on a one year deal because of their lack of depth. Who else did the Broncos have, Thompson/Bibbs? Obviously they needed to address the position, but I don't see Booker as a threat to Anderson.
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I think it was gianmarco who had an excelllant post a few years ago that showed even second round RBs very rarely beat out the incumbents for carries. I was actually being a bit antagonistc in the thread a bit, trying to add a counterpoint view. It was very eye opening however and one that I'll always keep in mind.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I think it was gianmarco who had an excelllant post a few years ago that showed even second round RBs very rarely beat out the incumbents for carries. I was actually being a bit antagonistc in the thread a bit, trying to add a counterpoint view. It was very eye opening however and one that I'll always keep in mind.
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Here it is

 
barackdhouse said:
Risers:

Marvin Jones

Matt Jones

Ryan Mathews

Sammie Coates

DGB/Wright - hunch that Tennessee offense takes major step forward

Any Jaguar

Latavius Murray

Fallers:

Landry or Parker? Stills was already an afterthought,  wasn't he?

Beckham Jr if Shepard steals some splash points, perhaps a healthy Cruz as well. 

Demarco Murray. I guess. I like the Titans to do well, but it's gotta be a RBBC with Henry, right? 
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Not so sure on Murray.  His health is probably going to dictate a lot.  

 
Gotta think Langford rises after this draft.  Forte gone and just a short yardage back drafted.

 
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